ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.

Why you should listen

Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.

What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.

Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.

Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)

Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.

Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.


More profile about the speaker
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com
TED@Cannes

Hans Rosling: Global population growth, box by box

Hans Rosling 談世界人口成長

Filmed:
3,914,736 views

在接下來五十年,世界人口將增長到九十億——惟有在最貧窮國家的生活水準得到改善後,我們才得以測量人口成長的真實數據。這個似是而非的答案是 Hans Rosling 在 TED@Cannes 的演說內容,他使用繽紛的新數據科技,向我們呈現他的新發現。
- Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:16
I still remember記得 the day in school學校
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我還記得以前在學校時,
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when our teacher老師 told us
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當老師告訴我們
00:21
that the world世界 population人口 had become成為
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世界人口已達
00:23
three billion十億 people,
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三十億人的時候,
00:25
and that was in 1960.
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那年是 1960 年。
00:29
I'm going to talk now about
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我現在想談論的是
00:31
how world世界 population人口 has changed from that year
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自從那年後,世界人口是如何改變了,
00:33
and into the future未來,
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未來又將如何?
00:35
but I will not use digital數字 technology技術,
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但這次我不用數位科技
00:38
as I've doneDONE during my first five TEDTalksTED演講.
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因為在前五場的 TEDTalks,我已用了好幾次
00:41
Instead代替, I have progressed進展,
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相反地,這次我進步了
00:44
and I am, today今天, launching發射
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今天,我要展開一項
00:46
a brand new analog類似物 teaching教學 technology技術
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全新的類比教學技術,
00:49
that I picked採摘的 up from IKEAIKEA:
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一個我從 IKEA 取得的科技產品:
00:51
this box.
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就是這個箱子。
00:53
This box contains包含 one billion十億 people.
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這箱子藏有十億人。
00:55
And our teacher老師 told us
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我們以前的老師告訴我們,
00:57
that the industrialized工業化 world世界, 1960,
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1960 年時,在工業國家裡
01:00
had one billion十億 people.
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共有十億人口。
01:02
In the developing發展 world世界, she said,
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她說,在發展中國家
01:04
they had two billion十億 people.
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有二十億人。
01:06
And they lived生活 away then.
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而他們的生活遠遠不及工業化國家。
01:08
There was a big gap間隙 between之間
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在他們之中,隔著一個巨大鴻溝
01:10
the one billion十億 in the industrialized工業化 world世界
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十億人住在工業化的世界裡,
01:12
and the two billion十億 in the developing發展 world世界.
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另外二十億人住在開發中國家。
01:15
In the industrialized工業化 world世界,
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在工業化世界裡,
01:17
people were healthy健康,
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人們身體健康、
01:19
educated博學, rich豐富,
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教育良好、生活富裕、
01:21
and they had small families家庭.
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也擁有小家庭。
01:23
And their aspiration心願
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他們的志願是
01:25
was to buy購買 a car汽車.
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買一輛車。
01:27
And in 1960, all Swedes瑞典人 were saving保存
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1960 年時, 每個瑞典人都會存錢
01:30
to try to buy購買 a Volvo沃爾沃 like this.
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買一輛 Volvo,像這個
01:33
This was the economic經濟 level水平 at which哪一個 Sweden瑞典 was.
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這是當時瑞典的經濟水準
01:36
But in contrast對比 to this,
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但相反地,
01:38
in the developing發展 world世界, far away,
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開發中國家卻遠不及此,
01:40
the aspiration心願 of the average平均 family家庭 there
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在那裡,一般家庭的志願是
01:43
was to have food餐飲 for the day.
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求一頓安飽就好
01:46
They were saving保存
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他們存錢
01:48
to be able能夠 to buy購買 a pair of shoes.
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是爲了能夠買一雙鞋
01:51
There was an enormous巨大 gap間隙 in the world世界
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當時世界存在一個巨大鴻溝。
01:53
when I grew成長 up.
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當我還小的時候
01:55
And this gap間隙 between之間 the West西 and the rest休息
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這個介於西方國家和其他地區的鴻溝
01:58
has created創建 a mindset心態 of the world世界,
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創造了一種世界心態
02:01
which哪一個 we still use linguistically語言
