TED@BCG Paris
Martin Reeves: How to build a business that lasts 100 years
馬丁.里夫斯: 如何建立一個百年企業
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如果你想創建一個壽命長久的企業，沒有比在你的免疫系統中尋求答案更好的了。讓我們和策略家馬丁.里夫斯（Martin Reeves）一起，了解企業壽命逐漸變短的驚人數據，並聽他解釋決策者應如何運用生物體中的六條法則來建造出堅韌的企業並在面對變化多端的大潮中繁榮發展。
Martin Reeves - Strategist
BCG's Martin Reeves consults on strategy to global enterprises across a range of industries. Full bio
BCG's Martin Reeves consults on strategy to global enterprises across a range of industries. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Imagine that you are a product designer.
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想像一下，你現在是一位產品設計師。
00:16
And you've designed a product,
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你已經設計好一個產品，
一種新產品，
00:18
a new type of product,
called the human immune system.
called the human immune system.
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叫做人類免疫系統。
00:23
You're pitching this product
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你正在向一個多疑、嚴格、少廢話的經理
投售簡報你的這項產品。
投售簡報你的這項產品。
00:24
to a skeptical, strictly
no-nonsense manager.
no-nonsense manager.
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00:28
Let's call him Bob.
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我們就叫他「包柏」吧。
00:29
I think we all know
at least one Bob, right?
at least one Bob, right?
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各位至少都有認識一位
叫「包柏」的人，對吧？
叫「包柏」的人，對吧？
00:33
How would that go?
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會如何進行呢？
00:35
Bob, I've got this incredible idea
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包柏，我有一個很棒的想法，
00:37
for a completely new type
of personal health product.
of personal health product.
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一個全新型態的個人健康產品。
00:40
It's called the human immune system.
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它叫做人類免疫系統。
00:43
I can see from your face that
you're having some problems with this.
you're having some problems with this.
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我看到你臉上對這項產品
充滿了狐疑。
充滿了狐疑。
00:46
Don't worry. I know it's very complicated.
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但別擔心，我知道這產品很複雜。
00:48
I don't want to take you
through the gory details,
through the gory details,
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我不會贅述那些無聊的細節，
00:51
I just want to tell you about some
of the amazing features of this product.
of the amazing features of this product.
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我只會告訴你一些
這項產品的主要特色。
這項產品的主要特色。
00:55
First of all, it cleverly uses redundancy
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首先，這項產品很聰明地
運用了冗餘設計，
運用了冗餘設計，
00:58
by having millions of copies
of each component --
of each component --
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它擁有上百萬的備用組織——
01:01
leukocytes, white blood cells --
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白血球，白血球細胞——
01:04
before they're actually needed,
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在必要的時候，會大量製造出來
01:05
to create a massive buffer
against the unexpected.
against the unexpected.
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來對抗意外的發生。
01:10
And it cleverly leverages diversity
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而且它還有「多樣性」的特徵，
01:13
by having not just leukocytes
but B cells, T cells,
but B cells, T cells,
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不僅有白血球，還有 B 細胞、Ｔ細胞、
01:17
natural killer cells, antibodies.
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自然殺手細胞、抗體。
01:19
The components don't really matter.
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成分並不是那麼重要，
01:21
The point is that together,
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重點是，全部加在一起，
01:23
this diversity of different approaches
can cope with more or less anything
can cope with more or less anything
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這種多樣性的方式，
幾乎可以解決演化中
出現的所有問題。
出現的所有問題。
01:27
that evolution has been able to throw up.
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01:31
And the design is completely modular.
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而且，它的設計十分「模塊化」，
01:35
You have the surface barrier
of the human skin,
of the human skin,
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會讓你有人類皮膚表面的
天然屏障功效、
天然屏障功效、
01:39
you have the very rapidly reacting
innate immune system
innate immune system
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還有反應非常快的
內部免疫系統，
內部免疫系統，
01:42
and then you have the highly targeted
adaptive immune system.
adaptive immune system.
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還有針對病因適應力極強的
高效免疫系統，
高效免疫系統，
01:47
The point is, that if one system fails,
another can take over,
another can take over,
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重點是，即使一種機制失效
另一種也能及時補上
另一種也能及時補上
01:50
creating a virtually foolproof system.
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創造出十分安全的系統。
01:55
I can see I'm losing you, Bob,
but stay with me,
but stay with me,
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我知道你開始聽不懂了，
但包柏請聽我說完
但包柏請聽我說完
01:57
because here is the really killer feature.
