TED2009
Pete Alcorn: The world in 2200
Pit Alkorn o svetu 2200. godine
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U ovom kratkom, optimističnom govoru sa konferencije TED2009, Pit Alkorn deli viziju sveta 2 veka od sada -- kada opadanje populacije i povećanje mogućnosti pokažu da Maltus nije bio u pravu.
Pete Alcorn - Media exec
Pete Alcorn is the head of podcasting for Apple, and a veteran of the paper-publishing industry. Full bio
Pete Alcorn is the head of podcasting for Apple, and a veteran of the paper-publishing industry. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
I used to be a Malthusian.
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Nekada sam bio maltuzijanac.
00:15
This was my mental model of the world:
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Ovo je bio moj mentalni model sveta.
00:18
exploding population, small planet;
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Eksplodiranje populacije, mala planeta,
00:21
it's going to lead to ugly things.
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to ima da vodi do ružnih stvari.
00:23
But I'm moving past Malthus,
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Ali prevazilazim Maltusa.
00:25
because I think that we just might be about 150 years
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Jer mislim da smo 150 godina
00:28
from a kind of new enlightenment.
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od neke vrste novog prosvetljenja.
00:30
Here's why.
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Evo zašto.
00:32
This is the U.N.'s population data,
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Ovo su UN-ovi podaci populacije,
00:34
you may have seen, for the world.
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koje ste možda videli, za svet.
00:37
And the world's population expected to top out
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Očekuje se da svetska populacija, krajem
00:39
at something hopefully a bit less than 10 billion, late this century.
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ovog veka, dostigne vrhunac, nešto manje od 10 milijardi.
00:43
And after that, most likely it's going to begin to decline.
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I nakon toga, najverovatnije će krenuti da opada.
00:47
So what then?
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I šta onda?
00:50
Most of the economic models are built around scarcity and growth.
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Većina ekonomskih modela se gradi oko nestašice i rasta.
00:53
So a lot of economists
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Pa mnogi ekonomisti
00:55
look at declining population
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gledaju na opadanje populacije
00:57
and expect to see stagnation, maybe depression.
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i očekuju stagniranje, možda i depresiju.
01:00
But a declining population is going to have
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Ali opadanje populacije će imati
01:03
at least two very beneficial economic effects.
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bar dva veoma korisna ekonomska efekta.
01:07
One: fewer people on a fixed amount of land
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Jedan, manje ljudi na ograničenoj površini zemlje
01:12
make investing in property a bad bet.
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čini da investiranje u nekretnine deluje kao loša opklada.
01:16
In the cities, a lot of the cost of property
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U gradovima, mnoge cene imovine
01:20
is actually wrapped up in its speculative value.
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su omotane špekulativnim vrednostima.
01:24
Take away land speculation,
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Oduzmite špekulaciju zemlje,
01:26
price of land drops.
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cena zemlje opada.
01:28
And that begins to lift a heavy burden
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I počinje da se diže veliki teret
01:30
off the world's poor.
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sa siromašnih u svetu.
01:33
Number two: a declining population
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Drugo, opadanje populacije
01:37
means scarce labor.
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znači nestašicu radne snage.
01:39
Scarce labor drives wages.
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Nestašica radne snage povećava plate.
01:41
As wages increase
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Kako se plate povećavaju
01:43
that also lifts the burden on the poor and the working class.
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to takođe diže teret sa siromašnih i radne klase.
01:48
Now I'm not talking about a radical drop in population like we saw in the Black Death.
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Ne pričam sada o radikalnom padu populacije kao što smo videli prilikom Crne Smrti.
01:52
But look what happened in Europe
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Ali pogledajte šta se događa u Evropi
01:54
after the plague:
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nakon kuge:
01:56
rising wages,
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povećanje plata,
01:58
land reform,
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reforma zemlje,
02:00
technological innovation,
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tehnološke inovacije,
02:03
birth of the middle class;
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rađanje srednje klase.
02:05
and after that, forward-looking social movements
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I posle svega, radnički pokreti sa futurističkim pogledima
02:09
like the Renaissance,
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kao Renesansa,
02:11
and later the Enlightenment.
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i kasnije Prosvetiteljstvo.
02:14
Most of our cultural heritage has tended to look backward,
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Većina našeg kulturnog nasleđa teži da gleda unazad,
02:17
romanticizing the past.
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romantizujući prošlost.
02:20
All of the Western religions begin with the notion of Eden,
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Sve zapadne religije počinju sa Rajem,
02:23
and descend through a kind of profligate present
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i spuštaju se kroz neku vrstu rasipne sadašnjosti
02:26
to a very ugly future.
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do veoma ružne budućnosti.
02:29
So human history is viewed
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Tako da se na ljudsku istoriju gleda
02:31
as sort of this downhill slide
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kao da klizi nadole,
02:33
from the good old days.
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od dobrih starih dana.
02:35
But I think we're in for another change,
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Ali mislim da će biti još jedna promena za nas.
02:38
about two generations after the top of that curve,
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Dve generacije nakon vrha te krive,
02:41
once the effects of a declining population
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kada efekti opadanja populacije
02:44
start to settle in.
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krenu da deluju.
02:46
At that point, we'll start romanticizing the future again,
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U tom trenutku, počećemo da opet romantizujemo budućnost,
02:50
instead of the nasty, brutish past.
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umesto prljave, brutalne prošlosti.
02:53
So why does this matter?
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I zašto je ovo bitno?
02:55
Why talk about social-economic movements
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Zašto pričati o socijalno-ekonomskim pokretima
02:57
that may be more than a century away?
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koji će možda postojati za više od jednog veka?
02:59
Because transitions are dangerous times.
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Jer su tranzicije opasna vremena.
03:03
When land owners start to lose money,
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Kada vlasnici zemlje krenu da gube novac,
03:06
and labor demands more pay,
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i radna snaga zahteva veću platu,
03:08
there are some powerful interests that are going to fear for the future.
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postoje neki moćni interesi koji će da se plaše za budućnost.
03:12
Fear for the future leads to some rash decisions.
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Strah za budućnost vodi do nekih ishitrenih odluka.
03:16
If we have a positive view about the future
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Ako imamo pozitivan pogled na budućnost
03:19
then we may be able to accelerate through that turn,
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onda možemo da se ubrzamo kroz taj preokret,
03:22
instead of careening off a cliff.
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umesto da visimo da litice.
03:25
If we can make it through the next 150 years,
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Ako možemo da proguramo kroz sledećih 150 godina,
03:28
I think that your great great grandchildren
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mislim da će vaši pra-pra-praunuci
03:30
will forget all about Malthus.
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zaboraviti Maltusa.
03:32
And instead, they'll be planning for the future
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I umesto toga, planiraće za budućnost,
03:36
and starting to build the 22nd Century Enlightenment.
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počeće da grade Prosvetiteljstvo 22. veka.
03:39
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
03:41
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Pete Alcorn - Media execPete Alcorn is the head of podcasting for Apple, and a veteran of the paper-publishing industry.
Why you should listen
Pete Alcorn has been in the forefront of several head-snapping changes in media over the past two decades. Starting as a computer-textbook writer in the late '80s, Alcorn became fascinated with the new electronic side of print. He founded NetRead in the early '90s to help book publishers work with metadata and understand the next world of e-publishing.
Since 2005, he has led the podcasting operation at iTunes, bulking up the iTunes Music Store's podcast library with thousands of free (and very findable) titles. Before Apple, he led the sale of ebooks and electronic documents at Amazon.com. In his spare time, he thinks big thoughts.
Pete Alcorn | Speaker | TED.com