TED2016
Al Gore: The case for optimism on climate change
艾爾‧高爾: 關於氣候變遷的樂觀事實
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艾爾‧高爾對氣候變遷以及我們的未來提出了三個問題。第一：我們必須改變嗎？每天，全球暖化汙染物困住了 40 萬顆廣島炸彈等級的熱能量。這些受困熱能導致更強烈的暴風與極端的水災，他說:「每晚的電視新聞就像是一場在《啟示錄》裡的健行。」第二個問題：我們能改變嗎？我們早已經開始改變了。所以，更重要的問題是：我們會改變嗎？在這場鼓舞、啟發人心的演講中，艾爾‧高爾說:「會的。當任何一個重要的道德挑戰，最終成為一個二元、在對與錯之間的選擇時，結果總是注定的，因為我們是人類，我們會做對的事。」他說：「這也是為什麼我們會戰勝這個挑戰。」
Al Gore - Climate advocate
Nobel Laureate Al Gore focused the world’s attention on the global climate crisis. Now he’s showing us how we’re moving towards real solutions. Full bio
Nobel Laureate Al Gore focused the world’s attention on the global climate crisis. Now he’s showing us how we’re moving towards real solutions. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
I was excited to be a part
of the "Dream" theme,
of the "Dream" theme,
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我很興奮能參與這次的
主題「夢想」，
主題「夢想」，
00:17
and then I found out I'm leading off
the "Nightmare?" section of it.
the "Nightmare?" section of it.
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沒想到我卻在「惡夢」
這部分做開場。
這部分做開場。
00:20
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
00:23
And certainly there are things
about the climate crisis that qualify.
about the climate crisis that qualify.
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氣候危機在某些方面
確實是場惡夢，
確實是場惡夢，
00:28
And I have some bad news,
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我有一些壞消息，
00:30
but I have a lot more good news.
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但我有更多的好消息。
00:32
I'm going to propose three questions
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我將會提出三個問題，
00:36
and the answer to the first one
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而第一個問題的答案
00:39
necessarily involves a little bad news.
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無可避免的帶有一些壞消息。
00:41
But -- hang on, because the answers
to the second and third questions
to the second and third questions
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但是別喪氣，
因為第二和第三個問題的答案
因為第二和第三個問題的答案
00:46
really are very positive.
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都是非常正向的。
00:49
So the first question is,
"Do we really have to change?"
"Do we really have to change?"
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那麼，第一個問題是
「我們真的需要改變嗎？」
「我們真的需要改變嗎？」
00:54
And of course, the Apollo Mission,
among other things
among other things
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當然，阿波羅計畫以及其他事物
00:59
changed the environmental movement,
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改變了環境運動，
01:01
really launched the modern
environmental movement
environmental movement
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真正發起了現代環境運動。
01:04
18 months after this Earthrise picture
was first seen on earth,
was first seen on earth,
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在這張地球升起的照片
首次出現在地球上的 18 個月後，
首次出現在地球上的 18 個月後，
01:08
the first Earth Day was organized.
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第一次世界地球日（活動）
組織成立了。
組織成立了。
01:11
And we learned a lot about ourselves
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藉由從宇宙回顧我們的星球，
01:14
looking back at our planet from space.
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我們也更加認識了自己。
01:17
And one of the things that we learned
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而我們所發現的其中一件事，
01:19
confirmed what the scientists
have long told us.
have long told us.
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證實了長久以來科學家告訴我們的。
01:21
One of the most essential facts
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其中一項最重要的事實，
01:23
about the climate crisis
has to do with the sky.
has to do with the sky.
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就是氣候危機和天空息息相關。
01:26
As this picture illustrates,
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如照片所示，
01:28
the sky is not the vast
and limitless expanse
and limitless expanse
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天空並非像我們
從地上仰望所看到的
從地上仰望所看到的
01:31
that appears when we look up
from the ground.
from the ground.
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那樣廣大且遼闊無邊。
01:34
It is a very thin shell of atmosphere
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天空是一層非常薄的大氣層
01:38
surrounding the planet.
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環繞著地球。
01:40
That right now is the open sewer
for our industrial civilization
for our industrial civilization
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現在它就像是一條
飽受汙染的無蓋下水道，
飽受汙染的無蓋下水道，
由目前的工業文明架構所導致。
01:45
as it's currently organized.
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01:47
We are spewing 110 million tons
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我們每 24 小時便排放出
１億１千萬噸
１億１千萬噸
01:51
of heat-trapping global warming pollution
into it every 24 hours,
into it every 24 hours,
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會暖化地球的汙染物
進入大氣層，
進入大氣層，
01:56
free of charge, go ahead.
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免費無負擔，儘管做吧。
01:58
And there are many sources
of the greenhouse gases,
of the greenhouse gases,
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而溫室氣體的來源有很多，
02:01
I'm certainly not going
to go through them all.
to go through them all.
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我當然無法一一敘明。
02:03
I'm going to focus on the main one,
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我會專注在主要的來源上，
02:05
but agriculture is involved,
diet is involved, population is involved.
diet is involved, population is involved.
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但，農業是其中之一，
飲食也是、人口也是。
飲食也是、人口也是。
02:09
Management of forests, transportation,
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林業、運輸、
02:11
the oceans, the melting of the permafrost.
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海洋、永凍土融化統統都是。
不過我會聚焦在問題的核心，
02:14
But I'm going to focus
on the heart of the problem,
on the heart of the problem,
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也就是事實上
全世界每年有 85% 的能源
全世界每年有 85% 的能源
02:16
which is the fact that we still rely
on dirty, carbon-based fuels
on dirty, carbon-based fuels
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02:21
for 85 percent of all the energy
that our world burns every year.
that our world burns every year.
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依然是靠燃燒骯髒的
碳基燃料所產生。
碳基燃料所產生。
02:27
And you can see from this image
that after World War II,
that after World War II,
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從圖上你們可以看到在二戰後，
碳排放率開始急遽竄升。
02:31
the emission rates
started really accelerating.
started really accelerating.
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而大量累積的
人為地球暖化物染物
人為地球暖化物染物
02:34
And the accumulated amount
of man-made, global warming pollution
of man-made, global warming pollution
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現在上升到大氣層中，
02:37
that is up in the atmosphere now
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困住的多餘熱能，相當於每 24 小時
便引爆 40 萬顆廣島原子彈，
便引爆 40 萬顆廣島原子彈，
02:39
traps as much extra heat energy
as would be released
as would be released
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02:43
by 400,000 Hiroshima-class
atomic bombs exploding
atomic bombs exploding
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而且持續連爆一年 365 天。
02:48
every 24 hours, 365 days a year.
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事實查證了一遍又一遍，
02:52
Fact-checked over and over again,
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保守而言，這是事實。
02:54
conservative, it's the truth.
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這是一個巨大的星球，但是……
02:56
Now it's a big planet, but --
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（爆炸聲）
02:59
(Explosion sound)
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那可是很多的能量。
03:01
that is a lot of energy,
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特別是當你把它乘上
每天 40 萬倍。
每天 40 萬倍。
03:02
particularly when you multiply it
400,000 times per day.
400,000 times per day.
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並且，所有那些多餘的熱能
03:08
And all that extra heat energy
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03:10
is heating up the atmosphere,
the whole earth system.
the whole earth system.
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正在把大氣層、
整個地球系統加溫。
整個地球系統加溫。
我們來看一下大氣層。
03:13
Let's look at the atmosphere.
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這是我們過去
認為正常的溫度分布圖。
認為正常的溫度分布圖。
03:15
This is a depiction
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03:16
of what we used to think of as
the normal distribution of temperatures.
the normal distribution of temperatures.
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白色代表正常溫度的日子；
03:22
The white represents
normal temperature days;
normal temperature days;
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1951-1980 年是隨機選擇的年份。
03:25
1951-1980 are arbitrarily chosen.
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藍色是比平均冷的日子，
03:28
The blue are cooler than average days,
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紅色是比平均熱的日子。
03:30
the red are warmer than average days.