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因為我接下來要介紹一個
超殺的特色。
超殺的特色。
02:01
The product is completely adaptive.
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這個產品有超強的適應力，
02:04
It's able to actually develop
targeted antibodies
targeted antibodies
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它可以針對從未見過的病原
02:09
to threats that it's never
even met before.
even met before.
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制造出相應的抗體
02:12
It actually also does this
with incredible prudence,
with incredible prudence,
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它還可以十分精準地
02:17
detecting and reacting
to every tiny threat,
to every tiny threat,
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發現並對各種微不足道的危機做出反應，
02:21
and furthermore, remembering
every previous threat,
every previous threat,
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除此之外，它還有記憶
每一個危機的功能，
每一個危機的功能，
02:25
in case they are ever encountered again.
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萬一發生之前同樣的威脅時，
它可以立刻抵抗。
它可以立刻抵抗。
02:28
What I'm pitching you today
is actually not a stand-alone product.
is actually not a stand-alone product.
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我今天向你投售報告的，
其實不是一種獨立運作的產品
其實不是一種獨立運作的產品
02:33
The product is embedded
in the larger system of the human body,
in the larger system of the human body,
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這個產品與整個人體相結合
02:38
and it works in complete harmony
with that system,
with that system,
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完全與人體系統相容，
02:40
to create this unprecedented level
of biological protection.
of biological protection.
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創造出了前所未有的生物保護水準。
02:44
So Bob, just tell me honestly,
what do you think of my product?
what do you think of my product?
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所以包柏，老實說，
你覺得我的產品如何？
你覺得我的產品如何？
02:48
And Bob may say something like,
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然後，包柏可能會這樣說，
02:50
I sincerely appreciate
the effort and passion
the effort and passion
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我真摯地讚賞你在展示中
02:53
that have gone into your presentation,
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所表現出的努力和熱情。
02:56
blah blah blah --
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還有......（開始廢話）
02:57
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
02:59
But honestly, it's total nonsense.
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但說實在的，好像沒什麼道理。
03:04
You seem to be saying that the key
selling points of your product
selling points of your product
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你好像在說明，產品的主要賣點
03:07
are that it is inefficient and complex.
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是沒什麼效率且複雜的。
03:10
Didn't they teach you 80-20?
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他們沒有教你 80/20 法則嗎？
03:13
And furthermore, you're saying
that this product is siloed.
that this product is siloed.
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此外，你還提到，
這個產品很浪費，
這個產品很浪費，
03:17
It overreacts,
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它反應過於激烈
03:19
makes things up as it goes along
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制造出很多無效的東西，
03:20
and is actually designed
for somebody else's benefit.
for somebody else's benefit.
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它的效益明顯不高。
03:23
I'm sorry to break it to you,
but I don't think this one is a winner.
but I don't think this one is a winner.
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很抱歉，要讓你失望了，
但我不認為你的產品可以勝出。
但我不認為你的產品可以勝出。
03:27
If we went with Bob's philosophy,
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如果我們同意鮑勃的觀點
03:29
I think we'd actually end up
with a more efficient immune system.
with a more efficient immune system.
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我們實際上最終會生產出
更高效的免疫系統
更高效的免疫系統
03:32
And efficiency is always important
in the short term.
in the short term.
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而且效率在短期來說往往十分重要
03:36
Less complex, more efficient,
more bang for the buck.
more bang for the buck.
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少些覆雜、多些效率、便宜又大碗，
03:40
Who could say no to that?
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誰會想拒絕？
03:42
Unfortunately, there's one
very tiny problem,
very tiny problem,
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很不幸的，還有一個很小的問題，
03:44
and that is that the user
of this product, you or I,
of this product, you or I,
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就是這個產品的使用者，你或我，
03:47
would probably die
within one week of the next winter,
within one week of the next winter,
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在下一個冬季，
當我們遇上一個新型的流感病毒時
可能在一個星期內就會死亡。
可能在一個星期內就會死亡。
03:51
when we encountered a new strain
of the influenza virus.
of the influenza virus.
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03:57
I first became interested
in biology and business,
in biology and business,
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我第一次對生物學、事業、
04:01
and longevity and resilience,
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以及持久性和抗壓性
變得這麼有興趣，
變得這麼有興趣，
04:03
when I was asked a very unusual question
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是被一個全球科技公司的CEO
04:06
by the CEO of a global tech company.
