ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Adam Davidson - Journalist
Adam Davidson is the co-host and co-creator of "Planet Money," a weekly podcast and radio feature about the economy.

Why you should listen

Adam Davidson is co-founder and co-host of Planet Money, a co-production of NPR and This American Life. He also writes the weekly "It's the Economy" column for the New York Times Magazine. In two weekly podcasts, a blog, and regular features on Morning Edition, All Things Considered and This American Life, Planet Money helps listeners understand how dramatic economic change is impacting their lives. Planet Money also proves, every day, that substantive, intelligent economic reporting can be funny, engaging, and accessible to the non-expert.

His radio documentary on the housing crisis, "The Giant Pool of Money," which he co-reported and produced with Alex Blumberg, was named one of the top ten works of journalism of the decade by the Arthur L. Carter Journalism Institute at New York University. It was widely recognized as the clearest and most entertaining explanation of the roots of the financial crisis in any media. Davidson and Blumberg took the lessons they learned crafting "The Giant Pool of Money" to create Planet Money.

Before Planet Money, Davidson was International Business and Economics Correspondent for NPR. He traveled around the world to cover the global economy and pitched in during crises, such as reporting from Indonesia's Banda Aceh just after the tsunami, New Orleans post-Katrina, and Paris during the youth riots. Prior to coming to NPR, Davidson was Middle East correspondent for PRI's Marketplace. He spent a year in Baghdad, Iraq, from 2003 to 2004, producing award-winning reports on corruption in the US occupation.

