TED2002
Dean Kamen: To invent is to give
Dean Kamen談發明與給予
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發明家Dean Kamen提出對賽格威的論點，並提及他接下來的計畫（可攜式能源和發展中國家的淨水系統）。
Dean Kamen - Inventor
Dean Kamen landed in the limelight with the Segway, but he has been innovating since high school, with more than 150 patents under his belt. Recent projects include portable energy and water purification for the developing world, and a prosthetic arm for maimed soldiers. Full bio
Dean Kamen landed in the limelight with the Segway, but he has been innovating since high school, with more than 150 patents under his belt. Recent projects include portable energy and water purification for the developing world, and a prosthetic arm for maimed soldiers. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:24
As you pointed out, every time you come here, you learn something.
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正如你所說，每次來這裡都有一些收穫。
00:28
This morning, the world's experts
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今天早上，大概有三至四家
00:30
from I guess three or four different companies on building seats,
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世界級座椅製作公司的專家告訴我們，
00:34
I think concluded that ultimately, the solution is, people shouldn't sit down.
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人類不應該坐下，
00:39
I could have told them that.
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我早就知道了！
00:41
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
00:43
Yesterday, the automotive guys gave us some new insights.
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昨天那些車商提出一些新的見解，
00:49
They pointed out that, I believe it was between 30 and 50 years from today,
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他們說，在未來的30年到50年，
00:55
they will be steering cars by wire,
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人們的車子將會以電線驅動，
00:58
without all that mechanical stuff.
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不再需要那些機械了。
01:00
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
01:02
That's reassuring.
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這真讓我鬆了一口氣！
01:04
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
01:08
They then pointed out that there'd be, sort of, the other controls by wire,
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然後他們又說會有其他一組以電線操縱的裝置，
01:13
to get rid of all that mechanical stuff.
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來取代現有的機械零件。
01:15
That's pretty good, but why not get rid of the wires?
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那也很好，但為什麼不拿掉電線呢？
01:20
Then you don't need anything to control the car, except thinking about it.
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既然不用任何東西就能操縱車子，為什麼不用意志來操縱呢？
01:28
I would love to talk about the technology,
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我想談一下科技，
01:30
and sometime, in what's past the 15 minutes,
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大概會用去十五分鐘，
01:34
I'll be happy to talk to all the techno-geeks around here
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我想跟在座愛好科技的朋友談一下，
01:36
about what's in here.
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這裡面有什麼。
01:40
But if I had one thing to say about this, before we get to first,
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可是在開始之前，
01:44
it would be that from the time we started building this,
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我要先說，在我們開始打造這台車的時候，
01:50
the big idea wasn't the technology.
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重點並不在於技術本身，
01:52
It really was a big idea in technology when we started applying it
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重點在於我們想將iBOT這項技術
01:55
in the iBOT for the disabled community.
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應用到殘障朋友身上，
01:57
The big idea here is, I think, a new piece of a solution
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我們希望這項創新發明，
02:03
to a fairly big problem in transportation.
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能改善這項嚴重的交通問題。
02:07
And maybe to put that in perspective: there's so much data on this,
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長遠來看，有很多構面，
02:12
I'll be happy to give it to you in different forms.
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我很樂意從不同構面來解釋這件事情。
02:14
You never know what strikes the fancy of whom,
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不知道為了什麼，
02:17
but everybody is perfectly willing to believe the car changed the world.
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大家都相信汽車改變了世界。
02:22
And Henry Ford, just about 100 years ago, started cranking out Model Ts.
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大約在100年前，福特開始生產T型車，
02:26
What I don't think most people think about
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我認為大部分的人不會去想
02:28
is the context of how technology is applied.
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汽車裡面到底放了什麼了不起的科技。
02:32
For instance, in that time, 91 percent of America
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舉例來說，當時有91%的美國人
02:35
lived either on farms or in small towns.
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住在農村和小鎮，
02:38
So, the car --
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所以汽車
02:41
the horseless carriage that replaced the horse and carriage -- was a big deal;
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這種不需要馬拉的車輛，代替了馬車，那是很了不起的！
02:45
it went twice as fast as a horse and carriage.
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汽車的速度比馬車快上一倍，
02:47
It was half as long.
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車身又只有馬車的一半，
02:49
And it was an environmental improvement, because, for instance,
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還可以改善環境衛生，因為在1903年，
02:53
in 1903 they outlawed horses and buggies in downtown Manhattan,
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政府禁止市民在曼哈頓區內駕駛馬車，
02:58
because you can imagine what the roads look like
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想像一下那些馬路的模樣，
03:01
when you have a million horses,
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當路上有百萬匹馬在走，
03:04
and a million of them urinating and doing other things,
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隨時都在便溺或做些什麼其他的事，
03:08
and the typhoid and other problems created were almost unimaginable.
