Nick Bostrom: How civilization could destroy itself -- and 4 ways we could prevent it
Nick Bostrom: Comment la civilisation pourrait s'autodétruire et quatre façons de l'éviter
Nick Bostrom asks big questions: What should we do, as individuals and as a species, to optimize our long-term prospects? Will humanity’s technological advancements ultimately destroy us? Full bioChris Anderson - TED Curator
After a long career in journalism and publishing, Chris Anderson became the curator of the TED Conference in 2002 and has developed it as a platform for identifying and disseminating ideas worth spreading. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
so many crazy ideas out there.
tant d'idées folles.
all be living in a simulation,
tous vivre dans une simulation
of how artificial general intelligence
les plus saisissants
générale artificielle
the vulnerable world hypothesis.
l'hypothèse du monde vulnérable.
give the illustrated guide to that.
un guide illustré à ce sujet.
C'est une tentative de réflexion
of the current human condition.
de la condition humaine actuelle.
possible technologies.
des technologies possibles.
of human creativity
de la créativité humaine
and pulling out one ball after another,
la main dans l'urne
has been hugely beneficial, right?
a été extrêmement bénéfique.
de nombreuses boules blanches,
dont les bienfaits sont mitigés.
mixed blessings.
pulled out the black ball --
sorti la boule noire --
the civilization that discovers it.
la civilisation qui la découvre.
about what could such a black ball be.
à ce qu'une balle noire pourrait être.
bring about civilizational destruction.
à la destruction de la civilisation.
the semi-anarchic default condition.
semi-anarchique par défaut.
un argumentaire convaincant
we've actually got lucky,
nous avons eu de la chance,
that death ball
la boule de la mort
it's just meant to illustrate
qu'elle est censée illustrer
des découvertes élémentaires.
cette capacité.
at pulling out balls,
dans l'extraction de boules
to put the ball back into the urn, right.
de remettre la boule dans l'urne.
mais nous ne pouvons pas désinventer.
no black ball in the urn.
de boule noire dans l'urne.
and you can't put it back in,
et vous ne pouvez pas la remettre,
of these examples.
de ces exemples.
types of vulnerability.
de vulnérabilités.
that just makes it very easy
la destruction massive très facile.
source of that kind of black ball,
une source féconde d'une telle boule,
que nous pourrions --
really great, right?
c'est génial, non ?
le réchauffement climatique
to get too easy either,
que ce soit trop simple
and his grandmother
et sa grand-mère
alter the earth's climate.
le climat terrestre.
killer bot swarms.
et produits en masse.
artificial general intelligence.
l'intelligence générale artificielle.
that when we discovered
que quand nous avons découvert
pouvait créer une bombe,
accessible to anyone.
d'accès pour quiconque.
some breakthroughs in nuclear physics,
en physique nucléaire,
to create a nuclear chain reaction
nucléaire en chaîne
that this could lead to the bomb.
mener à la bombe.
to make a nuclear bomb
pour une bombe nucléaire,
hautement enrichi,
massive amounts of energy.
massives d'énergie.
to unlock the energy of the atom.
de libérer l'énergie de l'atome.
in the microwave oven
dans un four micro-ondes
une détonation nucléaire.
a nuclear detonation.
physiquement impossible.
physically impossible.
how it would turn out?
comment cela allait tourner ?
que pour que la vie évolue sur Terre,
massive nuclear reactions relatively easy,
des réactions nucléaires massives
that is easy to do on purpose
facile à faire volontairement
on top of one another,
les uns sur les autres,
like, a stack of 10 blocks.
une pile de 10 cubes.
la majorité d'entre nous
is perhaps the quickest route
est peut-être le chemin le plus rapide
in our near future to get us here.
nous y mènera dans un avenir proche.
about what that would have meant
à ce que cela aurait signifié
in their kitchen for an afternoon
dans sa cuisine pendant un après-midi
modern civilization as we know it
la civilisation moderne actuelle
of a million people,
d'un million de personnes,
who would, for whatever reason,
qui, peu importe la raison,
ce pouvoir destructeur.
of vulnerability.
kind of obvious types of black balls
de balles noires évidents
to blow up a lot of things,
de faire exploser plein de choses,
by creating bad incentives
de mauvaises incitations
fassent des choses nuisibles.
that incentivizes great powers
qui invite les grandes puissances
to create destruction.
pour causer de la destruction.
very close to this, right?
en étaient très proches.
over 10 trillion dollars
plus de 10 billions de dollars
d'alerte instantanée.
