TEDxClaremontColleges
Talithia Williams: Own your body's data
泰莉西雅·威廉斯: 擁有自己身體的數據
Filmed:
Readability: 3.5
1,717,214 views
新型的高科技自我監測裝置（測量每日心跳、睡眠、走路步數）似乎都把目標顧客鎖定競賽選手，不過統計學家泰莉西雅·威廉斯以令人懾服的方式，告訴我們每個人都該測量並記錄自己身體每日的簡單數據，因為我們的數據可以比醫生揭露更多關於自己身體的訊息。
Talithia Williams - Statistician
Talithia Williams builds statistical models that study the spatial and temporal structure of data. Full bio
Talithia Williams builds statistical models that study the spatial and temporal structure of data. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
我從小就喜歡
00:12
As a kid I always loved information
0
860
2879
從數據取得資訊
00:15
that I could get from data
1
3739
1848
00:17
and the stories that could be told with numbers.
2
5587
3042
以及用數字所傳遞的故事
00:20
I remember, growing up, I'd be frustrated at
3
8629
2284
我還記得成長的過程中
對於我爸媽用數字欺騙我感到沮喪
00:22
how my own parents would lie to me using numbers.
4
10913
5546
00:28
"Talithia, if I've told you once
I've told you a thousand times."
I've told you a thousand times."
5
16459
4984
泰莉西雅，我跟你說一次
就代表我已經跟你說過一千次了
就代表我已經跟你說過一千次了
00:33
No dad, you've only told me 17 times
6
21443
3892
爸，你只跟我說17次而已
00:37
and twice it wasn't my fault. (Laughter)
7
25335
3162
其中有兩次還不是我的錯 (笑聲)
00:40
I think that is one of the reasons I got a Ph.D. in statistics.
8
28497
3164
我覺得這是我拿到統計學博士的其中一個理由
我總是想知道
00:43
I always wanted to know,
9
31661
908
00:44
what are people trying to hide with numbers?
10
32569
3186
大家究竟想用數字隱藏什麼事情
00:47
As a statistician,
11
35755
1183
身為統計學家
00:48
I want people to show me the data
12
36938
3853
我希望大家能拿數據給我看
00:52
so I can decide for myself.
13
40791
2335
這樣我才能替自己下決定
00:55
Donald and I were pregnant with our third child
14
43126
3049
唐納和我當時有了第三個小孩
00:58
and we were at about 41 and a half weeks,
15
46175
2734
那時候寶寶41週半
01:00
what some of you may refer to as being overdue.
16
48909
3377
有些人會說這已經過了預產期
01:04
Statisticians, we call that
17
52286
1835
我們統計學家稱這為
01:06
being within the 95 percent confidence interval.
18
54121
2686
95% 以下的信賴區間
01:08
(Laughter)
19
56807
1866
(笑聲)
01:10
And at this point in the process
20
58673
2278
在這個階段
01:12
we had to come in every couple of days
21
60951
2193
每幾天我們就要來醫院
01:15
to do a stress test on the baby,
22
63144
1808
讓寶寶接受壓力測試
01:16
and this is just routine,
23
64952
1182
這只是例行公事而已
01:18
it tests whether or not the baby
is feeling any type of undue stress.
is feeling any type of undue stress.
24
66134
4586
這種測試是為了知道
寶寶是否承受太大的壓力
寶寶是否承受太大的壓力
01:22
And you are rarely, if ever, seen by your actual doctor,
25
70720
3393
通常在醫院很難遇到自己本來的醫生
01:26
just whoever happens to be
working at the hospital that day.
working at the hospital that day.
26
74113
3167
都是由剛好當天值班的醫生看診
01:29
So we go in for a stress test and after 20 minutes
27
77280
2746
於是我們就進去診間做壓力測試
20分鐘後醫生出來，他說：
01:32
the doctor comes out and he says,
28
80026
3498
01:35
"Your baby is under stress, we need to induce you."
29
83524
5555
你的寶寶承受胎壓了
我們要幫你催生
我們要幫你催生
01:41
Now, as a statistician, what's my response?
30
89079
4619
身為統計學家，我的回答是什麼呢?
01:45
Show me the data!
31
93698
3672
就是讓我看數據!
01:49
So then he proceeds to tell us
32
97370
2702
接下來醫生告訴我們
01:52
the baby's heart rate trace went from 18 minutes,
33
100072
2425
寶寶的心率追蹤持續 18 分鐘
01:54
the baby's heart rate was in the normal zone
34
102497
1971
寶寶的心率落在正常的區間內
01:56
and for two minutes it was in what appeared to be
35
104468
2953
但有兩分鐘的時間內變成是
01:59
my heart rate zone and I said,
36
107421
3710
我的心率區間
02:03
"Is it possible that maybe this was my heart rate?
37
111131
2366
我就問 有可能這是我的心率嗎?
02:05
I was moving around a little bit,
38
113497
1995
我有稍微移動
02:07
it's hard to lay still on your back,
39
115492
2298
讓懷孕 41 週半的孕婦
02:09
41 weeks pregnant for 20 minutes.
