ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Keith Chen - Behavioral economist
Keith Chen's research suggests that the language you speak may impact the way you think about your future.

Why you should listen

Does the future look like a different world to you, or more like an extension of the present? In an intriguing piece of research, Keith Chen suggests that your attitude about the future has a strong relationship to the language you speak. In a nutshell, some languages refer to the future using verb helpers like "will" and "shall," while others don't have specific verbs to refer to future actions. Chen correlated these two different language types with remarkably different rates of saving for the future (guess who saves more?). He calls this connection the "futurity" of languages. The paper is in the process of being published by the American Economic Review, and it's already generated discussion. Chen says: "While the data I analyze don’t allow me to completely understand what role language plays in these relationships, they suggest that there is something really remarkable to be explained about the interaction of language and economic decision-making. These correlations are so strong and survive such an aggressive set of controls, that the chances they arise by random lies somewhere between one in 10,000 and one in 10^32."

Chen excels in asking unusual questions to yield original results. Another work (with Yale colleague and TEDGlobal 2009 speaker Laurie Santos) examined how monkeys view economic risk--with surprisingly humanlike irrationality. While a working paper asks a surprising, if rhetorical, question: Does it make economic sense for a woman to become a physician?

Chen is currently Uber's Head of Economic Research and is an associate professor of economics at UCLA .

Read more about Chen's explorations »

More profile about the speaker
Keith Chen | Speaker | TED.com
TEDGlobal 2012

Keith Chen: Could your language affect your ability to save money?

陳凱斯:你的語言會影響你的儲蓄能力嗎?

