TED2002
Kary Mullis: Play! Experiment! Discover!
凱利•穆利斯談論科學家是做什麼的?
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生化學家 — 凱利•穆利斯談論現代科學的基礎：實驗。利用一些 17 世紀的故事，還有從他自己年輕時在後院發射火箭的經歷，穆利斯與觀眾慶祝好奇心，啟發和嚴謹科學的各種形式與面向。
Kary Mullis - Biochemist
Kary Mullis won the Nobel Prize in Chemistry for developing a way to copy a strand of DNA. (His technique, called PCR, jump-started the 1990s' biorevolution.) He's known for his wide-ranging interests -- and strong opinions. Full bio
Kary Mullis won the Nobel Prize in Chemistry for developing a way to copy a strand of DNA. (His technique, called PCR, jump-started the 1990s' biorevolution.) He's known for his wide-ranging interests -- and strong opinions. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:18
I'll just start talking about the 17th century.
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我就從 17 世紀開始談起，
00:20
I hope nobody finds that offensive.
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我希望沒有人覺得被冒犯到。
00:22
I -- you know, when I -- after I had invented PCR,
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我 — 你知道，當我 — 當我發明聚合酶鏈索反應後，
00:25
I kind of needed a change.
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我需要一些改變。
00:27
And I moved down to La Jolla and learned how to surf.
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我搬到拉荷亞去學如何衝浪，
00:30
And I started living down there on the beach for a long time.
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有很長的一段時間，我就住在那邊的海灘上。
00:33
And when surfers are out waiting
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當衝浪者在等待
00:35
for waves,
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浪頭時，
00:37
you probably wonder, if you've never been out there, what are they doing?
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如果你從來沒有衝浪過，你可能會好奇，他們在做什麼？
00:39
You know, sometimes there's a 10-, 15-minute break out there
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你知道，有時在你等待下一個浪頭打進來時，
00:41
when you're waiting for a wave to come in.
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這中間的間隔長達十至十五分鐘。
00:43
They usually talk about the 17th century.
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他們通常會談論起 17 世紀，
00:46
You know, they get a real bad rap in the world.
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你知道，在這世界上他們臭名遠播，
00:49
People think they're sort of lowbrows.
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人們認為他們知識淺薄。
00:53
One day, somebody suggested I read this book.
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有一天，有人建議我讀這本書,
00:55
It was called --
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這本書的名字是 —
00:57
it was called "The Air Pump,"
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這本書的名字是「The Air Pump」（空氣泵）
00:59
or something like "The Leviathan and The Air Pump."
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或者類似「The Leviathan and The Air Pump」（大鯨魚與空氣泵）
01:01
It was a real weird book about the 17th century.
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這是一本關於 17 世紀，非常怪異的書 ，
01:04
And I realized, the roots
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然後我意識到，
01:06
of the way I sort of thought
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我思維方式的根基，
01:08
was just the only natural way to think about things.
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我原以為是唯一自然的、思考問題的方法。
01:11
That -- you know, I was born thinking about things that way,
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你知道，自從我出生，我就是這樣思考問題，
01:14
and I had always been like a little scientist guy.
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我一向像一個小科學家。
01:16
And when I went to find out something,
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當我想去了解東西，
01:18
I used scientific methods. I wasn't real surprised,
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我利用科學方法，這對我來說並不驚奇，
01:20
you know, when they first told me how --
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你知道，當他們第一次跟我說 —
01:22
how you were supposed to do science,
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你應該怎樣研究科學，
01:24
because I'd already been doing it for fun and whatever.
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因為一直以來我都在使用科學方法，不管我是在玩樂還是在做其他的事。
01:28
But it didn't -- it never occurred to me
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但是，我從來沒有想到，
01:31
that it had to be invented
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科學方法需要被發明，
01:33
and that it had been invented
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並且科學方法在 350 多年前
01:35
only 350 years ago.
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才剛剛被發明。
01:37
You know, it was --
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你知道，它是 —
01:39
like it happened in England, and Germany, and Italy
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在英國，德國和意大利等地
01:42
sort of all at the same time.
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約略同時發生的。
01:44
And the story of that,
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而這個故事，
01:46
I thought, was really fascinating.
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在我認為，真是令人著迷。
01:48
So I'm going to talk a little bit about that,
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因此，我會談談這個故事。
01:50
and what exactly is it that scientists are supposed to do.
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到底科學家應該做什麼？
01:53
And it's, it's a kind of --
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並且它，它是一種 —
01:55
You know, Charles I got beheaded
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你知道, 查爾斯一世在
01:59
somewhere early in the 17th century.
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17 世紀初被斬首。
02:01
And the English set up Cromwell
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而英國成立克倫威爾 (Cornwell)
02:03
and a whole bunch of Republicans or whatever,
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和一大堆的共和黨員等等，
02:05
and not the kind of Republicans we had.
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但和我們的共和黨成員大不相同。
02:08
They changed the government, and it didn't work.
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他們改變了政府，但是他們的作法行不通。
02:12
And
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後來，
02:15
Charles II, the son,
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查爾斯二世，一世的兒子，
02:19
was finally put back on the throne of England.
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終於被重新擁護回英國的王位上。
02:21
He was really nervous, because his dad had been,
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他真的很緊張，因為他的父親曾經被，
02:24
you know, beheaded for being the King of England
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你知道，因為作為英國國王而被斬首.
02:26
And he was nervous about the fact
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他尤其擔心
02:29
that conversations that got going
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人們在酒吧或類似的地方，
02:31
in, like, bars and stuff
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持續談論的話題
02:33
would turn to --
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會導致 —
02:35
this is kind of -- it's hard to believe,
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這類的事情 — 雖然很難相信，
02:37
but people in the 17th century in England
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但 17 世紀英國的人們
02:39
were starting to talk about, you know,
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已經開始在酒吧裡談論，你知道，
02:41
philosophy and stuff in bars.
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哲學一類的話題。
02:43
They didn't have TV screens,
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他們沒有電視，
02:45
and they didn't have any football games to watch.
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而且他們沒有任何美式足球比賽可以看。
02:47
And they would get really pissy,
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然而他們還是會談論到火氣十足，
02:49
and all of a sudden people would spill out into the street and fight
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然後人們會突然跑到街上開始打架，
02:52
about issues like whether or not
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這些議題包括：諸如是否
02:54
it was okay if Robert Boyle
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這是可行的 — 關於羅伯特•波義耳
02:57
made a device called the vacuum pump.
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做出一台稱為真空泵的儀器這個事件。
02:59
Now, Boyle was a friend of Charles II.
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波義耳是查爾斯二世的朋友，
03:02
He was a Christian guy during the weekends,
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他是一個週末才信主的基督徒，
03:05
but during the week he was a scientist.
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在平日他是一個科學家。
03:08
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
03:09
Which was -- back then it was
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這是 — 在當時
03:11
sort of, you know, well, you know --
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這有點，你知道，這個，你知道 —
03:14
if you made this thing -- he made this little device,
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如果你製造了這個東西 — 他做了這個小小的儀器，
03:16
like kind of like a bicycle pump
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有點像將自行車泵
03:19
in reverse that could suck all the air out of --
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反向使用，可將空氣完全吸出 —
03:22
you know what a bell jar is? One of these things,
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你知道什麼是鐘型罩嗎？類似這種東西，
03:24
you pick it up, put it down, and it's got a seal,
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把它打開，放回去，然後封起來，
03:26
and you can see inside of it,
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你可以看到它的內部，
03:28
so you can see what's going on inside this thing.
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因此你可以看到這東西裡面所發生的事情。
03:30
But what he was trying to do was to pump all the air out of there,
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但他試圖做的是用空氣泵將所有內部的空氣排出，
03:33
and see what would happen inside there.
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然後看看裡面會發生什麼事。
03:35
I mean, the first -- I think one of the first experiments he did
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我的意思是，首先 — 他所做的第一個實驗是
03:39
was he put a bird in there.
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他放了一隻鳥在裡面。
03:41
And people in the 17th century,
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而在 17 世紀的人們，
03:44
they didn't really understand the same way we do
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他們對事物的看法和我們並不太相同，
03:47
about you know, this stuff is
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關於，你知道，空氣是
03:49
a bunch of different kinds of molecules,
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一堆不同種類的分子，
03:52
and we breathe it in for a purpose and all that.
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我們呼吸空氣是有意義的等等。
03:55
I mean, fish don't know much about water,
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我的意思是，魚對水並不了解，
03:57
and people didn't know much about air.
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同樣的道理，人們對空氣也並不了解。
04:00
But both started exploring it.
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但是都開始對其展開探索。
04:02
One thing, he put a bird in there, and he pumped all the air out,
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第一件事，他放了一隻鳥在裡面，然後他把所有的空氣抽出，
04:04
and the bird died. So he said, hmm ...
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然後鳥死了。於是他說，嗯 ...