More profile about the speaker
Adam Davidson | Speaker | TED.com
TEDSalon NY2012

Adam Davidson: What we learned from teetering on the fiscal cliff

亞當•戴維森: 我們在財政懸崖邊搖擺不定時所學到的事

Filmed:
811,545 views

2012年底,美國政治圈陷入了僵局-要如何面對明年就要到期的「財政懸崖」。多數人認為,這個議題只有兩黨間取得共識才能解決。(而世界也都非常關注)《金錢星球》主持人亞當•戴維森帶來了驚人的數據資料,此資料也顯示出可能解決問題的方法。
- Journalist
Adam Davidson is the co-host and co-creator of "Planet Money," a weekly podcast and radio feature about the economy. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:17
So a friend朋友 of mine who's誰是 a political政治 scientist科學家,
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我有個朋友是政治學家
00:19
he told me several一些 months個月 ago
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幾個月前 他告訴我
00:21
exactly究竟 what this month would be like.
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這個月大概是什麼光景
00:23
He said, you know, there's this fiscal cliff懸崖 coming未來,
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他說:「財政懸崖快來了。」
00:26
it's going to come at the beginning開始 of 2013.
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估計在 2013 年初到來
00:29
Both parties派對 absolutely絕對 need to resolve解決 it,
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兩黨都必須解決這問題
00:32
but neither也不 party派對 wants to be seen看到 as the first to resolve解決 it.
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但沒有一方願意先採取行動
00:35
Neither也不 party派對 has any incentive激勵 to solve解決 it a second第二 before it's due應有,
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也沒有一方想要在危機到來以前解決
00:39
so he said, December十二月, you're just going to see lots of
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所以他說,在十二月時你會看到一堆
00:42
angry憤怒 negotiations談判, negotiations談判 breaking破壞 apart距離,
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激烈爭執、協商破局
00:45
reports報告 of phone電話 calls電話 that aren't going well,
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一些在電話上相談不歡的報導
00:48
people saying nothing's什麼是 happening事件 at all,
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有人說什麼結果都沒有
00:50
and then sometime某時 around Christmas聖誕 or New Year's年份,
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到了聖誕節或是新年的時候
00:53
we're going to hear, "Okay, they resolved解決 everything."
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我們會聽說:「他們解決所有問題了。」
00:55
He told me that a few少數 months個月 ago. He said he's 98 percent百分 positive they're going to resolve解決 it,
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他幾個月前告訴我 他有98%的把握
他們會解決問題
01:00
and I got an email電子郵件 from him today今天 saying, all right,
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今天我收到他的電子郵件說
01:02
we're basically基本上 on track跟踪, but now I'm 80 percent百分 positive
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「好吧,大致上猜的沒錯
但現在我只有80%的把握
01:06
that they're going to resolve解決 it.
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他們會解決這件事情。」
01:08
And it made製作 me think. I love studying研究
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所以我開始思考,我喜歡研究
01:10
these moments瞬間 in American美國 history歷史
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美國歷史上這種分歧的時期
01:12
when there was this frenzy發狂 of partisan黨派 anger憤怒,
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不同黨派彼此爭論不休
01:16
that the economy經濟 was on the verge邊緣 of total collapse坍方.
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經濟正值崩盤的邊緣
01:19
The most famous著名 early battle戰鬥 was Alexander亞歷山大 Hamilton漢密爾頓
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早期最有名的爭論是
亞歷山大•漢彌爾頓
01:24
and Thomas托馬斯 Jefferson杰斐遜 over what the dollar美元 would be
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和湯瑪斯•傑弗遜對於美元會如何
01:27
and how it would be backed已備份 up, with Alexander亞歷山大 Hamilton漢密爾頓
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以及 該用什麼方式儲存而爭論
01:30
saying, "We need a central中央 bank銀行, the First Bank銀行 of the United聯合的 States狀態,
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亞歷山大•漢彌爾頓說
「我們需要一個中央銀行,美國第一銀行
01:33
or else其他 the dollar美元 will have no value.
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不然美元就毫無價值了」
01:35
This economy經濟 won't慣於 work,"
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湯瑪斯•傑弗遜則說
01:36
and Thomas托馬斯 Jefferson杰斐遜 saying, "The people won't慣於 trust相信 that.
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「這經濟體系行不通,人民不信這一套」
01:39
They just fought戰鬥 off a king國王. They're not going to accept接受 some central中央 authority權威."
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「他們才剛推翻一個王朝
才不會接受一個中央集權組織。」
01:42
This battle戰鬥 defined定義 the first 150 years年份 of the U.S. economy經濟,
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這個爭論奠定了美國前期
一百五十年的經濟
01:48
and at every一切 moment時刻, different不同 partisans游擊隊 saying,
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每一次,當不同黨派說
01:52
"Oh my God, the economy's經濟的 about to collapse坍方,"
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「老天,經濟要崩盤了。」
01:54
and the rest休息 of us just going about, spending開支 our bucks雄鹿
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有些人就開始盡情揮霍
01:56
on whatever隨你 it is we wanted to buy購買.
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把錢花在所有想買的東西上
01:59
To give you a quick primer底漆 on where we are,
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先來了解一下我們現在的處境
02:02
a quick refresher複習 on where we are.
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快速地回顧一下
02:04
So the fiscal cliff懸崖, I was told
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有人叫我別叫它財政懸崖
02:06
that that's too partisan黨派 a thing to say,
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因為黨派色彩太重
02:09
although雖然 I can't remember記得 which哪一個 party派對 it's supporting支持 or attacking進攻.
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我記不得 到底誰贊成誰反對
02:12
People say we should call it the fiscal slope,
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有人說 應該叫財政斜坡才對
02:14
or we should call it an austerity簡樸 crisis危機,
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或稱為緊縮危機
02:16
but then other people say, no, that's even more partisan黨派.
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但就有人反對 說這樣反而更不中立
02:19
So I just call it the self-imposed自我強加, self-destructive自我毀滅
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所以我乾脆叫它設立自我導致 自我毀滅
02:22
arbitrary隨意 deadline截止日期 about resolving解析 an inevitable必然 problem問題.
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沒有明確期限的方案
來解決不可避免的問題
02:26
And this is what the inevitable必然 problem問題 looks容貌 like.
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這就是一個不可避免的問題的真實模樣
02:30
So this is a projection投影 of U.S. debt債務 as a percentage百分比
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這是美國國債百分比圖
02:34
of our overall總體 economy經濟, of GDPGDP.
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佔整體經濟 國內生產毛額(GDP)的比例高低
02:37
The light blue藍色 dotted line represents代表
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藍色虛線代表
02:40
the Congressional國會 Budget預算 Office's辦公室 best最好 guess猜測
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國會預算局最樂觀的估計
02:42
of what will happen發生 if Congress國會 really doesn't do anything,
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如果國會什麼都沒做的情形
02:46
and as you can see, sometime某時 around 2027,
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可以看到 大概在2027年
02:50
we reach達到 Greek希臘語 levels水平 of debt債務,
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我們的債務會跟希臘有得拚
02:52
somewhere某處 around 130 percent百分 of GDPGDP,
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債務約佔GDP的130%
02:55
which哪一個 tells告訴 you that some time in the next下一個 20 years年份,
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顯示出未來20年內
02:58
if Congress國會 does absolutely絕對 nothing,