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這個心態反應在,我們仍然在語言上
02:03
when we talk about "the West西"
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使用「西方國家」
02:05
and "the Developing發展 World世界."
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與「發展中國家」等詞彙。
02:07
But the world世界 has changed,
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但這個世界已經改變了,
02:09
and it's overdue過期的 to upgrade升級 that mindset心態
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心態卻沒有更新
02:12
and that taxonomy分類 of the world世界, and to understand理解 it.
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分類世界的方法也停留在過去,沒有人好好地理解
02:15
And that's what I'm going to show顯示 you,
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這就是我要向各位展示的東西
02:17
because since以來 1960
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因為,自從 1960 年開始,
02:20
what has happened發生 in the world世界 up to 2010
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一直到 2010 年以來,在這個世界上所發生的是
02:23
is that a staggering踉蹌
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一個驚人的
02:25
four billion十億 people
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四十億人口
02:27
have been added添加 to the world世界 population人口.
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加入了世界
02:29
Just look how many許多.
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看看數據就可以明白
02:31
The world世界 population人口 has doubled翻倍
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自從我上學後,
02:33
since以來 I went to school學校.
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全球人口翻了兩倍。
02:37
And of course課程, there's been economic經濟 growth發展 in the West西.
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當然,西方國家的經濟有所成長
02:40
A lot of companies公司 have happened發生 to grow增長 the economy經濟,
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許多企業提振了經濟,
02:43
so the Western西 population人口 moved移動 over to here.
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於是,西方國家的人口也移到這裡
02:46
And now their aspiration心願 is not only to have a car汽車.
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現在,他們的志願已經不再只是一輛車了
02:49
Now they want to have a holiday假日 on a very remote遠程 destination目的地
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現在他們要的是長途旅行
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and they want to fly.
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他們想坐飛機
02:54
So this is where they are today今天.
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所以這是他們今天所在之處
02:56
And the most successful成功 of the developing發展 countries國家,
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而在這裡,最成功的發展中國家
02:59
they have moved移動 on, you know,
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也進步了,
03:01
and they have become成為 emerging新興 economies經濟, we call them.
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他們成為新興國家
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They are now buying購買 cars汽車.
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現在他們開始買起車子。
03:06
And what happened發生 a month ago
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就在一個月前
03:08
was that the Chinese中文 company公司, Geely吉利,
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一家中國企業——吉利汽車
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they acquired後天 the Volvo沃爾沃 company公司,
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買下了 Volvo
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and then finally最後 the Swedes瑞典人 understood了解 that
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於是瑞典人終於明白
03:15
something big had happened發生 in the world世界.
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有什麽大事發生了。
03:17
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
03:20
So there they are.
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就是這樣
03:22
And the tragedy悲劇 is that the two billion十億 over here
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但悲傷的是,這裡的二十億人
03:25
that is struggling奮鬥的 for food餐飲 and shoes,
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爲了食物和鞋子掙扎奮鬥的人們,
03:28
they are still almost幾乎 as poor較差的
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依然和五十年前一樣
03:30
as they were 50 years年份 ago.
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貧窮
03:32
The new thing is that
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新的不同之處是
03:34
we have the biggest最大 pile of billions數十億, the three billions數十億 here,
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在這,有一群很大的有三十億人口,
03:37
which哪一個 are also becoming變得 emerging新興 economies經濟,
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成為新興國家經濟的一員,
03:40
because they are quite相當 healthy健康, relatively相對 well-educated受過良好教育,
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因為他們相當健康、受過相對良好的教育、
03:43
and they already已經 also have two to three children孩子
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平均每個婦女
03:45
per woman女人, as those [richer更豐富 also] have.
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也有兩到三個孩子了
03:48
And their aspiration心願 now
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而現在他們的志願
03:50
is, of course課程, to buy購買 a bicycle自行車,
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當然是買台腳踏車,
03:53
and then later後來 on they would like to have a motorbike摩托車 also.
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在過不久,他們也許會想買一台摩托車
03:56
But this is the world世界
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這就是我們現今
03:59
we have today今天,
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所處的世界,
04:01
no longer any gap間隙.
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再也沒有鴻溝了。
