ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Ken Jennings - Know-it-all
Ken Jennings holds the record for most consecutive wins on the classic American trivia game show, Jeopardy.

Why you should listen

Ken Jennings loves facts. When he was a kid he followed his parents around reciting whatever new fact he had learned -- "Haley's comet or giant squids or the size of the world's biggest pumpkin pie or whatever it was" -- to no end. And his natural curiosity paid off. Today Jennings holds the record for most consecutive wins on the trivia game show Jeopardy, with an astounding 74 wins. (At one point Jennings also held the Guinness World Record for "Most cash won on a game show." Not bad for a trivia nerd.)

In 2011 Jennings participated in the IBM Challenge, which featured him and Jeopardy rival Brad Rutter in a match against IBM supercomputer Watson. Jennings came in second. Watson was first. But Jennings wasn't disappointed in his performance, As he wrote of his loss, "I don't have 2,880 processor cores and 15 terabytes of reference works at my disposal. ... My puny human brain, just a few bucks worth of water, salts, and proteins, hung in there just fine against a jillion-dollar supercomputer."

In 2012 Jennings published the book Because I Said So!: The Truth Behind the Myths, Tales, and Warnings Every Generation Passes Down to Its Kids.

More profile about the speaker
Ken Jennings | Speaker | TED.com
TEDxSeattleU

Ken Jennings: Watson, Jeopardy and me, the obsolete know-it-all

肯·詹寧斯: 沃森、危險邊緣和我,淘汰的通天曉

Filmed:
1,338,700 views

通天曉肯·詹寧斯以記憶百科知識為職業,他是美國電視節目危險邊緣獲勝記錄最長的選手。但在 2011 年,在與超級電腦沃森的對抗中,他輸了。在這個演講中,詹寧斯幽默而謙遜地將我們講述了他在最擅長的遊戲中被電腦打敗的感受,並依此說明傳統的人類知識的重要性。(攝於TEDxSeattleU)
- Know-it-all
Ken Jennings holds the record for most consecutive wins on the classic American trivia game show, Jeopardy. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