during the Cold War
durant la Guerre froide,
this would be a great idea,
que ce serait une super idée
to blow ourselves up,
pour se faire sauter,
that we were finding ourselves --
que nous nous trouvions --
a safe first strike.
un premier coup assuré.
all their nuclear missiles.
tous les missiles nucléaires.
that the other side might do it.
que l'autre camp ne le fasse.
relativement stable.
more unstable than it was.
plus instable que cela.
d'autres propriétés technologiques.
other properties of technology.
to have arms treaties,
d'avoir des traités
or something less distinctive.
ou moins distinctive.
pour les acteurs puissants,
for powerful actors,
for all of us, in Type-2b here.
pour nous tous, le type 2b.
take the case of global warming.
du réchauffement climatique.
à faire des choses
have no significant effect, right?
n'ont pas d'effet significatif.
un effet préjudiciable.
could have been a lot worse than it is.
aurait pu être pire qu'il ne l'est.
sensitivity parameter, right.
de sensibilité climatique.
how much warmer does it get
qui indique le réchauffement
of greenhouse gases.
de gaz à effet de serre.
of greenhouse gases we emitted,
de gaz à effet de serre émis,
d'entre 3 et 4,5 degrés d'ici 2100,
15 degrees or 20 degrees.
in a very bad situation.
été très mauvaise.
had just been a lot harder to do.
aient été bien plus complexes.
more fossil fuels in the ground.
plus de carburants fossiles.
that if in that case of --
que dans ce cas de --
in the time period that we could see,
sur une période que nous pourrions voir,
off its ass and done something about it.
et y aurait fait quelque chose.
maybe that stupid.
mais peut-être pas autant.
to switch to renewables and stuff, right,
de passer aux énergies renouvelables,
with slightly different physics,
avec une physique légèrement différente,
to do these things.
de faire ces choses-là.
these possibilities together,
ces possibilités,
dans notre futur ?
well be various black balls in the urn,
diverses boules noires dans l'urne,
des boules dorées
protect against black balls.
à nous protéger des boules noires.
they will come out.
elles vont sortir.
philosophical critique of this idea
possible de cette idée,
that the future is essentially settled.
de l'avenir qui est globalement établie.
is that ball there or it's not.
soit elle ne l'est pas.
ce n'est pas une vision de l'avenir
that I want to believe.
that the future is undetermined,
est indéterminé,
aujourd'hui détermineront
we pull out of that urn.
nous sortons de l'urne.
pull out all the balls.
toutes les boules.
of weak form of technological determinism
de déterminisme technologique
to encounter a society
de rencontrer une société
et des avions à réaction.
of a technology as a set of affordances.
comme un ensemble de potentialités.
nous permettant de faire diverses choses
that enables us to do various things
of course depends on human choice.
dépend des choix humains.
three types of vulnerability,
à ces trois types de vulnérabilités,
about how we would choose to use them.
de comment nous choisirions de l'utiliser.
this massive, destructive power,
cet énorme pouvoir destructeur,
of millions of people
de millions de gens
to use it destructively.
de l'utiliser pour détruire.
disturbing argument
qui me perturbe le plus,
some kind of view into the urn
avoir un aperçu de l'urne
very likely that we're doomed.
que nous soyons condamnés.
in accelerating power,
la technologie accélère,
that make us more powerful,
nous rendant plus puissants,
can take us all down,
to use those powers,
d'utiliser ce pouvoir,
that kind of help us control
inventer des technologies
que les gens font de ce pouvoir.
let's talk about the response.
parlons de la réponse.
about all the possibilities
à toutes les possibilités
it's things like cyberwarfare,
ce sont les cyberguerres,
et ainsi de suite --
serious doom in our future.
sérieuse dans notre avenir.
four possible responses as well.
de quatre réponses possibles.
doesn't seem promising,
le développement technologique
to technological progress.
d'une interruption générale
even if we could do it.
des domaines très limités
slower technological progress.
ralentir les progrès technologiques.
faster progress in bioweapons,
plus rapides pour les armes biologiques
de bombes nucléaires.
fully on board with that.
complètement d'accord avec cela.
push back on that for a minute.
pour contre-argumenter.
of the last couple of decades,
des dernières décennies,
push forward at full speed,
vers l'avant à pleine vitesse,
and the rapid acceleration of that,
et son accélération rapide,
"move fast and break things"
d' « avancer vite et casser des trucs »
for synthetic biology,
de la biologie synthétique,
move forward rapidly
avancer rapidement
a DNA printer in every home
une imprimante d'ADN à la maison
the first part, the not feasible.