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那會引發傷寒，還有其他我們無法想像的問題。
03:14
So the car was the clean environmental alternative to a horse and buggy.
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所以與馬車相較，汽車是讓環境更衛生的交通工具。
03:18
It also was a way for people to get from their farm to a farm,
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汽車也可以讓人來往農莊之間、
03:22
or their farm to a town, or from a town to a city.
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讓人從農莊走進城鎮，
03:25
It all made sense, with 91 percent of the people living there.
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因為那時有91%的人住在農莊，所以這很合理。
03:30
By the 1950s, we started connecting all the towns together
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但自1950年代起，我們開始以被世人稱為
03:34
with what a lot of people claim is the eighth wonder of the world, the highway system.
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世界第八奇景的公路系統，將所有城鎮連接起來，
03:38
And it is certainly a wonder.
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形成另一奇景。
03:41
And by the way, as I take shots at old technologies,
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對了，在我談論舊式科技的時候，
03:45
I want to assure everybody, and particularly the automotive industry --
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我想向各位保證，尤其是對一向非常支持我們的
03:49
who's been very supportive of us --
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汽車業保證，
03:51
that I don't think this in any way competes with airplanes, or cars.
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我不認為這台車能與飛機或汽車競爭。
03:59
But think about where the world is today.
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但請想想目前世界的狀況，
04:03
50 percent of the global population now lives in cities.
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有一半人口住在城市裡，
04:06
That's 3.2 billion people.
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足足有32億人。
04:10
We've solved all the transportation problems
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所有交通問題都已被汽車和飛機解決，
04:12
that have changed the world to get it to where we are today.
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他們改變了世界，讓我們得以享有今日的一切。
04:15
500 years ago, sailing ships started getting reliable enough;
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500年前，發展成熟的造船技術
04:18
we found a new continent.
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讓我們發現新大陸；
04:20
150 years ago, locomotives got efficient enough, steam power,
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150年前，蒸汽火車發展得很好，
04:24
that we turned the continent into a country.
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讓我們把一片大陸變成一個國家；
04:27
Over the last hundred years, we started building cars,
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在過去的100年裡，我們開始製造汽車，
04:30
and then over the 50 years we've connected every city to every other city
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然後在後來的50年裡，以極有效率的方式，
04:33
in an extraordinarily efficient way,
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將所有城市連結起來，
04:35
and we have a very high standard of living as a consequence of that.
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也為我們帶來極高水準生活品質。
04:38
But during that entire process, more and more people have been born,
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但在這段時間裡，有大量的人口出生，
04:43
and more and more people are moving to cities.
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也有越來越多人搬進城市。
04:45
China alone is going to move four to six hundred million people
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在未來15年，單是中國就有
04:49
into cities in the next decade and a half.
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四至六億人會遷入城市。
04:53
And so, nobody, I think, would argue that airplanes, in the last 50 years,
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所以我認為，沒有人會否認在過去50年間，
04:59
have turned the continent and the country now into a neighborhood.
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飛機已把大陸和國家轉化為一個社區。
05:03
And if you just look at how technology has been applied,
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如果觀察科技運用的情形，
05:05
we've solved all the long-range, high-speed, high-volume,
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你會發現，無論距離、速度、數量、
05:09
large-weight problems of moving things around.
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重量，我們都能進行運輸，
05:12
Nobody would want to give them up.
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沒有人會想放棄這些技術。
05:14
And I certainly wouldn't want to give up my airplane,
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當然，我也捨不得我的飛機、
05:17
or my helicopter, or my Humvee, or my Porsche.
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直升機、悍馬或保時捷，
05:21
I love them all. I don't keep any of them in my living room.
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雖然我沒法把它們放在客廳裡，但我還是很喜歡它們。
05:24
The fact is, the last mile is the problem,
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問題是出在最後那一段路，
05:29
and half the world now lives in dense cities.
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因為有一半的人居住在城市裡。
05:32
And people spend, depending on who they are,
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雖然每一個人的狀況不同，但大多數的人
05:34
between 90 and 95 percent of their energy getting around on foot.
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會花90%至95%的體力徒步行走。
05:39
I think there's -- I don't know what data would impress you,
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我不知道哪種數據會讓你印象深刻，
05:42
but how about, 43 percent of the refined fuel produced in the world
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但美國市區的汽車就用掉了
05:48
is consumed by cars in metropolitan areas in the United States.
