TED2003
Juan Enriquez: The life code that will reshape the future
Juan Enriquez 討論基因體學與我們的未來
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未來學家 Juan Enriquez 認為科學的發展需要從密碼改變起，而我們人類未來能否興盛，取決於我們對於這個密碼的熟悉度。在本演講中，他把這個概念應用到基因體學上。
Juan Enriquez - Futurist
Juan Enriquez thinks and writes about the profound changes that genomics and other life sciences will bring in business, technology, politics and society. Full bio
Juan Enriquez thinks and writes about the profound changes that genomics and other life sciences will bring in business, technology, politics and society. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:25
I'm supposed to scare you, because it's about fear, right?
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在這充滿危機感的時代, 我應該要來嚇唬各位, 對吧?
00:29
And you should be really afraid,
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你們也真的應該要感到害怕,
00:31
but not for the reasons why you think you should be.
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但不是因為你們想像中的原因.
00:34
You should be really afraid that --
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你們真正該擔心的是 --
00:36
if we stick up the first slide on this thing -- there we go -- that you're missing out.
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如果我們把第一張投影片放出來 -- 就像這樣 -- 是你錯過了什麼.
00:42
Because if you spend this week thinking about Iraq and
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因為如果你一個禮拜下來都在想著
00:46
thinking about Bush and thinking about the stock market,
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伊拉克, 布希, 還有股市,
00:50
you're going to miss one of the greatest adventures that we've ever been on.
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那你就會錯過人類到目前為止最偉大的探險之一.
00:53
And this is what this adventure's really about.
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而這, 就是這個探險的主體.
00:55
This is crystallized DNA.
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這是DNA(去氧核糖核酸)的結晶體.
00:59
Every life form on this planet -- every insect, every bacteria, every plant,
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地球上的每一個生物體 -- 每一隻昆蟲, 每一個細菌, 每一棵植物,
01:02
every animal, every human, every politician -- (Laughter)
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每一隻動物, 每一個人, 甚至每一個政治人物 -- (笑聲)
01:07
is coded in that stuff.
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都是用這個玩意兒編碼.
01:09
And if you want to take a single crystal of DNA, it looks like that.
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如果你想看個單一的DNA結晶體, 它長的就這個樣子.
01:13
And we're just beginning to understand this stuff.
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而且我們才剛開始了解這個東西.
01:16
And this is the single most exciting adventure that we have ever been on.
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這真的是我們所經歷過最令人興奮的探險.
01:20
It's the single greatest mapping project we've ever been on.
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這是我們所從事過最偉大的圖譜建置工程.
01:23
If you think that the mapping of America's made a difference,
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如果你們認為把美洲大陸放到地圖上這件事
01:25
or landing on the moon, or this other stuff,
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或是登陸月球, 或是人類其他重大歷史事件對世界的發展有重大的影響,
01:28
it's the map of ourselves and the map of every plant
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那麼, 我們人類, 還有每一棵植物,
01:31
and every insect and every bacteria that really makes a difference.
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每一隻昆蟲, 還有每一個細菌的基因圖譜, 才會真正重大的改變世界.
01:34
And it's beginning to tell us a lot about evolution.
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它已經開始告訴我們好多關於演化的事情.
01:39
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
01:43
It turns out that what this stuff is --
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我們發現這東西 --
01:45
and Richard Dawkins has written about this --
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Richard Dawkins 早就寫過這件事 --
01:47
is, this is really a river out of Eden.
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這真的就是 "伊甸園之河".
01:49
So, the 3.2 billion base pairs inside each of your cells
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所以, 你們每個人細胞中的32億對鹼基對
01:53
is really a history of where you've been for the past billion years.
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其實就是你們過去幾億年來的歷史紀錄.
01:56
And we could start dating things,
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所以我們可以開始鑑定日期,
01:57
and we could start changing medicine and archeology.
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可以開始改變醫學和考古學.
02:01
It turns out that if you take the human species about 700 years ago,
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就拿700年前的人類來說,
02:04
white Europeans diverged from black Africans in a very significant way.
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我們就發現當時的歐洲人跟非洲人就有非常大的差異.
02:07
White Europeans were subject to the plague.
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歐洲人當時飽受鼠疫侵害.
02:13
And when they were subject to the plague, most people didn't survive,
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感染到鼠疫的人, 很少有人存活,
02:16
but those who survived had a mutation on the CCR5 receptor.
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但只要是當時存活的人, 身上的CCR5接受子上都有個突變.
02:20
And that mutation was passed on to their kids
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這個突變就被傳給他們的後代.
02:22
because they're the ones that survived,
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因為只有擁有這種突變的人存活了下來,
02:24
so there was a great deal of population pressure.
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所以這種突變就在族群中非常普遍.
02:26
In Africa, because you didn't have these cities,
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在非洲, 因為沒有這些人口密集的都市, 就沒有造成瘟疫盛行,
02:28
you didn't have that CCR5 population pressure mutation.
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在非洲人身上就不會看到CCR5突變的普及.
02:31
We can date it to 700 years ago.
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我們可以精準的鑑定出這件事的發生是在700年前.
02:34
That is one of the reasons why AIDS is raging across Africa as fast as it is,
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而這也就是為何愛滋病在非洲橫行,
02:38
and not as fast across Europe.
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卻沒有在歐洲傳染得那麼快速的原因.
02:42
And we're beginning to find these little things for malaria,
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我們也開始發現像是瘧疾,
02:45
for sickle cell, for cancers.
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鐮刀型細胞, 還有癌症, 其實都有類似的故事.
02:49
And in the measure that we map ourselves,
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所以, 能夠把自己的基因圖譜建立起來,
02:51
this is the single greatest adventure that we'll ever be on.
