TED2005
Amory Lovins: Winning the oil endgame
Amory Lovins 談終結石油之術
Filmed:
Readability: 4.3
1,014,474 views
Amory Lovins 在這場精彩的演說中，簡述一個可以使讓美國脫離石油重度依賴與復甦經濟的簡單計劃。
Amory Lovins - Physicist, energy guru
In his new book, "Reinventing Fire," Amory Lovins shares ingenious ideas for the next era of energy. Full bio
In his new book, "Reinventing Fire," Amory Lovins shares ingenious ideas for the next era of energy. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
The old story about climate protection is that it's costly,
0
0
5000
按以前的說法，氣候保護是個花錢的差事
00:17
or it would have been done already.
1
5000
2000
要不然的話早就著手進行了。
00:19
So government needs to make us do something painful to fix it.
2
7000
3000
所以政府需要我們做點犧牲來來搞定它。
00:22
The new story about climate protection
3
10000
2000
現在對氣候保護有個新看法
00:24
is that it's not costly, but profitable.
4
12000
2000
它不僅不花錢，而且還能營利。
00:26
This was a simple sign error,
5
14000
2000
這是一個簡單的錯誤癥候
00:28
because it's cheaper to save fuel than to buy fuel,
6
16000
3000
原因就在於，省油比買油要便宜，
00:31
as is well known to companies that do it all the time --
7
19000
4000
眾所周知，很多企業也都一直這樣做。
00:35
for example, Dupont, SD micro electronics.
8
23000
3000
比如，杜邦、SD微電子。
00:38
Many other firms -- IBM -- are reducing their energy intensity
9
26000
5000
很多其他公司，像是IBM，正在降低他們的能源密集度，
00:43
routinely six percent a year by fixing up their plants,
10
31000
2000
通過改進他們的工廠，每年一般能減少6%的消耗
00:45
and they get their money back in two or three years.
11
33000
3000
兩到三年內就能收回投資。
00:48
That's called a profit.
12
36000
1000
這就是利潤。
00:49
Now, similarly, the old story about oil is that if we wanted to save very much of it,
13
37000
7000
現在，對於石油我們有著同樣的舊思維。如果我們想節約石油
00:56
it would be expensive, or we would have done it already,
14
44000
4000
那就要花很多錢，要不我們早就成功了，
01:00
because markets are essentially perfect.
15
48000
2000
因為市場基本完善。
01:02
If, of course, that were true, there would be no innovation,
16
50000
3000
當然，如果這種說法是真的，那這個世界上就不會有創新了，
01:05
and nobody could make any money.
17
53000
2000
也沒有人能賺到錢了。
01:07
But the new story about oil
18
55000
2000
但是，現在對石油有個新看法
01:09
is the government doesn't have to force us to do painful things to get off oil --
19
57000
4000
政府不用再強迫我們來痛苦地戒掉石油
01:13
not just incrementally, but completely --
20
61000
2000
這裡說的不僅是逐步減少使用，而是徹底地
01:15
quite the contrary. The United States, for example,
21
63000
4000
在全國範圍內停止使用石油。比如說，在美國
01:19
can completely eliminate its use of oil
22
67000
3000
能夠做到完全不用石油
01:22
and rejuvenate the economy at the same time,
23
70000
3000
還能同時促進經濟發展，
01:25
led by business for profit,
24
73000
2000
創造商業利潤，
01:27
because it's so much cheaper to save and substitute for the oil
25
75000
3000
因為比起繼續買石油，節約和尋找替代燃料
01:30
than to keep on buying it.
26
78000
2000
要便宜得多。
01:32
This process will also be catalyzed by the military
27
80000
3000
這一過程同樣需要由軍隊合作加以推動
01:35
for its own reasons of combat effectiveness and preventing conflict,
28
83000
4000
因為他們有著強大的戰鬥力和預防衝突的能力
01:39
particularly over oil.
29
87000
2000
尤其是在石油問題上。
01:41
This thesis is set out in a book called "Winning the Oil Endgame"
30
89000
5000
這個論點是在《贏下石油之戰的最後博弈》中提出的
01:46
that four colleagues and I wrote
31
94000
2000
這本書是我和四個同事共同編寫，
01:48
and have posted for free at Oilendgame.com --
32
96000
4000
而且大家可以在Oilendgame.com上找到免費資源。
01:52
about 170,000 downloads so far.
33
100000
3000
目前差不多有17萬人下載過。
01:55
And it was co-sponsored by the Pentagon --
34
103000
2000
這本書由Pentagon監製
01:57
it's independent, it's peer-reviewed
35
105000
2000
獨立發行，經過了同行評審
01:59
and all of the backup calculations are transparently posted for your perusal.
36
107000
5000
所有的備份資料都是透明的，公開的，大家可以去查閱。
02:04
Now, a bit of economic history, I think, may be helpful here.
37
112000
4000
現在講一點經濟史，也許會對大家有所幫助。
02:09
Around 1850, one of the biggest U.S. industries was whaling.
38
117000
3000
1850年左右，捕鯨是美國最大的產業之一。
02:12
And whale oil lit practically every building.
39
120000
3000
幾乎所有建築燃料都是鯨油。
02:15
But in the nine years before Drake struck oil, in 1859,
40
123000
3000
但是在1859年，在美國第一口油井開採九年之前，
02:18
at least five-sixths of that whale oil-illuminating market disappeared,
41
126000
4000
由於煤油和煤氣的競爭，以鯨油為燃料的照明市場受到致命打擊，
02:22
thanks to fatal competitors, chiefly oil and gas made from coal,
42
130000
6000
至少六分之五的目標市場被搶下。
02:28
to which the whalers had not been paying attention.
