TEDxPlaceDesNations
Bruce Aylward: Humanity vs. Ebola. How we could win a terrifying war
布魯斯•艾爾沃德: 人類對戰伊波拉：駭人戰爭中的制勝法寶
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“伊波拉病毒威脅著我們的人性，”世界衛生組織的布魯斯·艾爾沃德說。他用平靜的手法帶領我們重走伊波拉疫情爆發的過程 ﹣以及國際報警如何僅僅導致了問題以指數般增長。他分享四大關鍵性戰略，以擊敗伊波拉病毒 ﹣ 以及它們是如何成功。這四大戰略開始在利比理亞的洛法鎮開始奏效，那是在爆發的中心，但已經幾周內沒有新的病例記錄在案。布魯斯·艾爾沃德強調，我們並未贏得對伊波拉病毒的鬥爭，但是如果我們做正確的事情，就能更樂觀地看待我們的反擊流行病的能力。
Bruce Aylward - Epidemiologist
As the Assistant Director-General of the World Health Organization’s Polio and Emergencies Cluster, Bruce Aylward works to ensure that polio stays under control and that the world is prepared to respond to health crises. Full bio
As the Assistant Director-General of the World Health Organization’s Polio and Emergencies Cluster, Bruce Aylward works to ensure that polio stays under control and that the world is prepared to respond to health crises. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
When I was invited to give this talk
a couple of months ago,
a couple of months ago,
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幾個月前，我受邀來進行這場演講時
00:17
we discussed a number
of titles with the organizers,
of titles with the organizers,
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我們與主辦方探討了幾個題目
00:21
and a lot of different items were
kicked around and were discussed.
kicked around and were discussed.
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從多個角度考慮並討論了很多不同的可能
00:24
But nobody suggested this one,
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但沒有人建議用“擊敗伊波拉”
00:26
and the reason for that
was two months ago,
was two months ago,
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而其原因正是在兩個月前
00:29
Ebola was escalating exponentially
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伊波拉病毒以指數增長級滋生
00:32
and spreading over wider geographic areas
than we had ever seen,
than we had ever seen,
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蔓延到前所未見的廣大地區
00:36
and the world was terrified,
concerned and alarmed
concerned and alarmed
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而全世界都為之驚恐、擔憂、警惕
00:40
by this disease, in a way we've not
seen in recent history.
seen in recent history.
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其緊張程度在近代史上是前所未見的
00:44
But today, I can stand here
and I can talk to you about beating Ebola
and I can talk to you about beating Ebola
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但今天，我能夠站在這裡
與大家討論擊敗伊波拉這個話題
與大家討論擊敗伊波拉這個話題
00:51
because of people
whom you've never heard of,
whom you've never heard of,
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多虧了那些你們從未聽說過的人們
00:54
people like Peter Clement, a Liberian
doctor who's working in Lofa County,
doctor who's working in Lofa County,
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比如彼特•克萊蒙德
賴比瑞亞-洛法鎮的一名醫生
賴比瑞亞-洛法鎮的一名醫生
01:02
a place that many of you have
never heard of, probably, in Liberia.
never heard of, probably, in Liberia.
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你們當中許多人可能從未聽說過
賴比瑞亞的洛法鎮
賴比瑞亞的洛法鎮
01:07
The reason that Lofa County
is so important
is so important
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洛法鎮變得如此重要的原因
01:09
is because about five months ago,
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是因為在大約五個月前
01:12
when the epidemic was
just starting to escalate,
just starting to escalate,
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當伊波拉疫情剛剛開始蔓延時
01:16
Lofa County was right at the center,
the epicenter of this epidemic.
the epicenter of this epidemic.
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洛法鎮正是這場疫情的中心
01:21
At that time, MSF
and the treatment center there,
and the treatment center there,
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那時，駐紮在那裡的無國界醫生組織和治療中心
01:25
they were seeing dozens of patients
every single day,
every single day,
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每天都要見數十位病人
01:28
and these patients, these communities
were becoming more and more terrified
were becoming more and more terrified
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而這些病人，這些社區隨著時間流逝
01:32
as time went by, with this disease
and what it was doing to their families,
and what it was doing to their families,
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變得愈發恐懼，這場疾病
給他們的家人帶來了滅頂之災
給他們的家人帶來了滅頂之災
01:36
to their communities,
to their children, to their relatives.
to their children, to their relatives.
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還有他們的社區，孩子以及親戚
01:40
And so Peter Clement was charged with
driving that 12-hour-long rough road
driving that 12-hour-long rough road
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因此彼特•克萊蒙德卯足了勁
在顛簸的公路上開了12個小時
在顛簸的公路上開了12個小時
01:45
from Monrovia, the capital,
up to Lofa County,
up to Lofa County,
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從賴比瑞亞首都蒙羅維亞開到了洛法鎮
01:49
to try and help bring control
to the escalating epidemic there.
to the escalating epidemic there.
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去試著幫助控制正在逐漸蔓延的疫情
01:53
And what Peter found when he arrived was
the terror that I just mentioned to you.
the terror that I just mentioned to you.
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而彼特到達洛法鎮時，
發現了我之前提到的恐慌
發現了我之前提到的恐慌
01:59
So he sat down with the local chiefs,
and he listened.
and he listened.
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他和當地領袖們會面聆聽他們的看法
02:03
And what he heard was heartbreaking.
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他聽到的是令人心碎的消息
02:07
He heard about the devastation
and the desperation
and the desperation
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他聽到了那些患者的
悲痛和絕望
02:11
of people affected by this disease.
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02:14
He heard the heartbreaking stories
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他聽到了那些令人心碎的故事
02:16
about not just the damage
that Ebola did to people,
that Ebola did to people,
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不僅僅是關於伊波拉對人們
所造成的破壞
所造成的破壞
02:20
but what it did to families
and what it did to communities.
and what it did to communities.