Filmed:
1,880,497 views

經濟學家能從語言學家身上學到甚麼?根據自己的研究,行為經濟學家陳凱斯向我們介紹一種奇妙的行為模式:沒有未來式的語言 -- “明天下雨” 而非 "明天將會下雨" -- 和高儲蓄率息息相關。請大家進一步了解陳先生的發現。
- Behavioral economist
Keith Chen's research suggests that the language you speak may impact the way you think about your future. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:16
The global全球 economic經濟 financial金融 crisis危機 has reignited重燃 public上市 interest利益
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全球性的經濟金融危機再次引起大眾的關注
00:20
in something that's actually其實 one of the oldest最老的 questions問題 in economics經濟學,
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他們關注的,其實就是經濟學最古老的問題之一
00:24
dating約會 back to at least最小 before Adam亞當 Smith工匠.
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這至少要追朔到亞當 · 史密斯 (現代經濟學之父) 之前
00:27
And that is, why is it that countries國家 with seemingly似乎 similar類似 economies經濟 and institutions機構
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這個問題是,為什麼經濟模式
和金融體制類似的國家
00:32
can display顯示 radically根本 different不同 savings behavior行為?
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其國民儲蓄的行為卻天差地遠?
00:35
Now, many許多 brilliant輝煌 economists經濟學家 have spent花費 their entire整個 lives生活 working加工 on this question,
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許多才華洋溢的經濟學家
投入了畢生精力鑽研這個問題
00:40
and as a field領域 we've我們已經 made製作 a tremendous巨大 amount of headway前進
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經濟學領域的人士在這方面
已取得極為豐碩的進展
00:43
and we understand理解 a lot about this.
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對此問題頗有心得。
00:46
What I'm here to talk with you about today今天 is an intriguing奇妙 new hypothesis假設
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今天我在這裡要跟大家說的
是個有趣的新假設
00:49
and some surprisingly出奇 powerful強大 new findings發現 that I've been working加工 on
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和一些經過我不斷研究後
所得出的強有力的新發現
00:53
about the link鏈接 between之間 the structure結構體 of the language語言 you speak說話
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那就是,人們的語言文法結構
00:58
and how you find yourself你自己 with the propensity傾向 to save保存.
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與人們的儲蓄傾向之間的關聯。
01:02
Let me tell you a little bit about savings rates利率, a little bit about language語言,
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讓我來簡要談談關儲蓄率以及語言
01:05
and then I'll draw that connection連接.
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然後我會點出兩者間的關聯。
01:08
Let's start開始 by thinking思維 about the member會員 countries國家 of the OECD經合組織,
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首先讓我們想想經合組織 (OECD) 的成員國
01:12
or the Organization組織 of Economic經濟 Cooperation合作 and Development發展.
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全名是經濟合作與發展組織。
01:16
OECD經合組織 countries國家, by and large, you should think about these
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經合組織的會員國,
基本上,你們可以把他們當作
01:20
as the richest首富, most industrialized工業化 countries國家 in the world世界.
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世上最富有,工業化程度最高的國家。
01:22
And by joining加盟 the OECD經合組織, they were affirming肯定 a common共同 commitment承諾
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選擇加入經合組織時,
他們做出了一個共同的承諾
01:26
to democracy民主, open打開 markets市場 and free自由 trade貿易.
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即支持民主、 公開市場和自由貿易。
01:30
Despite儘管 all of these similarities相似之處, we see huge巨大 differences分歧 in savings behavior行為.
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儘管有這麼多相似之處,
我們仍發現儲蓄行為有極大的差異。
01:34
So all the way over on the left of this graph圖形,
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這張圖表由右向左一路上升
01:37
what you see is many許多 OECD經合組織 countries國家 saving保存 over a quarter25美分硬幣 of their GDPGDP every一切 year,
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你們可以看到,許多經合組織會員國的存款
都超過該國年度 GDP 的 25%
01:42
and some OECD經合組織 countries國家 saving保存 over a third第三 of their GDPGDP per year.
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有些經合組織會員國的存款
甚至超過其年度 GDP 的三分之一。
01:46
Holding保持 down the right flank側翼 of the OECD經合組織, all the way on the other side, is Greece希臘.
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而把右半邊的經合組織會員國往下拉的,就是希臘。
01:51
And what you can see is that over the last 25 years年份,
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你們可以看到,過去 25 年來,
01:54
Greece希臘 has barely僅僅 managed管理 to save保存 more than 10 percent百分 of their GDPGDP.
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希臘的存款勉強超過該國 GDP 的一成。
01:58
It should be noted注意, of course課程, that the United聯合的 States狀態 and the U.K. are the next下一個 in line.
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當然,值得注意的是,英國和美國緊接在旁。
02:05
Now that we see these huge巨大 differences分歧 in savings rates利率,
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現在我們看到了這些差異極大的儲蓄率
02:08
how is it possible可能 that language語言 might威力 have something to do with these differences分歧?
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這些差異怎麼可能是語言造成的呢?
02:11
Let me tell you a little bit about how languages語言 fundamentally從根本上 differ不同.
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讓我來簡要說說語言之間在根本上的差異。
02:15
Linguists語言學家 and cognitive認知 scientists科學家們 have been exploring探索 this question for many許多 years年份 now.