43
136000
3000
之前捕鯨者並沒有注意到這些對手。
02:31
So, very unexpectedly, they ran out of customers
44
139000
4000
因此，他們萬萬沒想到，鯨魚還能獵殺，
02:35
before they ran out of whales.
45
143000
2000
客戶群跑光了。
02:37
The remnant whale populations were saved by technological innovators
46
145000
4000
科技創新和追求最大利潤的資本家救了
02:41
and profit-maximizing capitalists.
47
149000
2000
那些漏網鯨魚。
02:43
(Laughter)
48
151000
2000
（笑聲）
02:46
And it's funny -- it feels a bit like this now for oil.
49
154000
3000
並且十分有趣的是——感覺有點像現在的石油
02:49
We've been spending the last few decades
50
157000
2000
我們過去已經花了幾十年的時間
02:51
accumulating a very powerful backlog of technologies
51
159000
3000
積累了非常強大的技術力量
02:54
for saving and substituting for oil,
52
162000
2000
用於節約石油和探索替代燃料
02:56
and no one had bothered to add them up before.
53
164000
3000
在以前沒人費心去探討這些問題
02:59
So when we did, we found some very surprising things.
54
167000
3000
所以我們研究時，就有了驚人的發現。
03:02
Now, there are two big reasons to be concerned about oil.
55
170000
4000
如今，石油問題變得越來越顯著，主要原因有兩大方面，
03:06
Both national competitiveness and national security are at risk.
56
174000
4000
即：國家競爭力威脅和國家安全威脅。
03:10
On the competitiveness front,
57
178000
2000
從競爭力角度講，
03:12
we all know that Toyota has more market cap than the big three put together.
58
180000
5000
我們都知道，豐田的市場佔有率比三大美國汽車商總和還高
03:17
And serious competition from Europe, from Korea,
59
185000
3000
還有其他強有力的競爭對手，來自歐洲的、韓國的、
03:20
and next is China, which will soon be a major net exporter of cars.
60
188000
5000
接下來還會有中國，因為它很快就會成為主要的汽車淨出口國。
03:25
How long do you think it will take before you can drive home your new
61
193000
3000
你覺得還得用多長時間，你就會開著
03:28
wally-badged Shanghai automotive super-efficient car?
62
196000
5000
上海生產的汽車回家? 這車的品質一流，超級省油。
03:34
Maybe a decade, according to my friends in Detroit.
63
202000
3000
在底特律的朋友說，也許要十年。
03:37
China has an energy policy
64
205000
2000
中國出臺一項能源政策
03:39
based on radical energy efficiency and leap-frog technology.
65
207000
3000
該政策以全新的高效能源和跨越式的技術作為基礎。
03:42
They're not going to export your uncle's Buick.
66
210000
3000
他們不會出口大排量車，
03:45
And after that comes India.
67
213000
2000
而之後還會有來自印度的競爭。
03:47
The point here is, these cars are going to be made super efficient.
68
215000
4000
關鍵的一點，這些車都會非常省油。
03:51
The question is, who will make them?
69
219000
2000
問題只是誰來製造它們。
03:53
Will we in the United States continue to import efficient cars to replace foreign oil,
70
221000
5000
我們美國會不會繼續以進口節能汽車來代替進口石油
03:58
or will we make efficient cars and import neither the oil nor the cars?
71
226000
4000
或者我們自己製造節能汽車，不再進口石油，也不再進口汽車。
04:02
That seems to make more sense.
72
230000
2000
這樣做看起來更有意義
04:04
The more we keep on using the oil, particularly the imported oil,
73
232000
6000
未來我們使用的石油越多，尤其是進口石油
04:10
the more we face a very obvious array of problems.
74
238000
3000
我們所面臨的問題將會越嚴重。
04:13
Our analysis assumes that they all cost nothing,
75
241000
2000
我們在分析中假設它們都沒有什麼成本
04:15
but nothing is not the right number.
76
243000
2000
並不是說真的沒有成本
04:17
It could well be enough to double the oil price, for example.
77
245000
3000
比如，這可能足以使汽油的價格上漲一倍
04:21
And one of the worst of these
78
249000
2000
其中最糟的事情之一就是
04:23
is what it does to our standing in the world
79
251000
3000
它會對我們在世界上的地位造成什麼影響
04:26
if other countries think that everything we do is about oil,
80
254000
4000
如果其他國家認為我們所做的一切只是為了獲得石油
04:30
if we have to treat countries that have oil
81
258000
2000
如果我們不得不把那些石油國
04:32
differently than countries that don't have oil.
82
260000
3000
和那些非石油國區別對待
04:35
And our military get quite unhappy
83
263000
4000
我們的軍隊會十分不高興
04:39
with having to stand guard on pipelines in Far-off-istan
84
267000
3000
因為他們不得不駐守在遙遠的伊斯坦前線。
04:42
when what they actually signed up for
85
270000
2000
因為他們參軍的真正意義
04:44
was to protect American citizens.
86
272000
2000
在於保衛美國人民
04:46
They don't like fighting over oil,
87
274000
2000
他們不喜歡為了石油而戰
04:48
they don't like being in the sands
88
276000
2000
他們不喜歡生活在沙漠裡
04:50
and they don't like where the oil money goes
89
278000
2000
他們不喜歡那些賣油的地方
04:52
and what sort of instability it creates.
90
280000
2000
以及由此產生的那些不安定狀況
04:54
Now, in order to avoid these problems,
91
282000
2000
如今，為了避免這些問題
04:56
whatever you think they're worth, it's actually not that complicated.
