TEDxSantaCruz
Roger McNamee: 6 ways to save the internet
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The next big shift is now, and it’s not what you think: Facebook is the new Windows; Google must be sacrificed. Tech investor Roger McNamee presents 6 bold ways to prepare for the next internet.
(Filmed at TEDxSantaCruz.)
Roger McNamee - Tech investor
Ten years from now we will interact with the internet in completely different ways. Roger McNamee identifies six changes that are already transforming the ways we consume and create content. Full bio
Ten years from now we will interact with the internet in completely different ways. Roger McNamee identifies six changes that are already transforming the ways we consume and create content. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:04
Have you ever been in the position
of watching Silicon Valley take off
of watching Silicon Valley take off
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你是否曾經有過這樣的經驗：
看到矽谷的起飛，
看到矽谷的起飛，
00:09
and wish that you had known
what was about to happen?
what was about to happen?
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心裡希望著，要是早點知道就好了？
00:14
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
我來這裡要和各位談的，
00:17
So, I'm here to talk about
what I think is going to be
what I think is going to be
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是我認為近十五年來，
00:20
the most intense disruption
of the technology world
of the technology world
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在科技界即將發生史上
最強烈的分崩離析。
最強烈的分崩離析。
00:26
that's occurred in the last 15 years.
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00:28
And I believe the end product of it
will be entirely about engagement.
will be entirely about engagement.
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而我相信其最終結果
將取決於我們的參與度。
將取決於我們的參與度。
00:34
In fact, I think it is possibly
a transformational change
a transformational change
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事實上，我認為這可能是
我們看待參與的方式的轉變。
00:38
in the way we're going
to think about engagement.
to think about engagement.
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00:41
So what would you do if you knew today
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你會怎麼做，
如果今天你知道了
00:47
that there was going to be
a major technology cycle
a major technology cycle
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科技界在接下來幾年
即將出現一個重大的循環，
即將出現一個重大的循環，
00:50
beginning in the next couple years,
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00:52
and that you could participate in it?
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而且你能夠參與其中，
00:54
What would you do?
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你會怎麼做？
00:56
(Audience) Jump in!
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（觀眾）跳進去！
00:57
So, this is the situation
in which I find myself:
in which I find myself:
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我現在處於這樣的情況當中：
01:01
I'm a professional investor
about half the day,
about half the day,
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一天中有半天的時間，
我是位專業投資者，
我是位專業投資者，
01:06
the daylight half.
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白天的那半天。
01:07
I was paying close attention earlier,
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早期我非常投入，
01:09
and I now know I need to have
10 hours sleep at night,
10 hours sleep at night,
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現在我知道我晚上
需要有十小時的睡眠，
需要有十小時的睡眠，
01:12
which is tricky, because last
night the show ended
night the show ended
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這很棘手，因為昨天
晚上節目結束的時間
晚上節目結束的時間
01:14
about 12:30, and so I was, I got --
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是 12:30 左右，所以我——
01:17
and that was in Santa Rosa,
so I got home a little late.
so I got home a little late.
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且地點是在聖羅莎，
所以我回到家就有點晚了。
所以我回到家就有點晚了。
01:21
I want you to understand,
I've been studying the technology world,
I've been studying the technology world,
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我希望各位能了解，
我一直在研究科技世界，
我一直在研究科技世界，
01:24
and things have already begun to change.
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而改變已經開始了。
01:26
But they're changing in ways
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但這些改變，
01:28
that I see literally no
commentator referring to today.
commentator referring to today.
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我幾乎沒看到任何評論
在探討這些現象。
在探討這些現象。
01:32
There are six things going on
that I'm going to focus on.
that I'm going to focus on.
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我會聚焦在六件正在發生的事情上。
01:34
I want you to understand,
each one of these is a hypothesis;
each one of these is a hypothesis;
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我希望你們知道，
它們通通都只是假設；
它們通通都只是假設；
01:37
it is subject to revision.
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有可能會再修正。
01:39
It may even be subject to elimination.
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也有可能會消失。
但我希望你們知道，
01:41
But I want you to understand
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我研究這些假設有十個月了，
01:43
I've been working with this group
of hypotheses now for about 10 months,
of hypotheses now for about 10 months,
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01:46
and what's really interesting
is that I've been exposing them
is that I've been exposing them
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真正有趣的是
我與許多科技人探討這些假設，
01:49
to a lot of people in the industry,
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01:51
and people have been finding it
very hard to debunk them.
very hard to debunk them.
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他們覺得很難反駁。
01:54
So I'm going to share them with you today,
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所以今天我要來與各位分享，
因我認為只要齊心協力
我們就有機會弄清楚。
我們就有機會弄清楚。
01:56
because I think collectively, we have
a chance of figuring this out.
a chance of figuring this out.
