TED2005
Amory Lovins: Winning the oil endgame
Amory Lovins: kako pobijediti u naftnoj završnici
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U ovom energičnom govoru, Amory Lovins tumači jednostavan plan kako se SAD mogu riješiti ovisnosti o nafti uz revitalizaciju ekonomije.
Amory Lovins - Physicist, energy guru
In his new book, "Reinventing Fire," Amory Lovins shares ingenious ideas for the next era of energy. Full bio
In his new book, "Reinventing Fire," Amory Lovins shares ingenious ideas for the next era of energy. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
The old story about climate protection is that it's costly,
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Stara priča o zaštiti klime jest da puno košta,
00:17
or it would have been done already.
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inače bi već bila ostvarena.
00:19
So government needs to make us do something painful to fix it.
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Stoga nas vlada treba natjerati na bolne mjere da se situacija popravi.
00:22
The new story about climate protection
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Nova priča o zaštiti klime je da
00:24
is that it's not costly, but profitable.
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ne košta, već je profitabilna
00:26
This was a simple sign error,
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Jednostavno, imamo pogrešan predznak
00:28
because it's cheaper to save fuel than to buy fuel,
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jer je jeftinije štedjeti gorivo nego ga kupovati,
00:31
as is well known to companies that do it all the time --
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što je dobro poznato kompanijama koje to stalno rade --
00:35
for example, Dupont, SD micro electronics.
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na primjer: Dupont, SD Micro Electronics
00:38
Many other firms -- IBM -- are reducing their energy intensity
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i mnoge druge, IBM, svoju potrošnje energije rutinski
00:43
routinely six percent a year by fixing up their plants,
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smanjuju za 6% godišnje modernizacijom svojih tvornica,
00:45
and they get their money back in two or three years.
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uz povrat ulaganja za dvije, tri godine.
00:48
That's called a profit.
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To se zove profit.
00:49
Now, similarly, the old story about oil is that if we wanted to save very much of it,
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Slično tome, stara priča o nafti jest da ako bismo je htjeli puno uštedjeti,
00:56
it would be expensive, or we would have done it already,
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to bi bilo skupo, ili bismo to već napravili,
01:00
because markets are essentially perfect.
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jer tržište u osnovi savršeno funkcionira.
01:02
If, of course, that were true, there would be no innovation,
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Naravno, kada bi to bilo tako onda ne bi bilo inovacija
01:05
and nobody could make any money.
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i nitko ne bi mogao zaraditi.
01:07
But the new story about oil
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Ali nova priča o nafti
01:09
is the government doesn't have to force us to do painful things to get off oil --
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jest da nas vlada ne mora tjerati na bolne postupke kako bi se riješili nafte --
01:13
not just incrementally, but completely --
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i to ne djelomično, već potpuno --
01:15
quite the contrary. The United States, for example,
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upravo suprotno. SAD, na primjer,
01:19
can completely eliminate its use of oil
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mogu potpuno eliminirati svoju potrebu za naftom
01:22
and rejuvenate the economy at the same time,
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i istovremeno potaknuti ekonomiju,
01:25
led by business for profit,
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pod vodstvom poslovnog svijeta,
01:27
because it's so much cheaper to save and substitute for the oil
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jer je puno jeftinije štedjeti i zamijeniti naftu
01:30
than to keep on buying it.
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nego je nastaviti kupovati.
01:32
This process will also be catalyzed by the military
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U tom će procesu katalizator biti i vojska
01:35
for its own reasons of combat effectiveness and preventing conflict,
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zbog vlastitih razloga borbene spremnosti i sprječavanja sukoba,
01:39
particularly over oil.
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posebno oko nafte.
01:41
This thesis is set out in a book called "Winning the Oil Endgame"
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Te su teze predstavljene u knjizi "Pobijediti u naftnoj završnici"
01:46
that four colleagues and I wrote
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koju smo napisali četvero kolega i ja.
01:48
and have posted for free at Oilendgame.com --
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Knjiga je dostupna besplatno na Oilendgame.com --
01:52
about 170,000 downloads so far.
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i do sada je preuzeta oko 170.000 puta.
01:55
And it was co-sponsored by the Pentagon --
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Knjigu je djelomično sponzorirao i Pentagon --
01:57
it's independent, it's peer-reviewed
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neovisna je, recenzirana od strane drugih stručnjaka.
01:59
and all of the backup calculations are transparently posted for your perusal.
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i svi proračuni transparentno su objavljeni, vama za provjeru.
02:04
Now, a bit of economic history, I think, may be helpful here.
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Sada, malo ekonomske povijesti, koja bi mogla pomoći ovdje.
02:09
Around 1850, one of the biggest U.S. industries was whaling.
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Oko 1850., jedna od najvećih industrija SAD-a je bio kitolov.
02:12
And whale oil lit practically every building.
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A kitovo ulje je osvjetljavalo, praktički, svaku kuću.
02:15
But in the nine years before Drake struck oil, in 1859,
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Ali u 9 godina prije nogo je Drake pronašao naftu 1859.
02:18
at least five-sixths of that whale oil-illuminating market disappeared,
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barem pet šestina tržišta kitovim uljem je nestalo,
02:22
thanks to fatal competitors, chiefly oil and gas made from coal,
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zahvaljujući konkurenciji, prvenstveno ulju i plinu proizvedenom od ugljena,
02:28
to which the whalers had not been paying attention.