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還有它對家庭、社區造成的影響
02:24
And he listened to the local chiefs there
and what they told him --
and what they told him --
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他聽著當地領袖們訴說的故事
02:29
They said, "When our children are sick,
when our children are dying,
when our children are dying,
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他們說：“當我們的孩子生病時
當我們的孩子瀕臨死亡邊緣
當我們的孩子瀕臨死亡邊緣
02:32
we can't hold them at a time when
we want to be closest to them.
we want to be closest to them.
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我們在最想靠近他們的時刻，卻不能抱住他們
02:36
When our relatives die, we can't take care
of them as our tradition demands.
of them as our tradition demands.
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當我們的親人死去，我們無法
依傳統習俗照料他們的遺體
依傳統習俗照料他們的遺體
02:41
We are not allowed to wash
the bodies to bury them
the bodies to bury them
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我們被禁止洗梳他們的遺體
為他們下葬
為他們下葬
02:43
the way our communities and
our rituals demand.
our rituals demand.
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正如我們的社區和習俗
所要求的那樣
所要求的那樣
02:47
And for this reason, they were
deeply disturbed, deeply alarmed
deeply disturbed, deeply alarmed
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正因如此，他們身心不寧，高度警惕
02:50
and the entire epidemic
was unraveling in front of them.
was unraveling in front of them.
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而整場瘟疫就在他們面前拉開帷幕
02:54
People were turning on the healthcare
workers who had come,
workers who had come,
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人們開始寄望那些來到鎮上的醫務人員
02:57
the heroes who had come to try
and help save the community,
and help save the community,
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那些來試著拯救這個社區的英雄
03:00
to help work with the community,
and they were unable to access them.
and they were unable to access them.
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來幫助這個社區的英雄
但他們無法接近這些英雄
但他們無法接近這些英雄
03:05
And what happened then was
Peter explained to the leaders.
Peter explained to the leaders.
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接下來，彼特為當地領袖們進行了解釋
03:10
The leaders listened.
They turned the tables.
They turned the tables.
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領袖們聆聽著，他們扭轉了局面
03:13
And Peter explained what Ebola was.
He explained what the disease was.
He explained what the disease was.
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彼特解釋了伊波拉病毒是什麼
他解釋了這種疾病是怎麼回事
他解釋了這種疾病是怎麼回事
03:16
He explained what it did
to their communities.
to their communities.
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他解釋了伊波拉對他們社區造成的影響
03:19
And he explained that Ebola threatened
everything that made us human.
everything that made us human.
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然後他還解釋了
伊波拉病毒威脅著我們的人性
伊波拉病毒威脅著我們的人性
03:24
Ebola means you can't hold your children
the way you would in this situation.
the way you would in this situation.
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伊波拉意味著你不能在孩子們
奄奄一息時抱住他們
奄奄一息時抱住他們
03:28
You can't bury your dead
the way that you would.
the way that you would.
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你無法按照傳統習俗安葬他們的遺體
03:31
You have to trust these people
in these space suits to do that for you.
in these space suits to do that for you.
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你必須相信那些身著“太空服”的人
相信他們會為你做這些事情
相信他們會為你做這些事情
03:35
And ladies and gentlemen, what
happened then was rather extraordinary:
happened then was rather extraordinary:
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女士們先生們，接下來發生的
相當非比尋常：
相當非比尋常：
03:39
The community and the health workers,
Peter, they sat down together
Peter, they sat down together
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整個社區和醫護人員，還有彼特
一起坐了下來
一起坐了下來
03:42
and they put together a new plan
for controlling Ebola in Lofa County.
for controlling Ebola in Lofa County.
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他們共同規劃了新方案
以在洛法鎮控制伊波拉病毒
以在洛法鎮控制伊波拉病毒
03:47
And the reason that this is such
an important story, ladies and gentlemen,
an important story, ladies and gentlemen,
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而這個故事重要的原因
女士們先生們
女士們先生們
03:51
is because today, this county, which is
right at the center of this epidemic
right at the center of this epidemic
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就在今天，這個位於疫情中心的鎮
03:56
you've been watching,
you've been seeing in the newspapers,
you've been seeing in the newspapers,
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你一直在關注的疫情
你一直在報紙上見到的疫情
你一直在報紙上見到的疫情
03:59
you've been seeing on
the television screens,
the television screens,
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你一直在電視螢幕上看到的疫情
04:03
today Lofa County is nearly eight weeks
without seeing a single case of Ebola.
without seeing a single case of Ebola.
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在今天的洛法鎮，已經有將近八週
沒有新病例產生了
沒有新病例產生了
04:09
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
04:16
Now, this doesn't mean that
the job is done, obviously.
the job is done, obviously.
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顯然，這並不意味著大功告成
04:20
There's still a huge risk
that there will be additional cases there.
that there will be additional cases there.
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那裡會產生更多病例的風險仍然很大
04:23
But what it does teach us
is that Ebola can be beaten.
is that Ebola can be beaten.
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但這個故事教給我們的是
伊波拉病毒是能夠被擊敗的。
伊波拉病毒是能夠被擊敗的。
04:26
That's the key thing.
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那才是關鍵
04:28
Even on this scale,
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甚至是在這麼大的規模下
04:29
even with the rapid kind of growth
that we saw in this environment here,
that we saw in this environment here,
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甚至是以我們在這個環境中
所看到的這般蔓延速度
所看到的這般蔓延速度
04:33
we now know Ebola can be beaten.
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如今我們知道伊波拉是能被擊敗的
04:36
When communities come together
with health care workers, work together,
with health care workers, work together,
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當社區聚到一起，再加上醫護人員
大家共同努力
大家共同努力
04:40
that's when this disease can be stopped.
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此時，這場疫情就能被終止
04:43
But how did Ebola end up
in Lofa County in the first place?
in Lofa County in the first place?
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但伊波拉在最初是如何
在洛法鎮出現的呢？
在洛法鎮出現的呢？
04:47
Well, for that, we have to go back
12 months, to the start of this epidemic.