04:06
He said -- he called what he'd done as making --
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他說 — 他稱呼他所做的事為 —
04:09
they didn't call it a vacuum pump at the time.
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他們當時並沒有說這是一個真空泵。
04:11
Now you call it a vacuum pump; he called it a vacuum.
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現在你稱它為真空泵，他稱之為真空。
04:14
Right? And immediately,
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是嗎？馬上，
04:17
he got into trouble with the local clergy
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他遇到了當地神職人員所給的麻煩，
04:19
who said, you can't make a vacuum.
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他們說，你不能製造真空。
04:22
Ah, uh --
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啊，啊 —
04:24
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
04:27
Aristotle said that nature abhors one.
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亞里士多德說，大自然痛恨真空。
04:29
I think it was a poor translation, probably,
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我認為這是一個錯誤的翻譯，可能是，
04:31
but people relied on authorities like that.
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但人們依賴那樣的權威。
04:34
And you know, Boyle says, well, shit.
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你知道，波義耳說，這個嘛，胡扯。
04:37
I make them all the time.
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我經常這樣做。
04:39
I mean, whatever that is that kills the bird --
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我的意思是，無論是什麼殺死這鳥 —
04:42
and I'm calling it a vacuum.
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我稱它為真空。
04:44
And the religious people said that
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但宗教人士說，
04:47
if God wanted you to make --
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如果上帝要你製造 —
04:50
I mean, God is everywhere,
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我的意思是，上帝無所不在，
04:52
that was one of their rules, is God is everywhere.
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這是他們的一個規則，就是上帝無所不在。
04:54
And a vacuum -- there's nothing in a vacuum,
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而真空 — 真空中沒有任何東西存在，
04:56
so you've -- God couldn't be in there.
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因此你得出 — 上帝不可能在那邊。
04:59
So therefore the church said that you can't make a vacuum, you know.
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因此教會說，你不能製造一個真空，你知道。
05:02
And Boyle said, bullshit.
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而波義耳說，胡扯。
05:04
I mean, you want to call it Godless,
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我的意思是，你想將它命名為「無神」，
05:06
you know, you call it Godless.
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你知道，是你稱之為「無神」的。
05:08
But that's not my job. I'm not into that.
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但是，這不是我的工作。我不感興趣。
05:10
I do that on the weekend. And like --
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我只在週末上教堂。而像 —
05:13
what I'm trying to do is figure out what happens
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我嘗試要做的是，去弄清楚當你將所有東西吸出容器後
05:16
when you suck everything out of a compartment.
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發生了什麼事。
05:19
And he did all these cute little experiments.
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然後他做了所有這些可愛的實驗。
05:21
Like he did one with -- he had a little wheel,
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像他做了這樣一個實驗 — 他有一個小輪子，
05:24
like a fan, that was
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像一個風扇，
05:27
sort of loosely attached, so it could spin by itself.
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他被鬆散地連接著，因此它可以自己旋轉。
05:30
He had another fan opposed to it
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他還有另一個反向的風扇
05:32
that he had like a --
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他就像一個 —
05:34
I mean, the way I would have done this would be, like, a rubber band,
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我的意思，就像我會做的一樣，一條橡皮筋，
05:36
and, you know, around a tinker toy kind of fan.
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和，你也知道，在一個錫製玩具般風扇的四周。
05:38
I know exactly how he did it; I've seen the drawings.
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我完全知道他是怎麼做的，我看過他的圖示說明。
05:42
It's two fans, one which he could turn from outside
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兩個風扇，其中一個在真空建立之後
05:44
after he got the vacuum established,
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他可以從外部控制其轉動。
05:46
and he discovered that if he pulled all the air out of it,
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他發現，如果他把所有的空氣抽出來，
05:49
the one fan would no longer turn the other one, right?
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轉動的那個風扇將不再能夠驅動另一個風扇，對吧？
05:52
Something was missing, you know. I mean, these are --
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有什麼東西不見了，你知道。我的意思是，這是 —
05:55
it's kind of weird to think that someone had to do an experiment to show that,
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想到連這個都還需要人去做實驗證明真的有點奇怪，
05:57
but that was what was going on at the time.
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但那就是當時事情的常態。
06:02
And like, there was big arguments about it
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而像，對於此事
06:04
in the -- you know, the gin houses and in the coffee shops and stuff.
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在 — 你知道，杜松子酒吧和咖啡店內常常引起激烈的辯論。
06:08
And Charles
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而查爾斯
06:10
started not liking that.
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開始不喜歡這種現象。
06:12
Charles II was kind of saying, you know, you should keep that --
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查爾斯二世說，你知道，你應該記住這句話 —
06:15
let's make a place where you can do this stuff
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讓我們建立一個地方，在哪邊你可以盡情的實驗與辯論，
06:18
where people don't get so -- you know,
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如果其它地方不能滿足他們的需求的話 — 你知道，
06:20
we don't want the -- we don't want to get the people mad at me again. And so --
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我們不希望 — 我們不想讓這些人再討厭我。於是 —
06:23
because when they started talking about religion
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因為當他們開始談論宗教
06:26
and science and stuff like that,
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和科學這類的東西的時候，
06:28
that's when it had sort of gotten his father in trouble.
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也就是將他父親捲入麻煩的時候。
06:30
And so,
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因此，
06:32
Charles said, I'm going to put up the money
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查爾斯說，我出資金
06:34
give you guys a building,
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為你們準備一棟房子，
06:36
come here and you can meet in the building,
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你們可以在這棟房子內舉行集會，
06:38
but just don't talk about religion in there.
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但就是不可以在那裡談論宗教。
06:40
And that was fine with Boyle.
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波義耳認為這是不錯的，
06:42
He said, OK, we're going to start having these meetings.
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他說，好吧，我們將開始舉行這些會議。
06:44
And anybody who wants to do science is --
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任何願意從事科學這行的人都 —
06:47
this is about the time that Isaac Newton was starting to whip out
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這也剛好是牛頓開始掃蕩
06:49
a lot of really interesting things.
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許多非常有趣的事情的時候。
06:51
And there was all kind of people that would come to the Royal Society,
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並有許多不同的人來到英國皇家學會，
06:54
they called it. You had to be dressed up pretty well.
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他們這樣稱它。你必須打扮得很正式。
06:57
It wasn't like a TED conference.
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它不像 TED 大會。
06:59
That was the only criteria, was that you be --
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它有一個，也只有一個標準，就是你 —
07:01
you looked like a gentleman, and they'd let anybody could come.
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你看上去像一個紳士，他們會讓任何人來。
07:04
You didn't have to be a member then.
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你並不需要成為會員。
07:06
And so, they would come in and you would do --
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因此，他們進來，你會做 —
07:08
Anybody that was going to show an experiment,
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某個人將會發表一個實驗，
07:11
which was kind of a new word at the time,
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「實驗」在當時是個新字眼，
07:13
demonstrate some principle,
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示範一些原理，
07:15
they had to do it on stage, where everybody could see it.
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他們需要在舞台上示範，因為在舞台上人人都可以看到。
07:18
So they were --
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因此，他們 —
07:20
the really important part of this was,
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真正重要的部分是，
07:22
you were not supposed to talk
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你不應該談論
07:24
about final causes, for instance.
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例如說：最終的結果。
07:27
And God was out of the picture.
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並且上帝不在討論的範圍內。
07:29
The actual nature of reality was not at issue.
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現實的本質是不容爭論的。
07:33
You're not supposed to talk about the absolute nature of anything.
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你不應該談論任何事物的絕對性。
07:36
You were not supposed to talk about anything
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你不應該談論
07:38
that you couldn't demonstrate.
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你無法演示的東西。
07:40
So if somebody could see it, you could say, here's how the machine works,
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因此，如果有人能看到它，你可以說，這是這機器運作的原理，
07:43
here's what we do, and then here's what happens.
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這是我們操作的步驟，然後這裡是所發生的結果，
07:47
And seeing what happens, it was OK
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並且觀察到這些現象，這是被允許的。
07:49
to generalize,
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籠統的說，
07:51
and say, I'm sure that this will happen anytime
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我敢肯定，這隨時會發生，
07:54
we make one of these things.
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我們這麼做，
07:56
And so you can start making up some rules.
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然後你開始想出一些規則。
07:58
You say, anytime you have a vacuum state,
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你說，任何時候如果有一個真空狀態，
08:01
you will discover that one wheel will not turn another one,
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你會發現一個風扇的葉片不能夠使另一個轉動，
08:04
if the only connection between them
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如果，如果他們之間唯一的關聯
08:06
is whatever was there before the vacuum. That kind of thing.
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就是存在這真空狀態前的不論什麼東西，這一類的事情。
08:09
Candles can't burn in a vacuum,
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蠟燭不能在真空中燃燒，
08:11
therefore, probably sparklers wouldn't either.
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因此，煙花大概也不能。
08:14
It's not clear; actually sparklers will,
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目前尚不清楚，事實上煙花可以,
08:16
but they didn't know that.
