TEDGlobal 2007
Euvin Naidoo: Why invest in Africa
Euvin Naidoo：投資非洲
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南非投資銀行家尤維恩 奈多解釋爲什麽投資非洲極具意義
Euvin Naidoo - Investment banker
As leading advocate for Western Investment into Africa, BCG's Euvin Naidoo works with leading corporations and governments to strengthen trans-Atlantic economic ties. Full bio
As leading advocate for Western Investment into Africa, BCG's Euvin Naidoo works with leading corporations and governments to strengthen trans-Atlantic economic ties. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:26
Welcome to Africa! Or rather, I should say, welcome home.
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歡迎來到非洲！或者不如說，歡迎回家。
00:30
Because this is where it all really began, isn't it?
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因為這裡是生命起源的地方，不是嗎？
00:33
Looking at fossils dating back several millions of years --
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這裡數百萬年前的化石 --
00:36
it all points to evidence that life
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就是生命的證據
00:38
for the human species as we know it began right here.
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即是人類種族起源的地方。
00:44
We are on an amazing journey the next four days.
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接下來的四天 我們會踏上一趟奇妙的旅程。
00:48
You're going to hear stories of "Africa: The Next Chapter."
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下面的章節中，你們會聽到關於非洲的故事。
00:52
Fantastic tales, anecdotes from speakers.
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各位講者帶來的奇聞軼事。
00:54
But I want to turn that upside down for a moment,
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但之前我還是想把順序顛倒一下，
00:58
and get something out on the table and clear the air so to say.
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讓我們先把一些事情攤到檯面上，開誠佈公的談談。
01:03
What's the worst thing you've ever heard about Africa?
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你們聽到的關於非洲最糟糕的是什麽？
01:06
And this is not a rhetorical question.
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這可不是反問句哦。
01:07
I actually want answers from you.
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我確實想聽到你們的答案。
01:10
Go for it! The worst.
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大膽說吧！最糟的是啥。
01:13
Famine.
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饑荒。
01:15
Corruption.
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腐敗。
01:17
More.
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還有。
01:19
Genocide.
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種族屠殺。
01:21
AIDS.
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艾滋病。
01:24
Slavery.
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奴隸制度。
01:28
That's enough.
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可以了。
01:30
We've all heard these things.
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我們都聽到過這些事兒。
01:32
But this is about Africa, the story we have not heard.
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但今天要談的，是我們從未聽聞的關於非洲的事。
01:36
The stories that we want to know,
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那些我們想瞭解的，
01:38
and the stories that do exist about positive tales.
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真實存在具有正面意義的故事。
01:42
A part of my talk is going to be about investment opportunities
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也是我演講的內容
01:46
that exist on this continent,
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關於在這片大陸上的投資機會。
01:48
to separate the rhetoric from the reality, the fact from the fiction.
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拋開懷疑和謠傳，讓我們回到現實和真實。
01:52
To go to the actual data and statistics that exist
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用真實的統計數據
01:55
about the actual things that are happening on the ground
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來客觀地瞭解這片土地上湧現的
01:58
that make Africa a realistic investment opportunity and option for you.
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投資機會和選擇。
02:05
So let's get going because Africa,
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因為非洲處於，
02:06
to some degree, is on a turnaround.
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某種程度上的，變革之中。
02:10
A turnaround in terms of how it manages its image,
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關於它如何管理自己的形象，
02:14
and how it takes control of its own destiny.
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掌握自己命運的變革。
02:17
And turnarounds are part and parcel
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而變革是局部和小幅度的，
02:19
of what I have focused on for most of my professional career.
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就我職業生涯中所關注的重要領域來說。
02:23
And it all started almost a decade ago,
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大概十年前，
02:26
as a young consultant at McKinsey & Company
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我還只是麥肯錫一名年輕的諮詢師
02:28
at their first African office in Johannesburg.
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在約翰内斯堡的首個非洲辦事處。
02:31
And there we worked with leading CEOs
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我們和各企業總裁一起工作
02:34
on African issues, and African companies on turnarounds,
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研究在變革中的非洲和非洲企業 --
02:37
making the companies not just the best in Africa
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幫助這些企業成為不僅是非洲，
02:40
but the best globally.