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01:59
The first thing -- and I think
this is fairly obvious --
this is fairly obvious --
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第一點，我認為很明顯，
02:02
is: Windows is dying.
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Windows 快不行了。
02:04
And --
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而且，
02:05
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
02:08
I mean no disrespect to Microsoft,
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我沒有對微軟不敬的意思，
02:10
because I think, in fact, Microsoft
as a company has many things it can do
as a company has many things it can do
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因為我認為，事實上
微軟這間公司能做很多事
微軟這間公司能做很多事
02:13
to maintain growth,
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來維持它的成長，
02:15
but desktops would not be one of them.
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但桌上型電腦並不是其中選項之一。
02:18
And the key indicator here,
and the only one you need to know
and the only one you need to know
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這裡的關鍵指標，
你們只需要了解這個指標
你們只需要了解這個指標
02:21
to understand what's going on here,
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就能了解發生了什麼事，
02:24
is that smartphones have
basically taken Windows
basically taken Windows
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這個指標就是：基本上
智慧手機已經取代了 Windows，
智慧手機已經取代了 Windows，
02:29
from 96% of internet-connected
devices 3 or 4 years ago,
devices 3 or 4 years ago,
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三 、四年前，連上網路的裝置
有 96% 是 Windows 的，
有 96% 是 Windows 的，
02:34
to under 50% now.
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現在不到 50% 了。
02:36
And it is falling precipitously;
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這個數字還在猛跌；
02:37
they'll be under 30 percent,
probably about a year and a half from now.
probably about a year and a half from now.
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可能在一年半內，
就會落到 30% 以下。
就會落到 30% 以下。
02:42
Microsoft has lots of things it can do.
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微軟能做的事很多。
02:44
It can retreat to Exchange
and crank the price there.
and crank the price there.
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他們可以退回去做
Exchange，並調高價格。
Exchange，並調高價格。
02:47
But the reason this is so significant
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但，這意義如此重大的原因，
02:49
is that Windows and Enterprise
software, which is related to it --
software, which is related to it --
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是因為 Windows 和
與其相關的企業版軟體——
與其相關的企業版軟體——
想想類似 SAP 這樣的公司——
02:53
think SAP and people like that --
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02:55
those businesses account for hundreds
of billions of dollars in revenue.
of billions of dollars in revenue.
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這些企業每年的收益
有數千億美元。
有數千億美元。
03:00
And I'm suggesting we're going to have
a jump ball for that revenue.
a jump ball for that revenue.
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我建議我們要重新
訂定市場的遊戲規則。
訂定市場的遊戲規則。
03:03
And in a world where the US economy
is not growing that rapidly,
is not growing that rapidly,
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在美國經濟沒有成長
那麼快速的情況下，
那麼快速的情況下，
03:08
having somebody go away is the simplest
way to create room for new industries.
way to create room for new industries.
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若要為新產業創造獲利空間，
最簡單的方法就是淘汰某些公司。
最簡單的方法就是淘汰某些公司。
03:13
And this is where the revenues
are going to come from.
are going to come from.
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這樣就會有收益的來源。
03:16
But guess what? Like a Ginsu
knife commercial, there's more!
knife commercial, there's more!
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但你們猜猜怎樣？就像 Ginsu
刀具廣告說的一樣，還不只如此！
刀具廣告說的一樣，還不只如此！
03:20
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
03:21
It turns out Microsoft
is not the only company
is not the only company
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結果發現，現今微軟並不是
唯一一間橫躺在鐵軌上的公司。
03:25
whose body is lying
across the railroad tracks today.
across the railroad tracks today.
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03:29
Another one is Google.
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另一間是 Google。
03:32
Now, you may not have focused on this,
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你們可能沒聚焦這點，
03:35
but index search accounted for
90% of all search volume
90% of all search volume
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但，所有搜尋量當中
有 90% 是索引搜尋，
有 90% 是索引搜尋，
03:39
about 4 years ago.
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這是四年前的數據。
03:42
But an interesting thing happened.
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但發生了一件有趣的事，
Google 可能太成功了，
Google 可能太成功了，
03:43
Google got to be so successful
that the index became full of garbage.
that the index became full of garbage.
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結果讓索引出來的東西
充滿了垃圾。
充滿了垃圾。
03:49
In fact, the entire Web
has become full of garbage.
has become full of garbage.
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事實上，整個 Web 生態到處都是垃圾。
03:54
If you think about it, the Web has become
almost a digital Detroit.
almost a digital Detroit.