再過兩週,就是我首次踏上電視競賽節目
00:12
In two weeks time, that's the ninth第九 anniversary週年
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00:15
of the day I first stepped加強 out onto that hallowed神聖 "Jeopardy危險" set.
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「危險邊緣」九週年了。
00:19
I mean, nine years年份 is a long time.
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九年時間不短。
鑒於「危險邊緣」觀眾平均年歲,
00:21
And given特定 "Jeopardy's岌岌可危的" average平均 demographics人口統計學,
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00:23
I think what that means手段
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我想這意味著
00:24
is most of the people who saw me on that show顯示 are now dead.
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當初看我上節目的大部分觀眾都已離世了。
00:27
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
00:29
But not all, a few少數 are still alive.
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不過,還有些健在的。
00:31
Occasionally偶爾 I still get recognized認可 at the mall購物中心 or whatever隨你.
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偶爾在商場等地方,我也會被人認出來。
人們認為我就是個「通天曉」
00:33
And when I do, it's as a bit of a know-it-all知道這一切.
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00:36
I think that ship has sailed航行, it's too late晚了 for me.
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我想木已成舟,我已無力改變。
是好是壞,我就是人們心裡那個,
00:38
For better or for worse更差, that's what I'm going to be known已知 as,
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博識奇異怪事的人。
00:41
as the guy who knew知道 a lot of weird奇怪的 stuff東東.
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00:44
And I can't complain抱怨 about this.
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對此我也沒有抱怨。
00:46
I feel like that was always sort分類 of my destiny命運,
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我常覺得那就是我的命運,
00:49
although雖然 I had for many許多 years年份 been pretty漂亮 deeply in the trivia瑣事 closet壁櫥.
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儘管多年來我一直隱藏對百科知識的著迷。
00:52
If nothing else其他, you realize實現 very quickly很快 as a teenager青少年,
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不難料想,少年時你很快會發現,
00:55
it is not a hit擊中 with girls女孩 to know Captain隊長 Kirk's柯克的 middle中間 name名稱.
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知道卻克船長的中間名對女生而言沒有任何吸引力。
00:58
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
00:59
And as a result結果, I was sort分類 of the deeply closeted密談 kind of know-it-all知道這一切 for many許多 years年份.
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因此,許久我都算是個韜光養晦的「通天曉」
不過若你回顧更早些年,一切不言自明。
01:03
But if you go further進一步 back, if you look at it, it's all there.
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01:07
I was the kind of kid孩子 who was always bugging竊聽 Mom媽媽 and Dad
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小時候,我就經常纏著爸媽
興緻勃勃告訴他們書本中讀到的世界奇事
01:10
with whatever隨你 great fact事實 I had just read about --
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01:13
Haley'sHaley的 comet彗星 or giant巨人 squids魷魚
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哈雷彗星也好,巨烏賊也好
01:14
or the size尺寸 of the world's世界 biggest最大 pumpkin南瓜 pie餡餅 or whatever隨你 it was.
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或是世上最大的南瓜派有多大,諸如此類。
我有個十歲的孩子,和我當年一模一樣。
01:18
I now have a 10-year-old-歲 of my own擁有 who's誰是 exactly究竟 the same相同.
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01:21
And I know how deeply annoying惱人的 it is, so karma因果報應 does work.
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因此我知道那多麼煩人,所以說是因果循環。
(笑聲)
01:26
(Laughter笑聲)
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01:27
And I loved喜愛 game遊戲 shows節目, fascinated入迷 with game遊戲 shows節目.
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我喜愛遊戲節目,為此深深著迷。
01:30
I remember記得 crying哭了 on my first day of kindergarten幼兒園 back in 1979
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我記得 1979 年我在上幼稚園的第一天哭了
01:33
because it had just hit擊中 me, as badly as I wanted to go to school學校,
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因為我突然意識到,儘管我想去上學,
但我會因此錯過「好萊塢廣場」和「家庭問答」
01:36
that I was also going to miss小姐 "Hollywood好萊塢 Squares廣場" and "Family家庭 Feud世仇."
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01:39
I was going to miss小姐 my game遊戲 shows節目.
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我會錯過喜歡的遊戲節目。
後來,到了80年代中期,
01:43
And later後來, in the mid-'中-'80s,
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01:45
when "Jeopardy危險" came來了 back on the air空氣,
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當「危險邊緣」重回螢幕,
01:47
I remember記得 running賽跑 home from school學校 every一切 day to watch the show顯示.
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我每天放學後都會跑回家看。
它是我最喜歡的節目,當時我還沒有贏得獎金。
01:51
It was my favorite喜愛 show顯示, even before it paid支付 for my house.
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我們當時住在韓國,我父親在那兒工作,
01:56
And we lived生活 overseas海外, we lived生活 in South Korea韓國 where my dad was working加工,
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01:59
where there was only one English英語 language語言 TV電視 channel渠道.
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那兒只有一個英語頻道。
叫做武裝力量臺,
02:01
There was Armed武裝 Forces軍隊 TV電視,
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02:02
and if you didn't speak說話 Korean朝鮮的, that's what you were watching觀看.
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如果你不懂韓文就只能看這個臺。
02:05
So me and all my friends朋友 would run home every一切 day and watch "Jeopardy危險."
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我和我的夥伴們每天都會跑回家看「危險邊緣」
02:08
I was always that kind of obsessed痴迷 trivia瑣事 kid孩子.
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我一直都是那種沉迷於百科知識的孩子。
02:11
I remember記得 being存在 able能夠 to play Trivial不重要的 Pursuit追求 against反對 my parents父母 back in the '80s
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我記得80年代和我父母玩棋盤遊戲
當時很流行,我玩得不錯。
02:16
and holding保持 my own擁有, back when that was a fad時尚.
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當你知道一些父母不知道的百科知識時
02:19
There's a weird奇怪的 sense of mastery征服 you get
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02:21
when you know some bit of boomer嬰兒潮一代 trivia瑣事 that Mom媽媽 and Dad don't know.
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會有一種很奇怪的優越感。
02:24
You know some Beatles披頭士樂隊 factoid仿真陳述 that Dad didn't know.
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當你知道一些爸爸都不知道的有關披頭四的傳聞時,
02:28
And you think, ah hah, knowledge知識 really is power功率 --
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你會想,啊哈,知識果然是力量,
02:31
the right fact事實 deployed部署 at exactly究竟 the right place地點.
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準確的資訊落到了對的人手裡。
02:38
I never had a guidance指導 counselor顧問
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沒有一個指導顧問
02:40
who thought this was a legitimate合法 career事業 path路徑,
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認為這是一個可以從事的職業,
02:42
that thought you could major重大的 in trivia瑣事
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認為你可以主修百科,
02:45
or be a professional專業的 ex-game前遊戲 show顯示 contestant選手.
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或成為一個職業的前遊戲競賽選手。
