TED2014
Ray Kurzweil: Get ready for hybrid thinking
Rej Kurcvajl (Ray Kurzweil): Spremite se za hibridno razmišljanje
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Pre 200 miliona godina, naši preci sisari razvili su novu karakteristiku mozga: neokorteks. Ovaj komad tkiva veličine markice (obmotan oko mozga u veličini oraha) je ključ za ono što je čovečanstvo postalo. Futurista Rej Kurcvajl predlaže da se spremimo za sledeći veliki skok u moći mozga, dok koristimo moć računarstva u "oblaku".
Ray Kurzweil - Inventor, futurist
Ray Kurzweil is an engineer who has radically advanced the fields of speech, text and audio technology. He's revered for his dizzying -- yet convincing -- writing on the advance of technology, the limits of biology and the future of the human species. Full bio
Ray Kurzweil is an engineer who has radically advanced the fields of speech, text and audio technology. He's revered for his dizzying -- yet convincing -- writing on the advance of technology, the limits of biology and the future of the human species. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Let me tell you a story.
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Da vam ispričam jednu priču.
Ona nas vraća
200 miliona godina unazad.
200 miliona godina unazad.
00:15
It goes back 200 million years.
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00:17
It's a story of the neocortex,
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To je priča o neokorteksu,
00:19
which means "new rind."
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što znači "nova kora".
00:21
So in these early mammals,
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Kod ranih sisara,
00:23
because only mammals have a neocortex,
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jer jedino sisari imaju neokorteks,
00:25
rodent-like creatures.
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stvorenja nalik glodarima,
00:27
It was the size of a postage stamp and just as thin,
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bio je veličine poštanske markice
i isto tako tanak.
i isto tako tanak.
00:30
and was a thin covering around
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Bio je tanki omotač
00:32
their walnut-sized brain,
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oko njihovog mozga veličine oraha,
00:34
but it was capable of a new type of thinking.
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ali je bio sposoban za
novu vrstu razmišljanja.
novu vrstu razmišljanja.
Za razliku od utvrđenih ponašanja
00:38
Rather than the fixed behaviors
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00:39
that non-mammalian animals have,
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koje imaju ne-sisari,
00:41
it could invent new behaviors.
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on je mogao da smisli nova ponašanja.
00:44
So a mouse is escaping a predator,
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Na primer, miš beži od mesoždera,
00:46
its path is blocked,
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put mu je blokiran,
00:48
it'll try to invent a new solution.
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pokušaće da smisli novo rešenje.
00:50
That may work, it may not,
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To može da uspe ili ne,
00:51
but if it does, it will remember that
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ali ako uspe, on će to zapamtiti
00:53
and have a new behavior,
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i imaće novo ponašanje
i to može da se proširi kao virus
00:55
and that can actually spread virally
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00:56
through the rest of the community.
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na ostatak zajednice.
00:58
Another mouse watching this could say,
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Drugi miš koji to gleda može da kaže:
01:00
"Hey, that was pretty clever, going around that rock,"
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"Bilo je pametno to
što je zaobišao taj kamen",
što je zaobišao taj kamen",
01:03
and it could adopt a new behavior as well.
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i takođe usvoji novo ponašanje.
01:06
Non-mammalian animals
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Životinje koje nisu sisari
01:08
couldn't do any of those things.
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ne mogu ništa od toga.
One imaju utvrđena ponašanja.
01:10
They had fixed behaviors.
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01:11
Now they could learn a new behavior
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Mogu da nauče novo ponašanje,
01:12
but not in the course of one lifetime.
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ali ne u toku jednog života.
01:15
In the course of maybe a thousand lifetimes,
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U toku možda hiljadu života
01:17
it could evolve a new fixed behavior.
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mogu da razviju novo utvrđeno ponašanje.
01:20
That was perfectly okay 200 million years ago.
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To je bilo potpuno u redu
pre 200 miliona godina.
pre 200 miliona godina.
01:23
The environment changed very slowly.
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Okruženje se menjalo veoma sporo.
01:25
It could take 10,000 years for there to be
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Moglo je da prođe 10.000 godina
01:27
a significant environmental change,
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dok se ne desi značajna promena okruženja,
01:29
and during that period of time
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i u toku tog perioda
01:30
it would evolve a new behavior.
