ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Alex Steffen - Planetary futurist
Alex Steffen explores our planet's future, telling powerful, inspiring stories about the hard choices facing humanity ... and our opportunity to create a much better tomorrow.

Why you should listen

Do you ever wonder whether we should be optimistic or pessimistic about the future? If you want more reasons to think things may still turn out for the better, Alex Steffen's your man. He doesn't downplay the scope and scale of the problems we face. Instead, he shows that we have the tools within our grasp for meeting those massive challenges, if we have the will to use them.

This isn't just hopeful thinking, either. Steffen uses real-world examples and big-picture research to show us that a brighter, greener future is ours to choose, and his work has earned him the ear of leading cities, corporations and philanthropic foundations. As the New York Times said a recent profile, "Alex Steffen lays out the blueprint for a successful century."

After working as a journalist on four continents, Steffen co-founded and ran the online magazine Worldchanging.com from 2003-2010. In those seven years, he made Worldchanging one of the world's leading sustainability-related publications with an archive of almost 12,000 articles and a large global audience. He also edited an internationally best-selling book surveying innovative solutions to the planet's most pressing problems: Worldchanging: A User's Guide for the 21st Century. 

His most recent work is Carbon Zero, a book describing cities that create prosperity not climate change, accelerating their economies while reducing their climate emissions to zero. He is now at work on a new book and a television project. "The big open secret about sustainability work," he recently told Design Observer magazine, 'is not how bad things are. It is how good things can get."