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全球43%的汽油；
05:54
Three million people die every year in cities due to bad air,
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每年有三百萬市民死於空氣污染；
05:59
and almost all particulate pollution on this planet
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而幾乎地球上所有的微粒污染
06:02
is produced by transportation devices, particularly sitting in cities.
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都是源於交通工具，尤其是市區裡的交通工具。
06:07
And again, I say that not to attack any industry,
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我再一次說明，我不是在抨擊任何產業，
06:11
I think -- I really do -- I love my airplane,
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我真的很喜歡我的飛機，
06:14
and cars on highways moving 60 miles an hour
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也喜歡在公路上以時速100公里奔馳的車子，
06:17
are extraordinarily efficient,
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他們的效率都非常好，
06:19
both from an engineering point of view,
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不管是從工程的角度、
06:22
an energy consumption point of view, and a utility point of view.
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能源消耗的角度，或從效用的角度上看都一樣。
06:25
And we all love our cars, and I do.
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我們都愛自己的車子，我也是。
06:28
The problem is, you get into the city and you want to go four blocks,
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問題是，當你在市區裡，想走過四個街區，
06:32
it's neither fun nor efficient nor productive.
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那既無聊又沒有效率，也沒有生產力，
06:35
It's not sustainable.
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更不可能持久。
06:37
If -- in China, in the year 1998, 417 million people used bicycles;
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1998年的中國，有四億一千七百萬人騎自行車，
06:43
1.7 million people used cars.
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170萬人開車。
06:47
If five percent of that population became, quote, middle class,
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如果當中有5%的人成為了所謂的中產階級，
06:51
and wanted to go the way we've gone in the last hundred years
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希望走上我們過去100年的發展路徑，
06:56
at the same time that 50 percent of their population are moving into cities
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同時當中有一半的人每隔六週
06:59
of the size and density of Manhattan, every six weeks --
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就會遷入面積和密度跟曼哈頓一樣城市，
07:03
it isn't sustainable environmentally;
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那麼整個環境會撐不住、
07:05
it isn't sustainable economically -- there just ain't enough oil --
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經濟也撐不住，因為汽油不夠；
07:09
and it's not sustainable politically.
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政治上也撐不住。
07:11
I mean, what are we fighting over right now?
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我想說的是，我們現在到底在爭什麼呢？
07:13
We can make it complicated, but what's the world fighting over right now?
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我們可以把問題變得再複雜一點，但大家到底在爭什麼呢？
07:17
So it seemed to me that somebody had to work on that last mile,
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對我來說，總有人要負責那最後一哩路，
07:24
and it was dumb luck. We were working on iBOTs,
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所以我們決定研發iBOT；
07:27
but once we made this, we instantly decided
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但當我們做出iBOT後，我們馬上發現
07:29
it could be a great alternative to jet skis. You don't need the water.
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iBOT就像是陸地上的水上摩托車，
07:33
Or snowmobiles. You don't need the snow.
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或是不用在雪地裡駕駛的雪車，
07:35
Or skiing. It's just fun, and people love to move around doing fun things.
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甚至像是純為好玩的滑雪工具，大家都喜歡跑來跑去做些有趣的事。
07:42
And every one of those industries, by the way --
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話說回來，在水上摩托車或雪車等行業中，
07:44
just golf carts alone is a multi-billion-dollar industry.
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只有高球車才是價值數十億元以上的行業。
07:47
But rather than go license this off, which is what we normally do,
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我們平常都會幫研發出來的東西申請執照，
07:50
it seemed to me that if we put all our effort not into the technology,
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但除此之外，我認為我們也不應該太強調這裡頭的科技，
07:54
but into an understanding of a world that's solved all its other problems,
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反而應該讓大眾瞭解我們解決了大部分人們的問題，
07:58
but has somehow come to accept that cities -- which,
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讓大家可以融入這個城市，
08:03
right back from ancient Greece on, were meant to walk around,
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就像古希臘人所創造的城市一樣，那是要讓人走入的城市，
08:06
cities that were architected and built for people --
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是為居民打造的城市，
08:09
now have a footprint that,
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我們讓人可以走入其間，
08:11
while we've solved every other transportation problem --
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我們讓現在交通工具改進的速度
08:13
and it's like Moore's law.
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就如摩爾定律一般。
08:15
I mean, look at the time it took to cross a continent in a Conestoga wagon,
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我是說，以前我們是以寬輪篷車穿越大陸，
08:20
then on a railroad, then an airplane.
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然後是火車，接下來是飛機，
08:23
Every other form of transportation's been improved.