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真的將是人類最偉大的探險.
02:53
And this Friday, I want you to pull out a really good bottle of wine,
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本週五, 我邀各位一起, 拿出一瓶極品的好酒,
02:57
and I want you to toast these two people.
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向這兩位致敬.
03:00
Because this Friday, 50 years ago, Watson and Crick found the structure of DNA,
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因為就在50年前的本週五, Watson和Crick發現了DNA的結構.
03:04
and that is almost as important a date
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這個日期幾乎就跟2月12日,
03:07
as the 12th of February when we first mapped ourselves,
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也就是我們首次完成人類基因圖譜的日子同等重要.
03:10
but anyway, we'll get to that.
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這個我們後頭還會再細談.
03:12
I thought we'd talk about the new zoo.
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我們先來談談最新的發展.
03:14
So, all you guys have heard about DNA, all the stuff that DNA does,
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各位都已經聽過關於DNA的事, 還有DNA能做些甚麼,
03:18
but some of the stuff we're discovering is kind of nifty
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不過我們最近的一個新發現實在是很酷
03:21
because this turns out to be the single most abundant species on the planet.
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因為我們發現它是世界上數量最龐大的物種.
03:26
If you think you're successful or cockroaches are successful,
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如果你們認為人類繁衍很成功, 或是蟑螂的繁衍很成功,
03:29
it turns out that there's ten trillion trillion Pleurococcus sitting out there.
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我們最近才發現世界上有十兆兆個這種名為 Pleurococcus的單細胞綠藻,
03:32
And we didn't know that Pleurococcus was out there,
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而我們卻一直都不知道有這種生物的存在.
03:35
which is part of the reason
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這就是這個物種基因圖譜建置計畫
03:36
why this whole species-mapping project is so important.
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如此重要的原因之一.
03:41
Because we're just beginning to learn
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就是因為有了這個圖譜, 我們才開始知道
03:43
where we came from and what we are.
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我們到底從何而來, 還有我們到底是什麼.
03:45
And we're finding amoebas like this. This is the amoeba dubia.
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我們也開始發現像這樣的變形蟲. 這是無恆變形蟲.
03:49
And the amoeba dubia doesn't look like much,
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這個無恆變形蟲看起來其貌不揚,
03:51
except that each of you has about 3.2 billion letters,
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不過你們每個人身上都帶著32億個字母,
03:54
which is what makes you you,
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而這些字母就躲在你們的基因深處
03:56
as far as gene code inside each of your cells,
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決定了你們是甚麼樣一個人.
03:59
and this little amoeba which, you know,
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而這個小小的變形蟲,
04:02
sits in water in hundreds and millions and billions,
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成萬成億的飄在水中,
04:05
turns out to have 620 billion base pairs of gene code inside.
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身上卻有6千2百億對鹼基對.
04:11
So, this little thingamajig has a genome
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換句話說, 這個小到不行的小不點兒的基因體
04:14
that's 200 times the size of yours.
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是你的200倍大.
04:17
And if you're thinking of efficient information storage mechanisms,
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如果你想要一個很有效率的資訊儲存裝置,
04:21
it may not turn out to be chips.
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你的答案可能不是晶片,
04:24
It may turn out to be something that looks a little like that amoeba.
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而是一個類似那隻變形蟲的東西.
04:28
And, again, we're learning from life and how life works.
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所以呢, 我們正在重新了解生命, 還有生命到底是怎麼一回事.
04:32
This funky little thing: people didn't used to think
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這個怪異的小東西. 人們從來就沒有想到過
04:36
that it was worth taking samples out of nuclear reactors
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要從核子反應爐中取出任何的樣本
04:39
because it was dangerous and, of course, nothing lived there.
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因為很危險, 而且想當然爾, 裡頭根本也不可能有什麼生物存活.
04:42
And then finally somebody picked up a microscope
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然後就終於有一天有人拿起了一個顯微鏡
04:45
and looked at the water that was sitting next to the cores.
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看看核反應爐裡面的水.
04:48
And sitting next to that water in the cores
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而就在這些反應核週圍的水裡
04:50
was this little Deinococcus radiodurans, doing a backstroke,
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有隻小小的奇異球菌 Deinococcus radiodurans 正在仰泳,
04:53
having its chromosomes blown apart every day,
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它每天都要經歷染色體被炸開六七次,
04:55
six, seven times, restitching them,
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再把染色體修補好
04:58
living in about 200 times the radiation that would kill you.
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好端端的活在人類致死輻射量的200倍的環境中.
05:01
And by now you should be getting a hint as to how diverse
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所以你應該可以開始理解到說這個探險的旅途
05:04
and how important and how interesting this journey into life is,
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將有多麼的多元, 重要, 而且有趣,
05:06
and how many different life forms there are,
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這世界上究竟還有多少種不同的生物,
05:09
and how there can be different life forms living in
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還有這些不同的生物究竟是如何的
05:12
very different places, maybe even outside of this planet.
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在地球上, 甚至是在別的星球上, 生存.
05:16
Because if you can live in radiation that looks like this,
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因為如果你可以在這種等級的輻射之下生存,
05:18
that brings up a whole series of interesting questions.
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那真的會引發一整串的有趣的問題.
05:22
This little thingamajig: we didn't know this thingamajig existed.
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這個小小的小不點: 我們原本根本就不知道有這個小不點存在.
05:26
We should have known that this existed
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我們其實應該要知道他的存在的
05:28
because this is the only bacteria that you can see to the naked eye.
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因為它是我們唯一能夠用肉眼看到的細菌.
