TED2019
Edward Tenner: The paradox of efficiency
Edward Tenner: Kako da djelotvornost radi za nas
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Jesmo li zbog opsjednutosti djelotvornošću manje djelotvorni? U ovom razotkrivajućem govoru, pisac i povjesničar Edward Tenner raspravlja o obećanjima i opasnostima našeg nastojanja da stvari obavimo što brže - i predlaže sedam načina na koje možemo „nadahnutu nedjelotvornost“ iskoristiti za povećanu produktivnost.
Edward Tenner - Historian of technology and culture
Edward Tenner is an independent writer, speaker, and editor analyzing the cultural aspects of technological change. Full bio
Edward Tenner is an independent writer, speaker, and editor analyzing the cultural aspects of technological change. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Who doesn't love efficiency?
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Tko ne voli djelotvornost?
00:14
I do.
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Ja volim.
00:16
Efficiency means more for less.
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Djelotvornost znači više za manje.
00:19
More miles per gallon,
more light per watt,
more light per watt,
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Više kilometara za litru benzina,
više svjetla po wattu,
više svjetla po wattu,
00:23
more words per minute.
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više riječi u minuti.
00:25
More for less is the next best thing
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Više za manje je sljedeći veliki korak
00:28
to something for nothing.
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prema nečemu ni iz čega.
00:31
Algorithms, big data, the cloud
are giving us more for less.
are giving us more for less.
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Algoritmi, hrpa podataka i oblak
nam daju više za manje.
nam daju više za manje.
00:36
Are we heading toward
a friction-free utopia
a friction-free utopia
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Klizimo li lako prema utopiji
00:39
or toward a nightmare of surveillance?
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ili noćnoj mori nadgledanja?
00:42
I don't know.
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Ne znam.
00:43
My interest is in the present.
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Mene zanima sadašnjost.
00:46
And I'd like to show you
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I želim vam pokazati
00:48
how the past can help us
understand the present.
understand the present.
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kako nam prošlost može pomoći
razumjeti sadašnjost.
razumjeti sadašnjost.
00:52
There's nothing that summarizes
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Ništa bolje ne sumira
00:55
both the promise
and the danger of efficiency
and the danger of efficiency
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obećanje i opasnost djelotvornosti
00:57
like the humble potato.
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kao jedan običan krumpir.
00:59
The potato originated in the Andes
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Krumpir potječe s Anda
01:02
and it spread to Europe
from the ancient Inca.
from the ancient Inca.
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i od drevnih Inka je stigao do Europe.
01:07
The potato is a masterpiece
of balanced nutrition.
of balanced nutrition.
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Krumpir je vrhunsko djelo
balansirane ishrane.
balansirane ishrane.
01:13
And it had some very powerful friends.
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A imao je i neke vrlo moćne prijatelje.
01:16
King Frederick the Great of Prussia
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Pruski kralj Fridrik II Veliki
01:19
was the first enthusiast.
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bio je prvi entuzijast.
01:22
He believed that the potato could help
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Vjerovao je da krumpir može pomoći
01:25
increase the population
of healthy Prussians.
of healthy Prussians.
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povećati populaciju zdravih Prusa.
01:28
And the more healthy Prussians,
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A što je više zdravih Prusa,
01:31
the more healthy Prussian soldiers.
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to je više zdravih pruskih vojnika.
01:34
And some of those
healthy Prussian soldiers
healthy Prussian soldiers
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Neki od tih zdravih pruskih vojnika
01:36
captured a French military
pharmacist named Parmentier.
pharmacist named Parmentier.
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su uhvatili francuskog vojnog ljekarnika
po imenu Parmentier.
po imenu Parmentier.
01:41
Parmentier, at first, was appalled
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Parmentier je isprva bio zaprepašten
01:43
by the morning, noon and night diet
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krumpirovim doručkom, ručkom i večerom
01:47
fed to POWs of potatoes,
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koji su služeni ratnim zarobljenicima,
01:51
but he came to enjoy it.
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ali je, s vremenom, počeo uživati u jelu.
01:53
He thought they were making
him a healthier person.
him a healthier person.
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Mislio je da ga čine zdravijom osobom.