92
284000
3000
不管你怎樣想，它們都物有所值，實際上也沒有那麼複雜。
04:59
We can save half the oil by using it more efficiently,
93
287000
3000
通過更高效的使用方式，我們可以節省一半的石油，
05:02
at a cost of 12 dollars per saved barrel.
94
290000
4000
每桶油節省12美元，
05:06
And then we can replace the other half
95
294000
3000
然後我們可以將另外半桶油
05:09
with a combination of advanced bio-fuels and safe natural gas.
96
297000
4000
用先進生物燃料和安全天然氣的混合物來代替。
05:13
And that costs on average under 18 dollars a barrel.
97
301000
2000
每桶油的平均成本不到18美元
05:15
And compared with the official forecast,
98
303000
3000
相比之下官方的預測是
05:18
that oil will cost 26 dollars a barrel in 2025,
99
306000
3000
到2025年這樣的混合油成本為26美元
05:21
which is half of what we've been paying lately,
100
309000
2000
比現在的價格降低了一半
05:23
that will save 70 billion dollars a year, starting quite soon.
101
311000
5000
儘快著手，每年我們將省下700億美元
05:28
Now, in order to do this we need to invest about 180 billion dollars:
102
316000
5000
現在，為了實現這一計畫，我們需要大約1800億美元的投資
05:33
half of it to retool the car, truck and plane industries;
103
321000
3000
其中有一半用來重新裝備汽車，卡車和飛機工業。
05:36
half of it to build the advanced bio-fuel industry.
104
324000
2000
一半用來創建先進的生物燃料工業。
05:38
In the process, we will gain about a million good jobs, mainly rural.
105
326000
6000
在這一過程中，有100萬個好的就業機會集中產生在農村。
05:44
And protect another million jobs now at risk, mainly in auto-making.
106
332000
4000
並能保住另外100萬個岌岌可危的工作職位，這些職位主要集中在汽車製造業。
05:48
And we'll also get returns over 150 billion dollars a year.
107
336000
4000
而且每年我們還能收回超過1500億美元的投資
05:52
So that's a very handsome return.
108
340000
2000
所以這是一個很可觀的回報
05:54
It's financeable in the private capital market.
109
342000
3000
在私有資本主義市場上它有著很強的融資能力
05:57
But if you want it for the reasons I just mentioned,
110
345000
2000
如果你聽了我的解釋後想要加入，
05:59
to happen sooner and with higher confidence,
111
347000
4000
那就信心百倍地趕緊加入吧，
06:03
then -- and also to expand choice and manage risk --
112
351000
4000
——當然，同時要擴大選擇範圍，並且要評估風險——
06:07
then you might like some light-handed public policies
113
355000
3000
然後你可能會喜歡一些寬鬆的公共政策
06:10
that support rather than distorting or opposing the business logic.
114
358000
5000
這些政策並不扭曲或反對商業邏輯，而是對此表示贊同。
06:15
And these policies work fine without taxes, subsidies or mandates.
115
363000
5000
這些政策不錯: 沒有稅收、補貼、和法令干涉。
06:20
They make a little net money for the treasury.
116
368000
2000
它們能為國庫產生一些淨收益，
06:22
They have a broad trans-ideological appeal,
117
370000
2000
不論對哪個意識形態，它都有著廣泛的吸引力。
06:24
and because we want them actually to happen,
118
372000
2000
因為我們希望這一切成為現實
06:26
we figured out ways to do them
119
374000
3000
我們已經想好了怎樣去做
06:29
that do not require much, if any, federal legislation,
120
377000
5000
我們要求不多，如果有的話，就是聯邦立法。
06:35
and can, indeed, be done administratively or at a state level.
121
383000
4000
並能確確實實地落實在行政上或州級政策上。
06:39
Just to illustrate what to do about the nub of the problem,
122
387000
4000
剛才只是說明了核心問題應該怎麼辦，
06:43
namely, light vehicles,
123
391000
2000
也就是，製造輕型車輛
06:45
here are four ultra-light carbon-composite concept cars with low drag,
124
393000
5000
這裡有4個超輕型碳複合材料低阻力的概念車，
06:50
and all but the one at the upper left have hybrid drive.
125
398000
4000
除了左上角的，都有混合動力驅動
06:54
You can sort of have it all with these things.
126
402000
2000
可以說，你可以擁有上面提到的一切
06:56
For example, this Opel two-seater
127
404000
3000
比如說這個雙座的歐寶車
06:59
does 155 miles an hour at 94 miles a gallon.
128
407000
4000
每小時行駛155英里的話，一加侖油能跑94英里
07:03
This muscle car from Toyota: 408 horsepower in an ultra-light
129
411000
5000
這個是豐田的超輕型強力車型，408匹馬力
07:08
that does zero to 60 in well under four seconds,
130
416000
2000
很輕易就能在四秒內從0碼加速到60碼
07:10
and still gets 32 miles a gallon. I'll say more later about this.
131
418000
5000
一加侖油仍然能跑32公里。等一下我再說這個
07:15
And in the upper left, a pioneering effort 14 years ago by GM --
132
423000
5000
左上角的這個，是通用汽車14年前的先驅之作
07:20
84 miles a gallon without even using a hybrid, in a four-seater.
133
428000
3000
即使在沒有混合動力，四個座椅的情況下，每加侖能跑84英里
07:23
Well, saving that fuel, 69 percent of the fuel in light vehicles
134
431000
4000
那麼，按節省燃料算，輕型汽車能節省69%
07:27
costs about 57 cents per saved gallon.
