ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Cobley - Online marketing whiz
Dan Cobley is a marketing director at Google, where he connects customers and businesses, helping both navigate digital space to find what they need.

Why you should listen
In 2006, Dan Cobley was appointed director of marketing at Google for central and northern Europe. He shows customers the best way to use Google products to find the information and services they’re searching for, while working with businesses to demonstrate how a search engine can help them find interested customers.

Before Google, Cobley was the vice president of branding and marketing for Capital One and the marketing director of Ask Jeeves. He’s worked in both the UK and US, but always in marketing although his first degree from Oxford is in physics.  
More profile about the speaker
Dan Cobley | Speaker | TED.com
TEDGlobal 2010

Dan Cobley: What physics taught me about marketing

丹‧柯布利: 物理教我有關行銷的事

Filmed:
1,583,922 views

物理和行銷,乍看來無啥共同點,但丹‧柯布利對兩者都充滿熱情。他把看似南轅北轍的兩者結合起來,運用牛頓的第二定律、海森堡的不定原理、科學方法和熱力學第二定律,說明品牌經營的基本理論。
- Online marketing whiz
Dan Cobley is a marketing director at Google, where he connects customers and businesses, helping both navigate digital space to find what they need. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:16
So I work in marketing營銷, which哪一個 I love,
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我的工作是行銷,我也樂在其中。
00:18
but my first passion was physics物理,
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而物理是我最初的摯愛。
00:21
a passion brought to me by a wonderful精彩 school學校 teacher老師,
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當年在學校裏,有個很棒的老師,他燃起了我對物理的熱情,
00:24
when I had a little less gray灰色 hair頭髮.
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當年的我,沒這麼多白頭髮。
00:27
So he taught me
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他告訴我,
00:29
that physics物理 is cool
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物理很酷,
00:31
because it teaches us so much about the world世界 around us.
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它教我們很多有關這個世界的事。
00:33
And I'm going to spend the next下一個 few少數 minutes分鐘 trying to convince說服 you
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接下來的幾分鐘裏,我要讓各位相信,
00:36
that physics物理 can teach us something about marketing營銷.
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物理其實可以教我們一些有關行銷的事。
00:39
So quick show顯示 of hands --
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我先做個小調查,
00:41
who studied研究 some marketing營銷 in university大學?
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這裏有人在大學裏修過行銷嗎?
00:43
Who studied研究 some physics物理 in university大學?
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有人在大學裏修過物理嗎?
00:45
Pretty漂亮 good. And at school學校?
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噢,還不錯。中學的時候呢?
00:47
Okay, lots of you.
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好,看來還不少。
00:49
So, hopefully希望 this will bring帶來 back some happy快樂,
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那麼,希望這能讓你們回想起一些快樂的,
00:51
or possibly或者 some slightly disturbing煩擾的 memories回憶.
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或是讓人感到有點混亂的往事。
00:54
So, physics物理 and marketing營銷.
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好的,物理和行銷:
00:58
We'll start開始 with something very simple簡單 -- Newton's牛頓 Law:
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我們先從簡單的開始,先看牛頓定律:
01:00
"The force equals等於 mass times acceleration促進."
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力等於質量乘以加速度
01:03
This is something that perhaps也許 Turkish土耳其 Airlines航空公司
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土耳其航空也許應該
01:05
should have studied研究 a bit more carefully小心
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先好好地學學這個定律,
01:08
before they ran this campaign運動.
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然後再推出這個行銷活動。
01:10
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
01:13
But if we rearrange改編 this formula quickly很快,
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如果我們很快地重組這個方程式,
01:16
we can get to acceleration促進 equals等於 force over mass,
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我們可以得出,加速度等於力除以質量,
01:19
which哪一個 means手段
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也就是說
01:21
that for a larger particle粒子 -- a larger mass --
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對質量比較大的物體而言,
01:24
it requires要求 more force to change更改 its direction方向.
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要改變它的方向,需要更大的力。