40
117790
2518
躺平 20 分鐘真的很困難
02:12
Maybe it was shifting around."
41
120308
2173
也許檢查的位置稍微跑掉了
02:14
He said, "Well, we don't want to take any chances."
42
122481
4976
醫生說 我們不想要冒任何險
02:19
I said okay.
43
127457
1260
我說當然好
02:20
I said, "What if I was at 36 weeks
44
128717
1719
我又問 要是我現在懷孕 36 週
02:22
with this same data?
45
130436
1809
也有跟這情況一樣的數據
02:24
Would your decision be to induce?"
46
132245
3879
你還會決定要催生嗎？
02:28
"Well, no, I would wait until you were at least
47
136124
3568
不，我會等到你至少 38 週
02:31
38 weeks, but you are almost 42,
48
139692
2010
可是你現在都快 42 週了
02:33
there is no reason to leave that baby inside,
49
141702
2007
根本沒有理由
還要把寶寶留在你肚子裡
還要把寶寶留在你肚子裡
02:35
let's get you a room."
50
143709
1951
讓我們幫你準備病房吧
02:37
I said, "Well, why don't we just do it again?
51
145660
6581
我說 我們為什麼不重頭再來一次？
02:44
We can collect more data.
52
152241
1721
我們可以收集更多數據
02:45
I can try to be really still for 20 minutes.
53
153962
2411
我可以試著穩穩地躺 20 分種
02:48
We can average the two and see
54
156373
2683
我們再平均這兩次的數據
02:51
what that means. (Laughter)
55
159056
2682
才能確定數據代表的意思 (笑聲)
02:53
And he goes,
56
161738
3647
他接著說
02:57
"Ma'am, I just don't want you to have a miscarriage."
57
165385
7049
女士，我不希望你流產
03:04
That makes three of us.
58
172434
3132
我們三個人都不想啊
03:07
And then he says,
59
175566
1154
他接著說
03:08
"Your chances of having a miscarriage double
60
176720
4118
過了預產期後，你流產的可能性
03:12
when you go past your due date. Let's get you a room."
61
180838
3767
整整多了一倍
讓我們幫你準備病房吧
讓我們幫你準備病房吧
03:16
Wow. So now as a statistician, what's my response?
62
184605
6287
哇，那身為統計學家
我的回答是什麼呢?
我的回答是什麼呢?
03:22
Show me the data!
63
190892
1348
讓我看數據!
03:24
Dude, you're talking chances,
64
192240
1205
老兄，你說可能性
03:25
I do chances all day long, tell me all about chances.
65
193445
2256
我每天都在分析可能性
還輪得到你告訴我
還輪得到你告訴我
03:27
Let's talk chances. (Laughter)
66
195701
1822
那我們就來談可能性 (笑聲)
03:29
Let's talk chances.
67
197523
1965
我們就來談可能性
03:31
So I say, "Okay, great.
68
199488
1201
於是我說 那好
03:32
Do I go from a 30-percent
chance to a 60-percent chance?
chance to a 60-percent chance?
69
200689
3901
我流產可能性從 30%
提升至 60% 的意思嗎?
提升至 60% 的意思嗎?
03:36
Where are we here with this miscarriage thing?
70
204590
2551
流產的可能性到底是多少?
03:39
And he goes, "Not quite, but it doubles,
71
207141
3296
他說 不完全是，不過可能性加倍
03:42
and we really just want what's best for the baby."
72
210437
4982
我們只想為寶寶提供最好的方法
03:47
Undaunted, I try a different angle.
73
215419
2163
我一點也不害怕
試著用另一個角度思考
試著用另一個角度思考
03:49
I said, "Okay, out of 1,000 full-term pregnant women,
74
217582
5507
我說 那一千位足月孕婦中
03:55
how many of them are going to miscarry
75
223089
2527
有幾位會在預產期前
03:57
just before their due date?
76
225616
1795
就流產？
03:59
And then he looks at me and looks at Donald,
77
227411
2848
醫生看著我和唐納
04:02
and he goes, about one in 1,000.
78
230259
4703
他說大概一千位之中只有一位
04:06
I said, "Okay, so of those 1,000 women, how many
79
234962
2830
我說 那這一千位足月孕婦
04:09
are going to miscarry just after their due date?"
80
237792
4858
有多少人會在過了預產期後就流產？
04:14
"About two." (Laughter)
81
242650
3572
大約兩位 (笑聲)
04:18
I said, "Okay, so you are telling me that my chances
82
246222
2044
我說 那麼你說的可能性
04:20
go from a 0.1-percent chance
83
248266
3947
是從 0.1%
04:24
to a 0.2-percent chance."
84
252213
4246
上升至 0.2% 對吧
04:28
Okay, so at this point the data is not convincing us
85
256459
2298
所以在這個點上
這個數據無法說服我們夫妻倆
這個數據無法說服我們夫妻倆
04:30
that we need to be induced,
86
258757
1628
讓我們催生寶寶
04:32
and so then we proceed to have a conversation
87
260385
1949
接下來我們討論
04:34
about how inductions lead to a higher rate
88
262334
2648
催生讓剖腹產的機率變高了
04:36
of Cesarean sections, and if at all
possible we'd like to avoid that.
possible we'd like to avoid that.
