We the Future
Johan Rockström: 5 transformational policies for a prosperous and sustainable world
约翰·罗克斯特伦: 5项变革策略建立一个繁荣和可持续的世界
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这场演讲有关如何在不破坏地球的情况下建设一个强大未来。可持续发展专家约翰·罗克斯特伦首次介绍了地球-3模型——一种将联合国可持续发展目标与9个地球界限相结合的方法论；超过地球界限，地球的重要系统就会变得不稳定。观看演讲来了解五项转型政策，有助于我们实现包容和繁荣的世界发展，同时保持地球的稳定和弹性。
Johan Rockstrom - Sustainability expert
Johan Rockström works to redefine sustainable development, and figure out what needs to happen. Full bio
Johan Rockström works to redefine sustainable development, and figure out what needs to happen. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
In 2015, we saw two fantastic,
hopeful breakthroughs for humanity.
hopeful breakthroughs for humanity.
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2015年，我们看到了人类两大奇妙、
充满希望的突破。
充满希望的突破。
00:17
First, the adoption of
the Sustainable Development Goals,
the Sustainable Development Goals,
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首先是对“可持续发展目标”的采用，
00:21
the collective, universal
plan for humanity
plan for humanity
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这是在全球环境目标范围内，
00:24
to eradicate hunger,
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根除饥饿、
00:25
[promote] good economic
development and good health,
development and good health,
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促进经济增长和提升健康水平的
人类普世计划。
00:27
within global environmental targets.
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00:29
Secondly, after 21 years of negotiations,
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第二，在经过21年的谈判后，
00:32
we adopted the legally binding
Paris Agreement,
Paris Agreement,
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我们通过了具有法律约束力的
《巴黎协定》，
《巴黎协定》，
00:35
all nations in the world keeping
global warming under two degrees Celsius,
global warming under two degrees Celsius,
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旨在全球所有国家都将全球变暖
控制在2摄氏度以内，
控制在2摄氏度以内，
并以1.5摄氏度为目标。
00:39
aiming at 1.5 degrees Celsius.
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如今，3年过去了，
我们仍在做鼓吹的表面功夫。
我们仍在做鼓吹的表面功夫。
00:41
Today, three years down the line,
we're still in the hand-waving business.
we're still in the hand-waving business.
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00:47
Now, I think it's time
to step back one step
to step back one step
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现在，我认为是时候后退一步，
00:50
and recognize that I wonder if the world
leaders really knew what they signed
leaders really knew what they signed
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并认识到世界领导人是否
真正知道他们三年前
真正知道他们三年前
在联合国大会上签署的协定。
00:54
at the General Assembly three years ago.
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00:57
These are universal, aspirational,
transformational goals
transformational goals
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这些普世的，有抱负的，
具变革意义的目标
具变革意义的目标
01:00
for inclusive, prosperous humanity
on a stable earth system.
on a stable earth system.
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旨在稳定的地球系统上
实现一个包容且繁荣的全人类。
实现一个包容且繁荣的全人类。
01:05
But there are underlying problems.
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但也存在一些潜在问题。
01:07
We have inherent contradictions
between these goals,
between these goals,
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这些目标之间存在固有矛盾，
存在牺牲一些目标来
青睐其他目标的风险。
青睐其他目标的风险。
01:11
where there's the risk of pursuing
one favored goal at the expense of others.
one favored goal at the expense of others.
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01:16
Take, for example, Goal 8,
on decent work and economic growth.
on decent work and economic growth.
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例如，目标8
有关体面工作和经济增长。
有关体面工作和经济增长。
01:19
If we continue doing that
by exploiting natural resources
by exploiting natural resources
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为了达到它，如果我们持续
开采自然资源
开采自然资源
01:22
and burning fossil fuels,
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和燃烧化石燃料，
01:23
it will be impossible to reach Goal 13.
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就没可能达到目标13。
01:26
Three years down the line,
we simply must admit
we simply must admit
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三年下来，我们必须承认
01:29
we're seeing limited action
to really, really address this
to really, really address this
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在这个包容的、集体的和普世的
一揽子计划上的成就所见甚少。
01:33
as an inclusive, collective,
universal package.
universal package.