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問了一個問題的時後。
04:09
And the question was:
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那個問題是這樣：
04:10
What do we have to do to make sure
that our company lasts 100 years?
that our company lasts 100 years?
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我們要如何確保公司
持續運作超過100年？
持續運作超過100年？
04:18
A seemingly innocent question,
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看上去是一個幼稚的問題，
04:20
but actually, it's a little trickier
than you might think,
than you might think,
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卻比你想像中的還要複雜，
04:24
considering that the average
US public company now
US public company now
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因為目前美國上市公司的
預期平均壽命
預期平均壽命
04:28
can expect a life span of only 30 years.
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只有30年。
04:33
That is less than half of the life span
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這幾乎是它的員工
04:35
that its employees can expect to enjoy.
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工作壽命的一半。
04:39
Now, if you were the CEO
of such a company,
of such a company,
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現在，如果你就是
這麼一家公司的CEO，
這麼一家公司的CEO，
04:42
badgered by investors
and buffeted by change,
and buffeted by change,
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被投資人煩的要死
又要忙於應付市場的變化，
又要忙於應付市場的變化，
04:46
we might forgive you
for not even worrying too much
for not even worrying too much
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我們也許還能體諒你
沒時間思考
公司未來的30年方向。
公司未來的30年方向。
04:48
about what happens 30 years out.
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04:51
But here's something that should
keep you awake at night:
keep you awake at night:
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但有件事應該會讓你晚上睡不著覺：
04:55
the probability that your company
will not be around in five year's time,
will not be around in five year's time,
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你的公司在5年後倒閉的可能性
04:59
on average, is now
a staggering 32 percent.
a staggering 32 percent.
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平均在32%上下浮動
05:04
That's a one in three chance
that your company will be taken over
that your company will be taken over
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也就是有將近三分之一的機率
05:08
or will fail within just five years.
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你的公司會在5年後被轉手或是倒閉。
05:13
Let's come back
to our tech CEO's question.
to our tech CEO's question.
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讓我們回到科技總裁的問題。
05:16
Where better to turn
for advice than nature,
for advice than nature,
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哪裏有向比大自然
學習更好的方法呢？
學習更好的方法呢？
05:19
that's been in the business
of life and death
of life and death
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大自然已經在生死輪回的遊戲中
05:22
for longer than any company?
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比任何公司存活得還要久。
05:27
As a lapsed biologist,
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身為一位外行的生物學家，
05:28
I decided to immediately call
a real biologist,
a real biologist,
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我決定馬上去請教
真正內行的生物學家，
真正內行的生物學家，
05:32
my friend Simon Levin,
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我的朋友賽門萊文，
05:34
Professor of Biology and Mathematics
at Princeton University.
at Princeton University.
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普林斯頓大學的生物數學教授。
05:38
Together, we looked at a variety
of biological systems,
of biological systems,
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我們共同研究了許多生態系統，
05:42
ranging from natural tropical rainforests
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範圍從天然熱帶雨林
05:45
through to managed forests and fisheries.
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到人造森林和漁業。
05:48
And we asked ourselves the question:
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我們問自己一個問題：
05:50
What makes these systems
resilient and enduring?
resilient and enduring?
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是什麼使這些系統具有抗壓能力
和持續性的？
和持續性的？
05:56
And what we found
was that the same six principles
was that the same six principles
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我們發現恰恰是
支撐人體免疫系統的
支撐人體免疫系統的
06:00
that we saw underpinning
the miracle of the human immune system
the miracle of the human immune system
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六條規律。
06:03
actually cropped up again and again,
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從冗餘設計到鑲嵌性
一次又一次的出現。
一次又一次的出現。
06:07
from redundancy through to embeddedness.
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06:11
In fact, we saw these principles
not only in biologically enduring systems,
not only in biologically enduring systems,
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實際上，我們發現到，這些準則
不僅出現在生物永續系統中，
不僅出現在生物永續系統中，
06:15
we also found them
being very characteristic
being very characteristic
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它們在壽命長久的社會系統中
06:18
of long-lived social systems,
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也表現得十分突出，
06:20
like the Roman Empire
and the Catholic Church,
and the Catholic Church,
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例如羅馬帝國及天主教教堂，
06:22
believe it or not.
