ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Daniel Pauly - Fisheries biologist
Daniel Pauly is the principal investigator at the Sea Around Us Project, which studies the impact of the world's fisheries on marine ecosystems. The software he's helped develop is used around the world to model and track the ocean.

Why you should listen

Daniel Pauly heads the Sea Around Us Project, based at the Fisheries Centre, at the University of British Columbia. Pauly has been a leader in conceptualizing and codeveloping software that’s used by ocean experts throughout the world. At the Sea Around Us and in his other work, he’s developing new ways to view complex ocean data.

Pauly’s work includes the Ecopath ecological/ecosystem modeling software suite; the massive FishBase, the online encyclopaedia of fishes; and, increasingly, the quantitative results of the Sea Around Us Project.

Read Mission Blue's interview with Daniel Pauly >>

More profile about the speaker
Daniel Pauly | Speaker | TED.com
Mission Blue Voyage

Daniel Pauly: The ocean's shifting baseline

丹尼爾.保立:海洋基準線的改變

Filmed:
254,411 views

在我們有生之年,海洋生態系統逐漸衰退,魚的平均長度逐漸變小可以證明這一點。而如同丹尼爾.保立在藍色任務演講描述的,每當海洋基準線下降,我們就稱它為新的「正常」基準線。什麼時候我們才會停止向下調整這個基準線?
- Fisheries biologist
Daniel Pauly is the principal investigator at the Sea Around Us Project, which studies the impact of the world's fisheries on marine ecosystems. The software he's helped develop is used around the world to model and track the ocean. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
I'm going to speak說話
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我將要談論
00:14
about a tiny, little idea理念.
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一個極細微的想法
00:17
And this is about shifting baseline底線.
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也就是關於海洋基準線的改變
00:21
And because the idea理念 can be explained解釋 in one minute分鐘,
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因為這個想法可在一分鐘就講完
00:25
I will tell you three stories故事 before
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所以我會先講三個故事
00:28
to fill in the time.
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來拖延時間
00:30
And the first story故事
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第一個故事
00:32
is about Charles查爾斯 Darwin達爾文, one of my heroes英雄.
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與我心目中的英雄達爾文有關
00:35
And he was here, as you well know, in '35.
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如你們所知,1835年他在加拉帕戈斯群島進行研究
00:38
And you'd think he was chasing finches,
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你們以為他在追蹤雀類
00:40
but he wasn't.
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但事實並非如此
00:42
He was actually其實 collecting蒐集 fish.
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其實他是在收集魚類
00:44
And he described描述 one of them
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有一個他紀錄為
00:46
as very "common共同."
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「常見」的物種
00:48
This was the sailfinsailfin grouper石斑魚.
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帆鰭石斑(sailfin grouper)
00:50
A big fishery漁業 was run on it
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這種魚一直都是漁獲量大宗
00:52
until直到 the '80s.
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至少在 1980 年代以前
00:55
Now the fish is on the IUCN世界自然保護聯盟 Red List名單.
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現在,這種魚已被列在世界自然保護聯盟的瀕危物種紅色名單
00:58
Now this story故事,
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這個故事
01:00
we have heard聽說 it lots of times
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我們已經在加拉帕戈斯群島和其他地方
01:03
on Galapagos加拉帕戈斯 and other places地方,
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聽過很多次
01:05
so there is nothing particular特定 about it.
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所以沒什麼特別的
01:08
But the point is, we still come to Galapagos加拉帕戈斯.
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但重點是,我們仍前往加拉帕戈斯群島
01:11
We still think it is pristine質樸.
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我們仍然認為它是原始的
01:14
The brochures宣傳冊 still say
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旅遊折頁也說
01:17
it is untouched不變.
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這裡的生態未曾改變
01:19
So what happens發生 here?
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所以到底發生什麼事了?
01:22
The second第二 story故事, also to illustrate說明 another另一個 concept概念,
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第二個故事,也可以用來說明另一個概念
01:25
is called shifting waistline腰圍.
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叫做腰圍變化
01:27
(Laughter笑聲)
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(大笑)
01:30
Because I was there in '71,
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我在 1971 年前往西非
01:32
studying研究 a lagoon潟湖 in West西 Africa非洲.
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研究一個潟湖
