TED2012
James Hansen: Why I must speak out about climate change
James Hansen: Zašto moram govoriti o klimatskim promjenama
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Vrhunski klimatolog James Hansen priča o svojoj uključenosti u znanost o ovoj temi i raspravlja o globalnim klimatskim promjenama. Pri tom prikazuje nadmoćan dokaz da se promjene događaju i zašto je zbog toga vrlo zabrinut za budućnost.
James Hansen - Climatologist
James Hansen has made key insights into our global climate -- and inspired a generation of activists and scientists. Full bio
James Hansen has made key insights into our global climate -- and inspired a generation of activists and scientists. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
What do I know
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Što ja to znam
00:17
that would cause me,
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što bi izazvalo da mene,
00:19
a reticent, Midwestern scientist,
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povučenog, srednjozapadnog znanstvenika
00:21
to get myself arrested
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uhite
00:24
in front of the White House protesting?
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zbog prosvjeda ispred Bijele kuće?
00:27
And what would you do
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I što biste vi učinili
00:29
if you knew what I know?
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da znate ono što ja znam?
00:31
Let's start with how I got to this point.
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Započnimo s time kako sam došao do ove točke.
00:35
I was lucky to grow up
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Imao sam sreće što sam odrastao
00:37
at a time when it was not difficult
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u vrijeme kada za
00:40
for the child of a tenant farmer
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dijete farmera nije bilo teško
00:42
to make his way to the state university.
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otići na državno sveučilište.
00:44
And I was really lucky
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I zaista sam imao sreće
00:47
to go to the University of Iowa
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što sam išao na Sveučilište u Iowi
00:49
where I could study under Professor James Van Allen
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gdje sam mogao učiti od profesora Jamesa Van Allena
00:52
who built instruments
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koji je napravio alat
00:54
for the first U.S. satellites.
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za prve američke satelite.
00:56
Professor Van Allen told me
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Profesor Van Allen govorio mi je
00:59
about observations of Venus,
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o promatranjima Venere,
01:02
that there was intense microwave radiation.
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o tome kako tamo postoji jako mikrovalno zračenje.
01:04
Did it mean that Venus had an ionosphere?
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Je li to značilo da Venera ima ionosferu?
01:07
Or was Venus extremely hot?
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Ili je Venera iznimno vruća?
01:09
The right answer,
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Točan odgovor,
01:11
confirmed by the Soviet Venera spacecraft,
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potvrđen od strane svemirske letjelice sovjetska Venera
01:16
was that Venus was very hot --
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jest da je Venera vrlo vruća –
01:19
900 degrees Fahrenheit.
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480°C.
01:21
And it was kept hot
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A vrućom je održava
01:23
by a thick carbon dioxide atmosphere.
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tanka atmosfera ugljičnog dioksida.
01:26
I was fortunate to join NASA
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Imao sam sreću pridružiti se NASA-i
01:28
and successfully propose
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i uspješno predložiti
01:30
an experiment to fly to Venus.
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eksperiment leta na Veneru.
01:32
Our instrument took this image
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Naši su aparati snimili ovu sliku
01:35
of the veil of Venus,
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vea oko Venere,
01:37
which turned out to be
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za što se ispostavilo
01:39
a smog of sulfuric acid.
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da je smog sumporne kiseline.
01:42
But while our instrument was being built,
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Ali dok su naši aparati bili u izradi,
01:45
I became involved in calculations
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uključen sam u kalkulacije
01:47
of the greenhouse effect
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o efektu staklenika
01:49
here on Earth,
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ovdje na Zemlji
01:51
because we realized
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jer smo shvatili
01:53
that our atmospheric composition was changing.
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da se naš atmosferski sastav mijenja.
01:56
Eventually, I resigned
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S vremenom sam dao ostavku
01:58
as principal investigator
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na mjestu glavnog istraživača
02:00
on our Venus experiment
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na eksperimentu Venera
02:02
because a planet changing before our eyes
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jer je planet koji nam se mijenja pred očima
02:05
is more interesting and important.
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zanimljiviji i važniji.
02:07
Its changes will affect all of humanity.
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Te će promjene utjecati na cijeli ljudski rod.
02:10
The greenhouse effect had been well understood
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Efekt staklenika vrlo je dobro poznat
02:12
for more than a century.
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već više od stoljeća.