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01:37
Now, this requires us
to step back one step.
to step back one step.
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现在，需要我们后退一步。
01:40
I think we have to ask ourselves
some hard questions:
some hard questions:
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我觉得我们得问自己一些
棘手的问题：
棘手的问题：
01:43
Do we have any chance of accomplishing
the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030?
the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030?
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我们有任何机会在2030年
完成“可持续发展目标”吗？
完成“可持续发展目标”吗？
01:49
Are there actually inherent trade-offs
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是否存在与当前发展模式
01:50
that are not compatible
with our current development paradigm?
with our current development paradigm?
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不兼容的固有权衡？
01:55
But are there, perhaps, synergies
where we can really accelerate change?
where we can really accelerate change?
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是否存在协同效应，
让我们可以真正加速变革？
让我们可以真正加速变革？
01:58
And is it really a people-planet agenda,
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真有一个“人类与地球”的议程，
02:01
really taking seriously
the social and economic aspirational goals
the social and economic aspirational goals
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在地球维生系统中
严肃对待这些有抱负的
社会和经济目标吗？
社会和经济目标吗？
02:06
within the life-support systems on earth?
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02:10
Now, citizens across the world
have started to recognize
have started to recognize
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现在，全球人民开始认识到
02:13
that we're facing global
rising environmental risks;
rising environmental risks;
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我们面临着全球不断增加的
环境风险；
环境风险；
02:16
in fact, that a stable planet
is a prerequisite
is a prerequisite
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事实上，一个稳定的行星
02:19
to have good human well-being on earth.
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人类幸福的先决条件。
02:22
We need to define a safe operating space
on a stable earth system,
on a stable earth system,
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我们需要在稳定的地球系统上
定义一个安全的运行空间，
定义一个安全的运行空间，
02:27
and the planetary boundary
framework was introduced
framework was introduced
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2009年，科学界引入了
02:30
by the scientific community in 2009
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地球界限
正是基于这个目的。
02:32
to do exactly that.
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02:34
It has now been widely embraced
across the world
across the world
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它作为人类世的可持续发展框架
02:37
in policy, business and communities
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已经被全球各地
02:39
as a framework for sustainable development
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的政策，商业和社区
02:42
in the Anthropocene.
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广泛接受。
02:43
This slide really shows the framework
with the nine environmental processes
with the nine environmental processes
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这张幻灯片展示了这个框架，
其中有九个环境进程，
其中有九个环境进程，
02:49
that regulate the stability
of the earth system,
of the earth system,
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他们调节地球系统的稳定性
并提供一个安全的工作空间，
02:51
providing a safe operating space,
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02:53
where we'll have a high chance
of having good human well-being
of having good human well-being
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届时，我们将有很大机会
拥有良好的人类福祉，
拥有良好的人类福祉，
02:57
and prosperity and equity.
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繁荣和公平。
02:58
If we move into the yellow zone,
we enter a dangerous uncertainty zone;
we enter a dangerous uncertainty zone;
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如果我们进入黄色区，我们就
进入了一个危险的不稳定区；
进入了一个危险的不稳定区；
03:02
and into the red, we have a high
likelihood of crossing tipping points
likelihood of crossing tipping points
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进入红色区，
我们很有可能越过临界点，
我们很有可能越过临界点，
03:06
that could take us irreversibly away
from the ability of the earth system
from the ability of the earth system
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让我们不可逆转地失去地球系统
为人类提供社会和经济福利的能力。
03:10
to provide social and economic
well-being for humanity.
well-being for humanity.
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03:15
Now, we can today, scientifically,
quantify these boundaries,
quantify these boundaries,
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现在，我们今天可以
科学地量化这些边界，
科学地量化这些边界，
03:20
providing us a stable
earth system for humanity.
earth system for humanity.