01:34
I was there because I grew成長 up in Europe歐洲
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我會到那裡去是因為我在歐洲長大
01:37
and I wanted later後來 to work in Africa非洲.
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希望之後能到非洲工作
01:39
And I thought I could blend混合 in.
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我想我可以融入那個地方
01:41
And I got a big sunburn曬斑,
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但我遭受嚴重的曬傷
01:43
and I was convinced相信 that I was really not from there.
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才明白原來自己並非來自那裡
01:46
This was my first sunburn曬斑.
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這是我第一次被曬傷
01:48
And the lagoon潟湖
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至於那個潟湖
01:51
was surrounded包圍 by palm棕櫚 trees樹木,
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四周被棕櫚樹圍繞
01:53
as you can see, and a few少數 mangrove紅樹.
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就像你們看到的,還有一些紅樹林
01:55
And it had tilapia羅非魚
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潟湖裡有吳郭魚(非洲鯽魚)
01:57
about 20 centimeters公分,
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體長大約二十公分
01:59
a species種類 of tilapia羅非魚 called blackchin薩羅 tilapia羅非魚.
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其中一種稱為黑頰非鯽
02:01
And the fisheries漁業 for this tilapia羅非魚
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這種非洲鯽魚漁業
02:03
sustained持續 lots of fish and they had a good time
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有段時期能維持大量捕撈,人們日子過的不錯
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and they earned more than average平均
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他們收入高於
02:08
in Ghana加納.
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迦納平均所得
02:10
When I went there 27 years年份 later後來,
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27 年後,我重訪當地
02:13
the fish had shrunk壓縮 to half of their size尺寸.
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卻發現這種魚的體型縮減了一半
02:16
They were maturing成熟 at five centimeters公分.
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成魚的長度只有五公分
02:18
They had been pushed genetically基因.
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牠們已受基因演化的推動而改變
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There were still fishes魚類.
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潟湖中仍有魚類
02:22
They were still kind of happy快樂.
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人們仍快樂地捕魚
02:24
And the fish also were happy快樂 to be there.
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魚也快樂地生活在那裡
02:29
So nothing has changed,
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什麼也沒變
02:31
but everything has changed.
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但其實一切都不同了
02:33
My third第三 little story故事
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第三個小故事
02:35
is that I was an accomplice同案犯
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是關於我如何變成
02:37
in the introduction介紹 of trawling拖網
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將拖網引進
02:39
in Southeast東南 Asia亞洲.
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東南亞的共犯
02:41
In the '70s -- well, beginning開始 in the '60s --
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在 70 年代,不,60 年代開始
02:44
Europe歐洲 did lots of development發展 projects項目.
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歐洲進行許多開發計畫
02:47
Fish development發展
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例如漁業開發
02:49
meant意味著 imposing威風 on countries國家
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其實就是對於
02:51
that had already已經 100,000 fishers漁民
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已有十萬漁民的國家施壓
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to impose強加 on them industrial產業 fishing釣魚.
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強迫他們進行工業化的捕漁方式
02:57
And this boat, quite相當 ugly醜陋,
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這艘醜醜的船
02:59
is called the Mutiara珍珠 4.
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名為「慕蒂亞拉4號」
03:01
And I went sailing帆船 on it,
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我搭乘這艘船出海
03:03
and we did surveys調查
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進行調查
03:06
throughout始終 the southern南部的 South China中國 sea
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範圍涵蓋南中國海的南部
03:09
and especially特別 the JavaJava的 Sea.
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特別是爪哇海
03:11
And what we caught抓住,
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我們對於當時所捕獲到的
03:13
we didn't have words for it.
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毫無概念
03:15
What we caught抓住, I know now,
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而我現在知道
03:18
is the bottom底部 of the sea.
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我們所捕獲的其實是海洋底層
03:20
And 90 percent百分 of our catch抓住