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如果國會什麼事都沒做
03:01
we're going to hit擊中 a moment時刻 where the world's世界 investors投資者,
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我們在國際上的地位會動搖
03:04
the world's世界 bond buyers買家, are going to say,
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全球的投資人 債券買家 將會說
03:06
"We don't trust相信 America美國 anymore. We're not going to lend them any money,
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「我們再也不信任美國人了 也不會借他們錢」
03:09
except at really high interest利益 rates利率."
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「除非利率真的夠高」
03:11
And at that moment時刻 our economy經濟 collapses崩潰.
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到時我們的經濟就崩盤了
03:14
But remember記得, Greece希臘 is there today今天.
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但記得 這是希臘現在的狀況
03:15
We're there in 20 years年份. We have lots and lots of time
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我們要過20年才會到那
我們有十分充裕的時間
03:19
to avoid避免 that crisis危機,
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來避免危機
03:22
and the fiscal cliff懸崖 was just one more attempt嘗試
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而財政懸崖 再次
03:25
at trying to force the two sides雙方 to resolve解決 the crisis危機.
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逼迫兩黨一起解決危機
03:29
Here's這裡的 another另一個 way to look at exactly究竟 the same相同 problem問題.
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其實可以換個角度來看同樣的問題
03:32
The dark黑暗 blue藍色 line is how much the government政府 spends.
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藍色實線是政府的開銷
03:35
The light blue藍色 line is how much the government政府 gets得到 in.
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淺藍色線是政府收入
03:39
And as you can see, for most of recent最近 history歷史,
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由此可見 近幾年來
03:41
except for a brief簡要 period, we have consistently始終如一 spent花費
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除了短暫的時期 我們一直
03:45
more than we take in. Thus從而 the national國民 debt債務.
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入不敷出 所以國債才會這麼高
03:48
But as you can also see, projected預計 going forward前鋒,
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但可以看出 隨著時間的增長
03:52
the gap間隙 widens擴大 a bit and raises加薪 a bit,
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收支的落差也越來越大
03:55
and this graph圖形 is only through通過 2021.
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這張圖只統計到2021年
03:57
It gets得到 really, really ugly醜陋 out towards 2030.
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到了2030年 數據會變得很難看
04:01
And this graph圖形 sort分類 of sums總和 up what the problem問題 is.
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從圖表中可以總結出問題所在
04:05
The Democrats民主黨, they say, well, this isn't a big deal合同.
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民主黨認為 這沒啥大不了
04:08
We can just raise提高 taxes a bit and close that gap間隙,
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只要稍微提高稅率 縮短收支差就好
04:12
especially特別 if we raise提高 taxes on the rich豐富.
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提高有錢人的賦稅尤其有效
04:14
The Republicans共和黨人 say, hey, no, no, we've我們已經 got a better idea理念.
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共和黨則說:「不
我們有更好的方法」
04:17
Why don't we lower降低 both lines?
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「為何不要讓兩種數據都降低?」
04:19
Why don't we lower降低 government政府 spending開支 and lower降低 government政府 taxes,
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「何不降低政府支出和賦稅?」
04:22
and then we'll be on an even more favorable有利
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如此一來 就有更完善的
04:26
long-term長期 deficit赤字 trajectory彈道?
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長期赤字規劃
04:28
And behind背後 this powerful強大 disagreement異議 between之間
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而在彼此爭論不休
04:33
how to close that gap間隙,
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該如何縮小收支差距的背後
04:35
there's the worst最差 kind of cynical憤世嫉俗的 party派對 politics政治,
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有種最糟 最憤世嫉俗的政黨政治
04:38
the worst最差 kind of insider內幕 baseball棒球, lobbying遊說, all of that stuff東東,
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最醜陋的內幕 遊說政治
等黑暗面
04:44
but there's also this powerfully有力 interesting有趣,
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但這場爭論也有非常有趣
04:48
respectful尊敬的 disagreement異議 between之間
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正大光明的一面
04:50
two fundamentally從根本上 different不同 economic經濟 philosophies哲學.
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因為這包含兩種截然不同
的經濟理念
04:54
And I like to think, when I picture圖片 how Republicans共和黨人
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而我希望 在我描繪出共和黨
04:59
see the economy經濟, what I picture圖片 is just some amazingly令人驚訝
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對經濟的看法時 所描出的只是
05:04
well-engineered精心設計的 machine, some perfect完善 machine.
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一台構造完整的機器 一台傑作
05:07
Unfortunately不幸, I picture圖片 it made製作 in Germany德國 or Japan日本,
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不幸的是 這是德國或曰本製
05:11
but this amazing驚人 machine that's constantly經常 scouring
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但這完美的機器不斷地侵蝕
05:14
every一切 bit of human人的 endeavor努力 and taking服用 resources資源,
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人類的每分努力並拿走資源
05:19
money, labor勞動, capital首都, machinery機械,
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錢財 勞工 資本和機械等
05:22
away from the least最小 productive生產的 parts部分 and towards the more productive生產的 parts部分,
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把它們從最沒生產力的部份
移到生產力最高的地方
05:26
and while this might威力 cause原因 temporary臨時 dislocation錯位,
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雖然會造成短暫的混亂
05:28
what it does is it builds建立 up the more productive生產的 areas
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卻能增強生產力較高的區塊
05:31
and lets讓我們 the less productive生產的 areas fade褪色 away and die,
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讓低生產力的區塊
慢慢地淘汰
05:34
and as a result結果 the whole整個 system系統 is so much more efficient高效,
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如此一來 整個系統就更有效率
05:37
so much richer更豐富 for everybody每個人.
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所以大家就更富有了
05:39
And this view視圖 generally通常 believes相信 that there is a role角色 for government政府,
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此觀點也認為政府佔有一席之地
05:43
a small role角色, to set the rules規則 so people aren't lying說謊
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一個訂定規則的小角色 以免人們
05:46
and cheating作弊 and hurting傷害 each other,
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說謊 欺騙及傷害彼此
05:48
maybe, you know, have a police警察 force and a fire department
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政府機關像是警察 消防隊
05:51
and an army軍隊, but to have a very limited有限 reach達到
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或軍隊等
但這些機關影響很有限
05:54
into the mechanisms機制 of this machinery機械.
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難以深入此機器內部
05:57
And when I picture圖片 how Democrats民主黨 and Democratic-leaning民主黨斜塔
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而當我描繪民主黨或偏民主黨
06:01
economists經濟學家 picture圖片 this economy經濟,
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經濟學家對此種經濟的看法時
06:04
most Democratic民主的 economists經濟學家 are, you know, they're capitalists資本家,
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大部份的民主黨派經濟學家是資本主義者
06:07
they believe, yes, that's a good system系統 a lot of the time.
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他們深信:「對 以目前情況來說
這是理想的體制」
06:10
