ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Paul Moller - Inventor
With a team of engineers, Paul Moller works on the Skycar, a combination car and jet, as well as the M200, a saucer-shaped hovering car. He also develops next-generation engines to power these and other amazing vehicles.

Why you should listen

Paul Moller is the president, CEO and chair of Moller International, a company devoted to engineering the combination of automobile and jet known as the Moller Skycar. His company also works on the M200, a low-flying disc, or volantor, that may go into production later in 2009. (As cool as it looks, the M200 has serious applications as a rescue vehicle.) A partner company, Freedom Motors, builds the Rotapower engine.

Moller developed the Aeronautical Engineering program at UC Davis while a professor there from 1963 to 1975. In 1972 he founded SuperTrapp Industries, and also led the group that developed the Davis Research Park Complex between 1975 and 1983. He's been working on VTOL (vertical takeoff and landing) personal vehicles since the late 1960s.

More profile about the speaker
Paul Moller | Speaker | TED.com
TED2004

Paul Moller: My dream of a flying car

保羅.穆勒(Paul Moller) 發明飛天車

Filmed:
477,921 views

Paul Moller 談論未來的個人空中運輸 - 結合汽車和飛行器來提供我們真正無道路化的自由旅程。他展示了兩件他進行中的項目:Moller 飛天車(噴射機+汽車)以及便利乘客使用的飛碟。
- Inventor
With a team of engineers, Paul Moller works on the Skycar, a combination car and jet, as well as the M200, a saucer-shaped hovering car. He also develops next-generation engines to power these and other amazing vehicles. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:13
Many許多 of you could ask the question, you know,
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你知道,許多人會問這個問題,
00:15
why is a flying飛行 car汽車, or maybe more accurately準確,
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為什麼飛天車,或用更正確的講法,
00:18
a roadable上路 aircraft飛機, possible可能 at this time?
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一個可以旋轉的飛行器,在現在是可行的?
00:22
A number of years年份 ago,
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許多年以前,
00:24
Mr先生. Ford predicted預料到的 that flying飛行 cars汽車
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亨利.福特預測飛天車
00:26
of some form形成 would be available可得到.
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會以某種型態出現在世界上。
00:28
Now, 60 years年份 later後來,
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而六十年後的今天,
00:30
I'm here to tell you why it's possible可能.
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我在這裡告訴你,為何它是可行的。
00:32
When I was about five years年份 old,
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在我五歲的時候,
00:34
not very much -- about a year after
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時間差不多大概是
00:36
Mr先生. Ford made製作 his predictions預測,
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福特發表他的預測之後一年,
00:38
I was living活的 in a rural鄉村 part部分 of Canada加拿大,
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我當時住在加拿大的一個農村,
00:41
on the side of a mountain in a very isolated孤立 area.
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位在一個很偏僻的山腳下。
00:46
Getting入門 to school學校, for a kid孩子 that was actually其實 pretty漂亮 short for his age年齡,
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對一個在同年紀裡身材較矮小的小孩而言,
00:50
through通過 the Canadian加拿大 winter冬季, was not a pleasant愉快 experience經驗.
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在加拿大的冬天要去上學並不是件開心的經歷。
00:53
It was a trying and scary害怕 thing
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對那麼小的小孩而言
00:57
for a young年輕 kid孩子 to be going through通過.
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那是又難受又可怕的事情。
01:00
At the end結束 of my first year in school學校, in the summer夏季 of that year,
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那年夏天,當我在學校的第一年結束時,
01:05
I discovered發現 a couple一對 hummingbirds蜂鳥
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我發現我家附近的一個倉庫裡,
01:08
that were caught抓住 in a shed near my home.
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發現了幾隻被困住的蜂鳥。
01:10
They'd他們會 worn磨損的 themselves他們自己 out,
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它們不停地衝撞著玻璃,
01:12
beating跳動 themselves他們自己 against反對 the window窗口,
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並把體力都消耗掉了,
01:14
and, well, they were easy簡單 to capture捕獲.
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所以我很容易就抓住它們了。
01:16
I took them outside and as I let them go, that split分裂 second第二, even though雖然 they were very tired,
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當我把它們帶到外面要放它們走的瞬間,它們會先在空中盤旋一下,
01:20
that second第二 I let them go they hovered徘徊 for a second第二,
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即使它們已經很累了,
01:22
then zipped壓縮 off into the distance距離.
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然後一瞬間就飛到很遠的地方了。
01:24
I thought, what a great way to get to school學校.
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我心想,這可真是上學的好方法。
01:26
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
01:29
For a kid孩子 at that age年齡, this was like infinite無窮 speed速度, disappearing消失,
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對這年紀的小孩來說,這種消失的速度真是不可思議的快啊,
01:33
and I was very inspired啟發 by that.