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na koju kitolovci nisu obraćali pažnju.
02:31
So, very unexpectedly, they ran out of customers
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I tako su, vrlo neočekivano, ostali bez kupaca
02:35
before they ran out of whales.
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prije nego li su ostali bez kitova.
02:37
The remnant whale populations were saved by technological innovators
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Ostatke populacije kitova spasili su tehnološki inovatori
02:41
and profit-maximizing capitalists.
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i profita gladni kapitalisti.
02:43
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
02:46
And it's funny -- it feels a bit like this now for oil.
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I smiješno je jer podsjeća na sadašnju situaciju sa naftom.
02:49
We've been spending the last few decades
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Trošili smo mnogo u zadnjih par desetljeća
02:51
accumulating a very powerful backlog of technologies
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akumulirajući vrlo moćan skup tehnologija
02:54
for saving and substituting for oil,
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za štednju i zamjenu nafte,
02:56
and no one had bothered to add them up before.
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a da se nitko nije potrudio objediniti te tehnologije.
02:59
So when we did, we found some very surprising things.
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A kada smo ih zbrojili otkrili smo vrlo iznenađujuće stvari.
03:02
Now, there are two big reasons to be concerned about oil.
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Postoje dva velika razloga zašto bismo treba biti zabrinuti oko nafte.
03:06
Both national competitiveness and national security are at risk.
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I nacionalna konkurentnost i nacionalna sigurnost su u opasnosti.
03:10
On the competitiveness front,
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Kada je riječ o konkurentnosti,
03:12
we all know that Toyota has more market cap than the big three put together.
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svi znamo kako Toyota ima veći udio na tržištu nego GM, Ford i Chrysler zajedno.
03:17
And serious competition from Europe, from Korea,
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A tu je i ozbiljna konkurencija iz Europe, iz Koreje,
03:20
and next is China, which will soon be a major net exporter of cars.
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a sljedeća je Kina, koja će ubrzo biti velik izvoznik automobila.
03:25
How long do you think it will take before you can drive home your new
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Što mislite koliko vremena će proći prije nego budete u mogućnosti dovesti pred kuću vaše novo
03:28
wally-badged Shanghai automotive super-efficient car?
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super efikasno vozilo Šangajske autoindustrije?
03:34
Maybe a decade, according to my friends in Detroit.
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Možda za desetljeće, ako se pita moje prijatelje u Detroitu.
03:37
China has an energy policy
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Kina ima energetsku politiku
03:39
based on radical energy efficiency and leap-frog technology.
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baziranu na energetskoj efikasnosti i preskakivanju zastarijelih tehnologija.
03:42
They're not going to export your uncle's Buick.
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Kina neće izvoziti Buic vašeg strica.
03:45
And after that comes India.
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A poslije dolazi i Indija.
03:47
The point here is, these cars are going to be made super efficient.
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Stvar je u tome kako će se vozila proizvoditi da budu super efikasna.
03:51
The question is, who will make them?
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Pitanje je tko će ih proizvoditi?
03:53
Will we in the United States continue to import efficient cars to replace foreign oil,
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Hoćemo li mi u SAD-u nastaviti uvoziti štedljiva vozila da zamijenimo stranu naftu,
03:58
or will we make efficient cars and import neither the oil nor the cars?
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ili ćemo proizvoditi vlastita štedljiva vozila i ne uvoziti niti strana vozila niti stranu naftu?
04:02
That seems to make more sense.
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Mislim kako ovo drugo ima više smisla.
04:04
The more we keep on using the oil, particularly the imported oil,
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Što više budemo koristili naftu, pogotovo uvezenu naftu,
04:10
the more we face a very obvious array of problems.
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to se više suočavamo s očitom mrežom problema.
04:13
Our analysis assumes that they all cost nothing,
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Naša analiza pretpostavlja kako sve to ne košta ništa,
04:15
but nothing is not the right number.
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no ništa nije ispravan broj.
04:17
It could well be enough to double the oil price, for example.
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bilo bi dovoljno poduplati cijenu nafte, na primjer.
04:21
And one of the worst of these
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A jedan od gorih problema
04:23
is what it does to our standing in the world
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je što to utječe na naš položaj u svijetu
04:26
if other countries think that everything we do is about oil,
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ako druge države misle da sve što radimo ima veze sa naftom,
04:30
if we have to treat countries that have oil
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ako moramo države koje imaju naftu tretirati drukčije
04:32
differently than countries that don't have oil.
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nego države koje nemaju naftu.
04:35
And our military get quite unhappy
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A i naša vojska neće biti sretna
04:39
with having to stand guard on pipelines in Far-off-istan
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ako bude morala čuvati naftovod u Negdje-zemskoj
04:42
when what they actually signed up for
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umjesto da rade ono za šta su se i prijavili u vojsku
04:44
was to protect American citizens.
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a to je štititi američke građane.
04:46
They don't like fighting over oil,
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Vojska se ne želi boriti oko nafte,
04:48
they don't like being in the sands
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ne žele biti u pijesku
04:50
and they don't like where the oil money goes
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i ne sviđa im se gdje ide novac od nafte
04:52
and what sort of instability it creates.
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i nestabilnost koju ona stvara.
04:54
Now, in order to avoid these problems,
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Sada, kako bi izbjegli te probleme,
04:56
whatever you think they're worth, it's actually not that complicated.