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多年來,語言學家和認知科學家
一直在探討這個問題。
02:20
And then I'll draw the connection連接 between之間 these two behaviors行為.
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然後我會點出這兩種行為之間的關係。
02:25
Many許多 of you have probably大概 already已經 noticed注意到 that I'm Chinese中文.
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你們很多人可能已經注意到了,我是中國人。
02:27
I grew成長 up in the Midwest中西部 of the United聯合的 States狀態.
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我在美國的中西部長大。
02:30
And something I realized實現 quite相當 early on
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很早以前我就發現一件事
02:33
was that the Chinese中文 language語言 forced被迫 me to speak說話 about and --
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那就是說中文的時候我不得不提到......
02:36
in fact事實, more fundamentally從根本上 than that --
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事實上,不光是提到......
02:39
ever so slightly forced被迫 me to think about family家庭 in very different不同 ways方法.
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說中文讓我必須從完全不同的角度
來思考家庭這個概念。
02:43
Now, how might威力 that be? Let me give you an example.
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那是甚麼意思呢?我舉個例子給你們聽。
02:45
Suppose假設 I were talking with you and I was introducing引入 you to my uncle叔叔.
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假設我在跟你說話,
然後我介紹我 uncle 給你認識。
02:50
You understood了解 exactly究竟 what I just said in English英語.
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我用英文說,你絕對聽得懂。
02:53
If we were speaking請講 Mandarin普通話 Chinese中文 with each other, though雖然,
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如果說,我們倆講的是普通話,
02:56
I wouldn't不會 have that luxury豪華.
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事情可就沒那麼好解決了。
02:58
I wouldn't不會 have been able能夠 to convey傳達 so little information信息.
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我所要傳遞的信息將大大增加。
03:00
What my language語言 would have forced被迫 me to do,
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我的語言將迫使我
03:03
instead代替 of just telling告訴 you, "This is my uncle叔叔,"
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不能只是告訴你 "這是我的 uncle"
03:05
is to tell you a tremendous巨大 amount of additional額外 information信息.
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是要告訴你大量的額外資訊。
03:08
My language語言 would force me to tell you
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我的語言迫使我告訴你
03:10
whether是否 or not this was an uncle叔叔 on my mother's母親 side or my father's父親的 side,
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他是我母親那邊的
還是我父親那一邊的 uncle,
03:13
whether是否 this was an uncle叔叔 by marriage婚姻 or by birth分娩,
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這位 uncle 是我血親或是姻親,
03:16
and if this man was my father's父親的 brother哥哥,
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如果這個人是我父親的兄弟,
03:19
whether是否 he was older舊的 than or younger更年輕 than my father父親.
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他比我父親年長或是年輕。
03:21
All of this information信息 is obligatory必修. Chinese中文 doesn't let me ignore忽視 it.
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所有這些資訊是強迫附帶的。
我說中文時無法忽略。
03:26
And in fact事實, if I want to speak說話 correctly正確地,
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事實上,如果我想說得準確,
03:28
Chinese中文 forces軍隊 me to constantly經常 think about it.
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中文讓我必須不斷地思索這些關係。
03:31
Now, that fascinated入迷 me endlessly不休 as a child兒童,
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我小時候對這些著迷得不得了,
03:35
but what fascinates著迷 me even more today今天 as an economist經濟學家
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但是今天讓我這個經濟學家更著迷的,
03:38
is that some of these same相同 differences分歧 carry攜帶 through通過 to how languages語言 speak說話 about time.
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是這些同類型的差異
如何影響到語言對時間的描述。
03:43
So for example, if I'm speaking請講 in English英語, I have to speak說話 grammatically語法 differently不同
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例如,如果我說英語,
我必須用文法說出其中差異
03:48
if I'm talking about past過去 rain, "It rained下雨 yesterday昨天,"
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如果我談論的是下過的雨:"It rained yesterday,"
03:50
current當前 rain, "It is raining下雨 now,"
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正在下的雨:"It is raining now,"
03:53
or future未來 rain, "It will rain tomorrow明天."
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或是未來的雨:"It will rain tomorrow."。
03:55
Notice注意 that English英語 requires要求 a lot more information信息 with respect尊重 to the timing定時 of events事件.
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請注意,英語需要更多的訊息來描述時間因素。
04:00
Why? Because I have to consider考慮 that
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為什麼?因為我要考慮時間
04:02
and I have to modify修改 what I'm saying to say, "It will rain," or "It's going to rain."
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然後我要修正我想說的 :
"It will rain," 或是 "It's going to rain."
04:07
It's simply只是 not permissible可允許的 in English英語 to say, "It rain tomorrow明天."
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英語就是不允許你說 :"It rain tomorrow."
04:11
In contrast對比 to that, that's almost幾乎 exactly究竟 what you would say in Chinese中文.