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給我有相當大的激勵。
01:35
And so the next下一個 -- over the next下一個
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於是在六十年之後,
01:37
six decades幾十年, believe it or not,
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信不信由你,
01:39
I've built內置 a number of aircraft飛機,
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我為了要製造出能夠像蜂鳥飛行的東西,
01:42
with the goal目標 of creating創建 something that could do for you, or me,
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讓它搭載著人們,
01:46
what the hummingbird蜂鳥 does,
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給予人們更多的彈性,
01:48
and give you that flexibility靈活性.
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而製造了許多的飛行器。
01:51
I've called this vehicle車輛, generically一般, a volantorvolantor,
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我把這部汽車,一般稱為直昇機,取名為 Volantor(飛行者),
01:55
after the Latin拉丁 word "volant展翅," meaning含義,
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源自於拉丁文中 "volant(飛行)" 這個字的意義,
01:57
to fly in a light, nimble敏捷 manner方式.
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以期能夠輕盈、靈巧的飛行。
02:00
Volantor-likeVolantor樣 helicopter直升機, perhaps也許.
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也許算是一種直昇機型態的飛行器。
02:02
The FAAFAA, the controlling控制 body身體 above以上 all,
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聯邦航空總署(FAA),那個管控在天上飛行的機構,
02:05
calls電話 it a "powered動力 lift電梯 aircraft飛機."
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稱它為 "動力升降飛行器"。
02:08
And they've他們已經 actually其實 issued發行 a pilot's飛行員 license執照 --
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並且他們特別為了這台飛行器
02:11
a powerliftpowerlift pilot's飛行員 license執照 -- for this type類型 of aircraft飛機.
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而核發了一張飛行執照 - 一種動力升降機的飛行執照。
02:15
It's closer接近 than you think. It's kind of remarkable卓越 when you consider考慮 that
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如你所想的,這相當的引人注目,
02:18
there are no operational操作 powered動力 lift電梯 aircraft飛機.
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在這個沒有人相信有動力升降飛行器的年代。
02:21
So for once一旦, perhaps也許, the government政府 is ahead of itself本身.
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也許是頭一次,政府進度超前了。
02:25
The press calls電話 my particular特定 volantorvolantor a "Skycar空中汽車."
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記者把我這獨特飛行器取名為"Skycar(飛天車)"。
02:30
This is a little bit earlier version of it,
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這是一台比較早期的版本,
02:33
that's why it's given特定 the X designation指定,
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所以被稱為 X。
02:35
but it's a four-passenger四座 aircraft飛機
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但它是台可以當載四人的飛行器 -
02:37
that could take off vertically垂直, like a helicopter直升機 --
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可以垂直升降,就像直昇機一樣,
02:39
therefore因此 it doesn't need an airfield機場.
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因此它不需要跑道。
02:41
On the ground地面, it's powered動力 electrically.
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在地上的時候,它是靠電力在運作。
02:45
It's actually其實 classified分類 as a motorcycle摩托車
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事實上它被歸類於摩托車,
02:48
because of the three wheels車輪, which哪一個 is a great asset財富
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因為它有三個輪子,這可是很有用的,
02:50
because it allows允許 you, theoretically理論上, to use this on the highways公路
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因為理論上它可以讓你在許多州的高速公路上奔馳,
02:52
in most states狀態, and actually其實 in all cities城市.
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事實上在所有的城市都可以。
02:55
So that's an asset財富 because if you've got to deal合同 with the crash緊急 protection保護 issues問題
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它的另一項好處是,如果你連開車都會遇到車禍的話,
02:58
of the automobile汽車, forget忘記 it -- you're never going to fly it.
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那別作夢吧,你不可能開著它飛的。
03:02
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
03:07
One could say that a helicopter直升機
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你可以說直昇機的飛行方式,
03:09
does pretty漂亮 much what the hummingbird蜂鳥 does,
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很類似蜂鳥的行為模式,
03:12
and gets得到 around in much the same相同 way, and it's true真正,
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移動方式幾乎是一樣的,這並沒有錯,
03:14
but a helicopter直升機 is a very complex複雜 device設備.
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但是直昇機的結構很複雜。
03:18
It's expensive昂貴 --
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而且它很貴,
03:20
so expensive昂貴 that very few少數 people could own擁有 or use it.
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只有極少數人負擔得起。
03:24
It's often經常 been described描述 because of its fragile脆弱 nature性質 and its complexity複雜,
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由於它天性很脆弱,以及過於複雜,
03:28
as a series系列 of parts部分 -- a large number of parts部分 --
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常被人形容它像是一組零件 - 一大群零件 -
03:30
flying飛行 in formation編隊.