12 months, to the start of this epidemic.
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要回答這個問題，我們必須回到
12個月前，回到這場疫情的開端
12個月前，回到這場疫情的開端
04:51
And as many of you know,
this virus went undetected,
this virus went undetected,
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你們當中許多人都知道
這種病毒當時沒有被檢測到
這種病毒當時沒有被檢測到
04:55
it evaded detection for three
or four months when it began.
or four months when it began.
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疫情爆發前，這個病毒
已經潛伏了三至四個月
已經潛伏了三至四個月
04:59
That's because this is not
a disease of West Africa,
a disease of West Africa,
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那是因為伊波拉並非西非的疾病
05:01
it's a disease of Central Africa,
half a continent away.
half a continent away.
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而是來自相距半塊大陸之遠的中非
05:04
People hadn't seen the disease before;
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人們之前從未見過這種病
05:06
health workers hadn't seen
the disease before.
the disease before.
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醫護人員之前也從未見過這種病
05:09
They didn't know what
they were dealing with,
they were dealing with,
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他們不知道自己面對的是什麼
05:11
and to make it
even more complicated,
even more complicated,
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而令事情更為複雜的是
05:13
the virus itself was causing a symptom,
a type of a presentation
a type of a presentation
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病毒本身引起了一種症狀
一種這種病非典型的表現
05:18
that wasn't classical of the disease.
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05:20
So people didn't even recognize
the disease, people who knew Ebola.
the disease, people who knew Ebola.
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所以知道伊波拉的人
也並未認出這種疾病
也並未認出這種疾病
05:24
For that reason it evaded detection
for some time,
for some time,
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由於這個原因，它潛伏了一段時間
05:28
But contrary to public belief
sometimes these days,
sometimes these days,
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但與如今公眾所相信的，恰恰相反的是
05:31
once the virus was detected,
there was a rapid surge in of support.
there was a rapid surge in of support.
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當病毒被檢測到時
有一大批支援湧入了疫情中心
有一大批支援湧入了疫情中心
05:37
MSF rapidly set up an Ebola treatment
center, as many of you know, in the area.
center, as many of you know, in the area.
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無國界醫生組織在這片地區
迅速設置起了伊波拉治療中心
迅速設置起了伊波拉治療中心
05:42
The World Health Organization
and the partners that it works with
and the partners that it works with
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世界衛生組織和其合作夥伴們
05:45
deployed eventually hundreds of people
over the next two months
over the next two months
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在接下來的兩個月內
逐步部署了幾百人
逐步部署了幾百人
05:49
to be able to help track the virus.
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以幫助追蹤病情的發展
05:51
The problem, ladies and gentlemen,
is by then, this virus,
is by then, this virus,
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問題是，女士們先生們
當時這個病毒
當時這個病毒
05:55
well known now as Ebola,
had spread too far.
had spread too far.
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這個如今以“伊波拉”之名
聞名於世的病毒，早已蔓延開來
聞名於世的病毒，早已蔓延開來
05:59
It had already outstripped what was
one of the largest responses
one of the largest responses
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它的規模早已超越了當時
為伊波拉爆發所做出的最大準備
06:02
that had been mounted so far
to an Ebola outbreak.
to an Ebola outbreak.
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年中時，不僅僅是幾內亞
06:06
By the middle of the year,
not just Guinea
not just Guinea
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06:08
but now Sierra Leone and Liberia
were also infected.
were also infected.
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還有獅子山國和賴比瑞亞也遭受感染
06:12
As the virus was spreading geographically,
the numbers were increasing
the numbers were increasing
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隨著病毒大面積擴散
受感染人數不斷增加
受感染人數不斷增加
06:17
and at this time, not only were
hundreds of people infected
hundreds of people infected
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此時，不僅有幾百人受到伊波拉感染
06:22
and dying of the disease,
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並死於此病
06:24
but as importantly,
the front line responders,
the front line responders,
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而且同樣重要的是
在前線抗爭的人們
在前線抗爭的人們
06:27
the people who had gone to try and help,
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那些來試著幫忙的人
06:29
the health care workers, the other
responders
responders
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醫護人員和其他人們
06:33
were also sick and dying by the dozens.
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也有數十人因此病倒
並死於伊波拉病毒
並死於伊波拉病毒
06:36
The presidents of these countries
recognized the emergencies.
recognized the emergencies.
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這些國家的總統意識到問題的急切性
06:39
They met right around that time,
they agreed on common action
they agreed on common action
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他們就在那時進行了會面
並一致同意共同採取行動
並一致同意共同採取行動
06:42
and they put together an emergency
joint operation center in Conakry
joint operation center in Conakry
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然後他們在柯那克里（幾內亞首都）
成立了一個應急聯合行動中心
成立了一個應急聯合行動中心
06:46
to try and work together to finish this
disease and get it stopped,
disease and get it stopped,
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來試著通過合作消滅這場疾病
阻止它的蔓延
阻止它的蔓延
06:51
to implement the strategies
we talked about.
we talked about.
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並執行我們探討過的戰略
06:54
But what happened then was something
we had never seen before with Ebola.
we had never seen before with Ebola.
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但當時我們所面臨的情況
是早前對抗伊波拉時從未遇見的
是早前對抗伊波拉時從未遇見的
06:58
What happened then was the virus,
or someone sick with the virus,
or someone sick with the virus,
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當時伊波拉病毒，
或者是攜帶著這病毒的人
或者是攜帶著這病毒的人
07:01
boarded an airplane,
flew to another country,
flew to another country,
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登上了飛機，到了另一個國家
07:05
and for the first time,
we saw in another distant country
we saw in another distant country
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而有史以來第一次
我們在另一個遙遠的國度看到
我們在另一個遙遠的國度看到
07:09
the virus pop up again.