05:31
So, this thing is 0.75 millimeters.
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這小東西大約0.75公厘大.
05:34
It lives in a deep trench off the coast of Namibia.
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它住在那米比亞外海的一個深溝裡.
05:37
And what you're looking at with this namibiensis
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而你們現在所看到的這個 namibiensis
05:39
is the biggest bacteria we've ever seen.
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就是我們現今見過最大的細菌.
05:41
So, it's about the size of a little period on a sentence.
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它大概就只有句子後面的句點那麼一丁點大.
05:45
Again, we didn't know this thing was there three years ago.
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而我們在三年前還根本不知道有它的存在.
05:49
We're just beginning this journey of life in the new zoo.
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我們才剛開始這個生命的旅程.
05:53
This is a really odd one. This is Ferroplasma.
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這個傢伙真的很怪. 它叫作 Ferroplasma.
05:57
The reason why Ferroplasma is interesting is because it eats iron,
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這個Ferroplasma有趣的原因在於他會吃鐵,
06:01
lives inside the equivalent of battery acid,
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而且生存在幾乎就等於電池酸液的環境之中,
06:05
and excretes sulfuric acid.
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而且會分泌硫酸.
06:09
So, when you think of odd life forms,
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所以如果你想到這一大堆怪異的生物,
06:11
when you think of what it takes to live,
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想到他們究竟是如何生存,
06:15
it turns out this is a very efficient life form,
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就會發現它其實非常的有效率.
06:17
and they call it an archaea. Archaea means "the ancient ones."
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它的名字叫作"古菌", 意思就是"古老"的意思.
06:21
And the reason why they're ancient is because this thing came up
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它之所以古老的原因是這個東西
06:25
when this planet was covered
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在地球還都被類似電池中的硫酸
06:27
by things like sulfuric acid in batteries,
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的東西包覆時就出現在地球上了,
06:28
and it was eating iron when the earth was part of a melted core.
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在地球還是一整塊熔岩的時候就在這裡吃鐵了.
06:33
So, it's not just dogs and cats and whales and dolphins
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所以在這個旅途中, 你不應該只是對
06:37
that you should be aware of and interested in on this little journey.
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小狗, 小貓, 鯨魚和海豚這些東西感興趣.
06:41
Your fear should be that you are not,
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你應該擔心的是你搞錯了,
06:44
that you're paying attention to stuff which is temporal.
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你關心的都是些短暫的東西.
06:47
I mean, George Bush -- he's going to be gone, alright? Life isn't.
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我的意思是說, 喬治布希 -- 他總有一天會成為過去, 對吧? 但生命不會.
06:53
Whether the humans survive or don't survive,
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不管人類是存活下去或是沒有存活下去,
06:56
these things are going to be living on this planet or other planets.
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這些生物將會繼續在這個地球, 甚至在別的星球上存活下去.
06:59
And it's just beginning to understand this code of DNA
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我們才剛開始了解DNA的遺傳密碼
07:03
that's really the most exciting intellectual adventure
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這實在是我們所有的智能探險中
07:06
that we've ever been on.
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最最刺激的一次.
07:09
And you can do strange things with this stuff. This is a baby gar.
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我們可以用這個東西作些怪事. 這是隻雀鱔的幼兒.
07:13
Conservation group gets together,
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保育團體會聚在一起,
07:15
tries to figure out how to breed an animal that's almost extinct.
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討論要如何繁衍一種即將絕種的動物.
07:20
They can't do it naturally, so what they do with this thing is
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他們無法用自然的方法辦到, 所以他們就利用這個東西.
07:23
they take a spoon, take some cells out of an adult gar's mouth, code,
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他們會拿個湯匙, 從一隻成年的雀鱔嘴裡刮出一些細胞, 解開他的密碼,
07:29
take the cells from that and insert it into a fertilized cow's egg,
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再拿些細胞注入牛的受精卵中,
07:34
reprogram cow's egg -- different gene code.
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把牛的卵重新編排成不同的基因密碼
07:38
When you do that, the cow gives birth to a gar.
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然後, 牛就會生出一隻雀鱔.
07:43
We are now experimenting with bongos, pandas, elims, Sumatran tigers,
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我們現在正在拿紫羚, 貓熊, 和蘇門答臘虎作實驗.
07:49
and the Australians -- bless their hearts --
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還有澳洲人 -- 上天保佑他們 --
07:52
are playing with these things.
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在玩這些東西.
07:53
Now, the last of these things died in September 1936.
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這些東西中的最後一隻在1936年九月死去了.
07:57
These are Tasmanian tigers. The last known one died at the Hobart Zoo.
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這是塔斯馬尼亞虎. 我們所知道的最後一隻是在Hobart動物園死去的.
08:01
But it turns out that as we learn more about gene code
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不過隨著我們對基因密碼
08:04
and how to reprogram species,
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和如何重整基因密碼的了解越多,
08:06
we may be able to close the gene gaps in deteriorate DNA.
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我們就越有機會修補缺損DNA的基因缺口.
08:11
And when we learn how to close the gene gaps,
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我們一旦學會了如何修補這些基因缺口,
08:14
then we can put a full string of DNA together.
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就可以重新把一串完整的DNA修復回來.
08:17
And if we do that, and insert this into a fertilized wolf's egg,
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然後, 我們就可以把這個完整的DNA串注入一個狼的受精卵中,
08:22
we may give birth to an animal
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就可以生出一隻
08:24
that hasn't walked the earth since 1936.
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自1936年起就從地球上消失的生物.
08:27
And then you can start going back further,
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然後你就可以追溯到更早之前的時間,
08:29
and you can start thinking about dodos,
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可以開始想多多鳥,
08:32
and you can think about other species.