More profile about the speaker
Alex Steffen | Speaker | TED.com
TEDGlobal 2005

Alex Steffen: The route to a sustainable future

阿力克斯·史蒂芬看望可持续发展的未来

Filmed:
1,733,451 views

阿力克斯·史蒂芬是“改变世界”(Worldchanging.com)网站的创建人,他在这个演讲中指出,减低人类生态足迹在当下之意义尤为巨大,原因在于西方那一套生活方式将不能推广到发展中国家,因为那样将消耗大量的资源。(因为西方的那一套生活方式正逐步推广到发展中国家,进一步加剧着资源的大量消耗。)
- Planetary futurist
Alex Steffen explores our planet's future, telling powerful, inspiring stories about the hard choices facing humanity ... and our opportunity to create a much better tomorrow. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:25
When I'm starting开始 talks会谈 like this,
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以前我做这样的演讲的时候
00:27
I usually平时 do a whole整个 spiel高谈阔论 about sustainability可持续性
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通常是就可持续发展的理念大谈一通
00:30
because a lot of people out there don't know what that is.
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因为很多人根本就不知道那是什么东西
00:32
This is a crowd人群 that does know what it is,
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但这个会场里的人大都知道这个概念的意思
00:34
so I'll like just do like the 60-second crib-note婴儿床音符 version. Right?
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所以我就长话短说吧
00:38
So just bear with me. We'll go real真实 fast快速, you know?
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我会说得非常快 请大家见谅
00:40
Fill in the blanks空白.
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没说到的地方就需要你们发挥想象填补空白了
00:41
So, you know, sustainability可持续性, small planet行星.
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我们说可持续发展 地球很小
00:44
Right? Picture图片 a little Earth地球, circling盘旋 around the sun太阳.
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想象一个围绕着太阳转的地球
00:46
You know, about a million百万 years年份 ago,
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大约一百万年前的时候
00:47
a bunch of monkeys猴子 fell下跌 out of trees树木,
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一群猴子从树上爬下来
00:49
got a little clever聪明, harnessed驾驭 fire,
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变聪明了 还学会了使用火
00:51
invented发明 the printing印花 press,
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发明了印刷术
00:52
made制作, you know, luggage行李 with wheels车轮 on it.
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制造出带轮子的行李包
00:54
And, you know, built内置 the society社会 that we now live生活 in.
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并且创造出了我们今天生活的这个世界
00:58
Unfortunately不幸, while this society社会 is, without a doubt怀疑,
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虽说我们这个社会是人类历史上最繁荣最有活力的社会
01:01
the most prosperous繁荣 and dynamic动态 the world世界 has ever created创建,
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但不幸的是
01:05
it's got some major重大的, major重大的 flaws破绽.
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这个社会同样存在着许多非常非常严重的问题
01:08
One of them is that every一切 society社会 has an ecological生态 footprint脚印.
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其中一点就是每一个社会都会留下它的生态足迹
01:12
It has an amount of impact碰撞 on the planet行星 that's measurable可测量.
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并且这个足迹对我们星球的影响是可以测量的
01:16
How much stuff东东 goes through通过 your life,
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你一生中用了多少东西
01:19
how much waste浪费 is left behind背后 you.
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这些东西中又有多少是以废物的形式遗留下来
01:22
And we, at the moment时刻, in our society社会,
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而我们今天在这个世界上
01:25
have a really dramatically显着 unsustainable不可持续的 level水平 of this.
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过的是一种极其不可持续的生活
01:29
We're using运用 up about five planets行星.
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我们将消耗5个地球的资源
01:31
If everybody每个人 on the planet行星 lived生活 the way we did,
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假如地球上人人都像美国人那样生活的话
01:34
we'd星期三 need between之间 five, six, seven,
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有人说是5、6、7
01:36
some people even say 10 planets行星 to make it.
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甚至是10个地球 才能支持那样的生活方式
01:39
Clearly明确地 we don't have 10 planets行星.
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但非常明显 我们没有10个地球
01:41
Again, you know, mental心理, visual视觉, 10 planets行星, one planet行星,
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设想一下 10个地球 和1个地球
01:43
10 planets行星, one planet行星. Right?
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在你的心里 和在脑袋里设想一下
01:45
We don't have that. So that's one problem问题.
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我们没有10个地球 这就带来了问题
01:48
The second第二 problem问题 is that the planet行星 that we have
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第二个问题是 在我们所拥有的这一个地球上
01:50
is being存在 used in wildly疯狂 unfair不公平 ways方法. Right?
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不同的人对资源的消耗又是及其不平等的
01:54
North Americans美国人, such这样 as myself, you know,
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大多数北美洲的居民 比如我
01:57
we're basically基本上 sort分类 of wallowing打滚, gluttonous hogs,
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就像贪吃的野猪一样
01:59
and we're eating all sorts排序 of stuff东东.
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大量的消耗各种资源
02:01
And, you know, then you get all the way down
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然后你再看看别的地方
02:03
to people who live生活 in the Asia-Pacific亚太 region地区, or even more, Africa非洲.
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看看住在亚太地区以及非洲的人们
02:07
And people simply只是 do not have enough足够 to survive生存.
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住在那些地方的人连最基本的生存条件都得不到保障呢
02:09
This is producing生产 all sorts排序 of tensions紧张,
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因此 这就造成了各种紧张关系
02:11
all sorts排序 of dynamics动力学 that are deeply disturbing烦扰的.
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各种让人忧心的紧张气氛
02:14
And there's more and more people on the way. Right?
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而未来的日子里 地球上的人口还会变得越来越多
02:18
So, this is what the planet's地球上的 going to look like in 20 years年份.
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这就是20年后的地球的样貌
02:22
It's going to be a pretty漂亮 crowded place地点, at least最小 eight billion十亿 people.
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到那时候 人口密度将变得非常大 至少将达到80亿
02:25
So to make matters事项 even more difficult, it's a very young年轻 planet行星.
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更糟糕的是,那时候的地球将会变得年轻化
02:29
A third第三 of the people on this planet行星 are kids孩子.
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三分之一的人将会是儿童
02:32
And those kids孩子 are growing生长 up in a completely全然 different不同 way
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这些儿童,不管他们住在哪里
02:35
than their parents父母 did, no matter where they live生活.
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都将在一个和他们父母完全不同的环境下成长
02:37
They've他们已经 been exposed裸露 to this idea理念 of our society社会, of our prosperity繁荣.
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他们知道我们这个所谓的发达社会的一些情况
02:42
And they may可能 not want to live生活 exactly究竟 like us.
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但是他们不一定会像我们这样过日子
02:45
They may可能 not want to be Americans美国人, or Brits英国人,
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他们也许不想像英国人或美国人
02:47
or Germans德国, or South Africans非洲人,
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或德国人、南非人 那样子过日子
02:49
but they want their own拥有 version
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他们想选择一种自己的生活方式
02:51
of a life which哪一个 is more prosperous繁荣, and more dynamic动态,
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一种更加富裕 更具活力
02:53
and more, you know, enjoyable其乐融融.
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更多乐趣的方式
02:55
And all of these things combine结合 to create创建
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这一切加起来
02:58
an enormous巨大 amount of torque扭矩 on the planet行星.
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将会给世界带来一股强大的张力
03:01
And if we cannot不能 figure数字 out a way to deal合同 with that torque扭矩,
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假如我们找不到应对这股张力的办法
03:04
we are going to find ourselves我们自己 more and more and more quickly很快
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我们就会发现