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信不信由你。
06:24
We also went on to look at business,
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我們還深入研究企業，
06:26
and found that these very same properties
also characterized businesses
also characterized businesses
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也發現它們在堅韌且長久的企業中
06:30
that were resilient and long-lived,
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也表現的非常明顯。
06:32
and we noted their absence
from ones which were short-lived.
from ones which were short-lived.
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我們也注意到，缺乏這些要素的企業，
通常也比較短命。
通常也比較短命。
06:39
Let's first take a look at what happens
when the corporate immune system
when the corporate immune system
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我們先來看看，
當企業的免疫機制失效時
會發生什麼。
會發生什麼。
06:43
collapses.
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06:45
This beautiful building is part
of the Shitennoji Temple Complex
of the Shitennoji Temple Complex
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這一棟漂亮的建築物
是日本大阪天王寺院的其中一部分。
06:49
in Osaka, Japan.
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06:51
In fact, it's one of the oldest
temples in Japan.
temples in Japan.
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實際上，它是日本最古老的寺廟。
06:55
It was built by a Korean artisan,
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由一位韓國工匠所建築的，
06:57
because at the time,
Japan was not yet building temples.
Japan was not yet building temples.
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因為當時，日本尚未開始蓋寺廟。
07:00
And this Korean artisan went on
to found a temple-building company.
to found a temple-building company.
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這位韓國工匠前往日本
設立了寺廟建築公司。
設立了寺廟建築公司。
07:07
Amazingly, his company, Kongō Gumi,
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令人驚訝的是，
他的公司 Kongō Gumi，
他的公司 Kongō Gumi，
07:10
was still around 1,480 years later.
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1480年後，依然存在。
07:15
In fact, it became the oldest
continuously operating company
continuously operating company
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實際上，它是世界上
持續經營最久的老公司。
07:19
in the world.
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07:21
So how is Kongō Gumi doing today?
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那 Kongō Gumi
目前的公司狀況如何呢？
目前的公司狀況如何呢？
07:26
Not too well, I'm afraid.
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恐怕不太好。
07:28
It borrowed very heavily
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它在日本泡沫經濟時，
貸款了很多錢投資在房地產上。
貸款了很多錢投資在房地產上。
07:29
during the bubble period
of the Japanese economy,
of the Japanese economy,
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07:32
to invest in real estate.
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07:34
And when the bubble burst,
it couldn't refinance its loans.
it couldn't refinance its loans.
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就在泡沫破滅後，
公司已經無法再融資，
公司已經無法再融資，
07:38
The company failed,
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所以公司倒了，
07:39
and it was taken over
by a major construction company.
by a major construction company.
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最後被一家主流公司接手管理。
07:44
Tragically, after 40 generations
of very careful stewardship
of very careful stewardship
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可悲的是，經過了 Kongō 家族
40世代的努力經營，
07:49
by the Kongō family,
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07:51
Kongō Gumi succumbed
to a spectacular lapse
to a spectacular lapse
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這家公司最後還是臣服於沒有採取
07:55
in the ability to apply
a principle of prudence.
a principle of prudence.
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精準化經營而宣告停止營業。
08:00
Speaking of company failures:
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談到公司倒閉：
08:03
we're all familiar
with the failure of Kodak,
with the failure of Kodak,
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大家對柯達應該都耳熟能詳，
08:06
the company that declared bankruptcy
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這家公司在
08:09
in January 2012.
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2012年一月宣布破產。
08:13
Much more interesting,
however, is the question:
however, is the question:
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然而，還有一個更有趣的問題：
08:17
Why did Fujifilm --
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為什麼富士軟片
08:19
same product, same pressures
from digital technology, same time --
from digital technology, same time --
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——同樣的產品、數位科技的壓力、
同一時期——
同一時期——
為什麼富士軟片得以
生存下來並發光發熱？
生存下來並發光發熱？
08:24
why was Fujifilm
able to survive and flourish?
able to survive and flourish?
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08:30
Fujifilm used its capabilities
in chemistry, material science and optics
in chemistry, material science and optics
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因為富士軟片懂得把它的
化工能力、材料科學及光學技術
化工能力、材料科學及光學技術
08:37
to diversify into a number of areas,
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運用在不同領域，
08:40
ranging from cosmetics to pharmaceuticals,
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從化妝品、藥品、
08:44
to medical systems to biomaterials.
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1986
醫療系統到生物材料。
08:46
Some of these diversification
attempts failed.
attempts failed.