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還有其它的物種.
08:34
And in other places, like Maryland, they're trying to figure out
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另外還有像在美國馬里蘭州, 就有些人在試圖找出
08:37
what the primordial ancestor is.
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所有生物的元祖.
08:39
Because each of us contains our entire gene code
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就因為我們每個人身上都帶著
08:42
of where we've been for the past billion years,
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我們過去幾億年來曾經是些什麼,
08:45
because we've evolved from that stuff,
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因為我們就是從那些東西演化而來,
08:47
you can take that tree of life and collapse it back,
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我們可以沿著那棵演化樹倒溯回去,
08:49
and in the measure that you learn to reprogram,
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當我們學會了重整基因密碼,
08:52
maybe we'll give birth to something
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我們就有可能生出一個
08:54
that is very close to the first primordial ooze.
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非常接近第一個原始生命體的有機質.
08:56
And it's all coming out of things that look like this.
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這一切, 都是從長得像這樣的東西生產出來的.
08:58
These are companies that didn't exist five years ago.
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這些公司在五年之前還不存在.
09:00
Huge gene sequencing facilities the size of football fields.
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面積大得像好幾座美式足球場的巨型基因序列設施.
09:04
Some are public. Some are private.
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有些是公立的, 有些是私立的.
09:06
It takes about 5 billion dollars to sequence a human being the first time.
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第一次將人類的基因序列完整的排列出來花了約美金50億元.
09:10
Takes about 3 million dollars the second time.
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第二次作同一件事需要約美金300萬元.
09:12
We will have a 1,000-dollar genome within the next five to eight years.
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在未來五到八年之內, 我們作出一整套人類的基因圖譜就會只需要美金1千元.
09:16
That means each of you will contain on a CD your entire gene code.
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到時候你們每一個人都會用一張CD片把你整套的遺傳密碼存起來.
09:21
And it will be really boring. It will read like this.
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它看起來非常無聊, 就像這樣.
09:24
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
09:26
The really neat thing about this stuff is that's life.
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不過這玩意兒最妙的地方就在於, 這就是生命.
09:28
And Laurie's going to talk about this one a little bit.
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待會兒Laurie會跟大家聊一聊這一個東西.
09:31
Because if you happen to find this one inside your body,
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因為如果你發現你身上有這個東西,
09:33
you're in big trouble, because that's the source code for Ebola.
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你的麻煩就大了. 因為這是伊波拉病毒的原始碼.
09:37
That's one of the deadliest diseases known to humans.
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那是目前所知致死率最高的人類疾病.
09:39
But plants work the same way and insects work the same way,
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但是植物和昆蟲也都是這樣運作,
09:41
and this apple works the same way.
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這顆蘋果也是.
09:43
This apple is the same thing as this floppy disk.
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這顆蘋果基本上就跟這片磁片一樣.
09:45
Because this thing codes ones and zeros,
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因為磁片上是用一和零編碼,
09:47
and this thing codes A, T, C, Gs, and it sits up there,
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而蘋果則是用 A, T, C, G 編碼. 他就靜靜的坐在樹上,
09:49
absorbing energy on a tree, and one fine day
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吸取能源, 直到某天風和日麗, 它吸足了能量,
09:52
it has enough energy to say, execute, and it goes [thump]. Right?
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要啟動生命程序, 就會"咚"的一聲掉下來, 對吧?
09:56
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
09:59
And when it does that, pushes a .EXE, what it does is,
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然後, 他就會啟動一個 .EXE 的程式,
10:03
it executes the first line of code, which reads just like that,
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開始執行第一行的編碼, 就像這樣
10:06
AATCAGGGACCC, and that means: make a root.
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AATCAGGGACCC, 意思就是: 造一條根.
10:09
Next line of code: make a stem.
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下一行: 造一枝莖.
10:11
Next line of code, TACGGGG: make a flower that's white,
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再下一行, TACGGGG: 造一朵白色的花,
10:14
that blooms in the spring, that smells like this.
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在春天裡綻放, 散出這樣的氣味.
10:17
In the measure that you have the code
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如果你擁有它的密碼
10:19
and the measure that you read it --
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並擁有解讀它的能力 --
10:22
and, by the way, the first plant was read two years ago;
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就像我們兩年前第一次讀懂了一株植物;
10:24
the first human was read two years ago;
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兩年前第一次讀懂了一個人;
10:26
the first insect was read two years ago.
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兩年前第一次讀懂了一隻昆蟲.
10:28
The first thing that we ever read was in 1995:
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事實上我們第一次讀懂一個生物是在1995年
10:31
a little bacteria called Haemophilus influenzae.
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一個叫作流感嗜血桿菌的小細菌.
10:34
In the measure that you have the source code, as all of you know,
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眾所皆知, 一旦你擁有了原始碼,
10:37
you can change the source code, and you can reprogram life forms
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你就可以改變原始碼, 重新改寫生物形式
10:39
so that this little thingy becomes a vaccine,
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所以這個小東西就會變成一個疫苗,
10:41
or this little thingy starts producing biomaterials,
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或是開始生產生物材料,
10:44
which is why DuPont is now growing a form of polyester
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這就是為什麼現在杜邦公司可以"生長"出一種聚酯
10:47
that feels like silk in corn.
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摸起來就跟玉米中的細絲一模一樣.
10:50
This changes all rules. This is life, but we're reprogramming it.
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這會改變所有的規則. 這是生命, 但是我們正在重新改寫它.
10:57
This is what you look like. This is one of your chromosomes.
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你就長這個樣子. 這是你的一條染色體.