01:56
And so, when he was released,
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Pa je nakon puštanja na slobodu
01:58
he took it on himself
to spread the potato to France.
to spread the potato to France.
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uzeo u zadatak da krumpir
proširi Francuskom.
proširi Francuskom.
02:03
And he had some powerful friends.
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I on je imao neke moćne prijatelje.
02:05
Benjamin Franklin
advised him to hold a banquet,
advised him to hold a banquet,
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Benjamin Franklin
ga je savjetovao da održi gozbu
ga je savjetovao da održi gozbu
02:10
at which every dish included potatoes.
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na kojoj će svako jelo sadržavati krumpir.
02:15
And Franklin was a guest of honor.
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A Franklin je bio počasni gost.
02:18
Even the king and queen of France
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Čak su uvjerili
francuskog kralja i kraljicu
francuskog kralja i kraljicu
02:20
were persuaded to wear potatoes,
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da odjenu krumpire,
02:24
potato flowers, pardon me.
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oprostite, cvjetove krumpira.
02:26
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
02:27
The king wore a potato
flower in his lapel,
flower in his lapel,
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Kralj je nosio cvijet krumpira za reverom,
02:31
and the queen wore
a potato flower in her hair.
a potato flower in her hair.
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a kraljica ga je umetnula u kosu.
02:35
That was a truly great
public relations idea.
public relations idea.
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To je bila zaista
odlična promotivna ideja.
odlična promotivna ideja.
02:39
But there was a catch.
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Ali, postojao je i problem.
02:41
The potato was too efficient
for Europe's good.
for Europe's good.
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Krumpir je bio predjelotvoran za Europu.
02:45
In Ireland, it seemed a miracle.
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U Irskoj se činio kao čudo.
02:47
Potatoes flourished, the population grew.
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Krumpir se širio, populacija je rasla.
02:50
But there was a hidden risk.
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Ali, postojao je i nepoznati rizik.
02:52
Ireland's potatoes
were genetically identical.
were genetically identical.
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Irski su krumpiri bili genetski identični.
02:55
They were a very efficient breed,
called the Lumper.
called the Lumper.
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Bili su od vrlo djelotvorne sorte,
imenom Lumper.
imenom Lumper.
02:59
And the problem with the Lumper
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Problem s Lumperom
03:02
was that a blight from South America
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je bila bolest medljika iz Južne Amerike
03:05
that affected one potato
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koja, ako bi zarazila jedan krumpir,
03:07
would affect them all.
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zarazila bi sve.
03:09
Britain's exploitation
and callousness played a role,
and callousness played a role,
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Britansko izrabljivanje i ćudljivost
su imali svoju ulogu,
su imali svoju ulogu,
03:13
but it was because of this monoculture
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ali je ta monokultura uzrokovala
03:16
that a million people died
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smrt milijun ljudi,
03:19
and another two million
were forced to emigrate.
were forced to emigrate.
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a još dva su bila prisiljena iseliti.
03:23
A plant that was supposed to end famine
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Biljka koja je trebala iskorijeniti glad
03:26
created one of the most tragic ones.
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bila je uzrok jedne od najgorih ikad.
03:29
The problems of efficiency today
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Problem djelotvornosti danas
03:31
are less drastic but more chronic.
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je manje drastičan, a više kroničan.
03:34
They can also prolong the evils
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Čak mogu produžiti zlo
03:36
that they were intended to solve.
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koje su namjeravali riješiti.
03:38
Take the electronic medical records.
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Uzmite elektroničke medicinske zapise.
03:40
It seemed to be the answer
to the problem of doctors' handwriting,
to the problem of doctors' handwriting,
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Činili su se kao odgovor na problem
ružnih liječničkih rukopisa,
ružnih liječničkih rukopisa,
03:44
and it had the benefit
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uz dodatnu pogodnost
03:45
of providing much better data
for treatments.
for treatments.
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puno kvalitetnijih podataka za
liječenje pacijenata.
liječenje pacijenata.