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为我们人类提供稳定的地球系统。
03:24
But we have to go beyond this
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但我们需要超越这点
03:25
and recognize the Sustainable
Development Goals --
Development Goals --
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并认识到“可持续发展目标”——
03:28
if we really want
to seriously accomplish them --
to seriously accomplish them --
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如果真的想要严肃地实现它们——
03:30
must now occur within
this safe operating space.
this safe operating space.
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现在必须在
这个安全的运行空间内进行。
这个安全的运行空间内进行。
我们必须在地球界限内
实现可持续发展目标。
实现可持续发展目标。
03:33
We need to achieve SDGs within PBs.
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03:38
But dear friends, not even this is enough.
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但亲爱的朋友，这还不够。
03:41
We need to recognize
that the Sustainable Development Goals
that the Sustainable Development Goals
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我们需要认识到“可持续发展目标”
03:43
is 12 years away.
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离达成预期只有十二年。
03:45
It's only a milestone.
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这只是一个里程杯而已。
03:47
It is the bull's-eye
that we need to go through
that we need to go through
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这是我们需要到达的靶心，
03:50
and zoom ourselves towards transformations
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我们继续加快向变革前进，
这样我们才可以在2050年及以后，
在稳定的地球系统中
在稳定的地球系统中
03:53
where we can have a good future
for all co-citizens on earth,
for all co-citizens on earth,
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03:56
nine billion plus,
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为地球上的90亿公民
创造一个美好的未来。
03:58
within a stable earth system
in 2050 and beyond.
in 2050 and beyond.
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04:02
This is a quest,
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这是一个探索，
04:04
and in order to really explore this
and not have only opinions about it,
and not have only opinions about it,
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为了真正去探索
而不只是光说不练，
而不只是光说不练，
我们聚集了科学界
最好的思想者和建模家
最好的思想者和建模家
04:07
we gathered the scientific community,
the best thinkers and modelers
the best thinkers and modelers
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04:11
and started to develop a completely
new complex systems dynamic model,
new complex systems dynamic model,
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开始开发一套全新的
复杂系统动态模型，
复杂系统动态模型，
04:14
the Earth-3 model,
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地球-3模型，
基于在已经存在50年的模型。
04:16
building on models that have been around
for the last 50 years.
for the last 50 years.
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04:20
And here it is.
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就是这个。
04:22
This is a fantastic piece of work.
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这真是一个了不起的工作。
04:25
This has a climate module, a biosphere
module, a global economic model;
module, a global economic model;
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它有气候模型，生物圈模型，
全球经济模型；
全球经济模型；
04:29
it has algorithms, it has the whole room
of fantastic accomplishments.
of fantastic accomplishments.
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它有算法，它就是一个神奇的成就。
04:34
This is what turns us scientists on.
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这就是科学家为之高潮的东西。
04:36
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
04:37
I mean, this is just
a beautiful piece of work?
a beautiful piece of work?
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我的意思是，这是一件漂亮的作品。
04:39
And I'd just love to spend the whole
evening walking this through with you,
evening walking this through with you,
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我很乐意花整个晚上
带领大家了解它，
带领大家了解它，
04:43
but I'll make you disappointed.
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但我恐怕要让你们失望了。
04:45
I cannot do that.
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我不能这样。
04:47
In fact, the only thing I can do with you
is just to assure you
is just to assure you
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事实上，我现在可以做的
只是向你们保证
只是向你们保证
04:50
that this is the first time it's done.
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这是前所未有的。
04:52
Nobody has ever tried
to really analytically combine
to really analytically combine
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没人尝试过真正结合分析
“可持续发展目标”和地球界限。
04:55
the Sustainable Development Goals
with planetary boundaries.
with planetary boundaries.
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我们能够找到趋同趋势，
04:58
And we were able to find patterns
and really convergent trends
and really convergent trends
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让我们对自己有信心，
相信我们有能力预测
相信我们有能力预测
05:04
that gives us a lot of confidence
in our ability to now project
in our ability to now project
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05:08
economic development,
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经济发展，
05:09
resources use from water, food and energy,
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水资源，食物和能源资源的使用，
05:12
population growth, income per person,
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人口增长和人均收入，
05:14
yet along these consistent
and systemic pathways.
and systemic pathways.