11:01
And what you can do now is,
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而我們現在可以作的就是
11:03
you can outlay exactly what your chromosome is,
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把你的染色體全部譜出來
11:06
and what the gene code on that chromosome is right here,
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到時我們就可以看到那條染色體上的基因密碼到底是什麼,
11:09
and what those genes code for, and what animals they code against,
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知道那些基因是作什麼用的, 知道它跟哪一種動物的基因很像,
11:12
and then you can tie it to the literature.
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然後就可以把這個資訊聯結到文獻之中.
11:14
And in the measure that you can do that, you can go home today,
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我們一旦可以這樣作, 就可以回到家裡,
11:17
and get on the Internet, and access
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上網連上世界上
11:19
the world's biggest public library, which is a library of life.
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最大的公共圖書館, 也就是生命的圖書館.
11:23
And you can do some pretty strange things
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然後就可以作一些很怪異的事情.
11:25
because in the same way as you can reprogram this apple,
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因為就如同你可以改變這顆蘋果的基因,
11:28
if you go to Cliff Tabin's lab at the Harvard Medical School,
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如果你到哈佛大學醫學院Cliff Tabin的研究室,
11:31
he's reprogramming chicken embryos to grow more wings.
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你就可以看到他正在改造雞的胚胎好讓它多長幾隻翅膀.
11:37
Why would Cliff be doing that? He doesn't have a restaurant.
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Cliff 這樣作是為了什麼? 他又不開餐館.
11:40
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
11:42
The reason why he's reprogramming that animal to have more wings
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他要讓小雞多長幾隻翅膀的目的,
11:45
is because when you used to play with lizards as a little child,
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是因為我們都知道小時候玩弄蜥蜴時,
11:48
and you picked up the lizard, sometimes the tail fell off, but it regrew.
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我們把蜥蜴抓起來, 有時候它的尾巴會掉下來, 可是會再長出來.
11:52
Not so in human beings:
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但人類不能這樣.
11:55
you cut off an arm, you cut off a leg -- it doesn't regrow.
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人如果切斷一條手臂, 或切斷一條腿, 是不會長回來的.
11:58
But because each of your cells contains your entire gene code,
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但是因為你每一個細胞都包含了你全部的遺傳密碼,
12:03
each cell can be reprogrammed, if we don't stop stem cell research
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每一個細胞都可以作重整, 只要我們不中斷幹細胞的研究,
12:07
and if we don't stop genomic research,
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不中斷基因體的研究,
12:09
to express different body functions.
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我們就可以了解身體各種功能的基因表現.
12:13
And in the measure that we learn how chickens grow wings,
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我們一旦學會了如何讓雞長出翅膀,
12:16
and what the program is for those cells to differentiate,
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了解讓那些細胞特化的機制,
12:18
one of the things we're going to be able to do
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我們將能作好多事情, 其中包括
12:21
is to stop undifferentiated cells, which you know as cancer,
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制止未分化細胞的增生, 也就是一般所謂的癌症,
12:25
and one of the things we're going to learn how to do
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我們也將能夠
12:27
is how to reprogram cells like stem cells
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改造幹細胞
12:30
in such a way that they express bone, stomach, skin, pancreas.
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讓這些細胞表現成骨骼, 胃, 皮膚, 脾臟.
12:37
And you are likely to be wandering around -- and your children --
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在不久的將來, 你和你的小孩
12:40
on regrown body parts in a reasonable period of time,
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將可以帶著重新生長出來的身體部位到處晃蕩,
12:44
in some places in the world where they don't stop the research.
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只要在這些研究沒有被停下來的地方,
12:49
How's this stuff work? If each of you differs
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這是如何辦到的? 如果你們之中每一個人
12:54
from the person next to you by one in a thousand, but only three percent codes,
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跟鄰座的人在百分之三的遺傳密碼中有千分之一的差異,
12:57
which means it's only one in a thousand times three percent,
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也就是千分之一再乘以百分之三,
12:59
very small differences in expression and punctuation
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在基因的表現和分歧上只要發生如此小的差異
13:02
can make a significant difference. Take a simple declarative sentence.
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就可以產生很顯著的差異. 就拿這個簡單的敘述句當例子.
13:07
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
13:09
Right?
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對吧?
13:10
That's perfectly clear. So, men read that sentence,
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這就非常清楚了. 如果男人讀這句話,
13:14
and they look at that sentence, and they read this.
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他們的解讀是: "女人, 沒有了她的男人, 就什麼都不是."
13:22
Okay?
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對吧?
13:23
Now, women look at that sentence and they say, uh-uh, wrong.
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不過若換成女人看這個句子, 她們會說, 不對不對.
13:27
This is the way it should be seen.
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這句話應該是: "女人: 沒有了她, 男人就什麼都不是."
13:31
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
13:39
That's what your genes are doing.
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這就是你們的基因在作的事.
13:40
That's why you differ from this person over here by one in a thousand.
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這也就是為什麼你跟這邊這個人差異這麼大了.
13:45
Right? But, you know, he's reasonably good looking, but...
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對吧? 他雖然還蠻帥的, 但是...
13:48
I won't go there.
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不扯這個了.
13:51
You can do this stuff even without changing the punctuation.
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你即使不改變句讀, 都可以讓它很不一樣.
13:55
You can look at this, right?
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這是國稅局, 對吧?
13:59
And they look at the world a little differently.
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不過國稅局看到同樣的字, 解讀會不太一樣.
14:01
They look at the same world and they say...
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他們看著相同的字卻會念成 "他們的"...
14:03
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
14:09
That's how the same gene code -- that's why you have 30,000 genes,
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這就是為什麼同樣是三萬個基因, 你有三萬個基因,
14:13
mice have 30,000 genes, husbands have 30,000 genes.