04:03
But the distance距離 from the poorest最窮 here, the very poorest最窮,
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但是,窮人和有錢人
04:06
to the very richest首富 over here is wider更寬的 than ever.
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之間的距離卻比以往還要大了
04:09
But there is a continuous連續 world世界
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這裡有個持續演變的世界
04:11
from walking步行, biking騎自行車,
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從步行,腳踏車,
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driving主動, flying飛行 --
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開車,到坐飛機——
04:15
there are people on all levels水平,
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包含各階段的人
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and most people tend趨向 to be somewhere某處 in the middle中間.
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但大多數人存在於中間某處
04:21
This is the new world世界 we have today今天
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這就是我們今日所處的世界
04:23
in 2010.
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在 2010 年。
04:26
And what will happen發生 in the future未來?
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那麼,未來會發生什麽事呢?
04:30
Well, I'm going to project項目
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我將會預測
04:32
into 2050.
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2050 年的世界。
04:34
I was in Shanghai上海 recently最近,
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最近我去了上海一趟,
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and I listened聽了 to what's happening事件 in China中國,
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我聽到在中國發生的事。
04:39
and it's pretty漂亮 sure that they will catch抓住 up,
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我確信他們會迅速追上,
04:42
just as Japan日本 did.
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就像日本一樣
04:44
All the projections預測 [say that] this one [billion十億] will [only] grow增長 with
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所有的預測——這一區的人口會成長
04:46
one to two or three percent百分.
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1%到3%
04:48
[But this second第二] grows成長 with seven, eight percent百分, and then they will end結束 up here.
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這一區會增長7%、8%,然後停留在這裡,
04:51
They will start開始 flying飛行.
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他們會開始起飛
04:53
And these
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而這些
04:55
lower降低 or middle中間 income收入 countries國家, the emerging新興 income收入 countries國家,
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中低收入國家,也就是新興國家,
04:58
they will also forge鍛造 forwards前鋒 economically經濟.
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也會在經濟上往前進
05:01
And if,
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而且,
05:03
but only if,
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只有在
05:05
we invest投資 in the right green綠色 technology技術 --
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我們正確地投資綠色科技的前提下——
05:08
so that we can avoid避免 severe嚴重 climate氣候 change更改,
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我們才能避免嚴重的氣候變遷問題,
05:10
and energy能源 can still be relatively相對 cheap低廉 --
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能源也可以維持便宜的價格——
05:13
then they will move移動 all the way up here.
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然後,他們才得以進一步移到這裡
05:16
And they will start開始 to buy購買
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接著,他們會開始買
05:18
electric電動 cars汽車.
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電動車。
05:20
This is what we will find there.
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這是我們目前所發現的情況
05:23
So what about the poorest最窮 two billion十億?
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那麼,關於那些最貧窮的二十億人口...
05:25
What about the poorest最窮 two billion十億 here?
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那些最貧窮的二十億人口將會如何呢?
05:28
Will they move移動 on?
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他們會往前進嗎?
05:30
Well, here population人口 [growth發展] comes in
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嗯,這裡加入了新的人口,
05:32
because there [among其中 emerging新興 economies經濟] we already已經 have two to three children孩子 per woman女人,
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在那兒,平均每個女人已經擁有兩、到三個孩子,
05:35
family家庭 planning規劃 is widely廣泛 used,
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在生育計劃的實施下,
05:37
and population人口 growth發展 is coming未來 to an end結束.
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人口成長即將告一段落
05:39
Here [among其中 the poorest最窮], population人口 is growing生長.
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在這裡,人口正在增加,
05:42
So these [poorest最窮] two billion十億 will, in the next下一個 decades幾十年,
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所以,在接下來的二十年中,這二十億人
05:45
increase增加 to three billion十億,
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會增加到三十億
05:47
and they will thereafter其後
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此後,他們又將
05:49
increase增加 to four billion十億.
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成長到四十億
05:51
There is nothing --
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除了核戰之外
05:53
but a nuclear war戰爭 of a kind we've我們已經 never seen看到 --
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沒有其他東西能夠
05:56
that can stop this [growth發展] from happening事件.
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阻止他們人口繼續成長
05:59
Because we already已經 have this [growth發展] in process處理.
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因為這情況已經正在發生
06:02
But if, and only if,