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你仔細想想，整個 Web 生態
幾乎變成了數位的底特律。
幾乎變成了數位的底特律。
03:57
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
03:58
If you look hard enough,
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如果你用心找，
04:00
you can find really
compelling things there.
compelling things there.
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你可能還能找到很棒的東西。
04:04
But if you aren't really careful,
you can get mugged.
you can get mugged.
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但如果不小心，
你可能也會被洗劫一番。
你可能也會被洗劫一番。
04:07
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
04:09
And it is no shock
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這並不意外，
04:10
that each one of us
and everyone else out there
and everyone else out there
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我們在場的每個人
以及外面的所有人，
以及外面的所有人，
04:13
have looked for other ways to find
the things we want to find.
the things we want to find.
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都曾尋求其他方式
來找我們要找的東西。
來找我們要找的東西。
04:17
We started with Wikipedia,
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我們從維基百科開始，
04:18
but then Facebook came along
for matters of taste and money;
for matters of taste and money;
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接著出現臉書做品味和錢的事；
04:22
Twitter came along for real-time news;
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推特出現了，做即時新聞；
04:24
LinkedIn, for professional things;
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領英出現了，做專業的事；
04:26
Match.com, for less professional things;
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Match.com 出現了，
做比較不專業的事；
做比較不專業的事；
04:29
TripAdvisor for travel,
Yelp for restaurants,
Yelp for restaurants,
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TripAdvisor 處理旅行，
Yelp 處理餐廳，
Yelp 處理餐廳，
04:31
Realtor.com for finding a home,
Dictionary.com for words,
Dictionary.com for words,
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Realtor.com 找房子，
Dictionary.com 查單字，
Dictionary.com 查單字，
04:36
Wordnik for the whole language.
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Wordnik 則包了所有的語言。
04:38
So the thing has really changed.
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一切真的改變了。
04:40
And here's what's interesting:
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有趣的是：
04:41
like Microsoft, Google has
plenty of ways to respond
plenty of ways to respond
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和微軟一樣，Google
在事業成長方面
在事業成長方面
也有很多方式可以應對。
04:44
in terms of growing its business.
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04:46
But what it cannot do
is recover its position
is recover its position
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但它做不到的就是
重新取得它在網際網路上的龍頭地位。
04:50
as the dominant player on the internet.
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04:52
It is my belief that when
Google came along in 1998,
Google came along in 1998,
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我確信 Google 在 1998 年出現時
04:56
the internet was an open-source,
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網際網路是個原始碼開放，
04:59
long-tail world with no leader.
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有眾多小量產品（長尾 long-tail）
而無人主導的世界。
而無人主導的世界。
05:02
And Google stepped into this void,
provided leadership
provided leadership
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Google 踏入這空間，成了領導，
05:05
and implemented a strategy
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導入了一項策略，
05:07
that systematically commoditized
all forms of content.
all forms of content.
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就是，系統性地將各種
形式的內容給商品化。
形式的內容給商品化。
05:11
And the simplest way to look at it
is to look at a Google results page:
is to look at a Google results page:
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最簡單的觀察方法，就是去看
Google 的搜尋結果頁：
Google 的搜尋結果頁：
Google 是網頁上唯一的 logo；
05:15
the only logo on that page is Google's;
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所有其它資訊都使用同樣的字體。
05:18
everything else is in the same font.
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05:21
That form of commoditization
has been tremendous for Google
has been tremendous for Google
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這種形式的商品化
使 Google 佔有巨大的優勢，
使 Google 佔有巨大的優勢，
05:24
and horrible for almost everyone else.
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幾乎所有其他的人卻很糟糕。
05:26
And I believe, to a first
order, it is over --
order, it is over --
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我相信基本上這情勢已然不再，
05:30
not because index search is going away,
but because, like word processing,
but because, like word processing,
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並不因為索引搜尋消失了，
而是就像過去的文字處理一樣，
05:34
it's gone from the most important
application we all had,
application we all had,
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它從我們最重要的應用
05:37
to just another thing we do.
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變成只是一種應用。
05:39
And you see this in mobile in particular.
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這情況在行動裝置上特別明顯，
05:42
Because in mobile, people have found
other ways to find what they want.
other ways to find what they want.
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因為人們已經在行動裝置上
找到得其所需的其他方式。
找到得其所需的其他方式。
05:46
Index search is too disruptive
on a cell phone,
on a cell phone,
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在手機上做索引搜尋太煩人了，
05:50
so the rate of index search
is a small fraction on cell phones
is a small fraction on cell phones
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所以，相較於桌上型電腦，
在手機上做索引搜尋的
比率只有一點點。
比率只有一點點。
05:53
to what it is on desktops.
