Nick Bostrom: How civilization could destroy itself -- and 4 ways we could prevent it
Nick Bostrom asks big questions: What should we do, as individuals and as a species, to optimize our long-term prospects? Will humanity’s technological advancements ultimately destroy us? Full bioChris Anderson - TED Curator
After a long career in journalism and publishing, Chris Anderson became the curator of the TED Conference in 2002 and has developed it as a platform for identifying and disseminating ideas worth spreading. Full bio
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so many crazy ideas out there.
all be living in a simulation,
of how artificial general intelligence
the vulnerable world hypothesis.
give the illustrated guide to that.
of the current human condition.
possible technologies.
of human creativity
and pulling out one ball after another,
has been hugely beneficial, right?
mixed blessings.
pulled out the black ball --
the civilization that discovers it.
about what could such a black ball be.
bring about civilizational destruction.
the semi-anarchic default condition.
we've actually got lucky,
that death ball
it's just meant to illustrate
at pulling out balls,
to put the ball back into the urn, right.
no black ball in the urn.
and you can't put it back in,
of these examples.
types of vulnerability.
that just makes it very easy
source of that kind of black ball,
really great, right?
to get too easy either,
and his grandmother
alter the earth's climate.
killer bot swarms.
artificial general intelligence.
that when we discovered
accessible to anyone.
some breakthroughs in nuclear physics,
to create a nuclear chain reaction
that this could lead to the bomb.
to make a nuclear bomb
massive amounts of energy.
to unlock the energy of the atom.
in the microwave oven
a nuclear detonation.
physically impossible.
how it would turn out?
massive nuclear reactions relatively easy,
that is easy to do on purpose
on top of one another,
like, a stack of 10 blocks.
is perhaps the quickest route
in our near future to get us here.
about what that would have meant
in their kitchen for an afternoon
modern civilization as we know it
of a million people,
who would, for whatever reason,
of vulnerability.
kind of obvious types of black balls
to blow up a lot of things,
by creating bad incentives
that incentivizes great powers
to create destruction.
very close to this, right?
over 10 trillion dollars
during the Cold War
this would be a great idea,
to blow ourselves up,
that we were finding ourselves --
a safe first strike.
all their nuclear missiles.
that the other side might do it.
more unstable than it was.
other properties of technology.
to have arms treaties,
or something less distinctive.
for powerful actors,
for all of us, in Type-2b here.
take the case of global warming.
have no significant effect, right?
could have been a lot worse than it is.
sensitivity parameter, right.
how much warmer does it get
of greenhouse gases.
of greenhouse gases we emitted,
15 degrees or 20 degrees.
in a very bad situation.
had just been a lot harder to do.
more fossil fuels in the ground.
that if in that case of --
in the time period that we could see,
off its ass and done something about it.
maybe that stupid.
to switch to renewables and stuff, right,
with slightly different physics,
to do these things.
these possibilities together,
well be various black balls in the urn,
protect against black balls.
they will come out.
philosophical critique of this idea
that the future is essentially settled.
is that ball there or it's not.
that I want to believe.
that the future is undetermined,
we pull out of that urn.
pull out all the balls.
of weak form of technological determinism
to encounter a society
of a technology as a set of affordances.
that enables us to do various things
of course depends on human choice.
three types of vulnerability,
about how we would choose to use them.
this massive, destructive power,
of millions of people
to use it destructively.
disturbing argument
some kind of view into the urn
very likely that we're doomed.
in accelerating power,
that make us more powerful,
can take us all down,
to use those powers,
that kind of help us control
let's talk about the response.
about all the possibilities
it's things like cyberwarfare,
serious doom in our future.
four possible responses as well.
doesn't seem promising,
to technological progress.
even if we could do it.
slower technological progress.
faster progress in bioweapons,
fully on board with that.
push back on that for a minute.
of the last couple of decades,
push forward at full speed,
and the rapid acceleration of that,
"move fast and break things"
for synthetic biology,
move forward rapidly
a DNA printer in every home
the first part, the not feasible.
desirable to stop it,
if one nation kind of --
if one nation does,
the nuclear threat,
the painful process of negotiating.
that we, as a matter of global priority,
really strict rules
that you want to democratize, no?
has their own device,
four or five places in the world
and the DNA comes back, right?
like it was necessary,
a finite set of choke points.
for kind of special opportunities,
in just holding back.