02:48
And so I sold出售 out way too young年輕.
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我太年輕,就放棄了。
02:50
I didn't try to figure數字 out what one does with that.
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沒有試著搞清楚如何發揮特長。
02:52
I studied研究 computers電腦 because I heard聽說 that was the thing,
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我隨主流,學了電機工程,
02:54
and I became成為 a computer電腦 programmer程序員 --
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並成為了一名電腦程序員,
02:56
not an especially特別 good one,
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成就平平,
02:58
not an especially特別 happy快樂 one at the time when I was first on "Jeopardy危險" in 2004.
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2004年上節目的時候工作也不是特別開心。
03:03
But that's what I was doing.
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但當時那是我的生活。
03:04
And it made製作 it doubly ironic具有諷刺意味 -- my computer電腦 background背景 --
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更加諷刺的是,我的電機背景,
03:07
a few少數 years年份 later後來, I think 2009 or so,
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在幾年後,大概2009年左右,
03:11
when I got another另一個 phone電話 call from "Jeopardy危險" saying,
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節目組打電話給我說,
“現在為時尚早,但IBM告訴我們
03:14
"It's early days yet然而, but IBMIBM tells告訴 us
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03:16
they want to build建立 a supercomputer超級計算機 to beat擊敗 you at 'Jeopardy'危險.'
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他們想造一台超級電腦與你競賽。
03:21
Are you up for this?"
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你有興趣嗎?”
03:23
This was the first I'd heard聽說 of it.
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這是我第一次聽說這種事。
03:24
And of course課程 I said yes, for several一些 reasons原因.
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我當然一口答應了,原因有幾點:
其一,我喜歡參加「危險邊緣」。
03:27
One, because playing播放 "Jeopardy危險" is a great time.
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它充滿樂趣,是你能穿著褲子做的最有樂趣的事。
03:29
It's fun開玩笑. It's the most fun開玩笑 you can have with your pants褲子 on.
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(笑聲)
03:33
(Laughter笑聲)
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不用任何回報我都會參加。
03:35
And I would do it for nothing.
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幸好他們當時不知道,
03:36
I don't think they know that, luckily,
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但就算給我快餐券我也願意去。
03:38
but I would go back and play for Arby's阿拜的 coupons優惠券.
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我真心熱愛「危險邊緣」,一直都是。
03:41
I just love "Jeopardy危險," and I always have.
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03:43
And second第二 of all, because I'm a nerdy書呆子 guy and this seemed似乎 like the future未來.
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其二,我是個書呆子,而電腦看似是未來趨勢。
03:48
People playing播放 computers電腦 on game遊戲 shows節目
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遊戲節目上的人機大戰,
03:50
was the kind of thing I always imagined想像 would happen發生 in the future未來,
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我一直認為會在未來某天發生。
03:53
and now I could be on the stage階段 with it.
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而現在我能和它在臺上一決高下。
03:54
I was not going to say no.
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我肯定不會拒絕。
03:55
The third第三 reason原因 I said yes
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其三,我一口答應
03:56
is because I was pretty漂亮 confident信心 that I was going to win贏得.
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是因為我很有信心可以贏得比賽。
03:59
I had taken採取 some artificial人造 intelligence情報 classes.
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我上過一些人工智能的課程。
04:01
I knew知道 there were no computers電腦 that could do what you need to do to win贏得 on "Jeopardy危險."
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知道電腦不具備贏得「危險邊緣」的能力。
04:05
People don't realize實現 how tough強硬 it is to write that kind of program程序
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人們不知道要寫出那樣的程序有多難
04:09
that can read a "Jeopardy危險" clue線索 in a natural自然 language語言 like English英語
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可以聽懂英語這一種人類自然語言的遊戲提示
04:12
and understand理解 all the double meanings含義, the puns雙關語, the red herrings鯡魚,
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理解各種雙關和障眼法,
04:16
unpack解壓 the meaning含義 of the clue線索.
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破解提示中的含義。
04:18
The kind of thing that a three-三- or four-year-old四十歲 human人的, little kid孩子 could do,
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這種事三四歲的孩子可以做,
但對電腦來說很難。
04:23
very hard for a computer電腦.
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04:25
And I thought, well this is going to be child's孩子的 play.
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我當時想,這將是輕而易舉。
04:28
Yes, I will come destroy破壞 the computer電腦 and defend保衛 my species種類.
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沒錯,我會打敗電腦捍衛我人類的尊嚴。
(笑聲)
04:33
(Laughter笑聲)
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04:35
But as the years年份 went on,
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但幾年過去了,
04:37
as IBMIBM started開始 throwing投擲 money and manpower人手 and processor處理器 speed速度 at this,
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IBM在電腦上投入了大量的金錢、人力、高速處理器,
我開始偶爾聽到他們的進展,
04:40
I started開始 to get occasional偶然 updates更新 from them,
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04:43
and I started開始 to get a little more worried擔心.
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開始有一點擔心。
04:44
I remember記得 a journal日誌 article文章 about this new question answering回答 software軟件 that had a graph圖形.
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我記得一篇帶圖文章專門討論過這種答題軟體。
那是一個散點圖描述 「危險邊緣」比賽成績,
04:50
It was a scatter分散 chart圖表 showing展示 performance性能 on "Jeopardy危險,"
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04:54
tens of thousands數千 of dots representing代表 "Jeopardy危險" champions冠軍 up at the top最佳
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成千上萬個點在頂部代表「危險邊緣」的冠軍們
他們的成績由
04:58
with their performance性能 plotted繪製 on number of --
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05:00
I was going to say questions問題 answered回答, but answers答案 questioned質疑, I guess猜測,
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我本來想說的是所回答的問題,但我想應該說是被質疑的答案,標示
05:04
clues線索 responded回應 to --
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相應的線索-
05:06
versus the accuracy準確性 of those answers答案.
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來對比答案的準確性。
05:09
So there's a certain某些 performance性能 level水平 that the computer電腦 would need to get to.
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電腦必須達到某一特定的分數水準。
05:12
And at first, it was very low.
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剛開始,分數很低。
05:14
There was no software軟件 that could compete競爭 at this kind of arena競技場.
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沒有哪個軟體可以參加這樣的比賽。
05:17
But then you see the line start開始 to go up.
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但接著你看到線條開始上走。