02:14
British physicist John Tyndall,
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Britanski fizičar John Tyndall,
02:16
in the 1850's,
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je 1850-ih,
02:18
made laboratory measurements
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napravio laboratorijska mjerenja
02:20
of the infrared radiation,
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infracrvenog zračenja,
02:22
which is heat.
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što je zapravo toplina.
02:24
And he showed that gasses such as CO2 absorb heat,
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I pokazao je da plinovi poput CO2 apsorbiraju toplinu
02:27
thus acting like a blanket
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te se tako ponašaju poput deke
02:30
warming Earth's surface.
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grijući površinu Zemlje.
02:32
I worked with other scientists
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Radio sam s drugim znanstvenicima
02:34
to analyze Earth climate observations.
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kako bih analizirao zapažanja u vezi Zemljine klime.
02:38
In 1981,
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1981.
02:40
we published an article in Science magazine
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objavili smo članak u časopisu Znanost
02:43
concluding that observed warming
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zaključujući da je opaženo zagrijavanje
02:45
of 0.4 degrees Celsius
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od 0.4°C
02:47
in the prior century
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u prošlom stoljeću,
02:49
was consistent with the greenhouse effect
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u skladu s efektom staklenika
02:51
of increasing CO2.
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i povećavanjem CO2.
02:53
That Earth would likely warm in the 1980's,
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Ta Zemlja bi se vjerojatno zagrijala 1980-ih,
02:56
and warming would exceed
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a zagrijavanje bi prekoračilo
02:58
the noise level of random weather
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razinu graje o nasumičnom vremenu
03:00
by the end of the century.
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do kraja stoljeća.
03:02
We also said that the 21st century
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Također smo rekli kako će se u 21. stoljeću
03:05
would see shifting climate zones,
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vidjeti pomicanje klimatskih zona,
03:07
creation of drought-prone regions
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stvaranje suši sklonih regija
03:09
in North America and Asia,
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u Sjevernoj Americi i Aziji,
03:11
erosion of ice sheets, rising sea levels
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erozija ledenih ploča, povisivanje razina mora
03:14
and opening of the fabled Northwest Passage.
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i otvaranje slavnog Sjeverozapadnog prolaza.
03:17
All of these impacts
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Svi su se ovi udari
03:19
have since either happened
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ili dogodili
03:21
or are now well under way.
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ili se upravo događaju.
03:23
That paper was reported on the front page of the New York Times
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Članak je bio na naslovnici New York Timesa
03:27
and led to me testifying to Congress
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i doveo me do svjedočenja Kongresu
03:29
in the 1980's,
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1980.,
03:31
testimony in which I emphasized
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svjedočenja u kojem sam naglasio
03:34
that global warming increases both extremes
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da globalno zagrijavanje povećava oba ekstrema
03:37
of the Earth's water cycle.
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u Zemljinom vodenom ciklusu.
03:40
Heatwaves and droughts on one hand,
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Toplinski valovi i suše s jedne strane,
03:42
directly from the warming,
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izravno od zagrijavanja,
03:44
but also, because a warmer atmosphere
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ali također, zbog toplije atmosfere
03:46
holds more water vapor
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sadrži više vodenih para
03:48
with its latent energy,
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unutar svoje skrivene energije
03:50
rainfall will become
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i oborine će se događati
03:52
in more extreme events.
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u sve ekstremnijim uvjetima.
03:54
There will be stronger storms and greater flooding.
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Bit će snažnijih oluja i većih poplava.
03:57
Global warming hoopla
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Globalno zagrijavanje
04:00
became time-consuming
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postalo je strašno dugotrajno
04:02
and distracted me from doing science --
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i odvratilo me od znanosti –
04:04
partly because I had complained
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djelomično zato što sam se žalio
04:06
that the White House altered my testimony.
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da mi je Bijela kuća izmijenila svjedočenje.
04:09
So I decided to go back
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Stoga sam se odlučio vratiti
04:11
to strictly doing science
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isključivo znanosti
04:13
and leave the communication to others.
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i ostaviti komunikaciju drugima.
04:17
By 15 years later,
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15 godina kasnije,
04:20
evidence of global warming was much stronger.
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dokaz globalnog zagrijavanja bio je mnogo veći.
04:23
Most of the things mentioned in our 1981 paper
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Većina stvari spomenutih u članku iz 1981.
04:26
were facts.
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bile su činjenice.
04:28
I had the privilege to speak twice
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Imao sam privilegiju dva puta govoriti
04:31
to the president's climate task force.