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razvili bi novo ponašanje.
01:33
Now that went along fine,
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To je prošlo dobro,
01:35
but then something happened.
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ali onda se nešto desilo.
01:37
Sixty-five million years ago,
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Pre 65 miliona godina,
01:39
there was a sudden, violent
change to the environment.
change to the environment.
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desila se iznenadna, žestoka
promena okruženja.
promena okruženja.
01:41
We call it the Cretaceous extinction event.
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Nazivamo je K-T izumiranje.
01:45
That's when the dinosaurs went extinct,
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Tada su izumrli dinosaurusi,
01:47
that's when 75 percent of the
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izumrlo je 75 posto
01:51
animal and plant species went extinct,
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životinjskih i biljnih vrsta
01:53
and that's when mammals
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i sisari su zauzeli
01:55
overtook their ecological niche,
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svoje ekološko stanište.
01:57
and to anthropomorphize, biological evolution said,
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I da antropomorfizujemo,
biološka evolucija kaže:
biološka evolucija kaže:
02:01
"Hmm, this neocortex is pretty good stuff,"
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"Hm. Taj neokorteks je dobra stvar",
02:03
and it began to grow it.
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i počinje da ga razvija.
02:05
And mammals got bigger,
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Sisari su postali veći,
02:06
their brains got bigger at an even faster pace,
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njihov mozak je postao veći
još bržim tempom,
još bržim tempom,
02:09
and the neocortex got bigger even faster than that
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i neokorteks se povećao još brže
02:13
and developed these distinctive ridges and folds
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i razvio ove prepoznatljive
brazde i prevoje,
brazde i prevoje,
02:16
basically to increase its surface area.
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uglavnom da bi povećao svoju površinu.
02:19
If you took the human neocortex
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Kad biste uzeli ljudski neokorteks
02:20
and stretched it out,
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i rastegli ga,
02:22
it's about the size of a table napkin,
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bio bi veličine stone salvete,
02:23
and it's still a thin structure.
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i dalje tanke strukture.
02:25
It's about the thickness of a table napkin.
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Otprilike je debljine salvete.
02:27
But it has so many convolutions and ridges
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Ali ima toliko mnogo vijuga i brazdi
02:29
it's now 80 percent of our brain,
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da sada predstavlja 80% našeg mozga,
02:32
and that's where we do our thinking,
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i tu obavljamo razmišljanje,
02:35
and it's the great sublimator.
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i veliki je sublimator.
Još uvek imamo onaj stari mozak
02:37
We still have that old brain
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02:38
that provides our basic drives and motivations,
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koji obezbeđuje osnovne nagone
i motivacije,
i motivacije,
02:40
but I may have a drive for conquest,
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ali ja mogu imati nagon za osvajanjem
02:43
and that'll be sublimated by the neocortex
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i to će neokorteks sublimirati
02:46
into writing a poem or inventing an app
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u pisanje pesme
ili pronalaženje aplikacije
ili pronalaženje aplikacije
02:49
or giving a TED Talk,
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ili držanje TED govora,
02:50
and it's really the neocortex that's where
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i u stvari, neokorteks je mesto gde se
02:54
the action is.
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obavlja radnja.
02:56
Fifty years ago, I wrote a paper
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Pre 50 godina, napisao sam rad
02:58
describing how I thought the brain worked,
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o tome kako sam mislio da mozak radi
02:59
and I described it as a series of modules.
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i opisao sam ga kao niz modula.
03:03
Each module could do things with a pattern.
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Svaki modul može da radi stvari
pomoću obrasca.
pomoću obrasca.
03:05
It could learn a pattern. It could remember a pattern.
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Može da nauči obrazac, da ga zapamti
03:08
It could implement a pattern.
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i primeni.
03:09
And these modules were organized in hierarchies,
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Ti moduli su organizovani u hijerarhije
03:12
and we created that hierarchy with our own thinking.
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i mi kreiramo tu hijerarhiju
svojim razmišljanjem.
svojim razmišljanjem.
03:15
And there was actually very little to go on
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Nije moglo mnogo toga da se uradi
03:18
50 years ago.
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pre 50 godina.
03:19
It led me to meet President Johnson.
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To me je odvelo do predsednika Džonsona.