05:19
And it's getting得到 very close to what they call the winner's獲獎者 cloud.
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開始接近所謂的優勝者區域。
05:22
And I noticed注意到 in the upper right of the scatter分散 chart圖表
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我注意到點圖的右上方
05:24
some darker dots, some black黑色 dots, that were a different不同 color顏色.
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有一些較深色的點,和其他黑點顏色不一樣。
05:30
And thought, what are these?
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我想,這是什麽?
“右上方的黑點代表「危險邊緣」74次冠軍肯·詹寧斯。”
05:31
"The black黑色 dots in the upper right represent代表 74-time-時間 'Jeopardy''危險' champion冠軍 Ken Jennings詹寧斯."
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05:35
And I saw this line coming未來 for me.
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我看到代表電腦的線向我逼近。
05:37
And I realized實現, this is it.
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我意識到,原來是這樣。
05:38
This is what it looks容貌 like when the future未來 comes for you.
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這就是未來到來時的樣子。
05:40
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
05:42
It's not the Terminator's終結者 gun sight視力;
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不是終結者的槍戰場面;
05:45
it's a little line coming未來 closer接近 and closer接近 to the thing you can do,
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是一條線在不斷地逼近你能做的事,
唯一讓你非凡的事,你最擅長的事。
05:49
the only thing that makes品牌 you special特別, the thing you're best最好 at.
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05:52
And when the game遊戲 eventually終於 happened發生 about a year later後來,
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一年後,比賽終於舉行了,
05:57
it was very different不同 than the "Jeopardy危險" games遊戲 I'd been used to.
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那和我以前玩的「危險邊緣」很不一樣。
06:00
We were not playing播放 in L.A. on the regular定期 "Jeopardy危險" set.
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我們沒在洛杉磯的片場比賽。
06:02
Watson沃森 does not travel旅行.
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電腦沃森不能移動。
06:04
Watson's屈臣氏 actually其實 huge巨大.
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實際上,沃森體積巨大。
06:05
It's thousands數千 of processors處理器, a terabyte兆兆字節 of memory記憶,
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有數以千計的處理器,一兆兆的記憶體容量,
數萬億字節的記憶體容量。
06:10
trillions萬億 of bytes字節 of memory記憶.
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06:11
We got to walk步行 through通過 his climate-controlled氣候控制 server服務器 room房間.
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我們要走過它恒溫的服務器室。
06:14
The only other "Jeopardy危險" contestant選手 to this day I've ever been inside.
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那是到目前為止我唯一造訪過其內部的比賽選手。
06:17
And so Watson沃森 does not travel旅行.
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因為沃森不能移動。
06:21
You must必須 come to it; you must必須 make the pilgrimage朝聖.
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所以你得去找它,去朝聖。
06:25
So me and the other human人的 player播放機
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所以我和其他選手
06:27
wound傷口 up at this secret秘密 IBMIBM research研究 lab實驗室
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聚集在這個秘密的IBM實驗室裡,
06:30
in the middle中間 of these snowy似雪 woods樹木 in Westchester威徹斯特 County
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在威徹斯特郡的雪域森林中,
06:33
to play the computer電腦.
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和電腦競賽。
06:34
And we realized實現 right away
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我們立刻意識到
電腦有巨大的主場優勢,
06:36
that the computer電腦 had a big home court法庭 advantage優點.
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舞臺中央有一個巨大的沃森圖標。
06:39
There was a big Watson沃森 logo商標 in the middle中間 of the stage階段.
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06:41
Like you're going to play the Chicago芝加哥 Bulls公牛,
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就好像你要對戰芝加哥公牛隊,
06:44
and there's the thing in the middle中間 of their court法庭.
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球場中央有個大圖標。
06:46
And the crowd人群 was full充分 of IBMIBM V.P.s and programmers程序員
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觀賽人群中都是IBM的副總和程序員們
06:50
cheering歡呼 on their little darling寵兒,
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為他們的小寶貝加油,
06:52
having poured millions百萬 of dollars美元 into this
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在花費了數百萬美元後,
06:54
hoping希望 against反對 hope希望 that the humans人類 screw up,
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盼望人類會輸這一令人絕望結果,
06:57
and holding保持 up "Go Watson沃森" signs跡象
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高舉“沃森加油”的標誌
06:59
and just applauding鼓掌 like pageant盛會 moms媽媽 every一切 time their little darling寵兒 got one right.
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像選美比賽候選人的媽媽一樣,每次寶貝答對一個問題就鼓掌。
07:03
I think guys had "W-A-T-S-O-N沃森" written書面 on their bellies肚子 in grease潤滑脂 paint塗料.
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我印象中有人用油脂漆在肚子上寫"沃森"
07:09
If you can imagine想像 computer電腦 programmers程序員 with the letters "W-A-T-S-O-N沃森" written書面 on their gut腸道,
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你想像一下程序員們的肚子上寫字
07:15
it's an unpleasant不愉快 sight視力.
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那可不是一幅美景。
07:16
But they were right. They were exactly究竟 right.
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但他們是對的,完全正確。
07:19
I don't want to spoil溺愛 it, if you still have this sitting坐在 on your DVRDVR,
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如果你還沒看過比賽錄影,我不想透漏劇情,
07:22
but Watson沃森 won韓元 handily便利地.
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但沃森輕而易舉地贏了。
07:25
And I remember記得 standing常設 there behind背後 the podium講台
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我記得站在講臺後,
07:28
as I could hear that little insectoid類昆蟲 thumb拇指 clicking點擊.
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聽到機器人拇指敲擊聲。
07:31
It had a robot機器人 thumb拇指 that was clicking點擊 on the buzzer蜂鳴器.
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它有一個機器拇指按應答鍵。
07:34
And you could hear that little tick, tick, tick, tick.
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你可以聽到輕輕的咔嗒咔嗒咔嗒聲。
07:38
And I remember記得 thinking思維, this is it.
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我記得當時想,這下完了。
07:41
I felt obsolete過時的.
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我感覺被淘汰了。
07:42
I felt like a Detroit底特律 factory worker工人 of the '80s
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像80年代底特律工廠的工人一樣
07:45
seeing眼看 a robot機器人 that could now do his job工作 on the assembly部件 line.
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看著機器人在生產線上做著自己的工作。
07:48
I felt like quiz測驗 show顯示 contestant選手 was now the first job工作 that had become成為 obsolete過時的
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我感覺智力競賽參賽者是第一個被
智能電腦所取代的崗位。
07:53
under this new regime政權 of thinking思維 computers電腦.
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07:57
And it hasn't有沒有 been the last.
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而它並不是最後一個。
07:59