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pred predsjednikovom klimatskom operativnom grupom.
04:33
But energy policies continued to focus
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Ali energetska se politika nastavila fokusirati
04:36
on finding more fossil fuels.
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na pronalazak još više fosilnih goriva.
04:39
By then we had two grandchildren,
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Do tada smo imali dvoje unučadi,
04:42
Sophie and Connor.
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Sophie i Connora.
04:44
I decided
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Odlučio sam
04:46
that I did not want them in the future
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da ne želim da oni u budućnosti
04:48
to say, "Opa understood what was happening,
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kažu, „Djed je razumio što se događa,
04:50
but he didn't make it clear."
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ali nije to pojasnio.“
04:52
So I decided to give a public talk
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Stoga sam odlučio održati javni govor
04:55
criticizing the lack of an appropriate energy policy.
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kritizirajući nedostatak odgovarajuće energetske politike.
04:58
I gave the talk at the University of Iowa in 2004
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Održao sam govor na Sveučilištu u Iowi 2004.
05:01
and at the 2005 meeting
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i 2005. na susretu
05:04
of the American Geophysical Union.
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Američke geofizičke unije.
05:07
This led to calls
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To je dovelo do poziva
05:09
from the White House to NASA headquarters
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Bijele kuće do NASA-inih sjedišta
05:11
and I was told that I could not give any talks or speak with the media
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i rečeno mi je da više ne mogu držati nikakve govore ili komunicirati s medijima
05:14
without prior explicit approval
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bez izričitog odobrenja
05:17
by NASA headquarters.
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iz NASA-inog sjedišta.
05:20
After I informed the New York Times
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Nakon što sam informirao New York Times
05:22
about these restrictions,
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o ovim ograničenjima,
05:24
NASA was forced to end the censorship.
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NASA je bila prisiljena završiti s cenzurom.
05:27
But there were consequences.
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Ali postojale su posljedice.
05:29
I had been using the first line
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Koristio sam prvu rečenicu
05:31
of the NASA mission statement,
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iz NASA-ine predstavničke izjave,
05:33
"To understand and protect the home planet,"
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„Razumijevati i štititi planet“,
05:36
to justify my talks.
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kako bih opravdao svoje govore.
05:38
Soon the first line of the mission statement
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Uskoro je prva rečenica predstavničke izjave
05:40
was deleted, never to appear again.
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izbrisana i nikada se više nije pojavila.
05:44
Over the next few years
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Sljedećih nekoliko godina
05:46
I was drawn more and more
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sve sam više i više bio privučen
05:48
into trying to communicate the urgency
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pokušavanjem kako bih prenio hitnost
05:51
of a change in energy policies,
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promjena u energetsku politiku
05:54
while still researching the physics of climate change.
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dok sam još uvijek istraživao fiziku klimatskih promjena.
05:57
Let me describe the most important conclusion from the physics --
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Da vam opišem najvažniji zaključak iz fizike –
06:00
first, from Earth's energy balance
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prvo, iz Zemljinog energetskog balansa
06:03
and, second, from Earth's climate history.
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i drugo iz Zemljine klimatske povijesti.
06:07
Adding CO2 to the air
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Dodavanje CO2 zraku
06:09
is like throwing another blanket on the bed.
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je poput bacanja još jedne deke na krevet.
06:12
It reduces Earth's heat radiation to space,
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Smanjuje Zemljino zračenje topline u svemir
06:15
so there's a temporary energy imbalance.
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pa tu postoji privremeni energetski disbalans.
06:18
More energy is coming in
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Više energije ulazi
06:20
than going out,
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no što izlazi
06:22
until Earth warms up enough
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sve dok se Zemlja ponovno dovoljno ne zagrije
06:24
to again radiate to space
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kako bi zračila u svemir
06:26
as much energy as it absorbs from the Sun.
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onoliko energije koliko apsorbira iz Sunca.
06:28
So the key quantity
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Dakle, ključna količina
06:30
is Earth's energy imbalance.
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je Zemljin energetski disbalans.
06:33
Is there more energy coming in
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Ulazi li više energije
06:35
than going out?
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no što izlazi?
06:37
If so, more warming is in the pipeline.
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Ako je tako, čeka nas još zagrijavanja.
06:40
It will occur without adding any more greenhouse gasses.
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Pojavit će se bez dodavanja dodatnih stakleničkih plinova.
