ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Larry Brilliant - Epidemiologist, philanthropist
TED Prize winner Larry Brilliant has spent his career solving the ills of today -- from overseeing the last smallpox cases to saving millions from blindness -- and building technologies of the future. Now, as Chair of the Skoll Global Threats Fund, he's redefining how we solve the world's biggest problems.

Why you should listen

Larry Brilliant's career path, as unlikely as it is inspirational, has proven worthy of his surname. Trained as a doctor, he was living in a Himalayan monastery in the early 1970s when his guru told him he should help rid the world of smallpox. He joined the World Health Organization's eradication project, directed efforts to eliminate the disease in India and eventually presided over the last case of smallpox on the planet.

Not content with beating a single disease, he founded the nonprofit Seva Foundation, which has cured more than two million people of blindness in 15 countries through innovative surgery, self-sufficient eye care systems and low-cost manufacturing of intraocular lenses. Outside the medical field, he found time to cofound the legendary online community The Well, and run two public tech companies. Time and WIRED magazines call him a "technology visionary."

His 2006 TED Prize wish drew on both sides of his career: He challenged the TED community to help him build a global early-response system to spot new diseases as quickly as they emerge. Called InSTEDD, the system has grown into a network of 100 digital detection partners, which provide tools that help the UN, WHO and CDC track potential pandemics. 

Shortly after he won the TED Prize, Google executives asked Brilliant to run their new philanthropic arm, Google.org. So, between consulting on the WHO's polio eradication project and designing a disease-surveillance network, he harnessed Google's brains and billions in a mix of for-profit and nonprofit ventures tackling the global problems of disease, poverty and climate change. Today, Brilliant is Chair of the Skoll Global Threats Fund, where he heads a team whose mission is to confront global threats imperiling humanity: pandemics, climate change, water security, nuclear proliferation and Middle East conflict.

More profile about the speaker
Larry Brilliant | Speaker | TED.com
Skoll World Forum 2007