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但是在 1980 年代
整個曲線移動到了右方。
整個曲線移動到了右方。
03:32
But the entire curve has moved
to the right in the 1980s.
to the right in the 1980s.
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你們會看到在右下角，
03:36
And you'll see
in the lower right-hand corner
in the lower right-hand corner
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在統計上極度炎熱的日子
出現了相當顯著的數字。
出現了相當顯著的數字。
03:38
the appearance of statistically
significant numbers
significant numbers
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03:41
of extremely hot days.
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在 90 年代
曲線又更進一步往右移。
曲線又更進一步往右移。
03:42
In the 90s, the curve shifted further.
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03:44
And in the last 10 years,
you see the extremely hot days
you see the extremely hot days
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在最近的 10 年，
你們看到極度炎熱的日子
你們看到極度炎熱的日子
現在比起相對冷的日子
多出了很多天。
多出了很多天。
03:48
are now more numerous
than the cooler than average days.
than the cooler than average days.
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事實上，炎熱的天數
在地球表面整整多出了 150 倍，
在地球表面整整多出了 150 倍，
03:52
In fact, they are 150 times more common
on the surface of the earth
on the surface of the earth
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03:57
than they were just 30 years ago.
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跟短短 30 年前相比。
所以我們正擁有著破紀錄的溫度，
04:01
So we're having
record-breaking temperatures.
record-breaking temperatures.
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04:04
Fourteen of the 15 of the hottest years
ever measured with instruments
ever measured with instruments
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在 15 個有使用儀器測量
最熱的年份中，
最熱的年份中，
有 14 個是在這個年輕的世紀。
04:08
have been in this young century.
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04:09
The hottest of all was last year.
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其中最熱的一年是去年，
04:12
Last month was the 371st month in a row
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上個月則是
第 371 個連續的月份，
第 371 個連續的月份，
04:15
warmer than the 20th-century average.
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比 20 世紀的平均溫度還要熱。
04:17
And for the first time,
not only the warmest January,
not only the warmest January,
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並且，上個月不僅是
有始以來最熱的一月，
有始以來最熱的一月，
04:21
but for the first time, it was more
than two degrees Fahrenheit warmer
than two degrees Fahrenheit warmer
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還是第一次
比平均高了華氏 2 度。
比平均高了華氏 2 度。
04:26
than the average.
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04:28
These higher temperatures
are having an effect on animals,
are having an effect on animals,
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較高的溫度對動物、
04:32
plants, people, ecosystems.
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植物、人類及生態系統都有影響。
04:35
But on a global basis, 93 percent
of all the extra heat energy
of all the extra heat energy
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在以全球為基準的情況下，
93% 的多餘熱能
93% 的多餘熱能
04:40
is trapped in the oceans.
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是被困在海洋中。
04:42
And the scientists can measure
the heat buildup
the heat buildup
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而科學家對於溫度的攀升
04:44
much more precisely now
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現在有更精準的測量，
04:45
at all depths: deep, mid-ocean,
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在各種深度：深、中層海洋
04:47
the first few hundred meters.
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以及僅數百公尺淺層海洋，
04:49
And this, too, is accelerating.
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溫度都正在加升。
04:52
It goes back more than a century.
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這可以回溯到一個多世紀以前。
04:54
And more than half of the increase
has been in the last 19 years.
has been in the last 19 years.
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並且有超過一半的升溫
是發生在過去 19 年。
是發生在過去 19 年。
04:58
This has consequences.
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這些是有後果的。
04:59
The first order of consequence:
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第一個後果便是
05:01
the ocean-based storms get stronger.
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發源於海洋的風暴變得更強烈。
05:03
Super Typhoon Haiyan
went over areas of the Pacific
went over areas of the Pacific
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超級颱風海燕
在侵襲獨魯萬市之前，
在侵襲獨魯萬市之前，
05:06
five and a half degrees Fahrenheit
warmer than normal
warmer than normal
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經過的太平洋地區
比平常的溫度高了華氏 5.5 度，
比平常的溫度高了華氏 5.5 度，
05:09
before it slammed into Tacloban,
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而以有始以來
最具破壞性的颱風姿態登陸。
最具破壞性的颱風姿態登陸。
05:11
as the most destructive storm
ever to make landfall.
ever to make landfall.
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05:15
Pope Francis, who has made
such a difference to this whole issue,
such a difference to this whole issue,
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教宗方濟各
在這整個議題上作了許多努力，
在這整個議題上作了許多努力，
05:20
visited Tacloban right after that.
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在那之後立刻拜訪了獨魯萬市。
05:22
Superstorm Sandy went over
areas of the Atlantic
areas of the Atlantic
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颶風桑迪在侵襲
紐約與紐澤西之前，
紐約與紐澤西之前，
05:25
nine degrees warmer than normal
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行經的大西洋區
比平常溫度高了華氏 9 度。
比平常溫度高了華氏 9 度。
05:27
before slamming into
New York and New Jersey.
New York and New Jersey.
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05:31
The second order of consequences
are affecting all of us right now.
are affecting all of us right now.
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而第二個後果
現在正影響著我們所有人。
現在正影響著我們所有人。
05:35
The warmer oceans are evaporating
much more water vapor into the skies.
much more water vapor into the skies.
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升溫後的海洋
蒸發更多的水蒸氣進入天空。
蒸發更多的水蒸氣進入天空。
05:40
Average humidity worldwide
has gone up four percent.
has gone up four percent.
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世界各地的平均濕度
已增加了 4%，
已增加了 4%，
05:44
And it creates these atmospheric rivers.
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並製造出這些大氣長河。
05:47
The Brazilian scientists
call them "flying rivers."
call them "flying rivers."
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巴西的科學家稱它們為
「飛行的河流」。
「飛行的河流」。
05:50
And they funnel all of that
extra water vapor over the land
extra water vapor over the land
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它們把那些額外的水蒸氣
注入到大地之上，
注入到大地之上，
05:55
where storm conditions trigger
these massive record-breaking downpours.
these massive record-breaking downpours.
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觸發暴雨條件造成
這些破紀錄的傾盆大雨。
這些破紀錄的傾盆大雨。
06:00
This is from Montana.
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這是來自蒙大那州的照片。
06:03
Take a look at this storm last August.
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看一下這個去年八月的暴風雨。
06:05
As it moves over Tucson, Arizona.
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隨著它行經亞利桑那州土桑市，
06:08
It literally splashes off the city.
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它就如字面上的意思
「倒濕」了整個城市。
「倒濕」了整個城市。
06:11
These downpours are really unusual.
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這些傾盆大雨非常的不尋常。
06:15
Last July in Houston, Texas,
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去年七月在德州休士頓
06:18
it rained for two days,
162 billion gallons.
162 billion gallons.
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下了兩天的雨，
雨量高達一千六百二十億加侖。
雨量高達一千六百二十億加侖。
06:21
That represents more than two days
of the full flow of Niagara Falls
of the full flow of Niagara Falls
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這比尼加拉瓜瀑布
在此城市之中
在此城市之中
以全流量流出兩天的水量還多，
06:25
in the middle of the city,
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06:26
which was, of course, paralyzed.
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理所當然地，使之癱瘓。
06:28
These record downpours are creating
historic floods and mudslides.
historic floods and mudslides.
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這些空前的大雨造成了
歷史性的洪水與土石流。
歷史性的洪水與土石流。
06:32
This one is from Chile last year.
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這是去年的智利。
06:37
And you'll see that warehouse going by.
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你會看到那個倉庫被沖走。
06:40
There are oil tankers cars going by.
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那邊是油罐車漂過。
06:42
This is from Spain last September,
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這是來自去年九月的西班牙，
06:44
you could call this the running
of the cars and trucks, I guess.
of the cars and trucks, I guess.
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我猜你們可以稱這個作
川流不息的汽車與卡車。
川流不息的汽車與卡車。
06:49
Every night on the TV news now
is like a nature hike
is like a nature hike
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現在每一晚的電視新聞都像
在聖經《啟示錄》裡健行一樣。
（注：世界末日災難不斷）
（注：世界末日災難不斷）
06:52
through the Book of Revelation.