06:44
Now finally,
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Sada konačno
06:46
we can measure Earth's energy imbalance precisely
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možemo izmjeriti Zemljin energetski disbalans točno
06:50
by measuring the heat content
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mjereći toplinski sadržaj
06:52
in Earth's heat reservoirs.
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u Zemljinim toplinskim rezervoarima.
06:55
The biggest reservoir, the ocean, was the least well measured,
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Najveći rezervoar, ocean, najslabije je izmjeren
06:58
until more than 3,000 Argo floats
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sve dok više od 3.000 Argo plovaka
07:01
were distributed around the world's ocean.
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nije bilo raspodijeljeno po svjetskim oceanima.
07:04
These floats reveal
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Ti plovci otkrivaju
07:06
that the upper half of the ocean
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da gornja polovica oceana
07:08
is gaining heat at a substantial rate.
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dobiva toplinu sa značajnom stopom.
07:11
The deep ocean is also gaining heat at a smaller rate,
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Duboki ocean također dobiva toplinu s manjom stopom,
07:14
and energy is going
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a energija ide
07:16
into the net melting of ice all around the planet.
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u mrežu otopljenog leda širom cijelog planeta.
07:19
And the land, to depths of tens of meters,
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A tlo se do dubine od deset metara
07:22
is also warming.
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također zagrijava.
07:24
The total energy imbalance now
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Sada je ukupan energetski disbalans
07:27
is about six-tenths of a watt per square meter.
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oko šest stotinki vata po kvadratnom metru.
07:31
That may not sound like much,
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To možda ne zvuči puno,
07:33
but when added up over the whole world, it's enormous.
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ali kad se zbroji po cijelom svijetu, ogromno je.
07:36
It's about 20 times greater
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To je oko 20 puta veće
07:39
than the rate of energy use by all of humanity.
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od stope energije koju koristi cijelo čovječanstvo.
07:42
It's equivalent to exploding
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Jednako je eksploziji
07:44
400,000 Hiroshima atomic bombs per day
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400.000 atomskih bombi iz Hirošime po danu,
07:50
365 days per year.
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365 dana u godini.
07:53
That's how much extra energy
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Toliko dodatne energije
07:55
Earth is gaining each day.
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Zemlja dobije svaki dan.
07:57
This imbalance,
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Ovaj disbalans,
07:59
if we want to stabilize climate,
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ako želimo stabilizirati klimu
08:02
means that we must reduce CO2
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znači da moramo smanjiti CO2
08:04
from 391 ppm, parts per million,
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s 391 ppm, (parts per million - čestica po milijunu),
08:07
back to 350 ppm.
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na 350 ppm.
08:10
That is the change needed to restore energy balance
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To je promjena potrebna za vraćanje energetskog balansa
08:13
and prevent further warming.
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i sprječavanja daljnjeg zagrijavanja.
08:15
Climate change deniers argue
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Oni koji negiraju klimatske promjene prepiru se
08:18
that the Sun is the main cause of climate change.
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o tome kako je Sunce glavni uzrok klimatskih promjena.
08:21
But the measured energy imbalance occurred
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Ali izmjeren energetski disbalans pojavio se
08:24
during the deepest solar minimum in the record,
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tijekom najdubljeg solarnog minimuma, zabilježenog,
08:28
when the Sun's energy reaching Earth was least.
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kada je Sunčeva energija koja dopire do Zemlje najmanja.
08:32
Yet, there was more energy coming in than going out.
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Ipak je više energije ulazilo nego izlazilo.
08:35
This shows that the effect of the Sun's variations on climate
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To pokazuje kako je efekt Sunčevih varijacija na našu klimu
08:38
is overwhelmed by the increasing greenhouse gasses,
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preplavljen povećanim stakleničkim plinovima,
08:41
mainly from burning fossil fuels.
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uglavnom zbog sagorijevanja fosilnih goriva.
08:44
Now consider Earth's climate history.
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Uzmite u obzir Zemljinu klimatsku povijest.
08:47
These curves for global temperature,
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Ove krivine za globalnu temperaturu,
08:49
atmospheric CO2 and sea level
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atmosferski CO2 i razina mora
08:52
were derived from ocean cores and Antarctic ice cores,
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izvedene su iz srži oceana i srži antarktičkog leda,
08:55
from ocean sediments and snowflakes
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iz oceanskih taloga i snježnih pahuljica
08:57
that piled up year after year
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koje su se nagomilavale godinu za godinom
09:00
over 800,000 years
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više od 800.000 godina
09:02
forming a two-mile thick ice sheet.