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伊波拉病毒再度出現
07:12
This time it was in Nigeria,
in the teeming metropolis of Lagos,
in the teeming metropolis of Lagos,
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這一次，是在奈吉利亞
在熱鬧的大都市拉哥斯
在熱鬧的大都市拉哥斯
07:16
21 million people.
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有兩千一百萬人口
07:18
Now the virus was in that environment.
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病毒到了那樣的一個環境中
07:21
And as you can anticipate,
there was international alarm,
there was international alarm,
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正如你所預計的，國際警報就此拉響
07:24
international concern on a scale that
we hadn't seen in recent years
we hadn't seen in recent years
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引發了一場我們近年來都不曾見到的
大規模國際性關注
大規模國際性關注
07:28
caused by a disease like this.
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正是由這樣的一場疾病所導致的
07:31
The World Health Organization immediately
called together an expert panel,
called together an expert panel,
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世界衛生組織立即召集了一個專家小組
07:35
looked at the situation,
declared an international emergency.
declared an international emergency.
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研究了當下情況，
並宣佈這是一場國際性緊急狀況
並宣佈這是一場國際性緊急狀況
07:39
And in doing so, the expectation would be
that there would be a huge outpouring
that there would be a huge outpouring
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這樣做是期望之後會湧現一大批
07:44
of international assistance
to help these countries
to help these countries
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國際援助，來幫助這些國家
07:47
which were in so much trouble
and concern at that time.
and concern at that time.
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這些當時充滿難關和憂慮的國家
07:51
But what we saw was
something very different.
something very different.
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但我們所見到的卻截然不同
07:54
There was some great response.
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那時的反響十分強烈
07:58
A number of countries came to assist --
many, many NGOs and others, as you know,
many, many NGOs and others, as you know,
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許多國家前來支援 ﹣ 許多許多
非政府組織，正如你所了解的
非政府組織，正如你所了解的
08:02
but at the same time, the opposite
happened in many places.
happened in many places.
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但與此同時，恰恰相反的回應
在許多地區也在發生
在許多地區也在發生
08:06
Alarm escalated, and very soon
these countries found themselves
these countries found themselves
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警報逐步升級，
很快這些國家發現自己得不到所需的援助
很快這些國家發現自己得不到所需的援助
08:10
not receiving the support they needed,
but increasingly isolated.
but increasingly isolated.
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而且變得愈發孤立
08:14
What we saw was commercial airlines
started flying into these countries
started flying into these countries
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我們見到商業航線開始飛入這些國家
08:19
and people who hadn't even been
exposed to the virus
exposed to the virus
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而那些根本沒有接觸過伊波拉病毒的人們
08:22
were no longer allowed to travel.
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被禁止旅行
08:24
This cause not only problems, obviously,
for the countries themselves,
for the countries themselves,
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很顯然，這不單為
那些國家帶來了問題
那些國家帶來了問題
08:28
but also for the response.
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還對救援工作造成了麻煩
08:30
Those organizations that were
trying to bring people in,
trying to bring people in,
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那些正試著將人帶入這些國家的組織
08:33
to try and help them
respond to the outbreak,
respond to the outbreak,
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那些想要幫助他們對抗
伊波拉病毒爆發的組織
伊波拉病毒爆發的組織
08:35
they could not get
people on airplanes,
people on airplanes,
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他們無法將人送上飛機
08:37
they could not get them into the
countries to be able to respond.
countries to be able to respond.
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也無法把人帶到施以援助的國家
08:40
In that situation,
ladies and gentleman,
ladies and gentleman,
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在那樣的情況下，女士們先生們
08:42
a virus like Ebola takes advantage.
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像伊波拉這樣的病毒就會趁虛而入
08:45
And what we saw then was something
also we hadn't seen before.
also we hadn't seen before.
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我們所面臨的局面是前所未見的
08:50
Not only did this virus
continue in the places
continue in the places
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伊波拉病毒不單在這些已受感染的地方繼續傳播
08:53
where they'd already become infected,
but then it started to escalate
but then it started to escalate
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然後病毒甚至開始升級
08:57
and we saw the case numbers
that you see here,
that you see here,
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於是我們得到了你們眼前所見的病例數量
08:59
something we'd never seen before
on such a scale,
on such a scale,
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這種規模是前所未見的
09:02
an exponential increase of Ebola cases
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伊波拉病例以指數般增長
09:05
not just in these countries or the areas
already infected in these countries
already infected in these countries
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不單是在這些國家
或是這些國家中已受感染的地區
或是這些國家中已受感染的地區
09:10
but also spreading further and
deeper into these countries.
deeper into these countries.
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並且它在這些國家擴散得更廣更深
09:14
Ladies and gentleman,
this was one of the most concerning
this was one of the most concerning
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女士們先生們
這是我們所見過最令人擔憂的
國際性公共衛生緊急狀況之一
國際性公共衛生緊急狀況之一
09:17
international emergencies in public health
we've ever seen.
we've ever seen.
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09:22
And what happened in these countries then,
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而之後在這些國家發生的事情
09:24
many of you saw, again, on the television,
read about in the newspapers,
read about in the newspapers,
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正如你們許多人在電視上所看到的
或是在報紙上所讀到的
或是在報紙上所讀到的
09:28
we saw the health system start to collapse
under the weight of this epidemic.
under the weight of this epidemic.
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這些國家的健康體系開始在
這場伊波拉戰役的重壓下崩潰
這場伊波拉戰役的重壓下崩潰
09:34
We saw the schools begin to close,
markets no longer started,
markets no longer started,
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學校開始關閉，市場不再開門
09:38
no longer functioned the way
that they should in these countries.
that they should in these countries.
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也不再如往常般在這些國家運行
09:42
We saw that misinformation and
misperceptions started to spread
misperceptions started to spread
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誤報和誤解在這些社區
09:46
even faster through the communities,
which became even more alarmed
which became even more alarmed
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開始以更快的速度流傳
09:49
about the situation.