89
264982
3991
如果有可能的話，我們就盡可能要避開它
04:40
And then I said,
90
268973
1252
於是我就說
04:42
"And I really don't think my due date is accurate."
91
270225
2880
我覺得我的預產期一點也不準確
04:45
(Laughter)
92
273105
2600
(笑聲)
04:47
And so this really stunned him
93
275705
2740
醫生聽到後有些錯愕
04:50
and he looked sort of puzzled
94
278445
1650
他看起來有點困惑
04:52
and I said, "You may not know this,
95
280095
2132
我就說 你可能不知道
04:54
but pregnancy due dates are calculated
96
282227
1581
懷孕預產期的計算方法
04:55
assuming that you have a standard 28-day cycle,
97
283808
2538
是建立在你有標準28天的經期
04:58
and my cycle ranges —
98
286346
1402
而我的經期不固定
04:59
sometimes it's 27, sometimes it's up to 38 —
99
287748
3547
有時候 27 天，有時候到 38 天
05:03
and I have been collecting the data to prove it.
100
291295
3154
而我也一直收集數據來證明這一切
05:06
(Laughter)
101
294449
3784
(笑聲)
05:10
And so we ended up leaving the hospital
that day without being induced.
that day without being induced.
102
298233
5837
結果當天我們沒有進行
催生手術就離開醫院
催生手術就離開醫院
05:16
We actually had to sign a waiver
to walk out of the hospital.
to walk out of the hospital.
103
304070
6193
也必須要簽下切結書
才能夠離開醫院
才能夠離開醫院
05:22
And I'm not advocating that you not listen to your doctors,
104
310263
3688
我並不是要鼓吹大家不聽醫生的話
05:25
because even with our first child,
105
313951
1918
因為即使是我們的第一個孩子
05:27
we were induced at 38 weeks; cervical fluid was low.
106
315869
3642
也是在 38 週時就催生
是因為子宮頸黏液偏低
是因為子宮頸黏液偏低
05:31
I'm not anti-medical intervention.
107
319511
2458
所以我並不反對醫學的介入
05:33
But why were confident to leave that day?
108
321969
2864
不過那天我們為什麼可以
自信滿滿地離開醫院呢?
自信滿滿地離開醫院呢?
05:36
Well, we had data that told a different story.
109
324833
3650
這是因為我們的數據講的
是不同的故事
是不同的故事
05:40
We had been collecting data for six years.
110
328483
5008
過去六年我們持續收集數據
05:45
I had this temperature data,
111
333491
2298
我所記錄的溫度數據
05:47
and it told a different story.
112
335789
1275
又是另外一個故事了
05:49
In fact, we could probably pretty
accurately estimate conception.
accurately estimate conception.
113
337064
7413
其實我們應該可以
準確地預測受孕時間
準確地預測受孕時間
05:56
Yeah, that's a story you want to tell
114
344477
1902
這種故事你就會想要
05:58
at your kid's wedding reception. (Laughter)
115
346379
3252
在小孩婚宴上說了 (笑聲)
06:01
I remember like it was yesterday.
116
349631
3693
這好像昨天才剛發生
06:05
My temperature was a sizzling 97.8 degrees
117
353324
2641
當我看著你爸的雙眼時
06:07
as I stared into your father's eyes. (Laughter)
118
355965
4154
我的體溫是發燙的 36.5 度 (笑聲)
06:12
Oh, yeah. Twenty-two more years, we're telling that story.
119
360119
6812
是的，過了 22 年後
我們就會說這個故事
我們就會說這個故事
06:18
But we were confident to leave
because we had been collecting data.
because we had been collecting data.
120
366931
3051
我們勇敢地離開醫院是因為
我們都一直都在收集數據
我們都一直都在收集數據
06:21
Now, what does that data look like?
121
369984
1606
這些數據顯示些什麼呢?
06:23
Here's a standard chart
122
371590
2837
這是女性月經週期中
06:26
of a woman's waking body temperature
123
374427
3302
基礎體溫的
06:29
during the course of a cycle.
124
377729
1517
標準圖表
06:31
So from the beginning of the menstrual cycle
125
379246
1453
從此次月經週期的開始
06:32
till the beginning of the next.
126
380699
1352
到下一次月經來臨前
06:34
You'll see that the temperature is not random.
127
382051
2821
你會發現溫度是規律的
06:36
Clearly there is a low pattern
128
384872
2064
在月經週期開始時
06:38
at the beginning of her cycle
129
386936
1999
會很明顯地看到溫度偏低
06:40
and then you see this jump and then a higher
130
388935
2499
之後會看到溫度拉高
06:43
set of temperatures at the end of her cycle.
131
391434
2278
接近月經週期結束前又一波高溫
06:45
So what's happening here?
132
393712
1421
這裡發生什麼事?
06:47
What is that data telling you?
133
395133
2606
這些數據表達些什麼呢?