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06:54
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
06:56
I mean, really.
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我是說真的。
06:59
The insurance industry
has certainly noticed,
has certainly noticed,
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保險產業必然已經注意到
07:01
the losses have been mounting up.
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虧損正在增長。
07:03
They're not under any illusions
about what's happening.
about what's happening.
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他們對於正在發生的事
沒有任何的錯覺。
沒有任何的錯覺。
07:07
And the causality requires
a moment of discussion.
a moment of discussion.
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而因果關係需要花一段時間討論。
07:13
We're used to thinking of linear cause
and linear effect --
and linear effect --
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我們習慣於
線性因果關係的思考──
線性因果關係的思考──
07:16
one cause, one effect.
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一個原因，一個後果。
07:17
This is systemic causation.
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然而這是一個系統的因果關係。
07:21
As the great Kevin Trenberth says,
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如同偉大的氣象學家
凱文‧崔伯斯所說：
凱文‧崔伯斯所說：
07:23
"All storms are different now.
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「現在所有的暴風雨都是不同的，
07:24
There's so much extra energy
in the atmosphere,
in the atmosphere,
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大氣層中有太多多餘的能量，
07:27
there's so much extra water vapor.
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有太多額外的水蒸氣，
07:28
Every storm is different now."
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每個暴風雨現在都是不一樣的。」
07:31
So, the same extra heat pulls
the soil moisture out of the ground
the soil moisture out of the ground
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而，同樣的多餘熱能
把土壤中的水分帶離土地，
把土壤中的水分帶離土地，
07:36
and causes these deeper, longer,
more pervasive droughts
more pervasive droughts
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造成這些更深、更久
更常見的乾旱，
更常見的乾旱，
07:40
and many of them are underway right now.
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現在還有很多也依然在持續。
07:42
It dries out the vegetation
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乾旱使草木枯萎，
07:44
and causes more fires
in the western part of North America.
in the western part of North America.
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並在北美洲西部造成更多火災。
07:47
There's certainly been evidence
of that, a lot of them.
of that, a lot of them.
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很顯然還有其它跡象，
很多的跡象。
很多的跡象。
07:51
More lightning,
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更多的閃電，
07:52
as the heat energy builds up,
a considerable amount
a considerable amount
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隨著熱能的增加，
有相當程度的額外閃電也增加了。
07:55
of additional lightning also.
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07:58
These climate-related disasters also have
geopolitical consequences
geopolitical consequences
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這些與氣候相關的災難
同時也帶來地緣政治的後果，
同時也帶來地緣政治的後果，
08:05
and create instability.
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並造成動盪。
08:07
The climate-related historic drought
that started in Syria in 2006
that started in Syria in 2006
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敘利亞自 2006 年開始，
因氣候導致的歷史性乾旱
因氣候導致的歷史性乾旱
08:12
destroyed 60 percent
of the farms in Syria,
of the farms in Syria,
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摧毀了敘利亞 60% 的農田，
08:15
killed 80 percent of the livestock,
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導致 80% 的牲畜死亡，
08:18
and drove 1.5 million climate refugees
into the cities of Syria,
into the cities of Syria,
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並驅使 150 萬名氣候難民
進入敘利亞的城市，
進入敘利亞的城市，
08:22
where they collided with another
1.5 million refugees
1.5 million refugees
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在那裡他們還會碰上
另外 150 萬
另外 150 萬
08:25
from the Iraq War.
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源自於伊拉克戰爭的難民。
08:27
And along with other factors,
that opened the gates of Hell
that opened the gates of Hell
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再綜合其他因素，
地獄之門便被開啟了，
地獄之門便被開啟了，
08:32
that people are trying to close now.
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人們現在在試圖關上它。
08:35
The US Defense Department has long warned
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美國國防部早已警告
08:37
of consequences from the climate crisis,
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氣候危機會造成的後果，
08:40
including refugees,
food and water shortages
food and water shortages
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包括難民、食物以及水源短缺，
08:44
and pandemic disease.
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還有流行性疾病。
08:46
Right now we're seeing microbial diseases
from the tropics spread
from the tropics spread
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現在我們看到來自熱帶地區的
微生物傳染疾病
微生物傳染疾病
08:51
to the higher latitudes;
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散播到較高緯度的地區；
08:52
the transportation revolution has had
a lot to do with this.
a lot to do with this.
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交通運輸革新對此有很大的影響。
08:56
But the changing conditions
change the latitudes in the areas
change the latitudes in the areas
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但改變中的自然條件，
也改變了這些微生物疾病
也改變了這些微生物疾病
09:00
where these microbial diseases
can become endemic
can become endemic
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可以傳播的緯度和區域，
09:03
and change the range of the vectors,
like mosquitoes and ticks that carry them.
like mosquitoes and ticks that carry them.
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並改變了傳染媒介的範圍，
像是蚊子與壁蝨等帶原者。
像是蚊子與壁蝨等帶原者。
09:08
The Zika epidemic now --
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現在的茲卡病毒感染症──
09:12
we're better positioned in North America
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我們很幸運位在北美洲，
09:14
because it's still a little too cool
and we have a better public health system.
and we have a better public health system.
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因為這裡還是有點太冷，
而且我們有較佳的公共衛生制度。
而且我們有較佳的公共衛生制度。
09:18
But when women in some regions
of South and Central America
of South and Central America
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然而在南美洲和中美洲
某些地區的婦女們，
某些地區的婦女們，
09:23
are advised not to get pregnant
for two years --
for two years --
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被建議至少兩年不要懷孕──
09:25
that's something new,
that ought to get our attention.
that ought to get our attention.
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這是值得我們關注的新議題。
09:29
The Lancet, one of the two greatest
medical journals in the world,
medical journals in the world,
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《刺絡針》為世界上
最棒的二本醫學期刊之一，
最棒的二本醫學期刊之一，
09:33
last summer labeled this
a medical emergency now.
a medical emergency now.
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去年夏天把個議題標記為
一項緊急醫療事件。
一項緊急醫療事件。
09:37
And there are many factors because of it.
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這個問題還造成了其他許多現象。
09:40
This is also connected
to the extinction crisis.
to the extinction crisis.
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這同時也牽涉到滅絕危機。
09:42
We're in danger of losing 50 percent
of all the living species on earth
of all the living species on earth
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我們正處於
地球上 50% 的生物
地球上 50% 的生物
會在這個世紀末消失的危險之中。
09:46
by the end of this century.
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09:47
And already, land-based plants and animals
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並且陸上的植物與動物
09:50
are now moving towards the poles
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早已開始往極地遷徙，
09:52
at an average rate of 15 feet per day.
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以平均每天 15 英呎的速度移動。
09:56
Speaking of the North Pole,
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說到北極，
09:57
last December 29, the same storm
that caused historic flooding
that caused historic flooding
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去年 12 月 29 日，在美國中西部
造成嚴重水災的同一場暴風雨，
造成嚴重水災的同一場暴風雨，
10:03
in the American Midwest,
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10:04
raised temperatures at the North Pole
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還提高了北極的溫度，
10:07
50 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal,
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比平常溫度上升了華氏 50 度，
10:09
causing the thawing of the North Pole
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造成北極在正值漫長、
10:12
in the middle of the long,
dark, winter, polar night.
dark, winter, polar night.
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黑暗和寒冷的永夜期間融化。
10:16
And when the land-based ice
of the Arctic melts,
of the Arctic melts,
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而當北極的冰層融化，
10:20
it raises sea level.
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會造成海平面上升。
10:22
Paul Nicklen's beautiful photograph
from Svalbard illustrates this.
from Svalbard illustrates this.
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保羅‧尼克蘭在斯瓦爾巴
拍攝的美麗照片呈現了這個景象。
拍攝的美麗照片呈現了這個景象。
10:26
It's more dangerous coming off Greenland
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融化的現象在格陵蘭更加危急。
10:28
and particularly, Antarctica.