03:08
facing面对 situations情况 which哪一个 are simply只是 unthinkable不可思议的.
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我们会遇到越来越多不堪设想的局面
03:12
Everybody每个人 in this room房间 has heard听说 the worst-case最坏的情况下 scenarios场景.
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这个房间里每个人都知道最坏的结局是什么
03:14
I don't need to go into that.
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我这里就不再重复
03:16
But I will ask the question, what's the alternative替代?
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但是我想提出一个问题 有没有另一种结局?
03:18
And I would say that, at the moment时刻, the alternative替代 is unimaginable不可思议.
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我个人觉得另一种结局在目前来看是不太可能的
03:23
You know, so on the one hand we have the unthinkable不可思议的;
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所以你看,我们被夹在一个不堪设想
03:26
on the other hand we have the unimaginable不可思议.
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和一个难以设想的结局中
03:28
We don't know yet然而 how to build建立 a society社会
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我们现在还不知道怎么去建设一个社会
03:31
which哪一个 is environmentally环保 sustainable可持续发展,
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一个能够在环境上实现可持续发展的社会
03:33
which哪一个 is shareable共享 with everybody每个人 on the planet行星,
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一个人人都可以共享的社会
03:36
which哪一个 promotes促进 stability稳定性 and democracy民主 and human人的 rights权利,
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一个倡导稳定、民主和人权的社会
03:40
and which哪一个 is achievable实现 in the time-frame大体时间 necessary必要
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在危机到来之前
03:43
to make it through通过 the challenges挑战 we face面对.
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可以建成的社会
03:46
We don't know how to do this yet然而.
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我们还不知道该怎么做
03:48
So what's WorldchangingWorldchanging?
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好 那什么是“改变世界”(Worldchanging)呢?
03:50
Well, WorldchangingWorldchanging you might威力 think of
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你可以将其视为
03:52
as being存在 a bit of a news新闻 service服务 for the unimaginable不可思议 future未来.
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关于难以构想的未来的一个新闻报道
03:57
You know, what we're out there doing is looking
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我们所做的报道
03:59
for examples例子 of tools工具, models楷模 and ideas思路,
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是关于一些工具、模型、以及创意的报道
04:02
which哪一个, if widely广泛 adopted采用, would change更改 the game游戏.
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这些东西假如能够得到大范围的推广使用 就能改变世界 是不是?
04:06
A lot of times, when I do a talk like this, I talk about things
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很多时候在做这类演讲的时候
04:09
that everybody每个人 in this room房间 I'm sure has already已经 heard听说 of,
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我谈的是这个房间里大多数人都听说过的东西
04:12
but most people haven't没有.
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但是地球上大多数人都还没有
04:14
So I thought today今天 I'd do something a little different不同,
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所以我想今天就来点特别的
04:16
and talk about what we're looking for, rather than saying, you know,
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跟大家一同展望未来,说说我们可以做什么
04:19
rather than giving you tried-and-true尝试和真正的 examples例子.
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而不是一味地讨论我们已经做了什么。
04:22
Talk about the kinds of things we're scoping作用域 out.
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去讲述一些我们正在探索中的事物
04:24
Give you a little peek窥视 into our editorial社论 notebook笔记本.
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让大家看看我们的创意库里都有哪些好的想法
04:26
And given特定 that I have 13 minutes分钟 to do this, this is going to go kind of quick.
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因为只有13分钟讲 所以我会讲得非常快
04:29
So, I don't know, just stick with me. Right?
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大家就跟着我的节拍走 好吗
04:31
So, first of all, what are we looking for? Bright Green绿色 city.
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首先我们想要的是什么 是绿色的城市
04:34
One of the biggest最大 levers杠杆 that we have in the developed发达 world世界
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发达国家为改变世界可以做的最有影响力的事情之一
04:37
for changing改变 the impact碰撞 that we have on the planet行星
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就是
04:39
is changing改变 the way that we live生活 in cities城市.
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改变我们在城市里的生活方式
04:41
We're already已经 an urban城市的 planet行星;
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我们这个地球已经走向城市化了
04:42
that's especially特别 true真正 in the developed发达 world世界.
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特别是在发达国家
04:45
And people who live生活 in cities城市 in the developed发达 world世界
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而生活在发达国家城市里的人口
04:47
tend趋向 to be very prosperous繁荣, and thus从而 use a lot of stuff东东.
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通常比较富裕 也会消耗较多的资源
04:49
If we can change更改 the dynamic动态,
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假如我们能够改变这一点
04:51
by first of all creating创建 cities城市 that are denser更密集 and more livable适于居住的 ...
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去建造一些更紧凑、更适合居住的城市
04:54
Here, for example, is Vancouver温哥华, which哪一个 if you haven't没有 been there,
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比如说在温哥华
04:56
you ought应该 to go for a visit访问. It's a fabulous极好 city.
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假如你没去过 你应该去那儿看看 那是一座非常棒的城市
04:58
And they are doing density密度, new density密度,
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他们现在正在建设更为密集的城市 这是一种新式的密集的理念
05:00
better than probably大概 anybody任何人 else其他 on the planet行星 right now.
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他们比世界上其他地区做的更好
05:02
They're actually其实 managing管理的 to talk North Americans美国人 out of driving主动 cars汽车,
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他们做到了让人们摆脱驾车出行的习惯
05:05
which哪一个 is a pretty漂亮 great thing.
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这是一件非常棒的事情
05:07
So you have density密度. You also have growth发展 management管理.
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有了密度以后 还需要有增长管理
05:09
You leave离开 aside在旁边 what is natural自然 to be natural自然.
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让那些本是自然的东西按照其自身的规律生长
05:12
This is in Portland波特兰. That is an actual实际 development发展.
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这才是真正的发展
05:15
That land土地 there will remain pasture牧场 in perpetuity如履薄冰.
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这块地往后都成为牧场
05:17
They've他们已经 bounded the city with a line线.
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他们创造了一个城市的界线
05:19
Nature性质, city. Nothing changes变化.
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自然 城市 任何东西都没有改变
05:22
Once一旦 you do those things, you can start开始 making制造 all sorts排序 of investments投资.
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一旦你做了这些事情之后 你就可以做大量的投资
05:25
You can start开始 doing things like, you know,
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做很多其他的事情
05:27
transit过境 systems系统 that actually其实 work to transport运输 people,
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比如建立一个名副其实的公交系统
05:30
in effective有效 and reasonably合理 comfortable自在 manners礼貌.
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使之既高效 又能给人们带来舒适感
05:33
You can also start开始 to change更改 what you build建立.
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你也可以改变你建房子的模式
05:35
This is the Beddington贝丁顿 Zero Energy能源 Development发展 in London伦敦,
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这是伦敦贝丁顿零能耗发展中心
05:38
which哪一个 is one of the greenest环保 buildings房屋 in the world世界. It's a fabulous极好 place地点.
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它是世界上最绿色的建筑之一 那里的建筑非常美丽
05:41
We're able能够 to now build建立 buildings房屋 that generate生成 all their own拥有 electricity电力,
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我们现在已经可以造出能够自我生产能量的房子
05:44
that recycle回收 much of their water,
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还能循环利用污水
05:46
that are much more comfortable自在 than standard标准 buildings房屋,