Larry Brilliant: The case for optimism

賴利布里安談他的樂觀主義

Filmed:
504,358 views

谷歌社會服務網站主任賴利布里安說,人類在50年前就知道地球暖化的問題而很少有行動。面對這類令人沮喪的趨勢,他仍然樂觀,並告訴我們為什麼。這演講在英國牛津Skoll世界論壇舉行。www.skollfoundation.org
- Epidemiologist, philanthropist
TED Prize winner Larry Brilliant has spent his career solving the ills of today -- from overseeing the last smallpox cases to saving millions from blindness -- and building technologies of the future. Now, as Chair of the Skoll Global Threats Fund, he's redefining how we solve the world's biggest problems. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:16
I'm going to try to give you a view視圖 of the world世界 as I see it,
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我將告訴你們我的世界觀,
00:22
the problems問題 and the opportunities機會 that we face面對,
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我們面對的問題與機會,
00:26
and then ask the question if we should be optimistic樂觀 or pessimistic悲觀.
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然後思考我們是該樂觀還是悲觀的問題,
00:30
And then I'll let you in on a secret秘密, which哪一個 is why I am an incurable不可救藥 optimist樂天派.
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然後讓你們分享一個秘密,就是我為什麼是個不可救藥的樂觀主義者,
00:36
Let me start開始 off showing展示 you an Al Gore血塊 movie電影 that you may可能 have seen看到 before.
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我先放一段你們可能已經看過的高爾的電影,
00:42
Now, you've all seen看到 "Inconvenient不方便 Truth真相." This is a little more inconvenient不方便.
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你們大概都看過“不願面對的真相”,這段是更難以面對。
00:51
(Video視頻): Man: ... extremely非常 dangerous危險 questions問題.
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(錄影帶):人:.....非常危險的問題。
00:53
Because, with our present當下 knowledge知識, we have no idea理念 what would happen發生.
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因為,以我們現在的知識,我們不知道將會發生什麼,
00:57
Even now, man may可能 be unwittingly不知不覺 changing改變 the world's世界 climate氣候
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即使現在,人們可能還在不經意中改變世界的氣候,
01:01
through通過 the waste浪費 products製品 of his civilization文明.
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經由人類文明的廢棄物,
01:04
Due應有 to our release發布, through通過 factories工廠 and automobiles汽車 every一切 year,
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由於每年工廠與汽車的排放,
01:07
of more than six billion十億 tons of carbon dioxide二氧化碳 --
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超過60億噸的二氧化碳--
01:10
which哪一個 helps幫助 air空氣 absorb吸收 heat from the sun太陽 --
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它們幫助空氣吸收太陽的熱量--
01:13
our atmosphere大氣層 seems似乎 to be getting得到 warmer回暖.
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我們的大氣變得更暖和,
01:16
This is bad?
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這是不好嗎?
01:18
Well, it's been calculated計算 a few少數 degrees'度“ rise上升 in the earth's地球 temperature溫度 would
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是的,計算顯示地球溫度只要上升幾度,
01:22
melt熔化 the polar極性 ice caps帽子.
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就會融化兩極的冰蓋,
01:32
And if this happens發生, an inland內陸 sea would fill a good portion一部分 of the Mississippi密西西比州 Valley.
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如果這個發生,則密西西比山谷的一大部分地區將如一片內陸海洋,
01:37
Tourists遊客 in glass-bottomed玻璃底 boats would be viewing觀看 the drowned淹死的 towers of Miami邁阿密
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觀光客搭乘底部是玻璃的船,欣賞邁阿密沉在海中的大樓,
01:41
through通過 150 feet of tropical熱帶 water.
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水深有150英尺,
01:45
For, in weather天氣, we're not only dealing交易 with forces軍隊 of a far greater更大 variety品種
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因為,在氣候這事,我們面對的力量,變化遠多於
01:50
than even the atomic原子 physicist物理學家 encounters遭遇, but with life itself本身.
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原子物理學家所面對的,而且還涉及生命本身。
01:54
Larry拉里 Brilliant輝煌: Should we feel good, or should we feel bad
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賴利布里安:我們應該感到高興還是悲哀,
01:58
that 50 years年份 of foreknowledge預知 accomplished完成 so little?
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對這50年我們累積的知識只完成這麼一點點?
02:04
Well, it depends依靠, really, on what your goals目標 are.
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這要看你的目標是什麼,
02:07
And I think, as my goals目標, I always go back to Gandhi's甘地 talisman護符.
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我想,我的目標,我總是回想甘地的原則,
02:14
When Mahatma聖雄 Gandhi甘地 was asked,
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每當甘地被問到,
02:16
"How do you know if the next下一個 act法案 that you are about to do is the right one
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“你怎麼知道你下一個要做的事情是對的,
02:22
or the wrong錯誤 one?" he said, "Consider考慮 the face面對 of the poorest最窮,
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還是錯的?”他總說,“想那些最苦的人,
02:28
most vulnerable弱勢 human人的 being存在 that you ever chanced偶然 upon,
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想那些你見過最可憐的人,
02:34
and ask yourself你自己 if the act法案 that you contemplate沉思 will be of benefit效益 to that person.
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問你自己,你要做的事是否對他們有益,
02:40
And if it will be, it's the right thing to do, and if not, rethink反思 it."
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如果是,那就是該做的事,如果不是,就要再考慮。”
02:46
For those of us in this room房間, it's not just the poorest最窮 and the most vulnerable弱勢 individual個人,
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對在這裡的各位,不止要考慮最窮的人與最可憐的人,
02:51
it's the community社區, it's the culture文化, it's the world世界 itself本身.
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還要考慮社區,文化以及整個世界,
02:56
And the trends趨勢 for those who are at the periphery周邊 of our society社會,
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對社會邊緣人的未來,
03:01
who are the poorest最窮 and the most vulnerable弱勢,
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就是那些最窮的與最可憐的人,
03:04
the trends趨勢 give rise上升 to a great case案件 for pessimism悲觀主義.
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他們的前景是令人悲觀的,
03:10
But there's also a wonderful精彩 case案件 for optimism樂觀.
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但也有值得樂觀的一面,
03:13
Let's review評論 them both. First of all, the megatrends大趨勢.
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讓我們對兩者都檢討一下,第一,大趨勢