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bez obzira koliko mislite da koštaju, to i nije toliko složeno.
04:59
We can save half the oil by using it more efficiently,
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Možemo uštedjeti pola nafte koristeći je efikasnije
05:02
at a cost of 12 dollars per saved barrel.
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po cijeni od 12 dolara po ušteđenom barelu.
05:06
And then we can replace the other half
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A drugu polovicu možemo zamijeniti
05:09
with a combination of advanced bio-fuels and safe natural gas.
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kombinacijom naprednog bio-goriva i prirodnog plina.
05:13
And that costs on average under 18 dollars a barrel.
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To nas u prosjeku košta ispod 18 dolara po barelu.
05:15
And compared with the official forecast,
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Ako to usporedimo sa službenim procjenama
05:18
that oil will cost 26 dollars a barrel in 2025,
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kako će nafta koštati 26 dolara po barelu 2025,
05:21
which is half of what we've been paying lately,
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što je otprilike pola od onog što plaćamo u zadnje vrijeme.
05:23
that will save 70 billion dollars a year, starting quite soon.
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Tako ćemo uštedjeti 70 milijardi dolara na godinu, počevši prilično brzo.
05:28
Now, in order to do this we need to invest about 180 billion dollars:
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Kako bi to napravili moramo uložiti oko 180 milijardi dolara.
05:33
half of it to retool the car, truck and plane industries;
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Polovicu kako bi se opremile industrije automobila, kamiona i zrakoplova.
05:36
half of it to build the advanced bio-fuel industry.
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Polovicu kako bi se izgradila napredna industrija bio-goriva.
05:38
In the process, we will gain about a million good jobs, mainly rural.
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U tom procesu otvoriti će se otprilike milijun dobrih radnih mjesta, većinom u ruralnim krajevima.
05:44
And protect another million jobs now at risk, mainly in auto-making.
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I zaštititi još milijun ugroženih radnih mjesta, pretežno u auto industriji.
05:48
And we'll also get returns over 150 billion dollars a year.
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I zaraditi povrat od preko 150 milijardi dolara na godinu.
05:52
So that's a very handsome return.
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To je prilično dobar povrat.
05:54
It's financeable in the private capital market.
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I može se financirati iz tržišta privatnog kapitala.
05:57
But if you want it for the reasons I just mentioned,
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No ako to želite iz razloga koje sam upravo spomenuo,
05:59
to happen sooner and with higher confidence,
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da se dogode prije i sa većom razinom pouzdanosti,
06:03
then -- and also to expand choice and manage risk --
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onda -- isto tako proširiti izbor i kontrolirati rizik --
06:07
then you might like some light-handed public policies
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onda bi vam se svidjele neke "meke" javne politike
06:10
that support rather than distorting or opposing the business logic.
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koje podržavaju, radije nego da se opiru ili suprostavljaju logici tržišta.
06:15
And these policies work fine without taxes, subsidies or mandates.
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A te politike rade sasvim dobro i bez poreza, poticaja ili mandata.
06:20
They make a little net money for the treasury.
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Stvarale bi mali neto prihod državnoj riznici.
06:22
They have a broad trans-ideological appeal,
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Imale bi širok trans-ideološki utjecaj,
06:24
and because we want them actually to happen,
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i zato jer želimo da se zapravo dogode,
06:26
we figured out ways to do them
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smislili smo načine kako to napraviti
06:29
that do not require much, if any, federal legislation,
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koji ne zahtijevaju puno, ako uopće, federalne legislative.
06:35
and can, indeed, be done administratively or at a state level.
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I mogu biti učinjene administrativno ili na razini pojedine države.
06:39
Just to illustrate what to do about the nub of the problem,
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Ilustrirati ću vam što bi trebalo napraviti s dijelom problema,
06:43
namely, light vehicles,
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i to, lakim vozilima,
06:45
here are four ultra-light carbon-composite concept cars with low drag,
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ovdje vidite četiri koncepta načinjena od ultra-lakih karbonskih materijala s niskim otporom zraka
06:50
and all but the one at the upper left have hybrid drive.
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i sva, osim vozila gore lijevo, su hibridna vozila.
06:54
You can sort of have it all with these things.
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S ovim vozilima možete imati gotovo sve.
06:56
For example, this Opel two-seater
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Na primjer, ovaj Opel roadster
06:59
does 155 miles an hour at 94 miles a gallon.
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ide 250 km/h i troši 3 litre na 100km.
07:03
This muscle car from Toyota: 408 horsepower in an ultra-light
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Ova sportska Toyota: 408 konja u ultra lakom pakiranju
07:08
that does zero to 60 in well under four seconds,
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koja ide od 0 do 100km/h ispod 4 sekunde,
07:10
and still gets 32 miles a gallon. I'll say more later about this.
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i troši samo 8 litara na 100km. No o tome kasnije.
07:15
And in the upper left, a pioneering effort 14 years ago by GM --
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U gornjem lijevom kutu, pionirski rad od prije 14 godina GM-a,
07:20
84 miles a gallon without even using a hybrid, in a four-seater.
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s potrošnjom od 3.3 litre na 100 km bez hibridnog pogona i četiri sjedala.
07:23
Well, saving that fuel, 69 percent of the fuel in light vehicles
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Štednjom tog goriva, 69% goriva u lakom vozilu
07:27
costs about 57 cents per saved gallon.