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并且舒适感也比标准的建筑好
05:49
use all-natural全天然 light, etc等等., and, over time, cost成本 less.
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用的是自然光 以及其他从长远来看可以更节约的方式
05:53
Green绿色 roofs屋顶. Bill法案 McDonough麦克唐纳 covered覆盖 that last night, so I won't惯于 dwell on that too much.
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还有绿色屋顶 麦唐纳昨晚就讲过这个 我这里不多讲
05:57
But once一旦 you also have people living活的
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而一旦你能够安排人们住得
05:59
in close proximity接近 to each other,
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彼此相隔较近
06:01
one of the things you can do is --
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你就可以
06:03
as information信息 technologies技术 develop发展 --
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依照资讯科技的发展模式
06:05
you can start开始 to have smart聪明 places地方.
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来实现智能安居的计划
06:07
You can start开始 to know where things are.
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你可以更清晰的知道东西都在哪里
06:09
When you know where things are, it becomes easier更轻松 to share分享 them.
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当你知道东西在哪里之后 共享这样的资源就变得容易了
06:11
When you share分享 them, you end结束 up using运用 less.
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而一旦人们更多的共享 人们所用的资源总量就会减少
06:14
So one great example is car-share汽车共享 clubs会所,
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一个很好的例子就是车共享俱乐部
06:16
which哪一个 are really starting开始 to take off in the U.S.,
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这样的俱乐部在美国才刚刚起步
06:18
have already已经 taken采取 off in many许多 places地方 in Europe欧洲, and are a great example.
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而在欧洲以及其他地方已经有较大的发展了
06:21
If you're somebody who drives驱动器, you know, one day a week,
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假如某人一周只开车一次
06:23
do you really need your own拥有 car汽车?
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他是否真的需要一辆车?
06:26
Another另一个 thing that information信息 technology技术 lets让我们 us do
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资讯科技带来的另一个好处
06:28
is start开始 figuring盘算 out how to use less stuff东东
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就是帮助我们了解并且监控我们的资源消耗量
06:30
by knowing会心, and by monitoring监控, the amount we're actually其实 using运用.
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了解自己用了多少资源 并且以此来避免无畏的浪费
06:35
So, here's这里的 a power功率 cord which哪一个 glows光晕 brighter光明 the more energy能源 that you use,
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比如这根电线 当你用的电越多的时候 它就变得越亮
06:38
which哪一个 I think is a pretty漂亮 cool concept概念,
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我认为这是一个非常棒的概念
06:40
although虽然 I think it ought应该 to work the other way around,
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但我觉得如果把它反过来使用,效果会更好
06:42
that it gets得到 brighter光明 the more you don't use.
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就是你用得越少 它就变得越亮
06:45
But, you know, there may可能 even be a simpler简单 approach途径.
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事实上 很多时候可以有更简单的做法
06:47
We could just re-label重新标签 things.
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比如改变我们对一些事情的叫法
06:49
This light switch开关 that reads, on the one hand, flashfloods暴洪,
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就拿一个开关来说,它一边写着“关”
06:51
and on the other hand, off.
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另一边写着“灯光泛滥"
06:53
How we build建立 things can change更改 as well.
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我们建造东西的方法也能加以改进
06:55
This is a bio-morphic生物的Morphic building建造.
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这是一个仿生建筑
06:57
It takes its inspiration灵感 in form形成 from life.
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其建造灵感来源于自然
07:01
Many许多 of these buildings房屋 are incredibly令人难以置信 beautiful美丽,
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很多这样的建筑都非常美
07:03
and also much more effective有效.
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并且更加高效
07:06
This is an example of bio-mimicry生物拟态,
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这是仿生建筑的一个例子
07:08
which哪一个 is something we're really starting开始 to look a lot more for.
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也是我们未来将会给予更多关注的一个地方
07:10
In this case案件, you have a shell贝壳 design设计
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大家看到的是一种贝壳式的设计
07:12
which哪一个 was used to create创建 a new kind of exhaust排气 fan风扇, which哪一个 is greatly非常 more effective有效.
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是当排气扇用的 它比其他的设计更高效
07:16
There's a lot of this stuff东东 happening事件; it's really pretty漂亮 remarkable卓越.
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很多类似这样的产物长在发展中,让人觉得无比欣慰
07:20
I encourage鼓励 you to look on WorldchangingWorldchanging if you're into it.
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如果你感兴趣的话,我极力推荐大家看看“改变世界”(Worldchanging)网站
07:22
We're starting开始 to cover this more and more.
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我们关于这方面的报道越来越多了
07:24
There's also neo-biological新生物 design设计,
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还有新型的生物设计
07:26
where more and more we're actually其实 using运用 life itself本身
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我们正在越来越多的使用生物体本身
07:28
and the processes流程 of life to become成为 part部分 of our industry行业.
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并且将生物学的概念融入到我们的工业生产当中
07:31
So this, for example, is hydrogen-generating氢气产生 algae藻类.
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这是一种能够制作氢气的蓝藻
07:34
So we have a model模型 in potential潜在, an emerging新兴 model模型 that we're looking for
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我们正在寻找一种具有潜在发展动力的 成型中的模式
07:38
of how to take the cities城市 most of us live生活 in,
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通过这个模式
07:41
and turn them into Bright Green绿色 cities城市.
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我们希望能够把大多数人居住的城市转变为绿色城市
07:43
But unfortunately不幸, most of the people on the planet行星 don't live生活 in the cites引用 we live生活 in.
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但不幸的是 地球上绝大多数的人都不是生活在跟我们一样的城市
07:48
They live生活 in the emerging新兴 megacities特大城市 of the developing发展 world世界.
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我们大多住在发展中国家的发展区
07:51
And there's a statistic统计 I often经常 like to use,
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我经常引用一个数据
07:53
which哪一个 is that we're adding加入 a city of Seattle西雅图 every一切 four days,
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那就是 每四天 地球上就会多出一座如西雅图那个规模的城市
07:56
a city the size尺寸 of Seattle西雅图 to the planet行星 every一切 four days.
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或者是像西雅图那样的城市
07:59
I was giving a talk about two months个月 ago,
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两个月前 我做了一次演讲
08:01
and this guy, who'd谁愿意 doneDONE some work with the U.N., came来了 up to me
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结束后,一个曾在联合国工作的人找到了我
08:03
and was really flustered, and he said, look,
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他说他听了我的演讲感到非常气愤
08:05
you've got that totally完全 wrong错误; it's totally完全 wrong错误.
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对我说 你讲的完全错误
08:07
It's every一切 seven days.
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应该是每七天多出一座那样的城市
08:10
So, we're adding加入 a city the size尺寸 of Seattle西雅图 every一切 seven days,
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好吧 我们每七天就多出一座如西雅图
08:13
and most of those cities城市 look more like this than the city that you or I live生活 in.
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而且大多数这样的城市会是这个样子 而不像我们居住的城市
08:17
Most of those cites引用 are growing生长 incredibly令人难以置信 quickly很快.
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并且它们成长得非常迅速
08:20
They don't have existing现有 infrastructure基础设施;
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那里没有现成的基础设施
08:22
they have enormous巨大 numbers数字 of people who are struggling奋斗的 with poverty贫穷,
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很多人在贫困线上挣扎
08:25
and enormous巨大 numbers数字 of people are trying to figure数字 out
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很多人在寻思