l'infaisabilité.
desirable to stop it,
désirable d'arrêter,
if one nation kind of --
if one nation does,
the nuclear threat,
à la menace nucléaire,
douloureux des négociations.
the painful process of negotiating.
that we, as a matter of global priority,
que nous, en termes de priorité mondiale,
really strict rules
des règles très strictes
de recherches biologiques.
that you want to democratize, no?
que vous voulez démocratiser, si ?
has their own device,
chaque labo a son appareil,
four or five places in the world
quatre ou cinq endroits au monde
and the DNA comes back, right?
un modèle numérique
like it was necessary,
vraiment nécessaire,
a finite set of choke points.
de goulots d'étranglement.
for kind of special opportunities,
des opportunités particulières
un contrôle plus strict.
in just holding back.
à contenir les choses.
North Korea, you know --
en Corée du Nord --
and discover this knowledge,
et découvrir ce savoir,
dans les conditions actuelles.
under current conditions.
new change in the world
de changement profond et nouveau
another possible response.
une autre réponse possible.
has only limited potential.
a un potentiel limité.
of people who are incentivized
de personnes qui sont motivées
l'accès et les moyens,
access and the means,
flying around the world
volant à travers le monde
showing signs of sociopathic behavior,
présentant un comportement sociopathe,
like, incarcerate or kill,
soit incarcérer ou tuer,
to a better view of the world.
une meilleure vision du monde.
extremely successful in this,
of such individuals by half.
de tels individus de moitié.
all other powerful forces
toutes les grandes forces
le système éducatif.
would be reduced by half.
humanity's future on response two.
que l'on parie l'avenir de l'humanité
to try to deter and persuade people,
de dissuader et persuader les gens,
as our only safeguard.
comme seul dispositif de sécurité.
the ability to stabilize the world
à la capacité de stabiliser le monde
of possible vulnerabilities.
des vulnérabilités possibles.
this dangerous thing,
cette chose dangereuse,
in real time, and stop them.
en temps réel et l'arrêter.
ubiquitous surveillance,
une surveillance omniprésente,
constamment surveillé.
essentially, a form of.
une forme de « Minority Report ».
that were reviewing this, etc., etc.
qui examineraient cela, et ainsi de suite.
is not a very popular term right now?
n'est pas très populaire en ce moment.
that you would have to wear at all times
que vous devriez porter tout le temps,
or something like that.
de la liberté » ou autre.
such a mind-blowing conversation.
une conversation si époustouflante.
a whole big conversation on this
à ce sujet-là en particulier.
with that, right?
et risques avec cela.
comble un autre vide dans la gouvernance.
another governance gap.
governance gap at the microlevel,
dans la gouvernance à un niveau micro :
from ever doing something highly illegal.
quoi que ce soit de hautement illégal.
governance gap
dans la gouvernance
of global coordination failures,
d'échecs de coordination mondiale,
entre les grandes puissances,
the Type-2a vulnerabilities.
aux vulnérabilités de type 2a.
of fashion right now,
à la mode actuellement,
that throughout history,
qu'au cours de l'histoire,
of technological power increase,
du pouvoir technologique,
and sort of centralized the power.
et ont centralisé le pouvoir.
when a roving band of criminals
de criminels itinérants
well, you have a nation-state
a police force or an army,
policière ou militaire,
a single person or a single group
ou un seul groupe
we're going to have to go this route,
nous devrons emprunter ce chemin,
of political organization has increased
de l'organisation politique a augmenté
des cité-États, des nations,
and so on and so forth.
internationales et ainsi de suite.
d'énormes inconvénients
and to global governance.
et la gouvernance mondiale.
that if we are lucky,
que si nous sommes chanceux,
que ce seraient les seules façons
that these would be the only ways
we can't have it all.
que nous ne pouvons pas tout avoir.
that many of us had
que nombre d'entre nous avaient
going to be a force for good,
une force du bien,
go as fast as you can
aller aussi vite que possible
to some of the consequences,
à certaines conséquences,
very uncomfortable things with it,
avec nous-mêmes :
arms race with ourselves
you better limit it,
vous devriez le confiner,
it's in a sense the easiest option
dans un sens la plus simple
vulnerable to extracting a black ball.
à l'extraction d'une boule noire.
macrogovernance problem,
de macro gouvernance
all the balls from the urn
toutes les boules de l'urne
in a simulation, does it matter?
cela importe-t-il ?
how likely is it that we're doomed?
d'être condamnés ?
when you ask that question.