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還有特別是南極。
10:30
The 10 largest risk cities
for sea-level rise by population
for sea-level rise by population
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十個最受海平面上升威脅的城市，
如果以人口來衡量
如果以人口來衡量
10:35
are mostly in South and Southeast Asia.
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大多是位在南亞和東南亞，
10:37
When you measure it by assets at risk,
number one is Miami:
number one is Miami:
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用受到威脅的資產來衡量時，
首當其衝的是邁阿密：
首當其衝的是邁阿密：
10:42
three and a half trillion dollars at risk.
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三兆五千億的美元的風險。
10:44
Number three: New York and Newark.
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第三名則是紐約和紐華克。
10:46
I was in Miami last fall
during the supermoon,
during the supermoon,
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去年秋天，我人在邁阿密，
在超級月亮的期間，
在超級月亮的期間，
10:49
one of the highest high-tide days.
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也就是會有超級滿潮的日子，
10:52
And there were fish from the ocean
swimming in some of the streets
swimming in some of the streets
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來自海洋的魚在街道上游泳，
10:56
of Miami Beach and Fort Lauderdale
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在邁阿密海灘、羅德岱堡
10:58
and Del Rey.
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跟德拉海灘的街道。
10:59
And this happens regularly
during the highest-tide tides now.
during the highest-tide tides now.
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現在這個情況在超級滿潮期間
已成為常態發生的現象。
已成為常態發生的現象。
11:02
Not with rain -- they call it
"sunny-day flooding."
"sunny-day flooding."
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沒有下雨──他們稱之為
「大晴天的水災」。
「大晴天的水災」。
11:05
It comes up through the storm sewers.
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是從雨水下水道冒出來的。
而邁阿密的市長
說出了很多人的心聲，
說出了很多人的心聲，
11:09
And the Mayor of Miami
speaks for many when he says
speaks for many when he says
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11:14
it is long past time this can be viewed
through a partisan lens.
through a partisan lens.
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他說這個問題早已不能
再以黨派的立場看待，
再以黨派的立場看待，
11:18
This is a crisis
that's getting worse day by day.
that's getting worse day by day.
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這是一個災難，
而且一天比一天嚴重。
而且一天比一天嚴重。
11:21
We have to move beyond partisanship.
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我們必須採取超越黨派的行動。
11:23
And I want to take a moment
to honor these House Republicans --
to honor these House Republicans --
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我想花一些時間來對這幾位
眾議院共和黨員表示尊敬──
眾議院共和黨員表示尊敬──
11:27
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
11:28
who had the courage last fall
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他們在去年秋天
11:30
to step out and take a political risk,
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勇敢地站出來並且承擔政治風險，
11:35
by telling the truth
about the climate crisis.
about the climate crisis.
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說出了關於氣候危機的真相。
11:38
So the cost of the climate
crisis is mounting up,
crisis is mounting up,
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氣候危機所付出的代價正在攀升，
11:41
there are many of these aspects
I haven't even mentioned.
I haven't even mentioned.
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還有許多部分是我尚未提到的。
11:45
It's an enormous burden.
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氣候危機是相當龐大的負擔。
11:47
I'll mention just one more,
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我只再舉一個例子。
11:48
because the World Economic Forum
last month in Davos,
last month in Davos,
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上個月在達佛斯的世界經濟論壇，
11:53
after their annual survey
of 750 economists,
of 750 economists,
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在對 750 位經濟學家
提出的年度調查，
提出的年度調查，
11:56
said the climate crisis is now
the number one risk
the number one risk
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指出氣候危機對於世界經濟
是名列第一的威脅之後，
是名列第一的威脅之後，
11:59
to the global economy.
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12:01
So you get central bankers
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你發現中央銀行總裁們，
12:02
like Mark Carney, the head
of the UK Central Bank,
of the UK Central Bank,
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像是馬克·卡尼，英格蘭銀行總裁，
12:05
saying the vast majority
of the carbon reserves are unburnable.
of the carbon reserves are unburnable.
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跳出來說絕大多數蘊藏的碳
是無法開採燃燒的。
是無法開採燃燒的。
12:09
Subprime carbon.
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是「次級」碳。
12:11
I'm not going to remind you what happened
with subprime mortgages,
with subprime mortgages,
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我不是要提醒你們
次級房貸發生了什麼事，
次級房貸發生了什麼事，
12:14
but it's the same thing.
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但這是同樣的道理。
12:16
If you look at all of the carbon fuels
that were burned
that were burned
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如果你們回顧自工業革命開始
12:18
since the beginning
of the industrial revolution,
of the industrial revolution,
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所有被燃燒的碳燃料，
12:21
this is the quantity burned
in the last 16 years.
in the last 16 years.
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這是過去 16 年燃燒的量，
12:25
Here are all the ones that are proven
and left on the books,
and left on the books,
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而這邊是所有被證實
並且登記在案的量，
並且登記在案的量，
12:28
28 trillion dollars.
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28 兆美元。
12:30
The International Energy Agency
says only this amount can be burned.
says only this amount can be burned.
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國際能源署表示只有
這麼多的碳燃料可以開採燃燒，
這麼多的碳燃料可以開採燃燒，
12:34
So the rest, 22 trillion dollars --
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所以其餘的，22 兆美元──
12:37
unburnable.
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無法開採燃燒。
12:39
Risk to the global economy.
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將會對世界經濟造成威脅。
12:41
That's why divestment movement
makes practical sense
makes practical sense
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這也是為什麼（化石燃料）
撤資行動顯得很實際，
撤資行動顯得很實際，
12:44
and is not just a moral imperative.
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而不僅僅只是出於道德上的必要。
12:47
So the answer to the first question,
"Must we change?"
"Must we change?"
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所以第一個問題的答案
「我們一定要改變嗎？」
「我們一定要改變嗎？」
12:51
is yes, we have to change.
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是肯定的，我們必須改變。
12:53
Second question, "Can we change?"
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第二個問題是：
「我們可以改變嗎？」
「我們可以改變嗎？」
12:55
This is the exciting news!
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這是一個讓人興奮的消息！
12:57
The best projections
in the world 16 years ago
in the world 16 years ago
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16 年前世界上最樂觀的預測
13:01
were that by 2010, the world
would be able to install
would be able to install
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4031
是在 2010 年時，
全世界將能夠達到
全世界將能夠達到
13:05
30 gigawatts of wind capacity.
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300 億瓦的風力裝置發電容量，
13:07
We beat that mark
by 14 and a half times over.
by 14 and a half times over.
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但我們以超過 14.5 倍的
實際發展打破了那個目標。
實際發展打破了那個目標。
13:12
We see an exponential curve
for wind installations now.
for wind installations now.
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現在我們看到的是代表
風力發電裝置的指數曲線。
風力發電裝置的指數曲線。
13:16
We see the cost coming down dramatically.
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我們可以看到成本正在急遽降低。
13:19
Some countries -- take Germany,
an industrial powerhouse
an industrial powerhouse
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某些國家──以德國
這樣的工業強國為例，
這樣的工業強國為例，
13:22
with a climate not that different
from Vancouver's, by the way --
from Vancouver's, by the way --
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附帶一提，氣候與溫哥華差不多，
13:26
one day last December,
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去年 12 月的某天，
13:28
got 81 percent of all its energy
from renewable resources,
from renewable resources,
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81% 的能源是來自
可再生的能源，
可再生的能源，
13:31
mainly solar and wind.
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主要是太陽能和風力。
13:33
A lot of countries are getting
more than half on an average basis.
more than half on an average basis.
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許多國家平均使用
一半以上的可再生能源。
一半以上的可再生能源。
13:36
More good news:
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更多的好消息：
13:37
energy storage,
from batteries particularly,
from batteries particularly,
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3023
能量儲存，特別是電池，
13:40
is now beginning to take off
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正在開始起飛，
13:42
because the cost has been
coming down very dramatically
coming down very dramatically
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因為用來解決間歇性問題的成本
已經急速地下降。
已經急速地下降。
13:46
to solve the intermittency problem.