06:49
Well, ladies, at the beginning of our cycle,
134
397739
2699
女士們，在你們月經週期一開始時
06:52
the hormone estrogen is dominant and that estrogen
135
400438
3342
荷爾蒙雌激素主導你的身體
06:55
causes a suppression of your body temperature.
136
403780
3809
雌激素會幫身體降溫
06:59
And at ovulation, your body releases an egg
137
407589
3537
在排卵期時，你的身體會排卵
07:03
and progesterone takes over, pro-gestation.
138
411126
5015
此時黃體激素主導身體，黃體-激素
07:08
And so your body heats up in anticipation
139
416141
2352
你的體溫會預先升高
07:10
of housing this new little fertilized egg.
140
418493
3786
為這顆小小的新受精卵提供居住地
07:14
So why this temperature jump?
141
422279
2732
那為什麼溫度會突然升高呢?
07:17
Well, think about when a bird sits on her eggs.
142
425011
3676
試想有隻鳥坐在牠的蛋上面
07:20
Why is she sitting on them?
143
428687
1466
為什麼要坐在蛋的上面?
07:22
She wants to keep them warm,
144
430153
1937
因為鳥媽媽要讓蛋保持溫暖
07:24
protect them and keep them warm.
145
432090
1504
保護蛋並且讓蛋維持溫度
07:25
Ladies, this is exactly what our bodies do every month,
146
433594
2271
各位女士，這就是我們身體
每個月所做的事情
每個月所做的事情
07:27
they heat up in anticipation
147
435865
2091
身體會先預熱
07:29
of keeping a new little life warm.
148
437956
3136
才能讓這個新生命保持溫暖
07:33
And if nothing happens, if you are not pregnant,
149
441092
2930
如果沒有任何事情發生
假使你沒有懷孕
假使你沒有懷孕
07:36
then estrogen takes back over and
that cycle starts all over again.
that cycle starts all over again.
150
444022
4542
雌激素就拿回主控權
所有週期又會重新再開始一次
所有週期又會重新再開始一次
07:40
But if you do get pregnant, sometimes you
151
448564
1947
不過要是妳懷孕了，有時候
07:42
actually see another shift in your temperatures
152
450511
2544
你會看到體溫又有變化
07:45
and it stays elevated for those whole nine months.
153
453055
3287
在懷孕的九個月內體溫會偏高
07:48
That's why you see those pregnant
women just sweating and hot,
women just sweating and hot,
154
456342
3325
這就是為什麼你會發現
懷孕婦女都在流汗又覺得熱
懷孕婦女都在流汗又覺得熱
07:51
because their temperatures are high.
155
459667
3378
這是因為她們的體溫偏高
07:55
Here's a chart that we had about three or four years ago.
156
463045
4369
這是三、四年前我們用的圖表
07:59
We were really very excited about this chart.
157
467414
2020
我們對這圖表真的很開心
08:01
You'll see the low temperature level
158
469434
2536
你可以看見這低溫的數據
08:03
and then a shift and for about five days,
159
471970
3042
之後溫度轉變，並且持續五天
08:07
that's about the time it takes for the egg to travel
160
475012
2459
這時候卵子出發
08:09
down the fallopian tube and implant,
161
477471
2447
順著輸卵管而下然後著床
08:11
and then you see those temperatures
start to go up a little bit.
start to go up a little bit.
162
479918
3641
之後你會發現溫度又會往上提升
08:15
And in fact, we had a second temperature shift,
163
483559
3213
這是第二次溫度的改變
08:18
confirmed with a pregnancy test
that were indeed pregnant
that were indeed pregnant
164
486772
4060
透過驗孕，我真的懷孕了
08:22
with our first child, very exciting.
165
490832
3081
那是我們的第一個孩子
我們非常興奮
我們非常興奮
08:25
Until a couple of days later
166
493913
2031
直到幾天後
08:27
I saw some spotting and then I noticed heavy blood flow,
167
495944
4941
我看到點狀出血
之後感覺到一股大量的血流下來
之後感覺到一股大量的血流下來
08:32
and we had in fact had an early stage miscarriage.
168
500885
4359
其實我遇到了懷孕初期的流產
08:37
Had I not been taking my temperature
169
505244
3870
這樣看起來要是我沒量體溫的話
08:41
I really would have just thought
my period was late that month,
my period was late that month,
170
509114
3898
我可能只會覺得那個月的經期晚來而已
08:45
but we actually had data to show
171
513012
1808
不過我們的數據顯示出
08:46
that we had miscarried this baby,
172
514820
2627
我們已經失去這個寶寶了
08:49
and even though this data revealed a really
173
517447
1833
即使這數據也讓我們看到
08:51
unfortunate event in our lives,
174
519280
1784
我們生命中非常不幸的一件事
08:53
it was information that we could then take to our doctor.
175
521064
2467
我們之後拿著這些資訊給醫生看
08:55
So if there was a fertility issue or some problem,
176
523531
2628
所以要是有任何生育問題或其他狀況
08:58
I had data to show:
177
526159
1255
我就有數據可以給別人看
08:59
Look, we got pregnant, our temperature shifted,
178
527414
2347
你看，我懷孕，溫度也有改變
09:01
we somehow lost this baby.
