TEDGlobal 2005
Peter Diamandis: Our next giant leap
彼得迪曼蒂斯谈人类的下一个巨大飞跃
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彼得迪曼蒂斯说不断探索空间是我们道义上的当务之急 - 同时他谈到我们将如何通过X大奖和其他激励方式来进行这项事业。
Peter Diamandis - Space activist
Peter Diamandis runs the X Prize Foundation, which offers large cash incentive prizes to inventors who can solve grand challenges like space flight, low-cost mobile medical diagnostics and oil spill cleanup. He is the chair of Singularity University, which teaches executives and grad students about exponentially growing technologies. Full bio
Peter Diamandis runs the X Prize Foundation, which offers large cash incentive prizes to inventors who can solve grand challenges like space flight, low-cost mobile medical diagnostics and oil spill cleanup. He is the chair of Singularity University, which teaches executives and grad students about exponentially growing technologies. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:18
My mission in life since I was a kid was,
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从小到现在，我一生的使命一直就是
00:21
and is, to take the rest of you into space.
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要把所有人都带上太空。
00:24
It's during our lifetime that we're going to take the Earth,
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就在我们这个时代，我们将把地球，
00:28
take the people of Earth and transition off, permanently. And that's exciting.
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地球上的人和交通永久的送上宇宙。那是非常令人激动的。
00:32
In fact, I think it is a moral imperative
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实际上，我认为开拓空间前沿
00:34
that we open the space frontier.
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在道义上是非常有必要的。
00:37
You know, it's the first time that we're going to have a chance
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这将是第一次我们有
00:39
to have planetary redundancy,
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备份行星的机会。
00:41
a chance to, if you would, back up the biosphere.
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一个备份地球生物圈的机会。
00:44
And if you think about space,
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想象一下在宇宙中，
00:47
everything we hold of value on this planet --
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这个星球上一切所有我们珍视的资源 －
00:50
metals and minerals and real estate and energy -- is in infinite quantities in space.
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金属，矿物，不动产以及能源，在宇宙中的储量都是无限的。
00:54
In fact, the Earth is a crumb in a supermarket filled with resources.
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事实上，地球不过是一间装满商品的超级商场里的一片细屑而已。
00:59
The analogy for me is Alaska. You know, we bought Alaska.
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我觉得一个可以用类比的情况是阿拉斯加。我们买下了阿拉斯加。
01:02
We Americans bought Alaska in the 1850s. It's called Seward's folly.
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19世纪50年代美国买下了阿拉斯加。人们称之为“苏华德的蠢事”。
01:06
We valued it as the number of seal pelts we could kill.
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我们以能猎取多少张海豹皮来衡量这片土地的价值。
01:10
And then we discovered these things -- gold and oil and fishing and timber --
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后来我们发现了这些东西--金矿，石油，渔场以及木材--
01:14
and it became, you know, a trillion-dollar economy,
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由此它成为了一个万亿美元的经济体，
01:17
and now we take our honeymoons there. The same thing will happen in space.
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而现在大家都去那度蜜月。同样的事情一定也会发生在太空中。
01:20
We are on the verge of the greatest exploration
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我们正处在人类历史上前所未见的
01:23
that the human race has ever known.
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伟大的探索的边缘。
01:25
We explore for three reasons,
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我们有这样三个理由去进行探索，
01:27
the weakest of which is curiosity.
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最弱的一点是好奇心。
01:29
You know, it's funded NASA's budget up until now.
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一直以来，航天航空局的经费来源都是源于人类的好奇心。
01:33
Some images from Mars, 1997.
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一些1997年从火星发回来的照片。
01:36
In fact, I think in the next decade, without any question,
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我认为在下一个十年中，毫无疑问地，
01:38
we will discover life on Mars and find that it is literally ubiquitous
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我们会发现火星上存在的生命并且发现它们充斥于
01:42
under the soils and different parts of that planet.
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那颗星球的的土壤和以及其他地方之下。
01:45
The stronger motivator, the much stronger motivator, is fear.