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并仍保持一致性和系统性。
05:18
So, it's the first time we have
a robust opportunity
a robust opportunity
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所以，首次我们有了一个机遇
05:21
to really explore the futures of ability
of attaining the SDGs within PBs.
of attaining the SDGs within PBs.
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去真正探索在地球界限内
取得可持续发展的未来。
取得可持续发展的未来。
05:26
Now, how do we do this?
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那么，我们如何做到这点？
05:27
Well, look at this.
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看看这个。
这里有来自真实世界
05:28
Here, you have the data
coming from the real world,
coming from the real world,
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05:32
calibrated from 1970-2015:
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1970-2015年的校准数据：
05:34
100,000 data points around the world,
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全球10万个数据点，
发现7个区域有能力
05:37
building on seven regions' ability,
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处理所有可持续发展目标。
05:40
of really picking on all these
Sustainable Development Goals.
Sustainable Development Goals.
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05:43
Now, one example of how
we calibrated this,
we calibrated this,
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现在，举个我们如何校准的例子，
05:45
here you have [data] for
Sustainable Development Goals
Sustainable Development Goals
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这里有消除贫困、健康、教育和粮食
可持续发展目标的数据。
05:47
on eradicating poverty, health,
education and food.
education and food.
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这里的气泡图是世界的七个区域，
05:51
And here you have in the bubbles
the seven regions of the world,
the seven regions of the world,
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这些是至2015年的走势，
基于我们对
基于我们对
05:55
how they move up until 2015
in our empirical observations
in our empirical observations
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05:59
in relation to GDP per capita,
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人均GDP的观察，
给出了这些普遍的收敛趋势，
06:02
giving these universal convergent trends,
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我们可以由此创造回归模型
06:04
which enabled us to create regressions
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06:07
that could make us able to do
simulations into the future,
simulations into the future,
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使我们能够对未来进行模拟，
06:11
all the way until 2050,
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直到2050年，
展示了实现可持续发展目标的能力。
06:13
showing the ability along
the lines here to attain the SDGs.
the lines here to attain the SDGs.
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06:18
Now, this gave us the opportunity
of doing several scenarios,
of doing several scenarios,
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现在，这让我们可以去
模拟几个场景，
模拟几个场景，
06:23
testing different possible futures:
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测试不同可能的未来：
06:25
business as usual, global transformations,
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一切如常，全球变革，
商业的投资计划，
不同的治理选择，
不同的治理选择，
06:28
investment schemes in business,
different governance options,
different governance options,
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06:31
policies, finance --
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政策，金融——
06:34
really, to explore what
the future can look like
the future can look like
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真正地去探索未知的未来
当我们拥有在地球界限内
可持续发展的能力。
可持续发展的能力。
06:37
in our ability to attain
the SDGs within PBs.
the SDGs within PBs.
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06:40
And the results, I can tell you,
really surprised us.
really surprised us.
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结果，我可以告诉你们，
十分惊人。
十分惊人。
06:43
And this will be
the first time it's shown.
the first time it's shown.
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这将是它第一次被展示。
06:45
It should actually not even
be referenced outside of this room.
be referenced outside of this room.
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它甚至不应该在这个房间外被引用。
06:49
Now, it actually is presented
along two axes.
along two axes.
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它其实是以两个坐标轴而展示的。
06:52
The y-axis here shows our ability
to stay within planetary boundaries.
to stay within planetary boundaries.
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Y轴展示我们保持在地球界限内的能力。
06:56
The higher up, the closer you are
to the safe operating space.
to the safe operating space.
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越高，我们离安全运行空间越近。
07:00
On the x-axis are
the Sustainable Development Goals;
the Sustainable Development Goals;
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X轴是可持续发展目标；
越向右代表
我们满足更多可持续发展目标。
我们满足更多可持续发展目标。
07:03
the further to the right,
the more of the SDGs we fulfill.
the more of the SDGs we fulfill.