135
435000
3000
每節省一加侖成本大約是57美分
07:30
But it's even a better deal for heavy trucks,
136
438000
2000
但是，重型卡車的話會更划算
07:32
where you save a similar amount at 25 cents a gallon,
137
440000
4000
節省的燃料差不多，每加侖只需25美分
07:36
with better aerodynamics and tires and engines, and so on,
138
444000
3000
還有更先進的空氣動力，輪胎和引擎等。
07:39
and taking out weight so you can put it into payload.
139
447000
3000
還解決了重量問題，因此你可以把它算進載重量
07:42
So you can double efficiency with a 60 percent internal rate of return.
140
450000
5000
所以它的內部收益率為60%，能夠取得雙重效益
07:47
Then you can go even further, almost tripling efficiency
141
455000
4000
然後你可以更進一步，改善經營運作
07:51
with some operational improvements,
142
459000
2000
將效益再提高一倍
07:53
double the big haulers' margins.
143
461000
2000
大的運輸商利潤能翻一倍
07:55
And we intend to use those numbers to create demand pull, and flip the market.
144
463000
4000
我們打算利用這些數字，拉動需求，扭轉市場趨勢
07:59
In the airplane business, it's again a similar story
145
467000
5000
在航空業務方面，情況也是這樣的。
08:04
where the first 20 percent fuel saving is free,
146
472000
3000
最初的節省的20%的燃料需要投入資金
08:07
as Boeing is now demonstrating in its new Dreamliner.
147
475000
3000
比如像現在波音公司新的夢幻客機
08:10
But then the next generation of planes saves about half.
148
478000
4000
但是下一代的飛機大約能節省一半。
08:14
Again, much cheaper than buying the fuel.
149
482000
3000
同樣，比購買燃料便宜多了
08:17
And if you go over the next 15 years or so to a blended-wing body,
150
485000
4000
如果你仔細審視一下未來15年，或者是所謂的混合翼結構
08:21
kind of a flying wing with internal engines,
151
489000
4000
就是那種有內置引擎的機翼
08:25
then you get about a factor three efficiency improvement
152
493000
4000
那麼你就有可能以相對較低的成本
08:29
at comparable or lower cost.
153
497000
2000
把你的效益提高三倍
08:31
Let me focus a minute on the light vehicles, the cars and light trucks,
154
499000
4000
下面我用一分鐘來集中談一下輕型汽車，轎車和輕型卡車。
08:35
because we all know the most about those;
155
503000
2000
由於我們對這三種車型比較熟悉
08:37
probably everybody here drives one.
156
505000
3000
在座的可能都是開著這幾種車來的
08:40
And yet we may not realize that in a standard sedan,
157
508000
3000
然而我們可能沒有意識到，在標準汽車內部
08:43
of all the fuel energy you feed into the car,
158
511000
3000
你為車所加的那些油的能量
08:46
seven-eighths never gets to the wheels;
159
514000
2000
八分之七都沒用在車輪子上
08:48
it's lost first in the engine, idling at zero miles a gallon,
160
516000
4000
首先，浪費在引擎內部，還沒起步，
08:52
the power train and accessories.
161
520000
3000
動力系統和配件就費了一加侖油
08:55
So then of the energy that does get to the wheels,
162
523000
3000
接著能量才開始驅動車輪
08:58
only an eighth of it, half of that, goes to heat the tires on the road,
163
526000
3000
只占總能量的1/8，其中一半還轉化為輪胎摩擦地面的熱量
09:01
or to heat the air the car pushes aside.
164
529000
2000
或者是汽車排放的熱氣
09:03
And only this little bit, only six percent
165
531000
2000
只有這一點點，只有百分之六的能量
09:05
actually ends up accelerating the car
166
533000
3000
在實際上起到了汽車加速的作用
09:08
and then heating the brakes when you stop.
167
536000
2000
然後在刹車時轉化為熱量
09:10
In fact, since 95 percent of the weight you're moving is the car not the driver,
168
538000
3000
事實上，由於車體的重量占了總重量的95%，
09:13
less than one percent of the fuel energy ends up moving the driver.
169
541000
3000
只有不到1%的燃料能量是用在載人上的
09:16
This is not very gratifying
170
544000
2000
但這讓人們不滿意，
09:18
after more than a century of devoted engineering effort.
171
546000
3000
因為我們為了改進技術忙了一百多年
09:21
(Laughter)
172
549000
1000
(笑聲)
09:22
(Applause)
173
550000
1000
(掌聲)
09:23
Moreover, three-fourths of the fuel use is caused by the weight of the car.
174
551000
6000
此外，四分之三的燃料都耗費在車體重量上
09:29
And it's obvious from the diagram that every unit of energy you save at the wheels
175
557000
5000
從圖表中明顯可以看出大家省的那一份油都省在車輪上了
09:34
is going to avoid wasting another seven units of energy
176
562000
3000
接下來我們要把浪費掉的另外七份省出來
09:37
getting that energy to the wheels.
177
565000
2000
都用到車輪子上
09:39
So there's huge leverage for making the car a lot lighter.
178
567000
4000
因此汽車大幅減重是一個十分重要的方面
09:43
And the reason this has not been very seriously examined before
179
571000
3000
而之前沒有認真研究這一點是因為
09:46
is there was a common assumption in the industry that --
180
574000
4000
在這一行有一個不成文的假設--
09:50
well, then it might not be safe if you got whacked by a heavy car,
181
578000
3000
就是，如果被重車撞了，車輕了會很不安全，
09:53
and it would cost a lot more to make,
182
581000
2000
這樣就需要花費更高的成本
09:55
because the only way we know how to make cars much lighter
183
583000
2000
因為我們所知道的，減輕車重的唯一方法
09:57
was to use expensive light metals like aluminum and magnesium.