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但他們不知道，
08:18
They didn't have sparklers. But, they --
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他們沒有煙花。不過，他們 —
08:20
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
08:25
-- you can make up rules, but they have to relate
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— 你可以訂定規則，但它們必須
08:28
only to the things that you've been able to demonstrate.
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只依據你所能示範證明的事物。
08:30
And most the demonstrations had to do with visuals.
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而且大部分的示範必須能夠被觀察到。
08:33
Like if you do an experiment on stage,
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例如，如果你在舞台上做一個實驗，
08:35
and nobody can see it, they can just hear it, they would probably think you were freaky.
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沒有人能看到它，他們只能聽到它，他們可能會認為你是個怪胎。
08:38
I mean, reality is what you can see.
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我的意思是，「現實」就是你可以看到的東西。
08:41
That wasn't an explicit rule in the meeting,
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這不是這會議明定的規則，
08:45
but I'm sure that was part of it, you know. If people hear voices,
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但我敢肯定，這是它的一部分，你知道。如果人們聽到聲音，
08:47
and they can't see and associate it with somebody,
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然而他們看不見或是無法與某人產生關聯，
08:50
that person's probably not there.
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這個人可能不在那邊。
08:52
But the general idea that you could only --
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但一般來說，你只能 —
08:56
you could only really talk about things in that place
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你在那個地方所能夠真正談論的東西，
08:58
that had some kind of experimental basis.
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必須有實驗依據。
09:01
It didn't matter what Thomas Hobbes,
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托馬斯霍布斯如何評論並不重要，
09:03
who was a local philosopher,
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他是當地的哲學家，
09:05
said about it, you know,
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你知道，
09:07
because you weren't going to be talking final causes.
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因為你不會討論最終的結論。
09:09
What's happening here,
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在這邊發生的，
09:11
in the middle of the 17th century,
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在 17 世紀中葉，
09:13
was that what became my field --
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是後來變成了我的領域 —
09:15
science, experimental science --
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科學，實驗科學 —
09:17
was pulling itself away,
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在將自身抽離，
09:19
and it was in a physical way, because we're going to do it in this room over here,
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是一種實體性上的抽離，因為要在這個特定的房間內進行，
09:22
but it was also what -- it was an amazing thing that happened.
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但這也是 — 所發生的一件美妙的事。
09:24
Science had been all interlocked
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一直以來科學與
09:26
with theology, and philosophy,
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神學，哲學，
09:28
and -- and -- and mathematics,
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及 — 與 — 和數學一直糾纏不清。
09:31
which is really not science.
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這實在不是科學。
09:34
But experimental science had been tied up with all those things.
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但是，科學實驗一直都與所有這些事情捆綁在一起。
09:37
And the mathematics part
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而數學
09:40
and the experimental science part
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和實驗科學的部分
09:42
was pulling away from philosophy.
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從哲學中脫離。
09:44
And -- things --
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種種這樣的事～
09:46
we never looked back.
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我們從不眷戀。
09:48
It's been so cool since then.
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從那時開始，一切都是美好的。
09:51
I mean, it just -- it just -- untangled a thing that was really impeding
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我的意思，它只是 — 只是 — 解開一件事實上阻礙
09:56
technology from being developed.
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科技發展的事物。
09:58
And, I mean, everybody in this room --
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而且，我的意思是，在這房間的每個人 —
10:00
now, this is 350 short years ago.
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現在，這只是短短 350 年以前，
10:02
Remember, that's a short time.
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請記得，這是一段很短的時間。
10:04
It was 300,000, probably, years ago
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大約 30 萬年前
10:07
that most of us, the ancestors of most of us in this room
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對我們多數人而言，在這個房間大部分人的祖先
10:10
came up out of Africa and turned to the left.
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離開非洲，轉向世界的西方前進。
10:13
You know, the ones that turned to the right, there are some of those
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你知道，那些轉向東方的，這邊有一些
10:15
in the Japanese translation.
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日本翻譯。
10:17
But that happened very -- a long time ago
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但是，那是非常 — 很久以前所發生的事。
10:20
compared to
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如果你與
10:22
350 short years ago.
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短短 350 年以前相比。
10:24
But in that 350 years,
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但在這 350 年，
10:26
the place has just undergone a lot of changes.
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這個地方剛剛經歷了很多變化。
10:29
In fact, everybody in this room probably,
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事實上，在這個房間內的每個人都可能，
10:31
especially if you picked up your bag --
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特別是如果你有去領取你的紀念包 —
10:34
some of you, I know, didn't pick up your bags --
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有些人，我知道，沒有去領取你的紀念包 —
10:36
but if you picked up your bag, everybody in this room
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但如果你有去領取你的紀念包，這房間內的每個人
10:38
has got in their pocket, or back in their room,
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在他們的口袋內，或者在房間內，
10:40
something
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都擁有
10:42
that 350 years ago,
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在 350 年以前，
10:44
kings would have gone to war to have.
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國王們會為了擁有它而發動戰爭的東西。
10:47
I mean, if you can think how important --
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我的意思是，如果你能想像如何重要 —
10:49
If you have a GPS system and there are no satellites,
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如果你有一個 GPS （全球衛星定位）系統，但沒有衛星，
10:51
it's not going to be much use. But, like --
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它不會是多大用處。但是，像 —
10:53
but, you know, if somebody had a GPS system
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但是，你知道，如果在 17 世紀
10:55
in the 17th century
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有人擁有 GPS 系統，
10:58
some king would have gotten together an army
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某些國王將會召集軍隊
11:00
and gone to get it, you know. If that person --
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去得到它，你知道。如果該人 —
11:02
Audience: For the teddy bear? The teddy bear?
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受眾：為了泰迪熊？我們的泰迪熊禮物？
11:04
Kary Mullis: They might have done it for the teddy bear, yeah.
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凱穆利斯：他們可能為了泰迪熊這麼做，是啊。
11:07
But -- all of us own stuff.
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但是 — 我們都擁有某些東西。
11:09
I mean, individuals own things
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我的意思是，我們個人所擁有的東西，
11:11
that kings would have definitely gone to war to get.
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這些東西是會讓 17 世紀的國王們不惜發動戰爭去取得的。
11:13
And this is just 350 years.
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而這僅僅是 350 年前。
11:15
Not a whole lot of people doing this stuff.
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現在已經不會有很多人這麼做了。
11:17
You know, the important people --
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你知道，重要的人 —
11:19
you can almost read about their lives,
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你幾乎可以在書本上讀到他們所有的日常生活，
11:21
about all the really important people that made advances, you know.
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關於所有這些真正重要，取得進展的人，你知道。
11:24
And, I mean --
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而且，我的意思是 -—
11:26
this kind of stuff, you know, all this stuff
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這樣的東西，你知道，所有這些東西
11:29
came from that separation
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來自所有我們所做的
11:31
of this little sort of thing that we do --
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每一件看起來分離、不相關的小小事物 —
11:34
now I, when I was a boy
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當我還是個孩子的時候，
11:36
was born sort of with this idea
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天生就有這個概念，
11:38
that if you want to know something --
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如果你想了解某件事物 —
11:40
you know, maybe it's because my old man was gone a lot,
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你知道，也許是因為我的父親常常不在家，
11:42
and my mother didn't really know much science,
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而且我的母親對科學懂得不多，
11:44
but I thought if you want to know something about stuff,
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但我想如果你想要了解事物，
11:47
you do it -- you make an experiment, you know.
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你要這樣做 — 做一個實驗，你知道。
11:49
You get -- you get, like --
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你得到 — 你得到，好像 —
11:51
I just had a natural feeling for science
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我對科學和設立實驗有一種天生自然的感覺，
11:54
and setting up experiments. I thought that was the way everybody had always thought.
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我一直以為這是每個人一直以來的思考模式。
11:56
I thought that anybody with any brains will do it that way.
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我認為任何有大腦的人都會這樣做。
11:59
It isn't true. I mean, there's a lot of people --
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這不是真的。我的意思是，還有很多的人 —
12:02
You know, I was one of those scientists that was --
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你知道，我是那種會在晚餐會上出糗
12:05
got into trouble the other night at dinner
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的科學家中的其中一份子，
12:07
because of the post-modernism thing.
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因為這些後現代主義的東西。
12:09
And I didn't mean, you know -- where is that lady?
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我並不是說，你知道 — 那女士裡哪？
12:11
Audience: Here.
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觀眾：在這裡。
12:12
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
12:13
KM: I mean, I didn't really think of that as an argument
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凱利穆利斯：我的意思是，我真的不認為那是一個爭論，
12:15
so much as just a lively discussion.
