TEDGlobal 2009
Rob Hopkins: Transition to a world without oil
罗布•霍普金斯Rob Hopkins：不用石油的转变世界
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罗布•霍普金斯Rob Hopkins提醒我们：世界赖以生存的石油即将耗尽。为转变到没有石油的世界，他给出了自己的解答-转变响应。过没有石油的生活，牺牲我们的舒适生活，建立一个完全不依靠石油化石燃料的系统和社区。
Rob Hopkins - Resilience leader
Rob Hopkins is the founder of the Transition movement, a radically hopeful and community-driven approach to creating societies independent of fossil fuel. Full bio
Rob Hopkins is the founder of the Transition movement, a radically hopeful and community-driven approach to creating societies independent of fossil fuel. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:18
As a culture, we tell ourselves lots of stories
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在人类文明中，有很多关于未来的
00:21
about the future,
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故事，
00:23
and where we might move forward from this point.
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也许正是这些故事激励我们前行。
00:25
Some of those stories are that
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在一些故事中
00:27
somebody is just going to sort everything out for us.
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有些人努力去收集和利用所有事物。
00:30
Other stories are that everything is on the verge of unraveling.
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在另一些故事中，所有事物都濒临灭亡。
00:34
But I want to tell you a different story here today.
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但是我今天将带给你们一个不同的故事。
00:36
Like all stories, it has a beginning.
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与所有故事一样，它也有一个开头。
00:39
My work, for a long time, has been involved in education,
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在很长一段时间，我一直潜心于教育事业，
00:42
in teaching people practical skills
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教大家
00:44
for sustainability,
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可持续性实用技能，
00:46
teaching people how to take responsibility
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比如
00:48
for growing some of their own food,
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在自家种菜，
00:50
how to build buildings using local materials,
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利用本地的材料建造房子，
00:52
how to generate their own energy, and so on.
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挖掘本地的能量源等等，这些都是为了帮助人们更好的承担责任。
00:55
I lived in Ireland, built the first straw-bale houses in Ireland,
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我生活在爱尔兰，在那儿我建造了第一个稻草屋，
00:59
and some cob buildings and all this kind of thing.
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和一些圆形建筑以及类似的。
01:02
But all my work for many years was focused
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很多年来我的工作都集中在
01:05
around the idea that sustainability
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一个想法--可持续性，
01:07
means basically looking at
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它意味着：着眼于
01:09
the globalized economic growth model,
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全球经济增长模型，
01:12
and moderating what comes in at one end,
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既监控着自身就有的东西，
01:14
and moderating the outputs at the other end.
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也监控着所产出排出的东西，
01:17
And then I came into contact with a way of looking at things
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然后我就开始接触并以长远的目光观察
01:20
which actually changed that profoundly.
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在实际中变化巨大的这一切。
01:22
And in order to introduce you to that,
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为了介绍清楚，
01:24
I've got something here that I'm going to unveil,
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在这里我打算揭开
01:26
which is one of the great marvels of the modern age.
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一个当代伟大奇迹的发现。
01:29
And it's something so astounding and so astonishing
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它是如此惊天动地，
01:31
that I think maybe as I remove this cloth
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我想我还是先揭开它的面纱，
01:34
a suitable gasp of amazement might be appropriate.
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并好好喘口气，然后再告诉大家比较合适。
01:37
If you could help me with that it would be fantastic.
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如果你们能帮我一把，那就完美了。
01:44
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
01:45
This is a liter of oil.
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这儿有一升石油。
01:48
This bottle of oil,
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这瓶油
01:51
distilled over a hundred million years of geological time,
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提炼取自上亿年前的地质，
01:54
ancient sunlight,
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经过远古的阳光照射，
01:56
contains the energy equivalent of about five weeks
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它饱含的能量相当于5周的
01:58
hard human manual labor --
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艰苦的体力劳动，
02:01
equivalent to about 35 strong people
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也相当于35个壮劳力
02:05
coming round and working for you.
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为你服务。
02:08
We can turn it into a dazzling array of materials,
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我们可以用石油再加工成琳琅满目的新材料：
02:12
medicine, modern clothing,
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药物，现代纺织料，
02:14
laptops, a whole range of different things.
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笔记本电脑，还有其他不同的材料。
02:18
It gives us an energy return that's unimaginable, historically.