03:49
In practice, instead, it has meant
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Umjesto toga, u praksi, to je značilo
03:51
much more electronic paperwork
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puno više elektroničkog izvještavanja
03:53
and physicians are now complaining
that they have less,
that they have less,
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pa se liječnici sada bune
da imaju manje
da imaju manje
03:56
rather than more time
to see patients individually.
to see patients individually.
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umjesto više vremena za posvećivanje
pažnje pacijentima.
pažnje pacijentima.
04:01
The obsession with efficiency
can actually make us less efficient.
can actually make us less efficient.
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Opsjednutost djelotvornošću može
nas učiniti manje djelotvornima.
nas učiniti manje djelotvornima.
04:06
Efficiency also bites back
with false positives.
with false positives.
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Djelotvornost ponekad uzvraća
lažnim pozitivnim rezultatima.
lažnim pozitivnim rezultatima.
04:09
Hospitals have hundreds
of devices registering alarms.
of devices registering alarms.
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Bolnice imaju stotine uređaja
koji bilježe alarme.
koji bilježe alarme.
04:13
Too often, they're crying wolf.
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Koji se prečesto uključuju.
04:15
It takes time to rule those out.
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Potrebno je vrijeme da ih se isključi,
04:17
And that time results in fatigue,
stress and, once more,
stress and, once more,
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a to vrijeme povećava umor,
stres i, još jednom,
stres i, još jednom,
04:22
the neglect of the problems
of real patients.
of real patients.
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zanemarivanje problema
stvarnih pacijenata.
stvarnih pacijenata.
04:26
There are also false positives
in pattern recognition.
in pattern recognition.
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Postoje i lažni pozitivni podaci
u prepoznavanju uzoraka.
u prepoznavanju uzoraka.
04:30
A school bus, viewed from the wrong angle,
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Školski autobus, gledan iz pogrešnog ugla
04:32
can resemble a punching bag.
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može izgledati kao vreća za udaranje.
04:35
So precious time is required
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Pa se gubi dragocjeno vrijeme
04:37
to eliminate misidentification.
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kako bi se odstranile pogrešne
identifikacije.
identifikacije.
04:40
False negatives are a problem, too.
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I lažni negativni podaci su
također problem.
također problem.
04:42
Algorithms can learn a lot -- fast.
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Algoritmi mogu puno naučiti,
i to vrlo brzo.
i to vrlo brzo.
04:45
But they can tell us only about the past.
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Ali nam mogu govoriti samo o prošlosti.
04:48
So many future classics
get bad reviews, like "Moby Dick,"
get bad reviews, like "Moby Dick,"
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Pa mnogi budući klasici književnosti,
kao "Moby Dick", dobiju lošu ocjenu,
kao "Moby Dick", dobiju lošu ocjenu,
04:53
or are turned down
by multiple publishers,
by multiple publishers,
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ili ih mnogi izdavači odbiju,
04:55
like the "Harry Potter" series.
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poput knjiga iz serijala "Harry Potter".
04:57
It can be wasteful
to try to avoid all waste.
to try to avoid all waste.
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Može biti rasipnički
pokušavati izbjeći otpad.
pokušavati izbjeći otpad.
05:02
Efficiency is also a trap
when the opposition copies it.
when the opposition copies it.
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Djelotvornost je također zamka
kad je kopira opozicija.
kad je kopira opozicija.
05:05
Take the late 19th-century
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Uzmimo kasno 19. stoljeće.
05:07
French 75-millimeter artillery piece.
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Francuski topovi od 75 milimetara
05:11
It was a masterpiece of lethal design.
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bili su remek-djelo smrtonosnog dizajna.
05:13
This piece could fire a shell
every four seconds.
every four seconds.
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Mogli su ispaljivati tane
svake četiri sekunde.
svake četiri sekunde.
05:18
But that wasn't so unusual.
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To nije bilo tako neobično.
05:19
What was really brilliant
was that because of the recoil mechanism,
was that because of the recoil mechanism,
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Ono po čemu su bili sjajni
je povratni mehanizam,
je povratni mehanizam,
05:23
it could return to the exact same position
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koji se mogao vratiti u
potpuno istu poziciju
potpuno istu poziciju
05:26
without having to be reaimed.
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bez potrebe za ponovnim ciljanjem.