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05:55
And that is the leading indicator
that Google's recovery, if you will,
that Google's recovery, if you will,
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可以說 Google 想要再次奪回
領導位置的重要指標
領導位置的重要指標
06:00
will be in something other than search.
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必然是搜尋以外的東西。
06:03
The third hypothesis I have
is no longer controversial,
is no longer controversial,
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我的第三項假設已經沒什麼爭議，
06:08
but it's important
to understand what happened.
to understand what happened.
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但了解發生了什麼事是很重要的，
06:10
If the left-hand side of this equation
is the open-source World Wide Web,
is the open-source World Wide Web,
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如果這個等式的左邊
是開放原始碼的全球資訊網，
是開放原始碼的全球資訊網，
06:14
with its belief in the long tail,
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有著長尾的信念，
06:16
its belief in an absence of regulation,
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相信不需要規範，
06:18
of an absence of security and control,
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沒有監管、控制，
06:20
it's really a frontier.
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實際上是個邊陲疆界。
06:22
Apple came along with a different vision.
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但 Apple 帶來不一樣的視野，
06:25
They said, "We think the Web is dead.
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說：「我們認為 Web 已死。
06:27
We're going to go on the internet,
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我們要站上網路，
那裡有巨型數位商店，
那裡有巨型數位商店，
06:28
because that's the big data store,
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我們要為您提供
有品牌的、貼心的、加值的、
有品牌的、貼心的、加值的、
06:30
and we're going to provide you
with branded, thoughtful, value-added,
with branded, thoughtful, value-added,
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版權受到保護的內容。」
06:35
copyright-protected content."
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06:39
And people have overwhelmingly chosen that
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人們壓倒性地轉換跑道
06:42
over Google's vision.
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離 Google 而去了。
06:44
Over the last three years,
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在過去三年，
06:45
Apple's gone from being
an also-ran in computers
an also-ran in computers
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Apple 在電腦界
已從後段班脫胎換骨，
已從後段班脫胎換骨，
06:49
to this year they will ship approximately
100 million internet-enabled devices.
100 million internet-enabled devices.
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今年他們的上網裝置出貨量
將會達到近一億台。
將會達到近一億台。
06:56
One hundred million.
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一億台。
06:58
They'll probably be just short of that.
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可能會稍微少一點。
07:01
The point here is, it's Apple's world.
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我要強調那是 Apple 的世界。
07:05
We're lucky to be part of it,
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我們很幸運能參與，
07:07
because Steve is quite intolerant
about who he lets in.
about who he lets in.
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因為賈伯斯不隨便讓人進來的。
07:10
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）但，想想這一點：
07:11
But think about this:
imagine Georgia in the Civil War. OK?
imagine Georgia in the Civil War. OK?
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想像一下內戰時的喬治亞州，好嗎？
07:15
Apple is Sherman,
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Apple 是謝爾曼將軍，
Web 是蔣斯頓將軍。
Web 是蔣斯頓將軍。
07:16
World Wide Web is Joe Johnston.
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07:18
And the point is, they've lost.
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重點是，蔣斯頓他們輸了。
07:20
So the Web is looking at this and going,
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所以，Web 看著這個情勢，說：
「老天，我們得重返。」
「老天，我們得重返。」
07:22
"My God, we've got to come back."
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07:24
And the cost in order to do this is
they have to sacrifice Google.
they have to sacrifice Google.
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重返就必須犧牲 Google。
07:29
So Google has pushed
the pendulum of technology
the pendulum of technology
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Google 已經把科技業的
商業利潤頂到極限，
商業利潤頂到極限，
07:32
to the absolute limit of commoditization,
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其誇張的程度已經讓那些
07:35
to the point where people
who spent their whole lives
who spent their whole lives
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一生投入開發真正有價值、
有娛樂性質節目的人，
有娛樂性質節目的人，
07:38
developing really valuable,
compelling entertainment
compelling entertainment
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07:41
and really valuable, compelling journalism
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寫出真正有價值、好看的
報章雜誌的人，
報章雜誌的人，
寫出真正有價值、
引人入勝小說的人，
引人入勝小說的人，
07:43
and really valuable, compelling novels,
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07:45
can't make money doing it anymore.
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已經無法賴以為生。
07:47
So the Web said, "OK,
if Google's over here, and Apple's here,
if Google's over here, and Apple's here,
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所以，Web 生態說：「好，如果
Google 在這裡，Apple 在這裡，
Google 在這裡，Apple 在這裡，
那麼下世代的網頁標準 HTML 5
將會與 Apple 抗衡。」
將會與 Apple 抗衡。」
07:52
HTML 5, the next generation, is going
to be on the other side of Apple."
to be on the other side of Apple."