03:19
There's two degrees, or three degrees of climate氣候 change更改 baked烘烤的 into the system系統.
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地球溫度將上升兩度或三度,
03:26
It will cause原因 rising升起 seas海域. It will cause原因 saline鹽水 deposited沉積 into wells and into lands土地.
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它會導致海平面上升,使得水井與土地含鹽度增高,
03:34
It will disproportionately不成比例 harm危害 the poorest最窮 and the most vulnerable弱勢,
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它會不成比例的傷害到最窮與最無力的人,
03:38
as will the increasing增加 rise上升 of population人口.
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以及新增加的人口,
03:43
Even though雖然 we've我們已經 dodged迴避 Paul保羅 Ehrlich's艾氏 population人口 bomb炸彈,
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雖然我們避開了Ehrlich的人口爆炸論,
03:46
and we will not see 20 billion十億 people in this decade, as he had forecast預測,
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不會如他預測的在這年代看到200億的人口,
03:52
we eat as if we were 20 billion十億.
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但我們消耗的糧食就像200億人這麼多,
03:55
And we consume消耗 so much that again, a rise上升 of 6.5 billion十億 to 9.5 billion十億
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我們消耗這麼多,加上人口增加由65億到95億,
04:04
in our grandchildren's孫子的 lifetime一生 will disproportionately不成比例 hurt傷害
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到我們孫輩時就會不成比例的傷害
04:08
the poorest最窮 and the most vulnerable弱勢.
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到最窮苦與最無力的,
04:12
That's why they migrate遷移 to cities城市.
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所以他們要移居到城市去,
04:16
That's why in June六月 of this year, we passed通過, as a species種類, 51 percent百分 of us living活的 in cities城市,
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因此到今年的6月,51%的人類居住到城市,
04:22
and busteesbustees, and slums貧民窟, and shantytowns棚戶區.
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許多各樣的貧民區,
04:27
The rural鄉村 areas are no longer producing生產 as much food餐飲 as they did.
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農村不再像從前那樣生產許多食物,
04:31
The green綠色 revolution革命 never reached到達 Africa非洲.
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綠色革命沒有在非洲發生,
04:34
And with desertification荒漠化, sandstorms沙塵暴, the Gobi戈壁 Desert沙漠, the Ogaden歐加登,
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加上土地沙漠化,砂石風暴,戈壁沙漠,歐加登平原乾旱,
04:41
we are finding發現 increasing增加 difficulty困難 of a hectare公頃
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我們發現一單位土地愈來愈難,
04:45
to produce生產 as many許多 calories卡路里 as it did even 15 years年份 ago.
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像15年前生產出那麼多的卡路里,
04:50
So humans人類 are turning車削 more towards animal動物 consumption消費.
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所以人們要轉向多吃肉類,
04:55
In Africa非洲 last year, Africans非洲人 ate 600 million百萬 wild野生 animals動物,
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在非洲,去年非洲人吃掉6億頭野生動物,
05:00
and consumed消費 two billion十億 kilograms公斤 of bush襯套 meat.
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消費20億公斤的野生動物肉品,
05:05
And every一切 kilogram公斤 of bush襯套 meat contained hundreds數以百計 of thousands數千 of novel小說 viruses病毒
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而每公斤的野生動物肉體裡面含有千百種的細菌,
05:11
that have never been charted繪製, the genomic基因組 sequences序列 of which哪一個 we don't know.
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我們對這些細菌的性質不了解,吃了會有什麼結果也不知道,
05:17
Their fitness身體素質 for creating創建 pandemics流行病 we are unaware不知道 of,
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不清楚它們是不是會造成流行疾病,
05:22
but we are ripe成熟 for zoonotic-borne人畜共患傳染, emerging新興 communicable傳染性 diseases疾病.
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但我們可能將面對動物源病媒性新型的傳染病。
05:30
Increasingly日益, I would say explosive爆炸物 growth發展 of technology技術.
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科技方面爆炸性的成長,
05:34
Most of us are the beneficiaries受益者 of that growth發展. But it has a dark黑暗 side
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使我們大家受益,但它還是有黑暗面,
05:41
-- in bioweapons生物武器, and in technology技術 that puts看跌期權 us on a collision碰撞 course課程
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如生物戰劑,在衝突時可能用到的科技,
05:46
to magnify放大 any anger憤怒, hatred or feeling感覺 of marginalization邊緣化.
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會擴大任何氣憤,仇恨或邊緣化的感覺,
05:54
And in fact事實, with increasing增加 globalization全球化 --
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而在全球化加速之際,
05:58
for which哪一個 there are big winners獲獎者 and even bigger losers失敗者
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有大贏家與更大的輸家,
06:02
-- today今天 the world世界 is more diverse多種 and unfair不公平 than perhaps也許 it has ever been in history歷史.
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-今天世界比史上任何時候都更加的差異化與不公平,
06:10
One percent百分 of us own擁有 40 percent百分 of all the goods產品 and services服務.
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1%的人擁有40%的物資與服務,
06:17
What will happen發生 if the billion十億 people today今天 who live生活 on less than one dollar美元 a day
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想像今天有10億人一天生活費不到一美元,
06:24
rise上升 to three billion十億 in the next下一個 30 years年份?
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在未來30年他們成長到30億人,將會發生什麼?
06:29
The one percent百分 will own擁有 even more than 40 percent百分 of all the world's世界 goods產品
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那1%的人將擁有世界上比40%還多的物資,
06:34
and services服務. Not because they've他們已經 grown長大的 richer更豐富,
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與服務,不是因為他們他們更富有了,
06:38
but because the rest休息 of the world世界 has grown長大的 increasingly日益 poorer.
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而是因為世界其他地區更加的貧窮,
06:43
Last week, Bill法案 Clinton克林頓 at the TEDTED Awards獎項 said,
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上週,克林頓在TED頒獎典禮上說,
06:45
"This situation情況 is unprecedented史無前例, unequal不等, unfair不公平 and unstable不穩定."
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“這情形是前所未有的,不公平的,不穩定的。“
06:52
So there's lots of reason原因 for pessimism悲觀主義.
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所以有很多理由可以悲觀,
06:55
Darfur達爾富爾 is, at its origin起源, a resource資源 war戰爭.
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達爾富爾,本質上是場資源爭奪戰。
07:02