03:22
I've been thinking about this for 50 years,
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Razmišljao sam o tome 50 godina
03:24
and a year and a half ago I came out with the book
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i pre godinu i po dana, izdao sam knjigu
03:27
"How To Create A Mind,"
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"Kako kreirati um",
03:28
which has the same thesis,
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koja je imala istu tezu,
03:29
but now there's a plethora of evidence.
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ali je sada bilo pregršt dokaza.
Količina podataka koje dobijamo o mozgu
03:32
The amount of data we're getting about the brain
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03:34
from neuroscience is doubling every year.
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od neuronauke
udvostručuje se svake godine.
udvostručuje se svake godine.
03:36
Spatial resolution of brainscanning of all types
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Sve vrste prostorne rezolucije
skeniranog mozga
skeniranog mozga
03:39
is doubling every year.
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udvostručuju se svake godine.
03:41
We can now see inside a living brain
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Sada možemo videti
unutrašnjost živog mozga
03:43
and see individual interneural connections
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i pojedinačne međuneuronske veze
03:46
connecting in real time, firing in real time.
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kako se povezuju u realnom vremenu.
03:49
We can see your brain create your thoughts.
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Možemo videti vaš mozak
kako stvara vaše misli.
03:51
We can see your thoughts create your brain,
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Možemo videti kako vaše misli
stvaraju vaš mozak,
03:53
which is really key to how it works.
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što je ključ toga kako on funkcioniše.
03:55
So let me describe briefly how it works.
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Da objasnim kratko kako funkcioniše.
03:57
I've actually counted these modules.
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U stvari sam izbrojao ove module.
03:59
We have about 300 million of them,
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Imamo ih oko 300 miliona
04:01
and we create them in these hierarchies.
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i stvaramo ih u ovim hijerarhijama.
04:03
I'll give you a simple example.
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Daću vam prost primer.
04:05
I've got a bunch of modules
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Imam gomilu modula
04:08
that can recognize the crossbar to a capital A,
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koji mogu da prepoznaju
poprečnu crtu na velikom A,
04:12
and that's all they care about.
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i to je sve što ih zanima.
04:14
A beautiful song can play,
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Može da svira lepa pesma,
04:15
a pretty girl could walk by,
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da prođe lepa devojka,
04:17
they don't care, but they see
a crossbar to a capital A,
a crossbar to a capital A,
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njih je baš briga,
ali kad vide poprečnu crtu na A,
04:19
they get very excited and they say "crossbar,"
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uzbude se i kažu: "Crta",
04:22
and they put out a high probability
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i objavljuju visoku verovatnoću
04:24
on their output axon.
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na svom izlaznom aksonu.
04:26
That goes to the next level,
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To se uzdiže na sledeći nivo,
04:27
and these layers are organized in conceptual levels.
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i ovi slojevi se organizuju
u pojmovne nivoe.
u pojmovne nivoe.
04:30
Each is more abstract than the next one,
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Svaki je apstraktniji od sledećeg,
04:32
so the next one might say "capital A."
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tako da sledeći može da kaže: "Veliko A".
04:34
That goes up to a higher
level that might say "Apple."
level that might say "Apple."
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To ide na sledeći nivo,
koji može da kaže: "Jabuka"
04:37
Information flows down also.
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Informacija takođe teče nadole.
04:40
If the apple recognizer has seen A-P-P-L,
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Ako je prepoznavač jabuke
video J-A-B-U-K,
04:42
it'll think to itself, "Hmm, I
think an E is probably likely,"
think an E is probably likely,"
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pomisliće:
"Hm, mislim da je A verovatno",
04:46
and it'll send a signal down to all the E recognizers
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i poslaće signal dole
do prepoznavača slova A,
04:48
saying, "Be on the lookout for an E,
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i reći će: "Pazite na A,
04:50
I think one might be coming."
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mislim da će možda biti jedno".
04:51
The E recognizers will lower their threshold
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Prepoznavači slova A
će sniziti kriterijum i videti
04:54
and they see some sloppy
thing, could be an E.
thing, could be an E.
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neku brljotinu koja bi mogla da bude A.
04:56
Ordinarily you wouldn't think so,
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Obično ne biste to pomislili,
04:58
but we're expecting an E, it's good enough,
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ali očekujemo A, dovoljno je slično
05:00
and yeah, I've seen an E, and then apple says,
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i da, video sam A
i onda jabuka kaže:
05:02
"Yeah, I've seen an Apple."