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老鼠有三萬個基因, 丈夫有三萬個基因.
14:16
Mice and men are the same. Wives know that, but anyway.
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老鼠跟人都一樣 (雙關語: 老鼠跟男人都一樣). 這點作妻子的早就知道了 ...
14:20
You can make very small changes in gene code
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你可以在基因密碼中作點非常小的改變就得到非常不同的結果,
14:22
and get really different outcomes,
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即使是用同一串字母.
14:26
even with the same string of letters.
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"讓我們一起去吧" // "讓我們去逮她吧"
14:30
That's what your genes are doing every day.
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這就是你的基因每天在作的事.
14:33
That's why sometimes a person's genes
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這也就是為什麼有的時候一個人的基因
14:35
don't have to change a lot to get cancer.
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不需要作太多的改變就會得到癌症.
14:41
These little chippies, these things are the size of a credit card.
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這些小晶片, 大小就差不多跟信用卡一樣大,
14:46
They will test any one of you for 60,000 genetic conditions.
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就可以檢測你有沒有60,000種基因的組合狀態.
14:49
That brings up questions of privacy and insurability
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這下隱私權跟保險受不受理的問題就會冒出來了
14:52
and all kinds of stuff, but it also allows us to start going after diseases,
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還有其他類似的問題, 不過它也能讓我們開始真正的解決疾病的問題
14:55
because if you run a person who has leukemia through something like this,
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因為如果你讓一個有血癌的人作這個篩檢
14:59
it turns out that three diseases with
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會非常有幫助, 因為有三種不同的疾病
15:01
completely similar clinical syndromes
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在臨床上的症狀幾乎完全類似
15:05
are completely different diseases.
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卻是三種完全不同的疾病.
15:07
Because in ALL leukemia, that set of genes over there over-expresses.
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因為在所有的血癌中, 這一組基因都會過度表現.
15:10
In MLL, it's the middle set of genes,
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若是MLL型血癌, 就是中間那組基因,
15:12
and in AML, it's the bottom set of genes.
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若是AML型血癌, 就是下面那組基因.
15:14
And if one of those particular things is expressing in your body,
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如果找出來是這幾個基因在作怪
15:19
then you take Gleevec and you're cured.
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那就服用 Gleevec 便可以治癒
15:22
If it is not expressing in your body,
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但如果不是這幾個基因的問題
15:24
if you don't have one of those types --
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那你就不是這幾種類型的血癌
15:26
a particular one of those types -- don't take Gleevec.
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不是其中的一種, 那就不要服用 Gleevec.
15:29
It won't do anything for you.
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用那個藥對你一點用處都沒有.
15:31
Same thing with Receptin if you've got breast cancer.
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如果你有乳癌, 要不要服用 Receptin 也是同樣的問題.
15:34
Don't have an HER-2 receptor? Don't take Receptin.
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如果沒有 HER-2 接受體, 就不要服用 Receptin.
15:37
Changes the nature of medicine. Changes the predictions of medicine.
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這會改變醫學的本質. 會改變醫學的預測.
15:41
Changes the way medicine works.
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改變行醫的方式.
15:43
The greatest repository of knowledge when most of us went to college
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當年我們還在念大學時最偉大的知識儲藏庫
15:46
was this thing, and it turns out that
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就是這個, 但如今
15:48
this is not so important any more.
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它已經沒有那麼重要了.
15:50
The U.S. Library of Congress, in terms of its printed volume of data,
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美國國會圖書館所館藏的資料量
15:54
contains less data than is coming out of a good genomics company
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遠少於從一個好的基因體公司
15:58
every month on a compound basis.
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每個月累積生產出來的資料量.
16:01
Let me say that again: A single genomics company
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我再重複一次: 單單一個基因體公司
16:04
generates more data in a month, on a compound basis,
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在一個月之內累積出來的資料產出
16:07
than is in the printed collections of the Library of Congress.
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會比國會圖書館的館藏還要多.
16:11
This is what's been powering the U.S. economy. It's Moore's Law.
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這是美國經濟的原動力. 這是摩爾定律.
16:15
So, all of you know that the price of computers halves every 18 months
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大家都知道, 電腦每18個月, 價錢就會砍一半
16:20
and the power doubles, right?
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但運算能力變兩倍, 對吧?
16:22
Except that when you lay that side by side with the speed
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但是如果你把它跟基因資料
16:26
with which gene data's being deposited in GenBank,
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被輸入基因資料庫的速度並排
16:29
Moore's Law is right here: it's the blue line.
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這是摩爾定律, 就是藍線.
16:34
This is on a log scale, and that's what superexponential growth means.
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這是對數刻度, 意思就是它正在以超指數成長.
16:38
This is going to push computers to have to grow faster
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這會迫使電腦以比以前更快
16:42
than they've been growing, because so far,
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的速度成長, 因為到目前為止
16:44
there haven't been applications that have been required
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都還沒有任何需求說要比摩爾定律更快
16:47
that need to go faster than Moore's Law. This stuff does.
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但這個就會了
16:50
And here's an interesting map.
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這是張很有趣的地圖
16:52
This is a map which was finished at the Harvard Business School.
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這地圖是在哈佛商學院完成的
16:56
One of the really interesting questions is, if all this data's free,
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有趣的是, 如果這些資料都是免費的
16:59
who's using it? This is the greatest public library in the world.
