Bina Venkataraman: The power to think ahead in a reckless age
比娜·文卡塔拉曼: 在蛮干时代中超前思考的力量
Bina Venkataraman is an MIT professor and author of the forthcoming book "The Optimist's Telescope." Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
for the blood of the American-born.
I got an unexpected gift.
收到了一份出乎意料的礼物。
手工雕刻出来的,
at the time I got it,
a powerful metaphor for my work.
相关的一个有力的隐喻。
like there's no time but the present.
只有现在,没有其他了。
seems to dominate our lives,
似乎主宰着我们的生活,
in the number of steps we took today
走了多少步而兴奋,
from a high-profile figure.
最新的推文而着迷。
in making immediate profits
for future invention.
for governments to stand by
供养子孙后代而开展保护相比,
to feed future generations.
to be remembered as good ancestors.
我们是好的祖先。
our species evolved to think ahead,
种族进化到能够提前计划,
that we have "mental time travel,"
叫做“精神时空旅行。”
everything we call human civilization,
所有的东西成为了可能,
头脑中被设想出来的。
using this superpower quite enough,
使用这个超能力,
businesses and institutions are designed.
和机构的设计方式。
that's impairing our foresight.
about the three key mistakes
profits of a company
is going to grow its market share
that kids bring back from school,
带回家的考试分数时,
what's great for those kids' learning
what really matters in the future.
真正重要的东西。
that impairs our foresight
远见的第二个错误
or a business leader
those disasters in the first place,
避免灾难的再次发生,
by protecting communities from floods
为未来支付首付款,
that impairs our foresight
接下来究竟会发生什么,
on predicting exactly what's next,
or algorithms to do that.
all the possibilities the future holds.
想象未来的所有可能性。
emerged in 2014 in West Africa,
had early warning signs
that outbreak might spread,
in time to intervene,
to kill more than 11,000 people.
超过一万一千人为之送命。
and good forecasts
how dangerous they can be.
这些飓风有多危险。
that I've described,
better decisions about the future
like the telescopes
when they scanned the horizon.
across distance and the ocean,
为了在海洋中寻找远方,
across time to the future.
few of the tools
the long game pay now.
I spent some time with in Kansas.
一位堪萨斯州的农民。
are grown around the world today
of the fertile topsoil
with a group of scientists,
which have deep roots
这些作物有很深的根,
and protecting future harvests.
保护未来的收成。
to grow these crops in the short run,
the annual yields of the crops
to make cereal and beer using the grains
生产麦片和啤酒的公司。
by doing what's good for tomorrow.
今天也能获得利润。
by George Washington Carver
after the Civil War
of Carver's 300 uses for the peanut,
的“花生的三百种用法”,
that he came up with
why Carver did that.
卡弗为什么要做这些。
poor Alabama sharecroppers
棉花产量在锐减
peanuts in their fields
would be better a few years later.
在几年后恢复。
to be lucrative for them in the short run.
有利可图也是必要的。
about another tool for foresight.
能让我们有远见的工具。
as keeping the memory of the past alive
保持过去的鲜活记忆
of the nuclear reactor disaster there
and tsunami of 2011.
大地震大海啸的六年后。
about the Onagawa Nuclear Power Station,
to the epicenter of that earthquake
的福岛核电站
that we all know about.
actually fled to the nuclear power plant
to build that power plant
and with a higher sea wall.
in the year 869 after a tsunami.
that allowed him to imagine
as creating shared heirlooms.
创造共享的传家宝。
on the Pacific coast of Mexico,
有一群捕捉龙虾的渔民
their lobster harvest there
by treating it as a shared resource
将龙虾看作是共享的资源,
children and grandchildren.
他们的后代子孙,
the breeding lobster out of the ocean.
龙虾捕捉出来。
there are more than 30 fisheries
vaguely similar to this.
in the fisheries known as catch shares
的利益关系,即所谓的“捕捞份额”,
from the ocean today
能够获得的东西,
many more tools of foresight
我们看得更远的工具,
beyond near-term stock prices,
of campaign financiers.
as many of these tools as we can
我们所衡量的东西,
to imagine what lies ahead.
as you can imagine.
we can pick up in our own lives,
在生活中可以学会的,
in businesses or in communities,
才能发挥作用,
is the instrument I shared with you.
我刚与你们分享的工具。
for my great-grandfather.
music and art critic in India
曾是印度知名的
to protect this instrument
was pawning off all their belongings,
当掉所有的东西维持生计,
to the next generation,
the sound of this instrument,
in the Himalayan fog.
a voice from the past.
playing the dilruba.
习慕兰·辛格所演奏的片段。
like a cat's dying somewhere,
听起来好像有只猫濒临惨死,
播放这段美妙的旋律。
than just owning it for today.
这对我来说更有意义。
as both a descendant and an ancestor.
后人和祖先之间。
bigger than my own.
历史长河的一部分。
we can reclaim foresight:
唯一最有力的方式:
as the good ancestors we long to be,
can resonate for generations.
在代际之间产生共鸣。
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Bina Venkataraman - Writer, futuristBina Venkataraman is an MIT professor and author of the forthcoming book "The Optimist's Telescope."
Why you should listen
For more than six years, Bina Venkataraman has been traveling around the world studying how people and communities think about the future. Her curiosity as a former journalist, and her firsthand experience in the Obama White House, led her to question whether the shortsightedness rampant in today's societies is inevitable -- or actually "a choice we're making."
During the Obama years, Venkataraman built partnerships among communities, companies and government to prepare for coming pandemics, wildfires and rising seas. In 2014, she launched the White House Climate Data Initiative to bring actionable climate science to people making decisions around the globe. Previously, she was a science journalist for the New York Times and the Boston Globe. Now, she teaches students at MIT to use scientific knowledge in service of society.
As Venkataraman writes: "For as long as I can remember, I have suspected that the future of humanity depended on the future of the planet. I have since found this to be the most compelling story of our time. As I imagine what lies in our shared future, from gene-editing to the climate crisis, I see both dangers and extraordinary potential."
Venkataraman wrote her first book, The Optimist's Telescope (to be published by Riverhead on August 27, 2019), to help people today better shape their own future and that of coming generations.
Bina Venkataraman | Speaker | TED.com