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13:47
With solar, the news is even
more exciting!
more exciting!
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2511
關於太陽能的消息更是令人興奮！
13:50
The best projections 14 years ago
were that we would install
were that we would install
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14 年前最佳的預測是
我們能在 2010 年時
我們能在 2010 年時
13:53
one gigawatt per year by 2010.
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每年達到 10 億瓦，
13:56
When 2010 came around,
we beat that mark by 17 times over.
we beat that mark by 17 times over.
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然而當 2010 年到來時，我們以
超越預測的 17 倍，打敗了目標。
超越預測的 17 倍，打敗了目標。
14:01
Last year, we beat it by 58 times over.
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去年，我們超標 58 倍。
14:04
This year, we're on track
to beat it 68 times over.
to beat it 68 times over.
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今年，我們在朝超標 68 倍前進。
14:07
We're going to win this.
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我們將會成功。
14:09
We are going to prevail.
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我們將會獲勝。
14:10
The exponential curve on solar
is even steeper and more dramatic.
is even steeper and more dramatic.
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838883
4083
太陽能的指數曲線
甚至更陡峭，更有戲劇性。
甚至更陡峭，更有戲劇性。
14:14
When I came to this stage 10 years ago,
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我十年前來到這個講台時，
14:16
this is where it was.
278
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1395
這是它所在的位置。
14:18
We have seen a revolutionary breakthrough
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我們在這些指數曲線的激升上
見證了一場革命性的突破。
見證了一場革命性的突破。
14:22
in the emergence
of these exponential curves.
of these exponential curves.
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14:25
(Applause)
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3224
（掌聲）
14:28
And the cost has come down
10 percent per year
10 percent per year
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而成本也以
每年 10% 的速率降低，
每年 10% 的速率降低，
14:32
for 30 years.
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過去 30 年來皆是，
14:33
And it's continuing to come down.
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並且仍在持續下降。
14:36
Now, the business community
has certainly noticed this,
has certainly noticed this,
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現在，商業界
顯然已注意到這件事，
顯然已注意到這件事，
14:38
because it's crossing
the grid parity point.
the grid parity point.
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2809
因為它正要與市電同價相交了。
14:41
Cheaper solar penetration rates
are beginning to rise.
are beginning to rise.
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869602
3252
較便宜的太陽能
使市場滲透率開始上升，
使市場滲透率開始上升，
14:44
Grid parity is understood
as that line, that threshold,
as that line, that threshold,
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3516
市電同價可以被理解為
像是一條線、一道門檻，
像是一條線、一道門檻，
14:48
below which renewable electricity
is cheaper than electricity
is cheaper than electricity
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在那之下是可再生的電力
比燃燒化石燃料的電力
比燃燒化石燃料的電力
14:52
from burning fossil fuels.
290
880316
2218
還要便宜。
14:54
That threshold is a little bit
like the difference
like the difference
291
882558
2693
這道門檻有點像是
14:57
between 32 degrees Fahrenheit
and 33 degrees Fahrenheit,
and 33 degrees Fahrenheit,
292
885275
4110
華氏 32 度與華氏 33 度，
15:01
or zero and one Celsius.
293
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1586
或者說是攝氏 0 度與 1 度的差別。
15:03
It's a difference of more than one degree,
294
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2024
這不只是多出 1 度的差別，
15:05
it's the difference between ice and water.
295
893067
2701
這是介於冰與水的差別。
15:07
And it's the difference between markets
that are frozen up,
that are frozen up,
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895792
3944
這是將資金
注入邁向冷凍的市場，
注入邁向冷凍的市場，
15:11
and liquid flows of capital
into new opportunities for investment.
into new opportunities for investment.
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899760
4532
與將資金注入
新興投資機會的差別。
新興投資機會的差別。
15:16
This is the biggest
new business opportunity
new business opportunity
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904316
3605
這是世界有史以來
最大的新興產業機會，
最大的新興產業機會，
15:19
in the history of the world,
299
907945
1532
15:21
and two-thirds of it
is in the private sector.
is in the private sector.
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3148
並且有三分之二都是在民營範疇。
15:24
We are seeing an explosion
of new investment.
of new investment.
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912673
3436
我們在目擊一場新興投資的爆發，
15:28
Starting in 2010, investments globally
in renewable electricity generation
in renewable electricity generation
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916133
5568
自 2010 年開始，
全球在可再生能源發電的投資
全球在可再生能源發電的投資
15:33
surpassed fossils.
303
921725
1533
超過化石燃料，
15:35
The gap has been growing ever since.
304
923282
2416
差距並且自此逐漸拉大。
15:37
The projections for the future
are even more dramatic,
are even more dramatic,
305
925722
2948
對於未來的展望也更加令人興奮，
15:40
even though fossil energy
is now still subsidized
is now still subsidized
306
928694
3599
儘管現在化石燃料仍受到
15:44
at a rate 40 times larger than renewables.
307
932317
3227
多過可再生能源 40 倍的資助。
15:47
And by the way, if you add
the projections for nuclear on here,
the projections for nuclear on here,
308
935568
4090
順便一提，
如果你加上對核能的預測，
如果你加上對核能的預測，
15:51
particularly if you assume
that the work many are doing
that the work many are doing
309
939682
2621
特別是如果你假設
有許多人正在努力
有許多人正在努力
15:54
to try to break through to safer
and more acceptable,
and more acceptable,
310
942327
2714
嘗試去突破，
達成更安全、更能被接受
達成更安全、更能被接受
15:57
more affordable forms of nuclear,
311
945065
1839
以及更能負擔的核能形式時，
15:58
this could change even more dramatically.
312
946928
2443
改變可能會更加激烈。
16:01
So is there any precedent
for such a rapid adoption
for such a rapid adoption
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949934
2956
至於過往是否有如此快速
採用一項新科技的先例呢？
採用一項新科技的先例呢？
16:04
of a new technology?
314
952914
1729
16:06
Well, there are many,
but let's look at cell phones.
but let's look at cell phones.
315
954667
2460
是的，有很多，
讓我們回顧一下手機。
讓我們回顧一下手機。
16:09
In 1980, AT&T, then Ma Bell,
316
957151
3373
1980 年， AT&T 電信公司，
那時還叫 Ma Bell，
那時還叫 Ma Bell，
16:12
commissioned McKinsey to do
a global market survey
a global market survey
317
960548
2393
委託麥肯錫公司
對當時新出現的那些笨重手機
對當時新出現的那些笨重手機
16:14
of those clunky new mobile phones
that appeared then.
that appeared then.
318
962965
3616
做一個全球的市場調查。
16:18
"How many can we sell
by the year 2000?" they asked.
by the year 2000?" they asked.
319
966605
3163
他們問：「在 2000 年
我們可以賣出多少隻？」
我們可以賣出多少隻？」
16:21
McKinsey came back and said, "900,000."
320
969792
2568
麥肯錫做了調查並回答說
「90 萬隻。」
「90 萬隻。」
16:24
And sure enough,
when the year 2000 arrived,
when the year 2000 arrived,
321
972384
2072
果然如此，到了 2000 年時
16:26
they did sell 900,000 --
in the first three days.
in the first three days.
322
974480
2578
他們的確賣了 90 萬隻──
在最開始的 3 天。
在最開始的 3 天。
16:29
And for the balance of the year,
they sold 120 times more.
they sold 120 times more.
323
977082
3912
而在年度結餘，
他們賣了比預期的多出 120 倍。
他們賣了比預期的多出 120 倍。
16:33
And now there are more cell connections
than there are people in the world.
than there are people in the world.
324
981018
4376
而現在，世界上
手機的數量甚至比人還多。
手機的數量甚至比人還多。
16:37
So, why were they not only wrong,
but way wrong?
but way wrong?
325
985418
4469
所以為什麼他們不僅錯了，
而且還錯得很離譜呢？
而且還錯得很離譜呢？
16:41
I've asked that question myself, "Why?"