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只有在,
06:04
[the poorest最窮] get out of poverty貧窮,
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他們脫離貧窮的情況下,
06:06
they get education教育, they get improved改善 child兒童 survival生存,
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像是受教育、改善兒童存活率等,
06:08
they can buy購買 a bicycle自行車 and a cell細胞 phone電話 and come [to live生活] here,
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他們才可以買腳踏車、手機,並且來到這,
06:11
then population人口 growth發展
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於是人口的成長
06:13
will stop in 2050.
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才可以在 2050 年時停頓下來。
06:16
We cannot不能 have people on this level水平
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不能有人留在這個階段
06:18
looking for food餐飲 and shoes
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找食物、找鞋子,
06:20
because then we get continued繼續 population人口 growth發展.
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因為如此一來,人口成長將持續擴大。
06:23
And let me show顯示 you why
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讓我透過
06:25
by converting轉換 back to the old-time早年間
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以往的數位科技
06:28
digital數字 technology技術.
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告訴你爲什麽
06:30
Here I have on the screen屏幕
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在螢幕上,我有
06:32
my country國家 bubbles泡泡.
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國家泡泡
06:34
Every一切 bubble泡沫 is a country國家. The size尺寸 is population人口.
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每個泡泡代表國家,尺寸代表人口數量,
06:36
The colors顏色 show顯示 the continent大陸.
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顏色代表不同的大陸區塊
06:38
The yellow黃色 on there is the Americas美洲;
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在那兒,黃色是美洲;
06:40
dark黑暗 blue藍色 is Africa非洲; brown棕色 is Europe歐洲;
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深藍色是非洲;棕色是歐洲;
06:42
green綠色 is the Middle中間 East
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綠色是中東;
06:45
and this light blue藍色 is South Asia亞洲.
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淺藍色是南亞
06:47
That's India印度 and this is China中國. Size尺寸 is population人口.
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那是印度,這是中國。大小代表人口數量
06:49
Here I have children孩子 per woman女人:
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這裡是 每個女人的小孩數目,
06:52
two children孩子, four children孩子, six children孩子, eight children孩子 --
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兩個孩子、四個孩子、六個孩子、八個孩子——
06:54
big families家庭, small families家庭.
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大家庭、小家庭
06:57
The year is 1960.
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這是 1960 年
06:59
And down here, child兒童 survival生存,
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下面這裡是兒童的存活率,
07:01
the percentage百分比 of children孩子 surviving倖存 childhood童年
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自孩提時期一直到上學為止
07:03
up to starting開始 school學校:
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兒童存活的百分比率
07:05
60 percent百分, 70 percent百分, 80 percent百分, 90,
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60%、70%、80%、90%
07:08
and almost幾乎 100 percent百分, as we have today今天
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接近100%,如同我們今天
07:10
in the wealthiest富有 and healthiest健康 countries國家.
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最富裕和最健康國家的比率
07:12
But look, this is the world世界 my teacher老師 talked about in 1960:
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看,這就是我老師在 1960 年所談的世界,
07:15
one billion十億 Western西 world世界 here --
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西方世界有十億人,
07:18
high child-survival兒童生存, small families家庭 --
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高度的兒童存活率,小家庭
07:21
and all the rest休息,
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而其他所有地區,
07:23
the rainbow彩虹 of developing發展 countries國家,
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這些開發中國家的彩虹區域裡,
07:25
with very large families家庭
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都是大家庭
07:27
and poor較差的 child兒童 survival生存.
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和低度的兒童存活率。
07:29
What has happened發生? I start開始 the world世界. Here we go.
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發生了什麽事?來吧,讓這世界開始吧!
07:32
Can you see, as the years年份 pass通過 by, child兒童 survival生存 is increasing增加?
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看到了嗎?隨著年份的推移,兒童存活率上升了
07:35
They get soap肥皂, hygiene衛生, education教育,
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他們有肥皂、衛生、教育、
07:37
vaccination疫苗接種, penicillin青黴素
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疫苗接種、抗生素
07:39
and then family家庭 planning規劃. Family家庭 size尺寸 is decreasing減少.
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接著是家庭計劃,家庭的規模正逐漸縮小,
07:42
[When] they get up to 90-percent-百分 child兒童 survival生存, then families家庭 decrease減少,
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兒童存活率上升至 90%,家庭人口減少,
07:45
and most of the Arab阿拉伯 countries國家 in the Middle中間 East
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大多數的中東阿拉伯國家
07:47
is falling落下 down there [to small families家庭].
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降到下方來
07:49
Look, Bangladesh孟加拉國 catching up with India印度.
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看,孟加拉趕上印度,
07:51
The whole整個 emerging新興 world世界
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整個新興國家世界
07:54
joins加入 the Western西 world世界
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加入了西方世界