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我们都想要待在右上角，
07:06
We all want to be in
the upper right-hand corner,
the upper right-hand corner,
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07:08
the safe and just world for the future.
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那是一个在未来的
安全公正的世界。
安全公正的世界。
现在，你看到的点是1980年。
07:11
Now, the point you see there is 1980.
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07:14
We were in a situation where we actually
were in a safe operating space
were in a safe operating space
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那个时候我们处在
一个安全运行的空间，
一个安全运行的空间，
07:17
but not meeting so many of the SDGs.
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但没能实现太多的可持续发展目标。
07:19
Here's the trend up until 2015.
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这是2015年之前的趋势。
这是传统世界，
07:22
So this is the conventional world,
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07:24
which is actually delivering
on an increasing number of SDGs,
on an increasing number of SDGs,
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它实现了越来越多的
可持续发展目标，
可持续发展目标，
让成千上万的人脱离了贫穷，
07:27
lifting millions of people out of poverty,
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但是以牺牲地球的安全运行空间
为代价。
为代价。
07:30
but doing it at the expense
of the safe operating space on earth.
of the safe operating space on earth.
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07:35
Now, this is the scenario
business as usual, into the future.
business as usual, into the future.
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这是一切如常的未来情景。
07:38
If we just move on as today,
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如果我们继续像今天一样，
我们能够实现一些可持续发展目标，
07:40
we will be able to deliver
on some of the SDGs,
on some of the SDGs,
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但我们将会牺牲地球系统的稳定。
07:43
but we'll do it at the expense
of the stability of the earth system.
of the stability of the earth system.
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07:48
Now, what if we go faster
on economic growth
on economic growth
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现在，如果我们加快经济的增长
07:50
and really ally on one percent
increase per year of income
increase per year of income
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并让每年的收入都有1%的增长，
07:55
and an even tripling
of the world economy by 2050?
of the world economy by 2050?
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并在2050年让世界经济翻三倍
会怎样？
会怎样？
07:59
That would give us
the following trajectory.
the following trajectory.
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这就得到了下面的轨迹。
08:01
We would, yes, go a little bit further
on SDG accomplishments,
on SDG accomplishments,
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我们可以再完成一些
可持续发展目标，
可持续发展目标，
但仍然以破坏地球的稳定为代价。
08:05
but still at the expense of the risk
of destabilizing the planet.
of destabilizing the planet.
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08:10
But what if we really go harder?
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但如果我们真的更加努力呢？
08:12
What if we increase our ability
to deliver on our promises by 30 percent
to deliver on our promises by 30 percent
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如果我们实现诺言的能力提高30%,
社会各处都能兑现
08:16
across all sectors in society,
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那些气候或贸易协议？
08:19
from climate to our trade agreements?
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08:23
A harder scenario would take us
a little bit better,
a little bit better,
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更努力的场景会让我们好一点，
08:27
but still, we're failing on the SDGs,
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但仍然我们会失去一些
可持续发展目标，
可持续发展目标，
而且也没能为人类实现一个
安全的运行空间。
安全的运行空间。
08:30
and we are not accomplishing
a safe operating space for humanity.
a safe operating space for humanity.
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所以这让我们得出了一个
非常令人失望的结论，
非常令人失望的结论，
08:34
So this really led us to a quite
disappointing conclusion,
disappointing conclusion,
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08:39
that we will actually, even if we go
conventional futures, fail on the SDGs
conventional futures, fail on the SDGs
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即使选择未来不变，
我们也会在可持续发展目标上失败，
我们也会在可持续发展目标上失败，
并超过地球界限。
08:44
and transgress planetary boundaries.
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08:46
We need some radical thinking.
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我们需要一些激进的想法。
08:47
We need to go into
a transformative, disruptive future,
a transformative, disruptive future,
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我们需要进入一个变革的、
颠覆性的未来，
颠覆性的未来，
08:52
where we start thinking
outside of the box.
outside of the box.