If you watch the news新聞, you'll你會 see occasionally偶爾 --
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如果你看新聞,就會偶爾看到
08:02
and I see this all the time --
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而我經常看到
08:03
that pharmacists藥師 now, there's a machine that can fill prescriptions處方 automatically自動
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比如藥劑師,現在有機器可以自動配藥
不需要任何藥劑師的指導。
08:08
without actually其實 needing需要 a human人的 pharmacist藥劑師.
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08:11
And a lot of law firms公司 are getting得到 rid擺脫 of paralegals律師助理
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許多律師事務所不需要雇傭法務助理
08:13
because there's software軟件 that can sum up case案件 laws法律 and legal法律 briefs內褲 and decisions決定.
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因為有一種軟體可以做案例法、摘要和判決的摘要。
08:17
You don't need human人的 assistants助理 for that anymore.
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你不需要人類助理了。
08:20
I read the other day about a program程序 where you feed飼料 it a box score得分了
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前幾天我讀到一篇文章說只要你輸入
08:23
from a baseball棒球 or football足球 game遊戲
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棒球或足球比賽的成績
08:25
and it spits吐奶 out a news新聞 article文章 as if a human人的 had watched看著 the game遊戲
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它就會自動導出一份報導
就好像是真人看過並做點評的一樣。
08:27
and was commenting評論 on it.
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08:29
And obviously明顯 these new technologies技術 can't do as clever聰明 or creative創作的 a job工作
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顯然這些技術與其所代替的人類相比
並不能做得一樣聰明和富有創造力,
08:33
as the humans人類 they're replacing更換,
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08:34
but they're faster更快, and crucially關鍵, they're much, much cheaper便宜.
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但它們更快,關鍵是它們非常便宜。
08:38
So it makes品牌 me wonder奇蹟 what the economic經濟 effects效果 of this might威力 be.
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因此我思考這其中的經濟效益。
08:43
I've read economists經濟學家 saying that, as a result結果 of these new technologies技術,
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我曾讀到有經濟學家說,這些技術產生的結果之一
08:46
we'll enter輸入 a new golden金色 age年齡 of leisure閒暇
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是我們可以進入休閒的黃金時代
08:48
when we'll all have time for the things we really love
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我們可以把時間花在我們喜歡的事物上
08:51
because all these onerous繁重的 tasks任務 will be taken採取 over by Watson沃森 and his digital數字 brethren弟兄.
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因為那些繁瑣的工作可以交給沃森和它的電子夥伴們。
08:58
I've heard聽說 other people say quite相當 the opposite對面,
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我也聽過有些人持相反意見,
08:59
that this is yet然而 another另一個 tier一線 of the middle中間 class
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說這是另一層中產階級
09:02
that's having the thing they can do taken採取 away from them by a new technology技術
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他們所能做的事情被科技所取代
09:07
and that this is actually其實 something ominous不祥的,
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這是不幸的開始,
09:08
something that we should worry擔心 about.
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值得我們擔心。
09:10
I'm not an economist經濟學家 myself.
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我不是經濟學家。
09:11
All I know is how it felt to be the guy put out of work.
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我只知道失去工作的感受,
09:15
And it was friggin'受詛咒的“ demoralizing士氣受挫. It was terrible可怕.
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那是沉重的打擊,非常糟糕。
「危險邊緣」是我至今為止擅長的事,
09:18
Here's這裡的 the one thing that I was ever good at,
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09:20
and all it took was IBMIBM pouring澆注 tens of millions百萬 of dollars美元 and its smartest最聰明的 people
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但只要IBM注以千萬美元投入人才
外加數以千計的處理器
09:24
and thousands數千 of processors處理器 working加工 in parallel平行
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就能將我取代。
09:27
and they could do the same相同 thing.
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09:29
They could do it a little bit faster更快 and a little better on national國民 TV電視,
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在全國觀眾面前,他們能做的更快更好,
09:32
and "I'm sorry, Ken. We don't need you anymore."
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“不好意思,肯,我們不需要你了。”
09:35
And it made製作 me think, what does this mean,
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這讓我思考,這意味著什麽,
09:39
if we're going to be able能夠 to start開始 outsourcing外包,
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如果我們開始將工作外包,
09:40
not just lower降低 unimportant不重要 brain functions功能.
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不僅是低級的大腦功能,
09:44
I'm sure many許多 of you remember記得 a distant遙遠 time
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我想許多人都記得很久以前
09:46
when we had to know phone電話 numbers數字, when we knew知道 our friends'朋友' phone電話 numbers數字.
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我們必須要記住朋友的電話號碼。
09:49
And suddenly突然 there was a machine that did that,
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突然間,有一種機器可以做到,
09:51
and now we don't need to remember記得 that anymore.
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現在用不著我們記了。
09:54
I have read that there's now actually其實 evidence證據
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我讀到有報導說現在有證據表明
09:55
that the hippocampus海馬, the part部分 of our brain that handles手柄 spacial空間 relationships關係,
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我們大腦中的海馬體(處理空間關係的組織)
10:00
physically物理 shrinks收縮 and atrophies萎縮
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在逐漸萎縮
10:02
in people who use tools工具 like GPS全球定位系統,
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比如使用GPS的人們,
10:04
because we're not exercising行使 our sense of direction方向 anymore.
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因為我們不使用方向感了,
10:07
We're just obeying服從 a little talking voice語音 on our dashboard儀表板.
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而是聽從儀錶盤上的語音指揮。
10:09
And as a result結果, a part部分 of our brain that's supposed應該 to do that kind of stuff東東
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結果,大腦中具有該功能的那部份
10:12
gets得到 smaller and dumber.
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變小變遲鈍了。
10:13
And it made製作 me think, what happens發生 when computers電腦 are now better
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這也使得我思考,如果計算機
的理解和記憶功能比人類更強大會怎樣?
10:17
at knowing會心 and remembering記憶 stuff東東 than we are?
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10:21
Is all of our brain going to start開始 to shrink收縮 and atrophy like that?
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我們的大腦是否都會像那樣萎縮呢?
10:25
Are we as a culture文化 going to start開始 to value knowledge知識 less?
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人類文明是否會開始輕視知識的價值?
10:29
As somebody who has always believed相信 in the importance重要性 of the stuff東東 that we know,