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每一種交通工具都進步一點。
08:27
In 5,000 years, we've gone backwards in getting around cities.
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五千年來，我們慢慢聚集到城市裡，
08:31
They've gotten bigger; they're spread out.
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城市變得更大、更廣，
08:34
The most expensive real estate on this planet in every city --
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地球上最昂貴的房地產是在城市裡，
08:39
Wilshire Boulevard, or Fifth Avenue, or Tokyo, or Paris --
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無論是威爾夏大道、第五大道、東京還是巴黎，
08:43
the most expensive real estate is their downtowns.
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最貴的房地產就位於市中心。
08:46
65 percent of the landmass of our cities are parked cars.
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市區內有65%的土地是用來停車的，
08:50
The 20 largest cities in the world.
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全球二十大城市都是如此。
08:52
So you wonder, what if cities could give to their pedestrians
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你或許會想，如果城市裡的行人
08:57
what we take for granted as we now go between cities?
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也能像我們現在開車在城市裡自由行走，那該有多好？
09:01
What if you could make them fun, attractive, clean,
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如果我們可以讓城市變得更有趣、更吸引人、更整潔、
09:05
environmentally friendly?
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更環保，那該有多好？
09:09
What if it would make it a little bit more palatable
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如果我們能讓大眾更方便地到達
09:12
to have access via this, as that last link to mass transit,
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大眾運輸系統，或是更方便地從捷運下車
09:18
to get out to your cars so we can all live in the suburbs
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回到車上，那麼大家都可以住在郊外，
09:21
and use our cars the way we want,
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更有效率地使用我們的車輛，
09:23
and then have our cities energized again?
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讓我們的城市再次充滿活力，那該有多好？
09:28
We thought it would be really neat to do that,
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我們覺得能達到這些目標會很棒，
09:30
and one of the problems we really were worried about
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但真正困擾我們的是，
09:32
is: how do we get legal on the sidewalk?
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如何合法地在人行道上使用這台車，
09:35
Because technically I've got motors; I've got wheels -- I'm a motor vehicle.
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因為技術上來說，這台車有馬達和車輪，這是一輛機動車，
09:39
I don't look like a motor vehicle.
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但它根本不像是台機動車輛，
09:41
I have the same footprint as a pedestrian;
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它跟行人一樣會留下足跡，
09:43
I have the same unique capability
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它也同樣可以
09:47
to deal with other pedestrians in a crowded space.
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在擁擠的環境中前進。
09:49
I took this down to Ground Zero,
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我曾駕駛這台車去911之後的世貿大樓遺址，
09:51
and knocked my way through crowds for an hour.
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花了一個小時才從人群中擠出來，
09:54
I'm a pedestrian. But the law typically lags technology by a generation or two,
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我就是行人。但法律通常比科技落後一至兩代，
09:59
and if we get told we don't belong on the sidewalk, we have two choices.
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如果我們不能走人行道，我們還有兩個選擇，
10:05
We're a recreational vehicle that doesn't really matter,
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其一是成為微不足道的休閒車，
10:07
and I don't spend my time doing that kind of stuff.
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但我不會把時間花在這種事情上；
10:12
Or maybe we should be out in the street
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其二是我們應該行走在公路上，
10:14
in front of a Greyhound bus or a vehicle.
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就走在灰狗巴士或汽車的前面。
10:18
We've been so concerned about that,
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我們很擔心這個問題，
10:20
we went to the Postmaster General of the United States,
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所以我們去拜訪美國的郵政署長，
10:22
as the first person we ever showed on the outside,
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那是我們第一次對外發表這台車，
10:25
and said, "Put your people on it. Everybody trusts their postman.
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我們說：「讓郵差試試看吧，大家都信任郵差，
10:29
And they belong on the sidewalks, and they'll use it seriously."
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郵差本來就可以走在人行道上，他們會認真地看待這台車。」
10:34
He agreed. We went to a number of police departments
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他同意了。我們還去拜訪了好幾個警察局，
10:37
that want their police officers back in the neighborhood
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請他們讓員警駕駛這台車到社區巡邏，
10:39
on the beat, carrying 70 pounds of stuff. They love it.
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員警身上本來就有三十多公斤的配備，他們愛死這台車了，
10:43
And I can't believe a policeman is going to give themselves a ticket.
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我才不相信有哪個警察會給自己開罰單。
10:47
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
10:50
So we've been working really, really hard,
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所以我們真的下了很多、很多工夫，
10:52
but we knew that the technology would not be as hard to develop
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但我們知道開發這項科技並不是最難的，
10:55
as an attitude about what's important, and how to apply the technology.