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我们要开始跳出思维定势。
模型，参与和对话让我们能够找到
08:55
The modeling and engagement
and dialogues enable us to identify
and dialogues enable us to identify
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08:58
five transformations that could
actually potentially take us there.
actually potentially take us there.
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五个可以把达成目标的变革政策。
09:02
The first one is to cut emissions
by half every decade
by half every decade
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第一个是朝《巴黎协议》努力，
09:05
along the scientific pathway to Paris,
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每十年减排一半，
翻倍对可再生能源的投入，
09:08
doubling investments in renewable energy,
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建立全球能源民主，
09:10
creating a global energy democracy,
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让我们能实现几个可持续发展目标。
09:12
allowing us to meet several of the SDGs.
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09:16
The second is a rapid shift
towards sustainable food systems,
towards sustainable food systems,
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第二个是向可持续食物系统的
快速转变，
快速转变，
09:20
investing one percent per year
in sustainable intensification
in sustainable intensification
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每年投资1%用于可持续集约化
并真正朝着实施与投资
09:24
and really moving towards implementing
and investing in solutions
and investing in solutions
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已有的解决方案迈进。
09:27
that we already have available today.
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09:31
The third is really to shift
our development paradigm
our development paradigm
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这三个是改变我们的发展策略
09:35
and learn from many
of the developing countries
of the developing countries
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并向很多进展迅猛的
09:37
that have moved very fast.
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发展中国家学习。
09:38
What if we could have
an economic growth such as in China,
an economic growth such as in China,
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如果我们有像中国那样的经济增长会怎样，
09:42
while doing it within
the environmental parameters
the environmental parameters
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同时这在生态文明
的环境下进行？
09:45
of an ecological civilization?
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09:47
Fourth, a redistribution of wealth.
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第四，重新分配财富。
09:50
What if we could [agree]
that the richest 10 percent
that the richest 10 percent
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如果我们能够同意最富的10%
09:53
could not allow themselves to amass
more than 40 percent, maximum,
more than 40 percent, maximum,
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不让自己积累财富的最大值
超过40%的
超过40%的
09:56
of national incomes --
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国家收入——
09:58
a drastic redistribution of wealth,
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大规模的财富再分配，
10:00
reforming the ability
of equity across regions?
of equity across regions?
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改革各地间的平等能力，会如何？
10:03
And finally, fifth, a radical increase
in more education, health,
in more education, health,
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还有最后，第五点，增加
更多投入到教育，健康，
更多投入到教育，健康，
10:07
access to work, contraception,
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就业机会，节育，
10:09
investing largely in women
across the world,
across the world,
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加大对全球女性的投资，
10:12
allowing us to deliver on SDGs
on gender, inequality,
on gender, inequality,
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让我们可以实现性别，不平等，经济
10:17
economics and urban development.
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和城市发展这些可持续发展目标。
现在，如果我们在所有这
五个目标上推动我们——
五个目标上推动我们——
10:20
Now, if we would push ourselves
across all these five --
across all these five --
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10:23
we tested this, and it would give us
an amazing journey
an amazing journey
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我们试验了这个，
它会给我们一段惊奇的
它会给我们一段惊奇的
超着安全和公正的地球运行空间
前进的旅程。
前进的旅程。
10:29
towards the safe and just
operating space on earth.
operating space on earth.
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10:33
It shows us that even with
a conservative, empirically based,
a conservative, empirically based,
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它告诉我们
即便使用保守的，基于经验的
即便使用保守的，基于经验的
10:37
complex system dynamics model,
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复杂系统动力模型，
10:39
we are at a state where we can
actually think of transformations
actually think of transformations
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现阶段我们仍可以想象得到
10:43
over the next 12 years and beyond
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未来12年和更久之后的变革，
10:45
that can take us up into
the safe operating space
the safe operating space
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可以带我们进入安全运行空间
并实现有抱负的社会和经济目标。
10:48
and deliver on aspirational
social and economic goals.
social and economic goals.
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10:52
This is actually quite uplifting,
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这非常令人振奋，
10:55
despite the fact that we're
not moving along this trajectory.
not moving along this trajectory.