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石油给予我们的历史发展中所需的无法想象的能量循环。
02:23
We've based the design of our settlements,
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我们赖以生存的社区设计，
02:25
our business models, our transport plans,
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经济学模型，旅游计划，
02:27
even the idea of economic growth, some would argue,
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甚至经济增长的观点，可能有些人会怀疑，
02:30
on the assumption that we will have this in perpetuity.
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假设我们将会永久持续使用石油。
02:34
Yet, when we take a step back,
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如果我们退一步看，
02:37
and look over the span of history,
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整个人类历史，
02:39
at what we might call the petroleum interval,
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我们所谓的石油时代，
02:42
it's a short period in history
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仅仅是历史的一小段，
02:44
where we've discovered this extraordinary material,
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从我们发现这个特别的材料，
02:47
and then based a whole way of life around it.
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到完全依赖石油。
02:50
But as we straddle the top of this energy mountain, at this stage,
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但现在当我们处在能源的顶峰，
02:54
we move from a time where our economic success,
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过去，我们的经济成功，
02:57
our sense of individual prowess and well-being
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个人能力和福利
03:00
is directly linked to how much of this we consume,
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直接取决于我们消耗的石油的多少。
03:04
to a time when actually our degree of oil dependency
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到现在我们对石油的依赖
03:07
is our degree of vulnerability.
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正是我们的弱点。
03:09
And it's increasingly clear that we
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越来越清晰的表明：我们
03:11
aren't going to be able to rely on the fact that
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永远基于石油的事实
03:13
we're going to have this at our disposal forever.
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是站不住脚的。
03:16
For every four barrels of oil that we consume,
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我们每消耗4桶石油，
03:18
we only discover one.
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却只能发现1桶。
03:20
And that gap continues to widen.
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这个差距越来越大。
03:22
There is also the fact that the amount of energy
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事实是我们从石油中得到的能源
03:24
that we get back from the oil that we discover is falling.
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正在减少。
03:27
In the 1930s we got 100 units of energy back
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在1930年代，我们每个人可以从提炼石油中
03:30
for every one that we put in to extract it.
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得到100单位的能源。
03:33
Completely unprecedented, historically.
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这是空前的，历史上最多的，
03:35
Already that's fallen to about 11.
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现在，能源利用值降低为11。
03:37
And that's why, now,
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就是为什么现在，
03:39
the new breakthroughs, the new frontiers
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石油萃取的新突破技术，新边疆的
03:41
in terms of oil extraction are scrambling about in Alberta,
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争夺如此激烈，不管是在Alberta地区，
03:44
or at the bottom of the oceans.
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还是在海底。
03:46
There are 98 oil-producing nations in the world.
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世界上有98个石油生产国，
03:49
But of those, 65 have already passed their peak.
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但，其中65个已经超过了开采的峰值。
03:52
The moment when the world on average passes this peak,
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世界平均开采早晚都会超过这个峰值，
03:55
people wonder when that's going to happen.
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人们只是想知道什么时候发生。
03:57
And there is an emerging case
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一个紧急例子是
03:58
that maybe that was what happened last July
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去年7月份发生的
04:00
when the oil prices were so high.
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油价高峰。
04:02
But are we to assume that the same brilliance
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但人类的智慧，
04:04
and creativity and adaptability
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创造力、适应力
04:06
that got us up to the top of that energy mountain in the first place
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使我们第一次到达了能源的顶峰，
04:09
is somehow mysteriously going to evaporate
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当我们不得不在能源低谷探索时，
04:12
when we have to design a creative way back down the other side?
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这种智慧、创造力和适应力却莫名其妙地突然神秘蒸发了？
04:16
No. But the thinking that we have to come up with
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不是的。而是伴随这个想法的
04:19
has to be based on a realistic assessment
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基础是基于一个现实的假设，
04:22
of where we are.
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我们已经达到了开采巅峰。
04:24
There is also the issue of climate change,
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面对气候变化时，
04:26
is the other thing that underpins this transition approach.
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也同样支持了这种转变方法。
04:28
But the thing that I notice, as I talk to climate scientists,
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当我和气候学家讨论时，我注意到
04:31
is the increasingly terrified look they have in their eyes,
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他们眼里与日俱增的恐惧，
04:34
as the data that's coming in,
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伴随着最近的更新数据，
04:36
which is far ahead of what the IPCC are talking about.