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07:56
So the new battle, instead of being
commoditization versus the App Store,
commoditization versus the App Store,
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所以，新的戰役將不會是
商品化對抗 App Store，
商品化對抗 App Store，
07:59
is going to be between the App Store
and highly differentiated content.
and highly differentiated content.
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而會是 App Store 對抗
高度差異化的內容網頁。
高度差異化的內容網頁。
08:04
If you don't know what HTML 5 is,
let me help you understand.
let me help you understand.
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若各位不知道 HTML 5 是什麼，
讓我協助各位了解一下，
讓我協助各位了解一下，
08:07
It is a programming language.
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它是一種程式語言。
08:09
But it's a profound one.
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但它所帶來的衝擊是很大的。
08:12
Because for the first time,
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因為，這是第一次，
08:13
you're going to be able
to construct a web page
to construct a web page
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你所建立的網頁，
08:16
where the entire thing can have
embedded interactivity,
embedded interactivity,
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上面的所有東西
都有內建的互動性功能，
都有內建的互動性功能，
08:20
can have video, audio,
whatever it is that you want.
whatever it is that you want.
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可以有影片、聲音，
你要什麼就有什麼。
你要什麼就有什麼。
08:23
But no more Flash boxes.
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但不再需要 Flash 窗格。
08:26
And it's a huge, huge change,
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這是一項很大很大的改變，
08:28
because it essentially
opens up a new canvas.
opens up a new canvas.
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因為它基本上開啟了新的畫布。
08:30
And it doesn't just open it
up for The New York Times,
up for The New York Times,
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它不只是為《紐約時報》開啟，
08:33
it opens it up for everybody on WordPress,
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還為 WorldPress 的每個人開啟，
08:36
it opens it up for every band ...
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為每一個樂團開啟。
08:38
Because suddenly, the ability to produce
a differentiated, highly compelling,
a differentiated, highly compelling,
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因為，突然間，能夠產生出
差異化、誘人的、加值的，
08:43
value-added -- maybe
even monetizable -- product
even monetizable -- product
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甚至可獲利的產品的能力
08:46
will be there.
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即將在那裏出現。
08:48
And what's really interesting
is, thanks to Apple,
is, thanks to Apple,
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有趣的是，多虧了 Apple，
08:51
there's nothing that commoditizers
can do about you.
can do about you.
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商品化業者將對你束手無策。
08:55
Apple may try to stop us,
but I don't think they will.
but I don't think they will.
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Apple 可能會試圖阻止我們，
但我不認為他們會。
但我不認為他們會。
08:58
I think they're smarter than that.
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我認為他們沒那麼笨。
09:00
So the key point is, I don't know
where we're going to stop
where we're going to stop
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重點是我不知道當鐘擺擺回來時
我們會停在哪裡。
09:03
as the pendulum swings back.
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09:05
But I think the days
of hypercommoditization are behind us.
of hypercommoditization are behind us.
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但我認為，高度商品化的
日子已經過去了。
日子已經過去了。
09:09
And we can all play in this.
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我們都可以參一腳。
09:11
In a moment I'm going to tell you
how I'm doing it personally.
how I'm doing it personally.
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等一下我會告訴各位我自己怎麼做。
09:14
Tablets.
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平板電腦。
09:16
This is the other side
of why Windows is dead.
of why Windows is dead.
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這是為什麼 Windows
沒戲唱的另一個原因。
沒戲唱的另一個原因。
09:19
If any of you does not own an iPad --
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如果在座有任何人沒有 iPad ——
09:22
Look, I don't own any Apple stock,
so I have no axe in this,
so I have no axe in this,
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我並未持有 Apple 的股票，
所以我舉這例子沒有個人因素，
所以我舉這例子沒有個人因素，
09:25
but seriously, if you don't own an iPad,
you cannot possibly understand
you cannot possibly understand
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但，說真的，
如果你沒有 iPad 就不可能了解
現在正在發生的重要事情。
09:30
the most important things going on now.
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（笑聲）不，我是非常認真的。
09:32
(Laughter)
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1056
09:33
No, I'm really serious about this.
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我認為最重要的一點
09:34
And I think the most important point
is that the other players on this thing,
is that the other players on this thing,
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是在這個市場的其他玩家
09:38
at the moment,
195
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在此刻沒有任何影響力。
09:40
have made no impact.
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1261
09:42
And keep in mind,
197
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別忘了是我們的投資
09:43
it was our investment that built
Palm's webOS that HP's shipping
Palm's webOS that HP's shipping
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4639
致使有了 HP 發售的
Palm WebOS 裝置；
Palm WebOS 裝置；
09:48
soon, eventually, someday.