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在空中排列出隊形飛行著。
03:32
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
03:37
Another另一個 difference區別, and I have to describe描述 this,
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另一個差異在於,我必須說明一下,
03:39
because it's very personal個人,
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因為它非常個人化,
03:41
another另一個 great difference區別 between之間 the helicopter直升機
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直昇機與飛行者之間
03:43
and the volantorvolantor --
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有著另一項巨大差異 -
03:45
in my case案件 the Skycar空中汽車 volantorvolantor --
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對我來說,飛天車-飛行者,
03:47
is the experience經驗 that I've had
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以我搭乘過這兩種(直昇機、飛天車)
03:49
in flying飛行 both of those.
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的經歷而言。
03:51
In a helicopter直升機 you feel -- and it's still a remarkable卓越 sensation感覺 --
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在直昇機上你會有一種很特殊的感覺,
03:54
you feel like you're being存在 hauled拖拉 up from above以上
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你覺得好像是被大型吊車
03:57
by a vibrating振動 crane起重機.
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從上面拉起來的感覺。
03:59
When you get in the Skycar空中汽車 -- and I can tell you,
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當你乘坐飛天車時,我可以告訴你,
04:01
there's only one other person that's flown飛行 it, but he had the same相同 sensation感覺 --
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還有另一個人也乘坐過它飛行,但他也有和我一樣的感覺 -
04:04
you really feel like you're being存在 lifted取消 up
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你覺得你好像是被一張神奇魔毯
04:06
by a magic魔法 carpet地毯,
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從下面將你舉起來一般,
04:09
without any vibration振動 whatsoever任何. The sensation感覺 is unbelievable難以置信的.
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而不是靠任何動力機具。那是一種不可思議的感覺。
04:12
And it's been a great motivator動力.
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對我來說這是一種很大的動力。
04:14
I only get to fly this vehicle車輛 occasionally偶爾,
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只有在我能說服的股東們
04:17
and only when I can persuade說服 my stockholders股東
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讓我去開這台車的時候,
04:19
to let me do so,
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我才能偶爾去駕駛它飛行。
04:21
but it's still one of those wonderful精彩 experiences經驗
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但在那段時間裡,這件事仍然是
04:24
that reward獎勵 you for all that time.
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能夠鼓舞你的美好經驗之一.
04:30
What we really need is something to replace更換 the automobile汽車
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我們真正需要的,是能夠取代汽車
04:33
for those 50-plus-加 mile英里 trips旅行.
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進行超過五十英哩旅程的東西。
04:36
Very few少數 people realize實現 that 50 mile-plus英里加 trips旅行
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很少人知道這些超過五十英哩的旅程
04:38
make up 85 percent百分 of the miles英里 traveled旅行 in America美國.
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佔美國所有旅程中的百分之八十五。
04:41
If we can get rid擺脫 of that,
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如果我們能夠將這部分移除,
04:43
then the highways公路 will now be useful有用 to you,
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那麼高速公路就會變得很有效率,
04:46
as contrasted對比 by what's happening事件
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就不會像現在世界各地
04:48
in many許多 parts部分 of the world世界 today今天.
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到處都有交通壅塞問題。
04:52
On this next下一個 slide滑動, is an interesting有趣 history歷史
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接下來這張是在說
04:56
of what we really have seen看到 in infrastructure基礎設施,
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我們對於一些必要設施的計畫,
05:00
because whether是否 I give you a perfect完善 Skycar空中汽車,
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因為即使我給你一台完美的飛天車,
05:03
the perfect完善 vehicle車輛 for use, it's going to have very little value to you
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一台完美的車子讓你使用, 對你幫助並不大
05:06
unless除非 you've got a system系統 to use it in.
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除非你有完整的系統來使用它。
05:08
I'm sure any of you have asked the question,
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我相信會有人問,
05:10
yeah, are there great things up there -- what am I going to do, get up there?
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是啊,會有什麼很棒的東西嗎?我能得到什麼呢?
05:12
It's bad enough足夠 on a highway高速公路, what's it going to be like to be in the air空氣?
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高速公路就已經夠糟了,上了天空更是難以想像吧?
05:15
This world世界 that you're going to be talking about tomorrow明天
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你所討論的未來
05:18
is going to be completely全然 integrated集成. You're not going to be a pilot飛行員,
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將會有整合好的系統。你不用擔任駕駛,
05:20
you're going to be a passenger乘客.
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你只要當乘客就好了。
05:22
And it's the infrastructure基礎設施 that really determines確定 whether是否 this process處理 goes forward前鋒.
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這個設施將會決定這整個計畫是否能夠施行。
05:25
I can tell you, technically技術上 we can build建立 SkycarsSkycars --
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我可以告訴你,我們有技術去製造飛天車 -
05:27
my God, we went to the moon月亮!
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老天,我們都已經登上月球了!
05:29
The technology技術 there was much more difficult than what I'm dealing交易 with here.
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上月球需要的技術可比製造飛天車難多了。
05:32
But we have to have these priority優先 changes變化,
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但是我們需要先有一些改變,
05:34
we have to have infrastructure基礎設施 to go with this.