08:27
how to do things in new ways方法.
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如何运用新的思路去解决问题
08:29
So what do we need in order订购 to make developing发展 nation国家
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我们可以做点什么
08:33
megacities特大城市 into Bright Green绿色 megacities特大城市?
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把这些发展中国家里的新兴城市变成绿色城市?
08:36
Well, the first thing we need is, we need leapfrogging跳跃式.
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我们首先需要的是蛙跳式发展
08:39
And this is one of the things that we are looking for everywhere到处.
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而这一点我们在所有地方都看得到
08:42
The idea理念 behind背后 leapfrogging跳跃式 is that
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其本质内涵就是
08:44
if you are a person, or a country国家, who is stuck卡住 in a situation情况
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假如一个人或一个国家
08:47
where you don't have the tools工具 and technologies技术 that you need,
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因为缺乏工具和技术而难以发展
08:50
there's no reason原因 for you to invest投资 in last generation's一代 technologies技术. Right?
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那么是没有必要去投资于陈旧的技术的
08:56
That you're much better off, almost几乎 universally举世,
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假如你采用一些低成本或适合本地使用的新技术
08:58
looking for a low-cost低成本 or locally本地 applicable适用 version of the newest最新 technology技术.
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你的日子会过得更好
09:03
One place地点 we're all familiar with seeing眼看 this is with cell细胞 phones手机. Right?
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手机就是一个很好的例子
09:07
All throughout始终 the developing发展 world世界, people are going directly to cell细胞 phones手机,
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发展中国家的人都在开始使用手机
09:11
skipping跳绳 the whole整个 landline座机 stage阶段.
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他们直接跳过了座机电话这一步
09:13
If there are landlines固定电话 in many许多 developing发展 world世界 cities城市,
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假如说 在某些国家有座机电话的话
09:15
they're usually平时 pretty漂亮 crappy蹩脚的 systems系统 that break打破 down a lot
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那都是些很烂的设施 几乎不能发挥作用
09:18
and cost成本 enormous巨大 amounts of money.
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反而需要更多的财力去维修
09:20
So I rather like this picture图片 here.
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所以我更喜欢看到这样的图景
09:22
I particularly尤其 like the GaneshGanesh神 in the background背景, talking on the cell细胞 phone电话.
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尤其是后面那个打手机的象头神
09:26
So what we have, increasingly日益, is cell细胞 phones手机 just permeating渗透 out through通过 society社会.
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我们社会上越来越多的 将会是手机
09:30
We've我们已经 heard听说 all about this here this week,
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我们上周就已经谈过这事情了
09:32
so I won't惯于 say too much more than that, other than to say
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我这里不多说
09:34
what is true真正 for cell细胞 phones手机 is true真正 for all sorts排序 of technologies技术.
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只想说 手机是这样子 其他技术也是这样子
09:39
The second第二 thing is tools工具 for collaboration合作,
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第二个是合作的工具
09:42
be they systems系统 of collaboration合作, or intellectual知识分子 property属性 systems系统
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不管是合作之系统 还是知识产权体系
09:45
which哪一个 encourage鼓励 collaboration合作. Right?
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他们都鼓励合作 对吧
09:47
When you have free自由 ability能力 for people to freely自如 work together一起 and innovate创新,
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当人们可以共同参与某件事情的时候 他们的积极性会更高
09:51
you get different不同 kinds of solutions解决方案.
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你会得到各种不同的反馈
09:53
And those solutions解决方案 are accessible无障碍 in a different不同 way
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穷人和富人要寻找解决方案
09:56
to people who don't have capital首都. Right?
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他们的的门道也不一样
09:58
So, you know, we have open打开 source资源 software软件,
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我们有开源程序员
10:01
we have Creative创作的 Commons下议院 and other kinds of CopyleftCopyleft的 solutions解决方案.
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我们有Creative Commons以及其他的非盈利性授权协议
10:06
And those things lead to things like this.
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它们所带来的正如这张照片所展示的
10:08
This is a TelecentroTelecentro in Sao圣保罗 Paulo圣保罗.
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这是巴西圣保罗的电信中心
10:11
This is a pretty漂亮 remarkable卓越 program程序
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这是一个非常好的计划
10:13
using运用 free自由 and open打开 source资源 software软件, cheap低廉, sort分类 of hacked-together砍死在一起 machines,
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他们使用自由开源软件 以及一些废置的机器
10:17
and basically基本上 sort分类 of abandoned buildings房屋 --
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还有一幢旧建筑
10:20
has put together一起 a bunch of community社区 centers中心
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就搭起了多个社区中心
10:22
where people can come in, get high-speed高速 internet互联网 access访问,
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人们可以去到那里上网
10:25
learn学习 computer电脑 programming程序设计 skills技能 for free自由.
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学习编程 一切都是免费的
10:29
And a quarter-million25万 people every一切 year use these now in Sao圣保罗 Paulo圣保罗.
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圣保罗每一年有25万人使用这样的服务
10:33
And those quarter-million25万 people are some of the poorest最穷 people in Sao圣保罗 Paolo保罗.
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并且他们大多数是圣保罗最贫穷的人
10:36
I particularly尤其 like the little LinuxLinux的 penguin企鹅 in the back. (Laughter笑声)
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我尤其喜欢后面那个Linux企鹅
10:40
So one of the things that that's leading领导 to is a sort分类 of southern南部的 cultural文化 explosion爆炸.
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由此而触发了南半球的文化爆炸
10:45
And one of the things we're really, really interested有兴趣 in at WorldchangingWorldchanging
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我们Worldchanging最最关注的一点
10:48
is the ways方法 in which哪一个 the south is re-identifying重新识别 itself本身,
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就是南半球如何重新自我定位
10:52
and re-categorizing重新归类 itself本身 in ways方法
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重新把自己放到合适的地方
10:55
that have less and less to do with most of us in this room房间.
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而不是单纯学习我们
10:58
So it's not, you know, Bollywood宝莱坞 isn't just answering回答 Hollywood好莱坞. Right?
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宝莱坞不仅仅是在冲击好莱坞
11:03
You know, Brazilian巴西人 music音乐 scene现场 isn't just answering回答 the major重大的 labels标签.
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巴西音乐也不是为了要抗衡主流音乐
11:06
It's doing something new. There's new things happening事件.
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他们是在寻找新的做事方式 而这样的方式正在出现
11:09
There's interplay相互作用 between之间 them. And, you know, you get amazing惊人 things.
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这是一个双方相互学取长补短的过程
11:12
Like, I don't know if any of you have seen看到 the movie电影 "City of God?"
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不知大家看过《上帝之城》没有?
11:15
Yeah, it's a fabulous极好 movie电影 if you haven't没有 seen看到 it.
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一部相当出色的电影
11:18
And it's all about this question, in a very artistic艺术的 and indirect间接 kind of way.
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整个片子都是这个主题 但却是通过艺术化以及间接的手法展现出来
11:21
You have other radical激进 examples例子
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还有别的更为让人激动的例子
11:23
where the ability能力 to use cultural文化 tools工具 is spreading传播 out.
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那是全新的文化交流的方式
11:26
These are people who have just been visited参观 by
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这班孩子刚刚迎来了
11:28
the Internet互联网 bookmobile流动图书馆 in Uganda乌干达.
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乌干达因特网流动图书室的人员