184
585000
4000
就是使用像鎂、鋁這樣的昂貴輕金屬
10:01
But these objections are now vanishing through advances in materials.
185
589000
4000
但隨著材料的進步這些都已經不成問題了
10:05
For example, we use a lot of carbon-fiber composites
186
593000
4000
比如，我們使用了大量的碳纖維複合材料
10:09
in sporting goods.
187
597000
2000
製造體育用品。
10:11
And it turns out that these are quite remarkable for safety.
188
599000
5000
而事實證明這些都是十分安全的
10:16
Here's a handmade McLaren SLR carbon car that got t-boned by a Golf.
189
604000
5000
這裡是手工的邁凱輪單反碳纖維車，擁有高爾夫的T型骨架
10:21
The Golf was totaled.
190
609000
2000
高爾夫沒玩明白
10:23
The McLaren just popped off and scratched the side panel.
191
611000
3000
邁凱輪也出局了，僅僅抓住了其中的一點皮毛。
10:26
They'll pop it back on and fix the scratch later.
192
614000
3000
相信不久，它們會重新進入這一領域，彌補他們的損失。
10:29
But if this McLaren were to run into a wall at 65 miles an hour,
193
617000
3000
但是如果邁凱輪的這款車以65英里的時速撞到牆上
10:32
the entire crash energy would be absorbed
194
620000
3000
碰撞產生的全部能量都會被
10:35
by a couple of woven carbon-fiber composite cones,
195
623000
3000
一對有碳纖維複合編織而成的錐體所吸收
10:38
weighing a total of 15 pounds, hidden in the front end.
196
626000
4000
它重達15磅，隱藏在車體前端
10:42
Because these materials could actually absorb
197
630000
2000
因為在現實中每磅這樣的材料吸收的
10:44
six to 12 times as much energy per pound as steel,
198
632000
4000
能量，比同重量的鋼鐵要高出5到11倍
10:48
and do so a lot more smoothly.
199
636000
2000
而且要平穩順利的多
10:50
And this means we've just cracked the conundrum of safety and weight.
200
638000
5000
這意味著我們剛剛破獲了安全和重量的難題。
10:55
We could make cars bigger, which is protective, but make them light.
201
643000
7000
我們可以把汽車造的更大，更安全，但要減輕重量
11:02
Whereas if we made them heavy, they'd be both hostile and inefficient.
202
650000
4000
如果我們把車造的很沉，只會礙手礙腳，效率降低。
11:06
And when you make them light in the right way,
203
654000
2000
如果我們用正確的方式來減輕車重
11:08
that can be simpler and cheaper to make.
204
656000
5000
汽車製造將會變得更簡單，成本更低。
11:13
You can end up saving money, and lives, and oil, all at the same time.
205
661000
4000
同時，你不用再為省錢省油省時間煩惱了
11:18
I showed here two years ago
206
666000
2000
兩年前我就多多少少提到過
11:20
a little bit about a design of your basic, uncompromised,
207
668000
4000
一款你必不可少，不折不扣的，
11:24
quintupled-efficiency suburban-assault vehicle --
208
672000
5000
五倍車速郊區突擊車。
11:29
(Laughter)
209
677000
1000
(笑聲)
11:30
-- and this is a complete virtual design
210
678000
5000
而且這是一個全新的視覺設計
11:35
that is production-costed manufacturable.
211
683000
3000
屬於生產製造成本。
11:38
And the process needed to make it
212
686000
2000
而且製造過程
11:40
is actually coming toward the market quite nicely.
213
688000
3000
正在逐漸與市場很好地結合起來。
11:43
We figured out a kind of a digital inkjet printer
214
691000
3000
我們設計出一種電子噴墨印表機
11:46
for this very stiff, strong, carbon-composite material,
215
694000
6000
專門配合這種非常堅固的，高強度的碳複合材料，
11:52
and then ways to thermoform it,
216
700000
2000
然後再把它們加熱，
11:54
because it's a combination of carbon and nylon,
217
702000
3000
因為它是碳和尼龍的結合物，
11:57
into whatever complex shapes you want,
218
705000
3000
因此你可以把它做成各種你想要的複雜形狀，
12:00
like the one just shown at the auto show by one of the tier-one suppliers.
219
708000
4000
不久前一個前端供應商在車展上展示的就是其中一例。
12:04
And the manufacturing you can do this way gets radically simplified.
220
712000
4000
通過這種方式，你可以從根本上使製造方式簡單化。
12:08
Because the auto body has only, say, 14 parts, instead of 100, 150.
221
716000
5000
因為這樣的車身僅需14個部分，而不再是100150個零件
12:13
Each one is formed by one fairly cheap die set,
222
721000
3000
每一部分都由一套相當便宜的成套模具組成，
12:16
instead of four expensive ones for stamping steel.
223
724000
3000
而不是四個昂貴的衝壓鋼。
12:19
Each of the parts can be easily lifted with no hoist.
224
727000
5000
不用起重機就能很容易地吊起來每一部分。
12:24
They snap together like a kid's toy.
225
732000
2000
它們扣合在一起就像小孩疊積木一樣
12:26
So you got rid of the body shop.
226
734000
2000
你就再也不用去汽車修理廠了
12:28
And if you want, you can lay color in the mold, and get rid of the paint shop.
227
736000
3000
如果你願意，你可以在模具裡直接加顏色，就省的給車噴漆了
12:31
Those are the two hardest and costliest parts of making a car.