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要比IPCC（联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会）讨论中的数据更有说服力，
04:40
So the IPCC said
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IPCC的结论是：
04:42
that we might see significant breakup
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我们可以预见2100年
04:44
of the arctic ice in 2100, in their worst case scenario.
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在最坏的情况下，北极冰川严重断裂。
04:47
Actually, if current trends continue,
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事实上，如果目前的趋势继续恶化，
04:50
it could all be gone in five or 10 years' time.
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它将在5年或者10年内发生。
04:52
If just three percent of the carbon locked up in the arctic permafrost
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如果北极永冻土中包含二氧化碳的3%，
04:56
is released as the world warms,
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在全球变暖中释放，
04:58
it would offset all the savings that we need to make,
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它将抵消我们所有为减少二氧化碳所做的努力，
05:00
in carbon, over the next 40 years to avoid runaway climate change.
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在未来的40年间防范难以捉摸的气候变化。
05:03
We have no choice other than deep and urgent decarbonization.
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除了我们深入实施紧急的二氧化碳减排，我们没有其他选择。
05:08
But I'm always very interested to think about
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但我一直很感兴趣地思考
05:10
what might the stories be
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故事可能是这样的：
05:12
that the generations further down the slope from us
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我们以后的几代人
05:15
are going to tell about us.
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将会告诉我们。
05:17
"The generation that lived at the top of the mountain,
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“后代们生活在山顶，
05:20
that partied so hard, and so abused its inheritance."
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忍受艰难，他们的遗产也很可怜。”
05:25
And one of the ways I like to do that
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我喜欢的方法之一是
05:27
is to look back at the stories people used to tell
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回首往事时人们通常这么说：
05:29
before we had cheap oil, before we had fossil fuels,
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在拥有便宜的汽油和化石燃料之前，
05:32
and people relied on their own muscle, animal muscle energy,
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人们依赖于他们的肌肉，动物肌肉中的能量，
05:35
or a little bit of wind, little bit of water energy.
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或者一些风能，一些水能。
05:38
We had stories like "The Seven-League Boots":
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我们有“七联赛靴”的故事：
05:41
the giant who had these boots, where, once you put them on,
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一旦巨人穿上这样的靴子，
05:43
with every stride you could cover seven leagues, or 21 miles,
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每迈出一步就可以完成7联赛，或者21英里，
05:47
a kind of travel completely unimaginable
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对于没有这种功能靴子的人们来说，
05:49
to people without that kind of energy at their disposal.
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这是一种完全无法想象的旅程。
05:52
Stories like The Magic Porridge Pot,
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还有神奇魔术锅的故事，
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where you had a pot where if you knew the magic words,
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如果你知道魔语，你可以让一个魔术锅
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this pot would just make as much food as you liked,
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不断地做出你想要的食物，
06:00
without you having to do any work,
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当然你也不用动手。
06:02
provided you could remember the other magic word to stop it making porridge.
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假如你记得其他咒语，就可以停止做燕麦粥。
06:05
Otherwise you'd flood your entire town with warm porridge.
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否则，整个城市将被温燕麦粥淹没。
06:09
There is the story of "The Elves and the Shoemaker."
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还有一个"鞋匠和小矮人"的故事。
06:12
The people who make shoes go to sleep, wake up in the morning,
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鞋匠晚上没做完鞋就睡着了，当他早上睡醒的时候，
06:14
and all the shoes are magically made for them.
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却发现所有的鞋子都神奇地做好了。
06:16
It's something that was unimaginable to people then.
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对人类来说，这真是不可思议。
06:19
Now we have the seven-league boots
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现在，有Ryanair和Easyjet飞机形式的
06:22
in the form of Ryanair and Easyjet.
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七联赛靴。
06:25
We have the magic porridge pot
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也有类似神奇魔术锅（格林童话神奇锅）
06:27
in the form of Walmart and Tesco.
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的Walmart和Tesco大型超市。
06:29
And we have the elves in the form of China.
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还有就好比小矮人一样的中国。
06:32
But we don't appreciate what an astonishing
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但是我们不欢迎这些令人吃惊的
06:36
thing that has been.