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stvarajući preko tri kilometra debelu ledenu ploču.
09:04
As you see, there's a high correlation
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Kao što vidite, postoji velika korelacija
09:07
between temperature, CO2 and sea level.
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između temperature, CO2 i razine mora.
09:10
Careful examination shows
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Pažljiva ispitivanja pokazuju
09:12
that the temperature changes
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kako promjene temperature
09:14
slightly lead the CO2 changes
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polagano vode promjenama CO2
09:16
by a few centuries.
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već nekoliko stoljeća.
09:19
Climate change deniers like to use this fact
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Oni koji negiraju klimatske promjene vole koristiti ovu činjenicu
09:22
to confuse and trick the public
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kako bi zbunili i prevarili publiku
09:25
by saying, "Look, the temperature causes CO2 to change,
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govoreći, „Gledajte, temperatura uzrokuje promjenu CO2,
09:28
not vice versa."
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a ne obrnuto.“
09:30
But that lag
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Ali taj je vremenski pomak
09:32
is exactly what is expected.
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upravo ono što je očekivano.
09:35
Small changes in Earth's orbit
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Malene promjene u Zemljinoj orbiti
09:38
that occur over tens to hundreds of thousands of years
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koje se događaju u više od deset do sto i tisuću godina
09:41
alter the distribution
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mijenjaju raspodjelu
09:43
of sunlight on Earth.
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Sunčeve svjetlosti na Zemlji.
09:45
When there is more sunlight
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Kada imamo više Sunčeve svjetlosti
09:47
at high latitudes in summer, ice sheets melt.
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na visokim geografskim širinama ljeti, ledene se ploče tope.
09:50
Shrinking ice sheets
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Skupljanje ledenih ploča
09:52
make the planet darker,
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čini planet tamnijim
09:54
so it absorbs more sunlight
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pa on apsorbira više sunčeve svjetlosti
09:56
and becomes warmer.
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i postaje topliji.
09:58
A warmer ocean releases CO2,
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Topliji ocean otpušta CO2
10:00
just as a warm Coca-Cola does.
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kao što to čini i topla Coca-Cola.
10:03
And more CO2 causes more warming.
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A više CO2 uzrokuje više zagrijavanja.
10:06
So CO2, methane, and ice sheets
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Dakle, CO2, metan i ledene ploče
10:09
were feedbacks
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bili su povratne informacije
10:11
that amplified global temperature change
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koje su pojačale globalnu promjenu temperature
10:14
causing these ancient climate oscillations to be huge,
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uzrokujući te ogromne drevne klimatske oscilacije,
10:17
even though the climate change was initiated
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iako su klimatske promjene započete
10:20
by a very weak forcing.
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s vrlo slabim silama.
10:22
The important point
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Važna stvar
10:24
is that these same amplifying feedbacks
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je da će se te iste pojačane povratne informacije
10:26
will occur today.
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pojaviti danas.
10:28
The physics does not change.
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Fizika se ne mijenja.
10:30
As Earth warms,
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Kako se Zemlja zagrijava,
10:32
now because of extra CO2 we put in the atmosphere,
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sada zbog dodatnog CO2 koji ubacujemo u atmosferu,
10:35
ice will melt,
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led će se topiti
10:37
and CO2 and methane will be released
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i CO2 i metan će se oslobađati
10:39
by warming ocean and melting permafrost.
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zagrijavanjem oceana i topljenjem vječnog leda.
10:42
While we can't say exactly how fast
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Dok točno ne možemo reći koliko će se brzo
10:45
these amplifying feedbacks will occur,
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te pojačane povratne informacije događati,
10:48
it is certain they will occur,
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sigurno je da će se događati
10:51
unless we stop the warming.
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ako ne zaustavimo zagrijavanje.
10:53
There is evidence
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Ovdje je dokaz
10:55
that feedbacks are already beginning.
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da povratne informacije već počinju.
10:58
Precise measurements
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Precizna mjerenja
11:00
by GRACE, the gravity satellite,
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pomoću GRACE, gravitacijskog satelita
11:02
reveal that both Greenland and Antarctica
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otkrivaju da i Grenland i Antarktika
11:05
are now losing mass,
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sada gube masu,
11:07
several hundred cubic kilometers per year.
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nekoliko kubičnih kilometara na godinu.