179
529761
1684
卻不知道為何失去這個寶寶
09:03
What is it that we can do to help prevent this problem?
180
531445
3360
我們能夠做些什麼
預防這種問題再次發生呢?
預防這種問題再次發生呢?
09:06
And it's not just about temperatures
181
534805
3521
這不只是關於體溫
09:10
and it's not just about fertility;
182
538326
2741
也不只是跟生育有關
09:13
we can use data about our bodies to tell us a lot of things.
183
541067
3888
而是身體的數據能夠
讓我們知道很多事情
讓我們知道很多事情
09:16
For instance, did you know that taking
your temperature can tell you a lot
your temperature can tell you a lot
184
544955
3830
像是，你知道量體溫可以知道
09:20
about the condition of your thyroid?
185
548785
2139
甲狀腺的狀況嗎?
09:22
So, your thyroid works a lot like
the thermostat in your house.
the thermostat in your house.
186
550924
4015
甲狀腺的功能像跟你家裡的中央空調一樣
09:26
There is an optimal temperature
that you want in your house;
that you want in your house;
187
554939
2218
我們總是希望房子裡維持最佳的溫度
09:29
you set your thermostat.
188
557157
1524
所以我們會設定中央空調
09:30
When it gets too cold in the house,
your thermostat kicks in
your thermostat kicks in
189
558681
2494
當房子裡的溫度下降
中央空調就會開始運轉
中央空調就會開始運轉
09:33
and says, "Hey, we need to blow some heat around."
190
561175
3218
並說 我們把將熱氣送進來
09:36
Or if it gets too hot, your thermostat
191
564393
1669
如果房子裡太熱，中央空調
09:38
registers, "Turn the A.C. on. Cool us off."
192
566062
3557
就會說 開冷氣吧，讓大家涼快
09:41
That's exactly how your thyroid works in your body.
193
569619
3797
這就是甲狀腺在你身體裡的功能
09:45
Your thyroid tries to keep an optimal temperature
194
573416
2700
甲狀腺會為身體維持
最適當的體溫
09:48
for your body.
195
576116
1028
09:49
If it gets too cold, your thyroid
says, "Hey, we need to heat up."
says, "Hey, we need to heat up."
196
577144
2482
如果溫度太低，甲狀腺就會說
嘿，我們要升溫
嘿，我們要升溫
09:51
If it gets too hot, your thyroid cools you down.
197
579626
3188
如果溫度太高
甲狀腺就會幫你降溫
甲狀腺就會幫你降溫
09:54
But what happens when your
thyroid is not functioning well?
thyroid is not functioning well?
198
582814
4406
不過，要是你的甲狀腺
失去功用會怎麼樣呢?
失去功用會怎麼樣呢?
09:59
When it doesn't function, then it shows up
199
587220
2367
甲狀腺壞的時候，那麼你的體溫
10:01
in your body temperatures,
200
589587
1186
就會顯示這個狀況
10:02
they tend to be lower than normal or very erratic.
201
590773
2655
你的體溫會比平常還要低
或是非常不規律
或是非常不規律
10:05
And so by collecting this data
202
593428
1270
所以收集這些數據
10:06
you can find out information about your thyroid.
203
594698
2987
你就可以知道甲狀腺的訊息
10:09
Now, what is it, if you had a thyroid
problem and you went to the doctor,
problem and you went to the doctor,
204
597685
3564
現在要是你有了甲狀腺問題
然後你去看醫生
然後你去看醫生
10:13
your doctor would actually test the amount of
205
601249
2433
你的醫生其實只會檢測血液中
10:15
thyroid stimulating hormone in your blood.
206
603682
2938
促甲狀腺激素的值
10:18
Fine. But the problem with that test is
207
606620
4183
不錯，可是這個檢測的問題在於
10:22
it doesn't tell you how active the hormone is in your body.
208
610803
2765
這並不會跟你說身體內
激素的活躍度有多高
激素的活躍度有多高
10:25
So you might have a lot of hormone present,
209
613568
2049
所以你可能身體裡有非常多的激素
10:27
but it might not be actively working to regulate
210
615617
1748
卻沒有辦法活躍的運作
10:29
your body temperature.
211
617365
1248
幫你調節身體的溫度
10:30
So just by collecting your temperature every day,
212
618613
1749
所以只要每天收集你的體溫
10:32
you get information about the condition of your thyroid.
213
620362
3620
你就可以知道關於甲狀腺狀況的訊息
10:35
So, what if you don't want to take
your temperature every day?
your temperature every day?
214
623982
2481
那要是你不想要每天量體溫呢?
10:38
I advocate that you do,
215
626463
1558
我還是建議量體溫
10:40
but there are tons of other things you could take.