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正发生的事情。
06:38
And what are the stories that we tell ourselves now,
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现在我们要讲的
06:40
as we look forward about where we're going to go.
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正是我们期盼的关于前途的问题。
06:43
And I would argue that there are four. There is the idea of business as usual,
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我认为，有4个方向。通常的商业想法是
06:46
that the future will be like the present, just more of it.
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未来仅仅是现在的延续，甚至是更好。
06:49
But as we've seen over the last year, I think that's an idea
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但回顾去年，我认为那个想法
06:51
that is increasingly coming into question.
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正在成为一个问题。
06:53
And in terms of climate change,
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从气候变化来看，
06:55
is something that is not actually feasible.
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事实上这有点行不通。
06:59
There is the idea of hitting the wall,
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还有一个碰壁的想法，
07:01
that actually somehow everything is so fragile
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所有东西都变得很脆弱，
07:04
that it might just all unravel and collapse.
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即将瓦解，全部崩溃。
07:06
This is a popular story in some places.
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在一些地方，这种观点比较普遍。
07:09
The third story is the idea that technology can solve everything,
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第三种想法是：科技可以解决所有问题。
07:12
that technology can somehow get us through this completely.
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科技可以带领我们完全客服困难。
07:16
And it's an idea that I think is very prevalent at these TED Talks,
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我认为，这种观点在TED讨论者中比较普遍，
07:20
the idea that we can invent our way out of a profound
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我们发明一种方法走出严峻的
07:23
economic and energy crisis,
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经济和能源危机，
07:25
that a move to a knowledge economy
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一种知识经济运动可以
07:27
can somehow neatly sidestep those energy constraints,
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远离能源束缚。
07:30
the idea that we'll discover some fabulous new source of energy
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有观点是我们发现一些极好的新能源，
07:33
that will mean we can sweep all concerns
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使得我们可以对
07:35
about energy security to one side,
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能源安全问题搁置一边，
07:38
the idea that we can step off neatly
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我们可以轻松地迈入到
07:40
onto a completely renewable world.
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一个全新的可再生能源的世界。
07:42
But the world isn't Second Life.
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但世界并非第二人生（Second Life虚拟世界网络）。
07:44
We can't create new land and new energy systems at the click of a mouse.
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我们不能凭简单地点击鼠标，然后创造出了新大陆和新能源体系。
07:48
And as we sit, exchanging free ideas with each other,
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当我们坐在这里，彼此自由交流思想的时候，
07:51
there are still people mining coal
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仍然有人在挖煤，
07:53
in order to power the servers, extracting the minerals
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目的是提取矿物质，为一些服务提供能量，
07:55
to make all of those things.
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使它们运转。
07:57
The breakfast that we eat as we sit down
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当我们早上坐下来，
07:59
to check our email in the morning
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查收我们邮件的时候，
08:01
is still transported at great distances,
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早餐正从很远地方运来，
08:03
usually at the expense of the local, more resilient
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这通常影响了当地的，自给自足，更具恢复性的
08:05
food systems that would have supplied that in the past,
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餐饮系统，这种餐饮系统长久以来就有，
08:08
which we've so effectively devalued and dismantled.
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而我们却有效低估，甚至让这种餐饮系统消失。
08:12
We can be astonishingly inventive and creative.
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我们可以惊人地去创造，
08:15
But we also live in a world with very real constraints and demands.
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但我们生存在受现实约束的世界中。
08:19
Energy and technology are not the same thing.
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能源和科技不是同一个事物。
08:22
What I'm involved with is the transition response.
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我潜心于转变响应的积极措施。
08:24
And this is really about looking the challenges
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这是当前关于
08:27
of peak oil and climate change square in the face,
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石油开采峰值和气候变化的巨大挑战，
08:29
and responding with a creativity and an adaptability
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以及创造性和适应性和
08:32
and an imagination that we really need.
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我们迫切所需的想象力的响应。
08:35
It's something which has spread incredibly fast.
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转变响应以惊人的速度传播。
08:38
And it is something which has several characteristics.
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它具有多种特征，
08:40
It's viral. It seems to spread under the radar very, very quickly.
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像病毒一样，好似在雷达下的快速传播。
08:45
It's open source. It's something which everybody who's involved with it
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它是开源的。每个潜心于转变发展的人，
08:49
develops and passes on as they work with it.