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更强的动机，一个要强烈的多的动机是恐惧。
01:48
It drove us to the moon. We -- literally in fear -- with the Soviet Union
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它驱使我们登上月球。我们是在恐惧中与前苏联
01:52
raced to the moon. And we have these huge rocks,
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进行着登月竞赛。宇宙中这些巨大的石块，
01:56
you know, killer-sized rocks in the hundreds of thousands or millions out there,
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成千上万颗毁灭级尺寸的石块漂浮在外太空，
02:01
and while the probability is very small,
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尽管它们之中任何一块击中地球
02:03
the impact, figured in literally,
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的概率非常小，但若是真的发生，
02:05
of one of these hitting the Earth is so huge
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其影响是如此之巨大，
02:08
that to spend a small fraction looking, searching,
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为此支出一些费用来观测、搜寻
02:11
preparing to defend, is not unreasonable.
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以及预防这样的情况并不过分。
02:13
And of course, the third motivator,
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当然，还有第三个动机，
02:15
one near and dear to my heart as an entrepreneur, is wealth.
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对我作为一个创业者来说最为重要的是：财富。
02:19
In fact, the greatest wealth. If you think about these other asteroids,
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实际上，其中蕴藏着的是最巨大的财富。看下这些小行星，
02:23
there's a class of the nickel iron,
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有一种镍铁矿单单在铂族金属矿市场上
02:25
which in platinum-group metal markets alone
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价值约20万亿美元，
02:27
are worth something like 20 trillion dollars,
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如果你有能力飞上太空，
02:29
if you can go out and grab one of these rocks.
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并获取其中的一块。
02:31
My plan is to actually buy puts on the precious metal market,
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我的想法是在稀有金属市场购买期权，
02:34
and then actually claim that I'm going to go out and get one.
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然后宣布我将要飞上太空去取一颗石块回来。
02:36
And that will fund the actual mission to go and get one.
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这样就足够筹集到实际执行任务所需要的资金并真的取回一颗来。
02:39
But fear, curiosity and greed have driven us.
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恐惧，好奇心以及欲望驱使着我们。
02:42
And for me, this is -- I'm the short kid on the right.
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对我来说，我是右边这个较矮的小孩子 －
02:46
This was -- my motivation was actually during Apollo.
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我的动机起源于阿波罗时代。
02:50
And Apollo was one of the greatest motivators ever.
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阿波罗计划是最大的激发因素之一。
02:52
If you think about what happened at the turn of -- early 1960s,
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回想一下发生在60年代初发生的事情，
02:58
on May 25, JFK said, "We're going to go to the moon."
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5月25号，约翰肯尼迪说：“我们要登上月球。”
03:02
And people left their jobs and they went to obscure locations
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人们纷纷辞去工作去到不知名的小地方
03:05
to go and be part of this amazing mission.
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只为了能成为这伟大任务的一部分。
03:08
And we knew nothing about going to space.
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我们对飞上太空毫无经验。
03:10
We went from having literally put Alan Shepard in suborbital flight
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8年间，我们经历了从把埃伦谢帕德
03:13
to going to the moon in eight years,
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送进到次轨道到实现登月。
03:15
and the average age of the people that got us there was 26 years old.
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而且使这一切实现的幕后英雄们的平均年龄只有26岁。
03:21
They didn't know what couldn't be done.
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他们不知道什么是不可能的。
03:22
They had to make up everything.
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他们不得不凭空构想出所有东西 -
03:25
And that, my friend, is amazing motivation.
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朋友们，那真不可思议的动力！
03:27
This is Gene Cernan, a good friend of mine, saying,
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这是吉恩瑟曼，我的一个好朋友，他说过：
03:30
"If I can go to the moon" -- this is the last human on the moon so far --
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”如果我可以登上月球“，这是至今为止最后一个到过月球的人－
03:34
"nothing, nothing is impossible." But of course,
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”那么，没有，没有什么是不可能的。” 当然，
03:37
we've thought about the government always as the person taking us there.
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我们总是认为政府是才是那个带领我们进入太空的角色。
03:41
But I put forward here, the government is not going to get us there.