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košta oko 57 centi po ušteđenom galonu. (galon=4.5 litre)
07:30
But it's even a better deal for heavy trucks,
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Još su bolji rezultati za šlepere,
07:32
where you save a similar amount at 25 cents a gallon,
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gdje se uštedi slična količina goriva za 25 centi po galonu,
07:36
with better aerodynamics and tires and engines, and so on,
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s boljom aerodinamikom, gumama, motorom i tako dalje.
07:39
and taking out weight so you can put it into payload.
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Štedeći na težini vozila povećava se prostor za robu.
07:42
So you can double efficiency with a 60 percent internal rate of return.
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Tako se dupla efikasnost sa 60% interne stope povrata.
07:47
Then you can go even further, almost tripling efficiency
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Možete ići i dalje, gotovo triplicirajući efikasnost
07:51
with some operational improvements,
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s nekim operativnim poboljšanjima,
07:53
double the big haulers' margins.
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dvostrukim povećanjem dimenzija velikih šlepera.
07:55
And we intend to use those numbers to create demand pull, and flip the market.
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I mi smo namjeravali tim brojkama stvoriti potražnju te preokrenuti tržište.
07:59
In the airplane business, it's again a similar story
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U zračnom prijevozu je slična priča
08:04
where the first 20 percent fuel saving is free,
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gdje je prvih 20% uštede na gorivu besplatno,
08:07
as Boeing is now demonstrating in its new Dreamliner.
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kako je i demonstrirao Boeing u svom novom Dreamlineru.
08:10
But then the next generation of planes saves about half.
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Onda sljedeća generacija zrakoplova štedi oprilike 50%.
08:14
Again, much cheaper than buying the fuel.
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Ponovo, bitno jeftinije nego kupovati gorivo.
08:17
And if you go over the next 15 years or so to a blended-wing body,
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Ako se u sljedećih 15 godina prijeđe na zrakoplov koji je u osnovi jednokrilni,
08:21
kind of a flying wing with internal engines,
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s motorima unutar tijela zrakoplova,
08:25
then you get about a factor three efficiency improvement
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onda se efikasnost poveća za tri puta
08:29
at comparable or lower cost.
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s istom ili manjom cijenom koštanja.
08:31
Let me focus a minute on the light vehicles, the cars and light trucks,
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Dopustite da se na trenutak fokusiram na laka vozila, automobile i lake kamione.
08:35
because we all know the most about those;
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Jer o njima znamo najviše,
08:37
probably everybody here drives one.
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vjerojatno svaki od vas ovdje vozi jedan.
08:40
And yet we may not realize that in a standard sedan,
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Pa ipak ne uviđamo kako u standardnom automobilu,
08:43
of all the fuel energy you feed into the car,
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od svog goriva koje se natoči u vozilo,
08:46
seven-eighths never gets to the wheels;
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sedam osmina nikad ne dođe do kotača,
08:48
it's lost first in the engine, idling at zero miles a gallon,
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najprije se potroši u motoru, kada je isti u praznom hodu,
08:52
the power train and accessories.
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pa u sustavu prijenosa i dodatnoj opremi vozila.
08:55
So then of the energy that does get to the wheels,
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Pa tako od energije koja dođe do kotača,
08:58
only an eighth of it, half of that, goes to heat the tires on the road,
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samo osmina, pola od toga, ide na zagrijavanje guma na cesti,
09:01
or to heat the air the car pushes aside.
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ili na savladavanje otpora zraka.
09:03
And only this little bit, only six percent
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A samo ovaj mali dio, samo 6%
09:05
actually ends up accelerating the car
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u stvari ubrzava vozilo
09:08
and then heating the brakes when you stop.
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i onda zagrijava kočnice kada kočite.
09:10
In fact, since 95 percent of the weight you're moving is the car not the driver,
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U osnovi, pošto 95% težine koju koju vozimo nije vozač,
09:13
less than one percent of the fuel energy ends up moving the driver.
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manje od 1% energije goriva koristimo za prijevoz osobe.
09:16
This is not very gratifying
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To i nije zadovoljavajuće
09:18
after more than a century of devoted engineering effort.
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poslije više od stoljeća predanoga rada inženjera.
09:21
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
09:22
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
09:23
Moreover, three-fourths of the fuel use is caused by the weight of the car.
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Štoviše, ¾ potrošnje goriva uzrokuje sama težina vozila.
09:29
And it's obvious from the diagram that every unit of energy you save at the wheels
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A očito je iz dijagrama kako od svake jedinice energije koju uštedite na kotačima
09:34
is going to avoid wasting another seven units of energy
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izbjegnuti će se bespotrebno trošenje sedam jedinica
09:37
getting that energy to the wheels.
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koje se izgube prema kotača.
09:39
So there's huge leverage for making the car a lot lighter.
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To je veliki poticaj da se vozila rade puno lakša.
09:43
And the reason this has not been very seriously examined before
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A razlog zašto ovo nije prije ispitano ozbiljno
09:46
is there was a common assumption in the industry that --
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jest zajednička pretpostavka industrije kako
09:50
well, then it might not be safe if you got whacked by a heavy car,
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onda ne bi bili sigurni u sudaru s teškim vozilom,
09:53
and it would cost a lot more to make,
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i koštao bi puno više za proizvodnju,
09:55
because the only way we know how to make cars much lighter
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jer je jedini način na koji znamo raditi vozila puno lakšim
09:57
was to use expensive light metals like aluminum and magnesium.