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尽管事实上我们还没有
沿着这个轨迹前进。
沿着这个轨迹前进。
10:58
So, in summary:
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所以，总而言之：
11:00
we now, three years into
the operational delivery on the SDGs,
the operational delivery on the SDGs,
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我们现在，可持续发展目标
的实施已经进行了三年，
的实施已经进行了三年，
我们必须画一条线，
11:04
must draw a line
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11:06
and conclude that we're not
delivering on our promises,
delivering on our promises,
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得出的结论是
我们并没有实现我们的承诺，
我们并没有实现我们的承诺，
11:09
and not only that, we're running the risks
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而且不仅如此，我们还在冒着
11:12
of future generations having
an even tougher ability,
an even tougher ability,
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让后代更加艰难的风险，
11:15
because of the risk of pushing
the earth system beyond tipping points.
the earth system beyond tipping points.
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因为我们有可能把地球界限
推向临界点。
推向临界点。
11:19
In fact, we are facing even
a risk of a hothouse earth,
a risk of a hothouse earth,
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事实上，我们正面临
温室地球的风险，
温室地球的风险，
我们逐渐瓦解并制造
地缘政治的不稳定性，
地缘政治的不稳定性，
11:23
where we will undermine
and create geopolitical instabilities
and create geopolitical instabilities
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11:26
that could actually make life
even more tough
even more tough
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这会让地球上几十亿人
11:29
for billions of people on earth.
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的生活更加艰难。
这些，老实说，真是让我害怕。
11:31
This, in all honesty,
really, really scares me.
really, really scares me.
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11:35
But that's also why
I'm standing here tonight,
I'm standing here tonight,
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但这也是为什么我今晚站在这里，
11:38
because the window
of success is still open.
of success is still open.
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因为成功的窗口仍然打开着。
11:41
The earth system is still resilient.
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地球系统仍然具有弹性。
11:44
She is still providing us
with ecosystem services and functions
with ecosystem services and functions
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她仍能为我们提供
生态系统的服务和功能，
生态系统的服务和功能，
11:48
that can allow us a transition
back into a safe operating space.
back into a safe operating space.
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可以让我们转型至安全运行空间。
11:51
But we need radically different thinking.
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但我们需要从根本改变思考方式。
11:54
We need to see this
as an incredible wake-up call
as an incredible wake-up call
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我们需要把这视作
可怖的警钟，
可怖的警钟，
11:58
but also an opportunity
for transformative change,
for transformative change,
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但也是一个变革的机会，
12:00
where we shift gears
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在这我们可以换挡
12:02
and really start thinking
of the SDGs as a transformative agenda
of the SDGs as a transformative agenda
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并开始思考在地球安全运行空间中
将可持续发展目标
将可持续发展目标
12:05
within a safe operating space on earth.
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视为一项变革议程。
12:07
In other words, we can build
a safe and just world.
a safe and just world.
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换句话说，我们可以构建
一个安全和公正的世界。
一个安全和公正的世界。
但我们得真正，真正开始行动。
12:12
We just have to really,
really get on with it.
really get on with it.
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让我们去做吧，谢谢。
12:15
And let's do it. Thank you.
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（掌声）
12:17
(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Johan Rockstrom - Sustainability expertJohan Rockström works to redefine sustainable development, and figure out what needs to happen.
Why you should listen
Johan Rockström leads the Stockholm Resilience Centre, focusing on a new approach to sustainability: the capacity to use change and crisis to spur renewal and innovative thinking. In 2009, working with an international team of scientists, he identified and quantified a set of nine planetary boundaries within which humanity can continue to develop and thrive for generations to come -- while crossing them could generate abrupt or irreversible environmental changes.
Since then, the boundaries research has spread among international organizations, governments, NGOs and companies and has been adopted as a new framework to guide the discussion about "sustainable growth". It is currently debated as a core part of setting the criteria that will follow the UN's Millennium Development Goals. Rockström also chairs Future Earth, an initiative to advance integrated science for global sustainability.
Johan Rockstrom | Speaker | TED.com