à cette question.
just with the time line,
juste d'un point de vue de l'échéance,
and all kinds of things, right?
so that you can attach a probability,
probably you'll die of natural causes,
vous mourrez de causes naturelles.
you might have a 100-year --
vous avez 100 ans peut-être,
on who you ask.
as civilizational devastation?
comme un dévaste civilisationnel ?
an existential catastrophe
d'une catastrophe civilisationnelle
you say the threshold is,
put me down as a frightened optimist.
un optimiste effrayé.
a large number of other frightened ...
d'autres personnes effrayées.
the living daylights out of us.
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Nick Bostrom - PhilosopherNick Bostrom asks big questions: What should we do, as individuals and as a species, to optimize our long-term prospects? Will humanity’s technological advancements ultimately destroy us?
Why you should listen
Philosopher Nick Bostrom envisioned a future full of human enhancement, nanotechnology and machine intelligence long before they became mainstream concerns. From his famous simulation argument -- which identified some striking implications of rejecting the Matrix-like idea that humans are living in a computer simulation -- to his work on existential risk, Bostrom approaches both the inevitable and the speculative using the tools of philosophy, probability theory, and scientific analysis.
Since 2005, Bostrom has led the Future of Humanity Institute, a research group of mathematicians, philosophers and scientists at Oxford University tasked with investigating the big picture for the human condition and its future. He has been referred to as one of the most important thinkers of our age.
Nick was honored as one of Foreign Policy's 2015 Global Thinkers .
His recent book Superintelligence advances the ominous idea that “the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make.”
Nick Bostrom | Speaker | TED.com
Chris Anderson - TED Curator
After a long career in journalism and publishing, Chris Anderson became the curator of the TED Conference in 2002 and has developed it as a platform for identifying and disseminating ideas worth spreading.
Why you should listen
Chris Anderson is the Curator of TED, a nonprofit devoted to sharing valuable ideas, primarily through the medium of 'TED Talks' -- short talks that are offered free online to a global audience.
Chris was born in a remote village in Pakistan in 1957. He spent his early years in India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, where his parents worked as medical missionaries, and he attended an American school in the Himalayas for his early education. After boarding school in Bath, England, he went on to Oxford University, graduating in 1978 with a degree in philosophy, politics and economics.
Chris then trained as a journalist, working in newspapers and radio, including two years producing a world news service in the Seychelles Islands.
Back in the UK in 1984, Chris was captivated by the personal computer revolution and became an editor at one of the UK's early computer magazines. A year later he founded Future Publishing with a $25,000 bank loan. The new company initially focused on specialist computer publications but eventually expanded into other areas such as cycling, music, video games, technology and design, doubling in size every year for seven years. In 1994, Chris moved to the United States where he built Imagine Media, publisher of Business 2.0 magazine and creator of the popular video game users website IGN. Chris eventually merged Imagine and Future, taking the combined entity public in London in 1999, under the Future name. At its peak, it published 150 magazines and websites and employed 2,000 people.
This success allowed Chris to create a private nonprofit organization, the Sapling Foundation, with the hope of finding new ways to tackle tough global issues through media, technology, entrepreneurship and, most of all, ideas. In 2001, the foundation acquired the TED Conference, then an annual meeting of luminaries in the fields of Technology, Entertainment and Design held in Monterey, California, and Chris left Future to work full time on TED.
He expanded the conference's remit to cover all topics, including science, business and key global issues, while adding a Fellows program, which now has some 300 alumni, and the TED Prize, which grants its recipients "one wish to change the world." The TED stage has become a place for thinkers and doers from all fields to share their ideas and their work, capturing imaginations, sparking conversation and encouraging discovery along the way.
In 2006, TED experimented with posting some of its talks on the Internet. Their viral success encouraged Chris to begin positioning the organization as a global media initiative devoted to 'ideas worth spreading,' part of a new era of information dissemination using the power of online video. In June 2015, the organization posted its 2,000th talk online. The talks are free to view, and they have been translated into more than 100 languages with the help of volunteers from around the world. Viewership has grown to approximately one billion views per year.
Continuing a strategy of 'radical openness,' in 2009 Chris introduced the TEDx initiative, allowing free licenses to local organizers who wished to organize their own TED-like events. More than 8,000 such events have been held, generating an archive of 60,000 TEDx talks. And three years later, the TED-Ed program was launched, offering free educational videos and tools to students and teachers.
Chris Anderson | Speaker | TED.com