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但是我要在这里直接了当地说，政府不会实现这一切。
03:45
The government is unable to take the risks required to open up this precious frontier.
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政府承受不起开拓这宝贵的空间前沿所必须负担的风险。
03:50
The shuttle is costing a billion dollars a launch.
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每一次太空梭的发射耗资10亿美金。
03:52
That's a pathetic number. It's unreasonable.
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那样荒唐的一个数字完全是不合理的！
03:55
We shouldn't be happy in standing for that.
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我们不应该容忍这样的现状。
03:58
One of the things that we did with the Ansari X PRIZE
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在安萨里X大奖过程中我们所做的是，
04:00
was take the challenge on that risk is OK, you know.
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挑战的这样的现状，坚持认为冒险是可以的。
04:04
As we are going out there and taking on a new frontier,
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当我们迈向新的前沿，
04:07
we should be allowed to risk.
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我们应该允许冒险。
04:09
In fact, anyone who says we shouldn't, you know,
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任何说我们不应该冒险的人，
04:12
just needs to be put aside, because, as we go forward,
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别去理他们就好了，因为我们在前进，
04:16
in fact, the greatest discoveries we will ever know is ahead of us.
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而史上的最伟大的发现就在我们前方。
04:20
The entrepreneurs in the space business are the furry mammals,
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在航天事业里的创业者都是些小角色，
04:23
and clearly the industrial-military complex --
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以波音，洛克希德公司与航天航空局
04:25
with Boeing and Lockheed and NASA -- are the dinosaurs.
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为代表的军工业显然就是行业中的巨无霸。
04:29
The ability for us to access these resources
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我们有获取到所需的资源
04:32
to gain planetary redundancy --
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来备份行星的能力－
04:34
we can now gather all the information, the genetic codes,
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现在我们可以收集到所有的信息、基因编码、
04:37
you know, everything stored on our databases,
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以及存放在数据库里的一切，
04:39
and back them up off the planet,
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在地球之外备份它们，
04:41
in case there would be one of those disastrous situations.
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以防止恐龙灭绝的情况再现。
04:45
The difficulty is getting there, and clearly, the cost to orbit is key.
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最困难的部分是到达太空，而上升到轨道的成本显然是其中的关键。
04:50
Once you're in orbit, you are two thirds of the way, energetically, to anywhere --
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一旦你上了轨道，从能量的角度来讲你已经完成了去往任何地方的三分之二过程了
04:53
the moon, to Mars. And today,
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无论是月球或者还是火星。目前，
04:56
there's only three vehicles -- the U.S. shuttle, the Russian Soyuz
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只有3种运输工具能把你送上太空－美国的太空梭，
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and the Chinese vehicle -- that gets you there.
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俄国的联盟号太空船以及中国的运载火箭。
05:02
Arguably, it's about 100 million dollars a person on the space shuttle.
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每一个人搭乘太空梭大约花费1亿美元。
05:07
One of the companies I started, Space Adventures, will sell you a ticket.
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我所创始的公司中的一家，太空冒险，可以卖给你一张机票。
05:10
We've done two so far. We'll be announcing two more on the Soyuz
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我们做过2次了，还会再发布2次花2000万美元
05:14
to go up to the space station for 20 million dollars.
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搭乘联盟号飞船前往空间站的机会。
05:17
But that's expensive and to understand what the potential is --
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不过的确是很昂贵，为了了解到它潜力所在－
05:21
(Laughter) --
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（笑声）
05:23
it is expensive. But people are willing to pay that!
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是蛮贵的，但是有人愿意支付这样的费用！
05:26
You know, one -- we have a very unique period in time today.
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今天我们处在一个非常独特的时代。
05:29
For the first time ever, we have enough wealth
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这是第一次我们有足够多的
05:31
concentrated in the hands of few individuals
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财富集中在少数的个人手里
05:33
and the technology accessible
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并且有足够的技术
05:35
that will allow us to really drive space exploration.
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能允许我们真的来展开太空探索。
05:39
But how cheap could it get? I want to give you the end point.