North Korea, you know --
and discover this knowledge,
under current conditions.
new change in the world
another possible response.
has only limited potential.
of people who are incentivized
access and the means,
flying around the world
showing signs of sociopathic behavior,
like, incarcerate or kill,
to a better view of the world.
extremely successful in this,
of such individuals by half.
all other powerful forces
would be reduced by half.
humanity's future on response two.
to try to deter and persuade people,
as our only safeguard.
the ability to stabilize the world
of possible vulnerabilities.
this dangerous thing,
in real time, and stop them.
ubiquitous surveillance,
essentially, a form of.
that were reviewing this, etc., etc.
is not a very popular term right now?
that you would have to wear at all times
or something like that.
such a mind-blowing conversation.
a whole big conversation on this
with that, right?
another governance gap.
governance gap at the microlevel,
from ever doing something highly illegal.
governance gap
of global coordination failures,
the Type-2a vulnerabilities.
of fashion right now,
that throughout history,
of technological power increase,
and sort of centralized the power.
when a roving band of criminals
well, you have a nation-state
a police force or an army,
a single person or a single group
we're going to have to go this route,
of political organization has increased
and so on and so forth.
and to global governance.
that if we are lucky,
that these would be the only ways
we can't have it all.
that many of us had
going to be a force for good,
go as fast as you can
to some of the consequences,
very uncomfortable things with it,
arms race with ourselves
you better limit it,
it's in a sense the easiest option
vulnerable to extracting a black ball.
macrogovernance problem,
all the balls from the urn
in a simulation, does it matter?
how likely is it that we're doomed?
when you ask that question.
just with the time line,
and all kinds of things, right?
so that you can attach a probability,
probably you'll die of natural causes,
you might have a 100-year --
on who you ask.
as civilizational devastation?
an existential catastrophe
you say the threshold is,
put me down as a frightened optimist.
a large number of other frightened ...
the living daylights out of us.
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Nick Bostrom - PhilosopherNick Bostrom asks big questions: What should we do, as individuals and as a species, to optimize our long-term prospects? Will humanity’s technological advancements ultimately destroy us?
Why you should listen
Philosopher Nick Bostrom envisioned a future full of human enhancement, nanotechnology and machine intelligence long before they became mainstream concerns. From his famous simulation argument -- which identified some striking implications of rejecting the Matrix-like idea that humans are living in a computer simulation -- to his work on existential risk, Bostrom approaches both the inevitable and the speculative using the tools of philosophy, probability theory, and scientific analysis.
Since 2005, Bostrom has led the Future of Humanity Institute, a research group of mathematicians, philosophers and scientists at Oxford University tasked with investigating the big picture for the human condition and its future. He has been referred to as one of the most important thinkers of our age.
Nick was honored as one of Foreign Policy's 2015 Global Thinkers .
His recent book Superintelligence advances the ominous idea that “the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make.”
Nick Bostrom | Speaker | TED.com
Chris Anderson - TED Curator
After a long career in journalism and publishing, Chris Anderson became the curator of the TED Conference in 2002 and has developed it as a platform for identifying and disseminating ideas worth spreading.
Why you should listen
Chris Anderson is the Curator of TED, a nonprofit devoted to sharing valuable ideas, primarily through the medium of 'TED Talks' -- short talks that are offered free online to a global audience.
Chris was born in a remote village in Pakistan in 1957. He spent his early years in India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, where his parents worked as medical missionaries, and he attended an American school in the Himalayas for his early education. After boarding school in Bath, England, he went on to Oxford University, graduating in 1978 with a degree in philosophy, politics and economics.
Chris then trained as a journalist, working in newspapers and radio, including two years producing a world news service in the Seychelles Islands.
Back in the UK in 1984, Chris was captivated by the personal computer revolution and became an editor at one of the UK's early computer magazines. A year later he founded Future Publishing with a $25,000 bank loan. The new company initially focused on specialist computer publications but eventually expanded into other areas such as cycling, music, video games, technology and design, doubling in size every year for seven years. In 1994, Chris moved to the United States where he built Imagine Media, publisher of Business 2.0 magazine and creator of the popular video game users website IGN. Chris eventually merged Imagine and Future, taking the combined entity public in London in 1999, under the Future name. At its peak, it published 150 magazines and websites and employed 2,000 people.
This success allowed Chris to create a private nonprofit organization, the Sapling Foundation, with the hope of finding new ways to tackle tough global issues through media, technology, entrepreneurship and, most of all, ideas. In 2001, the foundation acquired the TED Conference, then an annual meeting of luminaries in the fields of Technology, Entertainment and Design held in Monterey, California, and Chris left Future to work full time on TED.
He expanded the conference's remit to cover all topics, including science, business and key global issues, while adding a Fellows program, which now has some 300 alumni, and the TED Prize, which grants its recipients "one wish to change the world." The TED stage has become a place for thinkers and doers from all fields to share their ideas and their work, capturing imaginations, sparking conversation and encouraging discovery along the way.
In 2006, TED experimented with posting some of its talks on the Internet. Their viral success encouraged Chris to begin positioning the organization as a global media initiative devoted to 'ideas worth spreading,' part of a new era of information dissemination using the power of online video. In June 2015, the organization posted its 2,000th talk online. The talks are free to view, and they have been translated into more than 100 languages with the help of volunteers from around the world. Viewership has grown to approximately one billion views per year.
Continuing a strategy of 'radical openness,' in 2009 Chris introduced the TEDx initiative, allowing free licenses to local organizers who wished to organize their own TED-like events. More than 8,000 such events have been held, generating an archive of 60,000 TEDx talks. And three years later, the TED-Ed program was launched, offering free educational videos and tools to students and teachers.
Chris Anderson | Speaker | TED.com