228
739000
3000
這兩個是汽車製造中最麻煩也是最貴的部分。
12:34
So you end up with at least two-fifths lower capital intensity
229
742000
3000
因此最後你將會比汽車行業中最精小的工廠，
12:37
than the leanest plant in the industry, which GM has in Lansing.
230
745000
4000
通用設在 Lansing 的分廠，還要節省2/5的資金
12:42
The plant also gets smaller.
231
750000
2000
工廠規模也會更小。
12:44
Now, when you go through a similar analysis for every way we use oil,
232
752000
4000
現在，如果你查閱一份類似分析石油使用方式的報告的話，
12:48
including buildings, industry, feedstocks and so on,
233
756000
3000
這裡面包括建築、工業、原料等，
12:51
you find that of the 28 million barrels a day
234
759000
3000
你會發現我們每天要消耗2800萬桶，
12:54
the government says we will need in 2025,
235
762000
3000
這是政府預測得到2025年時的資料，
12:57
well, about eight of that can be removed by efficiency by then,
236
765000
5000
那麼，通過提高使用效率，到時候我們每桶可節約8美元，
13:02
with another seven still being saved as the vehicle stocks turn over,
237
770000
4000
隨著汽車股的逆轉，還可以省掉另外7美元
13:06
at an average cost of only 12 bucks a barrel,
238
774000
3000
平均下來每桶油只需12美元
13:09
instead of 26 for buying the oil.
239
777000
2000
而不是之前預言的26美元
13:11
And then another six can be made robustly, competitively,
240
779000
5000
接著，汽油中的一半可以用有強勁競爭力的
13:16
from cellulosic ethanol and a little bio-diesel,
241
784000
3000
纖維素乙醇和少量的生物柴油來代替，
13:19
without interfering at all with the water or land needs of crop production.
242
787000
4000
它們是用水和糧食造的，絕對沒有問題。
13:23
There is a huge amount of gas to be saved,
243
791000
3000
這樣能省下大量的汽油
13:26
about half the projected gas at about an eighth of its price.
244
794000
4000
計畫中大約一半的石油價格只有其原價格的1/8
13:30
And here are some no-brainer substitutions of it, with lots left over.
245
798000
4000
還有其他一些簡單易行的代替方法，給我們很多選擇餘地。
13:34
So much, in fact, that after you've handled the domestic oil forecast
246
802000
7000
說了這麼多，事實上，你已經把握住了公認的領域
13:41
from areas already approved,
247
809000
2000
國內石油的走勢
13:43
you have only this little bit left, and let's see how we can meet that,
248
811000
3000
只剩下這點，先看看我們應該怎樣解決
13:46
because there's a pretty flexible menu of ways.
249
814000
3000
因為方法靈活多變，選擇性大。
13:49
We could, of course, buy more efficiency.
250
817000
2000
我們當然可以，少花錢買到更多的燃料
13:51
Maybe you ought to buy efficiency at 26 bucks instead of 12.
251
819000
4000
也許你花12美元買的燃料原本值26美元
13:55
Or wait to capture the second half of it.
252
823000
2000
或者原本只能買到這些量的一半
13:57
Or we could, of course, just get this little bit
253
825000
2000
當然我們還可以，通過不斷從
13:59
by continuing to import some Canadian and Mexican oil,
254
827000
3000
加拿大和墨西哥進口來獲得一點油
14:02
or the ethanol the Brazilians would love to sell us.
255
830000
3000
或者喜歡酒精的巴西人會願意賣給我們
14:05
But they'll sell it to Japan and China instead,
256
833000
2000
但他們還可以選擇賣給日本和中國
14:07
because we have tariff barriers to protect our corn farmers, and they don't.
257
835000
4000
因為我們設有貿易壁壘來保護玉米農場主，而他們沒有。
14:11
Or we could use the saved gas directly to cover all of this balance,
258
839000
5000
或者動用石油儲備來達到供求平衡
14:16
or if we used it as hydrogen, which is more profitable and efficient,
259
844000
3000
要是我們用氫氣做替代品，效率和效益就更高了
14:19
we'd get rid of the domestic oil too.
260
847000
2000
也就不用再為國內石油煩惱了
14:21
And that doesn't even count, for example,
261
849000
2000
類似的方法不計其數，舉個例子，
14:23
that available land in the Dakotas can cost effectively
262
851000
3000
如果能有效開發達科他州可利用的空地，
14:26
make enough wind power to run every highway vehicle in the country.
263
854000
3000
風能可供所有高速路上的車運行使用。
14:29
So we have lots of options.
264
857000
2000
所以說我們有很多選擇
14:31
And the choice of menu and timing is quite flexible.
265
859000
4000
方法和時機也都非常靈活
14:35
Now, to make this happen quicker and with higher confidence,
266
863000
3000
那麼，為了能儘快著手，增強信心
14:38
there is a few ways government could help.
267
866000
2000
政府可以在某些方面幫幫忙
14:40
For example, fee-bates, a combination of a fee and a rebate
268
868000
5000
比如，針對市場上的所有車型
14:45
in any size class of vehicle you want,
269
873000
3000
設計一個收費和回扣方案
14:48
can increase the price of inefficient vehicles
270
876000
5000
以提高低效汽車的價格
14:53
and correspondingly pay you a rebate for efficient vehicles.
271
881000
4000
並相應地，給那些買高效車的人打折
14:57
You're not paid to change size class.
272
885000
2000
你不必為換車型而花錢
14:59
You are paid to pick efficiency within a size class,
273
887000
4000
同一車型，只需在選擇使用效率時付帳，
15:03
in a way equivalent to looking at all fourteen years of life-cycle fuel savings
274
891000
5000
在某種程度上，相當於考慮節省整整14年生命週期的燃料
15:08
rather than just the first two or three.