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但它究竟能够变得多便宜？我想给你一个底限。
05:43
We know -- 20 million dollars today, you can go and buy a ticket,
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我们知道今天你可以花2000万美元买一张票，
05:45
but how cheap could it get?
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但最终它可以变得多便宜呢？
05:47
Let's go back to high school physics here.
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让我们暂时回到高中物理课。
05:48
If you calculate the amount of potential energy, mgh,
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如果你计算下势能的总量，质量x重力加速度x高度,
05:52
to take you and your spacesuit up to a couple hundred miles,
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要把你和你的宇宙服送到几百英里高，
05:55
and then you accelerate yourself to 17,500 miles per hour --
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再把你加速到17,500英里美小时。
05:59
remember, that one half MV squared -- and you figure it out.
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还记得吗，二分之一质量乘以速度的平方，你就算出来了。
06:03
It's about 5.7 gigajoules of energy.
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大约是57亿万焦耳的能量。
06:07
If you expended that over an hour, it's about 1.6 megawatts.
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将其延长到一小时，大约是1.6兆瓦。
06:12
If you go to one of Vijay's micro-power sources,
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如果你到任何一间Vijay的电器行买电池
06:15
and they sell it to you for seven cents a kilowatt hour --
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他们会以7美分以千瓦每小时的价格卖给你－
06:17
anybody here fast in math?
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有谁算术比较快吗？
06:19
How much will it cost you and your spacesuit to go to orbit?
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把你和你的太空服一起送上轨道要花多少钱？
06:23
100 bucks. That's the price-improvement curve that --
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100美元。这价格改善曲线－
06:27
we need some breakthroughs in physics along the way,
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需要一些在物理上有一些突破就能实现，
06:29
I'll grant you that.
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我向你们保证。
06:32
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
06:33
But guys, if history has taught us anything,
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但是各位，如果我们能从历史里学到些什么，
06:37
it's that if you can imagine it, you will get there eventually.
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那就是任何你能想象到的东西，终究是会实现的。
06:40
I have no question that the physics,
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我非常肯定物理学和工程学上的
06:43
the engineering to get us down to the point
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进步会把价格降低到所有人
06:46
where all of us can afford orbital space flight is around the corner.
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都可以支付的起轨道空间飞行的程度。
06:50
The difficulty is that there needs to be a real marketplace to drive the investment.
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最困难的部分是需要一个真正能够吸引投资的市场环境。
06:55
Today, the Boeings and the Lockheeds don't spend a dollar
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今天波音和洛克希德在研发上
06:59
of their own money in R&D.
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自己根本不花一元钱。
07:01
It's all government research dollars, and very few of those.
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用的全部都是政府的研究经费。
07:04
And in fact, the large corporations,
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事实上，大企业
07:06
the governments, can't take the risk.
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和政府是不敢冒险的。
07:08
So we need what I call an exothermic economic reaction in space.
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所以我们需要我所谓的太空经济放热效应。
07:12
Today's commercial markets worldwide, global commercial launch market?
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今天全球商业市场，全球商业火箭发射的市场有多大？
07:16
12 to 15 launches per year.
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每年12到15次。
07:19
Number of commercial companies out there? 12 to 15 companies.
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而相关的商业公司的数量呢？12到15家。
07:21
One per company. That's not it. There's only one marketplace,
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每家发射一次。这不是市场。只有一个市场，
07:25
and I call them self-loading carbon payloads.
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我称之为自我装载的碳负重。
07:28
They come with their own money. They're easy to make.
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他们自己出钱，这钱也很好赚。
07:31
It's people. The Ansari X PRIZE was my solution,
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重要的是人。安萨里X大奖是我的解决方案。
07:35
reading about Lindbergh for creating the vehicles to get us there.
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为了建造能够送我们上太空的飞船我阅读了林德伯格的传记。
07:39
We offered 10 million dollars in cash for the first reusable ship,
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我们提供了1000万美元现金来征求第一艘可重复使用的飞船，
07:42
carry three people up to 100 kilometers,
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运载3个人到达10万米的高空，
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come back down, and within two weeks, make the trip again.