11:30
And who are waving挥手 their first books图书 in the air空气,
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他们正在挥舞自己拿到手的第一本书
11:32
which哪一个, I just think that's a pretty漂亮 cool picture图片. You know?
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我认为这是一张很棒的照片,对不对?
11:35
So you also have the ability能力 for people to start开始 coming未来 together一起
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你还能让人们站出来
11:39
and acting演戏 on their own拥有 behalf代表 in political政治 and civic公民 ways方法,
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通过政治和文明的方式去保护自己的权益
11:45
in ways方法 that haven't没有 happened发生 before.
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以前还从未曾发生过这种事情
11:48
And as we heard听说 last night, as we've我们已经 heard听说 earlier this week,
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我们昨晚和本周早些时候 就已经听说
11:50
are absolutely绝对, fundamentally从根本上 vital重要 to the ability能力 to craft手艺 new solutions解决方案,
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这些行动对于人们寻找到新的解决之道
11:56
is we've我们已经 got to craft手艺 new political政治 realities现实.
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去争取新的政治图景具有绝对的重要价值
11:59
And I would personally亲自 say that we have to craft手艺 new political政治 realities现实,
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我个人认为 我们需要重塑一种新的政治
12:03
not only in places地方 like India印度, Afghanistan阿富汗, Kenya肯尼亚, Pakistan巴基斯坦,
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不但是在印度 阿富汗 肯尼亚 巴基斯坦
12:08
what have you, but here at home as well.
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或者其他你想象得到的地方 在美国本土 我们同样需要这么做
12:10
Another另一个 world世界 is possible可能.
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另一种世界是可能的
12:12
And sort分类 of the big motto座右铭 of the anti-globalization反全球化 movement运动. Right?
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这是当年反全球化的口号 对不对?
12:16
We tweak that a lot.
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我们改了一下
12:18
We talk about how another另一个 world世界 isn't just possible可能; another另一个 world's世界 here.
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我们想说 另一种世界不仅仅是可能的 而且就在眼前
12:21
That it's not just that we have to sort分类 of imagine想像
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它不仅仅是说 我们要去想象
12:23
there being存在 a different不同, vague模糊 possibility可能性 out there,
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一个不一样的、模糊的世界
12:27
but we need to start开始 acting演戏 a little bit more on that possibility可能性.
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并且还要从自我做起 按照那样的生活模式来生活
12:31
We need to start开始 doing things like Lula卢拉, President主席 of Brazil巴西.
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我们需要像巴西总统卢拉那样做事情
12:34
How many许多 people knew知道 of Lula卢拉 before today今天?
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有多少人之前是知道卢拉这个名字的
12:37
OK, so, much, much better than the average平均 crowd人群, I can tell you that.
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好 很好 比我通常遇到的情况好多了
12:41
So Lula卢拉, he's full充分 of problems问题, full充分 of contradictions矛盾,
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卢拉本人也面对诸多的问题 他自己也是一个矛盾的体现
12:43
but one of the things that he's doing is,
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但他做的一件事情是
12:45
he is putting forward前锋 an idea理念 of how we engage从事 in international国际 relations关系 that
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他提出一个关于国际关系的主张
12:51
completely全然 shifts转变 the balance平衡 from the standard标准 sort分类 of north-south南北 dialogue对话
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不再按照传统的南北对立来看待国际问题
12:57
into a whole整个 new way of global全球 collaboration合作.
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而是从全球合作的角度来重新看待这一问题
13:01
I would keep your eye on this fellow同伴.
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我希望大家能继续关注他
13:04
Another另一个 example of this sort分类 of second第二 superpower超级大国 thing
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另外一种超级强大的力量
13:07
is the rise上升 of these games游戏 that are what we call "serious严重 play."
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就是我们通常所说的“严肃的游戏”
13:11
We're looking a lot at this. This is spreading传播 everywhere到处.
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我们平日也研究过许多 这些玩意正在全球扩散
13:13
This is from "A Force More Powerful强大." It's a little screenshot截图.
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这是“更加勇猛有力”的一个屏幕截图
13:16
"A Force More Powerful强大" is a video视频 game游戏 that,
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它是一款视频游戏
13:18
while you're playing播放 it, it teaches you how to engage从事
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玩家可以在玩的过程中学会如何
13:21
in non-violent非暴力 insurrection起义 and regime政权 change更改. (Laughter笑声)
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通过非暴力的方式来解决起义以及政权变更的突发事情
13:23
Here's这里的 another另一个 one. This is from a game游戏 called "Food餐饮 Force,"
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还有这个 叫“粮食力量”
13:26
which哪一个 is a game游戏 that teaches children孩子 how to run a refugee难民 camp.
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它是教孩子如何管理难民营的
13:30
These things are all contributing贡献 in a very dynamic动态 way
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所有这些都以一种动态的方式
13:34
to a huge巨大 rise上升 in, especially特别 in the developing发展 world世界,
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去点燃了人们 特别是发展中国家的人们
13:39
in people's人们 interest利益 in and passion for democracy民主.
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内心那种对民主的兴趣与热情
13:42
We get so little news新闻 about the developing发展 world世界
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我们对于发展中国家了解得如此少
13:45
that we often经常 forget忘记 that there are literally按照字面
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以至于我们常常忘记了 那里也有数以百万计的人
13:49
millions百万 of people out there struggling奋斗的 to change更改 things
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正在为追求
13:51
to be fairer更公平, freer自由, more democratic民主的, less corrupt腐败.
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更加民主更加开明的社会而奋斗
13:55
And, you know, we don't hear those stories故事 enough足够.
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但是 我们所听得到的这类新闻太少了
13:57
But it's happening事件 all over the place地点,
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但它正在全球的各个角落里发生
13:59
and these tools工具 are part部分 of what's making制造 it possible可能.
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而这些工具正是使得这些行动发生的原因
14:01
Now when you add all those things together一起,
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当你纵览这一切的时候
14:03
when you add together一起 leapfrogging跳跃式 and new kinds of tools工具,
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当你把蛙跳式发展与新式工具放在一起看的时候
14:05
you know, second第二 superpower超级大国 stuff东东, etc等等., what do you get?
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以及刚才提到的第二种超强力量等等,你得到的是什么?
14:09
Well, very quickly很快, you get a Bright Green绿色 future未来 for the developing发展 world世界.
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马上你就能预见一个明亮的绿色的未来
14:13
You get, for example, green绿色 power功率 spread传播 throughout始终 the world世界.
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比如说 可以在全世界范围内实现绿色能源
14:17
You get -- this is a building建造 in Hyderabad海得拉巴, India印度.
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还有 比如这个位于印度海德拉堡的建筑
14:19
It's the greenest环保 building建造 in the world世界.
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它是世界上最绿色的建筑
14:21
You get grassroots基层 solutions解决方案, things that work
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还有草根的绿色行动方案
14:23
for people who have no capital首都 or limited有限 access访问.
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这些方案可以为经济条件差的人提供便利
14:25
You get barefoot赤脚 solar太阳能 engineers工程师 carrying携带 solar太阳能 panels面板 into the remote远程 mountains.
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还有赤脚太阳能工程师 他们把太阳能电池板带到了遥远的村落
14:29
You get access访问 to distance距离 medicine医学.
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还有远程药物
14:31
These are Indian印度人 nurses护士 learning学习 how to use PDAs掌上电脑
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这些印度妇女正在学习使用PDA
14:34
to access访问 databases数据库 that have information信息
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来获取药物资讯