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我認為那只是一個熱烈的討論。
12:18
I didn't take it personally, but --
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我並沒有參雜個人情緒，但 —
12:21
I just -- I had -- I naively had thought,
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我只是 — 我 — 我天真地以為，
12:24
until this surfing experience started me into the 17th century,
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直到我開始衝浪並體驗到了 17 世紀，
12:27
I'd thought that's just the way people thought,
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我還會一直認為人們都是這麼思考的，
12:29
and everybody did, and they recognized reality
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每個人都一樣，他們藉由
12:32
by what they could see or touch or feel or hear.
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所能看到、觸摸、感覺或聽到的東西來認識現實世界。
12:35
At any rate, when I was a boy,
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無論如何，當我還是個孩子 —
12:40
I, like, for instance, I had this --
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我像 — 例如，我有這個 —
12:42
I got this little book from Fort Sill, Oklahoma --
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我從俄克拉荷馬州的錫爾堡得到這本小書 —
12:44
This is about the time that George Dyson's dad
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大約是喬治•戴森的父親
12:46
was starting to blow nuclear --
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開始進行核子試爆的時間 —
12:48
thinking about blowing up nuclear rockets and stuff.
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想著如何引爆核子火箭等武器。
12:51
I was thinking about making my own little rockets.
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我還在想製作自己的小火箭。
12:54
And I knew that frogs -- little frogs --
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而且我知道那個青蛙 — 小青蛙 —
12:57
had aspirations of space travel,
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有太空旅行的渴望，
12:59
just like people. And I --
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和人一樣的。而我 —
13:01
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
13:04
I was looking for a --
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我一直在尋找一個 —
13:06
a propulsion system
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推進系統
13:08
that would like, make a rocket, like,
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是像，能使火箭，例如，
13:10
maybe about four feet high go up a couple of miles.
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四英呎長的火箭能升空數英哩高。
13:12
And, I mean, that was my sort of goal.
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我的意思是，至少那是我的目標。
13:15
I wanted it to go out of sight and then I wanted this little parachute
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我希望它消失在視線的遠方，然後我想使用這個小降落傘
13:18
to come back with the frog in it.
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帶回青蛙。
13:21
And -- I -- I --
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和 — 我 — 我 —
13:23
I got this book from Fort Sill, Oklahoma,
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我從俄克拉荷馬州的錫爾堡得到這本書，
13:25
where there's a missile base.
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該地有一個導彈基地。
13:27
They send it out for amateur rocketeers,
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他們將這本抒發給業餘的火箭製造愛好者，
13:30
and
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而且
13:32
it said in there
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書裡面說
13:34
do not ever heat a mixture of potassium perchlorate and sugar.
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千萬不要加熱過氯酸鉀和糖的混合物。
13:37
(Laughter)
327
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（笑聲）
13:40
You know,
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你知道，
13:42
that's what you call a lead.
329
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這就是你所謂線索。
13:44
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
13:46
You sort of -- now you say, well, let's see if I can
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你有一點 — 現在你說，好吧，讓我們看看我是否能
13:48
get hold of some potassium chlorate and sugar, perchlorate and sugar,
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持有一些氯酸鉀和糖，過氯酸鹽和糖，
13:51
and heat it; it would be interesting to see what it is they don't want me to do,
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然後加熱，能夠看看他們不希望我做的事情是什麼將會很有意思，
13:54
and what it is going to --
and how is it going to work.
and how is it going to work.
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和看看它將會產生什麼後果。
13:56
And we didn't have --
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而且，我們也沒有 —
13:58
like, my mother
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例如說：我的母親
14:00
presided over the back yard
337
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從二樓的窗口
14:03
from an upstairs window,
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掌控著整個後院，
14:05
where she would be ironing or something like that.
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在那邊，她還可以一邊燙衣服或做類似的家務。
14:07
And she was usually just sort of keeping an eye on,
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而且通常她只是時不時抽空關心一下，
14:09
and if there was any puffs of smoke out there,
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如果外面噴出一陣煙，
14:11
she'd lean out and admonish us all
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她就會將身體傾出窗外告誡大家
14:13
not to blow our eyes out. That was her --
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不要把我們的眼珠也炸出來了。這就是她 —
14:18
You know, that was kind of the worst thing that could happen to us.
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你知道，這大概是能夠發生在我們身上最糟糕的事。
14:20
That's why I thought, as long as I don't blow my eyes out ...
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這就是為什麼我會這麼想，只要我不把我的眼睛給炸掉...
14:22
I may not care about the fact
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我可能不會關心
14:25
that it's prohibited from heating this solution.
347
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加熱這個溶液是被禁止的事實。
14:27
I'm going to do it carefully, but I'll do it.
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我只是要小心，但我將會去做。
14:29
It's like anything else that's prohibited:
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這就像其他任何被禁止的事物：
14:31
you do it behind the garage.
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你就在車庫裡面做，
14:33
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
14:35
So, I went to the drug store
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所以，我跑去藥局，
14:37
and I tried to buy some potassium perchlorate
353
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並試著買一些過氯酸鉀，
14:40
and it wasn't unreasonable then for a kid
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在當時一個孩子走進藥房
14:42
to walk into a drug store and buy chemicals.
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購買化學藥品並不會另人感到奇怪。
14:45
Nowadays, it's no ma'am,
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如今，這是絕對不可能發生的，
14:47
check your shoes. And like --
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檢查你的鞋子。類似這種事 —
14:49
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
14:51
But then it wasn't -- they didn't have any, but the guy had --
359
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但當時並不是這樣 — 他們並沒有那個藥物，但這個傢伙有 —
14:53
I said, what kind of salts of potassium do you have? You know.
360
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我問道，你有什麼樣的鹽或鉀？像這樣。
14:56
And he had potassium nitrate.
361
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他有硝酸鉀。
14:58
And I said, that might do the same thing, whatever it is.
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我說，這可能是一樣的功用，不管它是什麼。
15:01
I'm sure it's got to do with rockets or it wouldn't be in that manual.
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我敢肯定與火箭有關,否則它不會在該手冊。
15:04
And so I -- I did some experiments.
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所以我 — 我做了一些實驗。
15:06
You know, I started off with little tiny amounts
365
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你知道，我一開始使用微量的
15:08
of potassium nitrate and sugar,
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硝酸鉀和糖，
15:10
which was readily available,
367
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糖很容易可以獲得，
15:12
and I mixed it in different proportions,
368
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我把它們不同的比例混合，
15:14
and I tried to light it on fire.
369
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然後我嘗試點火。
15:17
Just to see what would happen, if you mixed it together.
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只是為了看看，如果你將它們混合在一起會發生什麼事。
15:19
And it -- they burned.
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然後 — 它們燃燒了起來。
15:21
It burned kind of slow, but it made a nice smell,
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它燒得不算快，但它散發出了很強烈的氣味，
15:23
compared to other rocket fuels I had tried,
373
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與其它我曾嘗試過的火箭燃料相比，
15:25
that all had sulfur in them.
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所有這些燃料都含有硫。
15:27
And, it smelt like burnt candy.
375
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它聞起來像是燒焦的糖果。
15:30
And then I tried the melting business, and I melted it.
376
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然後我嘗試將其融化，我成功了。
15:33
And then it melted into a little sort of syrupy liquid, brown.
377
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它變成有點像是糖漿般的液體，是棕色的。
15:37
And then it cooled down to a brick-hard substance,
378
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等到它冷卻之後，硬化成像磚塊一般硬的物質，
15:40
that when you lit that,
379
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當你點燃時它時，
15:42
it went off like a bat.
380
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它像個球棒似的彈開來。
15:44
I mean, the little bowl of that stuff that had cooled down --
381
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我的意思是，一小碗那樣的東西，已經冷卻下來了 —
15:46
you'd light it, and it would just start dancing around the yard.
382
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你點燃它後，它會開始在院子內四處彈跳。
15:48
And I said, there
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然後我說，總有辦法
15:50
is a way to get a frog up to where he wants to go.
384
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讓青蛙到達牠想去的地方。
15:53
(Laughter)
385
935000
1000
（笑聲）
15:54
So I started developing --
386
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所以，我開始研發 —
15:57
you know, George's dad had a lot of help. I just had my brother.
387
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你知道，喬治的父親有很多幫手，我只有我兄弟。
16:00
But I -- it took me about -- it took me about,
388
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但是，我 — 我花了約 — 我花了約
16:03
I'd say, six months
389
945000
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6 個月，我會說。
16:05
to finally figure out all the little things.
390
947000
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終於解決所有的這些小事情。
16:07
There's a lot of little things involved
391
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要製造出一個真正能夠運作的火箭，
16:09
in making a rocket that it will actually work,
392
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與非常多不起眼的小事情密切相關，
16:11
even after you have the fuel.
393
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即使在你已經有了燃料以後。
16:13
But you do it, by -- what I just--
394
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但經由實做，由 — 我只是 —
16:15
you know, you do experiments,
395
957000
2000
你知道，你做實驗，
16:17
and you write down things sometimes,
396
959000
1000
和你有時寫下來的東西，
16:18
you make observations, you know.