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最難的是培養知所輕重的態度，以及運用科技的正確心態。
11:00
We went out and we found some visionary people
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我們找到了一些有夢想的投資者，
11:03
with enough money to let us design and build these things,
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他們提供了足夠的資金讓我們研發這東西，
11:08
and in hopefully enough time to get them accepted.
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大家都希望能儘快推出上市。
11:12
So, I'm happy, really, I am happy to talk about this technology as much as you want.
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我很高興，我真的很願意盡可能地與各位討論這項技術，
11:17
And yes, it's really fun, and yes, you should all go out and try it.
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這真的很有趣，你該出去試一試！
11:21
But if I could ask you to do one thing,
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我只拜託各位一件事，
11:23
it's not to think about it as a piece of technology,
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不要只把這台車當成是一種技術，
11:25
but just imagine that, although we all understand somehow
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我請各位想像一下，我們都知道
11:29
that it's reasonable that we use our 4,000-pound machine,
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重達約二噸的汽車是很好用的，
11:33
which can go 60 miles an hour,
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時速有100公里，
11:35
that can bring you everywhere you want to go,
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你可以開你的車子到任何地方去，
11:37
and somehow it's also what we used for the last mile,
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但就在快到達目的地時，
11:43
and it's broken, and it doesn't work.
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車子卻壞了，不能動了。
11:46
One of the more exciting things that occurred to us
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我們遇過最興奮的事情之一，
11:49
about why it might get accepted, happened out here in California.
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就是在加州這裡，那件事讓我們覺得一般人應該會接受這台車。
11:54
A few weeks ago, after we launched it,
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就在幾個星期前，那時我們剛剛才公開這台車，
11:56
we were here with a news crew on Venice Beach, zipping up and back,
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我們在威尼斯海灘與一位新聞採訪人員一起試乘這台車，
12:01
and he's marveling at the technology,
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他對這項技術讚歎不已，
12:03
and meanwhile bicycles are zipping by,
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這時候騎腳踏車的人也停了下來，
12:05
and skateboarders are zipping by,
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溜滑板的也靠了過來，
12:07
and a little old lady -- I mean, if you looked in the dictionary,
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還有一位矮小的老婦人，就是一個矮小的老婦人，
12:11
a little old lady -- came by me --
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也靠到我身邊，
12:14
and now that I'm on this, I'm the height of a normal adult now --
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當時我站在這上面，跟一般成年人一樣高，
12:18
and she just stops, and the camera is there, and she looks up at me
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她停了下來，鏡頭就在那邊，她抬頭看著我，
12:24
and says, "Can I try that?"
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說：「我可以試嗎？」
12:27
And what was I -- you know, how are you going to say anything?
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你覺得我可以說什麼嗎？
12:30
And so I said, "Sure."
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所以我說：「當然可以。」
12:32
So I get off, and she gets on, and with a little bit of the usual, ah,
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我從車上下來，她站上去，和平常人一樣東摸西摸，
12:38
then she turns around, and she goes about 20 feet,
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在附近繞了大約五、六公尺，
12:43
and she turns back around, and she's all smiles.
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又繞回來，臉上一直保持著微笑。
12:46
And she comes back to me and she stops, and she says,
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她回到我旁邊停下來說：
12:52
"Finally, they made something for us."
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「終於有專門為我們打造的東西了。」
12:56
And the camera is looking down at her.
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鏡頭往下對著她拍，
12:58
I'm thinking, "Wow, that was great --
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我心想：「哇，太好了！
13:00
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
13:01
-- please lady, don't say another word."
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拜託，不要再說別的了！」
13:03
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
13:06
And the camera is down at her,
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鏡頭仍然對著她拍，
13:08
and this guy has to put the microphone in her face,
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那位採訪員把麥克風對著她問：
13:10
said, "What do you mean by that?"
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「你這麼說是什麼意思？」
13:12
And I figured, "It's all over now,"
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我想著：「完蛋了！」
13:14
and she looks up and she says, "Well,"
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她抬起頭說：「嗯，」
13:18
she's still watching these guys go; she says, "I can't ride a bike," no,
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她還在看著附近的人來來去去，說：「我不會騎腳踏車」，不，
13:21
she says, "I can't use a skateboard, and I've never used roller blades,"
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她是說：「我不會溜滑板，也沒玩過溜冰鞋，」
13:25
she knew them by name;
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她還知道這些東西的名字哩...
13:27
she says, "And it's been 50 years since I rode a bicycle."
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她說：「我上次騎腳踏車已經是五十年前的事了。」
13:30
Then she looks up, she's looking up, and she says,
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然後她抬起頭，看著鏡頭說：
13:34
"And I'm 81 years old, and I don't drive a car anymore.