It's good to let markets市場 move移動 resources資源 to their more productive生產的 use.
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讓市場自動把資源做有效的利用是很好
06:14
But that system系統 has tons of problems問題.
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但這體制有一大堆的問題
06:18
Wealth財富 piles up in the wrong錯誤 places地方.
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財富都聚集在不對的地方
06:20
Wealth財富 is ripped撕開 away from people who shouldn't不能 be called unproductive非生產性.
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那些被不當稱為沒有生產力的人們被剝奪了財富
06:24
That's not going to create創建 an equitable公平, fair公平 society社會.
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這樣沒法創造一個合理公平的社會
06:27
That machine doesn't care關心 about the environment環境,
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這種運作模式沒考慮到周遭環境
06:30
about racism種族主義, about all these issues問題
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例如種族歧視等負面議題
06:32
that make this life worse更差 for all of us,
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這些讓我們的生活更糟的問題
06:35
and so the government政府 does have a role角色 to take resources資源
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所以政府有義務從
06:38
from more productive生產的 uses使用, or from richer更豐富 sources來源,
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較高生產力或擁有較多資源的地方
06:41
and give them to other sources來源.
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將其資源分配給其它地方
06:44
And when you think about the economy經濟 through通過 these two different不同 lenses鏡頭,
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如果你用這兩種不同的觀點
來探討經濟的話
06:49
you understand理解 why this crisis危機 is so hard to solve解決,
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你就懂為何危機這麼難解決
06:53
because the worse更差 the crisis危機 gets得到, the higher更高 the stakes賭注 are,
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因為情況如果越嚴重
風險就越高
06:57
the more each side thinks they know the answer回答
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兩方都認為自己有解決之道
07:00
and the other side is just going to ruin廢墟 everything.
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並對彼此嗤之以鼻
07:03
And I can get really despairing絕望. I've spent花費 a lot
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我感到絕望
07:06
of the last few少數 years年份 really depressed鬱悶 about this,
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過去幾年 我對此感到沮喪
07:09
until直到 this year, I learned學到了 something that
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直到今年 我發現了一些使我非常興奮的事
07:12
I felt really excited興奮 about. I feel like it's really good news新聞,
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我認為這是很好的消息
07:16
and it's so shocking觸目驚心, I don't like saying it, because I think
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而且非常震撼 我不常談論它
07:19
people won't慣於 believe me.
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因為我覺得沒人會相信我的話
07:20
But here's這裡的 what I learned學到了.
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我所發現的是
07:21
The American美國 people, taken採取 as a whole整個,
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整體來說 當美國人
07:24
when it comes to these issues問題, to fiscal issues問題,
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遇到跟財政有關的問題時
07:27
are moderate中等, pragmatic務實 centrists中間派.
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就變成溫和 務實的中立派
07:31
And I know that's hard to believe, that the American美國 people
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沒錯 很不可思議 美國人
07:33
are moderate中等, pragmatic務實 centrists中間派.
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竟會是溫和 務實的中立派
07:35
But let me explain說明 what I'm thinking思維.
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但讓我解釋一下我的看法
07:37
When you look at how the federal聯邦 government政府 spends money,
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當你看看聯邦政府的支出比例
07:40
so this is the battle戰鬥 right here,
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這裡是問題所在
07:43
55 percent百分, more than half, is on Social社會 Security安全,
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55% 超過一半用在社會福利
07:46
Medicare醫保, Medicaid醫療補助, a few少數 other health健康 programs程式,
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醫療保險 醫療補助
及其他的健保
07:48
20 percent百分 defense防禦, 19 percent百分 discretionary,
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20%國防 19%自由支配支出
07:51
and six percent百分 interest利益.
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利息則是6%
07:53
So when we're talking about cutting切割 government政府 spending開支,
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所以我們在討論如何
減少政府支出時
07:58
this is the pie餡餅 we're talking about,
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就是看這統計圖
08:00
and Americans美國人 overwhelmingly壓倒性, and it doesn't matter
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絕大多數的美國人 無論
08:03
what party派對 they're in, overwhelmingly壓倒性 like
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支持哪一黨 大都喜歡
08:07
that big 55 percent百分 chunk.
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55%這一塊
08:09
They like Social社會 Security安全. They like Medicare醫保.
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他們喜歡社會福利 醫療健保
08:11
They even like Medicaid醫療補助, even though雖然 that goes to the poor較差的 and indigent貧困,
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甚至喜歡醫療補助 (低收入戶用)
即使這些支出只補助貧困的人
08:15
which哪一個 you might威力 think would have less support支持.
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你本來可能以為
醫療補助的支持度較低
08:17
And they do not want it fundamentally從根本上 touched感動,
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他們都不希望以上支出比例變動
08:21
although雖然 the American美國 people are remarkably異常 comfortable自在,
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雖然美國人民對此非常滿意
08:25
and Democrats民主黨 roughly大致 equal等於 to Republicans共和黨人,
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兩黨選民基本上意見一致
08:28
with some minor次要 tweaks調整 to make the system系統 more stable穩定.
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只要稍做調整 系統會更穩定
08:33
Social社會 Security安全 is fairly相當 easy簡單 to fix固定.
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社會福利很好調整
08:36
The rumors傳聞 of its demise讓位 are always greatly非常 exaggerated誇張的.
163
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社會福利會倒的謠言
往往都是誇大的說法
08:40
So gradually逐漸 raise提高 Social社會 Security安全 retirement退休 age年齡,
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所以對於把逐漸提高退休福利年齡的政策
08:42
maybe only on people not yet然而 born天生.
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加諸到未出世的下一代人的這個方法
08:44
Americans美國人 are about 50/50,
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不管是支持民主黨還是共和黨
08:47
whether是否 they're Democrats民主黨 or Republicans共和黨人.
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贊成和反對人數都差不多
08:49
Reduce減少 Medicare醫保 for very wealthy富裕 seniors老年人,
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減少高收入老人健保支出
08:51
seniors老年人 who make a lot of money. Don't even eliminate消除 it. Just reduce減少 it.
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就是給老富翁的福利金
根本不用廢除 減少即可
08:54
People generally通常 are comfortable自在 with it, Democrats民主黨 and Republicans共和黨人.
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人們大都接受這個政策
不管哪一黨的都如此認為
08:59
Raise提高 medical health健康 care關心 contributions捐款?
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提高健保費呢?
09:02
Everyone大家 hates that equally一樣, but Republicans共和黨人
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大家都恨死了此方法 可是共和黨
09:04
and Democrats民主黨 hate討厭 that together一起.
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和民主黨支持者都一致反對
09:07
And so what this tells告訴 me is, when you look at
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所以這個事實告訴我
09:10
the discussion討論 of how to resolve解決 our fiscal problems問題,