397
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你觀察，然後你了解。
16:20
And then you slowly build up a theory
398
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然後你慢慢地建立出一個理論，
16:22
of how this stuff works.
399
964000
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關於這東西是如何運作的。
16:24
And it was -- I was following all the rules.
400
966000
2000
它是 — 我遵循所有的規則。
16:26
I didn't know what the rules were,
401
968000
2000
我那時並不知道這些規則，
16:28
I'm a natural born scientist, I guess,
402
970000
2000
我天生是一個科學家，我猜，
16:30
or some kind of a throwback to the 17th century, whatever.
403
972000
3000
或是倒退到了 17 世紀，無論是什麼。
16:33
But at any rate, we finally did
404
975000
4000
但無論如何，我們終於做到了
16:37
have a device that would reproduceably
405
979000
2000
這一個裝置，能一再的
16:39
put a frog out of sight
406
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2000
將一隻青蛙運送到視線之外，
16:41
and get him back alive.
407
983000
2000
然後讓牠活著回來。
16:43
And we had not --
408
985000
2000
同時，我們還沒有 —
16:45
I mean, we weren't frightened by it.
409
987000
3000
我的意思是，我們並不害怕。
16:48
We should have been, because it made a lot of smoke
410
990000
2000
我們應該要害怕的，因為它產生很多煙霧，
16:50
and it made a lot of noise,
411
992000
2000
並發出了很多噪音，
16:52
and it was powerful, you know.
412
994000
2000
而且威力強大，你知道。
16:54
And once in a while, they would blow up.
413
996000
2000
尤有甚者，它們時不時便會爆炸。
16:56
But I wasn't worried, by the way,
414
998000
2000
但我並不擔心，順便說一句，
16:58
about, you know,
415
1000000
2000
對，你知道，
17:00
the explosion causing the destruction of the planet.
416
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2000
這爆炸會導致星球的毀滅。
17:02
I hadn't heard about the 10 ways
417
1004000
2000
我還沒有聽說過的
17:04
that we should be afraid of the --
418
1006000
2000
我們應該害怕的十個理由 —
17:06
By the way,
419
1008000
2000
順便說一下，
17:08
I could have thought,
420
1010000
2000
我能想到，
17:10
I'd better not do this because
421
1012000
2000
我最好不要這樣做，因為
17:12
they say not to, you know.
422
1014000
2000
他們說不要，你知道。
17:14
And I'd better get permission
from the government.
from the government.
423
1016000
2000
我最好先得到許可。
17:16
If I'd have waited around for that,
424
1018000
2000
如果我真的浪費時間在等待獲得許可，
17:18
I would have never -- the frog would have died, you know.
425
1020000
3000
我不可能 — 青蛙活不了那麼久，你知道。
17:22
At any rate, I bring it up because it's a good story,
426
1024000
3000
無論如何，我提起這件事，因為這是一個很好的故事，
17:25
and he said, tell personal things, you know, and that's a personal --
427
1027000
2000
他說，說一些私人的事，你知道，這夠私人了吧 —
17:27
I was going to tell you about the first night that I met my wife,
428
1029000
2000
我本來打算要告訴你們的是，我遇見我妻子的第一個晚上，
17:30
but that would be too personal, wouldn't it.
429
1032000
2000
但那樣又太私人了，是不是。
17:33
So, so I've got something else that's not personal.
430
1035000
2000
所以，所以我還準備了別的，不是私人的故事。
17:35
But that ... process is what I think of as science,
431
1037000
3000
但是，這 ... 過程是我認為的科學，
17:38
see, where you start with some idea,
432
1040000
3000
看，你開始有一些想法，
17:41
and then instead of, like, looking up,
433
1043000
2000
然後，而不是像，查詢，
17:44
every authority that you've ever heard of
434
1046000
2000
每一個你聽說過的機關 —
17:46
I -- sometimes you do that,
435
1048000
2000
我 — 有時你這樣做，
17:48
if you're going to write a paper later,
436
1050000
2000
如果你打算未來要寫一篇論文，
17:50
you want to figure out who else has worked on it.
437
1052000
2000
你想要找出，還有誰曾經研究過這個題目。
17:52
But in the actual process, you get an idea --
438
1054000
2000
但在實際過程中，你得到一個想法 —
17:54
like, when I got the idea one night
439
1056000
2000
例如，某一晚當我有一個想法，
17:56
that I could amplify DNA with two oligonucleotides,
440
1058000
3000
我可以使用兩個寡核苷酸來放大 DNA 樣品，
17:59
and I could make lots of copies of some little piece of DNA,
441
1061000
2000
我可以做出一小段 DNA 非常非常多份的副本，
18:02
you know, the thinking for that
442
1064000
2000
你知道，該想法
18:04
was about 20 minutes while I was driving my car,
443
1066000
3000
只花了大約廿分鐘，當我開著我的車，
18:08
and then instead of going -- I went back and I did talk to people about it,
444
1070000
3000
然後而不是去 — 如果我回去後跟人們談論起這個想法，
18:11
but if I'd listened to what I heard from all my friends who were molecular biologists --
445
1073000
2000
如果我聽信我的分子生物學家朋友們的建議 —
18:16
I would have abandoned it.
446
1078000
2000
我會放棄這個想法。
18:18
You know, if I had gone back looking for an authority figure
447
1080000
2000
你知道，如果我回去找一個權威人物
18:20
who could tell me if it would work or not,
448
1082000
2000
讓他告訴我，這是否可行，
18:22
he would have said, no, it probably won't.
449
1084000
2000
他會說，不，它很可能不會。
18:24
Because the results of it were so spectacular
450
1086000
3000
因為它的結果是如此美妙，
18:28
that if it worked it was going to change everybody's goddamn way of doing molecular biology.
451
1090000
3000
如果它可行，它會改變每個人從事分子生物學研究的該死方式。
18:31
Nobody wants a chemist to come in
452
1093000
2000
沒有人想要一個化學家進來
18:33
and poke around in their stuff like that and change things.
453
1095000
3000
在他門的領域內到處亂搞，然後改變現狀。
18:36
But if you go to authority, and you always don't --
454
1098000
2000
如果你向專家諮詢，你總是不會 —
18:38
you don't always get the right answer, see.
455
1100000
2000
你並不總是得到正確的答案，是吧。
18:40
But I knew, you'd go into the lab
456
1102000
2000
但我知道，你會進入實驗室
18:42
and you'd try to make it work yourself. And then you're the authority,
457
1104000
2000
然後你會自己設法使之變為可行。然後你變成了權威，
18:44
and you can say, I know it works,
458
1106000
2000
你可以說，我知道它是一定可行的，
18:46
because right there in that tube
459
1108000
2000
因為在這個試管裡，
18:48
is where it happened,
460
1110000
2000
它已經成功過了，
18:50
and here, on this gel, there's a little band there
461
1112000
2000
在這裡，在這個膠上，這一條帶狀物，
18:52
that I know that's DNA, and that's the DNA I wanted to amplify,
462
1114000
3000
我知道那是 DNA，而且那就是我想要擴增的 DNA，
18:55
so there!
So it does work.
So it does work.
463
1117000
2000
所以我成功了！
18:57
You know, that's how you do science.
464
1119000
2000
你知道，這就是做科學研究的方法。
18:59
And then you say, well, what can make it work better?
465
1121000
2000
然後你說，好，還有什麼方法可以改進它的效率？
19:01
And then you figure out better and better ways to do it.
466
1123000
2000
然後你想出更好，更好的方式來做這個實驗。
19:03
But you always work from, from like, facts
467
1125000
2000
但你總是從事實開始著手，
19:05
that you have made available to you
468
1127000
3000
這個事實，是經由你的實驗證明，
19:08
by doing experiments: things that you could do on a stage.
469
1130000
2000
才成為事實的：那是你可以在舞台上重現的事情。
19:10
And no tricky shit behind the thing. I mean, it's all --
470
1132000
3000
在這東西背後並沒有所謂的秘訣這種狗屎蛋。我的意思是，它的所有 —
19:13
you've got to be very honest
471
1135000
2000
你必須很誠實的面對
19:15
with what you're doing if it really is going to work.
472
1137000
2000
你所從事的實驗的結果，不論它證明這方法可行與否。
19:17
I mean, you can't make up results,
473
1139000
2000
我的意思是，你不能捏造結果，
19:19
and then do another experiment based on that one.
474
1141000
2000
然後在這錯誤的結論上去進行下一個實驗。
19:21
So you have to be honest.
475
1143000
2000
所以，你必須是誠實的。
19:23
And I'm basically honest.
476
1145000
2000
而我基本上是誠實的。
19:25
I have a fairly bad memory, and dishonesty would always get me in trouble,
477
1147000
3000
我的記性不太好，說謊總是會為我惹來麻煩，
19:28
if I, like -- so I've just sort of been naturally honest
478
1150000
2000
如果我，就好像 — 我天生的老實
19:30
and naturally inquisitive,
479
1152000
2000
天生的好奇心
19:33
and that sort of leads to that kind of science.