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也是全球最好的公司。
02:42
But I really formalized this focus on turnarounds
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但我真正開始關注變革
02:46
when I was completing my MBA in the United States.
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是我在美國剛完成MBA學業的時候。
02:49
It all began with a fantastic phone call.
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我接到一個特別的電話。
02:51
It was from Rosabeth Moss Kanter,
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是羅莎白•摩絲•坎特，
02:54
Harvard Business School guru and a professor of mine.
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哈佛商學院的領軍人物，同時也是我的導師。
02:56
And she said, "I want to write a case, Euvin --
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她說：『Euvin, 我想寫個案例 --
02:59
a case on a public-sector leader
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關於公共事業部門領袖的案例
03:01
that has lessons for the corporate world."
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這些案例對企業界很有借鑒意義。』
03:05
And the leader that came to mind was Nelson Mandela.
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我第一個想到的領導人就是納爾遜•曼德拉。
03:09
Because Nelson Mandela, as he took over power
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因為他是
03:12
as the first democratically-elected president of South Africa,
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南非首個民主選舉推出的總統，
03:15
faced a situation of a country
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執政時國家正處於
03:17
that could have slid into the abyss of chaos.
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混亂深淵的邊緣。
03:20
But he started the country on a path of a positive cycle.
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但是他首先把國家推向正性循環的軌道中。
03:24
Now the case, "Nelson Mandela: Change Leader,"
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現在這個案例，『曼德拉：變革型領導』，
03:27
became part of the research base for a chapter
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成為羅莎白新書的一個章節
03:30
in Rosabeth's new book called "Confidence."
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那本書名為：《信心：創造成功的循環》。
03:34
And "Confidence" became a New York Times bestseller
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是紐約時報的暢銷書
03:38
and topped Business Week's hardcover bestseller list.
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并列入《商業週刊》的精裝書暢銷榜中。
03:41
And why I tell you this story is because later, when I was interviewed
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爲什麽提到這個故事呢？因為在那之後不久，我就面試了SABC公司
03:44
on SABC Africa, on a pan-African broadcast, they asked,
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SABC是一個泛非洲的廣播公司，面試中他們問到，
03:47
"What is your key lesson, or the key thing you enjoy the most?" --
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『在這個案例中你學到了什麽，或者你最喜歡什麽？』--
03:51
because it was a huge privilege to be part of such a project.
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能編寫這樣一個案例實屬榮幸。
03:54
The lesson from that was that it was Africa -- an African story --
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我學到的東西就是非洲，非洲的故事，
03:59
that was used to share news with the rest of the world
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和其他國家想分享的訊息就是
04:03
of what the benchmark can be for corporate turnarounds.
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什麽是企業變革的標杆。
04:06
Africa was being used as a success story!
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而非洲就是這樣一個成功的案例！
04:11
So I want to share with you a personal story
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我想和大家分享我個人的故事
04:13
about a turnaround or a transformation.
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和關於變革或者轉變的故事。
04:15
And that has to do with me
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這事情就發生在我身上。
04:17
because in 1994, I packed a few things into a backpack
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在1994年，我打包好行李
04:21
and headed off for a year of travel
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開始長達一年的旅行
04:23
in the middle of my university career.
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那還是我大學進行到一半的時候。
04:26
You should have seen my parents' reaction!
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你們可以想像我父母的反應了！
04:28
(Laughter)
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（笑）
04:29
But very soon, I found myself from the southern part of Africa,
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不久，我從非洲南部 --
04:33
in South Africa -- at the very north, in Egypt.
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南非 -- 來到了非洲的最北端，埃及。
04:36
And I sought out the most remote places.
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我去最偏僻的地方。
04:38
I went to the Siwa Oasis. That was one of my stops.
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來到了錫瓦綠洲-我其中的一個落腳點。
04:41
And the Siwa Oasis is famous for several things,
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錫瓦綠洲之所以出名有很多因素，
04:43
but the key thing is that it was the place
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但我去的最主要原因是因為
04:45
that Alexander the Great went to
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亞歷山大大帝
04:48
when he wanted to find out what his destiny had in store for him.
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來過此處尋找他的神諭。
04:51
And legend has it that Alexander trekked through this desert.
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傳說中，亞歷山大長途跋涉穿過這片沙漠。
04:54
Half his battalion was wiped out in the sandstorm.