Last year, there were 85,000 riots暴動 in China中國,
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去年,中國有8萬5千件騷亂事件,
07:07
230 a day, that required需要 police警察 or military軍事 intervention介入.
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平均一天230件,那是需要出動警察或軍方干預的,
07:12
Most of them were about resources資源.
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它們多數都是為了爭奪資源,
07:15
We are facing面對 an unprecedented史無前例 number, scale規模 of disasters災害.
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我們面對的動亂遠多於從前,
07:20
Some are weather-related天氣有關, human-rights人權 related有關, epidemics流行病.
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有些與氣候有關,或與人權有關,或是傳染病,
07:25
And the newly emerging新興 diseases疾病 may可能 make H5N1 and bird flu流感
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而新興的疾病,可能使H5N1與禽流感
07:31
a quaint精巧 forerunner先行者 of things to come. It's a destabilized不穩定 world世界.
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變得只是未來大病毒前的一曲前奏般,這是個不穩定的世界,
07:39
And unlike不像 destabilized不穩定 world世界 in the past過去, it will be broadcast廣播 to you on YouTubeYouTube的,
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而與過去世界動亂不同的是,它將經由YouTube傳播給你,
07:44
you will see it on digital數字 television電視 and on your cell細胞 phones手機.
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你可以在數位電視或手機上看到,
07:48
What will that lead to?
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這會怎樣呢?
07:50
For some, it will lead to anger憤怒, religious宗教 and sectarian宗派 violence暴力 and terrorism恐怖主義.
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對有些人,它會導致憤怒,宗教的與宗派的暴力與恐怖活動,
07:57
For others其他, withdrawal退出, nihilism虛無主義, materialism唯物主義.
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對其他人,可能退縮,虛無或成為物質主義,
08:06
For us, where does it take us, as social社會 activists活動家 and entrepreneurs企業家?
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對我們這些社會活耀份子或企業家,這引導我們向哪去呢?
08:11
As we look at these trends趨勢, do we become成為 despondent沮喪, or will we become成為 energized通電?
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當我們觀察這些趨勢時,我們是該沮喪,還是更有活力?
08:20
Let's look at one case案件, the case案件 of Bangladesh孟加拉國.
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讓我們看個孟加拉國的例子,
08:25
First, even if carbon dioxide二氧化碳 emissions排放 stopped停止 today今天,
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第一,即使今後二氧化碳停止排放,
08:30
global全球 warming變暖 would continue繼續.
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全球暖化仍將繼續,
08:33
And even with global全球 warming變暖 -- if you can see these blue藍色 lines,
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在全球暖化下,你可以看到這些藍線,
08:37
the dotted line shows節目 that even if emissions排放 of greenhouse溫室 gasses氣體 stopped停止 today今天,
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這條點線顯示,即使今後溫室效應氣體排放停止,
08:46
the next下一個 decades幾十年 will see rising升起 sea levels水平.
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未來幾十年海平面也將上升,
08:51
A minimum最低限度 of 20 to 30 inches英寸 of increase增加 in sea levels水平 is the best最好 case案件
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至少也是20到30英寸,
08:58
that we can hope希望 for, and it could be 10 times that.
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但有可能是這個的10倍。
09:02
What will that do to Bangladesh孟加拉國? Let's take a look.
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這對孟加拉會怎樣?讓我們看一下,
09:05
So here's這裡的 Bangladesh孟加拉國.
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這是孟加拉,
09:12
70 percent百分 of Bangladesh孟加拉國 is at less than five feet above以上 sea level水平.
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它70%的地方不超過海平面5英尺,
09:19
Let's go up and take a look at the Himalayas喜馬拉雅山.
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讓我們向上走看看喜馬拉雅山,
09:21
And we'll watch as global全球 warming變暖 makes品牌 them melt熔化. More water comes down,
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我們看到全球暖化使它冰融,水流而下,
09:26
the deforested砍伐 areas, here in the Tarai德賴, will be unable無法 to absorb吸收 the effluent流出的,
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在這森林被採伐掉的Tarai地區,將無法吸收大量的水,
09:32
because trees樹木 are like straws秸稈 that suck吮吸 up the extra額外 seasonal時令的 water.
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因為樹木像吸管一樣,有吸收多餘水量功能的,
09:38
Now we're looking down south, through通過 the Kali卡利 Gandaki甘達基.
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現在往南看,經過Kali Gandaki,
09:41
Many許多 of you, I think, have probably大概 trekked長途跋涉 here.
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我想你們中間很多人去那旅行過,
09:44
And we're going to cruise巡航 down and take a look at Bangladesh孟加拉國
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我們將坐船旅遊看看孟加拉,
09:49
and see what the impact碰撞 will be of twin雙胞胎 increases增加 in water
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看兩種水量增加所帶來的影響,
09:55
coming未來 from the north, and in the seas海域 rising升起 from the south.
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從北方融冰的水,與南方海平面的上升,
10:01
Looking at the five major重大的 rivers河流 that feed飼料 Bangladesh孟加拉國.
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看流入孟加拉的五條主要河流,
10:05
And now let's look from the south, looking up, and let's see this in relief浮雕.
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從南方朝北看,很清楚的,
10:11
A minimum最低限度 of 20 to 40 inches英寸 of increase增加 in seas海域,
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海平面上升至少20至40英寸,
10:17
coupled耦合 with increasing增加 flows流動 from the Himalayas喜馬拉雅山. And take a look at this.
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同時來自喜馬拉雅山的水流增加,看這個
10:26
As many許多 as 100 million百萬 refugees難民 from Bangladesh孟加拉國 could be expected預期 to migrate遷移
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估計會有一億的孟加拉難民要遷移
10:35
into India印度 and into China中國.
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到印度與中國,
10:39
This is the difficulty困難 that one country國家 faces面孔.
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這只是一個國家要面臨的困難,
10:44
But if you look at the globe地球, all around the earth地球, wherever哪裡 there is low-lying area,
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但如果你看全球,整個地球,各低窪地區,
10:52
populated人口稠密 areas near the water,
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靠海的人口密集地區,
10:55
you will find increase增加 in sea level水平 that will challenge挑戰 our way of life.