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我們需要一些設施來配合整個計畫。
05:36
Historically歷史 you see that we got around
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在歷史紀錄上
05:38
200 years年份 ago by canals運河,
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你知道運河人們被使用了兩百多年,
05:40
and as that system系統 disappeared消失, were replaced更換 by railroads鐵路.
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隨之,我們使用鐵路來取代運河。
05:43
As that disappeared消失 we came來了 in with highways公路.
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接下來我們用高速公路取代一般鐵路。
05:45
But if you look at that top最佳 corner -- the highway高速公路 system系統 --
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但你看看上面角落這裡 - 高速公路系統 -
05:48
you see where we are today今天. Highways公路 are no longer being存在 built內置,
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你知道現況是什麼。我們不再繼續蓋高速公路了,
05:52
and that's a fact事實. You won't慣於 see any additional額外 highways公路
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這就是事實。未來十年內,
05:55
in the next下一個 10 years年份.
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你不會看見任何新的高速公路。
05:57
However然而, the next下一個 10 years年份, if like the last 10 years年份,
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但在未來的十年,如果和過去十年一樣的話,
05:59
we're going to see 30 percent百分 more traffic交通.
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我們會再增加百分之三十的交通量。
06:02
And where is that going to lead you to?
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這會導致我們使用什麼呢?
06:04
So the issue問題 then, I've often經常 asked, is
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所以我常常問我自己,
06:06
when is it going to happen發生?
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什麼時候才會有改變?
06:09
When are we going to be able能夠 to have these vehicles汽車?
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我們何時才能有這些飛天車呢?
06:12
And of course課程, if you ask me, I'm going to give you a really optimistic樂觀 view視圖.
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當然,如果你問我,我會給你很樂觀的看法。
06:15
After all, I've been spending開支 60 years年份 here believing相信 it's going to happen發生 tomorrow明天.
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畢竟我已經花了六十年,相信它未來一定會成真。
06:18
So, I'm not going to quote引用 myself on this.
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所以我不自己來說這些。
06:21
I'd prefer比較喜歡 to quote引用 someone有人 else其他,
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我比較想引用別人的話來說明,
06:23
who testified作證 with me before Congress國會,
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他和我一起證實了飛天車的存在給國會議員看,
06:25
and in his position位置 as head of NASANASA
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當時他正擔任太空總署(NASA)的首長,
06:29
put forward前鋒 this particular特定 vision視力
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曾經對於這台飛天車的未來
06:31
of the future未來 of this type類型 of aircraft飛機.
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提出過這個特別的看法。
06:35
Now I would argue爭論, actually其實, if you look at the fact事實 that on the highways公路 today今天,
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這邊我要修正一下,事實上,如果你看現在的高速公路,
06:38
you're only averaging平均 about 30 miles英里 per hour小時 --
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依據交通部的資料,
06:41
on average平均, according根據 to the DOT --
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每小時的平均速度大概只有30英哩,
06:44
the Skycar空中汽車 travels旅行 at over 300 miles英里 an hour小時,
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飛天車的速度每小時可以超過300英哩,
06:46
up to 25,000 feet.
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而且是在兩萬五千英呎的空中。
06:49
And so, in effect影響, you could see perhaps也許 a tenfold十倍 increase增加
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所以在實際效果上,你會發現
06:51
in the ability能力 to get around
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當考慮到速度時,
06:54
as far as speed速度 is concerned關心.
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增加的幅度將近十倍。
07:01
Unbeknownst不知情 to many許多 of you,
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大部分的人都不知道,
07:04
the highway高速公路 in the sky天空 that I'm talking about here
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我現在所提的空中交通這件事,
07:06
has been under construction施工 for 10 years年份.
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已經建構了約十年。
07:09
It makes品牌 use of the GPS全球定位系統 -- you're familiar with GPS全球定位系統 in your automobile汽車,
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它使用了GPS - 就是在你車上那個你熟悉的 GPS,
07:12
but you may可能 not be familiar with the fact事實 that there's a GPS全球定位系統 U.S.,
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但你可能不知道 GPS 還有分美國的 GPS,
07:15
there's a Russian俄語 GPS全球定位系統,
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俄國的 GPS,
07:17
and there's a new GPS全球定位系統 system系統
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還有一個新的
07:19
going to Europe歐洲, called Galileo伽利略.
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在歐洲使用的 GPS 系統叫做 Galileo(伽利略)。
07:21
With those three systems系統,
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藉由這三套系統,
07:23
you have what is always necessary必要 --
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你就有了某種程度上
07:25
a level水平 of redundancy冗餘 that says,
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所必要的備用系統﹔
07:27
if one system系統 fails失敗, you'll你會 still have a way
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當某個系統失去作用時,你還能夠確認
07:29
to make sure that you're being存在 controlled受控.