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回到地面然后在2周内，再出发一次。
07:47
Twenty-six teams from seven countries entered the competition,
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来自7个国家的26支队伍参与到竞争中，
07:51
spending between one to 25 million dollars each.
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每支队伍支出了100万到2500万美元不等的费用。
07:54
And of course, we had beautiful SpaceShipOne,
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当然，最终我们得到了漂亮的太空船一号，
07:56
which made those two flights and won the competition.
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成功地完成了两次飞行并赢得了比赛。
08:00
And I'd like to take you there, to that morning,
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我想把你们带到那里，回到那天早上，
08:03
for just a quick video.
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看一个短片。
08:21
(Video) Pilot: Release our fire.
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视频：驾驶员：释放火箭。
08:26
Richard Searfoss: Good luck.
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理查德 西亚弗斯（RS）：好运。
08:31
(Applause)
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（掌声）
08:46
RS: We've got an altitude call of 368,000 feet.
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RS:我们已经到达海拔368，000英尺的高度。
08:54
(Applause)
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（掌声）
08:57
RS: So in my official capacity as the chief judge
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RS:我以安萨里X大奖
09:00
of the Ansari X PRIZE competition,
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竞赛总裁判的权力，
09:02
I declare that Mojave Aerospace Ventures
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宣布莫哈维航太创投公司
09:04
has indeed earned the Ansari X PRIZE.
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赢得了安萨里X大奖。
09:07
(Applause)
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(掌声)
09:09
Peter Diamandis: Probably the most difficult thing that I had to do
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彼得：我必须要做的最困难的事情大概就是
09:11
was raise the capital for this. It was literally impossible.
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筹集比赛的资金。那几乎是个不可能的任务。
09:14
We went -- I went to 100, 200 CEOs, CMOs.
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我拜访了大约100到200个左右的首席执行官，首席市场官。
09:18
No one believed it was done. Everyone said, "Oh, what does NASA think?
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没人相信这会成功。每个人都问："哦，那航天航空局怎么讲？“
09:20
Well, people are going to die,
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“呃..可能会死人,”
09:22
how can you possibly going to put this forward?"
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“那你怎么还要继续做这件事情？”
09:24
I found a visionary family, the Ansari family, and Champ Car,
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我找到了一个很有远见的家族，安萨里家族和冠军系列赛，
09:27
and raised part of the money, but not the full 10 million.
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并且筹到了部分的钱，不过不是所需的全部1千万美金。
09:30
And what I ended up doing was going out to the insurance industry
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最后我只能去找保险公司谈
09:34
and buying a hole-in-one insurance policy.
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买了个“一杆进洞”险。
09:36
See, the insurance companies went to Boeing and Lockheed,
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保险公司跑到波音和洛克希德问：
09:38
and said, "Are you going to compete?" No.
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”你们会参赛吗？“ ”不会。“
09:40
"Are you going to compete?" No. "No one's going to win this thing."
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”你们会参加吗？“ ”不会。“ 那就没人会赢得这个比赛。
09:42
So, they took a bet that no one would win by January of '05,
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所以他们打了个赌没人会在1月5号前获胜，
09:47
and I took a bet that someone would win.
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而我打赌会有人赢。
09:51
(Applause)
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(掌声)
09:52
So -- and the best thing is they paid off and the check didn't bounce.
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最棒的事情就是他们付了钱而且那支票没有跳票。
09:58
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
09:59
We've had a lot of accomplishments
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我们达到了许多目标，
10:01
and it's been a tremendous success.
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这是一个巨大的成功。
10:03
One of the things I'm most happy about is that the SpaceShipOne
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我最高兴的事情之一就是太空船一号
10:09
is going to hang in Air and Space Museum,
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将会悬挂在航空航天博物馆，
10:11
next to the Spirit of St. Louis and the Wright Flyer.
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与圣路易斯精神号和莱特飞行器并列展出。
10:13
Isn't that great? (Applause)
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很棒吧？
10:18
So a little bit about the future, steps to space, what's available for you.
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讲一些关于未来迈向宇宙的步伐，你们会得到什么？
10:22
Today, you can go and experience weightless flights.