05:28
So the effective rate of firing
was drastically increased.
was drastically increased.
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Zbog toga je značajno porasla
učestalost ispaljivanja.
učestalost ispaljivanja.
05:32
Now, this seemed to be a way for France
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To se činilo kao način da Francuska
05:34
to defeat Germany
the next time they fought.
the next time they fought.
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pobijedi Njemačku u sljedećem sukobu.
05:39
But, predictably, the Germans were working
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Ali, predvidivo, Nijemci su radili
05:42
on something very similar.
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na nečem vrlo sličnom.
05:44
So when the First World War broke out,
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Pa kad je izbio Prvi svjetski rat,
05:46
the result was the trench warfare
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rezultat je bio rovovski rat
05:49
that lasted longer
than anybody had expected.
than anybody had expected.
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koji je trajao dulje nego
je itko očekivao.
je itko očekivao.
05:52
A technology that was designed
to shorten the war, prolonged it.
to shorten the war, prolonged it.
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Tehnologija koja je oblikovana
da skrati rat, zapravo ga je produljila.
da skrati rat, zapravo ga je produljila.
05:58
The biggest cost of all
may be missed opportunities.
may be missed opportunities.
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Najveći trošak mogu biti
propuštene prilike.
propuštene prilike.
06:01
The platform economy
connecting buyers and sellers
connecting buyers and sellers
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Ekonomska platforma koja povezuje
kupce i prodavače
kupce i prodavače
06:05
can be a great investment,
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može biti odlično ulaganje,
06:06
and we have seen that
in the last few weeks.
in the last few weeks.
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a vidjeli smo tako nešto
zadnjih nekoliko tjedana.
zadnjih nekoliko tjedana.
06:09
Companies that are still losing
hundreds of millions of dollars
hundreds of millions of dollars
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Poduzeća koja i dalje gube
stotine milijuna dolara
stotine milijuna dolara
06:13
may be creating billionaires
with initial public offerings.
with initial public offerings.
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možda stvaraju milijardere
izlaskom na burzu.
izlaskom na burzu.
06:18
But the really difficult inventions
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No, zaista značajni izumi
06:22
are the physical and chemical ones.
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su oni u fizici i kemiji.
06:24
They mean bigger risks.
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Oni predstavljaju veći rizik.
06:27
They may be losing out,
because hardware is hard.
because hardware is hard.
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Možda stvaraju gubitke jer
im oprema predstavlja problem.
im oprema predstavlja problem.
06:30
It's much harder to scale up
a physical or chemical invention
a physical or chemical invention
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Puno je teže fizikalne ili kemijske izume
proizvesti u velikim količinama
proizvesti u velikim količinama
06:34
than it is a software-based invention.
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nego one softverske.
06:38
Think of batteries.
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Sjetite se baterija.
06:39
Lithium-ion batteries
in portable devices and electric cars
in portable devices and electric cars
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Litij-ionske baterije u prijenosnim
uređajima i električnim vozilima
uređajima i električnim vozilima
06:43
are based on a 30-year-old principle.
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se temelje na načelu starom 30 godina.
06:47
How many smartphone batteries today
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Koliko baterija u pametnim telefonima
06:49
will last a full day on a single charge?
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će danas trajati cijeli dan
jednim punjenjem?
jednim punjenjem?
06:53
Yes, hardware is hard.
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Da, hardver je problem.
06:56
It took over 20 years for the patent
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Trebalo je 20 godina da patent
06:59
on the principle of dry photocopying,
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Chestera Carlsona iz 1938.,
07:01
by Chester Carlson in 1938,
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o načelima suhog fotokopiranja
07:05
to result in the Xerox 914 copier
introduced in 1959.
introduced in 1959.
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1959. postane stroj za fotokopiranje
Xerox 914.
Xerox 914.
07:12
The small, brave company,
Haloid in Rochester, NY
Haloid in Rochester, NY
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Malo, hrabro poduzeće
Haloid iz Rochestera u državi New York
Haloid iz Rochestera u državi New York
07:17
had to go through what most corporations
would never have tolerated.
would never have tolerated.
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je moralo proći kroz ono što većina
poduzeća ne bi nikad podnijela.
poduzeća ne bi nikad podnijela.