216
628021
1855
不過也有其他東西可以記錄
10:41
You could take your blood pressure,
you could take your weight —
you could take your weight —
217
629876
2805
你可以記下血壓、記下你的體重
10:44
yeah, who's excited about
218
632681
1590
當然，每天量體重
10:46
taking their weight every day? (Laughter)
219
634271
3537
誰不開心啊? (笑聲)
10:49
Early on in our marriage, Donald had a stuffy nose
220
637808
4791
我們剛結婚的時候
唐納會鼻塞
唐納會鼻塞
10:54
and he had been taking a slew of medications
221
642599
3120
他嘗試過一堆的醫療方法
10:57
to try to relieve his stuffy nose, to no avail.
222
645719
3999
試著要減輕鼻塞的狀況，不過都沒效
11:01
And so, that night he comes and
he wakes me up and he says,
he wakes me up and he says,
223
649718
4239
所以，有一晚他上了床
然後搖醒我並說
然後搖醒我並說
11:05
"Honey, I can't breath out of my nose."
224
653957
3807
親愛的，我不能用鼻子呼吸了
11:09
And I roll over and I look, and I said,
"Well, can you breath out of your mouth?"
"Well, can you breath out of your mouth?"
225
657764
4818
我翻身過去，看了一下
我說 那你可以用嘴巴呼吸嗎?
我說 那你可以用嘴巴呼吸嗎?
11:14
(Laughter)
226
662582
1478
(笑聲)
然後他說
11:16
And he goes, "Yes, but I can't breath out of my nose!"
227
664060
7080
可以，不過我不能用鼻子呼吸！
所以就像每位好太太一樣，
11:23
And so like any good wife, I rush him
228
671140
3020
在凌晨兩點的時候
11:26
to the emergency room
229
674160
1835
11:27
at 2 o'clock in the morning.
230
675995
2432
我趕快帶著他衝到急診室
11:30
And the whole time I'm driving and I'm thinking,
231
678427
3470
整路上開著車時，我都在想
11:33
you can't die on me now.
232
681897
2849
你現在可不能死
11:36
We just got married,
233
684746
2170
我們才剛結婚欸
11:38
people will think I killed you! (Laughter)
234
686916
4458
大家一定會以為是我殺了你! (笑聲)
11:43
And so, we get to the emergency
room, and the nurse sees us,
room, and the nurse sees us,
235
691374
3673
我們抵達了急診室
護士看到我們
護士看到我們
11:47
and he can't breath out of his nose, and so
236
695047
2621
因為我先生不能用鼻子呼吸
11:49
she brings us to the back and the doctor says,
237
697668
2083
所以護士帶我們到後方，醫生說
11:51
"What seems to be the problem?" and
he goes, "I can't breath out of my nose."
he goes, "I can't breath out of my nose."
238
699751
3189
有什麼問題嗎?
我先生說 我不能用鼻子呼吸
我先生說 我不能用鼻子呼吸
11:54
And he said, "You can't breath out of your nose?
239
702940
2049
醫生說 你不能用鼻子呼吸?
11:56
No, but he can breath out of his mouth. (Laughter)
240
704989
5877
沒辦法，可是他可以用嘴巴呼吸 (笑聲)
12:02
He takes a step back and he looks at both of us
241
710866
2642
醫生退了一步，看著我們倆
12:05
and he says "Sir, I think I know the problem.
242
713508
3866
他說 先生，我知道你的問題了
12:09
You're having a heart attack.
243
717374
1436
你心臟病發作
12:10
I'm going to order an EKG and a CAT scan
244
718810
2051
我要馬上幫你安排
心電圖和電腦斷層掃描
心電圖和電腦斷層掃描
12:12
for you immediately."
245
720861
3342
12:16
And we are thinking,
246
724203
1628
我們就在想
12:17
no, no, no. It's not a heart attack. He can breathe,
247
725831
2940
不不不，這絕對不是
心臟病發作他可以呼吸
心臟病發作他可以呼吸
12:20
just out of his mouth. No, no, no, no, no.
248
728771
4997
不過只能用嘴巴呼吸
不...不...不...不...不...
不...不...不...不...不...
12:25
And so we go back and forth with this doctor
249
733768
2263
所以我們來來回回和醫生談
12:28
because we think this is the incorrect diagnosis,
250
736031
2478
因為我們覺得這個診斷不正確
12:30
and he's like, "No really, it'll be fine, just calm down."
251
738509
3952
他卻表現出 不可能
一切會沒事的，你們冷靜
一切會沒事的，你們冷靜
12:34
And I'm thinking, how do you calm down?
But I don't think he's having a heart attack.
But I don't think he's having a heart attack.
252
742461
3919
我就想，要怎麼冷靜?
而且我不認為他是心臟病發作
而且我不認為他是心臟病發作
12:38
And so fortunately for us, this
doctor was at the end of the shift.
doctor was at the end of the shift.
253
746380
3241
還好我們很幸運
這位醫生剛好值班結束
這位醫生剛好值班結束
12:41
So this new doctor comes in, he sees us clearly
254
749621
2915
當新醫生進門後，他清楚地知道
12:44
distraught, with a husband who can't breath
255
752536
3001
我們很煩惱，煩惱著丈夫無法用
12:47
out of his nose. (Laughter)
256
755537
3102
鼻子呼吸 (笑聲)
12:50
And he starts asking us questions.