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一切都在掌握之中。
07:31
Because if you're in this world世界, where computers電腦 are controlling控制 what you're doing,
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因為你生活在這個依靠電腦控制一切的世界中,
07:34
it's going to be very critical危急 that something can't fail失敗 on you.
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想要不遇到電腦當機實在是很困難的事啊。
07:39
How would a trip in a Skycar空中汽車 work?
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要如何利用飛天車完成一趟旅程呢?
07:41
Well, you can't right now
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嗯,你現在不可能直接從你家起飛,
07:43
take off from your home because it's too noisy嘈雜.
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因為實在太吵了。
07:46
I mean to be able能夠 to take off from your home, you'd have to be extremely非常 quiet安靜.
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如果要從你家起飛的話,那必須要非常安靜才行。
07:49
But it's still fairly相當 quiet安靜.
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不過它已經算是很安靜了。
07:51
You'd motor發動機, electrically, to a vertiportvertiport,
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你可以先駕駛到一個飛天車起降場,
07:55
which哪一個 may可能 be a few少數 blocks, maybe even a few少數 miles英里 away.
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也許是幾個路口遠,或甚至幾英哩遠。
07:57
This is clearly明確地, as I said earlier, a roadable上路 aircraft飛機,
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如我先前所說,當你搭乘飛天車時,
08:00
and you're not going to spend that much time on the road.
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你不需要花太多時間在道路上。
08:02
After all, if you can fly like that,
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畢竟,如果你可以讓它飛,
08:04
why are you going to drive駕駛 around on a highway高速公路?
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你又何必在高速公路上跑?
08:06
Go to a local本地 vertiportvertiport,
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到了當地的飛天車起降場後,
08:08
plug插頭 in your destination目的地,
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輸入你的目的地,
08:11
delivered交付 almost幾乎 like a passenger乘客.
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然後就當一個乘客被送到目的地。
08:15
You can play computer電腦 games遊戲, you can sleep睡覺, you can read on the way.
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在路上你可以玩電動玩具、可以睡覺也可以看書。
08:19
This is the world世界 -- there won't慣於 be you as a pilot飛行員. And I know the pilots飛行員 in the audience聽眾 aren't going to like that --
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在這構想中,飛行員是過去式了。我知道聽眾裡的飛行員可能會不高興,
08:22
and I've had a lot of bad feedback反饋
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我也收到許多想要在天空中飛行
08:24
from people who want to be up there, flying飛行 around
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感受遨遊天際的人們
08:26
and experiencing經歷 that.
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給我的不好回應。
08:29
And of course課程, I suppose假設 like recreational休閒 parks公園 you can still do that.
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當然,我想你還是可以在遊樂場中開飛天車。
08:32
But the vehicle車輛 itself本身 is going to be a very, very controlled受控 environment環境.
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不過這台車的控制介面將會有所限制。
08:36
Or it's going to have no use to you as a person who might威力 use such這樣 a system系統.
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否則對於想用這系統的人而言,它可能會變成毫無用處。
08:40
We flew the first vehicle車輛 for the international國際 press
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在1965年,我剛開始這一切時,
08:43
in 1965, when I really got it started開始.
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我們曾經飛行第一架飛天車給國際記者看過。
08:45
I was a professor教授 at the U.C. Davis戴維斯 System系統,
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我當時是UC Davis系統公司的教授,
08:47
and I got a lot of excitement激動 around this,
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對於這個我是相當興奮的,
08:49
and I was able能夠 to fund基金 the initiation引發 of the program程序 back in that time.
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而那時我因此替這個計畫募集到足夠的款項。
08:53
And then through通過 the various各個 years年份
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過了幾年之後,
08:55
we invented發明 various各個 vehicles汽車.
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我們發明了各種飛天車。
08:57
Actually其實 the critical危急 point was in 1989,
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事實上關鍵點在1989年,
09:00
when we demonstrated證明 the stability穩定性 of this vehicle車輛 --
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當時我們展示這台飛天車的的穩定性 -
09:02
how completely全然 stable穩定 it was in all circumstances情況,
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它不論是任何狀況下都很穩定,
09:05
which哪一個 is of course課程 very critical危急.
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這是相當重要的。
09:07
Still not a practical實際的 vehicle車輛 during all of this,
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那時我們還沒研發出真正可以投入應用的車型,
09:10
but moving移動 in the right direction方向, we believe.
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不過我們相信我們的方向是對的。
09:14
Finally最後, in the early part部分 of --
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終於,在最近幾年 -
09:17
or actually其實 the middle中間 of 2002,
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正確來說是 2002 年中期,
09:21
we flew the 400 -- M400, which哪一個 was the four-passenger四座 vehicle車輛.
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我們讓 M400 飛了起來,這是一台四人座的飛天車。
09:25
In this case案件 here, we're flying飛行 it remotely遠程, as we always did at the beginning開始.
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我們使用遙控的方式駕駛它,如同我們一開始所做的一樣。
09:29
And we had very small power功率 plants植物 in it at this time.