07:22
There was one failure after another,
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Događale su se greška za greškom,
07:24
and one of the special problems was fire.
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a poseban problem je bila vatra.
07:28
In fact, when the 914
was finally released,
was finally released,
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Zapravo, kad je 914 bio predstavljen,
07:31
it still had a device
that was called a scorch eliminator
that was called a scorch eliminator
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u njega je bio ugrađen uređaj
koji su nazvali eliminator gorenja,
koji su nazvali eliminator gorenja,
07:36
but actually it was
a small fire extinguisher built in.
a small fire extinguisher built in.
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što je zapravo bio mali, ugrađeni
uređaj za gašenje požara.
uređaj za gašenje požara.
07:42
My answer to all these questions is:
inspired inefficiency.
inspired inefficiency.
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Moj odgovor na sva ta pitanja je:
nadahnuta nedjelotvornost.
nadahnuta nedjelotvornost.
07:46
Data and measurement are essential,
but they're not enough.
but they're not enough.
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Podaci i mjerenja su nužni,
ali nisu dovoljni.
ali nisu dovoljni.
07:50
Let's leave room for human intuition
and human skills.
and human skills.
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Ostavimo prostor za ljudsku intuiciju
i ljudske vještine.
i ljudske vještine.
07:54
There are seven facets
of inspired inefficiency.
of inspired inefficiency.
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Sedam je stajališta
nadahnute nedjelotvornosti.
nadahnute nedjelotvornosti.
07:58
First, take the scenic route,
say yes to serendipity.
say yes to serendipity.
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Prvo, koristite put s pogledom,
prihvatite slučajna otkrića.
prihvatite slučajna otkrića.
08:02
Wrong turns can be productive.
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Pogrešno skretanje može biti produktivno.
08:05
Once, when I was exploring
the east bank of the Mississippi,
the east bank of the Mississippi,
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Kada sam jednom proučavao istočnu
obalu Mississippija,
obalu Mississippija,
08:08
I took the wrong turn.
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krenuo sam u pogrešnom smjeru.
08:10
I was approaching a toll bridge
crossing the great river,
crossing the great river,
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Prilazio sam mostu s naplatom
koji je prelazio preko rijeke,
koji je prelazio preko rijeke,
08:13
and the toll collector
said I could not turn back.
said I could not turn back.
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a čovjek u naplatnoj kućici je
rekao da se ne mogu vratiti.
rekao da se ne mogu vratiti.
08:17
So I paid my 50 cents --
that's all it was at the time --
that's all it was at the time --
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Platio sam svojih 50 centi --
tada je to stajalo toliko --
tada je to stajalo toliko --
08:20
and I was in Muscatine, Iowa.
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i našao sam se u Muscatineu, Iowi.
08:24
I had barely heard of Muscatine,
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Jedva da sam i čuo za Muscatine,
08:26
but it proved to be a fascinating place.
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ali se pokazao kao očaravajuće mjesto.
08:29
Muscatine had some
of the world's richest mussel beds.
of the world's richest mussel beds.
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Muscatine je imao jedno od najvećih
svjetskih nalazišta dagnji.
svjetskih nalazišta dagnji.
08:33
A century ago,
a third of the world's buttons
a third of the world's buttons
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Prije sto godina
trećina sve svjetske dugmadi
trećina sve svjetske dugmadi
08:36
were produced in Muscatine,
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se proizvodila u Muscatineu.
08:38
1.5 billion a year.
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1,5 milijardi godišnje.
08:41
The last plants have closed now,
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Sada su zatvorene i posljednje tvornice,
08:43
but there is still a museum
of the pearl button industry
of the pearl button industry
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ali još postoji muzej
industrije biserne dugmadi
industrije biserne dugmadi
08:47
that's one of the most
unusual in the world.
unusual in the world.
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koji je jedan od najčudnijih na svijetu.
08:50
But buttons were only the beginning.
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A dugmad je samo početak!
08:51
This is the house in Muscatine
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Ovo je kuća u Muscatineu
08:53
where China's future
president stayed in 1986,
president stayed in 1986,
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u kojoj je boravio budući
kineski predsjednik 1986.
kineski predsjednik 1986.