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「我今年81歲了，已經不能開車了，
13:38
I still have to get to the store, and I can't carry a lot of things."
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但我還是得去超級市場，只是不能帶太多東西。」
13:42
And it suddenly occurred to me, that among my many fears,
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我突然發覺，我最怕的
13:46
were not just that the bureaucracy and the regulators
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不是官僚體系、法令規範者、
13:49
and the legislators might not get it --
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或立法的人不能接受這台車，
13:52
it was that, fundamentally, you believe there's pressure among the people
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而是我相信人們會給我們壓力，
13:57
not to invade the most precious little bit of space left,
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要我們不得侵佔城市中僅剩的一點空間，
14:00
the sidewalks in these cities.
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也就是行人的人行道。
14:02
When you look at the 36 inches of legal requirement for sidewalk,
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法令規定人行道最少要有90公分寬，
14:06
then the eight foot for the parked car, then the three lanes,
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然後加上停一台車的寬度是2.5公尺，再加上三線車道，
14:09
and then the other eight feet -- it's --
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再過來是對向車道的停車位2.5公尺，
14:11
that little piece is all that's there.
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人行道就只有那麼一點空間。
14:15
But she looks up and says this,
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可是她對著鏡頭這麼說，
14:17
and it occurs to me, well, kids aren't going to mind these things,
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我突然覺得，嗯，孩子們不會介意，
14:19
and they don't vote, and business people and then young adults
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而且他們沒有投票權；商人和年輕的成人
14:23
aren't going to mind these things -- they're pretty cool --
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也不會介意，他們只在乎酷不酷；
14:25
so I guess subliminally I was worried
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因此潛意識裡，我所擔心的
14:27
that it's the older population that's going to worry.
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是老人家們會反對。
14:30
So, having seen this, and having worried about it for eight years,
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所以，在看到這個老婦人的反應後，在我擔心了八年之後，
14:35
the first thing I do is pick up my phone and ask our marketing and regulatory guys,
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我立刻撥電話給我們的行銷人員和法律顧問，
14:39
call AARP, get an appointment right away.
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要他們和AARP(美國退休人員協會)立刻安排時間會面，
14:42
We've got to show them this thing.
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我們得給他們看看這個東西。
14:44
And they took it to Washington; they showed them;
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然後他們把這台車帶到華盛頓，做了一番展示，
14:47
and they're going to be involved now,
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現在他們也想要參與這個計畫，
14:49
watching how these things get absorbed in a number of cities,
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他們想看看著這台車在幾個大城市的反應，
14:53
like Atlanta, where we're doing trials to see if it really can, in fact,
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像是亞特蘭大，我們目前正在當地進行試乘，
14:57
help re-energize their downtown.
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我們想看看是否能為市區注入新的活力。
15:00
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
15:07
The bottom line is, whether you believe the United Nations,
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最後，不管你相不相信聯合國，
15:12
or any of the other think tanks --
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也不管你相不相信其他智庫組織所說的，
15:14
in the next 20 years, all human population growth on this planet
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在未來的二十年內，人口的增長
15:18
will be in cities.
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將會集中於城市。
15:20
In Asia alone, it will be over a billion people.
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單是亞洲就會有超過十億人口居住在城市，
15:23
They learned to start with cell phones.
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這些新的城市居民一開始就會用手機，
15:27
They didn't have to take the 100-year trip we took.
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不用走回我們過去100年走過的老路，
15:30
They start at the top of the technology food chain.
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他們所使用的全是最尖端的科技產品。
15:33
We've got to start building cities and human environments
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我們要打造的城市或環境，
15:36
where a 150-pound person can go a couple of miles
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必須可以讓一個70公斤的人在密集、富庶、
15:39
in a dense, rich, green-space environment,
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綠化的環境中走上個幾公里路，
15:42
without being in a 4,000-pound machine to do it.
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而不需要倚賴重達2噸的汽車來載送。
15:46
Cars were not meant for parallel parking;
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汽車不是用來停的，
15:49
they're wonderful machines to go between cities, but just think about it:
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汽車是讓我們得以穿梭城市的美好工具，但請試著想一下：
15:53
we've solved all the long-range, high-speed problems.
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我們用汽車解決了遠距離和高速的問題。
15:58
The Greeks went from the theater of Dionysus to the Parthenon in their sandals.
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古希臘人穿著涼鞋從戴奧尼索斯劇場走到帕德嫩神廟，
16:03
You do it in your sneakers.
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你現在只不過換成運動鞋而已，
16:05
Not much has changed.