01:28
It's the same相同 with brands品牌:
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品牌也是一樣的 。
01:30
the more massive大規模的 a brand, the more baggage行李 it has,
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愈是重量級的品牌,包袱也愈重。
01:33
the more force is needed需要 to change更改 its positioning定位.
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所以就會需要更大的力,才能改變它的行銷定位。
01:36
And that's one of the reasons原因 why
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這就是為什麼
01:38
Arthur亞瑟 Andersen安德森 chose選擇 to launch發射 Accenture埃森哲
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亞瑟‧安德森(Arthur Andersen)選擇創立埃森哲(Accenture)公司,
01:41
rather than try to persuade說服 the world世界
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因為他不想費力要大家相信,
01:43
that Andersen's安徒生 could stand for something
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安德森(Andersen)這塊招牌
01:45
other than accountancy會計.
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代表的不只是會計專業。
01:47
It explains說明 why Hoover胡佛
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這也是為什麼胡佛(Hoover)公司發現
01:49
found發現 it very difficult to persuade說服 the world世界
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要說服大家,胡佛不只賣吸塵器
01:51
that it was more than vacuum真空 cleaners清潔工,
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不太容易。
01:53
and why companies公司 like Unilever聯合利華 and P&G
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還有,像聯合利華(Unilever )和寶鹼(P&G)這些公司
01:56
keep brands品牌 separate分離,
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選擇保有獨立的品牌,
01:58
like Ariel阿里爾 and Pringles品客薯片 and Dove鴿子
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奧力奧(Oreo)、品客(Pringle)和多芬(Dove)也是一樣,
02:01
rather than having one giant巨人 parent brand.
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這些公司都不想經營一個大型的統一品牌。
02:05
So the physics物理 is that the bigger the mass of an object目的
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所以啦,物理定律說,物體質量愈大,
02:08
the more force is needed需要
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就需要愈大的力量,
02:10
to change更改 its direction方向.
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才能改變物體行進的方向。
02:12
The marketing營銷 is, the bigger a brand,
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行銷也是如此,品牌愈大
02:14
the more difficult it is to reposition復位 it.
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重新定位就愈難。
02:16
So think about a portfolio投資組合 of brands品牌
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所以不妨考慮經營一組品牌
02:18
or maybe new brands品牌 for new ventures企業.
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或為新事業建立新的品牌。
02:21
Now, who remembers記得 Heisenberg's海森堡 uncertainty不確定 principle原理?
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現在我問一下,有誰記得海森堡(Heisenberg)的不定原理?
02:24
Getting入門 a little more technical技術 now.
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這個技術含量稍微高一點。
02:26
So this says that
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這個原理是說
02:28
it's impossible不可能, by definition定義,
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根據定義,我們不可能
02:30
to measure測量 exactly究竟 the state -- i.e., the position位置 --
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準確測量粒子的狀態,例如
02:32
and the momentum動量 of a particle粒子,
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位置和動能,
02:34
because the act法案 of measuring測量 it, by definition定義, changes變化 it.
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因為根據定義,測量行為本身,就會改變粒子的狀態。
02:37
So to explain說明 that -- if you've got an elementary初級 particle粒子
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意思就是說,假設有一個基本粒子
02:39
and you shine閃耀 a light on it,
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你拿光照它,
02:41
then the photon光子 of light has momentum動量,
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這個光的光子會有動能,
02:44
which哪一個 knocks敲門 the particle粒子,
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和粒子會發生碰撞。
02:47
so you don't know where it was before you looked看著 at it.
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所以你不知道,在你看它之前,它在什麼位置。
02:50
By measuring測量 it,
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測量的同時,
02:52
the act法案 of measurement測量 changes變化 it.
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測量的動作會改變它。
02:54
The act法案 of observation意見 changes變化 it.
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觀察的行為會改變它。
02:56
It's the same相同 in marketing營銷.
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這和行銷的道理是一樣的。
02:58
So with the act法案 of observing觀察 consumers消費者, changes變化 their behavior行為.