08:56
as a member of an agricultural delegation.
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kao član poljoprivrednog izaslanstva.
08:59
It is now the Sino-US Friendship House,
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Sada je to kuća Sino-SAD prijateljstva
09:02
and it's a pilgrimage site
for Chinese tourists.
for Chinese tourists.
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i mjesto je hodočašća za kineske turiste.
09:05
How could I have foreseen that?
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Mogao sam to i predvidjeti!
09:07
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
09:09
Second, get up from the couch.
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Drugo, ustanite s trosjeda.
09:13
Sometimes it can be more efficient
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Ponekad je djelotvornije
09:15
to do things the hard way.
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učiniti stvari na teži način.
09:17
Consider the internet of things.
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Uzmite internet stvari.
09:19
It's wonderful
to be able to control lights,
to be able to control lights,
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Prekrasno je upravljati svjetlima,
09:22
set the thermostat, even vacuum the room
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postaviti termostat ili očistiti sobu,
09:25
without leaving one's seat.
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a da se niste makli sa stolca.
09:26
But medical research has shown
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No, medicinska istraživanja pokazuju
09:29
that actually fidgeting,
getting up, walking around
getting up, walking around
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da je vrpoljenje, ustajanje,
hodanje naokolo
hodanje naokolo
09:32
is one of the best things
you can do for your heart.
you can do for your heart.
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jedna od najboljih stvari koju možete
učiniti za svoje srce.
učiniti za svoje srce.
09:35
It's good for the heart and the waistline.
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Dobro je i za srce i za struk.
09:38
Third, monetize your mistakes.
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Treće, učite na greškama.
09:41
Great forms can be created
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Velike stvari mogu biti stvorene
09:43
by imaginative development of accidents.
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maštovitim razvojem događaja.
09:46
Tad Leski, an architect
of the Metropolitan Opera
of the Metropolitan Opera
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Tad Leski, arhitekt Metropolitan opere
09:49
at Lincoln Center,
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u Lincolnovom centru
09:51
was working on a sketch
and some white ink fell on the drawing.
and some white ink fell on the drawing.
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je radio skicu kad mu je
nešto bijele tinte palo na crtež.
nešto bijele tinte palo na crtež.
09:56
Other people might just
have thrown it away,
have thrown it away,
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Neki bi ljudi odmah to bacili u smeće.
09:59
but Leski was inspired
to produce a starburst chandelier
to produce a starburst chandelier
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Leskija je to nadahnulo da
stvori zvjezdani luster
stvori zvjezdani luster
10:03
that was probably the most notable
of its kind of the 20th century.
of its kind of the 20th century.
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koji je vjerojatno najistaknutiji
svoje vrste u 20-om stoljeću.
svoje vrste u 20-om stoljeću.
10:09
Fourth, sometimes try the hard way.
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Četvrto, ponekad pokušajte na teži način.
10:12
It can be more efficient
to be less fluent.
to be less fluent.
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Može biti djelotvornije kad nam nije lako.
10:15
Psychologists call this
desirable difficulty.
desirable difficulty.
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Psiholozi to nazivaju poželjna teškoća.
10:18
Taking detailed notes with a keyboard
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Detaljne bilješke pomoću računala
10:20
would seem to be the best way
to grasp what a lecturer is saying,
to grasp what a lecturer is saying,
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se mogu činiti najboljim načinom za
bilježenje onog što predavač govori,
bilježenje onog što predavač govori,
10:24
to be able to review it verbatim.
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kako bismo više toga zabilježili.
10:27
However, studies have shown
that when we have to abbreviate,
that when we have to abbreviate,
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Ipak, istraživanja su pokazala da,
kada moramo skraćivati,
kada moramo skraćivati,
10:31
when we have to summarize
what a speaker is saying,
what a speaker is saying,
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kada moramo sažeti što govornik govori,
10:34
when we're taking notes
with a pen or a pencil on paper,
with a pen or a pencil on paper,
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kad bilježimo olovkom na papiru,
10:39
we're processing that information.
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mi obrađujemo informacije.