257
758639
2786
接下來他開始問我們問題
12:53
He says, "Well, do you two exercise?"
258
761425
4880
他問 你們兩位會運動嗎?
12:58
We ride our bikes, we go to the gym occasionally.
259
766305
7073
我們騎腳踏車，偶爾去健身房
13:05
(Laughter)
260
773378
1653
(笑聲)
13:07
We move around.
261
775031
2865
我們到處走來走去
13:09
And he says, "What were you doing
just before you came here?"
just before you came here?"
262
777896
2663
他又問 在你們來這前，做了什麼事?
13:12
I'm thinking, I was sleeping, honestly.
263
780559
2712
我就想，我那時在睡覺，這是真的
13:15
But okay, what was Donald doing just before?
264
783271
2831
很好，不過唐納在這之前做了什麼事?
13:18
So Donald goes into this slew
of medications he was taking.
of medications he was taking.
265
786102
3548
唐納當時忙著服用一堆的藥
13:21
He lists, "I took this decongestant
and then I took this nasal spray,"
and then I took this nasal spray,"
266
789650
2962
他列出藥名並說 我吃了解充血藥
然後用這個鼻噴劑
然後用這個鼻噴劑
13:24
and then all of a sudden a lightbulb goes off and he says,
267
792612
1995
突然間靈光一閃，醫生說
13:26
"Oh! You should never mix this
decongestant with this nasal spray.
decongestant with this nasal spray.
268
794615
3627
哦! 你永遠都不該把
解充血藥跟鼻噴劑混在一起用
解充血藥跟鼻噴劑混在一起用
13:30
Clogs you up every time. Here, take this one instead."
269
798242
2817
這樣每次鼻子都會塞住，換成這個藥吧
13:33
He gives us a prescription.
270
801059
2266
醫生給我們新的處方
13:35
We're looking at each other, and I looked at the doctor,
271
803325
1990
我們看著對方，然後我看著醫生
13:37
and I said, "Why is it that it seems like you
272
805315
2226
並說 為什麼看起來似乎
13:39
were able to accurately diagnose his condition,
273
807541
2411
你能夠準確地診斷出他的症狀
13:41
but this previous doctor wanted to order
274
809952
2216
但是前一位醫生卻想幫他安排
13:44
an EKG and a CAT scan?"
275
812168
2506
心電圖和電腦斷層掃描?
13:46
And he looks at us and says,
276
814674
2607
醫生看著我們並說
13:49
"Well, when a 350-pound man walks in the
emergency room and says he can't breath,
emergency room and says he can't breath,
277
817281
4218
當一位350磅重的男子走進急診室
並說他無法呼吸的話
並說他無法呼吸的話
13:53
you assume he's having a heart attack
278
821499
1764
你就會認定他心臟病發作
13:55
and you ask questions later."
279
823263
3949
晚點才會再問他問題
13:59
Now, emergency room doctors are
trained to make decisions quickly,
trained to make decisions quickly,
280
827212
5720
現在急診室醫生的訓練
都是要他們能快速做決策
都是要他們能快速做決策
14:04
but not always accurately.
281
832932
2091
但不能永遠都那麼準確
14:07
And so had we had some information
282
835023
1549
所以要是我們將自己
14:08
about our heart health to share with him,
283
836572
2394
心臟健康的狀況分享給醫生
14:10
maybe we would have gotten a
better diagnosis the first time.
better diagnosis the first time.
284
838966
3775
或許在第一時間我們
就能有更好的診斷
就能有更好的診斷
14:14
I want you to consider the following chart,
285
842741
2232
我要請你們仔細看接下來的圖表
14:16
of systolic blood pressure measurements
286
844973
1954
這是血壓收縮壓測量
14:18
from October 2010 to July 2012.
287
846927
4072
2010年10月到2012年7月這段期間的
14:22
You'll see that these measurements start
288
850999
1693
你們可以發現這些測量值一開始
14:24
in the prehypertension/hypertension zone,
289
852692
3668
都在高血壓前期/高血壓區域內
14:28
but over about the course of a year and a half
290
856360
2586
歷經一年半的時間後
14:30
they move into the normal zone.
291
858946
2645
這些數據跑到正常值的區間內
14:33
This is about the heart rate of a healthy 16-year-old.
292
861591
4109
這個心跳率大約跟
16 歲身體健康的人一樣
16 歲身體健康的人一樣
14:37
What story is this data telling you?
293
865700
4031
這些數據又說了什麼樣的故事?
14:41
Obviously it's the data from someone
294
869731
2881
很顯然地，這個人的數據
14:44
who's made a drastic transformation,
295
872612
2673
有了巨大的改變
14:47
and fortunately for us, that person
happens to be here today.
happens to be here today.
296
875285
5158
對我們來說也很幸運
這位人士今天也有出席
這位人士今天也有出席
14:52
So that 350-pound guy that walked
into the emergency room with me
into the emergency room with me
297
880443
4254
那位跟我一起走進急診室
的 350 磅重男士
的 350 磅重男士
14:56
is now an even sexier and healthier
298
884697
2972
他現在是更性感及更健康的
225 磅重的人，那是他的血壓追蹤表
14:59
225-pound guy, and that's his blood pressure trace.