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令他們對局勢變得愈發緊張
09:51
They started to recoil from those people
that you saw in those space suits,
that you saw in those space suits,
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他們開始疏遠那些
被稱為“身著太空服的人”
被稱為“身著太空服的人”
09:55
as they call them,
who had come to help them.
who had come to help them.
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而那些人是來幫助當地社區的
09:57
And then the situation
deteriorated even further.
deteriorated even further.
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然後局勢進一步惡化
10:00
The countries had to declare
a state of emergency.
a state of emergency.
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這些國家不得不宣告本國處於緊急狀況
10:03
Large populations needed to be quarantined
in some areas, and then riots broke out.
in some areas, and then riots broke out.
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這些地區大量人口要被隔離
然後更爆發騷亂
然後更爆發騷亂
10:08
It was a very, very terrifying situation.
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此時的局勢非常非常的可怕
10:12
Around the world,
many people began to ask,
many people began to ask,
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在全球各地，許多人開始問
10:15
can we ever stop Ebola
when it starts to spread like this?
when it starts to spread like this?
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當伊波拉病毒開始如此瘋狂擴散時
我們還能阻止它嗎？
我們還能阻止它嗎？
10:19
And they started to ask, how well
do we really know this virus?
do we really know this virus?
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他們開始問
我們對這個病毒到底有多少了解？
我們對這個病毒到底有多少了解？
10:23
The reality is we don't know
Ebola extremely well.
Ebola extremely well.
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事實上，我們對伊波拉病毒了解的並不多
10:26
It's a relatively modern disease
in terms of what we know about it.
in terms of what we know about it.
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就我們所了解的而言，它是一種相對現代的疾病
10:30
We've known the disease only for 40 years,
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我們知道這種病僅僅 40 年
10:33
since it first popped up
in Central Africa in 1976.
in Central Africa in 1976.
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它第一次出現是在 1976 年的中非
10:36
But despite that, we do know many things:
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但除此之外，我們的確知道許多事情：
10:39
We know that this virus
probably survives in a type of a bat.
probably survives in a type of a bat.
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我們知道這種病毒很有可能
存活於一種蝙蝠體內
存活於一種蝙蝠體內
10:44
We know that it probably enters
a human population
a human population
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當我們接觸受伊波拉感染
10:47
when we come in contact with a wild animal
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或是已遭此病侵襲的野生動物時
10:49
that has been infected with the virus
and probably sickened by it.
and probably sickened by it.
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我們知道它很有可能會進入人類社會
10:53
Then we know that the virus
spreads from person to person
spreads from person to person
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我們還知道這種病毒
在人與人之間的擴散
在人與人之間的擴散
10:56
through contaminated body fluids.
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是通過體液感染
10:58
And as you've all seen,
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正如你們都見到的
11:00
we know the horrific disease
that it then causes in humans,
that it then causes in humans,
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3482
我們也知道這種病毒
在人體內所造成的可怕疾病
在人體內所造成的可怕疾病
11:03
where we see this disease cause
severe fevers, diarrhea, vomiting,
severe fevers, diarrhea, vomiting,
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這種疾病會導致發高燒、腹瀉、嘔吐
11:08
and then unfortunately, in 70 percent
of the cases or often more, death.
of the cases or often more, death.
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不幸的是，在超過70％的病例中，
患者會死亡
患者會死亡
11:14
This is a very dangerous,
debilitating, and deadly disease.
debilitating, and deadly disease.
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這是一種十分危險、令人逐步衰竭、
並且置人于死地的疾病
並且置人于死地的疾病
11:20
But despite the fact that we've not known
this disease for a particularly long time,
this disease for a particularly long time,
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然而，儘管我們了解
這種疾病的時間並不長
這種疾病的時間並不長
11:24
and we don't know everything about it,
we do know how to stop this disease.
we do know how to stop this disease.
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也並沒有了解它的一切
但我們的確知道如何阻止伊波拉
但我們的確知道如何阻止伊波拉
11:29
There are four things
that are critical to stopping Ebola.
that are critical to stopping Ebola.
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有四件十分關鍵的事可以阻止伊波拉
11:32
First and foremost, the communities
have got to understand this disease,
have got to understand this disease,
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首先，社區必須要去理解這種疾病
11:37
they've got to understand
how it spreads and how to stop it.
how it spreads and how to stop it.
188
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3521
他們必須要理解伊波拉
是如何擴散、如何阻止的
是如何擴散、如何阻止的
11:40
And then we've got to be able to have
systems that can find every single case,
systems that can find every single case,
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然後我們必須建立一個體系
能夠找到每一宗病例
能夠找到每一宗病例
11:44
every contact of those cases,
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2006
以及那些病例的所有聯繫人
11:46
and begin to track the transmission chains
so that you can stop transmission.
so that you can stop transmission.
191
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4157
並且開始追蹤傳播鏈
這樣才能阻止傳播
這樣才能阻止傳播
11:50
We have to have treatment centers,
specialized Ebola treatment centers,
specialized Ebola treatment centers,
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3622
我們必須要建立治療中心
專門研究伊波拉的治療中心
專門研究伊波拉的治療中心
11:54
where the workers can be protected
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2513
在那裡，醫療工作者們能得到保護
11:57
as they try to provide support
to the people who are infected,
to the people who are infected,
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4872
在他們努力為那些受感染的人提供幫助時
12:01
so that they might survive the disease.
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2445
這樣他們才能夠活下來
12:04
And then for those who do die,
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2200
而對於那些逝者
12:06
we have to ensure there is a safe, but at
the same time dignified, burial process,
the same time dignified, burial process,
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我們必須確保有一個安全
而又保有尊嚴的埋葬流程
而又保有尊嚴的埋葬流程
12:12
so that there is no spread
at that time as well.
at that time as well.
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以確保在此流程中不會造成病毒的擴散
12:16
So we do know how to stop Ebola, and these
strategies work, ladies and gentlemen.
strategies work, ladies and gentlemen.