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今天你已经可以体验无重力飞行。
10:26
By '08, suborbital flights, the price tag for that, you know, on Virgin,
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到了08年，到维珍航空购买次轨道飞行
10:30
is going to be about 200,000.
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的票价大约是20万美元。
10:32
There are three or four other serious efforts that will bring the price down very rapidly,
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会有3到4个主要的措施来尽快地把价格降低，
10:35
I think, to about 25,000 dollars for a suborbital flight.
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我觉得差不多在2万5000美元左右一次的次轨道飞行。
10:39
Orbital flights -- we can take you to the space station.
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如果是轨道飞行，我们将能带你进入到空间站。
10:41
And then I truly believe, once a group is in orbit around the Earth --
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我坚信，一旦有一群人在地球轨道上，
10:45
I know if they don't do it, I am --
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我知道如果他们不做我就会做，
10:47
we're going to stockpile some fuel,
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我们会补充燃料，
10:49
make a beeline for the moon and grab some real estate.
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然后直冲月球去抢些地产。
10:52
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
10:53
Quick moment for the designers in the audience.
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很快地和观众里的设计师朋友们提一下。
10:56
We spent 11 years getting FAA approval to do zero gravity flights.
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我们花了11年时间取得了联邦航空局的许可来做无重力飞行。
11:00
Here are some fun images. Here's Burt Rutan
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这里有些有趣的图片，这是伯特·鲁坦
11:02
and my good friend Greg Meronek inside a zero gravity --
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和我的好朋友格雷格在无重力的环境下。
11:06
people think a zero gravity room,
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人们觉得在一间零重力的房间里，
11:08
there's a switch on there that turns it off --
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是有一个开关可以关掉它的。
11:10
but it's actually parabolic flight of an airplane.
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但这实际上通过让一架飞机做抛物线飞行来实现。
11:12
And turns out 7-Up has just done a little commercial that's airing this month.
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正好七喜刚拍完一个广告，准备这个月开始播出。
11:17
If we can get the audio up?
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能把音量调高一些吗？
11:19
(Video) Narrator: For a chance to win the first free ticket to space,
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视频：女声：为赢得第一张免费到太空的机票，
11:23
look for specially marked packages of Diet 7-Up.
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请留意有特殊标记的无糖七喜饮料。
11:27
When you want the taste that won't weigh you down,
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当你想要这个味道又不会增加你的体重，
11:29
the only way to go is up.
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唯一的方法就是往上走。
11:31
PD: That was filmed inside our airplane, and so, you can now do this.
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彼得：这是在我们的飞机内部拍摄的，现在你也可以这样做了。
11:36
We're based down in Florida.
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我们是在弗罗里达州。
11:38
Let me talk about the other thing I'm excited about.
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我们来聊一些别的我所感到兴奋的事。
11:40
The future of prizes. You know, prizes are a very old idea.
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有关赛事的未来，有奖竞赛是一个很久以前就存在的观念。
11:44
I had the pleasure of borrowing from the Longitude Prize
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我有幸能够借用经度奖和
11:47
and the Orteig Prize that put Lindbergh forward.
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奥泰格奖的概念，正是这两个奖项让林德伯格勇于冒险。
11:50
And we have made a decision in the X PRIZE Foundation
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我们在X大奖基金会我们做了一个决定，
11:53
to actually carry that concept forward into other technology areas,
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要把这个概念真正地传递到其他科技领域
11:57
and we just took on a new mission statement:
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并且我们刚刚决定了一个新的企业宗旨：
11:59
"to bring about radical breakthroughs in space
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为了全人类的福祉我们将在空间科技
12:02
and other technologies for the benefit of humanity."
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以及其他科技领域做出重大突破
12:05
And this is something that we're very excited about.
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这是我们为之兴奋的事情！
12:08
I showed this slide to Larry Page, who just joined our board.
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我把这个幻灯片展示给刚刚加入我们董事会的拉里佩奇看。
12:11
And you know, when you give to a nonprofit,
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当你向非赢利组织捐款，
12:13
you might have 50 cents on the dollar.