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你會發現海平面上升將挑戰我們的生活方式,
10:59
Sub-Saharan撒哈拉以南 Africa非洲, and even our own擁有 San Francisco弗朗西斯科 Bay Area.
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非洲撒哈拉南方,或是我們的舊金山灣區,
11:06
We're all in this together一起.
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我們都屬一個群體的,
11:09
This is not something that happens發生 far away to people that we don't know.
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這不是發生在遙遠的那些不認識的人,
11:13
Global全球 warming變暖 is something that happens發生 to all of us, all at once一旦.
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全球暖化是同時發生在我們全體身上的。
11:19
As are these newly emerging新興 communicable傳染性 diseases疾病,
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同樣的這些新興的傳染病,
11:23
names that you hadn't有沒有 heard聽說 20 years年份 ago: ebola埃博拉病毒, lhasa拉薩 fever發熱, monkey pox.
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它們的名字在20年前都沒有人聽過:伊波拉,拉薩熱,猴痘,
11:28
With the erosion侵蝕 of the green綠色 belt separating分離 animals動物 from humans人類,
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分隔人們與動物的綠色地帶逐漸縮小,
11:33
we live生活 in each other's其他 viral病毒 environment環境.
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我們都生活在相互間病毒感染的環境中,
11:36
Do you remember記得, 20 years年份 ago, no one had ever heard聽說 of West西 Nile尼羅河 fever發熱?
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記得20年前,沒人聽說過西尼羅河熱這傳染病吧?
11:40
And then we watched看著, as one case案件 arrived到達 on the East Coast of the United聯合的 States狀態
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然後我們看到,當它在美國東岸出現後,
11:44
and it marched遊行 every一切 year, westwardly向西.
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每年向西傳染散播,
11:48
Do you remember記得 no one had heard聽說 of ebola埃博拉病毒
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你記得當初沒有人聽過伊波拉病毒,
11:51
until直到 we heard聽說 of hundreds數以百計 of people dying垂死 in Central中央 Africa非洲 from it?
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直到我們聽說非洲中部因為這種病毒而死掉數百人,
11:55
It's just the beginning開始, unfortunately不幸.
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不幸的,那只是開始,
11:57
There have been 30 novel小說 emerging新興 communicable傳染性 diseases疾病
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那裡發生30種新型的傳染病,
12:04
that begin開始 in animals動物 that have jumped跳下 species種類 in the last 30 years年份.
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它在過去30年間,從動物開始,再感染到人類,
12:11
It's more than enough足夠 reason原因 for pessimism悲觀主義.
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這病毒令人有夠多的理由感到悲觀,
12:14
But now let's look at the case案件 for optimism樂觀. (Laughter笑聲)
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但現在讓我們看看樂觀的理由(笑)
12:19
Enough足夠 of the bad news新聞. Human人的 beings眾生 have always risen上升 to the challenge挑戰.
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壞消息夠多了。但人類一直都能面對挑戰,
12:24
You just need to look at the list名單 of Nobel諾貝爾 laureates獲獎者 to remind提醒 ourselves我們自己.
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我們只需看看諾貝爾獎得主名單,就能提醒大家,
12:30
We've我們已經 been here before, paralyzed by fear恐懼, paralyzed into inaction無為,
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我們也曾面對這類困境,擔憂害怕,到不知所措,
12:36
when some -- probably大概 one of you in this room房間 -- jumped跳下 into the breach突破口
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但有些人-可能是你們其中的一人-敢於面對問題
12:42
and created創建 an organization組織 like Physicians醫生 for Social社會 Responsibility責任,
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創立一個像物理學家社會責任協會這類組織,
12:47
which哪一個 fought戰鬥 against反對 the nuclear threat威脅,
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以對抗核子威脅為目標,
12:50
MedicinsMedicins SansSANS Frontieres國界, that renewed更新 our commitment承諾 to disaster災害 relief浮雕,
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或者無國界醫生組織,它重新定義我們對抗疾病的承諾,
12:56
Mohamed穆罕默德 ElBaradei巴拉迪, and the tremendous巨大 hope希望 and optimism樂觀 that he
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默罕默德巴拉迪,他帶來極大的希望與樂觀態度,
13:00
brought all of us, and our own擁有 Muhammad穆罕默德 Yunus尤納斯.
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帶給大家,還有我們的默罕默德尤努斯
13:04
We've我們已經 seen看到 the eradication根除 of smallpox天花.
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我們看到天花被消滅,
13:08
We may可能 see the eradication根除 of polio脊髓灰質炎 this year.
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今年可能看到小兒麻痺症被消滅,
13:11
Last year, there were only 2,000 cases in the world世界.
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去年,世界只有2000個病例,
13:15
We may可能 see the eradication根除 of guinea幾內亞 worm next下一個 year --
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我們也許在明年可以看到麥地那龍線蟲症被消滅,
13:19
there are only 35,000 cases left in the world世界.
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現在世界只剩下3萬5千個案例,
13:21
20 years年份 ago, there were three and a half million百萬.
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20年前,那時有3百50萬個案例,
13:25
And we've我們已經 seen看到 a new disease疾病, not like the 30 novel小說 emerging新興 communicable傳染性 diseases疾病.
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我們看到了新的疾病,與30種新型的傳染病不同,
13:32
This disease疾病 is called sudden突然 wealth財富 syndrome綜合徵. (Laughter笑聲)
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這疾病叫做暴富症候群,(笑)
13:38
It's an amazing驚人 phenomenon現象.
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這是個有趣的現象,
13:41
All throughout始終 the technology技術 world世界, we're seeing眼看 young年輕 people bitten被咬 by this
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在這個科技的世界,我們看到年輕人被這疾病感染,
13:45
disease疾病 of sudden突然 wealth財富 syndrome綜合徵.
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患了想立即發財的傳染病,
13:49
But they're using運用 their wealth財富 in a way that their forefathers祖先 never did.
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但他們使用財富的方法,與他們的父執輩不同
13:55
They're not waiting等候 until直到 they die to create創建 foundations基金會.
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他們不是等到死後才設立基金會,
13:59
They're actively積極地 guiding主導 their money, their resources資源, their hearts心中, their commitments承諾,
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他們積極的主導他們資金,資源,關心與承諾的走向,
14:04
to make the world世界 a better place地點.
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以使世界成為更好的地方,
14:06