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那是誰在用它? 這是世界上最大的公共圖書館
17:03
Well, it turns out that there's about 27 trillion bits
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約有27兆位元的資料
17:06
moving inside from the United States to the United States;
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在美國內部傳過來傳過去
17:09
about 4.6 trillion is going over to those European countries;
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約4.6兆位元的資料被傳到歐洲去
17:13
about 5.5's going to Japan; there's almost no communication
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約5.5兆位元傳到日本去; 但日本內部幾乎沒有交換任何資訊,
17:16
between Japan, and nobody else is literate in this stuff.
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除此之外, 世界其他各處都沒有人讀得懂這些東西.
17:20
It's free. No one's reading it. They're focusing on the war;
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明明是免費的, 但是沒有人在讀. 大家只關注戰爭
17:25
they're focusing on Bush; they're not interested in life.
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關注布希, 但沒有人關心生命.
17:28
So, this is what a new map of the world looks like.
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所以, 這就是新的世界地圖
17:31
That is the genomically literate world. And that is a problem.
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這是世界上讀得懂基因體的地區的地圖. 這裡有個問題.
17:37
In fact, it's not a genomically literate world.
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就是, 這世界上大部分的地區都讀不懂基因體.
17:39
You can break this out by states.
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你可以用州去細分這張地圖
17:41
And you can watch states rise and fall depending on
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你可以看到一個州因為它是否
17:43
their ability to speak a language of life,
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讀得懂生命的語言而盛衰
17:45
and you can watch New York fall off a cliff,
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你可以看到紐約從懸崖上摔落
17:47
and you can watch New Jersey fall off a cliff,
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你可以看到紐澤西摔落
17:49
and you can watch the rise of the new empires of intelligence.
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你可以看到新的智慧帝國興起
17:53
And you can break it out by counties, because it's specific counties.
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你也可以用縣細分這張地圖
17:56
And if you want to get more specific,
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如果你想更仔細
17:58
it's actually specific zip codes.
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還可以用郵遞區號細分
18:00
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
18:02
So, you want to know where life is happening?
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所以, 你想知道生命在哪裡蓬勃發展嗎?
18:05
Well, in Southern California it's happening in 92121. And that's it.
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在南加州的話就是郵遞區號92121的地方
18:11
And that's the triangle between Salk, Scripps, UCSD,
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就是沙克學院(Salk), Scripps研究院, 和加州大學聖地牙哥分校 (UCSD)
18:16
and it's called Torrey Pines Road.
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之間的三角形, 叫作Torrey Pines 路的地方.
18:18
That means you don't need to be a big nation to be successful;
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所以你並不需要國力強大才能成功;
18:21
it means you don't need a lot of people to be successful;
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你也不需要人數眾多才能成功;
18:23
and it means you can move most of the wealth of a country
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你可以將一個國家大部分的財富
18:26
in about three or four carefully picked 747s.
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搬進三, 四台精心挑選的747客機裡頭.
18:30
Same thing in Massachusetts. Looks more spread out but --
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麻塞諸塞州的狀況也是一樣, 雖然看起來比較分散些但是 --
18:34
oh, by the way, the ones that are the same color are contiguous.
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喔, 對了, 同樣的顏色代表連續分部.
18:38
What's the net effect of this?
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所以這個現象的淨效應是什麼?
18:40
In an agricultural society, the difference between
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在農業社會裡,
18:42
the richest and the poorest,
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最有錢和最窮的人的差異,
18:44
the most productive and the least productive, was five to one. Why?
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也就是產量最高者和產量最低者的差異, 是五比一. 為什麼?
18:48
Because in agriculture, if you had 10 kids
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因為在農業社會哩, 如果你有10個孩子
18:50
and you grow up a little bit earlier and you work a little bit harder,
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比別人早起工作, 也比別人努力工作,
18:53
you could produce about five times more wealth, on average,
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你可以平均比你的鄰居多出
18:55
than your neighbor.
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約五倍的財富.
18:57
In a knowledge society, that number is now 427 to 1.
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在知識社會裡, 這個數字是427比1.
19:01
It really matters if you're literate, not just in reading and writing
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所以你懂不懂一個語言, 不只是說你能否用英文,
19:05
in English and French and German,
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法文, 和德文, 讀跟寫,
19:07
but in Microsoft and Linux and Apple.
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還有微軟, Linux, 和蘋果.
19:10
And very soon it's going to matter if you're literate in life code.
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不久的將來, 你懂不懂生命密碼將會舉足輕重.
19:14
So, if there is something you should fear,
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所以如果你真的要擔心什麼
19:16
it's that you're not keeping your eye on the ball.
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重點不是要隨時注意周遭在發生些什麼事.
19:19
Because it really matters who speaks life.
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真正重要的是: 誰讀得懂生命的語言.
19:22
That's why nations rise and fall.
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這將會決定國家的盛衰.
19:25
And it turns out that if you went back to the 1870s,
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如果你回到1870年代
19:28
the most productive nation on earth was Australia, per person.
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世界上每人平均產量最高的國家是澳洲.
19:31
And New Zealand was way up there. And then the U.S. came in about 1950,
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當時紐西蘭的排名也很前面. 然後美國在1950年代興起,
19:34
and then Switzerland about 1973, and then the U.S. got back on top --
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然後瑞士在1973左右引領群雄, 然後美國又追上了 --
19:38
beat up their chocolates and cuckoo clocks.
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打敗了瑞士的巧克力和咕咕鐘.
19:42
And today, of course, you all know that the most productive nation
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當然當今世上產量最高的國家
19:45
on earth is Luxembourg, producing about one third more wealth
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是盧森堡, 每人每年產出
19:48
per person per year than America.
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比美國還多了三分之一.
19:51
Tiny landlocked state. No oil. No diamonds. No natural resources.
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小小的內陸國家, 沒有石油, 沒有鑽石, 沒有天然資源.