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"Da, video sam Jabuku".
05:03
Go up another five levels,
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Idite nagore još pet nivoa
05:05
and you're now at a pretty high level
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i sada ste na prilično visokom nivou
05:06
of this hierarchy,
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ove hijerarhije,
05:08
and stretch down into the different senses,
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i raširite nadole u različitim smerovima
05:10
and you may have a module
that sees a certain fabric,
that sees a certain fabric,
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i možda ćete imati modul
koji vidi određenu tkaninu,
koji vidi određenu tkaninu,
05:13
hears a certain voice quality,
smells a certain perfume,
smells a certain perfume,
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čuje određenu zvučnu osobinu
oseća određeni parfem i reći će:
05:16
and will say, "My wife has entered the room."
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"Moja žena je
upravo ušla u sobu".
05:18
Go up another 10 levels, and now you're at
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Idite nagore još 10 nivoa
i sada ste na vrlo visokom nivou.
i sada ste na vrlo visokom nivou.
05:20
a very high level.
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05:21
You're probably in the frontal cortex,
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Verovatno ste u frontalnom korteksu,
05:23
and you'll have modules that say, "That was ironic.
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i imaćete module koji kažu:
"To je bilo ironično.
05:27
That's funny. She's pretty."
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To je smešno. Ona je lepa."
Možda ćete pomisliti
da su ovi sofisticiraniji,
da su ovi sofisticiraniji,
05:29
You might think that those are more sophisticated,
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05:32
but actually what's more complicated
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ali u stvari su komplikovaniji
05:33
is the hierarchy beneath them.
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od hijerarhije ispod njih.
05:36
There was a 16-year-old girl, she had brain surgery,
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Jedna 16-ogodišnja devojčica
je imala operaciju na mozgu,
05:38
and she was conscious because the surgeons
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i bila je svesna jer su hirurzi
05:40
wanted to talk to her.
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želeli da razgovaraju s njom.
05:42
You can do that because there's no pain receptors
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To može da se uradi jer nema
receptora za bol u mozgu.
05:44
in the brain.
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05:45
And whenever they stimulated particular,
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Kad god bi stimulisali određene
05:47
very small points on her neocortex,
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vrlo male tačke u njenom neokorteksu
05:49
shown here in red, she would laugh.
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koje su prikazane crvenom bojom,
ona bi se smejala.
05:52
So at first they thought they were triggering
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Prvo su pomislili da pokreću
05:53
some kind of laugh reflex,
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neku vrstu refleksa za smeh,
05:55
but no, they quickly realized they had found
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ali ne, ubrzo su shvatili da su pronašli
05:57
the points in her neocortex that detect humor,
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tačke u njenom neokorteksu
koje detektuju humor,
06:00
and she just found everything hilarious
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i njoj je prosto sve bilo smešno
06:02
whenever they stimulated these points.
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kad god su stimulisali ove tačke.
06:05
"You guys are so funny just standing around,"
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"Tako ste smešni kako stojite okolo",
06:07
was the typical comment,
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bio je uobičajen komentar,
06:08
and they weren't funny,
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a oni nisu bili smešni,
06:11
not while doing surgery.
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ne dok su operisali.
06:14
So how are we doing today?
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Kako nam ide danas?
06:19
Well, computers are actually beginning to master
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Kompjuteri počinju da ovladavaju
06:22
human language with techniques
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ljudskim jezikom pomoću tehnika
06:24
that are similar to the neocortex.
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koje su slične neokorteksu.
06:27
I actually described the algorithm,
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Opisao sam algoritam
06:28
which is similar to something called
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sličan nečemu što se zove
06:30
a hierarchical hidden Markov model,
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hijerarhijski skriveni Markovljev model,
06:33
something I've worked on since the '90s.
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nečemu na čemu sam radio od '90-ih.
06:36
"Jeopardy" is a very broad natural language game,
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"Jeopardy" je veoma raširena
prirodna jezička igra,
prirodna jezička igra,
06:39
and Watson got a higher score
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i Votson je postigao veći skor
06:41
than the best two players combined.
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nego najbolja dva igrača zajedno.