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那產品很快、瞬間就消失了。
09:50
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
09:52
I think it's highly probable
Apple wins this thing
Apple wins this thing
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我認為 Apple 非常有可能贏這場仗，
09:54
with market share closer
to what they have on the iPod
to what they have on the iPod
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市佔率會接近 iPod 的市佔率，
09:57
than to what they have on the iPhone.
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1960
而不是 iPhone 的市佔率。
10:00
That would be 70 or 80%.
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也就是約 70% 或 80%。
10:02
If that's right, Apple's going to be
50 to 100 billion dollars bigger
50 to 100 billion dollars bigger
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如果沒錯的話，幾年內，
Apple 將比現在
再成長 500~1000 億美金。
再成長 500~1000 億美金。
10:06
in a few years
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1157
10:07
than they are today.
207
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1151
10:09
And I literally don't see anybody
else even challenging them.
else even challenging them.
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我真的看不出來
有任何人能挑戰他們。
有任何人能挑戰他們。
10:13
It's really important to understand
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很重要的是，要了解
Apple 的成本結構
Apple 的成本結構
10:14
that Apple's cost structure is so
favorable relative to everybody else,
favorable relative to everybody else,
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相對於其他人，是很有優勢的，
幾乎是不可能想像
有任何手機業者，
有任何手機業者，
10:18
it's almost impossible to imagine
any of the cell phone guys,
any of the cell phone guys,
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特別是安卓業者，能追上來。
10:21
particularly Android guys, catching up.
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因為 Apple 的毛利
10:23
Because Apple's gross margins
exceed the retail price
exceed the retail price
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幾乎超過了所有安卓手機的零售價。
10:27
of almost every Android phone.
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10:30
Here is the one that I want
to leave you with
to leave you with
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最後我要跟各位分享，
10:33
as an investment idea, first and foremost.
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也是最重要的一個投資想法。
10:35
The mania on Wall Street is about social.
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華爾街的狂熱與社交有關。
10:37
Social is a sideshow.
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社交就是餘興節目。
10:40
And I say this as somebody whose fund
has most of its money in Facebook.
has most of its money in Facebook.
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3876
我說這句話的身分，
是個資金大部分都投入臉書的人。
是個資金大部分都投入臉書的人。
10:45
It is a one-off.
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就只發生一次。
10:47
This is not ...
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1515
這不是……
10:49
To borrow a phrase from Star Wars:
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借用《星際大戰》的說法：
10:52
this is not the mania
you are looking for.
you are looking for.
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這不是你在找尋的狂熱。
10:55
The one we're talking about will be
so much bigger than this.
so much bigger than this.
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3358
我們在談的狂熱，
比這還要大很多。
比這還要大很多。
10:59
Facebook has won.
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臉書已經獲勝。
11:00
It is the new Windows. OK?
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2631
它是新的 Windows。
11:03
A few other guys -- Twitter,
Yelp, Skype, LinkedIn --
Yelp, Skype, LinkedIn --
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4364
其它少數幾家——推特、
Yelp、Skype、領英——
Yelp、Skype、領英——
11:07
are building successful platforms
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3636
建立了成功的平台，
11:11
that are much smaller
than what Facebook has.
than what Facebook has.
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但比臉書的平台小很多。
他們會成功。
11:15
And they'll be successful.
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但其他想要湊一腳的人
都得要循著 Zynga 的模式，
都得要循著 Zynga 的模式，
11:16
But everybody else coming along is going
to have to follow the Zynga model.
to have to follow the Zynga model.
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他們得要讓自己
11:20
They're going to have to make themselves
subordinate to the platform of Facebook.
subordinate to the platform of Facebook.
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成為臉書平台的附屬品。
11:24
And Zynga's inability to build
anything successful off of Facebook,
anything successful off of Facebook,
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3521
Zynga 沒有能力在臉書以外
建立任何成功的產品，
建立任何成功的產品，
11:28
I think, is the key indicator
of why this platform is so powerful.
of why this platform is so powerful.
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我認為這就點出這個平台
為何如此強大的關鍵指標。
為何如此強大的關鍵指標。
所以，若你今天要在社交世界裡
建立新創公司，就把它建在臉書上，
建立新創公司，就把它建在臉書上，
11:32
So if you do a start-up today
in the social world,
in the social world,
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11:35
build it on top of Facebook.
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1337
這是我能給你的唯一建議。
11:36
It's the only piece of advice
I can give you.
I can give you.
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但最重要的建議是：忘掉社交。
11:38
But the most important piece
of advice is: forget social.
of advice is: forget social.
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2685
如今社交是一種特色，不是一個平台。
11:41
Social is now a feature,
it's not a platform.
it's not a platform.