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這次我們使用了很小的發電機。
09:32
We are now installing安裝 larger powerplants發電廠,
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我們現在改裝幾個較大的發電機,
09:34
which哪一個 will make it possible可能 for me to get back on board.
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這樣才能讓我重新坐到車上。
09:36
A vertical-takeoff垂直起飛 aircraft飛機
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這種垂直起降的飛行器
09:38
is not the safest最安全 vehicle車輛 during the test測試 flight飛行 program程序.
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在試飛期間並不是一個最安全的飛天車。
09:42
There's an old adage諺語 that applied應用的 for the years年份
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在 1950 到 1970 年這段期間,
09:45
between之間 1950s and 1970s,
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許多製造飛機的公司
09:48
when every一切 aeronautical航空 company公司
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都在努力發展垂直起降飛行器,
09:50
was working加工 on vertical-takeoff垂直起飛 aircraft飛機.
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當時有一句格言。
09:54
A vertical-takeoff垂直起飛 aircraft飛機
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一台垂直身降的飛行器
09:56
needs需求 an artificial人造 stabilization穩定 system系統 --
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需要一個人造的平衡系統 -
09:58
that's essential必要.
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這是絕對必要的。
10:00
At least最小 for the hover徘徊,
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至少對於盤旋
10:02
and the low-speed低速 flight飛行.
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和低速飛行是如此。
10:06
If that single-stability單穩定性 system系統,
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如果那唯一的平衡系統
10:08
that brain that flies蒼蠅 that aircraft飛機, fails失敗, or if the engine發動機 fails失敗,
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駕駛飛天車的大腦當機了,或是引擎故障了,
10:12
that vehicle車輛 crashes崩潰. There is no option選項 to that.
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這台飛天車就會墜毀。沒有其他選擇。
10:15
And the adage諺語 that I'm referring to,
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我剛提到的格言,
10:17
that applied應用的 at that time,
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就是用在這種時候,
10:19
was that nothing comes down faster更快
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是說沒有東西下降的速度
10:21
than a VTOL垂直起降 aircraft飛機 upside上邊 down.
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可以比得上飛天車倒栽蔥的時候還快。
10:23
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
10:25
That's a macabre可怕 comment評論 because we lost丟失 a lot of pilots飛行員.
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這是個可怕的說法,因為我們已經失去了許多的飛行員。
10:28
In fact事實, the aircraft飛機 companies公司 gave up on
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事實上這幾年來,
10:30
vertical-takeoff垂直起飛 aircraft飛機
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有許多製造飛機的公司,
10:32
more or less for a number of years年份.
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放棄製造垂直升降的飛行器。
10:34
And there's really only one operational操作 aircraft飛機 in the world世界 today今天
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現今世界上只有唯一一架算得上實用的飛行器,
10:37
that's a vertical-takeoff垂直起飛 aircraft飛機 -- as distinct不同 from a helicopter直升機 --
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這是台垂直升降的飛行器 - 不同於直昇機 -
10:39
and that's the Hawker小販 Harrier jump jet噴射.
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那就是鷹式戰鬥噴射機。
10:47
A vertical-takeoff垂直起飛 aircraft飛機,
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一架垂直升降飛行器,
10:49
like the hummingbird蜂鳥,
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就像蜂鳥一樣,
10:51
has a very high metabolism代謝,
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有著快速的新陳代謝系統,
10:53
which哪一個 means手段 it requires要求 a lot of energy能源.
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意思是說它會消耗大量能量。
10:56
Getting入門 that energy能源 is very, very difficult. It all comes down
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要得到這種能量很不容易。問題在於那顆發電機
10:59
to that power功率 plant -- how to get a large amount of power功率 in a small package.
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- 要怎麼用較小的尺寸獲得較大的能量。
11:05
Fortunately幸好, Dr博士. Felix費利克斯 Wankel汪克爾
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幸好,Felix Wankel 博士
11:07
invented發明 the rotary旋轉 engine發動機.
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發明了轉子引擎。
11:10
A very unique獨特 engine發動機 -- it's round回合,
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一種很獨特的引擎 - 它是圓的,
11:12
it's small, it's vibration-free無振動.
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它很小,幾乎不太會震動。
11:15
It fits適合 exactly究竟 where we need to fit適合 it,
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剛好符合我們所需的尺寸,
11:17
right in the center中央 of the hubs集線器 of the ducts管道 in the system系統 --
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可以裝置在系統的正中心 -
11:20
very critical危急. In fact事實 that engine發動機 --
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很不容易做到。事實上這顆引擎 -
11:22
for those who are into the automobile汽車 --
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對於汽車愛好者來說
11:24
know that it recently最近 is applied應用的 to the RXRX8 --
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應該很熟悉,它就是
11:26
the Mazda馬自達.
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馬自達 RX-8 所使用的引擎。
11:28
And that sportscar跑車 won韓元 Sports體育 Car汽車 of the Year.