326
989911
2400
我也問過我自己這個問題：
「為什麼？」
「為什麼？」
16:44
(Laughter)
327
992335
1003
（笑聲）
16:45
And I think the answer is in three parts.
328
993362
2233
我想答案可以分成三個部份。
16:48
First, the cost came down much faster
than anybody expected,
than anybody expected,
329
996122
3389
首先，手機成本下降的速度
快到超過所有人的預期，
快到超過所有人的預期，
16:51
even as the quality went up.
330
999535
2507
儘管品質是提升的。
16:54
And low-income countries, places
that did not have a landline grid --
that did not have a landline grid --
331
1002066
4272
而在低收入國家，
在沒有通訊線路的地方──
在沒有通訊線路的地方──
16:58
they leap-frogged to the new technology.
332
1006362
2228
他們直接跳躍到新的科技。
17:00
The big expansion has been
in the developing counties.
in the developing counties.
333
1008614
3064
這種龐大的擴張在開發中國家盛行。
17:03
So what about the electricity grids
in the developing world?
in the developing world?
334
1011702
3748
那麼輸電網路
在開發中國家的表現又如何呢？
在開發中國家的表現又如何呢？
17:07
Well, not so hot.
335
1015474
1730
嗯，沒那麼熱門。
17:09
And in many areas, they don't exist.
336
1017228
2298
而且在許多地區
根本沒有輸電網路。
根本沒有輸電網路。
17:11
There are more people
without any electricity at all in India
without any electricity at all in India
337
1019550
3146
在印度，沒有任何電力可用的人
17:14
than the entire population
of the United States of America.
of the United States of America.
338
1022720
3122
比起全美國的總人口數還要多。
17:17
So now we're getting this:
339
1025866
1504
所以我們得到這個結果：
17:19
solar panels on grass huts
340
1027394
1838
太陽能面板裝在茅草屋上，
17:21
and new business models
that make it affordable.
that make it affordable.
341
1029256
2938
而新的商業模式使人們能負擔得起。
17:24
Muhammad Yunus financed
this one in Bangladesh with micro-credit.
this one in Bangladesh with micro-credit.
342
1032218
4885
穆罕默德·尤納斯在孟加拉
提供低息小額貸款安裝這種面板。
提供低息小額貸款安裝這種面板。
17:29
This is a village market.
343
1037127
1708
這是某個村莊的市場。
17:30
Bangladesh is now the fastest-deploying
country in the world:
country in the world:
344
1038859
2890
孟加拉現在是世界上
發展最快速的開發中國家：
發展最快速的開發中國家：
17:33
two systems per minute
on average, night and day.
on average, night and day.
345
1041773
2412
每一天平均每分鐘
便安裝二套太陽能系統。
便安裝二套太陽能系統。
17:36
And we have all we need:
346
1044209
1189
我們擁有我們需要的一切：
17:37
enough energy from the Sun
comes to the Earth
comes to the Earth
347
1045422
2292
每個小時都有足以
提供全球一整年所需的能源
提供全球一整年所需的能源
17:39
every hour to supply the full world's
energy needs for an entire year.
energy needs for an entire year.
348
1047738
5363
從太陽進入地球，
17:45
It's actually a little bit
less than an hour.
less than an hour.
349
1053125
2173
事實上甚至是
不到一個小時就夠了。
不到一個小時就夠了。
17:47
So the answer to the second question,
"Can we change?"
"Can we change?"
350
1055322
3332
所以回答第二個問題：
「我們可以改變嗎？」
「我們可以改變嗎？」
17:50
is clearly "Yes."
351
1058678
1923
很明顯地，「可以」。
17:52
And it's an ever-firmer "yes."
352
1060625
2772
而且是再堅定不過的「可以」。
17:55
Last question, "Will we change?"
353
1063421
2608
最後一個問題：
「我們會改變嗎？」
「我們會改變嗎？」
17:58
Paris really was a breakthrough,
354
1066053
1992
巴黎高峰會是一個真正的突破，
18:00
some of the provisions are binding
355
1068069
1663
有些條款具有約束力，
18:01
and the regular reviews will matter a lot.
356
1069756
2038
而定期的審查將是很重要的。
18:03
But nations aren't waiting,
they're going ahead.
they're going ahead.
357
1071818
2251
但各個國家可沒在空等待，
他們已毫不遲疑地開始行動。
他們已毫不遲疑地開始行動。
18:06
China has already announced
that starting next year,
that starting next year,
358
1074093
2515
中國早就宣佈，明年開始，
18:08
they're adopting a nationwide
cap and trade system.
cap and trade system.
359
1076632
2983
他們將要採用一套全國性的
（排放）總量管制與交易制度。
（排放）總量管制與交易制度。
18:11
They will likely link up
with the European Union.
with the European Union.
360
1079639
3143
他們極有可能與歐盟聯手。
18:14
The United States
has already been changing.
has already been changing.
361
1082806
2492
美國也已經在改變。
18:17
All of these coal plants were proposed
362
1085322
2050
所有計畫在未來十年內
要建設的燃煤發電廠
要建設的燃煤發電廠
18:19
in the next 10 years and canceled.
363
1087396
2530
都被取消了。
18:21
All of these existing
coal plants were retired.
coal plants were retired.
364
1089950
2919
這些現存的燃煤發電廠
也已關廠。
也已關廠。
18:24
All of these coal plants have had
their retirement announced.
their retirement announced.
365
1092893
3017
而剩下的這些燃煤發電廠
也已受到宣告將要關閉。
也已受到宣告將要關閉。
18:27
All of them -- canceled.
366
1095934
2328
這些全部──都被廢除了。
18:30
We are moving forward.
367
1098286
1490
我們在前進。
18:31
Last year -- if you look at
all of the investment
all of the investment
368
1099800
2468
去年──如果你觀察
18:34
in new electricity generation
in the United States,
in the United States,
369
1102292
2943
所有在美國的新型發電投資，
18:37
almost three-quarters
was from renewable energy,
was from renewable energy,
370
1105259
2666
幾乎有四分之三是來自再生能源，
18:39
mostly wind and solar.
371
1107949
2512
其中大部分是風力與太陽能。
18:42
We are solving this crisis.
372
1110485
3147
我們正在解決這項危機。
18:45
The only question is:
how long will it take to get there?
how long will it take to get there?
373
1113656
4899
唯一的問題是：
「要花多久的時間？」
「要花多久的時間？」
18:50
So, it matters that a lot
of people are organizing
of people are organizing
374
1118579
4617
所以，人們組織起來
堅持這項改變是相當重要的。
堅持這項改變是相當重要的。
18:55
to insist on this change.
375
1123220
2138
18:57
Almost 400,000 people
marched in New York City
marched in New York City
376
1125382
3784
有近乎四十萬人於紐約市遊行，
19:01
before the UN special session on this.
377
1129190
2847
在聯合國針對此問題的
特別會議召開前夕。
特別會議召開前夕。
19:04
Many thousands, tens of thousands,
378
1132061
2004
數千人，數萬人
19:06
marched in cities around the world.
379
1134089
2873
遊行於世界各個城市。
19:08
And so, I am extremely optimistic.
380
1136986
4143
因此，我感到相當樂觀。
19:13
As I said before,
we are going to win this.
we are going to win this.
381
1141153
2555
就如同我前面所說的，
我們將會勝利。
我們將會勝利。
19:15
I'll finish with this story.
382
1143732
1967
我要以這個故事來做結尾。
19:18
When I was 13 years old,
383
1146218
2592
當我 13 歲的時候，
19:20
I heard that proposal by President Kennedy
384
1148834
3431
我聽到甘迺迪總統的計畫，
19:24
to land a person on the Moon
and bring him back safely
and bring him back safely
385
1152289
2551
要讓人登陸月球
並平安無事地回來，
並平安無事地回來，
19:26
in 10 years.