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upotreba skupih lakih metala poput aluminija i magnezija.
10:01
But these objections are now vanishing through advances in materials.
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No napretkom razvoja materijala takve opaske sada gube smisao.
10:05
For example, we use a lot of carbon-fiber composites
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Na primjer, kompozitni materijali od karbonskih vlakana se koriste
10:09
in sporting goods.
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u sportskoj opremi.
10:11
And it turns out that these are quite remarkable for safety.
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I ispostavilo se kako su izuzetno sigurni.
10:16
Here's a handmade McLaren SLR carbon car that got t-boned by a Golf.
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Na slici vidite McLaren SLR od karbonskih vlakana u kojeg je udario Golf.
10:21
The Golf was totaled.
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Na golfu je totalna šteta.
10:23
The McLaren just popped off and scratched the side panel.
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McLaren je malo udubljen i izgreban.
10:26
They'll pop it back on and fix the scratch later.
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Samo će poravnati i popraviti ogrebotine.
10:29
But if this McLaren were to run into a wall at 65 miles an hour,
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Ali da se ovaj McLaren zaleti u zid pri brzini od 100km/h,
10:32
the entire crash energy would be absorbed
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cijelu energiju sudara bi apsorbiralo
10:35
by a couple of woven carbon-fiber composite cones,
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par tuljaca od pletenih karbonskih vlakana,
10:38
weighing a total of 15 pounds, hidden in the front end.
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koji zajedno teže 7kg i skriveni su naprijeda u vozilu.
10:42
Because these materials could actually absorb
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S obzirom da ti materijali mogu absorbirati
10:44
six to 12 times as much energy per pound as steel,
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6 do 12 puta više energije nego čelik iste težine,
10:48
and do so a lot more smoothly.
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i to puno uglađenije.
10:50
And this means we've just cracked the conundrum of safety and weight.
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To znači da smo upravo riješili probleme sigurnosti i težine.
10:55
We could make cars bigger, which is protective, but make them light.
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Mogli bi izrađivati veća vozila, zbog sigurnosti, s malom masom.
11:02
Whereas if we made them heavy, they'd be both hostile and inefficient.
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S druge strane kada bi ih izradili teškim, bila bi nesigurnija i neefikasna.
11:06
And when you make them light in the right way,
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A kada ih se napravi lakšim, na pravi način,
11:08
that can be simpler and cheaper to make.
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mogu biti jednostavnija i jeftinija za proizvodnju.
11:13
You can end up saving money, and lives, and oil, all at the same time.
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Možemo uštedjeti novce, naftu i spasiti živote sve u isto vrijeme.
11:18
I showed here two years ago
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Prije dvije godine sam vam pokazao
11:20
a little bit about a design of your basic, uncompromised,
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neke sitnice o dizajnu osnovnog, beskompromisnog,
11:24
quintupled-efficiency suburban-assault vehicle --
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pet puta efikasnijeg vozila za napad na predgrađe --
11:29
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
11:30
-- and this is a complete virtual design
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-- a to je bio potpuno virtualni dizajn
11:35
that is production-costed manufacturable.
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koji se može proizvoditi po normalnim cijenama.
11:38
And the process needed to make it
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A proces koji je potreban za izradu
11:40
is actually coming toward the market quite nicely.
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dolazi na tržište prilično dobro.
11:43
We figured out a kind of a digital inkjet printer
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Smislili smo neku vrstu digitalnog inkjet printera
11:46
for this very stiff, strong, carbon-composite material,
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za ovaj čvrst, snažan, karbonsko kompozitni materijal,
11:52
and then ways to thermoform it,
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i načine za njegovo termo-formiranje,
11:54
because it's a combination of carbon and nylon,
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jer je kombinacija ugljičnih vlakana i najlona,
11:57
into whatever complex shapes you want,
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u bilo koji složeni oblik koji želite,
12:00
like the one just shown at the auto show by one of the tier-one suppliers.
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poput pokazanih na auto sajmu od jednog proizvođača.
12:04
And the manufacturing you can do this way gets radically simplified.
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A proizvodnja na taj način postaje radikalno jednostavna.
12:08
Because the auto body has only, say, 14 parts, instead of 100, 150.
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Jer tijelo automobila ima samo, ponavljam, samo 14 dijelova umjesto 100, 150.
12:13
Each one is formed by one fairly cheap die set,
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Svaki dio je oblikovan pomoću jeftine preše,
12:16
instead of four expensive ones for stamping steel.
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umjesto četiri skupe preše za čelik.
12:19
Each of the parts can be easily lifted with no hoist.
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Svaki dio se može lako podići i bez dizalice.
12:24
They snap together like a kid's toy.
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Slažu se zajedno poput dječje igračke.
12:26
So you got rid of the body shop.
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Tako ste se riješili karoserijske radionice.
12:28
And if you want, you can lay color in the mold, and get rid of the paint shop.
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A po želji se može nanijeti boja direktno u kalup i tako se riješiti lakirnice.
12:31
Those are the two hardest and costliest parts of making a car.
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A to su dva najteža i najskuplja dijela proizvodnje vozila.