11:10
And the rate has accelerated
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A stopa se ubrzala
11:12
since the measurements began
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otkada su mjerenja počela
11:14
nine years ago.
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prije devet godina.
11:16
Methane is also beginning
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Metan je također počeo
11:18
to escape from the permafrost.
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bježati iz područja vječnog leda.
11:21
What sea level rise
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Kakvom se porastu morske razine
11:23
can we look forward to?
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možemo nadati?
11:25
The last time CO2 was 390 ppm,
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Zadnji je puta CO2 bio 390 ppm,
11:28
today's value,
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današnja vrijednost,
11:30
sea level was higher
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morska razina bila je viša
11:32
by at least 15 meters, 50 feet.
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za barem 15 metara, 50 stopa.
11:35
Where you are sitting now
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Ovo gdje sada sjedite
11:37
would be under water.
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bilo bi pod vodom.
11:39
Most estimates are that, this century,
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Većina procjena je da će ovo stoljeće
11:42
we will get at least one meter.
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dobiti barem jedan metar.
11:44
I think it will be more
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Mislim da će biti i više,
11:46
if we keep burning fossil fuels,
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ako nastavimo sagorijevati fosilna goriva,
11:48
perhaps even five meters, which is 18 feet,
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možda čak i pet metara što je 18 stopa
11:51
this century or shortly thereafter.
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ovo stoljeće ili ubrzo nakon njega.
11:54
The important point
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Važna je stvar
11:56
is that we will have started a process
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da ćemo započeti proces
11:59
that is out of humanity's control.
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koji je van ljudske kontrole.
12:02
Ice sheets would continue to disintegrate for centuries.
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Ledene će se ploče nastaviti raspadati stoljećima.
12:05
There would be no stable shoreline.
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Neće biti stabilnih obala.
12:07
The economic consequences are almost unthinkable.
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Ekonomske posljedice gotovo su nezamislive.
12:10
Hundreds of New Orleans-like devastations
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Stotine pustoši poput New Orleansa
12:14
around the world.
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širom svijeta.
12:16
What may be more reprehensible,
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Ono što će biti još veće upozorenje je,
12:18
if climate denial continues,
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ako se negiranje klimatskih promjena nastavi,
12:20
is extermination of species.
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istrebljenje vrsta.
12:22
The monarch butterfly
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Monarch leptiri
12:24
could be one of the 20 to 50 percent of all species
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mogli bi biti jedna od 20 do 50% svih vrsta
12:29
that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates
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koje će Međuvladina komisija za klimatske promjene
12:32
will be ticketed for extinction
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označiti kao izumrle
12:34
by the end of the century
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do kraja stoljeća
12:36
if we stay on business-as-usual fossil fuel use.
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ako nastavimo sa standardnom upotrebom fosilnih goriva.
12:40
Global warming is already affecting people.
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Globalno zagrijavanje već utječe na ljude.
12:43
The Texas, Oklahoma, Mexico
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Toplinski val i suša
12:45
heatwave and drought last year,
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u Teksasu, Oklahomi i Meksiku prošle godine,
12:48
Moscow the year before
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Moskva godinu prije toga
12:50
and Europe in 2003,
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i Europa 2003.,
12:52
were all exceptional events,
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sve su to bili izuzetni događaji
12:55
more than three standard deviations outside the norm.
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s više od tri standardne devijacije van norme.
12:59
Fifty years ago,
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Prije pedeset godina
13:01
such anomalies
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takve su nenormalnosti
13:03
covered only two- to three-tenths
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pokrivale samo dvije do tri desetine
13:05
of one percent of the land area.
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na jednom postotku zemljišta.
13:07
In recent years,
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Nedavnih godina,
13:09
because of global warming,
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zbog globalnog zagrijavanja,
13:11
they now cover about 10 percent --
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one sada pokrivaju oko 10 posto –
13:13
an increase by a factor of 25 to 50.
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porast prema čimbeniku od 25 do 50.
13:16
So we can say with a high degree of confidence
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Možemo reći s velikom dozom pouzdanosti
13:19
that the severe Texas and Moscow heatwaves
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da nekoliko toplinskih valova u Teksasu i Moskvi
13:21
were not natural;
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nisu bili prirodni;
13:23
they were caused by global warming.
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bili su uzrokovani globalnim zagrijavanjem.