386
1154864
1165
在十年之內。
19:28
And I heard adults
of that day and time say,
of that day and time say,
387
1156053
2984
我也聽到當時的大人說：
19:31
"That's reckless, expensive,
may well fail."
may well fail."
388
1159061
3517
「這是魯莽、昂貴、
極可能失敗的。」
極可能失敗的。」
19:34
But eight years and two months later,
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但是八年二個月之後，
19:36
in the moment that Neil Armstrong
set foot on the Moon,
set foot on the Moon,
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3262
當尼爾·阿姆斯壯踏上
月球的剎那，
月球的剎那，
19:40
there was great cheer that went up
in NASA's mission control in Houston.
in NASA's mission control in Houston.
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在休士頓 NASA 的任務中心
發出了響徹雲霄的歡呼。
發出了響徹雲霄的歡呼。
19:44
Here's a little-known fact about that:
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這裡是一些鮮為人知的事實：
19:47
the average age of the systems engineers,
393
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2205
當天在那個房間裡的
系統工程師、管制員的
系統工程師、管制員的
19:49
the controllers in the room
that day, was 26,
that day, was 26,
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3176
平均年齡是 26 歲。
19:52
which means, among other things,
395
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1559
這代表，包括其它事情，
19:54
their age, when they heard
that challenge, was 18.
that challenge, was 18.
396
1182199
3250
他們在聽到那項挑戰時
是 18 歲。
是 18 歲。
19:57
We now have a moral challenge
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1185473
3202
我們現在則有一個道德挑戰，
20:00
that is in the tradition of others
that we have faced.
that we have faced.
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1188699
3530
一如我們過往所面臨的挑戰。
20:04
One of the greatest poets
of the last century in the US,
of the last century in the US,
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3654
美國上個世紀一位傑出的詩人，
20:07
Wallace Stevens,
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1349
華萊士·史蒂文斯，
20:09
wrote a line that has stayed with me:
401
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1818
寫了一段我銘記在心的話：
20:11
"After the final 'no,'
there comes a 'yes,'
there comes a 'yes,'
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1199146
2483
「在最終的『不』之後，
將會迎來一個『好』。
將會迎來一個『好』。
20:13
and on that 'yes',
the future world depends."
the future world depends."
403
1201653
2981
而那個『好』，
未來世界取決於上。」
未來世界取決於上。」
20:16
When the abolitionists
started their movement,
started their movement,
404
1204658
2285
當廢奴主義者開始他們的運動時，
20:18
they met with no after no after no.
405
1206967
2207
他們碰到一個又一個的不，
20:21
And then came a yes.
406
1209198
1276
然後是一個好。
20:22
The Women's Suffrage
and Women's Rights Movement
and Women's Rights Movement
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1210498
2389
女性參政權與女權運動
20:24
met endless no's, until finally,
there was a yes.
there was a yes.
408
1212911
3595
碰到無數的不，
直到最後得到了一個好。
直到最後得到了一個好。
20:28
The Civil Rights Movement,
the movement against apartheid,
the movement against apartheid,
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1216530
2771
黑人民權運動，
即反對種族隔離的運動，
即反對種族隔離的運動，
20:31
and more recently, the movement
for gay and lesbian rights
for gay and lesbian rights
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1219325
3591
以及就在最近
關於男女同性戀權利的運動，
關於男女同性戀權利的運動，
20:34
here in the United States and elsewhere.
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2405
在美國以及世界各地，
20:37
After the final "no" comes a "yes."
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1225369
2176
在最終的「不」之後，
是一個「好」。
是一個「好」。
20:39
When any great moral challenge
is ultimately resolved
is ultimately resolved
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1227569
5133
當任何一個重要的道德挑戰，
最終成為對錯之間的二元選擇時，
20:44
into a binary choice
between what is right and what is wrong,
between what is right and what is wrong,
414
1232726
3855
20:48
the outcome is fore-ordained
because of who we are as human beings.
because of who we are as human beings.
415
1236605
4129
結果是注定的，
因為我們身為人類。
因為我們身為人類。
20:52
Ninety-nine percent of us,
that is where we are now
that is where we are now
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1240758
3853
99% 的我們，
這是我們現在的處境，
這是我們現在的處境，
20:56
and it is why we're going to win this.
417
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2492
這也是我們為什麼會獲勝的原因。
20:59
We have everything we need.
418
1247151
1938
我們擁有我們所需要的一切。
21:01
Some still doubt that we have
the will to act,
the will to act,
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1249113
3415
有些人仍在懷疑
我們是否有行動的意志。
我們是否有行動的意志。
21:04
but I say the will to act is itself
a renewable resource.
a renewable resource.
420
1252552
4690
但我要說行動的意志本身
就是可再生的能源。
就是可再生的能源。
21:09
Thank you very much.
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1257266
1207
非常謝謝你們。
21:10
(Applause)
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1258497
3471
（掌聲）
21:47
Chris Anderson: You've got this incredible
combination of skills.
combination of skills.
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1295319
3183
克里斯·安德森：
你有超乎尋常的結合能力。
你有超乎尋常的結合能力。
21:50
You've got this scientist mind
that can understand
that can understand
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2961
你有科學家的頭腦可以了解
21:53
the full range of issues,
425
1301511
2301
這整個議題，
21:55
and the ability to turn it
into the most vivid language.
into the most vivid language.
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1303836
3652
並且有能力將之化成生動的語言。
21:59
No one else can do that,
that's why you led this thing.
that's why you led this thing.
427
1307512
2883
沒有其他人可以做到這一點，
這正是為什麼是由你領導這個行動。
這正是為什麼是由你領導這個行動。
十年前聽到令人震撼，
現在依然也是。
現在依然也是。
22:02
It was amazing to see it 10 years ago,
it was amazing to see it now.
it was amazing to see it now.
428
1310419
3411
22:05
Al Gore: Well, you're nice
to say that, Chris.
to say that, Chris.
429
1313854
2175
艾爾·高爾：
你太客氣了，克理斯。
你太客氣了，克理斯。
22:08
But honestly, I have a lot
of really good friends
of really good friends
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1316053
3161
但老實說，
我有很多很棒的朋友
我有很多很棒的朋友
22:11
in the scientific community
who are incredibly patient
who are incredibly patient
431
1319238
3719
來自於科學界，他們不厭其煩的
22:14
and who will sit there
and explain this stuff to me
and explain this stuff to me
432
1322981
2771
坐在那邊並對我解釋這一切，
22:17
over and over and over again
433
1325776
1334
一遍又一遍，
22:19
until I can get it
into simple enough language
into simple enough language
434
1327134
3596
直到我可以理解並能轉化成
我可以了解的簡單語言。
我可以了解的簡單語言。
22:22
that I can understand it.
435
1330754
1212
22:23
And that's the key to trying
to communicate.
to communicate.
436
1331990
2928
而這也是去嘗試溝通的要點。
22:27
CA: So, your talk. First part: terrifying,
437
1335497
3685
克理斯：所以，在你的演講中
第一個部分：可怕的。
第一個部分：可怕的。
22:31
second part: incredibly hopeful.
438
1339206
1937
第二個部分：充滿無比希望的。
22:33
How do we know that all those graphs,
all that progress, is enough
all that progress, is enough
439
1341810
5301
我們怎麼知道這邊
所有的圖表、所有的進步，
所有的圖表、所有的進步，
是足以用來解決
你在第一部分所展示的問題呢？
你在第一部分所展示的問題呢？
22:39
to solve what you showed
in the first part?
in the first part?
440
1347135
2728
22:41
AG: I think that the crossing --
441
1349887
3528
高爾：我想在跨越……
22:45
you know, I've only been
in the business world for 15 years.
in the business world for 15 years.
442
1353439
3013
你知道，我進入商業界
只有 15 年。
只有 15 年。
22:48
But one of the things I've learned
is that apparently it matters
is that apparently it matters
443
1356476
3278
但我學到的其中一件事就是，
很顯然一項新商品或是服務
很顯然一項新商品或是服務
22:51
if a new product or service
is more expensive
is more expensive
444
1359778
3164
是否比現有的商品
更貴或更便宜很重要，
更貴或更便宜很重要，
22:54
than the incumbent, or cheaper than.