06:43
It got this query correct:
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Pogodio je pitanje za ovaj odgovor:
06:45
"A long, tiresome speech
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"Dugačak, dosadan govor
06:48
delivered by a frothy pie topping,"
176
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penastog kolača od belanaca",
06:50
and it quickly responded,
"What is a meringue harangue?"
"What is a meringue harangue?"
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i brzo je odgovorio:
"Šta je brbljanje puslice?"
06:53
And Jennings and the other guy didn't get that.
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Dženings i drugi igrač nisu to pogodili.
06:55
It's a pretty sophisticated example of
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To je prilično sofisticiran primer
06:57
computers actually understanding human language,
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kako kompjuteri u stvari
razumeju ljudski jezik,
06:59
and it actually got its knowledge by reading
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i on je u stvari
07:01
Wikipedia and several other encyclopedias.
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stekao znanje čitajući Vikipediju
i nekoliko drugih enciklopedija.
i nekoliko drugih enciklopedija.
07:04
Five to 10 years from now,
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Pet do deset godina od sada
07:07
search engines will actually be based on
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pretraživači će biti zasnovani
07:09
not just looking for combinations of words and links
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ne samo na traženju
kombinacija reči i linkova
kombinacija reči i linkova
07:12
but actually understanding,
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već na razumevanju,
07:13
reading for understanding the billions of pages
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čitanju da bi razumeli
milijarde stranica
07:16
on the web and in books.
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na internetu i u knjigama.
07:19
So you'll be walking along, and Google will pop up
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Tako da, dok hodate, iskočiće vam Gugl
07:21
and say, "You know, Mary, you expressed concern
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i reći: "Znaš Meri, pre mesec dana
rekla si mi da si zabrinuta
rekla si mi da si zabrinuta
07:24
to me a month ago that your glutathione supplement
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zbog toga što tvoj glutationski dodatak
07:27
wasn't getting past the blood-brain barrier.
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nije prošao kroz
krvno-moždanu barijeru.
07:30
Well, new research just came out 13 seconds ago
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Pre 13 sekundi se pojavilo
novo istraživanje
07:32
that shows a whole new approach to that
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koje ima potpuno novi pristup tome
07:34
and a new way to take glutathione.
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1993
i novi način za uzimanje glutationa.
07:36
Let me summarize it for you."
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Da ti sumiram to."
07:38
Twenty years from now, we'll have nanobots,
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Za dvadeset godina,
imaćemo nano-robote
jer još jedan rastući trend je
07:42
because another exponential trend
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07:44
is the shrinking of technology.
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minijaturizacija tehnologije.
07:45
They'll go into our brain
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Oni će ulaziti u naš mozak
07:48
through the capillaries
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kroz kapilare
07:49
and basically connect our neocortex
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i u osnovi povezivati naš neokorteks
07:52
to a synthetic neocortex in the cloud
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sa sintetičkim neokorteksom u "oblaku",
07:55
providing an extension of our neocortex.
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obezbeđujući time produžetak
našeg neokorteksa.
Danas,
07:59
Now today, I mean,
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imate kompjuter u vašem telefonu,
08:00
you have a computer in your phone,
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1530
08:02
but if you need 10,000 computers for a few seconds
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ali ako vam zatreba 10.000 kompjutera
za nekoliko sekundi
08:05
to do a complex search,
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da biste uradili složenu pretragu,
08:06
you can access that for a second or two in the cloud.
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3396
možete pristupiti tome
za 1-2 sekunde u "oblaku".
za 1-2 sekunde u "oblaku".
08:09
In the 2030s, if you need some extra neocortex,
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U 2030-im, ako vam zatreba
dodatni neokorteks,
dodatni neokorteks,
08:12
you'll be able to connect to that in the cloud
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moći ćete da se
povežete sa njim u "oblaku"
povežete sa njim u "oblaku"
08:15
directly from your brain.
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1648
direktno iz vašeg mozga.
08:16
So I'm walking along and I say,
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Na primer, šetam se i kažem:
08:18
"Oh, there's Chris Anderson.
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"Eno ga Kris Anderson.
08:19
He's coming my way.
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Ide prema meni.
08:21
I'd better think of something clever to say.
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Bolje da smislim nešto
pametno što ću da kažem.
08:23
I've got three seconds.
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Imam tri sekunde.
08:25
My 300 million modules in my neocortex
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Mojih 300 miliona modula u neokorteksu
08:28
isn't going to cut it.