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每一个美元可能会产生50美分的实际作用。
12:15
If you have a matching grant, it's typically two or three to one.
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如果你运作配对补助金，那通常每一个美元会产生2到3元的作用。
12:18
If you put up a prize, you can get literally a 50 to one leverage on your dollars.
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而设立一个奖项，你可以在你的投资上得到50:1的杠杆效应。
12:23
And that's huge. And then he turned around and said,
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那真是非常惊人。接着他转身对我说，
12:25
"Well, if you back a prize institute that runs a 10 prize, you get 500 to one."
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那你资助一个设立了10个奖项的组织的时候，你就能有500:1的杠杆效应了。
12:29
I said, "Well, that's great."
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我说，恩，那真是太棒了！
12:31
So, we have actually -- are looking to turn the X PRIZE
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我们正寻求将X大奖转变为
12:34
into a world-class prize institute.
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世界级的奖项设立机构。
12:37
This is what happens when you put up a prize,
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这就是当你举办一个大奖赛会发生的事情，
12:40
when you announce it and teams start to begin doing trials.
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当你宣布之后团队就开始尝试。
12:44
You get publicity increase, and when it's won,
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关注度开始上升，当有人胜出比赛，
12:47
publicity shoots through the roof -- if it's properly managed --
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如果组织的好的话关注度就会直线上升。
12:49
and that's part of the benefits to a sponsor.
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这是作为赞助者的好处之一。
12:53
Then, when the prize is actually won, after it's moving,
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当比赛真正有了结果并且这结果得到进一步发展后，
12:57
you get societal benefits, you know, new technology, new capability.
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就会产生社会性的效益，比如新的科技，新的能力。
13:01
And the benefit to the sponsors
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而赞助者的所得到的好处
13:03
is the sum of the publicity and societal benefits over the long term.
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是长时期良好公共形象加上社会效益的总和。
13:06
That's our value proposition in a prize.
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这就是大奖赛中的价值部分。
13:09
If you were going to go and try to create SpaceShipOne,
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如果你想要尝试建造太空船一号
13:11
or any kind of a new technology,
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或任何一种新技术，
13:13
you have to fund that from the beginning
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必须要从一开始就有资金支持
13:16
and maintain that funding with an uncertain outcome.
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并且在不确定结果的情况下保持着这样的投资。
13:19
It may or may not happen. But if you put up a prize,
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结果或许会有或许不会。但是如果设立一个奖项，
13:22
the beautiful thing is, you know, it's a very small maintenance fee,
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其好处就是，你只需非常少的维护费用
13:25
and you pay on success.
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以及你只需要为成功的结果付钱。
13:27
Orteig didn't pay a dime out to the nine teams that went across --
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奥泰格并没有为尝试穿越
13:29
tried to go across the Atlantic,
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大西洋的九支团队掏任何钱，
13:31
and we didn't pay a dime until someone won the Ansari X PRIZE.
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在安萨里X大奖被赢得之前在我们也没掏什么钱。
13:34
So, prizes work great.
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所以有奖竞赛非常有效。
13:36
You know, innovators, the entrepreneurs out there,
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那些发明家，企业家，
13:38
you know that when you're going for a goal,
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当你追求一个目标的时候，
13:40
the first thing you have to do is believe
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第一件事就是你一定要相信
13:42
that you can do it yourself.
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能靠自己做到这一切。
13:44
Then, you've got to, you know, face potential public ridicule
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接着你必须要面对可能的来自公众的嘲弄
13:46
of -- that's a crazy idea, it'll never work.
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那是个疯狂的想法，它不会实现的。
13:48
And then you have to convince others,
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然后你不得不说服其他人，
13:51
so that they can, in fact, help you raise the funds,
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来让他们帮助你募集资金，
13:54
and then you've got to deal with the fact that you've got government bureaucracies
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接着你必须和政府相关部门还有
13:57
and institutions that don't want you to move those things forward,
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某些不希望你继续前进的公司打交道，
14:00
and you have to deal with failures. What a prize does,
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还要面对失败。 有奖竞赛所能做到的是，
14:02
what we've experienced a prize doing,
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我们所做过的奖项所做到的是，
14:04
is literally help to short-circuit or support all of these things,
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真正地帮助简短流程或者在所有的这些你需要面对的事情上支持你，
14:09
because a prize credentials the idea that this is a good idea.