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相反地,這差不多就是我們說中文的方式
04:15
A Chinese中文 speaker揚聲器 can basically基本上 say something
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基本上,以中文為母語的人說出來的話
04:17
that sounds聲音 very strange奇怪 to an English英語 speaker's音箱的 ears耳朵.
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在以英文為母語的人聽來會很奇怪。
04:20
They can say, "Yesterday昨天 it rain," "Now it rain," "Tomorrow明天 it rain."
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他們會說:"Yesterday it rain,"
"Now it rain" "Tomorrow it rain."
04:24
In some deep sense, Chinese中文 doesn't divide劃分 up the time spectrum光譜
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深究此點,我們發現
中國人不會將時間分割開來,
04:28
in the same相同 way that English英語 forces軍隊 us to constantly經常 do in order訂購 to speak說話 correctly正確地.
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而我們為了說出正確的英文,
卻必須不斷地提醒自己這點。
04:35
Is this difference區別 in languages語言
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語言之間的這種差異
04:36
only between之間 very, very distantly遠親 related有關 languages語言, like English英語 and Chinese中文?
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只存在於關係極為疏遠的語系之間,
像是英文和中文嗎?
04:40
Actually其實, no.
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其實不是。
04:41
So many許多 of you know, in this room房間, that English英語 is a Germanic日耳曼 language語言.
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現場的各位中很多人都知道了,
英語屬於日爾曼語族。
04:45
What you may可能 not have realized實現 is that English英語 is actually其實 an outlier局外人.
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而你們可能不知道,
其實英語是不合群份子。
04:49
It is the only Germanic日耳曼 language語言 that requires要求 this.
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英語是日爾曼語族中唯一需要時態的。
04:52
For example, most other Germanic日耳曼 language語言 speakers音箱
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舉例來說,大多數其他的日爾曼語族使用者
04:55
feel completely全然 comfortable自在 talking about rain tomorrow明天
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聊到明天的天氣,他們會自然而然地說
04:58
by saying, "Morgen摩根 regnetregnet esES,"
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"Morgen regnet es," (德語)
05:00
quite相當 literally按照字面 to an English英語 ear, "It rain tomorrow明天."
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翻成英文後,聽在他們耳裡成了:"It rain tomorrow."
05:04
This led me, as a behavioral行為的 economist經濟學家, to an intriguing奇妙 hypothesis假設.
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這讓我這個行為經濟學家有了靈感,
提出了一個有趣的假說。
05:09
Could how you speak說話 about time, could how your language語言 forces軍隊 you to think about time,
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人們談論時間的方式,
人們說母語時必須考慮的時態,
05:13
affect影響 your propensity傾向 to behave表現 across橫過 time?
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會影響自己長期的行為傾向嗎?
05:17
You speak說話 English英語, a futuredfutured language語言.
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你們說的是英語,有未來式的語言。
05:20
And what that means手段 is that every一切 time you discuss討論 the future未來,
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這表示,每次你們在討論未來,
05:23
or any kind of a future未來 event事件,
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或是任何尚未發生的事件,
05:25
grammatically語法 you're forced被迫 to cleave劈開 that from the present當下
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文法的限制使你們必須區分現在和未來,
05:28
and treat對待 it as if it's something viscerally發自內心 different不同.
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並確信這兩者在本質上有所不同。
05:31
Now suppose假設 that that visceral內臟 difference區別
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假設這種本質上的不同
05:33
makes品牌 you subtly巧妙的 dissociate游離 the future未來 from the present當下 every一切 time you speak說話.
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讓你們每次說話時
都能敏銳地分割現在和未來。
05:38
If that's true真正 and it makes品牌 the future未來 feel
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如果這點成立,那麼你們心中的未來
05:39
like something more distant遙遠 and more different不同 from the present當下,
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會是遙遠的,不同於現在的一個概念,
05:42
that's going to make it harder更難 to save保存.
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這種心態會讓人不想存錢。
05:45
If, on the other hand, you speak說話 a futurelessfutureless language語言,
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如果,相對來說,
你們講的是沒有未來式的語言,
05:48
the present當下 and the future未來, you speak說話 about them identically相同.
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對於現在和未來,你們的說法完全相同。
05:51
If that subtly巧妙的 nudges輕推 you to feel about them identically相同,
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如果這種微妙的傾向,
讓你們對現在與未來一視同仁
05:54
that's going to make it easier更輕鬆 to save保存.
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這種心態讓人想要存錢。
05:56
Now this is a fanciful撒嬌的 theory理論.
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這是一個天馬行空的理論。
05:59
I'm a professor教授, I get paid支付 to have fanciful撒嬌的 theories理論.
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我是個教授,有人付錢
請我提出天馬行空的理論。
06:02
But how would you actually其實 go about testing測試 such這樣 a theory理論?
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但要這種理論要如何實際測試?
06:06
Well, what I did with that was to access訪問 the linguistics語言學 literature文學.