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neće to uspeti.
08:29
I need a billion more."
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Treba mi još milijardu."
08:30
I'll be able to access that in the cloud.
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Moći ću da pristupim tome u "oblaku".
08:34
And our thinking, then, will be a hybrid
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I onda će naše razmišljanje biti hibrid
08:36
of biological and non-biological thinking,
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biološkog i nebiološkog razmišljanja,
08:40
but the non-biological portion
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a nebiološki deo
08:42
is subject to my law of accelerating returns.
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je podložan mom
Zakonu o ponovnim ubrzanjima.
Zakonu o ponovnim ubrzanjima.
08:45
It will grow exponentially.
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Povećavaće se eksponencijalno.
08:47
And remember what happens
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Sećate se šta se desilo
08:49
the last time we expanded our neocortex?
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poslednji put kad smo
proširili naš neokorteks?
proširili naš neokorteks?
To je bilo pre dva miliona godina,
08:51
That was two million years ago
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1426
08:53
when we became humanoids
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kad smo postali humanoidi
08:54
and developed these large foreheads.
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i razvili ova visoka čela.
08:56
Other primates have a slanted brow.
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Ostali primati imaju koso čelo.
08:58
They don't have the frontal cortex.
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Oni nemaju frontalni korteks.
09:00
But the frontal cortex is not
really qualitatively different.
really qualitatively different.
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Ali frontalni korteks nije
kvalitativno drugačiji.
kvalitativno drugačiji.
09:04
It's a quantitative expansion of neocortex,
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On je kvantitativni produžetak
neokorteksa,
neokorteksa,
09:06
but that additional quantity of thinking
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ali ta dodatna količina razmišljanja
09:09
was the enabling factor for us to take
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omogućila nam je da načinimo
09:11
a qualitative leap and invent language
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kvalitativni skok i izmislimo jezik,
09:14
and art and science and technology
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i umetnost, i nauku, i tehnologiju,
09:16
and TED conferences.
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i TED konferencije.
09:18
No other species has done that.
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Nijedna druga vrsta nije to uradila.
09:20
And so, over the next few decades,
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I tokom sledećih nekoliko decenija,
09:22
we're going to do it again.
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uradićemo to ponovo.
09:24
We're going to again expand our neocortex,
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Proširićemo ponovo svoj neokorteks,
samo ovog puta nećemo biti ograničeni
09:26
only this time we won't be limited
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09:28
by a fixed architecture of enclosure.
246
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utvrđenom arhitekturom zatvaranja.
09:32
It'll be expanded without limit.
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Proširivaće se bez ograničenja.
09:35
That additional quantity will again
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Taj dodatni kvantitet će ponovo biti
09:38
be the enabling factor for another qualitative leap
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faktor koji će omogućiti
još jedan kvalitativni skok
još jedan kvalitativni skok
09:41
in culture and technology.
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u kulturi i tehnologiji.
09:42
Thank you very much.
251
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Hvala vam mnogo.
09:44
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Ray Kurzweil - Inventor, futuristRay Kurzweil is an engineer who has radically advanced the fields of speech, text and audio technology. He's revered for his dizzying -- yet convincing -- writing on the advance of technology, the limits of biology and the future of the human species.
Why you should listen
Inventor, entrepreneur, visionary, Ray Kurzweil's accomplishments read as a startling series of firsts -- a litany of technological breakthroughs we've come to take for granted. Kurzweil invented the first optical character recognition (OCR) software for transforming the written word into data, the first print-to-speech software for the blind, the first text-to-speech synthesizer, and the first music synthesizer capable of recreating the grand piano and other orchestral instruments, and the first commercially marketed large-vocabulary speech recognition.
Yet his impact as a futurist and philosopher is no less significant. In his best-selling books, which include How to Create a Mind, The Age of Spiritual Machines, The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Kurzweil depicts in detail a portrait of the human condition over the next few decades, as accelerating technologies forever blur the line between human and machine.
In 2009, he unveiled Singularity University, an institution that aims to "assemble, educate and inspire leaders who strive to understand and facilitate the development of exponentially advancing technologies." He is a Director of Engineering at Google, where he heads up a team developing machine intelligence and natural language comprehension.
Ray Kurzweil | Speaker | TED.com