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那台跑車贏得了當年的車賽。
11:32
Wonderful精彩 engine發動機.
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那是很棒的引擎。
11:34
In that application應用, it generates生成 one horsepower馬力 per pound,
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使用時,每磅可以產生一匹馬力,
11:36
which哪一個 is twice兩次 as good as your car汽車 engine發動機 today今天,
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已經比現在的車子好上兩倍,
11:39
but only half of what we need.
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但只有我們需要的一半。
11:41
My company公司 has spent花費 35 years年份
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我們公司花了35年
11:44
and many許多 millions百萬 of dollars美元 taking服用 that rotary旋轉 engine發動機,
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以及幾百萬美金去改良這個轉子引擎,
11:47
which哪一個 was invented發明 in the late晚了 '50s, and getting得到 it to the point that we get
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事實上它早在50年代末期就出現了,
11:50
over two horsepower馬力 per pound, reliably可靠, and critical危急.
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最後終於能穩定的達到每磅兩匹馬力以上。
11:53
We actually其實 get 175 horsepower馬力
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事實上我們只用一立方英呎的空間
11:56
into one cubic立方體 foot腳丫子.
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就可以得到175匹馬力。
11:59
We have eight engines引擎 in this vehicle車輛.
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我們在這台飛天車上裝了八顆引擎。
12:01
We have four computers電腦. We have two parachutes降落傘.
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我們有四部電腦還有兩具降落傘。
12:05
Redundancy冗餘 is the critical危急 issue問題 here.
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備用系統在這兒是很重要的。
12:07
If you want to stay alive you've got to have backups備份.
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如果你想活下去,你就要準備一些備用品。
12:09
And we have actually其實 flown飛行 this vehicle車輛 and lost丟失 an engine發動機,
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我們過去試飛這台飛天車時,確實曾發生過一具引擎故障,
12:11
and continued繼續 to hover徘徊.
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而且還能維持盤旋狀態。
12:13
The computers電腦 back up each other. There's a voting表決 system系統 --
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這些電腦互為備用系統。這兒有個投票系統 --
12:16
if one computer電腦 is not agreeing同意 with the other three,
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如果某台電腦的判斷被另外三台否決,
12:20
it's kicked out of the system系統.
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它就會被踢出這個系統。
12:21
And then you have three -- you still have the triple三倍 redundancy冗餘.
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於是你剩下三台電腦 -- 你還有三個備用系統。
12:24
If one of those fails失敗, you still have a second第二 chance機會.
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如果這三台其中一台故障,你還有第二個逃生的機會。
12:27
If you stick around, then good luck運氣.
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如果你還不回航,那就多保重了。
12:29
There won't慣於 be a third第三 chance機會.
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不會有第三次機會的。
12:33
The parachutes降落傘 are there -- hopefully希望,
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上面還有降落傘,
12:35
more for psychological心理 than real真實 reasons原因, but
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希望只是求心安而不是真的會用到,
12:38
they will be an ultimate最終 backup備用 if it comes to that.
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真的需要時,它們就是最好的備用品了。
12:41
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
12:44
I'd like to show顯示 you an animation動畫 in this next下一個 one,
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接下來我要給你們看一段動畫,
12:46
which哪一個 is one element元件
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它是關於,
12:48
of the Skycar's空中汽車的 use,
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飛天車的使用原理,
12:50
but it's one that demonstrates演示 how it could be used.
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並示範我們可以怎麼去運用它。
12:52
You could think of it personally親自 in your own擁有 terms條款,
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你可以用自己的角度去思考,
12:54
of how you might威力 use it.
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你會怎麼去使用它。
12:56
Video視頻: Skycar空中汽車 dispatched出動, launch發射 rescue拯救 vehicle車輛 for San Francisco弗朗西斯科.
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飛天車出發了,前往舊金山進行拯救任務。
13:28
Paul保羅 Moller穆勒: I believe that personal個人 transportation運輸
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我相信如同 Goldin 博士所說,
13:30
in something like the Skycar空中汽車,
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在未來十年內,
13:32
probably大概 in another另一個 volantorvolantor form形成 as well,
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類似於飛天車的個人交通工具
13:35
will be a significant重大 part部分 of our lives生活,
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或其他型態的飛行器,
13:38
as Dr博士. Goldin戈爾丁 says, within the next下一個 10 years年份.
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將會成為人們生活中重要的一部份。
13:41
And it's going to change更改 the demographics人口統計學 in a very significant重大 way.