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各位,我的做法是查閱語言學文獻。
06:10
And interestingly有趣 enough足夠, there are pockets口袋 of futurelessfutureless language語言 speakers音箱
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很有趣的是,語言裡沒有未來式的族群為數不少,
06:15
situated位於 all over the world世界.
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他們遍佈世界各地。
06:16
This is a pocket口袋 of futurelessfutureless language語言 speakers音箱 in Northern北方 Europe歐洲.
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這是一些為主歐洲北部的
沒有未來式的少數族群。
06:20
Interestingly有趣的是 enough足夠, when you start開始 to crank曲柄 the data數據,
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很有趣的是,我開始分析資料時發現,
06:23
these pockets口袋 of futurelessfutureless language語言 speakers音箱 all around the world世界
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這些遍佈世界的,不講未來式的少數族群
06:26
turn out to be, by and large, some of the world's世界 best最好 savers儲戶.
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其實是,廣義來說,世界上最會存錢的人。
06:30
Just to give you a hint暗示 of that,
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就做一個簡單的演示,
06:32
let's look back at that OECD經合組織 graph圖形 that we were talking about.
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我們回頭看看剛才我們
在談論的經合組織儲蓄圖。
06:35
What you see is that these bars酒吧 are systematically系統 taller
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你們會發現這幾個國家的數值
06:38
and systematically系統 shifted to the left
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平均偏高,多半在圖表的左邊
06:40
compared相比 to these bars酒吧 which哪一個 are the members會員 of the OECD經合組織 that speak說話 futuredfutured languages語言.
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與那些文法有未來式的經合組織成員相比。
06:45
What is the average平均 difference區別 here?
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這張圖的平均值差異是多少?
06:46
Five percentage百分比 points of your GDPGDP saved保存 per year.
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每年拿該國 GDP 的百分之五來做儲蓄。
06:50
Over 25 years年份 that has huge巨大 long-run長跑 effects效果 on the wealth財富 of your nation國家.
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25 年后,這將對本國金融有長遠而重要的影響。
06:54
Now while these findings發現 are suggestive提示,
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雖然這些數據能作此解讀
06:57
countries國家 can be different不同 in so many許多 different不同 ways方法
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國與國之間會有各種不同的差異
06:59
that it's very, very difficult sometimes有時 to account帳戶 for all of these possible可能 differences分歧.
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有時候,要解釋所有這些
可能的差異是極為常困難的事。
07:03
What I'm going to show顯示 you, though雖然, is something that I've been engaging in for a year,
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然而我等一下要提供的,
是這一年來我埋頭研究的東西
07:08
which哪一個 is trying to gather收集 all of the largest最大 datasets數據集
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藉由經濟學家身分之便,我收集了那些...
07:10
that we have access訪問 to as economists經濟學家,
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極為龐大的資料集,並試圖將之彙整
07:12
and I'm going to try and strip跳閘 away all of those possible可能 differences分歧,
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然後我試圖剔除所有那些可能的差異,
07:16
hoping希望 to get this relationship關係 to break打破.
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希望發現這兩種關係之間的盲點。
07:18
And just in summary概要, no matter how far I push this, I can't get it to break打破.
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總而言之,不管我做了多少推論,還是沒有突破。
07:23
Let me show顯示 you how far you can do that.
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讓我向你們展示一下
研究可以達到甚麼程度。
07:25
One way to imagine想像 that is I gather收集 large datasets數據集 from around the world世界.
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你們可以想像一下,
我收集了世界各地的龐大資料集。
07:30
So for example, there is the Survey調查 of Health健康, [Aging老化] and Retirement退休 in Europe歐洲.
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例如說,歐洲的健康和 [老化] 退休人口的調查。
07:33
From this dataset數據集 you actually其實 learn學習 that retired退休 European歐洲的 families家庭
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這個資料集會讓你們瞭解,歐洲的退休家庭
07:37
are extremely非常 patient患者 with survey調查 takers考生.
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真的對調查者都極有耐心。
07:40
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
07:42
So imagine想像 that you're a retired退休 household家庭 in Belgium比利時 and someone有人 comes to your front面前 door.
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想像一下,你是退休的比利時人,
然後你家門口來了個訪客。
07:46
"Excuse藉口 me, would you mind心神 if I peruse細讀 your stock股票 portfolio投資組合?
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"不好意思,請問可以讓我
細讀您的股票投資組合嗎?
07:51
Do you happen發生 to know how much your house is worth價值? Do you mind心神 telling告訴 me?
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您是否知道這間房子的價格呢?可以告訴我嗎?
07:54
Would you happen發生 to have a hallway門廳 that's more than 10 meters long?
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您府上走廊的長度該不會剛好超過 10 米吧?
07:57
If you do, would you mind心神 if I timed時控 how long it took you to walk步行 down that hallway門廳?
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如果是的話,可以讓我計算
您通過走廊要花多少時間嗎?
08:02
Would you mind心神 squeezing擠壓 as hard as you can, in your dominant優勢 hand, this device設備