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有些多樣性的嘗試失敗了。
08:49
But in aggregate,
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但總體而言，
08:51
it was able to adapt
its portfolio sufficiently
its portfolio sufficiently
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它還是能採取有效的資產配置，
08:55
to survive and flourish.
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來維持企業的生存與發展。
08:58
As the CEO, Mr. Komori, put it,
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就像其 CEO， Komori先生說的
09:01
the strategy succeeded
because it had "more pockets and drawers"
because it had "more pockets and drawers"
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他們策略成功的原因是
比對手有更多的＂口袋跟抽屜＂。
09:05
than the rivals.
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09:07
He meant, of course,
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當然，他的意思是，
09:08
that they were able to create
more options than the rivals.
more options than the rivals.
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他們比對手有更多的選擇空間。
09:13
Fujifilm survived because it applied
the principles of prudence,
the principles of prudence,
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富士軟片能生存的原因是，
它採用了精準、
它採用了精準、
09:17
diversity
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多樣化、
09:18
and adaptation.
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適應能力的準則。
09:21
A catastrophic factory fire,
like the one we see here,
like the one we see here,
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一場災難性的工廠大火，
如我們現在所看到的，
如我們現在所看到的，
09:25
completely wiped out, in one evening,
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3018
就在一個晚上完全燒毀，
09:28
the only plant which supplied Toyota
with valves for car-braking systems.
with valves for car-braking systems.
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這是唯一一家提供
豐田汽車煞車系統閥門的工廠。
豐田汽車煞車系統閥門的工廠。
09:36
The ultimate test of resilience.
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這是一場對抗壓能力的終極考驗。
09:40
Car production ground
to a screeching halt.
to a screeching halt.
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汽車產線完全被迫中止。
09:44
How was it, then, that Toyota
was able to recover car production?
was able to recover car production?
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但豐田汽車花了
多久的時間回復產能？
多久的時間回復產能？
09:50
Can you imagine how long it took?
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你們可以想像花了多久時間嗎？
09:52
Just five days.
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僅五天。
09:54
From having no braking valves
to complete recovery in five days.
to complete recovery in five days.
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從沒有剎車閥門到產能完全恢復
只花了五天的時間。
只花了五天的時間。
09:58
How was this possible?
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這怎麼辦到的？
10:00
Toyota managed its network of suppliers
in such a collaborative manner
in such a collaborative manner
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豐田快速整合了它的供應商網路，
以同舟共濟的態度，與供應商一起
10:06
that it could work very quickly
and smoothly with suppliers
and smoothly with suppliers
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快速流暢地重新規劃生產，
10:10
to repurpose production,
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10:13
fill the missing braking valve capacity
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填補掉煞車閥門被迫停產的漏洞，
10:15
and have car production come online again.
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讓汽車的生產再度上線。
10:20
Toyota applied the principles
of modularity of its supply network,
of modularity of its supply network,
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豐田汽車採用了
「供給網絡模塊化」原理、
「供給網絡模塊化」原理、
10:24
embeddedness in an integrated system
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相互結合系統中的
「鑲嵌」原理
「鑲嵌」原理
10:27
and the functional redundancy
to be able to repurpose, smoothly,
to be able to repurpose, smoothly,
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以及有效的冗餘設計
來達到順利重整現有產能的目標。
來達到順利重整現有產能的目標。
10:31
existing capacity.
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1420
10:34
Now fortunately, few companies
succumb to catastrophic fires.
succumb to catastrophic fires.
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很幸運的，如今僅有少數公司
無法度過火災的難關。
無法度過火災的難關。
10:39
But we do read in the newspaper
every day about companies
every day about companies
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但每天新聞還是看到不少公司
10:42
succumbing to the disruption
of technology.
of technology.
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3399
因顛覆性科技的破壞而瓦解。
10:46
How is it, then, that the consumer
optics giant Essilor
optics giant Essilor
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3922
然而消費性光學巨人，依視路公司
10:50
is able to avoid technology disruption,
and even profit from it?
and even profit from it?
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638558
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是如何避掉顛覆性科技的破壞
甚至還能獲利呢？
甚至還能獲利呢？
10:55
And yes, technology disruption
is not only a big deal
is not only a big deal
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3444
沒錯，顛覆性科技
不僅僅在軟體產業和
電子產業上意義重大。
電子產業上意義重大。
10:58
in software and electronics.
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2085
11:01
Essilor carefully scans
the competitive environment
the competitive environment
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3738
依視路仔細地在競爭環境中
審視潛在的顛覆性科技。
11:06
for potentially disruptive technologies.