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當我們仔細探討 如何解決財政問題
09:14
we are not a nation國家 that's powerfully有力 divided分為 on the major重大的, major重大的 issue問題.
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我們的國民在主要議題方面並沒有意見分歧
09:21
We're comfortable自在 with it needing需要 some tweaks調整, but we want to keep it.
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做點改變的話我們能接受
但卻不想廢除整個系統
09:24
We're not open打開 to a discussion討論 of eliminating消除 it.
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不太可能去討論是否要廢除整個系統
09:27
Now there is one issue問題 that is hyper-partisan超黨派,
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針對一個議題 政黨的意見分歧非常嚴重
09:31
and where there is one party派對 that is just spend, spend, spend,
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有一黨說花錢消災就好
09:35
we don't care關心, spend some more,
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多花點錢無傷大雅
09:37
and that of course課程 is Republicans共和黨人
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這當然是共和黨對於
09:39
when it comes to military軍事 defense防禦 spending開支.
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減少國防預算的看法
09:41
They way outweigh超過 Democrats民主黨.
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他們的反對聲浪就比民主黨還強勢
09:43
The vast廣大 majority多數 want to protect保護 military軍事 defense防禦 spending開支.
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多數共和黨支持者贊成不改變國防支出
09:48
That's 20 percent百分 of the budget預算,
186
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國防支出佔了國家預算的20%
09:50
and that presents禮物 a more difficult issue問題.
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而它代表一個更複雜的議題
09:54
I should also note注意 that the [discretionary] spending開支,
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我也要提一下自由性支出的部份
09:57
which哪一個 is about 19 percent百分 of the budget預算,
189
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佔了預算的19%
09:59
that is Democratic民主的 and Republican共和黨人 issues問題,
190
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這是兩黨共同的議題
10:01
so you do have welfare福利, food餐飲 stamps郵票, other programs程式
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福利 食物券等種種福利制度
10:04
that tend趨向 to be popular流行 among其中 Democrats民主黨,
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在民主黨眼裡較受重視
10:06
but you also have the farm農場 bill法案 and all sorts排序 of Department of Interior室內
193
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但農田法案等以及
內政部的福利制度
10:09
inducements誘因 for oil drilling鑽孔 and other things,
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例如石油鑽探之類的
10:12
which哪一個 tend趨向 to be popular流行 among其中 Republicans共和黨人.
195
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就比較受共和黨青睞
10:15
Now when it comes to taxes, there is more disagreement異議.
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至於納稅方面 分歧就比較嚴重
10:19
That's a more partisan黨派 area.
197
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這方面黨派色彩比較嚴重
10:20
You have Democrats民主黨 overwhelmingly壓倒性 supportive支持
198
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民主黨民眾大力支持
10:24
of raising提高 the income收入 tax on people who make 250,000 dollars美元 a year,
199
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提高年收入25萬元以上
高收入族群的所得稅
10:28
Republicans共和黨人 sort分類 of against反對 it, although雖然 if you break打破 it out by income收入,
200
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共和黨支持者基本上是反對的
但如果用收入分開來看的話
10:33
Republicans共和黨人 who make less than 75,000 dollars美元 a year like this idea理念.
201
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年收入在7萬5以下的支持者
還滿喜歡這提議的
10:38
So basically基本上 Republicans共和黨人 who make more than 250,000 dollars美元 a year don't want to be taxed徵稅.
202
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也就是說 年收入高於25萬的
共和黨民眾不想多繳稅
10:42
Raising提高 taxes on investment投資 income收入, you also see
203
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提高投資所得稅 你也看得出
10:45
about two thirds三分之二 of Democrats民主黨 but only one third第三 of Republicans共和黨人
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贊成的人數 民主黨大約2/3
共和黨只有1/3
10:48
are comfortable自在 with that idea理念.
205
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3799
接受這個主意
10:52
This brings帶來 up a really important重要 point, which哪一個 is that
206
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3025
這反映出非常重要的迷思 就是
10:55
we tend趨向 in this country國家 to talk about Democrats民主黨
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在美國 我們往往只討論民主黨和共和黨
10:58
and Republicans共和黨人 and think there's this little group
208
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1811
剩下有一小部分的人
11:00
over there called independents獨立 that's, what, two percent百分?
209
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2365
也就是獨立派所組成 獨立派大概只有2%吧
11:02
If you add Democrats民主黨, you add Republicans共和黨人,
210
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2112
只要你把共和黨與民主黨支持者加起來
11:04
you've got the American美國 people.
211
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就等於全美國人民了
11:05
But that is not the case案件 at all.
212
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但事實並非如此
11:08
And it has not been the case案件 for most of modern現代 American美國 history歷史.
213
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5145
美國近代歷史裡也沒這樣的情況
11:14
Roughly大致 a third第三 of Americans美國人 say that they are Democrats民主黨.
214
658177
3817
大約有1/3的美國人說
他們支持民主黨
11:17
Around a quarter25美分硬幣 say that they are Republicans共和黨人.
215
661994
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大概1/4的人則說他們是共和黨的
11:20
A tiny little sliver裂片 call themselves他們自己 libertarians自由主義者, or socialists社會主義者,
216
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4480
另有一小區塊的人則傾向
是自由或社會主義黨
11:25
or some other small third第三 party派對,
217
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2687
或是支持其他小黨派
11:27
and the largest最大 block, 40 percent百分, say they're independents獨立.
218
672010
5207
而最大的區塊占了40% 這裡的人
認為自己是獨立派
11:33
So most Americans美國人 are not partisan黨派,
219
677217
2921
所以大多美國人都不特別支持哪一黨
11:36
and most of the people in the independent獨立 camp
220
680138
2168
大多屬於獨立陣營的人
11:38
fall秋季 somewhere某處 in between之間, so even though雖然 we have
221
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3691
都沒有偏向某一黨 即使我們
11:41
tremendous巨大 overlap交疊 between之間 the views意見 on these fiscal issues問題
222
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在這些財政議題上
從支持民主及共和黨的民眾來看
11:45
of Democrats民主黨 and Republicans共和黨人,
223
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2296
大家有很多一致的想法
11:47
we have even more overlap交疊 when you add in the independents獨立.
224
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3792
一旦你把獨立派的人加進來
就會有更多共同的想法
11:51
Now we get to fight鬥爭 about all sorts排序 of other issues問題.
225
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我們常常為其他問題起爭執
11:54
We get to hate討厭 each other on gun control控制
226
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2113
我們因為槍枝管制 而厭惡彼此
11:56
and abortion流產 and the environment環境,
227
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墮胎還有環境議題也是
11:59
but on these fiscal issues問題, these important重要 fiscal issues問題,
228
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2872
但講到財政問題時 重要的財政議題
12:02
we just are not anywhere隨地 nearly幾乎 as divided分為 as people say.
229
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3832
我們並沒有像其他人說的那樣
彼此意見不合
12:05
And in fact事實, there's this other group of people
230
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2032
事實上 有另外一群人
12:07
who are not as divided分為 as people might威力 think,
231
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3338
並沒有我們想像中
內部分裂的那麼嚴重
12:11
and that group is economists經濟學家.
232
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2013
那群人就是經濟學家
12:13
I talk to a lot of economists經濟學家, and back in the '70s