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可以請您盡量大力握,
用您的慣用手,握這個設備,
08:06
so I can measure測量 your grip strength強度?
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好讓我測量您的握力嗎?
08:07
How about blowing into this tube so I can measure測量 your lung capacity容量?"
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可以吹這根管子讓我測量您的肺容量嗎?"
08:11
The survey調查 takes over a day.
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這項調查費時一天以上。
08:14
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
08:16
Combine結合 that with a Demographic人口 and Health健康 Survey調查
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結合這些數據與其他調查,例如說......
08:20
collected by USAID你說 in developing發展 countries國家 in Africa非洲, for example,
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美國國際開發署在非洲的
發展中國家蒐集的數據
08:24
which哪一個 that survey調查 actually其實 can go so far as to directly measure測量 the HIVHIV status狀態
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這個調查連愛滋病毒感染狀況
的數據都可以直接呈現
08:29
of families家庭 living活的 in, for example, rural鄉村 Nigeria尼日利亞.
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針對的是......比方說,奈及利亞的農家成員。
08:32
Combine結合 that with a world世界 value survey調查,
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把這些數據與世界範圍內的調查相結合,
08:34
which哪一個 measures措施 the political政治 opinions意見 and, fortunately幸好 for me, the savings behaviors行為
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也就是政治傾向......以及算我好運......儲蓄行為的調查
08:39
of millions百萬 of families家庭 in hundreds數以百計 of countries國家 around the world世界.
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針對全世界數百個國家的數百萬家庭。
08:43
Take all of that data數據, combine結合 it, and this map地圖 is what you get.
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取得所有資料、將之整合,最後得到這張圖。
08:47
What you find is nine countries國家 around the world世界
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你們會發現,全世界有九個國家
08:49
that have significant重大 native本地人 populations人群
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他們有大量的原住民人口
08:52
which哪一個 speak說話 both futurelessfutureless and futuredfutured languages語言.
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有的說未來式,有的不說未來式。
08:56
And what I'm going to do is form形成 statistical統計 matched匹配 pairs
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而我的做法是,用統計學將其配對,
09:00
between之間 families家庭 that are nearly幾乎 identical相同 on every一切 dimension尺寸 that I can measure測量,
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我盡可能地考慮各個層面,
並撮合所有條件幾乎相同的家庭,
09:05
and then I'm going to explore探索 whether是否 or not the link鏈接 between之間 language語言 and savings holds持有
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接著我會大膽推測,
語言和儲蓄之間的聯繫是否存在,
09:09
even after controlling控制 for all of these levels水平.
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連所有這些因素都考量進去的情況下。
09:12
What are the characteristics特點 we can control控制 for?
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我們能控制哪些特質因素?
09:15
Well I'm going to match比賽 families家庭 on country國家 of birth分娩 and residence住宅,
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我要以出生國和居住國為撮合因素,
09:17
the demographics人口統計學 -- what sex性別, their age年齡 --
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還有人口統計學 -- 他們的性別,年紀,
09:20
their income收入 level水平 within their own擁有 country國家,
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他們與本國居民相比的收入水準,
09:22
their educational教育性 achievement成就, a lot about their family家庭 structure結構體.
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他們的教育成就,家庭結構的細節。
09:25
It turns out there are six different不同 ways方法 to be married已婚 in Europe歐洲.
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結果發現,歐洲有六種不同的結婚方式。
09:28
And most granularly細粒度, I break打破 them down by religion宗教
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我用宗教做為劃分依據,
可說是鉅細靡遺,
09:33
where there are 72 categories類別 of religions宗教 in the world世界 --
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全世界有七十二種宗教派別,
09:36
so an extreme極端 level水平 of granularity粒度.
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因此區別程度極為精細。
09:38
There are 1.4 billion十億 different不同 ways方法 that a family家庭 can find itself本身.
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單個家庭會有十四億種區分標準。
09:42
Now effectively有效 everything I'm going to tell you from now on
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現在開始,所有我要告訴你們的,
09:46
is only comparing比較 these basically基本上 nearly幾乎 identical相同 families家庭.
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其實只有比較這些大致相類似的家庭。
09:49
It's getting得到 as close as possible可能 to the thought experiment實驗
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我盡可能地讓腦中的想法付諸實驗,
09:52
of finding發現 two families家庭 both of whom live生活 in Brussels布魯塞爾
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我找到兩個家庭成員,都住在布魯塞爾,
09:55
who are identical相同 on every一切 single one of these dimensions尺寸,
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他們每方面的條件都相似,
09:58
but one of whom speaks說話 Flemish佛蘭芒語 and one of whom speaks說話 French法國;
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但是一個家庭說佛蘭芒语,另一個說法語;
10:01
or two families家庭 that live生活 in a rural鄉村 district in Nigeria尼日利亞,
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又或是奈及利亞郊區的兩個家庭,
10:04