275
896000
2000
而不只是兩三年的
15:10
This expands choice rapidly in the market,
276
898000
2000
市場上迅速多了這麼多選擇
15:12
and actually makes more money for automakers as well.
277
900000
3000
實際也讓汽車製造商多了很多賺錢的機會
15:15
I'd like to deal with the lack of affordable personal mobility in this country
278
903000
5000
下面我想說的是，美國缺少普通人能用得起的交通工具
15:20
by making it very cheaply possible for low-income families
279
908000
4000
應該生產出適合低收入家庭的，價位最低
15:24
to get efficient, reliable, warranted new cars
280
912000
4000
耗油少，又有可靠保證的新車
15:28
that they could otherwise never get.
281
916000
2000
否則，他們永遠都買不起車。
15:30
And for each car so financed, scrap almost one clunker,
282
918000
4000
由於購買汽車費用很高，報廢的汽車基本上破舊不堪
15:34
preferably the dirtiest ones.
283
922000
2000
往往也是最髒的
15:36
This creates a new million-car-a-year market for Detroit
284
924000
4000
這每年能帶給底特律百萬輛車的市場
15:40
from customers they weren't going to get otherwise,
285
928000
2000
而這批客戶卻是他們主動放棄的
15:42
because they weren't creditworthy and could never afford a new car.
286
930000
3000
因為他們沒有良好的信譽，也根本買不起新車
15:45
And Detroit will make money on every unit.
287
933000
2000
底特律會在每一個環節上創造財富
15:47
It turns out that if, say, African-American and white households
288
935000
3000
事實證明，如果說，美國黑人和白人家庭
15:50
had the same car ownership,
289
938000
2000
有著相同的汽車購買力
15:52
it would cut employment disparity about in half
290
940000
4000
就業差異會減少一半
15:56
by providing better access to job opportunities.
291
944000
2000
因為就業機會增多，就業管道擴大
15:58
So this is a huge social win, too.
292
946000
2000
所以說這是全社會的一個極大勝利。
16:00
Governments buy hundreds of thousands of cars a year.
293
948000
3000
政府每年要買幾十萬輛車
16:03
There are smart ways to buy them and to aggregate that purchasing power
294
951000
4000
購買新型車是一個明智之舉，不僅能提高購買力
16:07
to bring very efficient vehicles into the market faster.
295
955000
3000
還能促進高效節能車在市場上的推廣
16:10
And we could even do an X Prize-style golden carrot
296
958000
3000
我們甚至可以制一個汽車X大獎式的黃金卡洛計畫
16:13
that's worth stretching further for.
297
961000
2000
這個計畫值得我們進一步完善
16:15
For example, a billion-dollar prize for the first U.S. automaker
298
963000
4000
比如，誰先賣掉20萬輛真正先進的汽車，
16:19
to sell 200,000 really advanced vehicles, like some you saw earlier.
299
967000
5000
就獎勵1億美元，就像你們先前看到的那樣。
16:24
Then the legacy airlines can't afford to buy the efficient new planes
300
972000
5000
傳統航空公司買不起新型的高效飛機
16:29
they desperately need to cut their fuel bills,
301
977000
3000
他們迫切需要降低燃料費用
16:32
but if you felt philosophically you wanted to do anything about that,
302
980000
3000
但是如果你頭腦冷靜，想要解決這一問題
16:35
there are ways to finance it.
303
983000
2000
現在就有兩個辦法
16:37
And at the same time to scrap inefficient old planes,
304
985000
4000
並且與此同時處理掉那些低效的舊飛機
16:41
so that if they were otherwise to come back in the air,
305
989000
3000
因此一旦他們重新飛上天空
16:44
they would waste more oil,
306
992000
2000
就會浪費更多的油
16:46
and block the uptake of efficient, new planes.
307
994000
3000
還會阻礙新型高效飛機的推廣使用
16:49
Those part inefficient planes
308
997000
2000
這部分低效飛機
16:51
are worth more to society dead than alive.
309
999000
2000
報廢了反倒對社會更有好處
16:53
We ought to take them out back and shoot them,
310
1001000
2000
我們應該把它們拖出去槍斃，
16:55
and put bounty hunters after them.
311
1003000
2000
還要讓它們永不翻身
16:57
Then there's an important military role.
312
1005000
3000
軍隊在接下來的方面起到重要作用
17:00
That in creating the move to high-volume,
313
1008000
4000
在推動這種大容量
17:04
low-cost commercial production of these kinds of materials,
314
1012000
3000
低成本材料的商業化生產過程中
17:07
or for that matter, ultra-light steels
315
1015000
2000
或著，在超輕型鋼
17:09
that are a good backup technology,
316
1017000
2000
這一優質備份技術上，
17:12
the military can do the trick it did
317
1020000
3000
軍隊可以起到很大作用，
17:15
in turning DARPAnet into the Internet.
318
1023000
2000
就像它曾把國防高級研究計畫局網變成互聯網一樣
17:17
Just turn it over to the private sector, and we have an Internet.
319
1025000
4000
只是讓私營機構經營，互聯網就誕生了
17:21
The same for GPS.
320
1029000
2000
GPS也是這樣來的
17:24
The same for the modern semi-conductor industry.
321
1032000
2000
現代半導體工業也是這樣來的。
17:26
That is, military science and technology that they need
322
1034000
4000
也就是說，軍隊所需的軍事科學和技術，
17:30
can create the advanced materials-industrial cluster
323
1038000
3000
可以催生出先進的材料產業群，
17:33
that transforms its civilian economy and gets the country off oil,
324
1041000
3000
轉變為民用經濟，使國家擺脫石油的制約
17:36
which would be a huge contribution to eliminating conflict over oil
325
1044000
3000
有益於解除石油衝突
17:39
and advancing national and global security.