Certainly當然, nothing can give you more optimism樂觀 than that.
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確實,沒有別的能夠讓你更感到樂觀,
14:09
More reasons原因 to be optimistic樂觀:
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更多樂觀的理由,
14:12
in the '60s, and I am a creature生物 of the '60s, there was a movement運動.
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在60年代,我是在60年代出生的,當時有個運動,
14:17
We all felt that we were part部分 of it, that a better world世界 was right around the corner,
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我們都覺得自己是它的一部分,覺得一個更美好的世界就在轉角了,
14:21
that we were watching觀看 the birth分娩 of a world世界 free自由 of hatred and violence暴力 and prejudice偏見.
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我們覺得一個沒有仇恨沒有暴力與偏見的世界即將誕生,
14:27
Today今天, there's another另一個 kind of movement運動. It's a movement運動 to save保存 the earth地球.
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今天,有另外一個運動,是要拯救這個世界,
14:32
It's just beginning開始.
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它才剛開始,
14:34
Five weeks ago, a group of activists活動家 from the business商業 community社區 gathered雲集 together一起
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五週前,一群企業界的活耀人士聚集在一起,
14:41
to stop a Texas德州 utility效用 from building建造 nine coal-fired燃煤 electrical電動 plants植物
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要阻止一家德州電力廠建造九座煤礦火力發電廠,
14:47
that would have contributed貢獻 to destroying銷毀 the environment環境.
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因為那會破壞環境,
14:52
Six months個月 ago, a group of business商業 activists活動家 gathered雲集 together一起 to join加入 with the
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六個月前,一群企業界活躍人士聚集
14:58
Republican共和黨人 governor州長 in California加州 to pass通過 ABAB 32,
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支持加州共和黨的州長,通過AB 32法案,
15:02
the most far-reaching深遠 legislation立法 in environmental環境的 history歷史.
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這是環保史上影響最深遠的法案,
15:07
Al Gore血塊 made製作 presentations簡報 in the House and the Senate參議院 as an expert專家 witness見證.
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高爾以專家立場在參院與眾院發表演講,
15:16
Can you imagine想像? (Laughter笑聲)
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你能想像嗎?(笑)
15:19
We're seeing眼看 an entente協約國 cordialecordiale between之間 science科學 and religion宗教 that five years年份 ago
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我們看到五年前在科學界與宗教界間和睦的協商,
15:25
I would not have believed相信, as the evangelical福音 community社區
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我們真不敢相信,福音教派
15:29
has understood了解 the desperate殊死 situation情況 of global全球 warming變暖.
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了解到全球暖化迫切的情況,
15:35
And now 4,000 churches教堂 have joined加盟 the environmental環境的 movement運動.
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現在有4千多教會加入環保運動,
15:40
It is something to be greatly非常 optimistic樂觀 about.
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這是很令人振奮的事,
15:44
The European歐洲的 20-20-20 plan計劃 is an amazing驚人 breakthrough突破,
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歐洲的20-20-'20計劃是個令人驚喜的突破,
15:50
something that should make all of us feel that hope希望 is on the horizon地平線.
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是個讓大家感覺即將有希望的事情,
15:55
And on April四月 14th, there will be Step Up Day, where there will be a thousand
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在4月14日,將有個加強日,將有上千個
16:00
individual個人 mobilized動員 social社會 activist活動家 movements運動 in the United聯合的 States狀態 on protest抗議
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個人動員的社會活躍人士活動,在美國抗議
16:07
against反對 legislation立法 -- pushing推動 for legislation立法 to stop global全球 warming變暖.
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反對立法,-要推動立法以阻止全球暖化,
16:13
And on July七月 7th, around the world世界, I learned學到了 only yesterday昨天,
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在7月7日,我昨天才知道,世界各地,
16:17
there will be global全球 Live生活 Earth地球 concerts音樂會.
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將有全球現場地球音樂會,
16:21
And you can feel this optimistic樂觀 move移動 to save保存 the earth地球 in the air空氣.
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你可以感覺到這個解救地球運動帶來的樂觀氣氛。
16:27
Now, that doesn't mean that people understand理解 that global全球 warming變暖
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現在,這不代表人們都了解地球暖化
16:31
hurts傷害 the poorest最窮 and the weakest最弱 the most.
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最會傷害到的是最貧窮與最脆弱的人群
16:35
That means手段 that people are beginning開始 the first step,
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這表示人們開始了第一步,
16:37
which哪一個 is acting演戲 out of their own擁有 self-interest自我利益.
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採取行動以保護自身的利益,
16:40
But I am seeing眼看 in the major重大的 funders資助者, in CARE關心, Rockefeller洛克菲勒,
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但我看到主要的贊助人,在CARE,在洛克菲勒基金,
16:44
Rockefeller洛克菲勒 Brothers兄弟 Fund基金, Hewlett惠普, Mercy憐憫 Corps兵團, you guys, Google谷歌,
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在洛克菲勒兄弟基金,惠氏,Mercy公司,還有你們,谷歌,
16:49
so many許多 other organizations組織, a beginning開始 of understanding理解 that we need
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這麼多的組織,開始了解我們需要,
16:54
to work not just on primary prevention預防 of global全球 warming變暖,
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不僅是為阻止地球暖化,
16:57
but on the secondary次要 prevention預防 of the consequences後果 of global全球 warming變暖
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還是預防地球暖化的結果,
17:02
on the poorest最窮 and the most vulnerable弱勢.
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在最貧窮與最脆弱的地方,
17:07
But for me, I have another另一個 reason原因 to be an incurable不可救藥 optimist樂天派.
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但對我,我另有個理由成為死不悔改的樂觀主義者,
17:12
And you've heard聽說 so many許多 inspiring鼓舞人心 stories故事 here, and I heard聽說 so many許多 last night
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你們在這裡聽到這麼多令人鼓舞的故事,我昨晚聽到這麼多,
17:18
that I thought I would share分享 a little bit of mine.
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我想我該分享一些我的,
17:21
My background背景 is not exactly究竟 conventional常規 medical training訓練.
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我的背景不全是傳統的醫療訓練,
17:25