14:36
that they don't have access访问 to at home in a distant遥远 manner方式.
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这些资讯他们通过传统的方式是很难获取的
14:39
You get new tools工具 for people in the developing发展 world世界.
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发展中国家的人们还获得了新的工具
14:42
These are LED lights灯火 that help the roughly大致 billion十亿 people out there,
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这是LED灯管 全世界有10亿人受益于这样的灯管
14:46
for whom nightfall黄昏 means手段 darkness黑暗,
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没有了这样的工具 夜晚就是漆黑一片
14:48
to have a new means手段 of operating操作.
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根本无法开展生产
14:50
These are refrigerators冰箱 that require要求 no electricity电力;
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这些冰箱无须电力
14:53
they're pot within a pot design设计.
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那是一种盘套盘的设计
14:55
And you get water solutions解决方案. Water's水的 one of the most pressing紧迫 problems问题.
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还有关于水的解决方案 水危机是最为迫切的危机之一
14:58
Here's这里的 a design设计 for harvesting收获 rainwater雨水 that's super cheap低廉
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这是一种收集雨水的非常简便的方法
15:00
and available可得到 to people in the developing发展 world世界.
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发展中国家的人也能使用
15:02
Here's这里的 a design设计 for distilling蒸馏 water using运用 sunlight阳光.
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这是利用太阳能来净化饮用水
15:07
Here's这里的 a fog-catcher雾捕手, which哪一个, if you live生活 in a moist湿, jungle-like丛林般的 area,
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这是一个烟雾捕捉器 假如你生活在潮湿的地带
15:12
will distill蒸馏 water from the air空气 that's clean清洁 and drinkable饮用.
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它就能直接从空气中提取出水分
15:15
Here's这里的 a way of transporting传输 water.
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这是另一种运输水的方式
15:17
I just love this, you know -- I mean carrying携带 water is such这样 a drag拖动,
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我非常爱这个 要知道用肩膀拉水是非常辛苦的
15:20
and somebody just came来了 up with the idea理念 of well, what if you rolled热轧 it. Right?
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于是有人说 那能不能推着水桶走呢
15:23
I mean, that's a great design设计.
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我想说 这是一个伟大的设计
15:25
This is a fabulous极好 invention发明, LifeStraw生命吸管.
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这又是一个伟大的发明 它是一种救命的稻草
15:28
Basically基本上 you can suck吮吸 any water through通过 this
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通过这根草 你可以饮用任何地方的水
15:31
and it will become成为 drinkable饮用 by the time it hits点击 your lips嘴唇.
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当水送到你嘴边的时候 就可以喝了
15:34
So, you know, people who are in desperate殊死 straits海峡 can get this.
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那些生活在物资匮乏地区的人们正需要这样的东西。
15:37
This is one of my favorite喜爱 WorldchangingWorldchanging kinds of things ever.
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这是我最喜欢的一个改变世界的玩意
15:40
This is a merry-go-round旋转木马轮 invented发明 by the company公司 Roundabout迂回,
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这是由Roundabout公司开发的旋转木马
15:43
which哪一个 pumps water as kids孩子 play. You know?
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孩子一边玩 一边就给水泵提水
15:48
Seriously认真地 -- give that one a hand, it's pretty漂亮 great.
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说真的 这是一个很不错的创意
15:51
And the same相同 thing is true真正 for people who are in absolute绝对 crisis危机. Right?
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这对于那些处于危机地区的人而言 同样适用
15:55
We're expecting期待 to have upwards向上 of 200 million百万 refugees难民 by the year 2020
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我们预计 到了2020年的时候 世界将会有2亿难民
15:59
because of climate气候 change更改 and political政治 instability不稳定.
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由于气候变化以及政治不稳定
16:01
How do we help people like that?
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我们怎么去帮助这些人
16:03
Well, there's all sorts排序 of amazing惊人 new humanitarian人道主义 designs设计
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我们已经看到了各种各样新型的人本建筑设计
16:05
that are being存在 developed发达 in collaborative共同 ways方法 all across横过 the planet行星.
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正在以一种合作的方式在发展中国家铺开
16:08
Some of those designs设计 include包括 models楷模 for acting演戏,
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其中有些设计就包含了公民参与的成分
16:11
such这样 as new models楷模 for village instruction指令 in the middle中间 of refugee难民 camps营地.
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比如说在难民营中建造新的乡村
16:14
New models楷模 for pedagogy教育学 for the displaced流离失所.
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对于残障人士的新的教育模式
16:17
And we have new tools工具.
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还有新的工具
16:19
This is one of my absolute绝对 favorite喜爱 things anywhere随地.
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这是我看过的最令我喜欢的东西
16:21
Does anyone任何人 know what this is?
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有人知道它是什么吗?
16:23
Audience听众: It detects检测 landmines地雷.
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观众回答:它可以探测到地雷
16:24
Alex亚历克斯 Steffen斯特芬: Exactly究竟, this is a landmine-detecting地雷探测 flower.
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没错,这是一个扫雷花!
16:28
If you are living活的 in one of the places地方
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假如你生活在这样的地方
16:30
where the roughly大致 half-billion半十亿 unaccounted下落不明 for mines矿山 are scattered疏散,
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那里有5亿个地雷就散布在地面上 没人知道它们的确切位置
16:33
you can fling一扔 these seeds种子 out into the field领域.
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你可以向地里散布这样的种子
16:36
And as they grow增长 up, they will grow增长 up around the mines矿山,
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它们会在地雷边生长
16:40
their roots will detect检测 the chemicals化学制品 in them,
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它们的根系能够探测到地雷中的化学物质
16:43
and where the flowers花卉 turn red you don't step.
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假如花朵变红了 你就千万不要踩那个地方
16:48
Yeah, so seeds种子 that could save保存 your life. You know?
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这就是能够救活你的生命的种子
16:52
(Applause掌声)
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(掌声)
16:53
I also love it because it seems似乎 to me
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我喜欢这个的另一个原因是
16:55
that the example, the tools工具 we use to change更改 the world世界,
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我们所讲的改变世界的例子 工具
17:01
ought应该 to be beautiful美丽 in themselves他们自己.
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其本身也应该是美的
17:04
You know, that it's not just enough足够 to survive生存.
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因为单单求得生存是不够的
17:06
We've我们已经 got to make something better than what we've我们已经 got.
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我们需要做得比我们现在做的更好
17:10
And I think that we will.
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我认为我们可以做得到这一点
17:13
Just to wrap up, in the immortal不朽 words of H.G. Wells韦尔斯,
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最后用H.G. 威尔斯不朽的名言来作结
17:16
I think that better things are on the way.
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我认为我们将会看到更美好的东西
17:18
I think that, in fact事实, that "all of the past过去 is but the beginning开始 of a beginning开始.
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过去的一切,都仅仅是开端的开始
17:22
All that the human人的 mind心神 has accomplished完成
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人类心智所实现的
17:24
is but the dream梦想 before the awakening唤醒."
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不过是睡醒之前的一场梦
17:26
I hope希望 that that turns out to be true真正.
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我希望这个梦会变为事实
17:29
The people in this room房间 have given特定 me more confidence置信度 than ever that it will.
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而这个房间里的人让我更加坚信,这个梦会实现的。
17:32
Thank you very much.
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谢谢大家
17:33
(Applause掌声)
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(鼓掌)
Translated by Tony Yet
Reviewed by Zachary Lin Zhao