10:41
We're making that our own,
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Mi ih činimo svojima
10:42
and we are learning much more actively
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i učimo puno aktivnije
10:45
than when we were just transcribing
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nego kad samo doslovno prenosimo
10:48
what was being said.
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što je rečeno.
10:50
Fifth, get security through diversity.
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Peto, steknite sigurnost
pomoću različitosti.
pomoću različitosti.
10:53
Monoculture can be deadly.
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Monokultura može biti smrtonosna.
10:55
Remember the potato?
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Sjećate se krumpira?
10:56
It was efficient until it wasn't.
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Bio je djelotvoran dok više nije bio.
10:58
Diversity applies to organizations, too.
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Različitost je primjenjiva
i na organizacije.
i na organizacije.
11:02
Software can tell what has made people
in an organization succeed in the past.
in an organization succeed in the past.
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Softver nam može reći što je u prošlosti
ljude u organizacijama učinilo uspješnima.
ljude u organizacijama učinilo uspješnima.
11:07
And it's useful, sometimes,
in screening employees.
in screening employees.
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Ponekad je koristan i u provjeri radnika.
11:10
But remember, the environment
is constantly changing,
is constantly changing,
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Ali, zapamtite, okolina se
neprestano mijenja,
neprestano mijenja,
11:15
and software, screening software,
has no way to tell,
has no way to tell,
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a softver, softver za provjeru,
nema načina reći,
nema načina reći,
11:19
and we have no way to tell,
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a ni mi nemamo načina reći,
11:20
who is going to be useful in the future.
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tko će biti koristan u budućnosti.
11:23
So, we need to supplement
whatever the algorithm tells us
whatever the algorithm tells us
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Zato trebamo upotpuniti ono
što nam govori algoritam
što nam govori algoritam
11:28
by an intuition and by looking for people
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uz pomoć intuicije i traženjem ljudi
11:31
with various backgrounds
and various outlooks.
and various outlooks.
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različitog iskustva i različitih pogleda.
11:35
Sixth, achieve safety
through redundancy and human skills.
through redundancy and human skills.
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Šesto, ostvarite sigurnost
pomoću zalihosti i ljudskih vještina.
pomoću zalihosti i ljudskih vještina.
11:39
Why did two 737 Max aircraft crash?
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Zbog čega su se srušila dva
737 Max zrakoplova?
737 Max zrakoplova?
11:43
We still don't know the full story,
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Još uvijek ne znamo potpunu priču,
11:45
but we know how to
prevent future tragedies.
prevent future tragedies.
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ali znamo kako spriječiti tragedije
u budućnosti.
u budućnosti.
11:48
We need multiple independent systems.
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Potrebni su nam višestruki
nezavisni sustavi.
nezavisni sustavi.
11:50
If one fails, then the others
can override it.
can override it.
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Ako jedan zakaže, drugi ga mogu
nadomjestiti.
nadomjestiti.
11:54
We also need skilled operators
to come to the rescue
to come to the rescue
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Trebamo i vješte rukovatelje
koji će doći i spasiti stvar,
koji će doći i spasiti stvar,
11:58
and that means constant training.
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a to znači stalni trening.
12:00
Seventh, be rationally extravagant.
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Sedmo, budite racionalno ekstravagantni.
12:04
Thomas Edison was a pioneer
of the film industry,
of the film industry,
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Thomas Edison je bio preteča
filmske industrije
filmske industrije
12:06
as well as of camera technology.
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kao i tehnologije snimanja kamerom.
12:09
Nobody has done more
for efficiency than Thomas Edison.
for efficiency than Thomas Edison.
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Nitko nije toliko učinio za
djelotvornost kao Thomas Edison.
djelotvornost kao Thomas Edison.
12:13
But his cost cutting broke down.
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Ali njegovo rezanje troškova
ga je upropastilo.
ga je upropastilo.
12:15
His manager hired
a so-called efficiency engineer,
a so-called efficiency engineer,
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Njegov menadžer je zaposlio tzv.
inženjera djelotvornosti
inženjera djelotvornosti
12:18
who advised him to save money
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koji ga je savjetovao da uštedi novac
12:21
by using more of the film stock
that he'd shot,
that he'd shot,
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koristeći stare snimke koje je snimio
12:24
having fewer retakes.