And I lived生活 in a Himalayan喜馬拉雅 monastery修道院, and I studied研究 with a very wise明智的 teacher老師,
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我曾住在一個喜馬拉雅山上的寺廟中,在那向一位很智慧的老師學習
17:30
who kicked me out of the monastery修道院 one day and told me that it was my destiny命運 --
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有一天他要我離開寺廟,說是我命中注定,
17:35
it felt like Yoda尤達 -- it is your destiny命運 to go to work for WHO
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感覺就像尤達(Yoda),你命中註定要為世界衛生組織(WHO)工作,
17:41
and to help eradicate根除 smallpox天花,
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幫助消滅天花,
17:43
at a time when there was no smallpox天花 program程序.
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那是還沒有沒有消滅天花計劃的時候,
17:47
It should make you optimistic樂觀 that smallpox天花 no longer exists存在
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現在天花消滅了,你該感到樂觀,
17:51
because it was the worst最差 disease疾病 in history歷史.
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因為它是人類史上最可怕的疾病,
17:55
In the last century世紀 -- that's the one that was seven years年份 ago --
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在上個世紀-就是七年前那個-
18:01
half a billion十億 people died死亡 from smallpox天花:
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有5億的人因為天花而死亡,
18:03
more than all the wars戰爭 in history歷史,
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比史上因為戰爭而死亡的總人數還多,
18:06
more than any other infectious傳染病 disease疾病 in the history歷史 of the world世界.
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比世界史上任何其他傳染病的都多,
18:11
In the Summer夏季 of Love, in 1967, two million百萬 people, children孩子, died死亡 of smallpox天花.
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在1967年嬉皮愛之夏期間,兩百萬的大人與小孩死於天花,
18:18
It's not ancient history歷史.
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這不是古老的歷史
18:21
When you read the biblical聖經 plague鼠疫 of boils, that was smallpox天花.
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當你讀到聖經中關於毒瘤傳染的描述,那是天花
18:26
Pharaoh老王 Ramses拉美西斯 the Fifth第五, whose誰的 picture圖片 is here, died死亡 of smallpox天花.
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法老王拉姆西斯五世,他的畫片在這,死於天花
18:33
To eradicate根除 smallpox天花, we had to gather收集 the largest最大 United聯合的 Nations國家 army軍隊 in history歷史.
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為消滅天花,我們召集聯合國史上最龐大的隊伍,
18:39
We visited參觀 every一切 house in India印度, searching搜索 for smallpox天花 -- 120 million百萬 houses房屋,
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我們訪問印度每一個房子,尋找天花,-那是1億2千萬個房子,
18:45
once一旦 every一切 month, for nearly幾乎 two years年份.
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每個月一次,幾乎持續兩年,
18:49
In a cruel殘忍 reversal翻轉, after we had almost幾乎 conquered征服 smallpox天花 --
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在我們幾乎征服天花時,局面差點反轉,
18:52
and this is what you must必須 learn學習 as a social社會 entrepreneur企業家, the realm領域 of the final最後 inch英寸.
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這是你們社會企業家必須學習的,最後一分鐘可能發生的事情,
18:58
When we had almost幾乎 eradicated根除 smallpox天花, it came來了 back again,
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當我們幾乎消滅天花時,它又回來,
19:02
because the company公司 town of TatanagarTatanagar drew德魯 laborers勞動者,
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因為在Tatanagar城市的公司招僱勞工,
19:07
who could come there and get employment僱用.
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人們可以到那受僱就業,
19:10
And they caught抓住 smallpox天花 in the one remaining其餘 place地點 that had smallpox天花,
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他們在一個還有病毒的地方感染到天花,
19:14
and they went home to die.
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他們回家待斃,
19:16
And when they did, they took smallpox天花 to 10 other countries國家
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當他們回家時,他們把天花病毒帶到10個其他國家
19:20
and reignited重燃 the epidemic疫情.
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又使得病毒散佈傳染,
19:22
And we had to start開始 all over again.
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我們必須重新開始,
19:26
But, in the end結束, we succeeded成功, and the last case案件 of smallpox天花:
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但最後我們成功了,天花的最後一個案例,
19:33
this little girl女孩, RahimaRahima Banu巴努 -- Barisal巴里薩爾, in Bangladesh孟加拉國 --
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這小女孩,巴紐,在孟加拉,
19:40
when she coughed咳嗽 or breathed無聲, and the last virus病毒 of smallpox天花 left her lungs
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當她咳嗽或呼吸時,天花的最後一個病毒離開她的肺,
19:47
and fell下跌 on the dirt污垢 and the sun太陽 killed殺害 that last virus病毒,
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掉在地上,太陽殺死那最後的病毒,
19:53
thus從而 ended結束 a chain of transmission傳輸 of history's歷史上 greatest最大 horror恐怖.
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這樣結束了史上最恐怖的病毒傳染,
20:01
How can that not make you optimistic樂觀?
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這怎麼能不使你樂觀呢?
20:07
A disease疾病 which哪一個 killed殺害 hundreds數以百計 of thousands數千 in India印度, and blinded失明 half of
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一個在印度使數十万人死亡的疾病,印度失明的人中有半數
20:13
all of those who were made製作 blind in India印度, ended結束.
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也是因為它,終於結束。
20:18
And most importantly重要的 for us here in this room房間, a bond was created創建.
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對我們在這大廳裡的人,最重要的,是成為共同體,
20:25
Doctors醫生, health健康 workers工人, from 30 different不同 countries國家,
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醫生,健康工作人員,從30個不同的國家
20:28
of every一切 race種族, every一切 religion宗教, every一切 color顏色, worked工作 together一起,
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每一個種族,每個宗教,每個顏色,一起工作,
20:33
fought戰鬥 alongside並肩 each other,
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並肩作戰,
20:36
fought戰鬥 against反對 a common共同 enemy敵人, didn't fight鬥爭 against反對 each other.
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是與共同的的敵人作戰,不是互相攻擊,
20:41
How can that not make you feel optimistic樂觀 for the future未來?
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這怎麼不使你對未來感到樂觀呢?
20:46
Thank you very much.
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謝謝.
20:48
(Applause掌聲)
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(掌聲)
Translated by chufung dou
Reviewed by Wang-Ju Tsai