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沒什麼變化。
16:07
If this thing goes only three times as fast as walking -- three times --
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如果有東西能讓人提升行走速度三倍--三倍--
16:12
a 30-minute walk becomes 10 minutes.
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也就是把30分鐘的路程縮減為10分鐘，
16:14
Your choice, when living in a city, if it's now 10 minutes --
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如果你住在市區，而路程只有10分鐘，你會選擇什麼？
16:19
because at 30 minutes you want an alternative, whether it's a bus, a train --
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如果是30分鐘的路程，你可能會想搭公車或火車，
16:23
we've got to build an infrastructure -- a light rail --
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或者蓋個簡便的輕軌捷運，
16:25
or you're going to keep parking those cars.
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或者選擇開車去。
16:27
But if you could put a pin in most cities,
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如果你注意觀察大部分的城市，
16:30
and imagine how far you could, if you had the time, walk in one half-hour, it's the city.
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在你有空閒的時候，走上30分鐘，看看你能在城裡走多遠。
16:36
If you could make it fun, and make it eight or 10 minutes,
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如果路程可以變得更有趣，時間又可以縮到8至10分鐘，
16:38
you can't find your car, un-park your car, move your car,
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這點時間還不夠你找到車子、開車、到某個定點、
16:41
re-park your car and go somewhere;
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再把車子停好；
16:43
you can't get to a cab or a subway.
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這點時間也不適合搭計程車或捷運。
16:46
We could change the way people allocate their resources,
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我們可以改變分配資源的方法，
16:49
the way this planet uses its energy,
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改變世人消耗能源的方法，
16:52
make it more fun.
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讓它變得更有趣。
16:54
And we're hoping to some extent history will say we were right.
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同時我們希望，在某個程度上，未來歷史會證明我們是對的。
16:59
That's Segway. This is a Stirling cycle engine;
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那是賽格威，這是史特林引擎，
17:02
this had been confused by a lot of things we're doing.
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很多人搞不清楚我們在做什麼。
17:06
This little beast, right now, is producing a few hundred watts of electricity.
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這個小怪獸現在正在產出數百瓦的電力，
17:11
Yes, it could be attached to this,
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對，它能夠接在這個後面，
17:13
and yes, on a kilogram of propane,
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只需要用一公斤的丙烷，
17:16
you could drive from New York to Boston if you so choose.
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你願意的話，就可以從紐約走到波士頓。
17:21
Perhaps more interesting about this little engine is it'll burn any fuel,
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也許更有趣的地方是，這台小機器可以燃燒任何燃料，
17:25
because some of you might be skeptical
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你們之中可能有人會懷疑
17:27
about the capability of this to have an impact,
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這台車是否會對環境造成影響，
17:31
where most of the world you can't simply plug into your 120-volt outlet.
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因為除了美國之外，其他國家都不能插入120伏特的插座。
17:35
We've been working on this,
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我們現在正在想辦法解決這個問題，
17:37
actually, as an alternative energy source,
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想要為iBOT找到替代能源，
17:39
starting way back with Johnson & Johnson, to run an iBOT,
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我們開始和嬌生公司合作，
17:41
because the best batteries you could get --
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我們所能取得最好的電池是：
17:45
10 watt-hours per kilogram in lead,
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每公斤鉛10瓦小時，
17:47
20 watt-hours per kilogram nickel-cadmium,
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每公斤鎳鎘20瓦小時，
17:49
40 watt-hours per kilogram in nickel-metal hydride,
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每公斤鎳金屬氫化物40瓦小時，
17:51
60 watt-hours per kilogram in lithium,
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每公斤鋰60瓦小時，
17:54
8,750 watt-hours of energy in every kilogram of propane or gasoline --
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每公斤丙烷或汽油8千750瓦小時，
17:59
which is why nobody drives electric cars.
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這就是為什麼大家都不開電動車的原因。
18:01
But, in any event, if you can burn it with the same efficiency --
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如果有其他東西燃燒後可以產生相同效果--
18:07
because it's external combustion -- as your kitchen stove,
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因為它是外部燃燒--跟你家的爐灶一樣，
18:10
if you can burn any fuel, it turns out to be pretty neat.
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所以不管燃燒什麼燃料，都不會有污染。
18:13
It makes just enough electricity to, for instance, do this,
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它所產生的電力恰好可以發動這台車，
18:16
which at night is enough electricity, in the rest of the world,
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對世界上其他地方來說，也足夠支應晚上所需電力，
18:19
as Mr. Holly -- Dr. Holly -- pointed out,
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正如何利先生--何利博士所指出的，
18:22
can run computers and a light bulb.