445
1362966
2154
22:57
Turns out, it makes a difference
if it's cheaper than.
if it's cheaper than.
446
1365144
2555
而結果是，
更便宜時才會造成改變。
更便宜時才會造成改變。
22:59
(Laughter)
447
1367723
1095
（笑聲）
23:00
And when it crosses that line,
448
1368842
2694
而當跨越那個標準時，
23:03
then a lot of things really change.
449
1371560
1896
很多事情便真正改變了。
23:05
We are regularly surprised
by these developments.
by these developments.
450
1373480
2945
我們經常對這些發展感到驚訝。
23:08
The late Rudi Dornbusch,
the great economist said,
the great economist said,
451
1376449
2547
已故的偉大經濟學家
魯迪‧登布修曾說：
魯迪‧登布修曾說：
23:11
"Things take longer to happen
then you think they will,
then you think they will,
452
1379020
2796
「事情發展得比你預期得慢，
23:13
and then they happen much faster
than you thought they could."
than you thought they could."
453
1381840
2958
然後又發展得超乎你想像得快。」
我真的認為那是我們現在的處境。
23:16
I really think that's where we are.
454
1384822
1698
23:18
Some people are using the phrase
"The Solar Singularity" now,
"The Solar Singularity" now,
455
1386544
3677
有些人現在甚至用
「太陽能唯一」這個詞，
「太陽能唯一」這個詞，
23:22
meaning when it gets
below the grid parity,
below the grid parity,
456
1390245
3293
來表示當太陽能下降至
市電平價之下，
市電平價之下，
23:25
unsubsidized in most places,
457
1393562
2048
且在大部分的地區
都不需要受到資助時，
都不需要受到資助時，
23:27
then it's the default choice.
458
1395634
1642
太陽能將成為一個預設的選擇。
23:29
Now, in one of the presentations
yesterday, the jitney thing,
yesterday, the jitney thing,
459
1397300
5990
那麼昨天有一場演說
在談共享計程車，
在談共享計程車，
23:35
there is an effort to use
regulations to slow this down.
regulations to slow this down.
460
1403314
5107
有些人也嘗試用法律規範
來拖延太陽能的發展，
來拖延太陽能的發展，
23:40
And I just don't think it's going to work.
461
1408445
3139
但我就是認為這不可能成功。
23:44
There's a woman in Atlanta, Debbie Dooley,
462
1412608
2396
在亞特蘭大有一位婦女
黛比‧朵莉，
黛比‧朵莉，
23:47
who's the Chairman
of the Atlanta Tea Party.
of the Atlanta Tea Party.
463
1415028
2081
她是亞特蘭大茶黨的主席。
23:49
They enlisted her
in this effort to put a tax
in this effort to put a tax
464
1417133
2177
他們徵召她來為課徵太陽能板稅收
與相關規範出力。
與相關規範出力。
23:51
on solar panels and regulations.
465
1419334
2123
23:53
And she had just put
solar panels on her roof
solar panels on her roof
466
1421481
2119
而她才剛剛將太陽能板裝上屋頂。
23:55
and she didn't understand the request.
467
1423624
1866
所以她不太能理解他們的請求。
23:57
(Laughter)
468
1425514
1765
（笑聲）
23:59
And so she went and formed
an alliance with the Sierra Club
an alliance with the Sierra Club
469
1427303
3478
因此，她跑去與環保組織
塞拉俱樂部組織同盟，
塞拉俱樂部組織同盟，
24:02
and they formed a new organization
called the Green Tea Party.
called the Green Tea Party.
470
1430805
4053
他們成立了一個新的組織
叫綠茶黨。
叫綠茶黨。
24:06
(Laughter)
471
1434882
1002
（笑聲）
24:07
(Applause)
472
1435908
1001
（掌聲）
24:08
And they defeated the proposal.
473
1436933
1488
他們否決了那項提議。
24:10
So, finally, the answer
to your question is,
to your question is,
474
1438445
3226
所以，最後，
對於你問題的答案是，
對於你問題的答案是，
24:13
this sounds a little corny
and maybe it's a cliché,
and maybe it's a cliché,
475
1441695
3033
這可能聽起來有點老掉牙，
而且或許有些陳腔濫調，
而且或許有些陳腔濫調，
24:16
but 10 years ago -- and Christiana
referred to this --
referred to this --
476
1444752
3516
但是十年前──
克莉斯丁安娜提到──
克莉斯丁安娜提到──
24:20
there are people in this audience
who played an incredibly significant role
who played an incredibly significant role
477
1448292
5907
這群觀眾之中有某些人
扮演了難以言喻的重要角色，
扮演了難以言喻的重要角色，
24:26
in generating those exponential curves.
478
1454223
2801
貢獻產生那些指數曲線。
24:29
And it didn't work out economically
for some of them,
for some of them,
479
1457048
2524
他們之中有某些人
經濟上來說並沒有成功，
經濟上來說並沒有成功，
24:31
but it kick-started
this global revolution.
this global revolution.
480
1459596
3054
但卻為了地球的改革
揭開了序幕。
揭開了序幕。
24:34
And what people in this audience do now
481
1462674
3779
而在場的觀眾們現在
24:38
with the knowledge
that we are going to win this.
that we are going to win this.
482
1466477
2505
有了我們將會勝利的認知。
24:41
But it matters a lot how fast we win it.
483
1469006
4230
但是我們能多快成功
將影響重大。
將影響重大。
24:45
CA: Al Gore, that was incredibly powerful.
484
1473260
2357
克里斯：艾爾‧高爾，
那真是撼動人心的回答。
那真是撼動人心的回答。
24:47
If this turns out to be the year,
485
1475641
1675
如果今年剛巧就是
24:49
that the partisan thing changes,
486
1477340
2828
政黨輪替的一年，
24:52
as you said, it's no longer
a partisan issue,
a partisan issue,
487
1480192
3378
如你所言，
這不再只是一個黨的問題，
這不再只是一個黨的問題，
24:55
but you bring along people
from the other side together,
from the other side together,
488
1483594
4166
而你凝聚了雙方人馬，
24:59
backed by science, backed by these kinds
of investment opportunities,
of investment opportunities,
489
1487784
3285
有科學、各種投資機會背書，
25:03
backed my reason that you win the day --
490
1491093
2108
有你說服大家的理由背書，
25:05
boy, that's really exciting.
491
1493225
2359
朋友，這真是非常振奮人心，
25:07
Thank you so much.
492
1495608
1168
非常謝謝你。
25:08
AG: Thank you so much
for bringing me back to TED.
for bringing me back to TED.
493
1496800
2507
高爾：非常感謝你們
邀請我重返 TED。
邀請我重返 TED。
謝謝！
25:11
Thank you!
494
1499331
1151
25:12
(Applause)
495
1500506
2606
（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Al Gore - Climate advocateNobel Laureate Al Gore focused the world’s attention on the global climate crisis. Now he’s showing us how we’re moving towards real solutions.
Why you should listen
Former Vice President Al Gore is co-founder and chairman of Generation Investment Management. While he’s is a senior partner at Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, and a member of Apple, Inc.’s board of directors, Gore spends the majority of his time as chair of The Climate Reality Project, a nonprofit devoted to solving the climate crisis.
He is the author of the bestsellers Earth in the Balance, An Inconvenient Truth, The Assault on Reason, Our Choice: A Plan to Solve the Climate Crisis, and most recently, The Future: Six Drivers of Global Change. He is the subject of the Oscar-winning documentary An Inconvenient Truth and is the co-recipient, with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, of the Nobel Peace Prize for 2007 for “informing the world of the dangers posed by climate change.”
Gore was elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 1976, 1978, 1980 and 1982 and the U.S. Senate in 1984 and 1990. He was inaugurated as the 45th Vice President of the United States on January 20, 1993, and served eight years.
Al Gore | Speaker | TED.com