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觀察消費者的動作,會改變消費者的行為。
03:01
Think about the group of moms媽媽
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假設有一群媽媽
03:04
who are talking about their wonderful精彩 children孩子 in a focus焦點 group,
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在焦點團體裏討論她們的小孩有多棒,
03:07
and almost幾乎 none沒有 of them buy購買 lots of junk破爛 food餐飲.
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而這些媽媽都買很多垃圾食物。
03:10
And yet然而, McDonald's麥當勞 sells塞爾斯 hundreds數以百計 of millions百萬 of burgers漢堡 every一切 year.
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所以,麥當勞每年才會賣出幾百萬個漢堡。
03:13
Think about the people who are on accompanied伴隨著 shops商店 in supermarkets超級市場,
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再假設有一群人,由訪員陪同,在超市購物,
03:16
who stuff東東 their trolleys手推車
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他們往推車裏塞滿
03:18
full充分 of fresh新鮮 green綠色 vegetables蔬菜 and fruit水果,
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新鮮的綠色蔬菜和水果,
03:20
but don't shop like that any other day.
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但他們平常買東西的時候,可不像這樣。
03:23
And if you think about the number of people
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想想看,會在意見調查中
03:25
who claim要求 in surveys調查
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宣稱自己
03:27
to regularly經常 look for pornA片 on the Web捲筒紙,
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經常上網搜尋色情圖片、影片(porn)的人數,
03:29
it's very few少數.
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是很少的。
03:31
Yet然而, at Google谷歌, we know it's the number-one第一 searched搜索 for category類別.
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不過,我們知道Google搜尋榜上,第一名就是porn。
03:35
So luckily, the science科學 --
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幸運的是,科學--
03:37
no, sorry -- the marketing營銷 is getting得到 easier更輕鬆.
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不好意思--是行銷,變得比較簡單了。
03:40
Luckily, with now better point-of-sale銷售點 tracking追踪,
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我們現在很幸運,有更好的銷售時點(POS)追蹤系統,
03:43
more digital數字 media媒體 consumption消費,
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更多的數位媒體消費,
03:45
you can measure測量 more what consumers消費者 actually其實 do,
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你可以測量消費者的實際行為,
03:48
rather than what they say they do.
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而不只是聽他們說他們做了什麼。
03:50
So the physics物理 is
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物理學上說,
03:52
you can never accurately準確 and exactly究竟
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你永遠不可能確實、精準地
03:54
measure測量 a particle粒子,
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測量一個粒子,
03:56
because the observation意見 changes變化 it.
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因為觀察本身就會改變它。
03:58
The marketing營銷 is -- the message信息 for marketing營銷 is --
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就行銷而言,應用在行銷上,則是
04:01
that try to measure測量 what consumers消費者 actually其實 do,
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要測量消費者的實際行為,
04:04
rather than what they say they'll他們會 do
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而不是只聽他們說他們會怎麼做
04:06
or anticipate預料 they'll他們會 do.
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或預期他們會怎麼做。
04:09
So next下一個, the scientific科學 method方法 --
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接著,我們來看科學方法,
04:12
an axiom公理 of physics物理, of all science科學 --
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這是物理學乃至所有科學的原理--
04:14
says you cannot不能 prove證明 a hypothesis假設 through通過 observation意見,
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你不能靠觀察來證明一項假說。
04:16
you can only disprove駁斥 it.
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你只能反證它。
04:18
What this means手段 is you can gather收集 more and more data數據
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這個意思是,你可以收集很多很多的資料,
04:21
around a hypothesis假設 or a positioning定位,
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來支持一項假說或定位,
04:23
and it will strengthen加強 it, but it will not conclusively確鑿 prove證明 it.
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不過這只能強化它,而沒辦法完全的證明。
04:26
And only one contrary相反 data數據 point
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但只要一個反面的資料,
04:28
can blow打擊 your theory理論 out of the water.
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就能打倒你的理論。
04:31
So if we take an example --
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我們舉個例子--
04:33