one of whom speaks說話 Hausa豪薩語 and one of whom speaks說話 Igbo伊博.
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其中一個說豪撒語,另一個說伊博語。
10:07
Now even after all of this granular粒狀 level水平 of control控制,
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現在連控制變因都做到如此細緻了,
10:11
do futurelessfutureless language語言 speakers音箱 seem似乎 to save保存 more?
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不說外來式的人存的錢比較多嗎?
10:14
Yes, futurelessfutureless language語言 speakers音箱, even after this level水平 of control控制,
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沒錯,不說未來式的人,
即便控制變因已如此細緻
10:18
are 30 percent百分 more likely容易 to report報告 having saved保存 in any given特定 year.
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他們在任何一年內都有
多三成的可能性進行儲蓄。
10:22
Does this have cumulative累積的 effects效果?
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這會有累積效應嗎?
10:24
Yes, by the time they retire退休, futurelessfutureless language語言 speakers音箱, holding保持 constant不變 their income收入,
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沒錯,等到退休時,
這些收入穩定,不說未來式的人,
10:28
are going to retire退休 with 25 percent百分 more in savings.
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退休時的儲蓄還會再多四分之一。
10:31
Can we push this data數據 even further進一步?
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我們能用這些資料進一步假設嗎?
10:34
Yes, because I just told you, we actually其實 collect蒐集 a lot of health健康 data數據 as economists經濟學家.
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可以,因為我說了,事實上
我們經濟學家收集了很多健康資訊。
10:39
Now how can we think about health健康 behaviors行為 to think about savings?
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為什麼我們能從健康習慣聯想到儲蓄呢?
10:43
Well, think about smoking抽煙, for example.
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舉個例子,你們想想抽菸。
10:46
Smoking抽煙 is in some deep sense negative savings.
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仔細思考後會發現抽菸是負面的儲蓄。
10:49
If savings is current當前 pain疼痛 in exchange交換 for future未來 pleasure樂趣,
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如果說儲蓄是用當下的痛苦換取未來的愉悅,
10:52
smoking抽煙 is just the opposite對面.
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抽菸則是相反情況。
10:54
It's current當前 pleasure樂趣 in exchange交換 for future未來 pain疼痛.
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抽菸是用當下的愉悅換取未來的痛苦。
10:57
What we should expect期望 then is the opposite對面 effect影響.
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而到頭來我們期待的會是另外一種結果。
11:00
And that's exactly究竟 what we find.
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事實上,這就是我們的發現。
11:01
FuturelessFutureless language語言 speakers音箱 are 20 to 24 percent百分 less likely容易
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與其他條件幾乎相同的家庭比較,
11:05
to be smoking抽煙 at any given特定 point in time compared相比 to identical相同 families家庭,
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不說未來式的人,任何時間點的
抽菸可能性大約低了 20-24%。
11:08
and they're going to be 13 to 17 percent百分 less likely容易
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他們退休時的肥胖可能性
11:11
to be obese肥胖 by the time they retire退休,
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大約少了13-17%,
11:14
and they're going to report報告 being存在 21 percent百分 more likely容易
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根據報告,在上一次性行為時使用了保險套
11:16
to have used a condom避孕套 in their last sexual有性 encounter遭遇.
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的可能性要多21%。
11:18
I could go on and on with the list名單 of differences分歧 that you can find.
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我可以一項項地列舉這些差異。
11:22
It's almost幾乎 impossible不可能 not to find a savings behavior行為
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幾乎很難找到一種儲蓄習慣......
11:26
for which哪一個 this strong強大 effect影響 isn't present當下.
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不受這種強而有力的效應影響。
11:28
My linguistics語言學 and economics經濟學 colleagues同事 at Yale耶魯 and I are just starting開始 to do this work
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我和我在耶魯的語言學和
經濟學同事們,正開始進行這研究,
11:33
and really explore探索 and understand理解 the ways方法 that these subtle微妙 nudges輕推
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我們真的發現了
並理解這種微妙的推力
11:38
cause原因 us to think more or less about the future未來 every一切 single time we speak說話.
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或多或少讓我們每次
講到未來時都會稍加思考。
11:44
Ultimately最終,, the goal目標,
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最後,我們的目標是,
11:46
once一旦 we understand理解 how these subtle微妙 effects效果 can change更改 our decision決定 making製造,
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一旦我們了解這些微妙的推力
如何影響我們的決策,
11:50
we want to be able能夠 to provide提供 people tools工具
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我們想要提供人們一些方法,
11:53
so that they can consciously自覺 make themselves他們自己 better savers儲戶
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如此一來,他們就能自覺地改善儲蓄習慣,
11:56
and more conscious意識 investors投資者 in their own擁有 future未來.
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也能更自覺地投資自己的未來。
11:59
Thank you very much.
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非常謝謝大家。
12:01
(Applause掌聲)
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(掌聲)
Translated by Ho-chung Chou
Reviewed by Julia Xu