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大半的部隊都淹沒在沙塵暴中。
04:57
And myth says that he had an audience with the oracle,
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在神話中，他接見了一個帶著神喻的人，
05:00
and it foretold his destiny of greatness.
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它預言了亞歷山大偉大的命運。
05:03
This was 300 BC.
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這是公元300年前的事。
05:05
So Africa had long been seen as a place to go to for answers.
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所以非洲自古以來就是一個尋求答案的地方。
05:11
Now, the thing I remember about Siwa
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我記憶中的關於錫瓦的
05:14
was the magical view of the sky at night.
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就是它迷人夜色天空。
05:17
With no natural light source, Siva is one of these amazing places
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沒有非自然的光源，錫瓦是這樣一個迷人的地方
05:20
that when you look up you see a perfect tapestry.
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一抬頭就看見絲絨般的完美星空。
05:24
Fast forward to 2002.
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快速轉到了2002。
05:26
I'm sitting in Cambridge, Massachusetts
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當我坐在坎布裡奇，馬薩諸州
05:28
at the Healthcare Development Conference.
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參加健康發展會議的時候。
05:30
And I see the same picture, but from the opposite side.
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我看到了同樣的圖片，但那是從另一個角度。
05:33
A satellite picture looking down at the earth.
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是一張俯瞰地球的衛星照片。
05:38
And it was that picture that made such a profound impact on me
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這張照片對我影響深遠
05:41
because I'll never forget it. I remember the very moment.
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至今令我無法忘懷，那一刻就記住了。
05:44
And I wanted to share that image with you of what I saw at that point.
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我想和大家分享那刻我看到的景色。
05:50
The first thing that I saw was North America at night --
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第一個圖片是我看到的北美的夜景 --
05:55
glowing, in all its glory. A warm feeling. Light.
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光芒四射，充滿榮耀。非常溫馨。看那光。
06:05
And then I saw it -- Africa. Quite literally the "Dark Continent."
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然後我看到了這張圖片 -- 非洲，毫不誇張的『黑暗大陸』。
06:15
And while Africa may be dark,
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那一刻非洲是黑暗的，
06:17
the thing that brought the message home to me
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而我帶回家的訊息是
06:20
was that this is the challenge we are facing,
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這是我們面臨的挑戰，
06:23
but it's also the opportunity.
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但也是個機遇。
06:26
Because whilst Africa may be dark -- other than the few specks
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因為非洲可能是黑暗的 -- 相對於
06:29
that exist north and in the south and other areas --
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它的北面、南面或者地區上的其他地方 --
06:33
it's aglow with the light in the hearts
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相對於那些燈火通明的核心地區
06:35
of the millions of people that are there.
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成千上萬的人民。
06:37
Entrepreneurs, dynamic people, people with hope.
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企業家、精力充沛的人民、充滿希望的人民。
06:41
It was George Kimble, the geographer, who said
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正如地理學家喬治•金布力所說
06:44
that, "The only thing dark about Africa is our ignorance of it."
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“我們覺得非洲只有黑色，根源是我們的無知”
06:49
So let's start shedding light on this amazing eclectic continent
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讓我們開始照亮這片大陸
06:53
that has so much to offer.
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如此富饒的大陸。
06:55
Let's start unpacking it.
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讓我們揭開她的面紗吧。
07:00
Africa is the second-largest continent, a landmass second from Asia.
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非洲是次於亞洲的世界第二大陸。
07:07
It also is the second most populated continent,
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人口居世界第二，
07:09
with 900 million people.
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擁有9億人口。
07:11
In fact -- coming back to the land mass -- Africa is so big
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實際上，從陸地面積看 --非洲如此之大以至 --
07:14
that you could fit in the continental United States,
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可以裝下整個美國，
07:17
China, and the entire Europe into Africa, and still have space.
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中國和整個歐洲，還有空地。
07:22
Africa is home to over 1,000 languages --
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非洲有超過1000種語言 --
07:25
2,000 is another estimate that's out there --
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也有人估計2000 --
07:28
with over 2,000 languages and dialects.
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有超過2000鐘語言加上方言。
07:31
But you could say, "Invest in Africa in over 1,000 languages,
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你可能會說：『在超過1000種語言的非洲投資，
07:35
and it wouldn't make a difference."