12:34
So you end up with at least two-fifths lower capital intensity
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Tako možete imati barem dvije petine manja ulaganja
12:37
than the leanest plant in the industry, which GM has in Lansing.
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nego najjeftinija tvornica auto industrije, koju ima GM u Lansingu.
12:42
The plant also gets smaller.
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Površina tvornice se također smanjuje.
12:44
Now, when you go through a similar analysis for every way we use oil,
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Kada napravite sličnu analizu za sve što koristi naftu,
12:48
including buildings, industry, feedstocks and so on,
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uključujući građevine, industriju, stoku, itd.
12:51
you find that of the 28 million barrels a day
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shvatite kako od 28 milijuna barela dnevno
12:54
the government says we will need in 2025,
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za koje vlada kaže da ćemo trebati 2025,
12:57
well, about eight of that can be removed by efficiency by then,
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osam barela se do tada može maknuti s boljom efikasnošću,
13:02
with another seven still being saved as the vehicle stocks turn over,
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s još sedam ušteđenih putem prihoda od dionica autoindustrije,
13:06
at an average cost of only 12 bucks a barrel,
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po srednjoj cijeni od 12 dolara za barel,
13:09
instead of 26 for buying the oil.
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umjesto 26 za kupovanje nafte.
13:11
And then another six can be made robustly, competitively,
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A sljedećih šest se može proizvoditi pouzdano, kompetitivno,
13:16
from cellulosic ethanol and a little bio-diesel,
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iz celuloznog etanola i malo bio-dizela,
13:19
without interfering at all with the water or land needs of crop production.
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bez da utječemo na vodu i zemlju potrebnu za poljoprivredu.
13:23
There is a huge amount of gas to be saved,
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Velika količina goriva se može uštediti,
13:26
about half the projected gas at about an eighth of its price.
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otprilike pola procijenjene količine za osminu cijene nafte
13:30
And here are some no-brainer substitutions of it, with lots left over.
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A ovdje su neke jednostavne zamijene za naftu, kojih imamo viška.
13:34
So much, in fact, that after you've handled the domestic oil forecast
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Dovoljno da, nakon šta smo se pozabavili procijenjenom količinom nafte iz domaćih izvora
13:41
from areas already approved,
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koji se nalaze na već odobrenim područjima,
13:43
you have only this little bit left, and let's see how we can meet that,
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ostao je samo taj mali dio, i hajde da vidimo kako možemo to riješiti,
13:46
because there's a pretty flexible menu of ways.
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jer imamo prilično fleksibilan meni mogućih rješenja.
13:49
We could, of course, buy more efficiency.
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Mogli bi, naravno, kupovati više efikasnosti.
13:51
Maybe you ought to buy efficiency at 26 bucks instead of 12.
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Možda bi trebalo kupovati po cijeni od 26 umjesto 12 dolara.
13:55
Or wait to capture the second half of it.
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Ili pričekati da uhvatimo drugi dio.
13:57
Or we could, of course, just get this little bit
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Mogli bi, naravno, tu malu količinu
13:59
by continuing to import some Canadian and Mexican oil,
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uvoziti iz Kanade i Meksika,
14:02
or the ethanol the Brazilians would love to sell us.
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ili etanol kojeg bi nam Brazilci voljeli prodati,
14:05
But they'll sell it to Japan and China instead,
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no prodaju ga Japanu i Kini,
14:07
because we have tariff barriers to protect our corn farmers, and they don't.
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jer imamo carine koje štite naše proizvođače kukuruza, dok oni nemaju.
14:11
Or we could use the saved gas directly to cover all of this balance,
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Ili bi mogli koristiti ušteđeno gorivo direktno da se pokrije razlika,
14:16
or if we used it as hydrogen, which is more profitable and efficient,
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ako bi koristili vodik, koji je profitabilniji i efikasniji,
14:19
we'd get rid of the domestic oil too.
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riješili bi se i domaće nafte.
14:21
And that doesn't even count, for example,
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A u to nismo ubrojili, na primjer,
14:23
that available land in the Dakotas can cost effectively
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dostupnu zemlju u Dakoti, koja može jeftino
14:26
make enough wind power to run every highway vehicle in the country.
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proizvoditi dovoljno struje iz vjetrenjača da napaja sva vozila u zemlji.
14:29
So we have lots of options.
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Imamo puno opcija.
14:31
And the choice of menu and timing is quite flexible.
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A izbor i tempiranje su dosta fleksibilni.
14:35
Now, to make this happen quicker and with higher confidence,
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Sada, kako bi to postigli brže i s većom pouzdanosti,
14:38
there is a few ways government could help.
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vlada može pomoći na nekoliko načina.
14:40
For example, fee-bates, a combination of a fee and a rebate
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Na primjer, kombinacijom poticaja i penala
14:45
in any size class of vehicle you want,
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u bilo kojoj klasi vozila,
14:48
can increase the price of inefficient vehicles
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možete povećati cijenu neefikasnih vozila
14:53
and correspondingly pay you a rebate for efficient vehicles.
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i istovremeno poticati kupovinu efikasnih vozila.
14:57
You're not paid to change size class.
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Ovdje niste plaćeni za promjenu klase vozila.
14:59
You are paid to pick efficiency within a size class,
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Plaćeni ste da izaberete efikasnost u istoj klasi,
15:03
in a way equivalent to looking at all fourteen years of life-cycle fuel savings
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ekvivalentna s 14 godina standardne štednje u gorivu
15:08
rather than just the first two or three.