480
1155000
2000
諸如此類的導致這種科學。
19:35
Now, let's see ...
481
1157000
2000
現在，讓我們來看看...
19:37
I've got another five minutes, right?
482
1159000
3000
我還有五分鐘，對不對？
19:40
OK. All scientists aren't like that.
483
1162000
3000
確定。不是所有的科學家都是這樣的。
19:44
You know -- and there is a lot --
484
1166000
2000
你知道 — 還有很多 —
19:46
(Laughter)
485
1168000
2000
（笑聲）
19:48
There is a lot -- a lot has been going on since
486
1170000
2000
還有很多 — 很多事情發生，
19:50
Isaac Newton and all that stuff happened.
487
1172000
3000
自從牛頓和所有那些事件發生後。
19:53
One of the things that happened right around World War II
488
1175000
2000
在第二次世界大戰期間發生的一件事情
19:55
in that same time period before,
489
1177000
2000
在這同一時期之前，
19:57
and as sure as hell afterwards,
490
1179000
2000
跟天殺的之後，
19:59
government got -- realized that scientists aren't strange dudes
491
1181000
3000
政府得到 — 意識到科學家並不是一群奇怪的人，
20:02
that, you know, hide in ivory towers
492
1184000
3000
這一點，你知道，隱藏在象牙塔
20:05
and do ridiculous things with test tube.
493
1187000
3000
並用試管做一些荒唐的事情。
20:08
Scientists, you know, made World War II
494
1190000
2000
科學家們，你知道，使第二次世界大戰
20:10
as we know it quite possible.
495
1192000
2000
就我們所知，成為可能。
20:12
They made faster things.
496
1194000
2000
他們做出更快的東西。
20:15
They made bigger guns to shoot them down with.
497
1197000
3000
他們做出更大的槍來射擊這些東西。
20:18
You know, they made drugs to give the pilots
498
1200000
3000
你知道，他們給飛行員毒品
20:21
if they were broken up in the process.
499
1203000
3000
如果他們在這過程中被打散了，
20:24
They made all kinds of -- and then finally one giant bomb
500
1206000
3000
他們製造所有 — 然後最後用一個大炸彈
20:27
to end the whole thing, right?
501
1209000
2000
來結束這整個事件，對不對？
20:29
And everybody stepped back a little and said, you know,
502
1211000
2000
每個人都往後退讓一步，說，你知道，
20:31
we ought to invest in this shit,
503
1213000
2000
我們應該投資這狗屎東西，
20:33
because whoever has got the most of these people
504
1215000
3000
因為得到了最多科學家為其工作的國家，
20:36
working in the places is going to have a dominant position,
505
1218000
3000
將在世界上站有主導的地位，
20:39
at least in the military, and probably in all kind of economic ways.
506
1221000
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至少在軍事上，更有可能在各種經濟領域上。
20:42
And they got involved in it, and the scientific
507
1224000
2000
他們涉入這些領域，為科學
20:44
and industrial establishment was born,
508
1226000
2000
與工業奠定了基礎，
20:46
and out of that came a lot of scientists
509
1228000
2000
從那個時候開始，很多科學家
20:48
who were in there for the money, you know,
510
1230000
3000
是為了錢而做研究，你知道，
20:51
because it was suddenly available.
511
1233000
2000
因為錢突然不再是遙不可及。
20:53
And they weren't the curious little boys
512
1235000
2000
而且他們不是那個喜歡把青蛙投入空中的
20:55
that liked to put frogs up in the air.
513
1237000
2000
好奇的小男孩。
20:57
They were the same people that later went in to medical school, you know,
514
1239000
3000
他們與後來去唸醫學院的是同一批人，你知道，
21:00
because there was money in it, you know. I mean, later, then they all got into business --
515
1242000
3000
因為那邊有錢，你知道。我的意思是，後來，他們都與商業活動扯上關係 —
21:03
I mean, there are waves of -- going into your high school,
516
1245000
3000
我的意思是，有一股潮流正在進入你的高中，
21:06
person saying, you want to be rich, you know, be a scientist. You know, not anymore.
517
1248000
3000
這些人說，你想做正確的，你知道，成為一名科學家。你知道，現在不是了。
21:09
You want to be rich, you be a businessman.
518
1251000
2000
你想致富，成為一個商人。
21:11
But a lot of people got in it for the money and the power and the travel.
519
1253000
3000
雖然很多人為了金錢和權力和旅行從事科學。
21:14
That's back when travel was easy.
520
1256000
3000
這是當旅行很還是悠閒的時候。
21:18
And those people don't think --
521
1260000
2000
而這些人並不認為 —
21:20
they don't --
522
1262000
2000
他們不 —
21:22
they don't always tell you the truth, you know.
523
1264000
2000
他們並不總是告訴你真相，你知道。
21:24
There is nothing in their contract, in fact,
524
1266000
2000
在他們的合約中沒有任何東西，事實上，
21:26
that makes it to their advantage always,
525
1268000
2000
對他們是有利的，一如既往，
21:28
to tell you the truth.
526
1270000
2000
如果他們告訴你真相的話。
21:30
And the people I'm talking about are people that like --
527
1272000
3000
而這些人，我說的人們是 —
21:33
they say that they're a member of the committee
528
1275000
3000
他們說，他們是委員會成員
21:36
called, say, the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change.
529
1278000
4000
舉例來說，政府間氣候變化專門委員會。
21:40
And they -- and they have these big meetings where they try to figure out
530
1282000
3000
他們 — 他們召開了這些重大會議，試圖找出
21:44
how we're going to -- how we're going to continually prove
531
1286000
2000
我們如何去 — 我們如何不斷證明
21:46
that the planet is getting warmer,
532
1288000
3000
地球正在變暖，
21:49
when that's actually contrary to most people's sensations.
533
1291000
3000
這實際上違背大多數人的感覺。
21:52
I mean, if you actually measure
534
1294000
2000
我的意思是，如果你真的去測量
21:54
the temperature over a period --
535
1296000
2000
一段時間的溫度 —
21:56
I mean, the temperature has been measured now
536
1298000
2000
我的意思是，我們已經用很精確的方式
21:58
pretty carefully for about 50, 60 years --
537
1300000
3000
持續測量溫度 5、60 年了 —
22:01
longer than that it's been measured,
538
1303000
2000
更早之前仍然有測量數據，
22:03
but in really nice, precise ways,
539
1305000
2000
但是使用真好且精確的方法測量，
22:05
and records have been kept for 50 or 60 years,
540
1307000
3000
這測量記錄已經被保持了 50 或 60 年，
22:08
and in fact, the temperature hadn't really gone up.
541
1310000
2000
而事實上，溫度並沒有真正的上升。
22:10
It's like, the average temperature
542
1312000
2000
這就像，平均溫度
22:12
has gone up a tiny little bit,
543
1314000
2000
上升了一點點，
22:14
because the nighttime temperatures
544
1316000
3000
那是因為氣象站
22:17
at the weather stations have come up just a little bit.
545
1319000
2000
的夜間氣溫上升了一點點。
22:19
But there's a good explanation for that.
546
1321000
2000
但是，這有一個很好理由。
22:21
And it's that the weather stations are all built outside of town,
547
1323000
3000
因為這些氣象觀測站都建立在城市四周，
22:24
where the airport was, and now
548
1326000
2000
在機場附近，而現在
22:26
the town's moved out there, there's concrete all around
549
1328000
2000
城鎮擴展到了那邊，到處都是鋼筋水泥，
22:28
and they call it the skyline effect.
550
1330000
2000
他們稱之為天際線效應。
22:30
And most responsible people
551
1332000
2000
然而大部分負責的人
22:32
that measure temperatures realize
552
1334000
2000
測量溫度後發現，
22:34
you have to shield your measuring device from that.
553
1336000
2000
你必須將你的測量儀器遮蔽以避免鋼筋水泥的干擾。
22:36
And even then, you know,
554
1338000
3000
即使如此，你知道，
22:39
because the buildings get warm in the daytime,
555
1341000
1000
因為建築物在白天吸收熱量，
22:40
and they keep it a little warmer at night.
556
1342000
2000
因此它們會讓夜間的氣溫上升一點。
22:42
So the temperature has been, sort of, inching up.
557
1344000
2000
因此，氣溫在某方面來說，看來是在緩慢地上升。
22:44
It should have been. But not a lot. Not like, you know --
558
1346000
3000
這是應該發生的。但程度有限。不像，你知道 —
22:47
the first guy -- the first guy that got the idea
559
1349000
2000
第一人 — 第一個有我們會將自己烤焦
22:49
that we're going to fry ourselves here,
560
1351000
2000
這個想法的傢伙，
22:51
actually, he didn't think of it that way.