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i snimajući s manje ponavljanja scena.
12:26
Well, Edison was a genius,
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Edison je bio genijalac,
12:27
but he didn't understand
the new rules of feature films
the new rules of feature films
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ali nije razumio nova pravila
igranih filmova
igranih filmova
12:31
and the fact that failure
was becoming the price of success.
was becoming the price of success.
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i činjenicu da je greška postala
cijena uspjeha.
cijena uspjeha.
12:36
On the other hand, some great directors,
like Erich Von Stroheim,
like Erich Von Stroheim,
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S druge strane, neki veliki redatelji,
kao Erich Von Stroheim,
kao Erich Von Stroheim,
12:40
were the opposite.
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mislili su drugačije.
12:41
They were superb dramatists,
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Bili su vrhunski dramatičari,
12:42
and Stroheim was also a memorable actor.
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a Stroheim je bio i pamtljiv glumac.
12:46
But they couldn't live
within their budgets.
within their budgets.
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Ali nisu mogli živjeti od novca
koji su zarađivali.
koji su zarađivali.
12:48
So that was not sustainable.
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To nije bilo održivo.
12:51
It was Irving Thalberg,
a former secretary with intuitive genius,
a former secretary with intuitive genius,
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Irving Thalberg, bivši tajnik
i intuitivni genijalac,
i intuitivni genijalac,
je bio taj koji je ostvario
racionalnu neumjerenost.
racionalnu neumjerenost.
12:55
who achieved rational extravagance.
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12:57
First at Universal, and then at MGM,
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Najprije je u Universalu, a zatim i MGM-u,
13:00
becoming the ideal
of the Hollywood producer.
of the Hollywood producer.
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postao idealni hollywoodski producent.
13:04
Summing up, to be truly efficient,
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Da završim, da bismo bili
potpuno djelotvorni,
potpuno djelotvorni,
13:08
we need optimal inefficiency.
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potrebna nam je optimalna nedjelotvornost.
13:10
The shortest path may be a curve
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Najkraći put je ponekad zavojit
13:13
rather than a straight line.
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umjesto ravan.
13:15
Charles Darwin understood that.
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Charles Darwin je to razumio.
13:17
When he encountered a tough problem,
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Kad se suočio s teškim problemima,
13:19
he made a circuit of a trail,
255
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iza svoje kuće je sagradio
13:21
the sandwalk that he'd built
behind his house.
behind his house.
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pješčanu, kružnu stazu.
13:24
A productive path
can be physical, like Darwin's,
can be physical, like Darwin's,
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Produktivan način može biti fizički
poput Darwinovog,
poput Darwinovog,
13:28
or a virtual one, or an unforeseen detour
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ili virtualan, ili neviđen odmak
13:31
from a path we had laid out.
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od načina koji smo zamislili.
13:34
Too much efficiency can weaken itself.
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Prevelika djelotvornost može oslabiti
samu sebe.
samu sebe.
13:36
But a bit of inspired inefficiency
can strengthen it.
can strengthen it.
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Djelić nadahnute nedjelotvornosti
je može ojačati.
je može ojačati.
13:41
Sometimes, the best way to move forward
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Ponekad je najbolji način da idemo dalje
13:45
is to follow a circle.
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pratiti krug.
13:46
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
13:48
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Edward Tenner - Historian of technology and cultureEdward Tenner is an independent writer, speaker, and editor analyzing the cultural aspects of technological change.
Why you should listen
Edward Tenner is an independent writer and speaker on the history of technology and the unintended consequences of innovation. He writes for The Atlantic on history and current events, and was a founding advisor of Smithsonian's Lemelson Center, where he remains a senior research associate. He was executive editor for physical science and history at Princeton University Press, he has been a visiting lecturer at Princeton and has held visiting research positions at the Institute for Advanced Study, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, and the Princeton Center for Information Technology Policy. He is now a visiting scholar in the Rutgers School of Communication and Information and an affiliate of the Center for Arts and Cultural Policy of Princeton's Woodrow Wilson School.
Edward Tenner | Speaker | TED.com