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白費力氣。』
07:38
What does the data say?
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然而數據怎麼說呢？
07:40
As an investment banker, I'm in the cross-flow of information
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作為一個投資銀行家， 我總處於各種交錯的信息中
07:44
and the changes that are taking place in capital markets.
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處於瞬息萬變的資本市場。
07:47
So I want to share with you some of these bellwether signals, or signs,
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所以我想和你分享這些變革前的預兆，或者說訊號，
07:50
and winds of change that are sweeping this continent.
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和這片大陸的變化的訊息。
07:52
So let's start on that.
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讓我們從這開始。
07:54
And let's start at the high level, on the macro-factors.
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從高層次的宏觀因素入手。
07:56
Inflation, in general, is coming down across Africa --
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一般來看，整個非洲的通貨膨脹都在下降 --
07:59
that's the first sign --
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這是第一個訊號 --
08:01
in many countries reaching double-digit figures.
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許多國家已經達到兩位數的通貨膨脹。
08:03
So let's start looking at some of those.
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我們看下這些數據。
08:05
I call it my Z.E.N. cluster.
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我稱它們為：Z.E.N集合。
08:07
Zambia: from 2004 to 2006, moves from the 18 percent in inflation
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Z：贊比亞，從2004到2006年，通貨膨脹從18%
08:12
to the nine percent.
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降低到9%的通脹率。
08:14
Egypt: from the 16 percent to about 8.4 percent.
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E：埃及，由16%降低到8.4%
08:19
Nigeria: a similar situation,
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N：尼日利亞，情況相同：
08:21
from the 16 percent to the eight percent. Single digits.
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從16%降低到8%。個位數。
08:27
More fascinating, you have other countries -- South Africa,
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更有意思的是，其他國家 -- 如南非，
08:31
Mauritius, Namibia -- all in single digits.
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毛里求斯和納米比亞 -- 通脹都是個位數。
08:38
But that's just part of the story. You have a similar trend with currencies --
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這只是部份情況。貨幣也有類似趨勢 --
08:41
currencies going through an extreme time of stability.
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貨幣已經度過了極端的時期慢慢趨於平穩。
08:47
But that's looking at the big picture.
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這是宏觀層面。
08:49
And the first myth to dispel is that Africa is not a country.
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首先，第一個更正的觀念是，非洲並不是一個國家。
08:55
It's made up --
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它只是一個統稱 --
08:57
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
08:58
It's made up of 53 different countries.
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它是由53個不同的國家組成。
09:02
So the very definition -- to say "invest in Africa" is a no-go.
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所以可以肯定，說『投資非洲』完全不合適。
09:06
It's meaningless.
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也無意義。
09:08
Each country has a unique value proposition.
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因為每個國家都有其獨特的主張。
09:11
You can make money, you can lose money in Africa.
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在非洲你可能賺到錢，也可能賠錢。
09:14
But opportunities, boy oh boy, they exist.
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但是機會，大傢伙啊，大傢伙，還是存在的。
09:17
And this is what today is about --
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這就是我們今天要探討的 --
09:20
it's about discussing those very opportunities.
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探討這些機會。
09:24
So let's start getting into the countries
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讓我們開始看這些國家
09:26
and into the specific material and data.
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用具體的材料和數據來說話。
09:31
I was recently elected, as Emeka mentioned,
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我最近被推選為，有如Emeka提到，
09:33
as the President of the South African Chamber of Commerce in America.
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北美南非商會會長。
09:36
And I'm very proud and happy to be in that role
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當選此位令我驕傲和欣喜
09:39
because it is a fascinating position to be in.
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因為它是一個很有吸引力的職位。
09:41
To hear this dialogue that's just increasing in tenor and velocity,
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我說這些話只是想促進那些，
09:45
of decisions about trade and companies wanting to come.
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想來非洲發展的公司。
09:49
So the first port of call: let's talk a little bit about South Africa.
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第一個讓我們談談關於南非的事情。
09:51
But not the South Africa we always talk about --
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但不是關於我們常說的南非 --
09:53
the gold, the minerals, the First World infrastructure --
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那些黃金、礦產和一流的基礎設施建設 --
09:56
a bit about the other side of it.