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2252
11:09
It acquires those technologies very early,
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並將這些技術變貴或競爭對手掌握之前，
盡快地取得它們，
盡快地取得它們，
11:12
before they've become expensive
or competitors have mobilized around them,
or competitors have mobilized around them,
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3776
11:16
and it then develops
those technologies itself,
those technologies itself,
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2545
之後再發展該項技術，
11:19
even at the risk of failure
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1942
即使有失敗的風險
11:21
or the risk of self-disruption.
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2125
或是研究中斷的風險。
11:24
Essilor stays ahead of its game,
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2618
依視路過去四十年來
一直是同業中的佼佼者，
一直是同業中的佼佼者，
11:27
and has delivered spectacular performance
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675051
2006
11:29
for over 40 years,
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677081
1443
11:30
by using the principles
of prudence and adaptation.
of prudence and adaptation.
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4197
因為運用了精明和適應力準則
所以業績表現一直都不錯。
所以業績表現一直都不錯。
11:35
OK, if these principles are so powerful,
you might be thinking,
you might be thinking,
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好，如果這些準則這麼有效，
你可能會問，
你可能會問，
11:39
why are they not commonplace in business?
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2907
為什麼它們在企業裡
並不是那麼地常見？
並不是那麼地常見？
11:42
Why do we not use these words every day?
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2226
為什麼我們不每天使用這些準則？
11:45
Well, change has to first
start in the mind.
start in the mind.
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2327
沒錯，改變需要從你的頭腦開始。
11:47
If we think back to our pitch to Bob,
206
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2045
如果我們回想一下
對包柏做的投售報告，
對包柏做的投售報告，
11:50
in order to apply the principles
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2388
為了運用支撐人體免疫機制的
11:52
that underpin the miracle
of the human immune system,
of the human immune system,
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幾條法則，
11:55
we first need to think differently
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2404
我們首先需要換個角度思考
11:58
about business.
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企業的經營。
11:59
Now typically, when we think
about business,
about business,
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2707
基本上，當我們談論到企業經營，
12:02
we use what I call "mechanical thinking."
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2482
我們都常會陷入一種我稱之為
「機械式思考」的迷思。
「機械式思考」的迷思。
12:05
We set goals,
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1637
我們設定目標後，
12:07
we analyze problems,
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1539
會分析問題，
12:09
we construct and we adhere to plans,
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2327
擬定計畫並緊盯著計畫，
12:11
and more than anything else,
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1343
最重要的是
12:12
we stress efficiency
and short-term performance.
and short-term performance.
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3011
我們卻只著重在效率和短期表現
12:16
Now, don't get me wrong --
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1261
千萬別誤會——
12:17
this is a splendidly practical
and effective way
and effective way
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725618
3114
在相對穩定的環境中，對解決相對簡單的挑戰上，
這是一個相當實用而且有效的方法，
這是一個相當實用而且有效的方法，
12:20
of addressing relatively simple challenges
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2440
12:23
in relatively stable environments.
221
731220
1990
12:26
It's the way that Bob -- and probably
many of us, myself included --
many of us, myself included --
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3462
這是包柏，——還有包括我在內的
我們中許多人——
我們中許多人——
12:29
process most business problems
we're faced with every day.
we're faced with every day.
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處理我們每天面臨的大多數
商業問題的辦法
商業問題的辦法
12:33
In fact, it was a pretty good
mental model for business --
mental model for business --
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3638
實際上，這曾是一個很好的
商業思考模式
商業思考模式
12:37
overall --
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1521
總的來說——
12:38
until about the mid-1980s,
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2028
這個模式直到1980年代中期
還都很好用，
還都很好用，
12:40
when the conjunction of globalization
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3364
但當全球化的世代來臨、
12:44
and a revolution in technology
and telecommunications
and telecommunications
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2523
革命性科技與遠端通訊
12:46
made business far more
dynamic and unpredictable.
dynamic and unpredictable.
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2438
造成企業的經營，變化越來越快，
越來越不可預測時，
越來越不可預測時，
12:49
But what about those more dynamic
and unpredictable situations
and unpredictable situations
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當我們現在面臨更具變化和
不可預測性的情況時
不可預測性的情況時
12:52
that we now increasingly face?