13:26
An important impact,
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Važan će utjecaj,
13:28
if global warming continues,
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ako se globalno zagrijavanje nastavi,
13:30
will be on the breadbasket of our nation and the world,
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biti na žitnicama naše zemlje i svijeta,
13:33
the Midwest and Great Plains,
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Srednjozapadne i Velike ravnice
13:35
which are expected to become prone to extreme droughts,
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za koje se očekuje da će postati sklone ekstremnim sušama,
13:38
worse than the Dust Bowl,
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gorim od oluja prašine,
13:40
within just a few decades,
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unutar samo nekoliko desetljeća,
13:42
if we let global warming continue.
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ako se globalno zagrijavanje nastavi.
13:46
How did I get dragged deeper and deeper
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Kako sam uvučen sve dublje i dublje
13:49
into an attempt to communicate,
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u pokušaj komunikacije,
13:51
giving talks in 10 countries, getting arrested,
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držeći govore u 10 zemalja, bivajući uhićen,
13:54
burning up the vacation time
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trošeći vrijeme za godišnji odmor
13:56
that I had accumulated over 30 years?
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koji sam skupljao više od 30 godina?
14:00
More grandchildren helped me along.
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Još unučadi mi je pomoglo putem.
14:03
Jake is a super-positive,
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Jake je super-pozitivan,
14:05
enthusiastic boy.
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entuzijastičan dječak.
14:08
Here at age two and a half years,
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Ovdje s dvije i pol godine
14:10
he thinks he can protect
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misli kako može zaštititi
14:12
his two and a half-day-old little sister.
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svoju dva i pol dana staru malu sestru.
14:15
It would be immoral
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Bilo bi nemoralno
14:17
to leave these young people
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ostaviti ovo dvoje ljudi
14:19
with a climate system
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s klimatskim sustavom
14:21
spiraling out of control.
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koji izmiče kontroli.
14:23
Now the tragedy about climate change
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Tragedija što se tiče klimatskih promjena
14:26
is that we can solve it
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je da je možemo riješiti
14:28
with a simple, honest approach
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jednostavnim, iskrenim pristupom
14:30
of a gradually rising carbon fee
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postupnog porasta pristojbe za ugljik
14:33
collected from fossil fuel companies
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koja je skupljena iz naftnih kompanija
14:35
and distributed 100 percent electronically
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i distribuirati 100% elektronički
14:39
every month to all legal residents
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svaki mjesec svim zakonitim stanovnicima,
14:41
on a per capita basis,
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po glavi stanovnika
14:43
with the government not keeping one dime.
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s vladom koja ne zadržava ni jedan novčić.
14:47
Most people would get more in the monthly dividend
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Većina ljudi dobila bi više u mjesečnoj dividendi
14:50
than they'd pay in increased prices.
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no što bi platili povećane cijene.
14:52
This fee and dividend
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Ova pristojba i dividenda
14:54
would stimulate the economy
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stimulirali bi ekonomiju
14:56
and innovations,
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i inovacije,
14:58
creating millions of jobs.
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stvarajući milijune poslova.
15:00
It is the principal requirement
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To je glavni uvjet
15:02
for moving us rapidly
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koji bi nas brzo odveo
15:05
to a clean energy future.
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do čiste energetske budućnosti.
15:07
Several top economists
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Nekoliko vrsnih ekonomista
15:09
are coauthors on this proposition.
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su koautori ovog prijedloga.
15:12
Jim DiPeso of Republicans for Environmental Protection
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Jim DiPeso iz Republikanaca za ekološku zaštitu
15:15
describes it thusly:
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to ovako opisuje:
15:17
"Transparent. Market-based.
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„Transparentno. Temeljeno na tržištu.
15:19
Does not enlarge government.
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Ne povećava vladu.
15:21
Leaves energy decisions to individual choices.
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Ostavlja energetske odluke vlastitom izboru.
15:24
Sounds like a conservative climate plan."
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Zvuči kao konzervativan klimatski plan.“
15:28
But instead of placing a rising fee on carbon emissions
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Ali umjesto da povećaju pristojbu na emisiju ugljika
15:32
to make fossil fuels pay
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kako bi fosilna goriva platila
15:35
their true cost to society,
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stvarnu vrijednost društvu,
15:37
our governments are forcing the public
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naša vlada forsira javnost
15:40
to subsidize fossil fuels
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da subvencionira fosilna goriva
15:43
by 400 to 500 billion dollars
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za 400 do 500 milijardi dolara
15:46
per year worldwide,
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godišnje širom svijeta,
15:48
thus encouraging extraction of every fossil fuel --
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tako ohrabrujući vađenje svog fosilnog goriva –
15:51
mountaintop removal,
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uklanjanje planina,
15:53
longwall mining, fracking,
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rudarenje, hidraulično lomljenje,
15:55
tar sands, tar shale,
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katraniziranje pijeska, katraniziranje škriljca,
15:57
deep ocean Arctic drilling.