233
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5303
我跟很多經濟學家談過 在70年代
12:18
and '80s it was ugly醜陋 being存在 an economist經濟學家.
234
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3098
到80年代時 當經濟學家非常不好過
12:21
You were in what they called the saltwater鹽水 camp,
235
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3175
當時你會被貼上一個「鹹水學派」的標籤
12:24
meaning含義 Harvard哈佛, Princeton普林斯頓, MITMIT, Stanford斯坦福, Berkeley伯克利,
236
728941
4614
指的是哈佛 普林斯頓 麻省 史丹佛
柏克萊等學派
12:29
or you were in the freshwater淡水 camp, University大學 of Chicago芝加哥,
237
733555
2968
或者你被標為「淡水學派」 例如芝加哥大學
12:32
University大學 of Rochester羅切斯特.
238
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1452
羅徹斯特大學等派
12:33
You were a free自由 market市場 capitalist資本家 economist經濟學家
239
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2996
你可能是個支持市場資本主義的經濟學家
12:36
or you were a Keynesian凱恩斯 liberal自由主義的 economist經濟學家,
240
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2133
或是支持凱恩斯自由派主義的經濟學家
12:39
and these people didn't go to each other's其他 weddings婚禮,
241
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2175
這些人仇視到不去對方的婚禮
12:41
they snubbed冷落 each other at conferences會議.
242
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1892
在會議上也互不理睬
12:43
It's still ugly醜陋 to this day, but in my experience經驗,
243
747171
3009
現在還有這種醜陋面 但就我的經驗
12:46
it is really, really hard to find an economist經濟學家 under 40
244
750180
3601
真的 真的很難找到一個
不到40歲的經濟學家
12:49
who still has that kind of way of seeing眼看 the world世界.
245
753781
4024
有這種過時的世界觀
12:53
The vast廣大 majority多數 of economists經濟學家 -- it is so uncool
246
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2952
大多的經濟學家 如果稱自己是
12:56
to call yourself你自己 an ideologue空想家 of either camp.
247
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2841
某學派的擁護者 就遜掉了
12:59
The phrase短語 that you want, if you're a graduate畢業 student學生
248
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2521
什麼樣的稱謂才是你想要的
如果你是研究生
13:02
or a postdoc博士後 or you're a professor教授,
249
766119
2527
博士 或是教授
13:04
a 38-year-old-歲 economics經濟學 professor教授, is, "I'm an empiricist經驗主義.
250
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2977
一個38歲的經濟學教授會說:
「我是經驗主義者」
13:07
I go by the data數據."
251
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1544
「我只相信數據資料。」
13:09
And the data數據 is very clear明確.
252
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2404
而數據顯示非常清楚
13:11
None沒有 of these major重大的 theories理論 have been completely全然 successful成功.
253
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4021
沒有任何的理論真正成功過
13:15
The 20th century世紀, the last hundred years年份,
254
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1648
20世紀或過去一百年來
13:17
is riddled百病 with disastrous慘重 examples例子
255
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2951
有數不清的慘痛案例
13:20
of times that one school學校 or the other tried試著 to explain說明
256
784191
3672
過去有學派或其他人試圖分析
13:23
the past過去 or predict預測 the future未來
257
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2320
過去或預估未來經濟
13:26
and just did an awful可怕, awful可怕 job工作,
258
790183
1886
結果慘不忍睹
13:27
so the economics經濟學 profession職業 has acquired後天 some degree of modesty謙虛.
259
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5189
所以經濟學界變得比較謙虛了
13:33
They still are an awfully非常 arrogant傲慢 group of people, I will assure保證 you,
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797258
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我敢保證 他們的人還是
臭屁到不行
13:36
but they're now arrogant傲慢 about their impartiality公正性,
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800852
2877
但現在令他們自豪的是公正的態度
13:39
and they, too, see a tremendous巨大 range範圍 of potential潛在 outcomes結果.
262
803729
6791
而他們也看到未來
一片光明的極大潛能
13:46
And this nonpartisanshipnonpartisanship is something that exists存在,
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這樣無黨派立場的存在
13:51
that has existed存在 in secret秘密
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必須是不為人知的
13:53
in America美國 for years年份 and years年份 and years年份.
265
817359
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在美國好幾年來都是如此
13:54
I've spent花費 a lot of the fall秋季 talking to the three major重大的
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819075
3964
我大概整個秋天
都在跟美國三大
13:58
organizations組織 that survey調查 American美國 political政治 attitudes態度:
267
823039
3896
政治態度民調機構討論
14:02
Pew座位 Research研究,
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826935
1554
其中包括皮尤研究中心
14:04
the University大學 of Chicago's芝加哥 National國民 Opinion意見 Research研究 Center中央,
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芝加哥大學全國意見研究中心
14:08
and the most important重要 but the least最小 known已知
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832137
2848
還有最舉足輕重卻鮮為人知的
14:10
is the American美國 National國民 Election選舉 Studies學習 group
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美國選舉研究中心
14:13
that is the world's世界 longest最長, most respected尊敬 poll輪詢 of political政治 attitudes態度.
272
837960
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它是全世界歷史最悠久 最具公信力的
政治態度民調中心
14:18
They've他們已經 been doing it since以來 1948,
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842306
1962
從1948年就開始做調查
14:20
and what they show顯示 consistently始終如一 throughout始終
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844268
3487
調查中顯出一個共通點
14:23
is that it's almost幾乎 impossible不可能 to find Americans美國人
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就是美國幾乎找不到
14:28
who are consistent一貫 ideologically意識形態,
276
852202
3161
完全忠於某種主義的人
14:31
who consistently始終如一 support支持, "No we mustn't不得 tax,
277
855363
3736
始終認為:「不能課稅
14:34
and we must必須 limit限制 the size尺寸 of government政府,"
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859099
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我們要限制政府的權力範圍。」
14:37
or, "No, we must必須 encourage鼓勵 government政府 to play a larger role角色
279
861779
3700
或是「不 我們堅持政府
扮演要角
14:41
in redistribution再分配 and correcting修正 the ills弊病 of capitalism資本主義."
280
865479
3996
政府要重新分配資源並改掉
資本主義的壞毛病。」
14:45
Those groups are very, very small.
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869475
1878
這種群體少之又少
14:47
The vast廣大 majority多數 of people, they pick and choose選擇,
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871353
2996
大多數人都東挑西揀
14:50
they see compromise妥協 and they change更改 over time
283
874349
2564
找到折衷方案並在發現
14:52
when they hear a better argument論據 or a worse更差 argument論據.
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876913
2533
更好或更糟的論點時
改變立場
14:55
And that part部分 of it has not changed.
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這種現象一如往昔
14:58
What has changed is how people respond響應 to vague模糊 questions問題.
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882807
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改變的是人們回答
籠統問題的方式
15:02
If you ask people vague模糊 questions問題, like,
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886760
2598
如果你問別人籠統的問題 例如
15:05
"Do you think there should be more government政府 or less government政府?"
288
889358
2992
「你認為政府要多干涉還少干涉經濟?」
15:08
"Do you think government政府 should" — especially特別 if you use loaded language語言 --
289
892350
4314
「你認為政府應該...」尤其是
你用有偏見的方式去問時
15:12
"Do you think the government政府 should provide提供 handouts講義?"
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896664
2479
「你認為政府應該提供救濟金嗎?」
15:15
Or, "Do you think the government政府 should redistribute重新分配?"
291
899143
1929
或是「你認為政府應該重組嗎?」
15:16
Then you can see radical激進 partisan黨派 change更改.
292
901072
2601
如此你就會發現極端的政治立場
15:19
But when you get specific具體, when you actually其實 ask
293
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但若你再更具體一點 如果你問
15:22
about the actual實際 taxing徵稅 and spending開支 issues問題 under consideration考慮,