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這將會明顯的改變人們的居住型態。
13:45
If you can live生活 75 miles英里 from San Francisco弗朗西斯科 and get there in 15 minutes分鐘,
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如果你能住在離舊金山75英哩但只需要15分鐘的交通時間,
13:49
you're going to sell your 700,000-dollar-美元 apartment公寓,
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那你就可以賣掉價值七十萬美金的公寓,
13:53
buy購買 an upscale高檔 home on the side of a mountain,
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然後在山邊買一棟更高檔的房子,
13:55
buy購買 a Skycar空中汽車,
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再買一部飛天車,
13:57
which哪一個 I think would be priced定價 at that time perhaps也許
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我想那時後飛天車的價格大概
13:59
in the area of 100,000 dollars美元, put money in the bank銀行 ...
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只要十萬美金左右,剩下的錢可以存進銀行 ...
14:02
that's a very significant重大 incentive激勵 for getting得到 out of San Francisco弗朗西斯科.
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讓你把錢存下來是購買的一大誘因 ...
14:06
But you better be the first one out of town as the real真實 estate房地產 values go to hell地獄.
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但你最好是第一個搬離都市的,因為房地產價格會暴跌。
14:09
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
14:14
Developing發展 the Skycar空中汽車 has been a real真實 challenge挑戰.
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開發飛天車是一項很大的挑戰。
14:17
Obviously明顯 I'm dependent依賴的 on a lot of other people
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很明顯的,我仰賴很多相信我的人們
14:19
believing相信 in what I'm doing -- both financially經濟 and in technical技術 help.
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提供給我金錢上與技術上的幫助。
14:23
And that has --
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畢竟對於同一件事情,
14:25
you run into situations情況 where you have this great acceptance驗收 of what you're doing,
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你可能會遇到接受度很高的人,
14:29
and a lot of rejection拒絕 of the same相同 kind of thing.
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也可能遇到完全不認同的人。
14:32
I characterized特徵 this emerging新興 technology技術
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我用一句格言來描述
14:36
in an aphorism格言,
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這項嶄新的技術,
14:38
as it's described描述,
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而這格言描述的是
14:41
which哪一個 really talks會談 about what I've experienced有經驗的,
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我所經歷過的一切,
14:43
and I'm sure what other people may可能 have experienced有經驗的
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以及我相信其他人對於嶄新的技術
14:45
in emerging新興 technologies技術.
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也會有的經驗。
14:53
There's an interesting有趣 poll輪詢 that came來了 out recently最近
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最近有個有趣的投票
14:55
under NASNAS --
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在 NAS --
14:57
I think it's MSNBCMSNBC --
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應該是 MSNBC 上 --
14:59
in which哪一個 they asked the question,
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他們問了這個問題,
15:01
"Are you in the market市場 for a volantorvolantor?"
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"你會想買飛天車嗎?"
15:04
Twenty-three二十三 percent百分 said, "Yes, as soon不久 as possible可能."
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23% 的人說,「會,我想趕快入手。」
15:07
Forty-seven四十七 percent百分 -- yes, as soon不久 as they could -- price價錢 could come down.
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47% 的人說,「會,只要價格不要太高我就買。」
15:10
Twenty-three二十三 percent百分 said, "As soon不久 as it's proven證明 safe安全."
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23% 的人說,「只要能證明它是安全的我就買。」
15:13
Only seven percent百分 said
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只有 7% 的人說
15:15
that they wouldn't不會 consider考慮 buying購買 a Skycar空中汽車.
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他們不會想買飛天車。
15:18
I'm encouraged鼓勵 by that. At least最小 it makes品牌 me feel like,
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這個結果給予我很大的鼓勵。至少讓我覺得,
15:22
to some extent程度, it is becoming變得 self-evident不言而喻.
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某個角度來看,它可以證明
15:25
That we need an alternative替代 to the automobile汽車,
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我們需要汽車的替代品
15:27
at least最小 for those 50-mile-英里 trips旅行 and more,
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至少是對於超過 50英哩的旅程,
15:29
so that the highways公路 become成為 usable可用 in today's今天的 world世界.
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這樣高速公路才會變得有效率。
15:32
Thank you.
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謝謝大家。
Translated by kane tan
Reviewed by Leonard Lin

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Paul Moller - Inventor
With a team of engineers, Paul Moller works on the Skycar, a combination car and jet, as well as the M200, a saucer-shaped hovering car. He also develops next-generation engines to power these and other amazing vehicles.

Why you should listen

Paul Moller is the president, CEO and chair of Moller International, a company devoted to engineering the combination of automobile and jet known as the Moller Skycar. His company also works on the M200, a low-flying disc, or volantor, that may go into production later in 2009. (As cool as it looks, the M200 has serious applications as a rescue vehicle.) A partner company, Freedom Motors, builds the Rotapower engine.

Moller developed the Aeronautical Engineering program at UC Davis while a professor there from 1963 to 1975. In 1972 he founded SuperTrapp Industries, and also led the group that developed the Davis Research Park Complex between 1975 and 1983. He's been working on VTOL (vertical takeoff and landing) personal vehicles since the late 1960s.

More profile about the speaker
Paul Moller | Speaker | TED.com