561
1353000
2000
事實上，他並不是這樣想的。
22:53
His name was Sven Arrhenius. He was Swedish, and he said,
562
1355000
3000
他的名字叫斯文•阿崙尼烏斯 (Sven Arrhenius)。他是瑞典人，他說，
22:56
if you double the CO2 level in the atmosphere,
563
1358000
3000
如果二氧化碳在大氣中的含量變成兩倍
22:59
which he thought might -- this is in 1900 --
564
1361000
2000
他認為這有可能發生 — 這是1900 年的事 —
23:02
the temperature ought to go up about 5.5 degrees, he calculated.
565
1364000
3000
根據他的計算，溫度應該會上升約 5.5 度。
23:05
He was thinking of the earth as, kind of like,
566
1367000
2000
他將地球想成，有點像，
23:07
you know, like a completely insulated thing
567
1369000
3000
你知道，像一個完全絕緣的東西
23:10
with no stuff in it, really,
568
1372000
2000
裡面沒有東西，真的，
23:12
just energy coming down, energy leaving.
569
1374000
2000
只有能源下來，能源離開。
23:14
And so he came up with this theory,
570
1376000
2000
於是他想出了這個理論，
23:16
and he said, this will be cool,
571
1378000
2000
他說，這將是很好的，
23:18
because it'll be a longer growing season in Sweden,
572
1380000
3000
因為這表示瑞典的農作生長季將會變長，
23:21
you know, and the surfers liked it,
573
1383000
2000
你知道，和衝浪者也喜歡這理論，
23:23
the surfers thought, that's a cool idea,
574
1385000
2000
衝浪者認為，這是很好的理論，
23:25
because it's pretty cold in the ocean sometimes, and --
575
1387000
3000
因為海洋有時後相當寒冷，還有 —
23:28
but a lot of other people later on
576
1390000
2000
但許多其他人稍後
23:30
started thinking it would be bad, you know.
577
1392000
2000
開始認為這是壞的，你知道。
23:33
But nobody actually demonstrated it, right?
578
1395000
2000
但是沒有人真正證明它，對不對？
23:35
I mean, the temperature as measured --
579
1397000
2000
我的意思是，測量到的溫度 —
23:37
and you can find this on our wonderful Internet,
580
1399000
2000
你可以在我們美妙的網際網路上找到，
23:39
you just go and look for all NASAs records,
581
1401000
3000
你只要去搜尋所有航太總署
23:42
and all the Weather Bureau's records,
582
1404000
2000
和氣象局的記錄，
23:44
and you'll look at it yourself, and you'll see, the temperature has just --
583
1406000
3000
親自看看它，你會看到，氣溫剛剛 —
23:47
the nighttime temperature measured on the surface of the planet
584
1409000
3000
在夜間所測量到的地表溫度
23:50
has gone up a tiny little bit.
585
1412000
2000
上升了一點點。
23:52
So if you just average that and the daytime temperature, it looks like it went up
586
1414000
2000
因此，如果你直接和白天的溫度平均，它看起來像是
23:54
about .7 degrees in this century.
587
1416000
3000
在這個世紀中上升了大約 0.7 度。
23:57
But in fact, it was just coming up --
588
1419000
2000
但事實上，這只是上升了 —
23:59
it was the nighttime; the daytime temperatures didn't go up.
589
1421000
2000
只有夜間，白天的氣溫並沒有上升。
24:01
So -- and Arrhenius' theory --
590
1423000
3000
所以 — 阿崙尼烏斯的理論 —
24:04
and all the global warmers think --
591
1426000
2000
和所有全球暖化信徒們認為 —
24:06
they would say, yeah, it should go up in the daytime, too,
592
1428000
2000
他們會說，是啊，它應該在白天也上升，
24:08
if it's the greenhouse effect.
593
1430000
2000
如果是溫室效應的話。
24:10
Now, people like things that have, like, names like that,
594
1432000
3000
現在，人們喜歡東西有個名稱，像這樣，
24:13
that they can envision it, right? I mean --
595
1435000
3000
所以他們可以想像，對吧？我的意思是 —
24:16
but people don't like things like this, so -- most -- I mean,
596
1438000
2000
但人們不喜歡這樣的事情，所以 — 我的意思是，
24:18
you don't get all excited about things
597
1440000
2000
你對於真正的證據
24:21
like the actual evidence, you know,
598
1443000
2000
不會感到興奮，你知道，
24:23
which would be evidence for strengthening
599
1445000
2000
這是強化 90 年代熱帶環流增強
24:25
of the tropical circulation in the 1990s.
600
1447000
3000
的證據。
24:28
It's a paper that came out in February,
601
1450000
2000
這是一個科學論文，在二月刊出，
24:30
and most of you probably hadn't heard about it.
602
1452000
3000
你們大多數人可能還沒有聽說過。
24:33
"Evidence for Large Decadal Variability
603
1455000
2000
「熱帶輻射平均能量
24:35
in the Tropical Mean Radiative Energy Budget."
604
1457000
3000
在十年間中的大變動」
24:39
Excuse me. Those papers were published by NASA,
605
1461000
3000
對不起。這些論文是由航太總署發表，
24:42
and some scientists at Columbia, and Viliki
606
1464000
2000
一些科學家在哥倫比亞和維利基
24:44
and a whole bunch of people, Princeton.
607
1466000
3000
和一大堆普林斯頓大學的人。
24:47
And those two papers came out in Science Magazine,
608
1469000
3000
而這兩篇論文是出自科學期刊，
24:50
February the first,
609
1472000
2000
2月，第一篇論文，
24:52
and these -- the conclusion in both of these papers,
610
1474000
3000
和這些 — 這些論文的結論，
24:55
and in also the Science editor's, like,
611
1477000
3000
同時也是科學期刊編輯們的看法，像是，
24:58
descriptions of these papers, for, you know,
612
1480000
2000
這些文件的說明，因為，你知道，
25:00
for the quickie,
613
1482000
2000
對想要快速知道結論的人，
25:02
is that our theories about global warming
614
1484000
2000
我們對全球暖化的理論是
25:04
are completely wrong. I mean,
615
1486000
2000
完全錯誤的。我的意思是，
25:06
what these guys were doing,
616
1488000
2000
這些傢伙在做什麼，
25:08
and this is what -- the NASA people have been saying this for a long time.
617
1490000
3000
這就是 — 航太總署的人很長的一段時間一直在提的。
25:11
They say, if you measure the temperature of the atmosphere, it isn't going up --
618
1493000
3000
他們說，如果你測量大氣的溫度，它並沒有上升 —
25:14
it's not going up at all. We've doing it very carefully now for 20 years,
619
1496000
3000
它一點都沒有上升。我們已經很仔細地觀察了廿年，
25:17
from satellites, and it isn't going up.
620
1499000
3000
經由衛星觀測，氣溫並沒有上升。
25:20
And in this paper, they show something much more striking,
621
1502000
3000
而在此論文中，他們發表了更令人吃驚，
25:23
and that was that they did what they call a radiation --
622
1505000
3000
那是他們所謂的輻射 —
25:26
and I'm not going to go into the details of it, actually it's quite complicated,
623
1508000
3000
我並不打算詳細討論，其實這是相當複雜的，
25:29
but it isn't as complicated as they might make you think it is
624
1511000
3000
但它其實並不像他們想要讓你感覺地這樣複雜，
25:32
by the words they use in those papers. If you really get down to it, they say,
625
1514000
3000
只因為他們故意在論文中使用了艱澀的詞彙。但如果你真的理解它，他們說，
25:35
the sun puts out a certain amount of energy --
626
1517000
2000
太陽提供了一定數量的能源 —
25:37
we know how much that is --
627
1519000
2000
我們知道有多少是 —
25:39
it falls on the earth, the earth gives back a certain amount.
628
1521000
2000
落在地球上的，地球反射了一定數量。
25:41
When it gets warm it generates --
629
1523000
3000
當它變暖，它也同時產生 —
25:44
it makes redder energy -- I mean, like infra-red,
630
1526000
3000
更多紅色的能量 — 我的意思是，像紅外線，
25:47
like something that's warm gives off infra-red.
631
1529000
3000
熱的東西會散發出紅外線。
25:50
The whole business of the global warming --
632
1532000
2000
整個全球變暖的理論 —
25:52
trash, really,
633
1534000
2000
垃圾，真的，
25:54
is that -- if the -- if there's too much CO2 in the atmosphere,
634
1536000
3000
是 — 如果 — 如果有太多的二氧化碳在大氣中，
25:57
the heat that's trying to escape
635
1539000
2000
試圖脫離的熱量
25:59
won't be able to get out. But the heat coming from the sun,
636
1541000
3000
無法脫身。但是，來自太陽的熱量，
26:02
which is mostly down in the -- it's like 350 nanometers,
637
1544000
3000
大多數是 — 350 納米的紫外線，
26:05
which is where it's centered -- that goes right through CO2.
638
1547000
3000
這是它的中心 — 這種能量能通過二氧化碳。
26:08
So you still get heated, but you don't dissipate any.