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作為一個堅信知識力量的人,
10:32
this was a terrifying可怕的 idea理念 to me.
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這對我來說太可怕了。
我越想就越發現,不,這依然重要。
10:40
The more I thought about it, I realized實現, no, it's still important重要.
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10:45
The things we know are still important重要.
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我們的知識依然重要。
10:47
I came來了 to believe there were two advantages優點
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我相信有兩大優勢
是我們這些用腦記知識的人有
10:50
that those of us who have these things in our head have
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而那些只會說“哦對,我可以google,等我一下“的人沒有的。
10:54
over somebody who says, "Oh, yeah. I can Google谷歌 that. Hold保持 on a second第二."
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10:58
There's an advantage優點 of volume, and there's an advantage優點 of time.
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一是資訊量的優勢,二是時間的優勢。
11:01
The advantage優點 of volume, first,
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首先,資訊量的優勢
11:03
just has to do with the complexity複雜 of the world世界 nowadays如今.
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與如今複雜的世界有關。
11:05
There's so much information信息 out there.
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世界充斥著太多的資訊。
11:07
Being存在 a Renaissance再生 man or woman女人,
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想要成為像是文藝復興時期所說的全人
11:08
that's something that was only possible可能 in the Renaissance再生.
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那也只有那個時代才有可能做到。
11:10
Now it's really not possible可能
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現在要想掌握所有領域的基本知識
11:11
to be reasonably合理 educated博學 on every一切 field領域 of human人的 endeavor努力.
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是完全不可能了。
11:14
There's just too much.
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資訊量實在太大了。
11:16
They say that the scope範圍 of human人的 information信息
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據說現在人類資訊範圍
11:19
is now doubling加倍 every一切 18 months個月 or so,
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大約每18個月
11:21
the sum total of human人的 information信息.
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人類資訊總量就成長一倍左右。
11:23
That means手段 between之間 now and late晚了 2014,
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這意味著從現在到2014年下旬,
11:27
we will generate生成 as much information信息, in terms條款 of gigabytes千兆字節,
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人們所產出的資訊,以千兆來算,將等同於
11:30
as all of humanity人性 has in all the previous以前 millenia千年 put together一起.
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人類歷史上產出的資訊的總和。
並且每18個月就會多一倍。
11:34
It's doubling加倍 every一切 18 months個月 now.
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11:36
This is terrifying可怕的 because a lot of the big decisions決定 we make
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這很駭人因為我們許多重要的決定
11:40
require要求 the mastery征服 of lots of different不同 kinds of facts事實.
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都是基於多各種資訊的掌握之上。
11:43
A decision決定 like where do I go to school學校? What should I major重大的 in?
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比如我應該上哪所學校?應該選什麽專業?
11:48
Who do I vote投票 for?
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我應該投票給誰?
11:49
Do I take this job工作 or that one?
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我接受這份工作還是那份?
11:51
These are the decisions決定 that require要求 correct正確 judgments判斷
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這些決定的做出
要基於對各種資訊的正確判斷。
11:55
about many許多 different不同 kinds of facts事實.
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11:57
If we have those facts事實 at our mental心理 fingertips指尖,
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如果我們的能把這些知識存在腦子裡,
11:59
we're going to be able能夠 to make informed通知 decisions決定.
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我們就能做出明智的決定。
12:01
If, on the other hand, we need to look them all up,
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但是,如果我們需要去搜索這些資訊,
12:04
we may可能 be in trouble麻煩.
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我們可能會有麻煩。
12:06
According根據 to a National國民 Geographic地理 survey調查 I just saw,
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根據我剛讀到國家地理雜誌的調查顯示,
12:08
somewhere某處 along沿 the lines of 80 percent百分
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大約百分之八十左右
12:10
of the people who vote投票 in a U.S. presidential總統 election選舉 about issues問題 like foreign國外 policy政策
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就外交政策選舉美國總統的選民
12:14
cannot不能 find Iraq伊拉克 or Afghanistan阿富汗 on a map地圖.
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沒辦法在地圖上找到伊拉克和阿富汗。
12:17
If you can't do that first step,
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如果你連第一步都做不到,
12:20
are you really going to look up the other thousand facts事實 you're going to need to know
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你真會去查其他幾千條你需要知道的資訊
來掌握美國外交政策嗎?
12:23
to master your knowledge知識 of U.S. foreign國外 policy政策?
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12:26
Quite相當 probably大概 not.
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這不大可能。
12:27
At some point you're just going to be like,
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某一刻,你會說
12:28
"You know what? There's too much to know. Screw it."
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”算了,要知道的實在太多了,管它的。“
12:30
And you'll你會 make a less informed通知 decision決定.
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這樣你的決定就不那麼明智了。
12:32
The other issue問題 is the advantage優點 of time that you have
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另外,如果這些資訊對你而言是信手拈來
12:35
if you have all these things at your fingertips指尖.
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你就有一個時間優勢。
12:37
I always think of the story故事 of a little girl女孩 named命名 Tilly蒂莉 Smith工匠.
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我常想到一個叫媞麗史密斯的女孩的故事。
12:41
She was a 10-year-old-歲 girl女孩 from Surrey薩里, England英國
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她來自英國薩利郡
12:43
on vacation假期 with her parents父母 a few少數 years年份 ago in Phuket普吉島, Thailand泰國.
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幾年前在泰國普吉島和父母度假。
12:47
She runs運行 up to them on the beach海灘 one morning早上
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一天早晨在沙灘上,她跑到父母那兒,
12:48
and says, "Mom媽媽, Dad, we've我們已經 got to get off the beach海灘."
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說,”爸爸媽媽,我們必須離開海灘。“
12:51
And they say, "What do you mean? We just got here."
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他們說,”你說什麽?我們才來啊。“
12:54
And she said, "In Mr先生. Kearney's科爾尼 geography地理 class last month,
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她說,”科尼先生上個月在地理課上說,
12:57
he told us that when the tide浪潮 goes out abruptly突然 out to sea
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當潮汐突然退向海面
13:00
and you see the waves波浪 churning翻騰 way out there,
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波浪在海面上翻滾,
13:01