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Keith Chen - Behavioral economist
Keith Chen's research suggests that the language you speak may impact the way you think about your future.

Why you should listen

Does the future look like a different world to you, or more like an extension of the present? In an intriguing piece of research, Keith Chen suggests that your attitude about the future has a strong relationship to the language you speak. In a nutshell, some languages refer to the future using verb helpers like "will" and "shall," while others don't have specific verbs to refer to future actions. Chen correlated these two different language types with remarkably different rates of saving for the future (guess who saves more?). He calls this connection the "futurity" of languages. The paper is in the process of being published by the American Economic Review, and it's already generated discussion. Chen says: "While the data I analyze don’t allow me to completely understand what role language plays in these relationships, they suggest that there is something really remarkable to be explained about the interaction of language and economic decision-making. These correlations are so strong and survive such an aggressive set of controls, that the chances they arise by random lies somewhere between one in 10,000 and one in 10^32."

Chen excels in asking unusual questions to yield original results. Another work (with Yale colleague and TEDGlobal 2009 speaker Laurie Santos) examined how monkeys view economic risk--with surprisingly humanlike irrationality. While a working paper asks a surprising, if rhetorical, question: Does it make economic sense for a woman to become a physician?

Chen is currently Uber's Head of Economic Research and is an associate professor of economics at UCLA .

Read more about Chen's explorations »

More profile about the speaker
Keith Chen | Speaker | TED.com