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4501
女士們先生們，
我們真的知道如何有效的阻止伊波拉
我們真的知道如何有效的阻止伊波拉
12:21
The virus was stopped in Nigeria
by these four strategies
by these four strategies
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我們以這四個策略
成功在奈及利亞阻止了伊波拉病毒
成功在奈及利亞阻止了伊波拉病毒
12:25
and the people implementing
them, obviously.
them, obviously.
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當然的，也多虧了執行這四個策略的人
12:27
It was stopped in Senegal, where it had
spread, and also in the other countries
spread, and also in the other countries
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該病毒也在之前不斷擴散的塞內加爾被阻止
同時，這次疫情爆發中受感染的其他國家
也阻止了伊波拉
也阻止了伊波拉
12:31
that were affected by this virus,
in this outbreak.
in this outbreak.
203
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3593
12:35
So there's no question that
these strategies actually work.
these strategies actually work.
204
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3841
因此，毋庸置疑，這些策略的確奏效
12:39
The big question, ladies and gentlemen,
was whether these strategies could work
was whether these strategies could work
205
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5308
女士們先生們，而最大的問題在於
這些策略是否能在這樣的規模下
這樣的情況中奏效
這樣的情況中奏效
12:44
on this scale, in this situation,
with so many countries affected
with so many countries affected
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4274
已有這麼多國家受到感染
擴散的速度如你所見以指數增加
擴散的速度如你所見以指數增加
12:48
with the kind of exponential
growth that you saw.
growth that you saw.
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3606
那就是我們在兩到三個月前所面對的大問題
12:52
That was the big question that we were
facing just two or three months ago.
facing just two or three months ago.
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4551
12:56
Today we know the answer to that question.
209
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4044
今天，我們知道了解決這個問題的答案
13:01
And we know that answer
because of the extraordinary work
because of the extraordinary work
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2978
而我們之所以知道答案
就是因為一群人的傑出努力
就是因為一群人的傑出努力
13:03
of an incredible group of NGOs,
of governments, of local leaders,
of governments, of local leaders,
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包括一群了不起的非政府組織
一群政府，當地領袖
一群政府，當地領袖
13:08
of U.N. agencies and many humanitarian
and other organizations
and other organizations
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聯合國機構，以及，許多人道主義組織
13:13
that came and joined the fight
to try and stop Ebola in West Africa.
to try and stop Ebola in West Africa.
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3918
他們前來加入了阻止伊波拉在西非擴散的抗爭中
13:17
But what had to be done there
was slightly different.
was slightly different.
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3443
但在那裡要完成的有稍許不同
13:20
These countries took those strategies
I just showed you;
I just showed you;
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2925
這些國家採取了我剛剛展示的那些策略
13:23
the community engagement,
the case finding, contact tracing, etc.,
the case finding, contact tracing, etc.,
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社區聯合，尋找病例，追蹤聯繫人，等等
13:28
and they turned them on their head.
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然後他們改變了策略
13:30
There was so much disease,
they approached it differently.
they approached it differently.
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疾病已擴散得如此猖獗
他們要用不同的手法來解決
他們要用不同的手法來解決
13:33
What they decided to do was they would
first try and slow down this epidemic
first try and slow down this epidemic
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他們決定先試試延緩傳播速度
13:39
by rapidly building as many beds as
possible in specialized treatment centers
possible in specialized treatment centers
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通過在專治伊波拉的治療中心
快速搭建儘可能多的床位
快速搭建儘可能多的床位
13:44
so that they could prevent the disease
from spreading from those were infected.
from spreading from those were infected.
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這樣一來他們就能阻止疾病
從已感染的人身上擴散開來
從已感染的人身上擴散開來
13:49
They would rapidly build out
many, many burial teams
many, many burial teams
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他們會快速成立許多安葬隊伍
13:51
so that they could safely
deal with the dead,
deal with the dead,
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這樣一來他們就能安全地處理病人的屍體
13:54
and with that, they would try
and slow this outbreak
and slow this outbreak
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從而減緩這場傳染病的傳播速度
13:56
to see if it could actually then
be controlled using the classic approach
be controlled using the classic approach
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看看是否真的能夠控制伊波拉擴散
通過利用這種“尋找病例和追蹤聯繫人”的經典手法
14:00
of case finding and contact tracing.
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14:03
And when I went to West Africa
about three months ago,
about three months ago,
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當我三個月前去西非時
14:06
when I was there
what I saw was extraordinary.
what I saw was extraordinary.
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我在那兒看到了一副超凡景象
14:09
I saw presidents opening emergency
operation centers themselves against Ebola
operation centers themselves against Ebola
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我看到總統們親自打開
急診手術中心的大門以對抗伊波拉
急診手術中心的大門以對抗伊波拉
14:14
so that they could personally coordinate
and oversee and champion
and oversee and champion
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如此一來他們就能夠親自協調、監督、支持
14:18
this surge of international support
to try and stop this disease.
to try and stop this disease.
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大量湧入的國際支援，以對抗這場疾病的肆虐
14:22
We saw militaries from within
those countries and from far beyond
those countries and from far beyond
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我們看到來自那些國家，甚至其他國家的軍隊
14:26
coming in to help build
Ebola treatment centers
Ebola treatment centers
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來到這裡幫助搭建伊波拉治療中心
14:28
that could be used to isolate
those who were sick.
those who were sick.
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用以隔離那些病人
14:32
We saw the Red Cross movement working with
its partner agencies on the ground there
its partner agencies on the ground there
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我們看到紅十字會運動在那裡
與它的夥伴機構一起合作
與它的夥伴機構一起合作
14:36
to help train the communities so that
they could actually safely bury their dead
they could actually safely bury their dead
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來幫助訓練社區成員
使他們安全地安葬死去的親友
使他們安全地安葬死去的親友
14:41
in a dignified manner themselves.