that's the sign標誌 of a tsunami海嘯, and you need to clear明確 the beach海灘."
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那是海嘯的預警,就得離開海灘。“
如果你10歲的女兒跑來說這些你會怎麼做?
13:06
What would you do if your 10-year-old-歲 daughter女兒 came來了 up to you with this?
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13:08
Her parents父母 thought about it,
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她的父母想了想,
13:09
and they finally最後, to their credit信用, decided決定 to believe her.
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幸運的是,決定相信她。
13:11
They told the lifeguard救生員, they went back to the hotel旅館,
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他們告訴了救生員,回到酒店,
13:13
and the lifeguard救生員 cleared清除 over 100 people off the beach海灘, luckily,
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救生員讓100多人撤離了海灘,很幸運,
因為那就是南亞大海嘯,
13:17
because that was the day of the Boxing拳擊 Day tsunami海嘯,
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13:20
the day after Christmas聖誕, 2004,
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2004年聖誕節後的那次,
13:22
that killed殺害 thousands數千 of people in Southeast東南 Asia亞洲 and around the Indian印度人 Ocean海洋.
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東南亞和印度洋數以千計的人遇難。
13:26
But not on that beach海灘, not on Mai Khao Beach海灘,
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但在那個麥考海灘上無一傷亡,
13:28
because this little girl女孩 had remembered記得 one fact事實 from her geography地理 teacher老師 a month before.
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因為這個小女孩記得一個月前地理老師教的知識。
13:33
Now when facts事實 come in handy便利 like that --
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當資訊發揮這樣的作用-
13:35
I love that story故事 because it shows節目 you the power功率 of one fact事實,
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我喜歡這個故事因為它顯示了一個資訊的力量,
13:39
one remembered記得 fact事實 in exactly究竟 the right place地點 at the right time --
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一個記住的資訊在對的時間和地點發揮了作用-
13:43
normally一般 something that's easier更輕鬆 to see on game遊戲 shows節目 than in real真實 life.
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比起在現實生活裡,有時這更容易反映在遊戲節目中。
13:46
But in this case案件 it happened發生 in real真實 life.
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但在這個案例裡,則是實際發生在現實生活中。
13:48
And it happens發生 in real真實 life all the time.
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這樣的事情在現實生活中常常發生。
13:50
It's not always a tsunami海嘯, often經常 it's a social社會 situation情況.
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不會總是海嘯,通常只是一個社交場合。
13:52
It's a meeting會議 or job工作 interview訪問 or first date日期
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可能是一個會議或面試或初次約會
13:57
or some relationship關係 that gets得到 lubricated潤滑
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或者是一段關係
因為兩個人意識到他們有共同的知識而升溫。
13:58
because two people realize實現 they share分享 some common共同 piece of knowledge知識.
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14:02
You say where you're from, and I say, "Oh, yeah."
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你說你來自哪裡,我說,“哦,對。”
14:04
Or your alma母校 mater母校 or your job工作,
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或者是你的母校或你的工作,
14:06
and I know just a little something about it,
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我只知道一點相關的資訊,
14:08
enough足夠 to get the ball rolling壓延.
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卻足以讓談話進行下去。
14:09
People love that shared共享 connection連接 that gets得到 created創建
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人們喜歡和其他人的共鳴
14:11
when somebody knows知道 something about you.
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當別人知道一些關於你的資訊就會產生連結。
14:13
It's like they took the time to get to know you before you even met會見.
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就好像你們還沒見過面對方就已經花時間瞭解你了。
那就是時間的優勢。
14:18
That's often經常 the advantage優點 of time.
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14:19
And it's not effective有效 if you say, "Well, hold保持 on.
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如果你這麼說就不管用了,“哦,等等。
14:20
You're from Fargo法戈, North Dakota達科他州. Let me see what comes up.
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你來自北達科塔的法戈。我查查看
14:26
Oh, yeah. Roger羅傑 Maris馬里斯 was from Fargo法戈."
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哦,對。羅傑·馬裡斯也來自法戈。”
14:28
That doesn't work. That's just annoying惱人的.
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那根本沒用。反而很令人生厭。
14:31
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
14:33
The great 18th-centuryTH-世紀 British英國的 theologian神學家 and thinker思想家, friend朋友 of Dr博士. Johnson約翰遜,
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偉大的18世紀英國神學家和思想家,也是約翰遜博士的朋友,
14:39
Samuel塞繆爾 Parr帕爾 once一旦 said, "It's always better to know a thing than not to know it."
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薩繆爾帕爾曾經說道,“知道總比不知道強。”
如果我要選一個人生信條,可能就是這個。
14:45
And if I have lived生活 my life by any kind of creed信條, it's probably大概 that.
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14:50
I have always believed相信 that the things we know -- that knowledge知識 is an absolute絕對 good,
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我始終相信我們知道的事(知識絕對是好的)
14:55
that the things we have learned學到了 and carry攜帶 with us in our heads
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我們學到的記住的東西,
14:58
are what make us who we are,
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造就了我們,
15:00
as individuals個人 and as a species種類.
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不論是個人還是群種。
15:03
I don't know if I want to live生活 in a world世界 where knowledge知識 is obsolete過時的.
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我不知道我是否想生活在一個知識被淘汰的世界裡。
15:07
I don't want to live生活 in a world世界 where cultural文化 literacy讀寫能力 has been replaced更換
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我不想生活在一個文化素養被
15:10
by these little bubbles泡泡 of specialty專業,
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專業泡沫所取代的世界,
15:12
so that none沒有 of us know about the common共同 associations協會
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沒有人知道
把人類文明串聯起來的鏈結。
15:16
that used to bind捆綁 our civilization文明 together一起.
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15:18
I don't want to be the last trivia瑣事 know-it-all知道這一切
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我不想成為最後一個「通天曉」
15:20
sitting坐在 on a mountain somewhere某處,
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在山上的某一處,
15:22
reciting背誦 to himself他自己 the state capitals首都 and the names of "Simpsons辛普森" episodes發作
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自言自語各州首府和辛普森一家的集名
和Abba的歌詞。
15:26
and the lyrics歌詞 of Abba阿巴 songs歌曲.
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我認為我們的文明必須有一個共同的文化傳承
15:30
I feel like our civilization文明 works作品 when this is a vast廣大 cultural文化 heritage遺產 that we all share分享
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是我們大家共曉的,無需任何儀器幫助,
15:34
and that we know without having to outsource外包 it to our devices設備,
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15:37
to our search搜索 engines引擎 and our smartphones智能手機.