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我們撈到的東西
03:22
were sponges海綿,
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有九成是海綿
03:24
other animals動物 that are fixed固定 on the bottom底部.
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及其他附著於海底的動物
03:27
And actually其實 most of the fish,
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事實上大多數魚類
03:29
they are a little spot on the debris廢墟,
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只佔這些殘渣的極小部份
03:31
the piles of debris廢墟, were coral珊瑚 reef fish.
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堆積如山的殘骸中有一些珊瑚礁魚類
03:34
Essentially實質上 the bottom底部 of the sea came來了 onto the deck甲板
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基本上這等於將海底搬上甲板
03:36
and then was thrown拋出 down.
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然後隨意丟棄
03:38
And these pictures圖片 are extraordinary非凡
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這些圖片相當驚人
03:41
because this transition過渡 is very rapid快速.
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因為轉變非常快
03:44
Within a year, you do a survey調查
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你在一年內做了一項調查
03:47
and then commercial廣告 fishing釣魚 begins開始.
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然後開始進行商業性捕魚
03:49
The bottom底部 is transformed改造
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海底開始發生改變
03:51
from, in this case案件, a hard bottom底部 or soft柔軟的 coral珊瑚
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以這裡來說,一片堅硬的海底或軟質珊瑚
03:54
into a muddy mess食堂.
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變成一灘爛泥
03:57
This is a dead turtle.
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這是一隻死去的海龜
03:59
They were not eaten吃過, they were thrown拋出 away because they were dead.
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不是被捕食,而是因為已經死去便被丟棄
04:02
And one time we caught抓住 a live生活 one.
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有一次我們抓到一隻活的
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It was not drowned淹死的 yet然而.
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牠還沒被淹死
04:06
And then they wanted to kill it because it was good to eat.
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人們想把美味的海龜殺來吃
04:09
This mountain of debris廢墟
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這些堆積如山的殘骸
04:12
is actually其實 collected by fishers漁民
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是由漁民收集的
04:15
every一切 time they go
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每次出海
04:17
into an area that's never been fished捕魚.
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到尚未捕撈過的區域帶回來
04:19
But it's not documented記錄.
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但從未被記錄下來
04:21
We transform轉變 the world世界,
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我們改變了世界
04:23
but we don't remember記得 it.
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但卻不記得這些事
04:25
We adjust調整 our baseline底線
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我們調整基準線
04:28
to the new level水平,
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到新的水平
04:30
and we don't recall召回 what was there.
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但我們不記得過去曾經存在什麼
04:34
If you generalize概括 this,
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如果你將這些做個總結
04:36
something like this happens發生.
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就會像這樣
04:38
You have on the y axis some good thing:
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Y軸是一些正面的事情
04:41
biodiversity生物多樣性, numbers數字 of orcaORCA,
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生物多樣性、虎鯨個數
04:44
the greenness綠色 of your country國家, the water supply供應.
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國家的綠化程度、水資源供給
04:47
And over time it changes變化 --
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隨著時間推移
04:49
it changes變化
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情況發生改變
04:51
because people do things, or naturally自然.
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因為人們理所當然的行為而改變
04:53
Every一切 generation
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每一代的人們
04:55
will use the images圖片
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會用那些
04:57
that they got at the beginning開始 of their conscious意識 lives生活
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他們有感知的生命初始時的印象
05:00
as a standard標準
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作為基準
05:02
and will extrapolate推斷 forward前鋒.
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然後向前推論
05:04
And the difference區別 then,
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將其中差異
05:06
they perceive感知 as a loss失利.
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視為一項損失
05:08
But they don't perceive感知 what happened發生 before as a loss失利.
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但人們並沒有意識到在損失以前發生什麼事
05:11
You can have a succession演替 of changes變化.