299
887669
6688
所以在過去一年半的時間內
15:06
So over the course of that year and a half
300
894357
3461
唐納改變飲食習慣
15:09
Donald's eating changed
301
897818
1569
15:11
and our exercise regimen changed,
302
899387
1991
我們也改變運動養生方法
15:13
and his heart rate responded,
303
901378
2790
他的心率以及
15:16
his blood pressure responded to that change
304
904168
1502
血壓都呼應著
15:17
that he made in his body.
305
905670
2299
他為身體所做的改變
15:19
So what's the take-home message
306
907969
1978
所以今天在你們離開前
15:21
that I want you to leave with today?
307
909947
3714
這演講的重點是什麼呢?
15:25
By taking ownership of your data just like we've done,
308
913661
4374
跟我們做一樣的事
就可以擁有自己的數據
就可以擁有自己的數據
15:30
just by taking this daily measurements about yourself,
309
918035
3947
只要每天測量自己的身體
15:33
you become the expert on your body.
310
921982
2509
你就能當自己身體的專家
15:36
You become the authority.
311
924491
2002
你就是身體的主人
15:38
It's not hard to do.
312
926493
2423
要做到這樣並不難
15:40
You don't have to have a Ph.D. in statistics
313
928916
1920
你不需要先成為統計學博士
15:42
to be an expert in yourself.
314
930836
1332
才能懂自己
你不需要先取得醫學學位
15:44
You don't have to have a medical degree
315
932168
1441
15:45
to be your body's expert.
316
933609
2126
才能懂自己的身體
15:47
Medical doctors, they're experts on the population,
317
935735
3419
醫生是懂大眾的專家
但你是自己身體的專家
15:51
but you are the expert on yourself.
318
939154
2278
所以如果能兩個人一起合作
15:53
And so when two of you come together,
319
941432
1910
你和醫生兩位專家一起
15:55
when two experts come together,
320
943342
1970
15:57
the two of you are able to make a better decision
321
945312
2795
兩個人所做出的決定
會勝過醫生一個人的決定
16:00
than just your doctor alone.
322
948107
2000
16:02
Now that you understand the power of information
323
950107
3767
現在你懂了資訊帶來的力量
都只要透過收集自己的數據
16:05
that you can get through personal data collection,
324
953874
1871
16:07
I'd like you all to stand and raise your right hand.
325
955745
3669
我想要請大家站起來並舉起你的右手
16:11
(Laughter)
326
959414
2559
(笑聲)
16:13
Yes, get it up.
327
961973
2120
對，請站起來
16:18
I challenge you to take ownership of your data.
328
966771
6908
我挑戰你們
成為自己身體數據的主人
成為自己身體數據的主人
16:25
And today, I hereby confer upon you
329
973679
3562
我在此授予你們
16:29
a TEDx associate's degree in elementary statistics
330
977241
4345
TEDx 初階統計學副學士學位
16:33
with a concentration in time-dependent data analysis
331
981586
4444
因你們專注花時間在分析數據上
16:38
with all the rights and privileges appertaining thereto.
332
986030
3713
以及其所屬權利與殊榮
16:41
And so the next time you are in your doctor's office,
333
989743
3476
所以當你們下次到醫生的辦公室
16:45
as newly inducted statisticians,
334
993219
3191
作為新上任的統計學家
16:48
what should always be your response?
335
996410
2510
你們的回答應該是什麼?
16:50
Audience: Show me the data!
Talithia Williams: I can't hear you!
Talithia Williams: I can't hear you!
336
998920
1832
觀眾: 讓我看數據!
泰莉西雅: 我聽不到!
泰莉西雅: 我聽不到!
16:52
Audience: Show me the data!
337
1000752
1768
觀眾: 讓我看數據!
16:54
TW: One more time!
338
1002520
1308
TW: 再說一次!
16:55
Audience: Show me the data!
339
1003828
1539
觀眾: 讓我看數據!
16:57
TW: Show me the data.
340
1005367
1182
TW: 讓我看數據
16:58
Thank you.
341
1006549
3021
謝謝大家
(掌聲)
17:01
(Applause)
342
1009570
4800
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Talithia Williams - StatisticianTalithia Williams builds statistical models that study the spatial and temporal structure of data.
Why you should listen
Dr. Talithia Williams is an Associate Professor of Mathematics at Harvey Mudd College. Her professional experiences include research appointments at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), the National Security Agency (NSA), and NASA. Dr. Williams develops statistical models that emphasize the spatial and temporal structure of data with environmental applications. She has been recognized for the development of a cataract model used to predict the cataract surgical rate for developing countries in Africa.
In addition to her academic accomplishments, Dr. Williams and her husband, Donald, actively teach and share foundational principles regarding the joys of Christian marriage. Dr. Williams’ talk will explore how each of us can begin to collect data about ourselves that can provide insight into our personal health.
Talithia Williams | Speaker | TED.com