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談的是與這些無關的東西。
09:58
For example, South Africa was recently voted as the top destination
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例如：南非最近被1000家英國公司評選為
10:02
for the top 1,000 UK companies for offshore call-centers.
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最佳離岸呼叫中心
10:06
Same language, timeline, et cetera. Makes sense.
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相同的語言、時區等，這毫無疑問。
10:11
Other headlines that have recently reached South Africa
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最近南非的頭條新聞是
10:13
were Bain Capital and KKR, the big boys of private equity.
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私募領域大佬貝恩資本和KKR資本抵達南非。
10:18
Headline in South Africa: "They have landed." Quite ominous.
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南非的新聞頭條是：『他們來了！』非常悲觀。
10:21
But what were they there for? To acquire assets.
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但他們去那裡幹嘛呢？爲了獲得資產。
10:25
Bing Capital's acquisition of Edcon, a large retailer, is testimony
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獲取Edcon公司的股份，Edcon是當地一家很大的零售商
10:32
to the confidence they are starting to place in the economy.
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這些事實表明他們開始了他們的商業進程。
10:35
Because it is actually a long-term play.
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因為這是一個真正的長期投資。
10:37
Being a retailer, it is a play on the belief
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作為一家零售商，他堅信
10:39
that this middle-class that's growing will continue to grow,
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中產階層的數目會持續增加，
10:43
that the boom and the confidence in consumer spending will continue.
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消費者消費的繁榮和信心也會增加。
10:49
But the story of Africa, and my focus, is beyond South Africa
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但是關於非洲的故事，我關注的交點，卻非南非
10:54
because there's so much happening.
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因為還有太多正在發生的事情
10:56
Undoubtedly, Nigeria is clearly a hot spot.
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毫無疑問，尼日利亞是一個明顯的熱點。
11:00
Challenges -- and we will hear a lot about Nigeria in these four days.
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挑戰-下來四天我們將會聽到更多關於尼日利亞的事情。
11:04
But looking at Goldman Sachs' work -- we had the famous BRIC Report.
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但看看高盛投資做的工作-我們有著名的“金磚四國”報告
11:09
The new report, "The Next Eleven," highlights that by 2020
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最新報告，'N-11'，凸顯出2020年
11:13
Nigeria is going to be amongst the top 10 economies in the world.
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尼日利亞會成為世界前10位的經濟體。
11:17
It's an investment opportunity. Think about that.
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這是一個投資機會，考慮下。
11:21
Is anyone -- our banks, our investors --
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有沒有人 -- 我們的銀行家，我们的投資者 --
11:24
seriously thinking about going to Nigeria?
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認真考慮去尼日利亞呢？
11:25
If you haven't, why not?
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如果你還沒有，爲什麽不呢？
11:27
What's going on in Nigeria? A couple of things.
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尼日利亞正在發生什麽事情？很多。
11:31
I want to talk about it from the perspective of capital markets.
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我想從資本市場的角度討論這個。
11:35
Bellwether signs again.
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接著從領先企業的信號來看看。
11:38
Guarantee Trust Bank recently issued the first Euro Bond
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信託擔保銀行最近發行第一個歐洲債券
11:42
out of Africa, and this excludes South Africa.
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在非洲之外，但不包括南非。
11:45
But the first Eurobond, the raising of international capital
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第一個歐洲債券，促使了國際離岸資本
11:48
offshore, off its own balance sheet,
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拋開了自己的收支平衡，
11:51
without any sovereign backing --
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沒有國家主權的擔保 --
11:53
that is an indication of the confidence that is taking place in that economy.
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這是對經濟體充滿信心的信號。
11:57
Without any sovereign backing,
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沒有國家主權的支持，
11:59
a Nigerian company raising capital offshore.
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一家尼日利亞公司吸引到離岸資本。
12:01
It's just a sign of things to come.
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這是對將要發生變化的訊號。
12:02
Looking at the oil industry, Africa provides 18 percent
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看看石油工業，非洲提供了18%
12:07
of the U.S.'s oil supply, with the Middle East just 16 percent.
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美國石油供應量，而中東只有16%
12:11
It's an important strategic partner.
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非洲是一個很重要的戰略夥伴。
12:13
Let's put Nigeria in perspective.
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我們全面地看下尼日利亞。
12:15
2.2 to 2.4 million barrels of oil a day --
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每日產220到240萬加侖石油。
12:18
the same league as Kuwait, the same league as Venezuela.