Ptolemy托勒密 had dozens許多 of data數據 points to support支持 his theory理論
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托勒密(Ptolemy)有很多資料來支持他的理論,
04:36
that the planets行星 would rotate迴轉 around the Earth地球.
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也就是,行星是繞著地球運轉。
04:39
It only took one robust強大的 observation意見 from Copernicus哥白尼
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但哥白尼一個有力的觀察結果,
04:42
to blow打擊 that idea理念 out of the water.
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就把他的理論打得落花流水。
04:45
And there are parallels相似之處 for marketing營銷 --
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行銷上也有這樣的例子。
04:47
you can invest投資 for a long time in a brand,
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你可以在一個品牌上投入很多的時間經營,
04:50
but a single contrary相反 observation意見 of that positioning定位
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但只要有一個和品牌定位相反的事件,
04:52
will destroy破壞 consumers'消費者 belief信仰.
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就足以擊潰消費者的信心。
04:55
Take BPBP --
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拿英國石油(BP)為例。
04:57
they spent花費 millions百萬 of pounds英鎊 over many許多 years年份
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他們在幾年內,花了幾百萬英磅
04:59
building建造 up its credentials證書 as an environmentally環保 friendly友善 brand,
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營造一個愛護環境的品牌形象,
05:02
but then one little accident事故.
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然後,發生了這麼一個小意外。
05:05
Think about Toyota豐田.
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再看看Toyota。
05:07
It was, for a long time, revered尊敬
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長久以來,它是受人尊崇,
05:09
as the most reliable可靠 of cars汽車,
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最值得信賴的汽車,
05:11
and then they had the big recall召回 incident事件.
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然後,發生了一次大規模的回收事件。
05:14
And Tiger Woods樹木, for a long time,
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還有老虎伍茲,他向來是
05:16
the perfect完善 brand ambassador大使.
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最完美的品牌大使。
05:18
Well, you know the story故事.
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然後,你們都知道發生了什麼事。
05:20
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
05:26
So the physics物理 is
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這就是物理學說的,
05:28
that you cannot不能 prove證明 a hypothesis假設,
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你無法證明一個假說,
05:30
but it's easy簡單 to disprove駁斥 it --
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但要反證它卻很容易。
05:32
any hypothesis假設 is shaky搖搖欲墜.
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任何假說都不可靠。
05:34
And the marketing營銷 is
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在行銷上,就是
05:36
that not matter how much you've invested投資 in your brand,
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不管你在品牌經營上投注多少心力,
05:39
one bad week can undermine破壞 decades幾十年 of good work.
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只要一個處理不好,可能就會讓數十年的努力白費。
05:42
So be really careful小心 to try and avoid避免 the screw-ups螺絲起坐
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所以,一定要小心避免這類狀況的發生,
05:44
that can undermine破壞 your brand.
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讓你的品牌受到傷害。
05:47
And lastly最後, to the slightly obscure朦朧 world世界 of entropy --
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最後,來談談不太好懂的「熵」,
05:50
the second第二 law of thermodynamics熱力學.
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熱力學第二定律。
05:52
This says that entropy,
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定律說,「熵」,
05:54
which哪一個 is a measure測量 of the disorder紊亂 of a system系統,
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也就是系統中的混亂程度
05:56
will always increase增加.
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會一直增加。
05:58
The same相同 is true真正 of marketing營銷.
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這在行銷上也同樣適用。
06:00
If we go back 20 years年份,
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回到20年前,
06:02
the one message信息 pretty漂亮 much controlled受控 by one marketing營銷 manager經理
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一個訊息,幾乎可以由一個行銷經理來掌握,
06:05
could pretty漂亮 much define確定 a brand.
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而這個訊息,幾乎就能定義一個品牌。
06:08
But where we are today今天, things have changed.
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但現在已經不再是這樣了。
06:11
You can get a strong強大 brand image圖片
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你可以有一個很有力的品牌形象,