07:56
with good child兒童 survival生存
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有了好的兒童存活率
07:58
and small family家庭 size尺寸,
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和小家庭的規模。
08:00
but we still have the poorest最窮 billion十億.
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但,我們仍然有最貧窮的十億人口
08:02
Can you see the poorest最窮 billion十億,
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你們看到最貧困的十億人了嗎?
08:04
those [two] boxes盒子 I had over here?
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在那箱子那邊?
08:07
They are still up here.
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他們仍然在那
08:09
And they still have a child兒童 survival生存
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兒童存活率依然
08:11
of only 70 to 80 percent百分,
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只有70%~80%
08:13
meaning含義 that if you have six children孩子 born天生,
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這意謂著,如果六個孩子出生,
08:15
there will be at least最小 four who survive生存
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至少有四個可以活下來
08:17
to the next下一個 generation.
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成為下一代
08:19
And the population人口 will double in one generation.
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人口數會在一個世代之間成長兩倍
08:22
So the only way
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因此,唯一可以使
08:24
of really getting得到 world世界 population人口 [growth發展] to stop
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世界人口停止成長的方法
08:27
is to continue繼續 to improve提高 child兒童 survival生存
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就是繼續提高兒童的存活率
08:29
to 90 percent百分.
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提高到 90%
08:31
That's why investments投資 by Gates蓋茨 Foundation基礎,
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這就是爲什麽比爾蓋茲基金會、
08:33
UNICEF聯合國兒童基金會 and aid援助 organizations組織,
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聯合國兒童基金會、其他組織、
08:35
together一起 with national國民 government政府 in the poorest最窮 countries國家,
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和最貧窮國家政府的投資
08:37
are so good;
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是不錯的
08:39
because they are actually其實
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因為,他們事實上
08:41
helping幫助 us to reach達到
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幫我們達到
08:43
a sustainable可持續發展 population人口 size尺寸 of the world世界.
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世界人口的永續規模
08:45
We can stop at nine billion十億 if we do the right things.
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如果我們做對的事,可以使人口停在九十億
08:48
Child兒童 survival生存 is the new green綠色.
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兒童存活率是一個新的夢想,
08:51
It's only by child兒童 survival生存
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只有提高兒童存活率,
08:53
that we will stop population人口 growth發展.
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才可以停止人口成長。
08:56
And will it happen發生?
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那再接下來會發生什麽事?
08:58
Well, I'm not an optimist樂天派,
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我不是樂觀的人,
09:01
neither也不 am I a pessimist悲觀主義者.
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也不是悲觀主義者;
09:03
I'm a very serious嚴重 "possibilistpossibilist."
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我是一個「可能主義者」(possibilist)
09:06
It's a new category類別 where we take emotion情感 apart距離,
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這是一個新的類別,在這裡我們拋開情感,
09:09
and we just work analytically解析 with the world世界.
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純粹地分析這個世界
09:11
It can be doneDONE.
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這個問題是可以解決的
09:14
We can have a much more just world世界.
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我們可以擁有一個更公平的世界
09:17
With green綠色 technology技術
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用綠色科技
09:19
and with investments投資 to alleviate緩和 poverty貧窮,
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用投資減緩貧窮
09:21
and global全球 governance治理,
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加上全球治理,
09:23
the world世界 can become成為 like this.
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世界可以變得像這樣
09:25
And look at the position位置 of the old West西.
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看看舊西方西方國家的位置
09:28
Remember記得 when this blue藍色 box was all alone單獨,
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還記得,當這邊只有藍色箱子的時候,
09:31
leading領導 the world世界, living活的 its own擁有 life.
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領導全世界,過自己的生活
09:34
This will not happen發生 [again].
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這不會再發生了。
09:36
The role角色 of the old West西 in the new world世界
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過去西方世界的角色,在新的世界裡
09:39
is to become成為 the foundation基礎
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會成為現代社會的
09:41
of the modern現代 world世界 --
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基礎——
09:43
nothing more, nothing less.
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不多不少剛剛好
09:45
But it's a very important重要 role角色.
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但他是個非常重要的角色
09:47
Do it well and get used to it.
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把事情做好,適應這個角色
09:49
Thank you very much.
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謝謝大家。
09:51
(Applause掌聲)
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(掌聲)
Translated by Geoff Chen
Reviewed by Adrienne Lin