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和科威特、委內瑞拉持平。
12:23
But with Africa, let's start being careful about this.
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但在非洲，我們開始謹慎對待這個事情。
12:26
And Emeka and I have had these discussions.
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Emeka 和我曾經討論過這個事情。
12:28
We have to move away from what's called "the curse of the commodities."
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我們不得不離開被稱為『日用品的詛咒』
12:32
Because it's not about oil, it's not about commodities.
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因為它無關乎石油，無關乎日用品。
12:34
For Africa to truly be sustainable,
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對非洲而言真正需要的是可持續性，
12:36
we have to move beyond to other industries.
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我們必須跨出到其他行業。
12:39
So let's unpack those very quickly,
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我們也將會很快的擺脫掉，
12:41
and I'm going to move through these very, very, very fast
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我也在非常非常迅速地遠離這些領域，
12:43
because I can see that clock counting down.
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因為我也看見開始倒計時了。
12:47
What else is going on there? Egypt.
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非洲還在發生些什麽？埃及。
12:50
Egypt is launching a first large industrial zone --
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埃及正在發展一個大工業區 --
12:53
2.8 billion investment.
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投資28個億。
12:55
The announcement just came out the last few weeks.
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這個消息發佈于幾周前。
12:57
Close to the Mediterranean, near Alexandria --
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此區域靠近地中海，臨近亞歷山大港 --
13:01
textiles, petrochemicals.
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面對紡織品、石油化學品。
13:03
It's being managed by a Singaporean-based management company.
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正被一個新加坡管理公司管理。
13:07
So they want to emerge as an industrial powerhouse
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所以他們想成為一個工業大國
13:10
across the industries -- away from oil.
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擁有各種行業 -- 以擺脫石油。
13:12
Let's look at agriculture. Let's look at forestry.
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我們來看看農業，看下林業。
13:15
What's going on there?
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那里發生了什麽？
13:16
In Tanzania last week, we had the launch
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上周在坦桑尼亞，我們發佈了
13:20
of the East African Organic Produce Standard.
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東非有機作物生產標準。
13:24
Again, gathering together farmers, gathering together stakeholders
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集合了東非的農民和股東
13:29
in East Africa to get standards for organic produce. Better prices.
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一起為有機作物生產制定標準。更好的價格。
13:36
It ties in with small-scale farmers
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這個標準和小規模生產的農民
13:39
in terms of no pesticides, no fertilizers.
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沒有殺蟲劑，沒有化肥。
13:44
Again, opportunity to tackle markets to get that higher price.
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同樣也是調整市場以期獲得更高價格的機會。
13:49
Uganda: the New Forest Company,
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烏干達：新森林公司，
13:51
replanting and redeveloping their forests. Why is that important?
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重新種植和開拓了他們的森林。爲什麽要這麼做呢？
13:57
As the energy needs are met and electricity is needed [we will need]
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因為能源需求和電力需求【未來的需求】
14:00
poles for rolling out electricity.
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需要電網拓展的電杆。
14:02
But here is the sweetener in the deal.
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但這只是整個生意裏面的一丁點。
14:04
They're going to be tapping into carbon credits.
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他們開始挖掘碳排放信用額。
14:08
Let's go back to Nigeria.
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回到尼日利亞。
14:10
The banking sector has undergone tremendous transformation,
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銀行業正經歷巨大的變革，
14:13
from over 80 banks to 25 banks. Strengthening of the system.
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從80家銀行到25家。雖然鞏固了整個系統。
14:18
But what's going on there? Only 10 percent of the country is banked.
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但實際發生了什麽？全國只有10%的地區有銀行。
14:23
The largest population in Africa is in Nigeria.
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尼日利亞的人口是非洲最多的。
14:26
135 million-plus people. Think about that.
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1億萬3千五百萬的人口。想像下。
14:30
There are only 700 ATMs in the country. Opportunity.
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整個國家只有700個ATM取款機。機會！
14:35
The same for telecoms across the country.
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整個國家的通訊也是如此。
14:38
Now let's look at the continent as a whole.
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我們來整體看看整個非洲大陸。
14:40
People look at the roads, for example, and they'd say,
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人們一看到公路，比如，就會說，
14:42
"Angola: 90 percent of roads are untarred. Ah, problem!"