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在工作中传递。
08:53
It's self-organizing. There is no great central organization
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自我组织，没有庞大的中央组织
08:56
that pushes this; people just pick up an idea
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去推动；人们仅仅有了一个想法
08:58
and they run with it, and they implement it where they are.
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并且运行，贯彻执行。
09:01
It's solutions-focused. It's very much looking at what people can do
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集中解决问题。关注人们能够做什么，
09:04
where they are, to respond to this.
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设身处地的进行转变响应。
09:07
It's sensitive to place and to scale.
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就不同地方和规模都会有出入。
09:09
Transitional is completely different.
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转变也就完全不同。
09:11
Transition groups in Chile, transition groups in the U.S., transition groups here,
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智利的转变小组，美国的转变小组，这里的转变小组，
09:15
what they're doing looks very different in every place that you go to.
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你去的每个地方，大家的看法都不一样。
09:18
It learns very much from its mistakes.
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从错误中可以学习到很多。
09:20
And it feels historic. It tries to create a sense
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这转变很有历史影响。它创造一种
09:23
that this is a historic opportunity
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历史性的机会
09:25
to do something really extraordinary.
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让人们去做不同寻常的事情。
09:27
And it's a process which is really joyful.
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在此过程中的确充满乐趣。
09:29
People have a huge amount of fun doing this,
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身体力行的人们感到无限乐趣，
09:31
reconnecting with other people as they do it.
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人们也乐于联系在一起做这些转变。
09:34
One of the things that underpins it is this idea of resilience.
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支撑上述观点的是可恢复性理论。
09:37
And I think, in many ways, the idea of resilience
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我认为，在多方面，这种可恢复性理论
09:40
is a more useful concept than the idea of sustainability.
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比可持续理论更有用。
09:44
The idea of resilience comes from the study of ecology.
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可恢复性理论源于生态学，
09:46
And it's really about how systems,
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是关于系统，
09:49
settlements, withstand shock from the outside.
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安居置业，如何抵挡外部冲击。
09:52
When they encounter shock from the outside
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当他们遇到外部冲击时，
09:54
that they don't just unravel and fall to pieces.
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他们不只是分解，或者崩溃。
09:56
And I think it's a more useful concept than sustainability, as I said.
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我认为可恢复性理论比可持续理论更有用，正如我所说。
10:00
When our supermarkets have only two or three days' worth of food in them
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在任何时候，当超市只有2，3天的食物储备时，
10:04
at any one time, often sustainability tends to focus on
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通常可持续理论关注于
10:07
the energy efficiency of the freezers
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冰箱的能效，
10:09
and on the packaging that the lettuces are wrapped up in.
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和包裹生菜的包装。
10:12
Looking through the lens of resilience,
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从可恢复性理论角度看，
10:14
we really question how we've let ourselves get into a situation
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我们从根本上质疑我们竟依赖于这种
10:18
that's so vulnerable.
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如此脆弱的超市消费模式。
10:20
Resilience runs much deeper:
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可恢复性理论可以更广泛地运作：
10:22
it's about building modularity into what we do,
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它是基于我们所要转变的模块化建设，
10:24
building surge breakers into how we organize the basic things that support us.
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和我们怎样组织生产自给自足必需品的转变社区建立。
10:29
This is a photograph of the Bristol and District
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这是布里斯托尔市Bristol和湖区District的照片，
10:31
Market Gardeners Association, in 1897.
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1897年，农业菜园市场协会Market Gardeners Association成立。
10:35
This is at a time when the city of Bristol,
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当时，布里斯托尔市Bristol
10:37
which is quite close to here,
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就在这个附近，
10:39
was surrounded by commercial market gardens,
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周围是商业市场菜园，
10:41
which provided a significant amount of the food
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提供给城市所需的大量食物，
10:44
that was consumed in the town, and created a lot of employment for people, as well.
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也创造很多就业机会，等等。
10:48
There was a degree of resilience, if you like, at that time,
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这就是可恢复性的一个例子，希望你们喜欢，
10:51
which we can now only look back on with envy.
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我们现在只能带着羡慕的眼光回首那时。
10:55
So how does this transition idea work?
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因此，这个转变的想法如何运作？
10:57
So basically, you have a group of people who are excited by the idea.