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你可以看到一個持續的變化
05:13
At the end結束 you want to sustain支持
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到了最後你希望能保存
05:16
miserable leftovers殘羹剩飯.
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那些所剩無幾的剩餘物種
05:19
And that, to a large extent程度, is what we want to do now.
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就大方向來說,這就是我們正想做的
05:22
We want to sustain支持 things that are gone走了
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我們想保存已消失
05:25
or things that are not the way they were.
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或不復原貌的事物
05:29
Now one should think
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我們應該思考
05:31
this problem問題 affected受影響 people
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這個問題如何影響那些
05:33
certainly當然 when in predatory掠奪性 societies社會,
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在獵食性社會的人
05:37
they killed殺害 animals動物
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他們捕獵動物
05:39
and they didn't know they had doneDONE so
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而沒有意識到他們做了什麼
05:41
after a few少數 generations.
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對後幾個世代造成了什麼改變
05:43
Because, obviously明顯,
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因為,很明顯的
05:46
an animal動物 that is very abundant豐富,
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每個物種的數量總是相當龐大
05:51
before it gets得到 extinct絕種,
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在牠們遭到滅絕
05:54
it becomes rare罕見.
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變得稀有以前
05:57
So you don't lose失去 abundant豐富 animals動物.
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所以數量豐富的動物不會消失
06:00
You always lose失去 rare罕見 animals動物.
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會消失的總是稀有動物
06:02
And therefore因此 they're not perceived感知
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所以人們也不會意識到
06:04
as a big loss失利.
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這個巨大損失
06:06
Over time,
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某一段時期
06:08
we concentrate集中 on large animals動物,
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我們將注意力放在大型動物
06:10
and in a sea that means手段 the big fish.
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在海洋中這意味著大型魚類
06:12
They become成為 rarer罕見的 because we fish them.
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大魚因我們的捕撈而越來越稀少
06:15
Over time we have a few少數 fish left
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不久後,海裡只剩一點點魚
06:17
and we think this is the baseline底線.
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然後我們會以這個數量重訂基準線
06:20
And the question is,
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但問題是
06:22
why do people accept接受 this?
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為什麼人們可以接受這種觀點
06:27
Well because they don't know that it was different不同.
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那是因為人們無法區分其中的差異
06:30
And in fact事實, lots of people, scientists科學家們,
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事實上,很多人,尤其是科學家
06:33
will contest比賽 that it was really different不同.
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會爭論那差異是很大的
06:35
And they will contest比賽 this
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他們會如此爭論
06:37
because the evidence證據
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是因為以早期模式
06:39
presented呈現 in an earlier mode模式
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提出的證據
06:44
is not in the way
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並不是他們希望的
06:47
they would like the evidence證據 presented呈現.
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證據呈現方式
06:49
For example,
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例如
06:51
the anecdote軼事 that some present當下,
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有些軼事說
06:53
as Captain隊長 so-and-so誰誰
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船長某某人
06:55
observed觀察到的 lots of fish in this area
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曾在這個區域觀察到大量魚類
06:58
cannot不能 be used
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這樣的訊息無法被採用
07:00
or is usually平時 not utilized利用 by fishery漁業 scientists科學家們,
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或通常不會被魚類科學家採用
07:03
because it's not "scientific科學."
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因為那並不「科學」
07:05
So you have a situation情況
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所以現在的狀況是
07:07
where people don't know the past過去,
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人們對過去毫無所知
07:10
even though雖然 we live生活 in literate識字 societies社會,
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即使是生活在有文化的社會
07:13
because they don't trust相信
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因為他們不信任
07:15
the sources來源 of the past過去.