19:55
Just smart people moving bits. Different rules.
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只是聰明的人民從事資訊業. 用著完全不同的規則.
20:01
Here's differential productivity rates.
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這是生產力級差
20:05
Here's how many people it takes to produce a single U.S. patent.
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每多少個美國人可以生產出一個專利.
20:08
So, about 3,000 Americans, 6,000 Koreans, 14,000 Brits,
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所以美國要3,000人, 韓國要6,000人, 英國要14,000人,
20:12
790,000 Argentines. You want to know why Argentina's crashing?
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阿根廷要790,000人. 你想知道阿根廷的經濟為什麼在急速衰退嗎?
20:15
It's got nothing to do with inflation.
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跟通貨膨脹無關.
20:17
It's got nothing to do with privatization.
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跟私有化無關.
20:19
You can take a Harvard-educated Ivy League economist,
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你可以把一個哈佛大學畢業的長春藤經濟學家,
20:23
stick him in charge of Argentina. He still crashes the country
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讓他負責阿根廷的經濟. 那個國家的經濟還是不會有起色.
20:26
because he doesn't understand how the rules have changed.
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因為他不會了解, 遊戲規則如何改變了.
20:29
Oh, yeah, and it takes about 5.6 million Indians.
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對了, 印度呢? 要560萬印度人.
20:32
Well, watch what happens to India.
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我們來看看印度的狀況.
20:34
India and China used to be 40 percent of the global economy
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印度和中國在工業革命的前夕
20:37
just at the Industrial Revolution, and they are now about 4.8 percent.
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曾經佔世界經濟的40%, 現在只佔4.8%.
20:42
Two billion people. One third of the global population producing 5 percent of the wealth
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二十億人口. 世界上三分之一的人口生產世界上5%的財富.
20:46
because they didn't get this change,
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因為他們沒有搭上這個改革,
20:49
because they kept treating their people like serfs
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因為他們一直把人當農奴對待,
20:51
instead of like shareholders of a common project.
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而不是當作一個共同產業的股東.
20:55
They didn't keep the people who were educated.
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他們沒有留住受到良好教育的人.
20:58
They didn't foment the businesses. They didn't do the IPOs.
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他們沒有助長企業, 沒有重視智慧財產.
21:01
Silicon Valley did. And that's why they say
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矽谷作到了. 這就是為什麼他們說
21:05
that Silicon Valley has been powered by ICs.
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矽谷是靠 IC 撐起來的.
21:08
Not integrated circuits: Indians and Chinese.
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可是這個 IC 指的不是積體電路, 而是印度人(Indians)和華人(Chinese).
21:11
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
21:15
Here's what's happening in the world.
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這就是世界上正在發生的事.
21:17
It turns out that if you'd gone to the U.N. in 1950,
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如果你在1950年到聯合國去
21:20
when it was founded, there were 50 countries in this world.
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那時聯合國剛成立, 世界上只有50個國家.
21:22
It turns out there's now about 192.
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現在世界上有192個國家.
21:25
Country after country is splitting, seceding, succeeding, failing --
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許多國家一直在變動: 分裂, 獨立, 演變, 失敗.
21:30
and it's all getting very fragmented. And this has not stopped.
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國家趨於分裂, 而且這個趨勢並沒有停止.
21:35
In the 1990s, these are sovereign states
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1990年的時候, 這些獨立國家
21:38
that did not exist before 1990.
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在1990年之前並不存在.
21:40
And this doesn't include fusions or name changes or changes in flags.
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而且這還不包括合併, 更名, 或國旗變更的新國家.
21:45
We're generating about 3.12 states per year.
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我們每年產生3.12個新國家.
21:48
People are taking control of their own states,
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越來越多的人民在掌控自己的國家.
21:51
sometimes for the better and sometimes for the worse.
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有的時候變得比較好, 有的時候是越弄越糟.
21:54
And the really interesting thing is,
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不過真正有趣的是,
21:56
you and your kids are empowered to build great empires,
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你和你的孩子都有能力創造偉大的帝國,
21:58
and you don't need a lot to do it.
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而且所需的並不多.
22:00
(Music)
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(音樂)
22:02
And, given that the music is over, I was going to talk
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我本來還要談
22:05
about how you can use this to generate a lot of wealth,
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你們能夠如何運用這個生產很多的財富,
22:08
and how code works.
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還有這個密碼如何運作.
22:10
Moderator: Two minutes.
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(主持人: 兩分鐘)
22:11
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
22:13
Juan Enriquez: No, I'm going to stop there and we'll do it next year
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不過, 我還是停下來好了, 等明年再說
22:17
because I don't want to take any of Laurie's time.
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因為我不想佔用 Laurie 的時間.
22:20
But thank you very much.
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謝謝各位.
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Juan Enriquez - FuturistJuan Enriquez thinks and writes about the profound changes that genomics and other life sciences will bring in business, technology, politics and society.
Why you should listen
A broad thinker who studies the intersections of these fields, Enriquez has a talent for bridging disciplines to build a coherent look ahead. He is the managing director of Excel Venture Management, a life sciences VC firm. He recently published (with Steve Gullans) Evolving Ourselves: How Unnatural Selection and Nonrandom Mutation Are Shaping Life on Earth. The book describes a world where humans increasingly shape their environment, themselves and other species.
Enriquez is a member of the board of Synthetic Genomics, which recently introduced the smallest synthetic living cell. Called “JCVI-syn 3.0,” it has 473 genes (about half the previous smallest cell). The organism would die if one of the genes is removed. In other words, this is the minimum genetic instruction set for a living organism.
Juan Enriquez | Speaker | TED.com