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大体上有很多人为这个想法而兴奋不已。
11:00
They pick up some of the tools that we've developed.
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他们使用我们开发的一些工具，
11:03
They start to run an awareness-raising program
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他们开始一个“awareness-raising提高认识”的计划，
11:05
looking at how this might actually work in the town.
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在城镇中测试实际转变运作情况。
11:08
They show films, they give talks, and so on.
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他们观看电影，开展讨论等等。
11:10
It's a process which is playful and creative
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这个转变过程有趣而富有创造力，
11:13
and informative.
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并增长见识。
11:15
Then they start to form working groups, looking at different aspects of this,
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然后他们开始组建工作组，分别负责不同的方面，
11:18
and then from that, there emerge a whole lot of projects
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因此基于此，形成了很多转变项目，
11:21
which then the transition project itself
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然后转变项目本身
11:23
starts to support and enable.
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开始运行和完善。
11:28
So it started out with some work I was involved in in Ireland,
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在爱尔兰我开始了相关的工作，
11:30
where I was teaching, and has since spread.
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爱尔兰是我教学的地方，也是工作开展的地方。
11:32
There are now over 200 formal transition projects.
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目前已经有超过200个正式的转变项目。
11:35
And there are thousands of others who are at what we call the mulling stage.
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在我们所谓的酝酿阶段，有过千的工作人员。
11:39
They are mulling whether they're going to take it further.
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他们正在酝酿方案将来的可行性。
11:41
And actually a lot of them are doing huge amounts of stuff.
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实际上大部分人做了大量的的工作。
11:44
But what do they actually do? You know, it's a kind of nice idea,
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但他们实际上做什么呢？大家知道，这是一个新颖的想法，
11:46
but what do they actually do on the ground?
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但他们付诸的实际情况如何？
11:48
Well, I think it's really important to make the point that actually
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因此，我认为重申这一点非常重要，
11:52
you know, this isn't something which is going to do everything on its own.
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实际上大家知道，转变不是一个自身就能完成所有工作。
11:55
We need international legislation from Copenhagen and so on.
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我们需要哥本哈根大会的国际立法等等。
11:59
We need national responses. We need local government responses.
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我们需要得到国内的响应，本地政府的响应。
12:02
But all of those things are going to be much easier
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但所有事情都会变得非常简单，
12:05
if we have communities that are vibrant and coming up with ideas
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如果我们有活跃的社区以及最新的想法交流，
12:08
and leading from the front, making unelectable policies electable,
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然后领导转变响应，使得相关政策通过候选立法，
12:11
over the next 5 to 10 years.
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在接下来的5到10年。
12:13
Some of the things that emerge from it are local food projects,
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自然而然的就有一些当地的食物项目，
12:16
like community-supported agriculture schemes,
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例如社区团体支持的农业计划，
12:18
urban food production, creating local food directories, and so on.
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城乡食物计划，当地食物目录等等。
12:22
A lot of places now are starting to set up their own energy companies,
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目前很多地方都开始建立自己的能源工厂，
12:25
community-owned energy companies,
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社区自建能源工厂，
12:27
where the community can invest money into itself,
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由社区独立投资，
12:29
to start putting in place
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开始建立
12:31
the kind of renewable energy infrastructure that we need.
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可再生能源基础设施，这正是我们需要的。
12:33
A lot of places are working with their local schools.
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在许多地方，学校也参与进来。
12:36
Newent in the Forest of Dean: big polytunnel they built for the school;
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位于迪恩森林国家公园附近的Newent市：人们在学校建起大型保温棚，
12:38
the kids are learning how to grow food.
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孩子们学习如何种植食物。
12:40
Promoting recycling, things like garden-share,
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提倡再循环利用，例如菜园共享，
12:43
that matches up people who don't have a garden
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使得没有菜园的人们
12:45
who would like to grow food, with people who have gardens they aren't using anymore.
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可以在被人闲置的菜园地方，种植食物。
12:48
Planting productive trees throughout urban spaces.
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在广阔的城乡种植经济树木。
12:51
And also starting to play around with the idea of
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同时开始推广
12:53
alternative currencies.
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可替换的流通货币的想法。
12:55
This is Lewes in Sussex,
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这是在苏塞克斯Sussex的刘易斯市Lewes
12:57
who have recently launched the Lewes Pound,
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最近投放上市的刘易斯英镑，
13:00
a currency that you can only spend within the town,
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它只能在当地流通，
13:02
as a way of starting to cycle money within the local economy.