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2091
該怎麼應對呢？
12:55
I think in addition
to the mechanical thinking,
to the mechanical thinking,
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2415
我認為除了機械式思考外
12:58
we now need to master the art
of biological thinking,
of biological thinking,
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3693
現在我們得掌握生物思考的藝術，
13:02
as embodied by our six principles.
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1961
就像我們的六條準則所傳達的一樣。
13:05
In other words, we need to think
more modestly and subtly
more modestly and subtly
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3653
換句話說，我們需要更
審慎、敏感地思考，
審慎、敏感地思考，
13:08
about when and how
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2296
我們要何時、如何
13:11
we can shape, rather than control,
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2772
行塑這些不可測且複雜的情況，
而不是控制它。
而不是控制它。
13:14
unpredictable and complex situations.
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3210
13:19
It's a little like the difference
between throwing a ball
between throwing a ball
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3110
這有點像扔一顆球
和放飛一隻鳥的區別，
13:23
and releasing a bird.
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1305
13:25
The ball would head in a straight line,
241
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1943
球會直線往前飛行，
13:27
probably towards the intended target,
242
795652
2218
還可能擊中你想打到的目標，
13:29
and the bird certainly would not.
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3107
但鳥顯然不能。
13:35
So what do you think?
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1594
所以，你們怎麼想呢？
13:37
Sounds a little impractical,
a little theoretical, perhaps?
a little theoretical, perhaps?
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3287
是不是聽起來有點不實際，
又有點純理論化了，是嗎？
又有點純理論化了，是嗎？
13:41
Not at all.
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1157
一點也不。
13:43
Every small entrepreneurial company
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2381
每一個小型創業公司的想法與行動，
13:47
naturally thinks and acts biologically.
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2844
天生就會有生物性的特質。
13:50
Why?
249
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1151
為什麼？
因為它們缺少
13:51
Because it lacks the resources
to shape its environment
to shape its environment
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2630
塑造周圍環境條件的資源。
13:54
through brute force.
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1294
13:55
It lacks the scale to buffer change,
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2639
它沒有足夠可以迎接改變的規模，
13:59
and it's constantly thinking
about the tough odds
about the tough odds
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3173
且不斷地在思考
如何讓初創公司度過
這些艱困、零散的挑戰。
這些艱困、零散的挑戰。
14:02
for a start-up to survive.
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2126
14:06
Now, the irony is, of course,
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834637
1398
現在，諷刺的是，當然
14:08
that every large company started off
as a small, entrepreneurial company.
as a small, entrepreneurial company.
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3577
每一個大型公司都是由
小型企業開始。
小型企業開始。
14:11
But along the way somewhere,
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1571
但是在發展的某一階段
14:13
many have lost this ability
to think and act biologically.
to think and act biologically.
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841255
4091
許多公司丟失了生物化思考
和行動的能力。
和行動的能力。
14:18
They need to rejuvenate
their ability to think biologically
their ability to think biologically
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3796
他們需要重拾生物化思考的能力
14:23
in order to survive and thrive
in today's environment.
in today's environment.
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3617
以便在今日的環境中生存並繁榮。
14:28
So let's not just think
about short-term performance.
about short-term performance.
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讓我們不要再只考慮短期表現吧
14:32
Every company I know spends plenty of time
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2876
我所知道的每一個公司
都花大量的時間
都花大量的時間
14:34
thinking about the central
question of strategy:
question of strategy:
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2397
思考他們的戰略核心：
14:37
How good is our competitive game?
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1899
我們的競爭力還有多少榮景？
14:39
In addition, let's also consider
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2342
除此之外，為什麼不考慮
14:42
the second, more biological
and equally important question:
and equally important question:
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4061
第二個，更為生物化
而且同等重要的問題：
而且同等重要的問題：
14:46
How long will that game last?
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2406
這場遊戲還能持續多久？
14:49
Thank you very much.
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1181
謝謝
14:50
(Applause)
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3170
（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Martin Reeves - StrategistBCG's Martin Reeves consults on strategy to global enterprises across a range of industries.
Why you should listen
Martin Reeves is the Director of the BCG Henderson Institute, BCG's think tank for new ideas in strategy and management, and a Senior Partner based in New York City.
Reeves has been with the firm for 26 years and focuses on strategy, dividing his time between the Institute and client strategy work across sectors. He is author of a new book on strategy, Your Strategy Needs a Strategy, which deals with choosing and executing the right approach in today's complex and dynamic business environment, as well as numerous articles in Harvard Business Review and other publications.
Martin Reeves | Speaker | TED.com