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『安哥拉：90%的公路沒有瀝青。哦，真糟！』
14:49
It's more expensive to transport goods. Prices of goods go up,
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運輸貨物變的昂貴。商品的價格也會上升，
14:52
inflation is affected.
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然後導致通脹。
14:54
Nigeria: 70 percent of roads are untarred. Zambia: 80 percent.
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尼日利亞：70%的公路沒有瀝青。贊比亞：80%。
14:57
In general, more than 50 percent of roads are untarred.
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總體來說，超過50%的公路沒有瀝青。
15:00
This is an opportunity! Energy needs -- it's an opportunity.
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這是個機會啊！能源需求 -- 這是一個機會。
15:05
So what are the signs that things are fundamentally changing?
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那麼正在根本性改變中的訊號是什麽呢？
15:08
Let's look at the stock markets in Africa.
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看看非洲的股票市場。
15:11
If I had to ask you, "In 2005 what was the best performing stock market
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如果我問你：『2005年，全球表現最優的股票交易市場
15:15
or stock exchange in the world?" Would Egypt come to mind?
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或者期貨市場在哪裡？』誰會想到埃及？
15:20
In 2005, the Egyptian stock exchange returned over 145 percent.
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在2005年，埃及股市 -- 股票交易所 -- 回報率超過145%。
15:28
What's going on in some of the other countries?
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其他國家的表現如何呢？
15:30
Let's look at some 2006 numbers. Kenya: over 60 percent. Nigeria: over 40 percent.
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2006年的數據顯示，肯尼亞：超過60%的回報，尼日利亞：超過40%。
15:37
South Africa: in the 20 percents. High ones.
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南非：20%。都是比較高的數字。
15:40
These are the trends that are taking place.
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這些是正在發生的趨勢。
15:46
But in any investment decision, the key question is,
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不過對於任何投資決策，有一個關鍵的問題是，
15:50
"What is my alternative investment?"
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『備選的投資機會還有什麽？』
15:53
Because in Africa today, we are competing globally for capital.
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現今在非洲，我們和全球的資本市場競爭。
15:57
And global capital is agnostic -- it has no loyalties.
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同時全球的資本是不可知的 -- 因為它沒有特許費。
16:02
There's an overhang of capital in the U.S., and the key is yield pickup.
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美國資本過剩，問題出在收益率上。
16:06
What Africa is providing is a diversification play,
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非洲能提供的是多元化的組合，
16:09
and also opportunities for yield pickup for the investor
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給投資者提高收益率
16:11
that's aware of what he or she is doing.
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投資者意識到他或者他正在做什麽。
16:15
Now, when looking at Africa vis-a-vis other things,
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現在，我們拿非洲和其他地方比較，
16:17
and countries in Africa vis-a-vis other things,
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也拿非洲國家與其他國對比，
16:19
comparisons become important.
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對比是很重要的。
16:21
10 years ago there, were very few countries
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10年前，只有少數國家
16:24
that received sovereign ratings from
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能夠獲得
16:25
the Standard & Poors, Moody's and Fitch's.
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標準普爾、穆迪還有惠譽的獨立評級。
16:28
Today, 16 African countries and growing
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今天，已有16個非洲國家
16:32
have sovereign country ratings. What does this mean?
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獲得國家評級，這又意味著什麽？
16:35
Take Nigeria again: double B-minus --
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再以尼日利亞為例：它和
16:38
in the league of Ukraine and Turkey. Immediately we have a comparison.
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烏克蘭和土耳其聯盟得到兩個 B- 很快我們就有個對比。
16:43
The backbone of making investment decisions
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為全球主流金融資本持有者
16:46
for global holders of capital.
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提供投資決策參考。
16:48
Some other figures. South Africa: triple B-plus. Botswana: A-plus.
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也有人指出，南非：3個B+，波扎那: A+
16:55
Bakino Faso: B-minus. And so on.
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佈基納法索：B-，等等。
16:58
In fact, one of the big agencies is setting up an office in Africa.
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實際上，全球最大的一個經紀公司正在非洲設立辦事處。
17:03
Why are they doing that? Because they expect investment to follow.