06:13
or a message信息
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或一個訊息,
06:15
and put it out there like the Conservative保守 Party派對 did
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然後把它發送出去,就像英國保守黨
06:17
earlier this year with their election選舉 poster海報.
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前一陣子張貼競選海報的作法一樣。
06:20
But then you lose失去 control控制 of it.
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但之後你就控制不了了。
06:23
With the kind of digital數字 comment評論 creation創建 and distribution分配 tools工具
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現在有各式各樣製造和發送意見的工具,
06:26
that are available可得到 now to every一切 consumer消費者,
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每個消費者都能使用,
06:29
it's impossible不可能 to control控制 where it goes.
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要控制訊息已經不可能了。
06:32
Your brand starts啟動 being存在 dispersed分散,
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你的品牌開始失焦。
06:34
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
06:36
it gets得到 more chaotic混亂的.
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開始變得混亂。
06:38
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
06:40
It's out of your control控制.
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你沒辦法控制。
06:42
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
06:47
I actually其實 saw him speak說話 -- he did a good job工作.
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我親自看過他的演說。他其實表現得不錯。
06:49
But while this may可能 be unsettling惴惴 for marketers營銷,
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雖然這或許會讓行銷人員感到不安,
06:51
it's actually其實 a good thing.
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但這未嘗不是好事。
06:53
This distribution分配 of brand energy能源
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品牌能量的散佈,
06:55
gets得到 your brand closer接近 to the people,
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能讓你的品牌更貼近一般人,
06:57
more in with the people.
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更深入人心。
06:59
It makes品牌 this distribution分配 of energy能源 a democratizing民主化 force,
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能量的分散,是一個民主化的力量,
07:02
which哪一個 is ultimately最終 good for your brand.
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最終對你的品牌有益。
07:05
So, the lesson from physics物理 is
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所以,物理學教我們的是
07:07
that entropy will always increase增加; it's a fundamental基本的 law.
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熵會一直增加,這是基本原理。
07:10
The message信息 for marketing營銷 is that your brand is more dispersed分散.
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應用在行銷上,就是你的品牌能量會變得更分散。
07:13
You can't fight鬥爭 it, so embrace擁抱 it
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你既然沒辦法對抗它,那就擁抱它,
07:15
and find a way to work with it.
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找到和它共處的方法。
07:18
So to close,
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結論是,
07:20
my teacher老師, Mr先生. VutterVutter, told me
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就像我的老師威特先生告訴我的,
07:22
that physics物理 is cool,
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物理很酷,
07:24
and hopefully希望, I've convinced相信 you
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還有呢,希望各位都同意,
07:26
that physics物理 can teach all of us, even in the world世界 of marketing營銷, something special特別.
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物理可以教我們一些特別的事,甚至是行銷世界裏的事。
07:29
Thank you.
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謝謝大家。
07:31
(Applause掌聲)
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(掌聲)
Translated by HJ Liao
Reviewed by Lin Su-Wei()

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Cobley - Online marketing whiz
Dan Cobley is a marketing director at Google, where he connects customers and businesses, helping both navigate digital space to find what they need.

Why you should listen
In 2006, Dan Cobley was appointed director of marketing at Google for central and northern Europe. He shows customers the best way to use Google products to find the information and services they’re searching for, while working with businesses to demonstrate how a search engine can help them find interested customers.

Before Google, Cobley was the vice president of branding and marketing for Capital One and the marketing director of Ask Jeeves. He’s worked in both the UK and US, but always in marketing although his first degree from Oxford is in physics.  
More profile about the speaker
Dan Cobley | Speaker | TED.com