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因为主办一个比赛就是确信这是一个好主意。
14:11
Well, it must be a good idea.
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它必定是个好主意。
14:13
Someone's offering 10 million dollars to go and do this thing.
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有人给1000万美金来做这个事情。
14:16
And each of these areas was something that we found
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我们发现安萨里X大奖
14:19
the Ansari X PRIZE helped short-circuit these for innovation.
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在这几个方面帮助缩短了创新流程。
14:24
So, as an organization, we put together a prize discovery process
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作为一个组织，我们建立起一个奖项开发流程
14:27
of how to come up with prizes and write the rules,
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来构思如何设置一个奖项并拟定规则，
14:30
and we're actually looking at creating prizes
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我们真正要做的是要创造
14:33
in a number of different categories.
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一批不同门类的奖项。
14:35
We're looking at attacking energy, environment, nanotechnology --
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我们希望向能源，环境，纳米科技领域进军－
14:40
and I'll talk about those more in a moment.
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稍后我会讲到那些。
14:42
And the way we're doing that is we're creating prize teams
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我们的方法是在X大奖赛里建立起
14:44
within the X PRIZE. We have a space prize team.
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大奖团队。我们有了一个太空奖团队。
14:47
We're going after an orbital prize.
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我们在着手设立一个轨道竞赛。
14:49
We are looking at a number of energy prizes.
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同时也在策划一些能源方面的竞赛。
14:52
Craig Venter has just joined our board
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克雷格凡特刚刚加入我们的董事会
14:54
and we're doing a rapid genome sequencing prize with him,
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我们会和他一起做一个快速基因组测序的竞赛。
14:56
we'll be announcing later this fall,
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我们会在这个秋季以后宣布，
14:58
about -- imagine being able to sequence anybody's DNA
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想象我们将能够以低于1000美元的费用来排序
15:02
for under 1,000 dollars, revolutionize medicine.
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任何人的基因，彻底变革传统医药。
15:05
And clean water, education, medicine and even looking at social entrepreneurship.
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还有洁净饮用水，教育，医疗甚至整个社会的企业家精神。
15:10
So my final slide here is, the most critical tool
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所以我这里最后一张幻灯片上呈现的就是用来解决人类所面临的
15:13
for solving humanity's grand challenges -- it isn't technology,
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最大的挑战的最最重要的工具。它既不是科技。
15:17
it isn't money, it's only one thing --
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也不是金钱。只有一样－
15:19
it's the committed, passionate human mind.
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就是人类那忘我投入，充满激情的精神。
15:22
(Applause)
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（鼓掌）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Peter Diamandis - Space activistPeter Diamandis runs the X Prize Foundation, which offers large cash incentive prizes to inventors who can solve grand challenges like space flight, low-cost mobile medical diagnostics and oil spill cleanup. He is the chair of Singularity University, which teaches executives and grad students about exponentially growing technologies.
Why you should listen
Watch the live onstage debate with Paul Gilding that followed Peter Diamandis' 2012 TEDTalk >>
Peter Diamandis is the founder and chair of the X Prize Foundation, a nonprofit whose mission is simply "to bring about radical breakthroughs for the benefit of humanity." By offering a big cash prize for a specific accomplishment, the X Prize stimulates competition and excitement around some of the planet's most important goals. Diamandis is also co-founder and chairman of Singularity University which runs Exponential Technologies Executive and Graduate Student Programs.
Diamandis' background is in space exploration -- before the X Prize, he ran a company that studied low-cost launching technologies and Zero-G which offers the public the chance to train like an astronaut and experience weightlessness. But though the X Prize's first $10 million went to a space-themed challenge, Diamandis' goal now is to extend the prize into health care, social policy, education and many other fields that could use a dose of competitive innovation.
Peter Diamandis | Speaker | TED.com