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Larry Brilliant - Epidemiologist, philanthropist
TED Prize winner Larry Brilliant has spent his career solving the ills of today -- from overseeing the last smallpox cases to saving millions from blindness -- and building technologies of the future. Now, as Chair of the Skoll Global Threats Fund, he's redefining how we solve the world's biggest problems.

Why you should listen

Larry Brilliant's career path, as unlikely as it is inspirational, has proven worthy of his surname. Trained as a doctor, he was living in a Himalayan monastery in the early 1970s when his guru told him he should help rid the world of smallpox. He joined the World Health Organization's eradication project, directed efforts to eliminate the disease in India and eventually presided over the last case of smallpox on the planet.

Not content with beating a single disease, he founded the nonprofit Seva Foundation, which has cured more than two million people of blindness in 15 countries through innovative surgery, self-sufficient eye care systems and low-cost manufacturing of intraocular lenses. Outside the medical field, he found time to cofound the legendary online community The Well, and run two public tech companies. Time and WIRED magazines call him a "technology visionary."

His 2006 TED Prize wish drew on both sides of his career: He challenged the TED community to help him build a global early-response system to spot new diseases as quickly as they emerge. Called InSTEDD, the system has grown into a network of 100 digital detection partners, which provide tools that help the UN, WHO and CDC track potential pandemics. 

Shortly after he won the TED Prize, Google executives asked Brilliant to run their new philanthropic arm, Google.org. So, between consulting on the WHO's polio eradication project and designing a disease-surveillance network, he harnessed Google's brains and billions in a mix of for-profit and nonprofit ventures tackling the global problems of disease, poverty and climate change. Today, Brilliant is Chair of the Skoll Global Threats Fund, where he heads a team whose mission is to confront global threats imperiling humanity: pandemics, climate change, water security, nuclear proliferation and Middle East conflict.

More profile about the speaker
Larry Brilliant | Speaker | TED.com