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剛好足以啟動電腦和一盞燈泡。
18:25
But more interestingly, the thermodynamics of this say,
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更有趣的是，這方面的熱電學家說，
18:29
you're never going to get more than 20 percent efficiency.
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這個東西的效能，絕對不會超過20%，
18:32
It doesn't matter much -- it says if you get 200 watts of electricity,
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這樣也沒關係，也就是說如果產生了200瓦的電力，
18:35
you'll get 700 or 800 watts of heat.
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就會產生700到800瓦的熱能。
18:38
If you wanted to boil water and re-condense it at a rate of 10 gallons an hour,
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如果我們想要以每小時40公升的速度煮沸水，
18:43
it takes about 25, a little over 25.3 kilowatt --
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就需要大概25，或比25.3千瓦再多一點，
18:46
25,000 watts of continuous power -- to do it.
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大概要持續維持在二萬五千瓦的熱能才能辦到。
18:50
That's so much energy, you couldn't afford to desalinate
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這會耗去大量的能源，根本無法用此法淡化海水，
18:52
or clean water in this country that way.
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或以此法清潔水源。
18:54
Certainly, in the rest of the world, your choice is to devastate the place,
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當然，在世界上其他地方，這樣做無疑是摧毁當地資源，
18:58
turning everything that will burn into heat, or drink the water that's available.
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把所有可燃的物質都轉化為熱能，或把所有可喝的水都喝光。
19:03
The number one cause of death on this planet among humans is bad water.
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世界上首要的致命原因就是水質不良，
19:07
Depending on whose numbers you believe,
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端看你採信什麼數據，
19:09
it's between 60 and 85,000 people per day.
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實際上每天有六萬至八萬五千人因此死亡。
19:12
We don't need sophisticated heart transplants around the world.
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我們還不需要技術成熟的心臟移植手術，
19:15
We need water.
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我們需要水源。
19:17
And women shouldn't have to spend four hours a day looking for it,
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婦女們不該再每天花四個小時尋找水源，
19:20
or watching their kids die.
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或看著孩子們死去。
19:22
We figured out how to put a vapor-compression distiller on this thing,
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我們想出該怎麼樣把蒸汽壓縮蒸餾器放在這上面，
19:25
with a counter-flow heat exchanger to take the waste heat,
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再以反流式換熱器採集剩餘的熱能，
19:28
then using a little bit of the electricity control that process,
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然後只要用少量電力控制整個過程，
19:32
and for 450 watts, which is a little more than half of its waste heat,
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大約是450瓦，就是比剩餘熱能的一半再多一點，
19:38
it will make 10 gallons an hour of distilled water
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如此每小時就能造出十加侖蒸餾水，
19:40
from anything that comes into it to cool it.
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任何東西都能發揮冷卻的作用。
19:42
So if we put this box on here in a few years,
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所以，如果我們把這個盒子放在這裡，
19:45
could we have a solution to transportation, electricity,
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放個幾年看看，我們能否在這不到30公斤重的盒子裡，
19:51
and communication, and maybe drinkable water
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創造出能夠有效解決交通、電力、
19:55
in a sustainable package that weighs 60 pounds?
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通訊、甚或飲用水問題的方案？
19:59
I don't know, but we'll try it.
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我不知道，但我們會試試看。
20:01
I better shut up.
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我該住口了。
20:03
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dean Kamen - InventorDean Kamen landed in the limelight with the Segway, but he has been innovating since high school, with more than 150 patents under his belt. Recent projects include portable energy and water purification for the developing world, and a prosthetic arm for maimed soldiers.
Why you should listen
Dean Kamen is an innovator, but not just of things. He hopes to revolutionize attitudes, quality of life, awareness. While an undergraduate, he developed the first portable infusion device, which delivers drug treatments that once required round-the-clock hospital care. And, through his DEKA Research and Development, which he cofounded in 1982, he developed a portable dialysis machine, a vascular stent, and the iBOT -- a motorized wheelchair that climbs stairs (Stephen Colbert took one for a spin).
Yes, he's a college dropout, but he's a huge believer in education, and in 1989 established the nonprofit FIRST (For Inspiration and Recognition of Science and Technology) to inspire teenagers to pursue careers in science. FIRST sponsors lively annual competitions, where students form teams to create the best robot.
His focus now is on off-grid electricity and water purification for developing countries; another recent project, previewed at TED2007, is a prosthetic arm for maimed soldiers (read an update here). He's also working on a power source for the wonderful Think car. And, with more funding in the works, we haven't seen the last of the Segway.
Dean Kamen | Speaker | TED.com