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Alex Steffen - Planetary futurist
Alex Steffen explores our planet's future, telling powerful, inspiring stories about the hard choices facing humanity ... and our opportunity to create a much better tomorrow.

Why you should listen

Do you ever wonder whether we should be optimistic or pessimistic about the future? If you want more reasons to think things may still turn out for the better, Alex Steffen's your man. He doesn't downplay the scope and scale of the problems we face. Instead, he shows that we have the tools within our grasp for meeting those massive challenges, if we have the will to use them.

This isn't just hopeful thinking, either. Steffen uses real-world examples and big-picture research to show us that a brighter, greener future is ours to choose, and his work has earned him the ear of leading cities, corporations and philanthropic foundations. As the New York Times said a recent profile, "Alex Steffen lays out the blueprint for a successful century."

After working as a journalist on four continents, Steffen co-founded and ran the online magazine Worldchanging.com from 2003-2010. In those seven years, he made Worldchanging one of the world's leading sustainability-related publications with an archive of almost 12,000 articles and a large global audience. He also edited an internationally best-selling book surveying innovative solutions to the planet's most pressing problems: Worldchanging: A User's Guide for the 21st Century. 

His most recent work is Carbon Zero, a book describing cities that create prosperity not climate change, accelerating their economies while reducing their climate emissions to zero. He is now at work on a new book and a television project. "The big open secret about sustainability work," he recently told Design Observer magazine, 'is not how bad things are. It is how good things can get."

More profile about the speaker
Alex Steffen | Speaker | TED.com

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