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他們爲什麽要這麼做？因為他們想跟進投資。
17:09
So one of the big bellwethers,
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其中一個帶頭大哥，
17:11
and one of my final points I want to mention, is
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也是我最後一個想提及的，是
17:14
the interesting thing I read is that CNBC
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我讀到認為最有意思的：CNBC（美國全國廣播公司財經頻道）
17:16
has launched their first African channel. Why is CNBC doing this?
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已經啟動第一個非洲頻道。CNBC爲什麽要這麼做？
17:21
It's the 24-hour rolling African news channel.
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他是一個24小時滾動播放非洲新聞的頻道。
17:25
They're doing it because they are expecting things to happen.
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之所以這麼做他們期待大事件發生。
17:28
Me and you, the investments we are going to be making,
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我還有你，我們這些做投資的人，
17:32
the investments the world is going to be making --
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還有全世界在做投資的人 --
17:33
that's the 24-hour news channel dedicated to Africa.
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從那裡可以得到24小時的非洲新聞。
17:37
So that's the change that's coming down the pipeline.
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這就是變化，從頭到尾的變化。
17:42
So in conclusion, I want to turn back to that very slide
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最後，我想簡單回顧下
17:47
that made such a deep impact on me all those years ago.
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這些年來對我影響深遠的事情。
17:52
This time [I'll] give you the entire picture that I saw in 2002,
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這一次我給你們看我在2002年所看到的完整圖片，
17:58
and ask you that when you think about what your role can be in Africa,
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問到當你思考自己在非洲的角色時，
18:03
think about your journey in terms of bringing light to this continent.
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思考你的旅途能否給這片大陸帶來光明。
18:07
Because there are amazing opportunities available.
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因為這裡有太多驚人的機會。
18:10
And think about the concept of transformation
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也思考變革的概念
18:12
in the back of your mind
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印在你的腦海裡，
18:14
because things can be turned around rather quickly.
320
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因為有些事情很難一下轉變過來。
18:18
In 1899, Joseph Conrad released "The Heart of Darkness,"
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1989年，約瑟夫 康拉德發行了《黑暗之心》一書，
18:25
a tale of grim horror along the Congo River.
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一個冷酷的英雄在剛果河的故事。
18:32
If one looks carefully, on the Congo River
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假如有人注意到的話，剛果河
18:37
is one of those bright lights. And that's the very Congo river
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也是帶來光亮的。這是真正的剛果河
18:41
generating light -- the old heart of darkness
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帶來光明 --那古老的黑暗之心--
18:44
now generating light with hydro-electric power.
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正在利用水力發電帶來光明。
18:47
That is a transformation in power of ideas.
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這也是一個轉換電力的看法。
18:50
So the next step, over the next four days,
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到下一階段，接下來的四天裡，
18:52
is us exploring more of these ideas.
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我們會探討更多這樣的想法。
18:55
And perchance, if you can always keep this picture in your mind,
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或許，如果你能保存這張圖片在大腦中。
18:58
that when we convene maybe in the distant future, in 2020,
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不久的將來，到2020年，我們再次相聚，
19:03
that picture will look very different.
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這個圖片將會看起來非常不同。
19:05
Thank you.
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謝謝。
19:07
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Euvin Naidoo - Investment bankerAs leading advocate for Western Investment into Africa, BCG's Euvin Naidoo works with leading corporations and governments to strengthen trans-Atlantic economic ties.
Why you should listen
Euvin Naidoo wants to change your mind about Africa. A partner in BCG's Johannesburg office, Naidoo is armed with facts, figures and a forward-looking outlook to convey a nuanced picture of a continent that's large, diverse and full of potential, with stabilizing economies and business growth. Speaking at TED in a personal capicity, he offers persuasive reasons why the continent's challenges should be reframed as opportunities, and why investing in Africa can make great business sense. A third-generation South African, Naidoo was selected by Forbes in 2011 onto their Top 10 Most Powerful and Influential Men under Forty in Africa list, and in 2009 was seleted as a Young Global Leader by the World Economic Forum. Naidoo holds an MBA from Harvard, where he served on the Board of Admissions. He previously served as President and CEO of the South African Chamber of Commerce in America (SACCA), a position which allowed him to promote entrepreneurship and business investment throughout Africa.
Euvin Naidoo | Speaker | TED.com