294
906367
4040
關於實際稅制與開銷等
值得注意的議題
15:26
people are remarkably異常 centrist中間派,
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910407
2608
人們很明顯地變中立
15:28
they're remarkably異常 open打開 to compromise妥協.
296
913015
2865
他們很樂意妥協
15:31
So what we have, then, when you think about the fiscal cliff懸崖,
297
915880
3785
所以以後談到政治懸崖的時候
15:35
don't think of it as the American美國 people fundamentally從根本上
298
919665
4526
別想說這是美國人民完全
15:40
can't stand each other on these issues問題
299
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2176
不能達成共識的議題
15:42
and that we must必須 be ripped撕開 apart距離
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926367
1555
而我們一定得選邊站
15:43
into two separate分離 warring交戰 nations國家.
301
927922
2322
把國家一分為二
15:46
Think of it as a tiny, tiny number of ancient economists經濟學家
302
930244
5926
應該想說這只是一小群
老不修的經濟學家
15:52
and misrepresentative虛假陳述 ideologues空想家 have captured捕獲 the process處理.
303
936170
3846
和不誠實的理論家利用了這個議題
15:55
And they've他們已經 captured捕獲 the process處理 through通過 familiar ways方法,
304
940016
2576
他們用似曾相似的方法
來利用這個爭議
15:58
through通過 a primary system系統 which哪一個 encourages鼓勵
305
942592
2952
用主要體系來慫恿
16:01
that small group of people's人們 voices聲音,
306
945544
2232
某一小群人發聲
16:03
because that small group of people,
307
947776
2105
因為那一小群人
16:05
the people who answer回答 all yesesyeses or all noes化整為零
308
949881
3072
那群對於思想面的問題
16:08
on those ideological思想 questions問題,
309
952953
2407
全部答是或否的激進份子
16:11
they might威力 be small but every一切 one of them has a blog博客,
310
955360
2607
他們可能是少數 但是每個人
都有一個部落格
16:13
every一切 one of them has been on Fox狐狸 or MSNBCMSNBC in the last week.
311
957967
3754
每個人上禮拜至少都上過
Fox或MSNBC的節目
16:17
Every一切 one of them becomes a louder and louder voice語音,
312
961721
3153
每個人說話的份量也越來越大
16:20
but they don't represent代表 us.
313
964874
2132
但他們不能代表我們
16:22
They don't represent代表 what our views意見 are.
314
967006
3101
他們的想法不代表就是我們的
16:26
And that gets得到 me back to the dollar美元,
315
970107
1806
這讓我回想到美元的問題
16:27
and it gets得到 me back to reminding提醒 myself that
316
971913
3225
我不禁回想 提醒自己說
16:31
we know this experience經驗.
317
975138
2010
我們有過類似經驗
16:33
We know what it's like
318
977148
1645
我們了解實際情況
16:34
to have these people on TV電視, in Congress國會,
319
978793
5355
那些在電視上 國會上的人
16:40
yelling大呼小叫 about how the end結束 of the world世界 is coming未來
320
984148
2727
威脅說如果我們
不全盤採納他們的意見
16:42
if we don't adopt採用 their view視圖 completely全然,
321
986875
3226
世界末日就會到來
16:46
because it's happened發生 about the dollar美元
322
990101
1994
因為從我們開始有美元以來
16:47
ever since以來 there's been a dollar美元.
323
992095
2003
他們一直是如此
16:49
We had the battle戰鬥 between之間 Jefferson杰斐遜 and Hamilton漢密爾頓.
324
994098
3894
傑佛遜和漢密爾頓的爭論也是如此
16:53
In 1913, we had this ugly醜陋 battle戰鬥 over the Federal聯邦 Reserve保留,
325
997992
4670
也就是1913年關於聯準會的那場惡鬥
16:58
when it was created創建, with vicious惡毒, angry憤怒 arguments參數
326
1002662
3874
成立聯準會時 掀起一股
惡毒憤怒的爭論
17:02
over how it would be constituted構成,
327
1006536
1872
吵著聯準會要如何組成
17:04
and a general一般 agreement協議 that the way it was constituted構成
328
1008408
1777
而多數人同意的組成方式
17:06
was the worst最差 possible可能 compromise妥協,
329
1010185
2907
其實是最糟的妥協辦法
17:08
a compromise妥協 guaranteed保證 to destroy破壞 this valuable有價值 thing,
330
1013092
3360
這個辦法絕對會瓦解一個寶貴的東西
17:12
this dollar美元, but then everyone大家 agreeing同意, okay,
331
1016452
2357
也就是美元 但大家又互相附和說
17:14
so long as we're on the gold standard標準, it should be okay.
332
1018809
2511
只要有金本位制度即可
17:17
The Fed美聯儲 can't mess食堂 it up so badly.
333
1021320
2050
聯準會不可能會搞砸的那麼嚴重
17:19
But then we got off the gold standard標準 for individuals個人
334
1023370
4137
但接下來我們脫離金本位 因為
17:23
during the Depression蕭條 and we got off the gold standard標準
335
1027507
2414
經濟大蕭條的引響 我們脫離金本位
17:25
as a source資源 of international國際 currency貨幣 coordination協調
336
1029921
4098
認為這是國際貨幣一致性的開端
17:29
during Richard理查德 Nixon's尼克松 presidency總統任期.
337
1034019
2232
尼克森總統任職期間廢除了金本位制
17:32
Each of those times, we were on the verge邊緣 of complete完成 collapse坍方.
338
1036251
3973
每次危機時我們都如履薄冰
17:36
And nothing happened發生 at all.
339
1040224
2154
但其實什麼事也沒發生
17:38
Throughout始終 it all, the dollar美元 has been
340
1042378
1938
整體來說 美元一直是
17:40
one of the most long-standing由來已久,
341
1044316
2308
最長效
17:42
stable穩定, reasonable合理 currencies貨幣,
342
1046624
2135
最穩定 最理性的貨幣
17:44
and we all use it every一切 single day,
343
1048759
2167
而我們每天都會用到美元
17:46
no matter what the people screaming尖叫 about tell us,
344
1050926
3025
無論別人怎麼激動的對我們說
17:49
no matter how scared害怕 we're supposed應該 to be.
345
1053951
3044
無論我們有多害怕
17:52
And this long-term長期 fiscal picture圖片 that we're in right now,
346
1056995
3945
我們目前的長期財政規劃
17:56
I think what is most maddening發瘋 about it is,
347
1060940
3929
我認為最令人生氣的是
18:00
if Congress國會 were simply只是 able能夠
348
1064869
3939
如果國會能夠
18:04
to show顯示 not that they agree同意 with each other,
349
1068808
2373
不要一味的爭論到底誰贊同誰反對
18:07
not that they're able能夠 to come up with the best最好 possible可能 compromise妥協,
350
1071181
3280
也不是告訴我們如何
達成最好的協議
18:10
but that they are able能夠 to just begin開始 the process處理
351
1074461
3082
而是他們能夠實際開始
18:13
towards compromise妥協, we all instantly即刻 are better off.
352
1077543
4481
妥協的過程 情況馬上就改善了
18:17
The fear恐懼 is that the world世界 is watching觀看.
353
1082024
4134
真正恐怖的是 全世界都在看
18:22
The fear恐懼 is that the longer we delay延遲 any solution,
354
1086158
3457
恐怖的是 越慢找到解決方法
18:25
the more the world世界 will look to the U.S.
355
1089615
1788
美國留給別人的印象
18:27
not as the bedrock基岩 of stability穩定性 in the global全球 economy經濟,
356
1091403
3620
再也不是全球經濟的穩定基石
18:30
but as a place地點 that can't resolve解決 its own擁有 fights打架,
357
1095023
3575
而是一個連自家內鬨也解決不了的笑話
18:34
and the longer we put that off, the more we make the world世界 nervous緊張,
358
1098598
3826
我們把問題拖得越久
就會讓全世界更緊張
18:38
the higher更高 interest利益 rates利率 are going to be,
359
1102424
1783
利率會節節攀升
18:40
the quicker更快 we're going to have to face面對 a day
360
1104207
2704
我們得更早被迫面對
18:42
of horrible可怕 calamity災害.
361
1106911
2107
危機爆發的一天
18:44
And so just the act法案 of compromise妥協 itself本身,
362
1109018
3564
只有真正去執行妥協的動作
18:48
and sustained持續, real真實 compromise妥協,
363
1112582
1901
執行真正能永續的協議
18:50
would give us even more time,
364
1114483
1814
才能爭取更多時間
18:52
would allow允許 both sides雙方 even longer to spread傳播 out the pain疼痛
365
1116297
2962
也能讓兩黨有更多時間
分散疼痛
18:55
and reach達到 even more compromise妥協 down the road.
366
1119259
2635
在未來才能繼續達成更多協議
18:57
So I'm in the media媒體. I feel like my job工作 to make this happen發生
367
1121894
3112
而我在媒體界工作 我想我有義務實現理想
19:00
is to help foster培育 the things that seem似乎 to lead to compromise妥協,
368
1125006
4293
就是促成可能的解決之道
19:05
to not talk about this in those vague模糊 and scary害怕 terms條款
369
1129299
4112
不是用含糊半帶威脅的態度去討論
19:09
that do polarize偏振 us,
370
1133411
1561
那樣只會加劇分裂
19:10
but to just talk about it like what it is,
371
1134972
2609
我們應該單純就當前情況去討論
19:13
not an existential存在 crisis危機,
372
1137581
1943
不是把赤字懸崖看成已發生的樣子
19:15
not some battle戰鬥 between之間 two fundamentally從根本上 different不同 religious宗教 views意見,
373
1139524
4973
也不是把危機看成
兩種信仰之間的鬥爭
19:20
but a math數學 problem問題, a really solvable可解 math數學 problem問題,
374
1144497
2602
而是看成一道可以解決的數學題目
19:22
one where we're not all going to get what we want
375
1147099
2076
一個我們無法解決的面面俱到的問題
19:25
and one where, you know, there's going to be a little pain疼痛 to spread傳播 around.
376
1149175
3955
而這個解決辦法需要大家一起分擔一點痛苦
19:29
But the more we address地址 it as a practical實際的 concern關心,
377
1153130
3515
但用越實際的眼光去看待這個問題
19:32
the sooner we can resolve解決 it,
378
1156645
1511
就越快可以解決
19:34
and the more time we have to resolve解決 it, paradoxically自相矛盾.
379
1158156
3467
相對的
我們如此以來會有更多時間可以解決問題
19:37
Thank you. (Applause掌聲)
380
1161623
4984
謝謝 (掌聲)
Translated by Ryan Wang
Reviewed by Jamie Wang