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過去的訊息來源
07:18
And hence於是, the enormous巨大 role角色
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因此,在這裡
07:21
that a marine海洋 protected保護 area can play.
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海洋保護區的角色就顯得很重要
07:23
Because with marine海洋 protected保護 areas,
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一但有了海洋保護區
07:26
we actually其實 recreate重建 the past過去.
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我們可以重現過去
07:30
We recreate重建 the past過去 that people cannot不能 conceive構想
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重現人們無法想像的過去
07:33
because the baseline底線 has shifted
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因為現在的基準線已經改變
07:35
and is extremely非常 low.
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轉移到極低的標準
07:37
That is for people
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這是為了讓可以
07:39
who can see a marine海洋 protected保護 area
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看見海洋保護區的人們
07:44
and who can benefit效益
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及藉由它提供的見識
07:46
from the insight眼光 that it provides提供,
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而獲益的人們
07:49
which哪一個 enables使 them to reset重啟 their baseline底線.
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使他們能重設他們的基準線
07:53
How about the people who can't do that
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對於那些沒有機會
07:55
because they have no access訪問 --
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接近保護區的人們
07:57
the people in the Midwest中西部 for example?
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例如住在美國中西部的人們呢?
08:00
There I think
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我認為
08:02
that the arts藝術 and film電影
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透過藝術和電影
08:04
can perhaps也許 fill the gap間隙,
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或許可以彌補空缺
08:06
and simulation模擬.
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甚至是模擬技術
08:08
This is a simulation模擬 of Chesapeake切薩皮克 Bay.
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這是柴斯比克灣的模擬圖
08:11
There were gray灰色 whales鯨魚 in Chesapeake切薩皮克 Bay a long time ago --
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顯示灰鯨在很久很久以前曾經生活在那裡
08:13
500 years年份 ago.
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大約五百年前
08:15
And you will have noticed注意到 that the hues色調 and tones
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然後你會發現這個色彩與色調
08:18
are like "Avatar阿凡達."
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跟「阿凡達」的世界很像
08:20
(Laughter笑聲)
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(大笑)
08:22
And if you think about "Avatar阿凡達,"
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讓我們想想「阿凡達」
08:24
if you think of why people were so touched感動 by it --
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思考為何大家會對它深受感動
08:27
never mind心神 the Pocahontas風中奇緣 story故事 --
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即使故事像風中奇緣一樣
08:31
why so touched感動 by the imagery意象?
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為何人們看到這些景象還是如此感動
08:35
Because it evokes喚起 something
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因為那喚起了人們
08:38
that in a sense has been lost丟失.
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對已經失去的事物的感受
08:40
And so my recommendation建議,
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所以我建議
08:42
it's the only one I will provide提供,
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我唯一要提供的建議是
08:44
is for Cameron卡梅倫 to do "Avatar阿凡達 IIII" underwater水下.
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請卡麥隆在水底拍阿凡達第二集
08:49
Thank you very much.
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謝謝各位
08:51
(Applause掌聲)
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(鼓掌)
Translated by Crystal Tu
Reviewed by Fuyuan Cheng

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Daniel Pauly - Fisheries biologist
Daniel Pauly is the principal investigator at the Sea Around Us Project, which studies the impact of the world's fisheries on marine ecosystems. The software he's helped develop is used around the world to model and track the ocean.

Why you should listen

Daniel Pauly heads the Sea Around Us Project, based at the Fisheries Centre, at the University of British Columbia. Pauly has been a leader in conceptualizing and codeveloping software that’s used by ocean experts throughout the world. At the Sea Around Us and in his other work, he’s developing new ways to view complex ocean data.

Pauly’s work includes the Ecopath ecological/ecosystem modeling software suite; the massive FishBase, the online encyclopaedia of fishes; and, increasingly, the quantitative results of the Sea Around Us Project.

Read Mission Blue's interview with Daniel Pauly >>

More profile about the speaker
Daniel Pauly | Speaker | TED.com