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並以有尊嚴的方式，親自為死者下葬
14:44
And we saw the U.N. agencies,
the World Food Program,
the World Food Program,
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我們還看到聯合國機構和世界糧食計劃署
14:47
build a tremendous air bridge
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搭建了一架巨大的空運橋樑
14:49
that could get responders to every single
corner of these countries rapidly
corner of these countries rapidly
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將救援者快速送至這些國家的各個角落
14:52
to be able to implement the strategies
that we just talked about.
that we just talked about.
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以實施我們剛剛提到的策略
14:56
What we saw, ladies and gentlemen,
which was probably most impressive,
which was probably most impressive,
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女士們先生們，我們看到
或許最為令人影響深刻的
或許最為令人影響深刻的
14:59
was this incredible work
by the governments,
by the governments,
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是這些國家的政府和領導人
與社區一起做出的驚人努力
與社區一起做出的驚人努力
15:02
by the leaders in these countries,
with the communities,
with the communities,
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15:05
to try to ensure people
understood this disease,
understood this disease,
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來試圖確保人們理解這場疾病
15:08
understood the extraordinary things they
would have to do to try and stop Ebola.
would have to do to try and stop Ebola.
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理解為了阻止伊波拉的傳播
他們必須做出非凡的努力
結果，女士們先生們
15:14
And as a result, ladies and gentlemen,
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15:16
we saw something that we did not know
only two or three months earlier,
only two or three months earlier,
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我們就看到了在兩三個月前
我們甚至不知道是否可能的事情
15:21
whether or not it would be possible.
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我們看到的正是你現在在這張圖表上所見的
15:23
What we saw was
what you see now in this graph,
what you see now in this graph,
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15:26
when we took stock on December 1.
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我們在 12 月 1 日評估狀況時製作了這張表格
15:29
What we saw was we could
bend that curve, so to speak,
bend that curve, so to speak,
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打個比喻來說，我們看到的是
我們能夠壓制這條曲線
我們能夠壓制這條曲線
15:32
change this exponential growth,
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改變指數型增長模式
15:35
and bring some hope back
to the ability to control this outbreak.
to the ability to control this outbreak.
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並且對控制這場病毒爆發的能力
重新帶回希望
重新帶回希望
15:39
And for this reason, ladies and gentlemen,
there's absolutely no question now
there's absolutely no question now
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由於這個原因，女士們先生們，毋庸置疑，
我們能追上這場疾病在西非爆發的速度
並且擊敗伊波拉
並且擊敗伊波拉
15:43
that we can catch up with this outbreak
in West Africa and we can beat Ebola.
in West Africa and we can beat Ebola.
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然而最大的問題在於，許多人都在問
15:49
The big question, though,
that many people are asking,
that many people are asking,
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15:53
even when they saw this curve, they said,
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甚至當他們看到了這張曲線圖，他們還會說
15:55
"Well, hang on a minute --
that's great you can slow it down,
that's great you can slow it down,
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「嘿，等會兒 ﹣ 你能把傳播速度減慢，這很贊
15:58
but can you actually
drive it down to zero?"
drive it down to zero?"
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可是你真的能夠把病例數下降為零嗎？」
16:00
We already answered that question
back at the beginning of this talk,
back at the beginning of this talk,
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我們已在這演講開頭回答過這問題
16:03
when I spoke about Lofa County in Liberia.
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當我談到賴比瑞亞的洛法鎮時
16:07
We told you the story
how Lofa County got to a situation
how Lofa County got to a situation
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我們告訴你洛法鎮，如何到達他們如今的局面
16:11
where they have not seen
Ebola for eight weeks.
Ebola for eight weeks.
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他們已經八週沒有出現新病例了
16:14
But there are similar stories from
the other countries as well.
the other countries as well.
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但其他國家也有類似的故事
16:17
From Gueckedou in Guinea,
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從幾內亞的蓋凱杜
16:19
the first area where the first case was
actually diagnosed.
actually diagnosed.
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也就是第一個伊波拉病例
真正得到確診的地方
真正得到確診的地方
16:24
We've seen very, very few cases
in the last couple of months,
in the last couple of months,
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我們在過去的幾個月內
見到非常非常少量的新病例
見到非常非常少量的新病例
16:27
and here in Kenema, in Sierra Leone,
another area in the epicenter,
another area in the epicenter,
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而在獅子山國的凱內馬
也就是另一個疫情中心
也就是另一個疫情中心
16:32
we have not seen the virus
for more than a couple of weeks --
for more than a couple of weeks --
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我們已經好幾周都沒有看到
伊波拉病毒出現了
伊波拉病毒出現了
16:35
way too early to declare
victory, obviously,
victory, obviously,
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當然啦，要宣告勝利還為時過早
16:38
but evidence, ladies and gentlemen,
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但證據表明，女士們先生們
16:40
not only can the response
catch up to the disease,
catch up to the disease,
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我們的救援不僅能夠趕上疾病肆虐的步伐
16:43
but this disease can be driven to zero.
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還能將這場疾病徹底消滅
16:46
The challenge now, of course,
is doing this on the scale needed
is doing this on the scale needed
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當然啦，目前的挑戰在於
在這三個國家所需的規模上實施這些策略
這真是個巨大的挑戰
這真是個巨大的挑戰
16:51
right across these three countries,
and that is a huge challenge.
and that is a huge challenge.
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16:56
Because when you've been at something
for this long, on this scale,
for this long, on this scale,
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因為當你對抗大規模的事物如此之久時
17:01
two other big threats
come in to join the virus.
come in to join the virus.
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另外兩個巨大的威脅
會令這場病毒災難雪上加霜
會令這場病毒災難雪上加霜
17:05
The first of those is complacency,
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首先是自鳴得意
17:08
the risk that as this
disease curve starts to bend,
disease curve starts to bend,
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風險在於
隨著疾病曲線圖開始彎曲
隨著疾病曲線圖開始彎曲
17:11
the media look elsewhere,
the world looks elsewhere.
the world looks elsewhere.