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Adam Davidson - Journalist
Adam Davidson is the co-host and co-creator of "Planet Money," a weekly podcast and radio feature about the economy.

Why you should listen

Adam Davidson is co-founder and co-host of Planet Money, a co-production of NPR and This American Life. He also writes the weekly "It's the Economy" column for the New York Times Magazine. In two weekly podcasts, a blog, and regular features on Morning Edition, All Things Considered and This American Life, Planet Money helps listeners understand how dramatic economic change is impacting their lives. Planet Money also proves, every day, that substantive, intelligent economic reporting can be funny, engaging, and accessible to the non-expert.

His radio documentary on the housing crisis, "The Giant Pool of Money," which he co-reported and produced with Alex Blumberg, was named one of the top ten works of journalism of the decade by the Arthur L. Carter Journalism Institute at New York University. It was widely recognized as the clearest and most entertaining explanation of the roots of the financial crisis in any media. Davidson and Blumberg took the lessons they learned crafting "The Giant Pool of Money" to create Planet Money.

Before Planet Money, Davidson was International Business and Economics Correspondent for NPR. He traveled around the world to cover the global economy and pitched in during crises, such as reporting from Indonesia's Banda Aceh just after the tsunami, New Orleans post-Katrina, and Paris during the youth riots. Prior to coming to NPR, Davidson was Middle East correspondent for PRI's Marketplace. He spent a year in Baghdad, Iraq, from 2003 to 2004, producing award-winning reports on corruption in the US occupation.

More profile about the speaker
Adam Davidson | Speaker | TED.com