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nego samo s dvije ili tri.
15:10
This expands choice rapidly in the market,
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To naglo širi izbor na tržištu,
15:12
and actually makes more money for automakers as well.
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i donosi veću dobit autoindustriji.
15:15
I'd like to deal with the lack of affordable personal mobility in this country
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Htio bih vam skrenuti pažnju na nedostatak pristupačnih novih osobnih vozila,
15:20
by making it very cheaply possible for low-income families
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radeći ih jeftino omogućili bi obiteljima niže platežne moći
15:24
to get efficient, reliable, warranted new cars
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da kupe efikasno, pouzdano, vozilo pod garancijom
15:28
that they could otherwise never get.
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koje si inače ne bi mogli priuštiti.
15:30
And for each car so financed, scrap almost one clunker,
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A za svako vozilo tako financirano, možete zdrobiti neku krntiju,
15:34
preferably the dirtiest ones.
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po mogućnosti one najprljave.
15:36
This creates a new million-car-a-year market for Detroit
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To bi stvorilo novo milijun-vozila-na-godinu tržište za Detroit
15:40
from customers they weren't going to get otherwise,
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za mušterije koje prije nisu ni imali,
15:42
because they weren't creditworthy and could never afford a new car.
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jer nisu bili kreditno sposobni i nikad si ne bi mogli priuštiti novi auto.
15:45
And Detroit will make money on every unit.
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A Detroit će zaraditi na svakom vozilu.
15:47
It turns out that if, say, African-American and white households
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Pokazalo se kada bi afro-američka i bijela domaćinstva u SAD-u
15:50
had the same car ownership,
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imala isti broj vozila u vlasništvu,
15:52
it would cut employment disparity about in half
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to bi smanjilo razlike u mogućnostima zaposlenja na pola
15:56
by providing better access to job opportunities.
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omogućujući bolji pristup mogućim prilikama za posao.
15:58
So this is a huge social win, too.
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To bi bila i velika socijalna pobjeda.
16:00
Governments buy hundreds of thousands of cars a year.
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Države kupuju stotine tisuća automobila godišnje.
16:03
There are smart ways to buy them and to aggregate that purchasing power
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Postoje pametni načini kupovine i akumuliranja kupovne moći
16:07
to bring very efficient vehicles into the market faster.
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za omogućavanje bržeg proboja efikasnih vozila na tržište.
16:10
And we could even do an X Prize-style golden carrot
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Mogla bi se organizirati neka vrsta nagrade
16:13
that's worth stretching further for.
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koja bi još više potakla tržište.
16:15
For example, a billion-dollar prize for the first U.S. automaker
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Na primjer milijarda dolara prvom proizvođaču automobila
16:19
to sell 200,000 really advanced vehicles, like some you saw earlier.
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koji proda više od 200,000 zbilja naprednih vozila, poput onih koje smo vidjeli.
16:24
Then the legacy airlines can't afford to buy the efficient new planes
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Zrakoplovne kompanije si ne mogu priuštiti nove, efikasne, zrakoplove.
16:29
they desperately need to cut their fuel bills,
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jer oni očajnički moraju smanjiti troškove goriva,
16:32
but if you felt philosophically you wanted to do anything about that,
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no ako bi zbilja htjeli poduzeti nešto oko toga,
16:35
there are ways to finance it.
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našli bi načine za financiranje.
16:37
And at the same time to scrap inefficient old planes,
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I u isto vrijeme "umiroviti" stare neefikasne zrakoplove,
16:41
so that if they were otherwise to come back in the air,
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jer ako bi ostali i dalje u upotrebi
16:44
they would waste more oil,
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samo bi trošili puno goriva,
16:46
and block the uptake of efficient, new planes.
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blokirajući tranziciju novim efikasnim zrakoplovima.
16:49
Those part inefficient planes
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Takvi neefikasni zrakoplovi
16:51
are worth more to society dead than alive.
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više vrijede društvu na otpadu nego u zraku.
16:53
We ought to take them out back and shoot them,
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Trebalo bi im polomiti krila
16:55
and put bounty hunters after them.
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ili poslati lovce na njih.
16:57
Then there's an important military role.
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Tu je i značajna uloga za vojsku.
17:00
That in creating the move to high-volume,
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Stvarajući potrebu da se prijeđe na masovnu,
17:04
low-cost commercial production of these kinds of materials,
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jeftinu proizvodnju takvih materijala,
17:07
or for that matter, ultra-light steels
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kao na primjer, ultra-laki čelici
17:09
that are a good backup technology,
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koji su dobra rezervna tehnologija,
17:12
the military can do the trick it did
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vojska bi mogla napraviti isti trik kao šta je
17:15
in turning DARPAnet into the Internet.
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napravila s DARPAnetom pretvorivši ga u Internet.
17:17
Just turn it over to the private sector, and we have an Internet.
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Prepustila je tehnologiju privatnom sektoru, a mi smo dobili Internet.
17:21
The same for GPS.
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Isto vrijedi i za GPS.
17:24
The same for the modern semi-conductor industry.
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I za modernu poluvodičku industriju.
17:26
That is, military science and technology that they need
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Tako su znanost i tehnologija koje su potrebne vojsci
17:30
can create the advanced materials-industrial cluster
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mogu stvoriti klaster industrije naprednih materijala
17:33
that transforms its civilian economy and gets the country off oil,
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koja bi preobratila civilnu ekonomiju i skinula zemlju s nafte.