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媒體開始關注其他事情
全世界開始關注其他事情
全世界開始關注其他事情
17:14
Complacency always a risk.
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自鳴得意永遠都是一個風險
17:16
And the other risk, of course, is when
you've been working so hard for so long,
you've been working so hard for so long,
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當然，另一個風險則是
當你這麼努力了這麼久
當你這麼努力了這麼久
17:20
and slept so few hours
over the past months,
over the past months,
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過去幾個月睡眠時間這麼少時
17:24
people are tired, people become fatigued,
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大家都會很疲憊，變得全身乏力
17:26
and these new risks
start to creep into the response.
start to creep into the response.
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而這些新風險開始偷偷
進入對伊波拉的響應中
進入對伊波拉的響應中
17:30
Ladies and gentlemen, I can tell you today
I've just come back from West Africa.
I've just come back from West Africa.
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女士們先生們，我今天能告訴大家
我剛剛從西非回來
我剛剛從西非回來
17:35
The people of these countries,
the leaders of these countries,
the leaders of these countries,
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這些國家的人民和領導者們
17:38
they are not complacent.
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他們並沒有自鳴得意
17:40
They want to drive Ebola to zero
in their countries.
in their countries.
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他們想要將伊波拉在自己的國家徹底消滅
17:44
And these people, yes, they're tired,
but they are not fatigued.
but they are not fatigued.
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而這些人們，他們的確很疲憊
但並沒有感到乏力
但並沒有感到乏力
17:47
They have an energy, they have a courage,
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他們充滿精力與勇氣
17:50
they have the strength
to get this finished.
to get this finished.
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他們有力量完成這個使命
17:52
What they need, ladies
and gentlemen, at this point,
and gentlemen, at this point,
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女士們先生們，他們在此刻需要的
17:55
is the unwavering support of the
international community,
international community,
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是來自國際社區堅定不移的支持
17:58
to stand with them,
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堅定地與他們同在
18:00
to bolster and bring even more support
at this time, to get the job finished.
at this time, to get the job finished.
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在此時此刻支持甚至是帶來更多支持
以完成這項使命
以完成這項使命
18:05
Because finishing Ebola right now
means turning the tables on this virus,
means turning the tables on this virus,
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因為戰勝伊波拉在此刻意味著
人類對伊波拉從劣勢扭轉為優勢
並且開始進行反擊
並且開始進行反擊
18:10
and beginning to hunt it.
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18:12
Remember, this virus, this whole crisis,
rather, started with one case,
rather, started with one case,
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記住，這個病毒
這整場開始於一個病例的災難
這整場開始於一個病例的災難
18:17
and is going to finish with one case.
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也將以一個病例結束
18:19
But it will only finish if those countries
have got enough epidemiologists,
have got enough epidemiologists,
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但它的結束只有靠著那些國家
擁有足夠多的流行病學家
擁有足夠多的流行病學家
18:24
enough health workers, enough logisticians
and enough other people working with them
and enough other people working with them
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足夠多的醫護人員，足夠多的物流人員
以及足夠多的其他人來一起合作
以及足夠多的其他人來一起合作
18:28
to be able to find every one
of those cases, track their contacts
of those cases, track their contacts
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才能找到那些病例所有的相關人
并追蹤他們的聯繫人
并追蹤他們的聯繫人
18:32
and make sure that this disease
stops once and for all.
stops once and for all.
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確保這場疾病永遠消失
18:36
Ladies and gentleman, Ebola can be beaten.
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女士們先生們，伊波拉是能夠被擊敗的
18:39
Now we need you to take this story out
to tell it to the people who will listen
to tell it to the people who will listen
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我們需要你們把這個故事講給那些願意聽的人
18:44
and educate them
on what it means to beat Ebola,
on what it means to beat Ebola,
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並教育他們，擊敗伊波拉意味著什麼
18:47
and more importantly,
we need you to advocate with the people
we need you to advocate with the people
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更重要的是，我們需要你們
鼓動那些能夠幫助我們
把資源送到這些國家的人們
把資源送到這些國家的人們
18:51
who can help us bring the resources we
need to these countries,
need to these countries,
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18:54
to beat this disease.
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以擊敗這場疾病
18:56
There are a lot of people out there
who will survive and will thrive,
who will survive and will thrive,
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有許多人能夠從這場疾病中活下來
並且從此茁壯成長
並且從此茁壯成長
19:00
in part because of what you do
to help us beat Ebola.
to help us beat Ebola.
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其中一部份原因就是因為
你能夠為擊敗伊波拉所做的
你能夠為擊敗伊波拉所做的
19:04
Thank you.
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謝謝大家
19:05
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Bruce Aylward - EpidemiologistAs the Assistant Director-General of the World Health Organization’s Polio and Emergencies Cluster, Bruce Aylward works to ensure that polio stays under control and that the world is prepared to respond to health crises.
Why you should listen
A Canadian physician and epidemiologist who has authored some 100 peer-reviewed articles and chapters, Bruce Aylward is an expert on infectious diseases. He joined the World Health Organization in 1992 and worked in the field for seven years on national immunization programs for measles, tetanus and hepatitis in the Middle East, Africa and Asia.
Aylward has overseen and managed the scale-up of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative since 1998, during which time the program expanded to operate in every country of the world, the annual global budget increased to $700 million a year, polio-funded staff deployed by WHO grew to over 3,500 people worldwide, and new monovalent oral poliovirus vaccines were developed for the programme. In 2014, only three countries remained polio-endemic.
He says: "It's been estimated that our investment in smallpox eradication pays off every 26 days."
Since 2011, Aylward has also led WHO’s work in preparedness, readiness and response to health emergencies. By developing global strategies, analyzing health trends and advising on policies and country collaboration, the WHO helps make sure that outbreaks — like the 2014 ebola epidemic — stay under control.
Bruce Aylward | Speaker | TED.com