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2169
11:43
So embed social,
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所以要嵌入社交，就像凱瑟琳說的：
11:44
the same way that Catherine said,
"Embed gamification into everything."
"Embed gamification into everything."
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「把每件事遊戲化。」
11:49
It's all about engagement.
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1548
因為一切與參與度有關。
11:52
The future is going to be different.
243
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未來會變得不一樣。
11:56
And the core question is:
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而核心問題是：
11:58
What are we all going to do about it?
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我們所有人打算怎麼做？
12:00
What I do is very simple:
I believe in full-contact investing.
I believe in full-contact investing.
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3776
我的做法非常簡單：
我相信全參與式的投資。
我相信全參與式的投資。
12:04
So I looked at HTML 5
about a year ago, and I said,
about a year ago, and I said,
247
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所以我在一年前
看了 HTML 5 之後說：
看了 HTML 5 之後說：
12:08
"This thing could be really important.
How do I find out?"
How do I find out?"
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「這東西將來會非常重要。
我如何知道的？」
我如何知道的？」
12:11
So my band, Moonalice,
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1580
我的樂團，Moonalice，
12:12
which, a couple years ago,
did an album with T Bone Burnett,
did an album with T Bone Burnett,
250
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2906
在幾年前和 T 本恩本內特
合作灌了一張專輯，
合作灌了一張專輯，
12:15
that we thought was going to be
a huge hit and blah, blah, blah ...
a huge hit and blah, blah, blah ...
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3431
我們認為會大賣之類的……
12:19
Well, we learned that nobody cared about
hippie music done by old folks, so --
hippie music done by old folks, so --
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我們學到的是：沒有人在乎
老人做的嬉皮音樂，所以——
老人做的嬉皮音樂，所以——
（笑聲）
12:23
(Laughter)
253
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1063
12:24
So we put it all onto the net,
went on Facebook and Twitter.
went on Facebook and Twitter.
254
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所以我們把整張專輯放上網，
放上臉書和推特。
放上臉書和推特。
12:27
We started doing things
called "Twittercasts,"
called "Twittercasts,"
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我們開始做所謂的「推特轉播」，
在推特上先散播現場轉播音樂會，
接著再播預先錄好的，
接著再播預先錄好的，
12:29
the first live concerts
and then prerecorded concerts,
and then prerecorded concerts,
256
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12:32
distributed over Twitter.
257
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1211
12:33
Then we started using live stream,
the same thing we're using here today,
the same thing we're using here today,
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3443
接著我們開始用現場直播，
就像我們今天在這裡做的，
就像我們今天在這裡做的，
將我們的演出做成
以網路為基礎的現場影片。
以網路為基礎的現場影片。
12:37
to do internet-based
live video of our shows.
live video of our shows.
259
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12:39
And then recently, we bought
a satellite network.
a satellite network.
260
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2861
接著，我們最近買了個衛星網路。
12:42
Why? 'Cause it cost less than three months
of what our manager used to cost.
of what our manager used to cost.
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為什麼？因為它的花費少於
我們雇用一個經理三個月。
我們雇用一個經理三個月。
12:46
(Laughter)
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1023
（笑聲）
12:47
And right now, we broadcast
every one of our shows --
every one of our shows --
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現在，我們的每一場
演出都會做轉播——
演出都會做轉播——
12:50
other than the U2 show --
264
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1357
除了 U2 的演出——
12:51
live, in HTML 5,
265
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是實況的，用 HTML 5，
12:54
via satellite,
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透過衛星，
12:56
in a system we totally control.
267
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使用我們能完全控制的系統。
12:59
We have an app that's about to ship
within the next month.
within the next month.
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我們有一個應用程式，
即將於下個月推出。
即將於下個月推出。
13:04
It's -- "app" is the wrong term;
our website is being upgraded to HTML 5.
our website is being upgraded to HTML 5.
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「應用程式」是個錯誤的用詞；
我們的網站已經升級為 HTML 5。
我們的網站已經升級為 HTML 5。
13:07
And in it, you will be able,
from any phone, anywhere,
from any phone, anywhere,
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你可以從任何手機、任何地方，
13:11
to play any song we've ever played live
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播放任何我們曾經
實況轉播過的歌曲，
實況轉播過的歌曲，
13:14
and view any live video that we have,
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也可以觀看我們的任何實況影片，
有 150 或 200 場。
有 150 或 200 場。
13:15
which is 150, 200 shows.
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13:18
Now, it cost practically
nothing to do this.
nothing to do this.
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實際上，我們做這些
幾乎是不用成本的。
幾乎是不用成本的。
13:22
And we're this teeny-weeny little band.
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且我們是個小小的樂團。
13:26
Now, I know more about technology
than most people,
than most people,
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我比大部分的人更懂科技，
13:28
but that's just because I know
more than most people who are 55.
more than most people who are 55.