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成为了当地循环经济的开始。
13:05
You take it anywhere else, it's not worth anything.
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而你在其他地方用这种货币，它就一文不值了。
13:07
But actually within the town you start to create these economic
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但实际上这种循环经济模式在当地
13:10
cycles much more effectively.
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非常有效。
13:13
Another thing that they do is what we call an energy descent plan,
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他们做的另一件事，我们称之为节约能源计划，
13:15
which is basically to develop a plan B for the town.
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是为城镇而开发的另一个B计划。
13:18
Most of our local authorities, when they sit down to plan
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但我们大部分当地政府开始着手
13:21
for the next five, 10, 15, 20 years of a community,
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未来5年，10年，15年到20年计划时，
13:24
still start by assuming that there will be more energy,
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还都理所当然地认为会有更多石油能源，
13:27
more cars, more housing,
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更多汽车，更多房屋，
13:29
more jobs, more growth, and so on.
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更多工作，更多增长等等。
13:31
What does it look like if that's not the case? And how can we embrace that
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如果情况不是那样，会怎样呢？我们又该如何接受
13:34
and actually come up with something that was actually more likely
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现实中想到的事情真的很有可能
13:36
to sustain everybody?
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来养活大家？
13:38
As a friend of mine says, "Life is a series of things you're not quite ready for."
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我的一个朋友说：生活是由一系列你完全没有准备好的事情组成的。
13:43
And that's certainly been my experience with transition.
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那也正是我亲身经历的转变，
13:45
From three years ago, it just being an idea,
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在3年前，它仅仅是一个想法，
13:47
this has become something that has virally swept around the world.
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这转变已经快速风靡世界。
13:51
We're getting a lot of interest from government. Ed Miliband,
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这也吸引了政府议员，这个国家（英国）能源部长埃德米利班德Ed Miliband的兴趣，
13:53
the energy minister of this country, was invited to come to our recent conference
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我们邀请他参加我们最近的会议
13:57
as a keynote listener.
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作为一个演讲听众。
13:59
Which he did --
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他
14:01
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
14:02
(Applause) --
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（掌声）
14:05
and has since become a great advocate of the whole idea.
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并从此成为整个转变想法的极力提倡者。
14:09
There are now two local authorities in this country
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这个国家目前有两个当地政府
14:12
who have declared themselves transitional local authorities,
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声明它们要转变为不依赖石油的当地政府，
14:14
Leicestershire and Somerset. And in Stroud,
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莱斯特郡Leicestershiere 和萨默塞特郡Somerset。在斯特劳德市Stroud
14:16
the transition group there, in effect, wrote the local government's food plan.
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转变组真的为当地政府起草了食物计划。
14:21
And the head of the council said,
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委员会主席说，
14:23
"If we didn't have Transition Stroud, we would have to invent
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“如果我们没有转变斯特劳德市Transition Stround，我们也得首次创新
14:25
all of that community infrastructure for the first time."
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所有社区的基础设施。”
14:29
As we see the spread of it, we see national hubs emerging.
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正如我们看到的转变响应的蔓延，国家的转变提上议程。
14:32
In Scotland, the Scottish government's climate change fund
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在苏格兰Scotland,Scottish苏格兰政府气候变化基金
14:35
has funded Transition Scotland
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已投资转变苏格兰Transition Scotland
14:37
as a national organization supporting the spread of this.
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作为国家资助项目发展。
14:40
And we see it all over the place as well now.
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正如大家所见，目前所有地方都开展了。
14:43
But the key to transition is thinking not that we have to change everything now,
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不过，转变的关键是我们现在没有改变所有，
14:46
but that things are already inevitably changing,
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但很多已经不可避免的改变了，
14:49
and what we need to do is to work creatively with that,
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我们所做的就是创造性的开展工作，
14:52
based on asking the right questions.
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提出正确的问题。
14:55
I think I'd like to just return at the end
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我想我应该返回到
14:57
to the idea of stories.
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这个想法故事的结尾。
14:59
Because I think stories are vital here.