17:36
which would be a huge contribution to eliminating conflict over oil
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To bi bio velik doprinos eliminaciji sukoba oko nafte
17:39
and advancing national and global security.
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poboljšavajući nacionalnu i globalnu sigurnost.
17:41
Then we need to retool the car industry and do retraining,
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Potom moramo obučiti i preoblikovati auto industriju,
17:46
and shift the convergence of the energy and ag-value chains
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pomaknuti konvergenciju energije i poljoprivrede
17:50
to shift faster from hydrocarbons to carbohydrates,
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na bržu tranziciju s ugljikovodika na ugljikohidrate,
17:53
and get out of our own way in other ways.
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i maknuti same sebe iz utabane staze.
17:55
And make the transition to more efficient vehicles go faster.
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Omogućavajući bržu tranziciju na efikasnija vozila.
18:00
But here's how the whole thing fits together.
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Ovako bi cijela stvar išla zajedno.
18:02
Instead of official forecasts of oil use
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Umjesto službenih procjena potrošnje nafte
18:05
and oil imports going forever up,
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i povećavanja uvoza iste,
18:07
they can turn down with the 12 dollars a barrel efficiency,
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može se gurnuti prema dolje s 12 dolara po barelu efikasnosti,
18:11
down steeply by adding the supply-side substitutions at 18 bucks,
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još snažnije ako se dodamo zamjene nafti za 18 dolara,
18:15
all implemented at slower rates than we've done before when we paid attention.
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sve implementirano manjom brzinom nego prije kada smo obraćali pažnju.
18:19
And if we start adding tranches of hydrogen in there,
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Ako još dodamo vodik u sustav,
18:22
we are rapidly off imports and completely off oil in the 2040s.
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izostaje potreba za uvozom i potpuna sloboda od nafte do 2040.
18:26
And the one thing I'd like to point out here is that we've done this before.
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Htio bih istaknuti kako smo to već jednom napravili.
18:30
In this eight-year period, 1977 to 85, when we last paid attention,
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U periodu od osam godina od 1977. do 1985. kada smo zadnji put pazili,
18:35
the economy grew 27 percent, oil use fell 17 percent,
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ekonomija je porasla za 27% a upotreba nafte pala za 17%.
18:40
oil imports fell 50 percent, oil imports from the Persian Gulf fell 87 percent.
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Uvoz nafte je pao 50%. Uvoz iz perzijskog zaljeva je pao za 87%.
18:45
They would have been gone if we'd kept that up one more year.
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Da smo ustrajali na tom putu uvoz bi nestao za godinu dana.
18:48
Well, that was with very old technologies and delivery methods.
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A to sve sa starom tehnologijom i metodama transporta.
18:52
We could rerun that play a lot better now.
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Sada bi mogli puno bolje odigrati tu istu partiju.
18:55
And yet what we proved then is the U.S. has more market power than OPEC.
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A onda smo bili dokazali kako SAD ima veći udio u tržištu nego OPEC.
18:58
Ours is on the demand side.
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Mi smo na strani potražnje.
19:00
We are the Saudi Arabia of "nega-barrels." (Laughter)
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Mi smo Saudijska Arabija anti-barela.
19:02
We can use less oil faster than they can conveniently sell less oil.
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Možemo koristiti manje nafte brže nego nam oni mogu manje prodati.
19:07
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
19:14
Whatever your reason for wanting to do this,
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Koji god da je vaš razlog da želite ovo,
19:17
whether you're concerned about national security or price volatility --
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bilo da ste zabrinuti za nacionalnu sigurnost ili nestabilnost cijena --
19:20
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
19:21
-- or jobs, or the planet, or your grand-kids,
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-- ili sigurnost poslova, zabrinuti ste za planet ili vaše unuke,
19:24
it seems to me that this is an oil endgame
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čini mi se kko bi ovu igru kraja nafte
19:27
that we should all be playing to win.
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trebali igrati da pobijedimo.
19:29
Please download your copy, and thank you very much.
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Slobodno skinite vlastitu kopiju knjige i hvala na pažnji.
19:32
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Amory Lovins - Physicist, energy guruIn his new book, "Reinventing Fire," Amory Lovins shares ingenious ideas for the next era of energy.
Why you should listen
Amory Lovins was worried (and writing) about energy long before global warming was making the front -- or even back -- page of newspapers. Since studying at Harvard and Oxford in the 1960s, he's written dozens of books, and initiated ambitious projects -- cofounding the influential, environment-focused Rocky Mountain Institute; prototyping the ultra-efficient Hypercar -- to focus the world's attention on alternative approaches to energy and transportation.
His critical thinking has driven people around the globe -- from world leaders to the average Joe -- to think differently about energy and its role in some of our biggest problems: climate change, oil dependency, national security, economic health, and depletion of natural resources.
Lovins offers solutions as well. His new book and site, Reinventing Fire, offers actionable solutions for four energy-intensive sectors of the economy: transportation, buildings, industry and electricity. Lovins has always focused on solutions that conserve natural resources while also promoting economic growth; Texas Instruments and Wal-Mart are just two of the mega-corporations he has advised on improving energy efficiency.
Amory Lovins | Speaker | TED.com