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但，我只是比大部分
55 歲的人知道更多。
55 歲的人知道更多。
13:32
But people who are 18 to 20,
who live in this world,
who live in this world,
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但這個世界中 18 到 20 歲的人，
13:35
are going to be able
to use these platforms
to use these platforms
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將會應用這些平台，以不同的方式，
13:37
in music and everywhere else
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從根本上呈現音樂和其它東西。
13:39
in a fundamentally different way.
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我認為創意回來了。
13:42
I think creativity is coming back.
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13:44
Moonalice is something
that's built around that.
that's built around that.
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Moonalice 的建立
是以創意為中心的。
是以創意為中心的。
13:46
We have poster artists
for every single show.
for every single show.
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我們每一場演出都有海報藝術家。
13:49
We have photographers who work
every show, we have painters.
every show, we have painters.
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我們有攝影師拍攝
每一場演出，我們有畫家。
每一場演出，我們有畫家。
13:52
And the notion is, I believe
that creativity has been stifled,
that creativity has been stifled,
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概念是，我相信
創意已經被扼殺一陣子了，
創意已經被扼殺一陣子了，
13:56
not so much by technology,
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主兇不是科技，
13:58
but by the general deterioration
of American culture --
of American culture --
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而是普遍的美國文化的墮落現象——
各位應該知道，很多人不願被教育，
14:03
you know, people's unwillingness
to be educated,
to be educated,
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認為我們必須依靠儀式和信仰，
14:06
this notion that we have to fall back
on ritual and beliefs, instead of facts.
on ritual and beliefs, instead of facts.
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而不依靠事實的那種墮落現象。
14:12
But I think technology is finally
going to do us a favor.
going to do us a favor.
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但我認為科技終於幫得上忙了。
14:16
I think it's finally going to give us
the tools to make us independent.
the tools to make us independent.
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我認為科技終將給我們工具，
讓我們獨立。
14:20
And there's little glimmers, right?
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終於有點希望了，對吧？
我們看見了阿拉伯之春，
14:22
We see the Arab Spring
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14:24
and the impact that Twitter
and Facebook had.
and Facebook had.
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以及推特和臉書的影響。
14:28
Pretty exciting.
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很讓人興奮。
14:29
But imagine a world
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但，想像一個世界，
14:32
in which everything is an app.
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在這個世界中，
什麼都是應用程式。
什麼都是應用程式。
14:36
In HTML 5, digital Detroit
gets replaced by this thing
gets replaced by this thing
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在 HTML 5 中，
數位底特律被取代掉了，
數位底特律被取代掉了，
變成每則推特推文都是個應用程式，
14:40
where every tweet is an app,
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14:42
every advertisement
is an instance of a store.
is an instance of a store.
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每則廣告都是個商店的事例。
14:46
Think about what that means.
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想想看那有什麼意涵。
14:48
So instead of seeing an Amazon display ad,
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因此，不是看到亞馬遜的展示，
14:50
you see the store, say,
on the New York Times Book Review.
on the New York Times Book Review.
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而是看到該商店在
像是《紐約時報書評》上。
像是《紐約時報書評》上。
14:54
You can both create demand
and satisfy it in the same place.
and satisfy it in the same place.
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你可以在同一個地方
創造需求並滿足客戶。
創造需求並滿足客戶。
14:59
Why?
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為什麼？
15:00
Because that's better for everybody.
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因為那樣對每個人都比較好。
15:02
Saves time, increases engagement,
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省時間，增加參與度，
15:05
because it keeps you on the page.
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因為它能讓你一直留在網頁上。
15:07
We're going from a web of elevators,
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我們正在從 Web 生態的電梯，
15:10
where you go to different places,
and you go off sites and you lose people,
and you go off sites and you lose people,
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——電梯把你帶到目的地，
踏出電梯，人就不見了——
踏出電梯，人就不見了——
15:15
to a control panel model.
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轉變成主播台的模式。
15:17
And guess who's going to make it?
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猜猜這次的主角是誰？
15:19
You are.
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就是你。
15:21
Thank you very much.
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非常謝謝。
15:22
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Roger McNamee - Tech investorTen years from now we will interact with the internet in completely different ways. Roger McNamee identifies six changes that are already transforming the ways we consume and create content.
Why you should listen
Roger McNamee has been an investor in science and tech for close to 30 years. His 2004 book -- The New Normal: Opportunities in a Time of Great Risk -- offers business strategies based on the economic and technological trends that are defining this era. He also plays guitar and bass in the band Moonalice, a band known for its clever use of social media.
Roger McNamee | Speaker | TED.com