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因为我认为这些故事比较生动和重要。
15:01
And actually the stories that we tell ourselves,
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我们自己谈论着实际中的故事，
15:03
we have a huge dearth of stories about how to move forward creatively from here.
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除这里分享的，我们还缺乏大量故事来指导我们创新的转变。
15:08
And one of the key things that transition does
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关键的一点是
15:10
is to pull those stories out of what people are doing.
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人们把他们做的这种转变创新的故事用来分享。
15:12
Stories about the community that's produced
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例如，社区可以自行生产
15:15
its own 21 pound note, for example,
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21英镑纸币，
15:18
the school that's turned its car park into a food garden,
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把学校的汽车停车场转变为一个食物菜园地，
15:21
the community that's founded its own energy company.
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建立自己能源工厂的社区等等的故事。
15:24
And for me, one of the great stories recently
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对我来说，最近一个精彩的故事
15:26
was the Obamas digging up the south lawn of the White House
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是奥巴马夫妇在白宫南草坪
15:29
to create a vegetable garden. Because the last time that was done,
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开辟蔬菜园地。因为上次这么做还要
15:31
when Eleanor Roosevelt did it,
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提起埃莉诺罗斯福Eleanor Roosevelt，
15:33
it led to the creation of 20 million vegetable gardens across the United States.
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它引领了全美2千万蔬菜菜园的兴建。
15:38
So the question I'd like to leave you with, really,
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所以我留给你们的问题是，
15:40
is -- for all aspects of the things that your community needs
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为了你们社区繁荣，考虑所需的方方面面
15:44
in order to thrive,
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的事情，
15:46
how can it be done in such a way
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如何实施这种转变响应来
15:48
that drastically reduces its carbon emissions,
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大幅降低二氧化碳排放，
15:51
while also building resilience?
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又同时建立可恢复性的繁荣？
15:53
Personally, I feel enormously grateful
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从我个人而言，我非常的感谢
15:55
to have lived through the age of cheap oil.
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我所经历过的廉价石油年代。
15:58
I've been astonishingly lucky, we've been astonishingly lucky.
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我曾非常幸运，我们曾非常幸运。
16:02
But let us honor what it has bought us,
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让我们为石油所提供给我们的一切感到荣幸，
16:04
and move forward from this point.
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但从现在起要转变改进。
16:06
Because if we cling to it, and continue to assume
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因为如果我们依然依靠石油，继续这样的消耗
16:08
that it can underpin our choices,
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支撑着我们的选择权，
16:11
the future that it presents to us is one which is really unmanageable.
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我们所要面对的未来会越加难以驾驭。
16:14
And by loving and leaving all that oil has done for us,
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由热爱石油，到远离石油
16:17
and that the Oil Age has done for us,
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和石油年代供给给我们的一切，
16:19
we are able to then begin the creation
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我们将开创
16:21
of a world which is more resilient,
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一个更具有可恢复性的，
16:24
more nourishing,
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更有活力的世界，
16:26
and in which, we find ourselves fitter, more skilled
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我们将发现人与人彼此间更加健康，更加优秀，
16:29
and more connected to each other.
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和联系的更加紧密。
16:31
Thank you very much.
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非常感谢。
16:33
(Applause)
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（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Rob Hopkins - Resilience leaderRob Hopkins is the founder of the Transition movement, a radically hopeful and community-driven approach to creating societies independent of fossil fuel.
Why you should listen
Rob Hopkins leads a vibrant new movement of towns and cities that utilize local cooperation and interdependence to shrink their ecological footprints. In the face of climate change he developed the concept of Transition Initiatives -- communities that produce their own goods and services, curb the need for transportation and take other measures to prepare for a post-oil future. While Transition shares certain principles with greenness and sustainability, it is a deeper vision concerned with re-imagining our future in a self-sufficient way and building resiliency.
Transforming theory to action, Hopkins is also the co-founder and a resident of the first Transition Initiative in the UK, in Totnes, Devon. As he refuses to fly, it is from his home in Totnes that he offers help to hundreds of similar communities that have sprung up around the world, in part through his blog, transitionculture.org.
Hopkins, who's trained in ecological design, wrote the principal work on the subject, Transition Handbook: From Oil Dependency to Local Resilience, a 12-step manual for a postcarbon future. Find notes and slides from his TEDTalk here >>
Rob Hopkins | Speaker | TED.com