326
1047000
2000
還可以推動國家和全球安全。
17:41
Then we need to retool the car industry and do retraining,
327
1049000
5000
接下來，我們需要重新整備汽車產業，提高技能，進行再培訓，
17:46
and shift the convergence of the energy and ag-value chains
328
1054000
4000
做好能源替換和股份價值轉移的銜接工作
17:50
to shift faster from hydrocarbons to carbohydrates,
329
1058000
3000
儘快把燃料從碳氫化合物轉變為碳水化合物
17:53
and get out of our own way in other ways.
330
1061000
2000
並且在其他方面也走出我們自己的路子
17:55
And make the transition to more efficient vehicles go faster.
331
1063000
5000
更快地過渡到高效汽車的時代
18:00
But here's how the whole thing fits together.
332
1068000
2000
但這裡是整個過程是如何貫穿在一起的。
18:02
Instead of official forecasts of oil use
333
1070000
3000
官方預測石油使用量
18:05
and oil imports going forever up,
334
1073000
2000
和進口量會無止境地增長，與官方不同的是，
18:07
they can turn down with the 12 dollars a barrel efficiency,
335
1075000
4000
他們可以把價格降到每桶12美元，
18:11
down steeply by adding the supply-side substitutions at 18 bucks,
336
1079000
4000
如果在18美元的時候替換供應燃料，可以迅速降低對石油的需求，
18:15
all implemented at slower rates than we've done before when we paid attention.
337
1083000
4000
注意一下你會發現，在我們著手之前，一切已經在緩慢進展著了
18:19
And if we start adding tranches of hydrogen in there,
338
1087000
3000
如果現在開始在那裡添加部分氫氣
18:22
we are rapidly off imports and completely off oil in the 2040s.
339
1090000
4000
很快我們就不用進口，到2040年就可以不再使用石油
18:26
And the one thing I'd like to point out here is that we've done this before.
340
1094000
4000
而有件事我想在此指出的是，這一點我們曾經做到過。
18:30
In this eight-year period, 1977 to 85, when we last paid attention,
341
1098000
5000
我們上次注意到，1977年到1985這8年期間，
18:35
the economy grew 27 percent, oil use fell 17 percent,
342
1103000
5000
經濟增長了27%，石油使用量卻下降了17%
18:40
oil imports fell 50 percent, oil imports from the Persian Gulf fell 87 percent.
343
1108000
5000
石油進口量下降了50%，波斯灣的石油進口量更是下降了87%
18:45
They would have been gone if we'd kept that up one more year.
344
1113000
3000
如果我們再堅持一年，我們就不再依靠波斯灣進口石油了。
18:48
Well, that was with very old technologies and delivery methods.
345
1116000
4000
對啦，當時我們的技術和資訊工具還都很陳舊
18:52
We could rerun that play a lot better now.
346
1120000
3000
如果現在再來一次，肯定比當初更好。
18:55
And yet what we proved then is the U.S. has more market power than OPEC.
347
1123000
3000
我們證明了，美國比歐派克擁有更強的市場力量。
18:58
Ours is on the demand side.
348
1126000
2000
我們是需求方。
19:00
We are the Saudi Arabia of "nega-barrels." (Laughter)
349
1128000
2000
我們才是沙烏地阿拉伯的“金主”。
19:02
We can use less oil faster than they can conveniently sell less oil.
350
1130000
4000
在他們拿石油牽制我們之前，我們可以減少對石油的需求
19:07
(Applause)
351
1135000
4000
(掌聲)
19:14
Whatever your reason for wanting to do this,
352
1142000
3000
不論你這樣做的動機是什麼，
19:17
whether you're concerned about national security or price volatility --
353
1145000
3000
是擔心國家安全還是害怕價格上漲
19:20
(Laughter)
354
1148000
1000
(笑)
19:21
-- or jobs, or the planet, or your grand-kids,
355
1149000
3000
是工作，還是地球，還是你的子孫後代
19:24
it seems to me that this is an oil endgame
356
1152000
3000
依我看，這是石油的臨終時刻了
19:27
that we should all be playing to win.
357
1155000
2000
我們都應為了贏得勝利，一起參與
19:29
Please download your copy, and thank you very much.
358
1157000
3000
歡迎下載這份文件，謝謝大家。
19:32
(Applause)
359
1160000
1000
(掌聲)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Amory Lovins - Physicist, energy guruIn his new book, "Reinventing Fire," Amory Lovins shares ingenious ideas for the next era of energy.
Why you should listen
Amory Lovins was worried (and writing) about energy long before global warming was making the front -- or even back -- page of newspapers. Since studying at Harvard and Oxford in the 1960s, he's written dozens of books, and initiated ambitious projects -- cofounding the influential, environment-focused Rocky Mountain Institute; prototyping the ultra-efficient Hypercar -- to focus the world's attention on alternative approaches to energy and transportation.
His critical thinking has driven people around the globe -- from world leaders to the average Joe -- to think differently about energy and its role in some of our biggest problems: climate change, oil dependency, national security, economic health, and depletion of natural resources.
Lovins offers solutions as well. His new book and site, Reinventing Fire, offers actionable solutions for four energy-intensive sectors of the economy: transportation, buildings, industry and electricity. Lovins has always focused on solutions that conserve natural resources while also promoting economic growth; Texas Instruments and Wal-Mart are just two of the mega-corporations he has advised on improving energy efficiency.
Amory Lovins | Speaker | TED.com