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不需要搜索引擎或智慧型手機。
15:40
In the movies電影, when computers電腦 like Watson沃森 start開始 to think,
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在影片裡,當和沃森一樣的電腦開始思考,
15:44
things don't always end結束 well.
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並非總是美好的結果。
15:47
Those movies電影 are never about beautiful美麗 utopias烏托邦.
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那些電影沒有一部是關於美好的烏托邦的。
15:51
It's always a terminator終結者 or a matrix矩陣 or an astronaut宇航員 getting得到 sucked out an airlock氣閘 in "2001."
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總是關於終結者或駭客帝國
或“2001”裡宇航員被吸出密倉外。
15:57
Things always go terribly可怕 wrong錯誤.
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事情總是變得非常糟糕。
16:00
And I feel like we're sort分類 of at the point now
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我覺得我們現在面臨著
16:02
where we need to make that choice選擇 of what kind of future未來 we want to be living活的 in.
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必須選擇我們想要生活在怎樣的未來裡。
16:06
This is a question of leadership領導,
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這是關於領導力的問題,
16:07
because it becomes a question of who leads引線 the future未來.
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因為這是關於誰能主宰未來。
16:11
On the one hand, we can choose選擇 between之間 a new golden金色 age年齡
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一方面,我們可以選擇是要黃金時代裡,
16:17
where information信息 is more universally舉世 available可得到
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資訊比人類歷史的任何時候
在全球更容易取得,
16:21
than it's ever been in human人的 history歷史,
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16:22
where we all have the answers答案 to our questions問題 at our fingertips指尖.
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我們要的答案就在指尖,
16:25
And on the other hand,
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還是,
16:26
we have the potential潛在 to be living活的 in some gloomy陰沉 dystopia異位
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我們可能要生活在陰暗的地獄
16:29
where the machines have taken採取 over
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那裡機器主宰一切
16:31
and we've我們已經 all decided決定 it's not important重要 what we know anymore,
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我們決定了知識已不再重要,
16:34
that knowledge知識 isn't valuable有價值 because it's all out there in the cloud,
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知識沒有價值因為一切都在雲端,
16:37
and why would we ever bother learning學習 anything new.
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我們爲什麽還要費心去學新知識呢。
那是給我們的兩個選擇。我知道我想選哪個。
16:43
Those are the two choices選擇 we have. I know which哪一個 future未來 I would rather be living活的 in.
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16:46
And we can all make that choice選擇.
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我們都可以做這樣的選擇。
16:49
We make that choice選擇 by being存在 curious好奇, inquisitive好奇 people who like to learn學習,
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我們選擇做有好奇心愛學習的人,
16:52
who don't just say, "Well, as soon不久 as the bell has rung梯級 and the class is over,
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而不是會說“只要鈴一響一下課,
16:55
I don't have to learn學習 anymore,"
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我就不用再學了。"
16:56
or "Thank goodness善良 I have my diploma文憑. I'm doneDONE learning學習 for a lifetime一生.
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或是“感謝上天我終於拿到了學位。我這輩子不用再學習了。
17:00
I don't have to learn學習 new things anymore."
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不用再學新知識了。”
17:02
No, every一切 day we should be striving努力 to learn學習 something new.
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不,每一天我們都應該努力學新知識。
17:05
We should have this unquenchable不滅 curiosity好奇心 for the world世界 around us.
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我們對周遭世界應該懷著無盡的好奇心。
17:09
That's where the people you see on "Jeopardy危險" come from.
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「危險邊緣」上的選手就是這樣的。
17:12
These know-it-alls知道,它承滴盤, they're not Rainman-style雨人式 savants學者
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那些「通天曉」們,他們不是雨人般的學者
17:15
sitting坐在 at home memorizing記憶 the phone電話 book.
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待在家裡背電話本。
17:17
I've met會見 a lot of them.
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我見過很多這些通天曉。
17:19
For the most part部分, they are just normal正常 folks鄉親
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基本上,他們就是普通人
17:20
who are universally舉世 interested有興趣 in the world世界 around them, curious好奇 about everything,
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對世界充滿了興趣,對一切都好奇,
17:24
thirsty for this knowledge知識 about whatever隨你 subject學科.
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對各種知識求知若渴。
17:28
We can live生活 in one of these two worlds世界.
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我們可以在這兩種世界中擇其一。
17:30
We can live生活 in a world世界 where our brains大腦, the things that we know,
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我們可以生活在一個我們的頭腦、知識
17:33
continue繼續 to be the thing that makes品牌 us special特別,
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繼續造就與眾不同的我們的世界,
17:35
or a world世界 in which哪一個 we've我們已經 outsourced外包 all of that to evil邪惡 supercomputers超級計算機 from the future未來 like Watson沃森.
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或者是把一切外包給沃森這樣的超級電腦的未來。
17:42
Ladies女士們 and gentlemen紳士, the choice選擇 is yours你的.
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女士們,先生們,選擇權在你們手上。
17:44
Thank you very much.
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非常感謝大家。
Translated by Julia Xu
Reviewed by Shengwei Cai

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Ken Jennings - Know-it-all
Ken Jennings holds the record for most consecutive wins on the classic American trivia game show, Jeopardy.

Why you should listen

Ken Jennings loves facts. When he was a kid he followed his parents around reciting whatever new fact he had learned -- "Haley's comet or giant squids or the size of the world's biggest pumpkin pie or whatever it was" -- to no end. And his natural curiosity paid off. Today Jennings holds the record for most consecutive wins on the trivia game show Jeopardy, with an astounding 74 wins. (At one point Jennings also held the Guinness World Record for "Most cash won on a game show." Not bad for a trivia nerd.)

In 2011 Jennings participated in the IBM Challenge, which featured him and Jeopardy rival Brad Rutter in a match against IBM supercomputer Watson. Jennings came in second. Watson was first. But Jennings wasn't disappointed in his performance, As he wrote of his loss, "I don't have 2,880 processor cores and 15 terabytes of reference works at my disposal. ... My puny human brain, just a few bucks worth of water, salts, and proteins, hung in there just fine against a jillion-dollar supercomputer."

In 2012 Jennings published the book Because I Said So!: The Truth Behind the Myths, Tales, and Warnings Every Generation Passes Down to Its Kids.

More profile about the speaker
Ken Jennings | Speaker | TED.com