639
1550000
2000
所以，地球仍然持續被加熱，但熱量消散不掉。
26:10
Well, these guys measured all of those things.
640
1552000
2000
那麼，這些傢伙衡量所有這些事情。
26:12
I mean, you can talk about that stuff,
641
1554000
2000
我的意思是，你可以談論的東西，
26:14
and you can write these large reports, and you can get government money to do it,
642
1556000
3000
你可以寫這些大報告，你可以得到政府的錢來進行研究，
26:17
but these -- they actually measured it,
643
1559000
3000
但這些 — 他們實際上衡量它，
26:20
and it turns out that in the last 10 years --
644
1562000
2000
結果證明在過去的10年 —
26:22
that's why they say "decadal" there --
645
1564000
2000
這就是為什麼他們說「十年間」—
26:24
that the energy -- that the level
646
1566000
3000
該能源 — 他們所謂
26:27
of what they call "imbalance"
647
1569000
2000
「失衡」的程度，
26:29
has been way the hell over what was expected.
648
1571000
3000
已遠遠超過預期。
26:32
Like, the amount of imbalance --
649
1574000
3000
像，失衡程度 —
26:35
meaning, heat's coming in and it's not going out
650
1577000
3000
意味著，熱量持續進來，不會被排出，
26:38
that you would get from having double the CO2,
651
1580000
2000
原因來自於二氧化碳含量的倍增，
26:40
which we're not anywhere near that, by the way.
652
1582000
3000
順帶一題，真正二氧化碳含量的增加遠低於那個值。
26:43
But if we did, in 2025 or something,
653
1585000
2000
但是，如果真的倍增了，例如也許在 2025 年
26:45
have double the CO2 as we had in 1900,
654
1587000
3000
二氧化碳的含量真的拿到 1990 年的兩倍，
26:48
they say it would be increase the energy budget
655
1590000
2000
他們說，這將增加能源
26:50
by about -- in other words,
656
1592000
3000
約 — 換句話說，
26:53
one watt per square centimeter more
657
1595000
2000
每平方公分被吸收的熱量
26:55
would be coming in than going out.
658
1597000
2000
將會比被散發的熱量多出一瓦。
26:57
So the planet should get warmer.
659
1599000
3000
因此，地球將會暖化。
27:00
Well, they found out in this study -- these two studies
660
1602000
2000
那麼，他們在這篇論文中發現，在這 — 這兩項研究，
27:02
by two different teams --
661
1604000
2000
分別由兩個不同的團隊所完成 —
27:04
that five and a half watts
662
1606000
2000
每平方公尺
27:06
per square meter
663
1608000
2000
5.5 瓦的熱量
27:08
had been coming in from 1998, 1999,
664
1610000
3000
從 1998、1999 年來一直被吸收著，
27:11
and the place didn't get warmer.
665
1613000
2000
但是該地並沒有變暖。
27:13
So the theory's kaput -- it's nothing.
666
1615000
2000
因此，這理論的過時了 — 沒有價值。
27:15
These papers should have been called,
667
1617000
2000
這篇論文應該被稱為，
27:17
"The End to the Global Warming Fiasco," you know.
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「全球暖化的慘敗下場」你知道。
27:20
They're concerned,
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他們擔心，
27:22
and you can tell they have very guarded conclusions in these papers,
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你可以看出他們非常小心謹慎的為這些論文總結，
27:25
because they're talking about big laboratories
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因為他們所談論的是大實驗室
27:27
that are funded by lots of money
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是由大量的資金
27:29
and by scared people.
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和一群膽小的人所資助。
27:31
You know, if they said, you know what?
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你知道，如果他們說，你知道嗎？
27:33
There isn't a problem with global warming any longer,
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全球暖化不再是一個問題了，
27:35
so we can -- you know, they're funding.
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所以我們可以 — 你知道，他們掌握了資金。
27:37
And if you start a grant request with something like that,
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如果你再寫一個類似的研究計畫經費申請書，
27:40
and say, global warming obviously hadn't happened ...
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並說，全球暖化顯然沒有發生 ...
27:42
if they -- if they -- if they actually -- if they actually said that,
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如果 — 如果他們 — 如果他們真的 — 如果他們真的說，
27:44
I'm getting out.
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我要離開了。
27:46
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
27:49
I'll stand up too, and --
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我也要站起來了，而且 —
27:51
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
27:53
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
27:56
They have to say that.
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他們要這樣說。
27:58
They had to be very cautious.
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他們必須非常謹慎。
28:00
But what I'm saying is, you can be delighted,
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但我要說的是，你可以感到高興，
28:02
because the editor of Science, who is no dummy,
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因為科學期刊的編輯，不是傻子
28:05
and both of these fairly professional --
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他們相當專業 —
28:08
really professional teams, have really come to the same conclusion
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真正的專業隊伍，擁有同樣的結論
28:11
and in the bottom lines in their papers
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並在他們論文的結論中都說，
28:13
they have to say, what this means is, that what we've been thinking,
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他們必須要說，這個意思是說，我們一直在想的，
28:16
was the global circulation model that we predict
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我們的全球大氣環流模型預測，
28:18
that the earth is going to get overheated
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地球將會過熱，
28:20
that it's all wrong. It's wrong by a large factor.
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是錯誤的。是大大的錯誤。
28:23
It's not by a small one. They just --
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這不是小事。他們只是 —
28:26
they just misinterpreted the fact that the earth --
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他們只是曲解了事實，即地球 —
28:29
there's obviously some mechanisms going on
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有一些機制顯然正在進行
28:31
that nobody knew about,
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沒有人了解，
28:33
because the heat's coming in and it isn't getting warmer.
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因為熱量持續的被吸收，但是並沒有變暖。
28:35
So the planet is a pretty amazing thing, you know,
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因此，星球是一個相當神奇的東西，你知道，
28:38
it's big and horrible -- and big and wonderful,
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它大而可怕 — 同時也大而美妙，
28:40
and it does all kinds of things we don't know anything about.
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而且關於它的一切所作所為，我們都尚未明白。
28:43
So I mean, the reason I put those things all together,
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所以我的意思是，我之所以把這些事情湊在一起，
28:45
OK, here's the way you're supposed to do science --
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這樣說吧，這是你進行科學研究應該使用的方法 —
28:47
some science is done for other reasons, and just curiosity.
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某些科學研究是為了一些其他理由而進行的，有些僅僅是因為好奇。
28:50
And there's a lot of things like global warming,
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而且還有很多的事情就如同全球暖化一般，
28:52
and ozone hole and you know,
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還有臭氧層的破洞，你知道，
28:54
a whole bunch of scientific public issues,
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一大堆的科學的公共事務，
28:56
that if you're interested in them,
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如果你對它們感興趣，
28:58
then you have to get down the details, and read the papers called,
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那麼你必須要了解其中的細節，去讀那篇叫做
29:01
"Large Decadal Variability in the ... "
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「十年間大變化的...」的論文。
29:03
You have to figure out what all those words mean.
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你必須搞清楚每個字的意含。
29:05
And if you just listen to the guys
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如果你只是聽信那些傢伙
29:07
who are hyping those issues, and making a lot of money out of it,
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在炒作問題，並藉此賺了很多錢，
29:10
you'll be misinformed, and you'll be worrying about the wrong things.
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你將會被誤導，對不必要的事物感到操心。
29:13
Remember the 10 things that are going to get you. The -- one of them --
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還記得十件可能發生的大災害。 — 其中之一 —
29:16
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
29:18
And the asteroids is the one I really agree with there.
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其中一點我非常同意的是，小行星碰撞地球。
29:21
I mean, you've got to watch out for asteroids. OK, thank you for having me here.
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我的意思是，你要小心小行星碰撞。好嗎，謝謝你們讓我在此演說。
29:24
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Kary Mullis - BiochemistKary Mullis won the Nobel Prize in Chemistry for developing a way to copy a strand of DNA. (His technique, called PCR, jump-started the 1990s' biorevolution.) He's known for his wide-ranging interests -- and strong opinions.
Why you should listen
In the early 1980s, Kary Mullis developed the polymerase chain reaction, an elegant way to make copies of a DNA strand using the enzyme polymerase and some basic DNA "building blocks." The process opened the door to more in-depth study of DNA -- like the Human Genome Project. Mullis shared the 1993 Nobel Prize in Chemistry for developing this technique.
As he tells it, after winning the Nobel Prize, his next career move was to learn how to surf. It's typical of Mullis, whose scientific method is to get deeply curious about a topic, work it out from first principles, and then imagine the next giant leap forward. As he puts it in his Nobel autobiography, revised several times since 1993, "I read a lot, and think a lot, and I can talk about almost anything. Being a Nobel laureate is a license to be an expert in lots of things as long as you do your homework."
Most recently, he's been taking a hard look at immunity; a recent patent from his company Altermune describes the redirection of an existing immune response to a new pathogen.
Kary Mullis | Speaker | TED.com