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hans Rosling - Global health expert; data visionary
In Hans Rosling’s hands, data sings. Global trends in health and economics come to vivid life. And the big picture of global development—with some surprisingly good news—snaps into sharp focus.

Why you should listen

Even the most worldly and well-traveled among us have had their perspectives shifted by Hans Rosling. A professor of global health at Sweden's Karolinska Institute, his work focused on dispelling common myths about the so-called developing world, which (as he pointed out) is no longer worlds away from the West. In fact, most of the Third World is on the same trajectory toward health and prosperity, and many countries are moving twice as fast as the west did.

What set Rosling apart wasn't just his apt observations of broad social and economic trends, but the stunning way he presented them. Guaranteed: You've never seen data presented like this. A presentation that tracks global health and poverty trends should be, in a word: boring. But in Rosling's hands, data sings. Trends come to life. And the big picture — usually hazy at best — snaps into sharp focus.

Rosling's presentations were grounded in solid statistics (often drawn from United Nations and World Bank data), illustrated by the visualization software he developed. The animations transform development statistics into moving bubbles and flowing curves that make global trends clear, intuitive and even playful. During his legendary presentations, Rosling took this one step farther, narrating the animations with a sportscaster's flair.

Rosling developed the breakthrough software behind his visualizations through his nonprofit Gapminder, founded with his son and daughter-in-law. The free software — which can be loaded with any data — was purchased by Google in March 2007. (Rosling met the Google founders at TED.)

Rosling began his wide-ranging career as a physician, spending many years in rural Africa tracking a rare paralytic disease (which he named konzo) and discovering its cause: hunger and badly processed cassava. He co-founded Médecins sans Frontièrs (Doctors without Borders) Sweden, wrote a textbook on global health, and as a professor at the Karolinska Institut in Stockholm initiated key international research collaborations. He's also personally argued with many heads of state, including Fidel Castro.

Hans Rosling passed away in February 2017. He is greatly missed.


More profile about the speaker
Hans Rosling | Speaker | TED.com