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dubokooceansko bušenje Arktika.
16:00
This path, if continued,
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Ovaj put, ako se nastavi,
16:02
guarantees that we will pass tipping points
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garantira da ćemo prijeći vrhunac
16:05
leading to ice sheet disintegration
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koji vodi do raspadanja ledenih ploča
16:07
that will accelerate out of control of future generations.
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koje će se nekontrolirano ubrzati u budućim generacijama.
16:11
A large fraction of species
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Velik dio vrsta
16:13
will be committed to extinction.
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bit će doveden do istrebljenja.
16:15
And increasing intensity of droughts and floods
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A povećan intenzitet suša i poplava
16:17
will severely impact breadbaskets of the world,
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neizmjerno će utjecati na žitnice svijeta
16:20
causing massive famines
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uzrokujući masovnu glad
16:22
and economic decline.
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i ekonomsko propadanje.
16:26
Imagine a giant asteroid
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Zamislite golemi asteroid
16:29
on a direct collision course with Earth.
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na izravnoj Zemljinoj putanji.
16:33
That is the equivalent
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To je ono s čime
16:35
of what we face now.
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smo sada suočeni.
16:37
Yet, we dither,
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Ipak, mi drhtimo
16:39
taking no action
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ne poduzimajući ništa
16:41
to divert the asteroid,
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kako bismo skrenuli asteroid
16:43
even though the longer we wait,
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iako, što duže čekamo,
16:45
the more difficult and expensive it becomes.
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to postaje sve teže i skuplje.
16:49
If we had started in 2005,
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Da smo počeli 2005.
16:51
it would have required emission reductions of three percent per year
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to bi zahtijevalo smanjenje emisije od 3% godišnje
16:54
to restore planetary energy balance
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kako bismo povratili planetarni energetski balans
16:57
and stabilize climate this century.
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i stabilizirali klimu u ovom stoljeću.
17:00
If we start next year,
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Ako počnemo sljedeće godine,
17:02
it is six percent per year.
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to je 6% godišnje.
17:04
If we wait 10 years, it is 15 percent per year --
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Ako čekamo 10 godina, to je 15% godišnje –
17:07
extremely difficult and expensive,
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veoma teško i skupo,
17:09
perhaps impossible.
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možda čak i nemoguće.
17:12
But we aren't even starting.
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Ali mi uopće ne počinjemo.
17:14
So now you know what I know
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Sada znate ono što ja znam
17:17
that is moving me to sound this alarm.
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i što me vodi tome da upalim ovaj alarm.
17:20
Clearly, I haven't gotten this message across.
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Jasno je, nisam prenio ovu poruku posvuda.
17:23
The science is clear.
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Znanost je jasna.
17:26
I need your help
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Trebam vašu pomoć
17:28
to communicate the gravity and the urgency
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kako bih komunicirao o težini i hitnosti
17:30
of this situation
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ove situacije
17:32
and its solutions
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i njenih rješenja
17:34
more effectively.
412
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još efikasnije.
17:36
We owe it to our children and grandchildren.
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Dugujemo to našoj djeci i unucima.
17:38
Thank you.
414
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Hvala.
17:40
(Applause)
415
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
James Hansen - ClimatologistJames Hansen has made key insights into our global climate -- and inspired a generation of activists and scientists.
Why you should listen
James Hansen is Adjunct Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University’s Earth Institute. He was trained in physics and astronomy in the space science program of James Van Allen at the University of Iowa. His early research on the clouds of Venus helped identify their composition as sulfuric acid. Since the late 1970s, he has focused his research on Earth's climate, especially human-made climate change. From 1981 to 2013, he headed the NASA Godard Institute for Space Studies. He is also a member of the National Academy of Sciences.
Hansen is known for his testimony on climate change to congressional committees in the 1980s that helped raise broad awareness of the global warming issue. Hansen is recognized for speaking truth to power, for identifying ineffectual policies as greenwash, and for outlining the actions that the public must take to protect the future of young people and the other species on the planet.
James Hansen | Speaker | TED.com