TEDGlobal 2005
Peter Diamandis: Our next giant leap
Peter Diamandis 談人類下一次的大躍進
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Peter Diamandis 說持續的探索太空，在道義上，是我們的當務之急。他並談到，如何利用 X Prize 和其他的獎勵制度，來幫助我們達成這個目標。
Peter Diamandis - Space activist
Peter Diamandis runs the X Prize Foundation, which offers large cash incentive prizes to inventors who can solve grand challenges like space flight, low-cost mobile medical diagnostics and oil spill cleanup. He is the chair of Singularity University, which teaches executives and grad students about exponentially growing technologies. Full bio
Peter Diamandis runs the X Prize Foundation, which offers large cash incentive prizes to inventors who can solve grand challenges like space flight, low-cost mobile medical diagnostics and oil spill cleanup. He is the chair of Singularity University, which teaches executives and grad students about exponentially growing technologies. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:18
My mission in life since I was a kid was,
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從孩提時代開始，我的人生使命就是，
00:21
and is, to take the rest of you into space.
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現在也還是，將你們大家帶上太空。
00:24
It's during our lifetime that we're going to take the Earth,
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就在我們這個世代，我們將要帶領地球，
00:28
take the people of Earth and transition off, permanently. And that's exciting.
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地球上的全人類，永遠的離開。這真是令人興奮的事呀！
00:32
In fact, I think it is a moral imperative
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事實上，我認為，由我們來擔任打開太空的先鋒，
00:34
that we open the space frontier.
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在道義上是當務之急。
00:37
You know, it's the first time that we're going to have a chance
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你知道的，這也是第一次，我們有能夠享受
00:39
to have planetary redundancy,
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星球不虞匱乏的機會。
00:41
a chance to, if you would, back up the biosphere.
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同時也是一個能夠備份整個生物圈的機會，如果你想要這麼做的話。
00:44
And if you think about space,
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如果你著眼太空，
00:47
everything we hold of value on this planet --
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我們在這個星球上所珍視的一切事物，
00:50
metals and minerals and real estate and energy -- is in infinite quantities in space.
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金屬、礦物、房地產和能源，在宇宙中都是無窮的。
00:54
In fact, the Earth is a crumb in a supermarket filled with resources.
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事實上，地球只是在充滿各種資源的大賣場中的一小塊殘渣。
00:59
The analogy for me is Alaska. You know, we bought Alaska.
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最我來說，最好的類比是阿拉斯加。你知道嗎，我們買下了阿拉斯加。
01:02
We Americans bought Alaska in the 1850s. It's called Seward's folly.
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我們美國人於 1850 年代買下了阿拉斯加。這件事在當時被稱為「蘇厄德所幹的大蠢事」。
01:06
We valued it as the number of seal pelts we could kill.
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我們用所能夠獵取到的海豹毛皮來衡量它的價值。
01:10
And then we discovered these things -- gold and oil and fishing and timber --
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然後我們發現了這些東西，金礦、石油、漁場以及林場，
01:14
and it became, you know, a trillion-dollar economy,
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然後它變成，你知道的，數以兆計的商機，
01:17
and now we take our honeymoons there. The same thing will happen in space.
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而現在，我們去那邊渡蜜月。同樣的事情將會在太空中發生。
01:20
We are on the verge of the greatest exploration
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我們就身處在人類有歷史記憶以來
01:23
that the human race has ever known.
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最偉大探索旅程的開端。
01:25
We explore for three reasons,
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人類探索的理由主要有三個，
01:27
the weakest of which is curiosity.
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其中最薄弱的理由是好奇心。
01:29
You know, it's funded NASA's budget up until now.
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你知道的，直到今日，一直都是好奇心在支撐航太總署的經費來源，
01:33
Some images from Mars, 1997.
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一些 1997 年，攝於火星的影像。
01:36
In fact, I think in the next decade, without any question,
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事實上，我認為不容懷疑地，在下一個世代，
01:38
we will discover life on Mars and find that it is literally ubiquitous
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我們將會發現火星上的生物，並發現生命充斥在
01:42
under the soils and different parts of that planet.
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那星球的土壤之下或其他不同的地方。
01:45
The stronger motivator, the much stronger motivator, is fear.
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更強力一點的動機，有力的多，是恐懼。
01:48
It drove us to the moon. We -- literally in fear -- with the Soviet Union
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恐懼讓我們登上了月球。我們當時是滿懷恐懼的與蘇聯在進行
01:52
raced to the moon. And we have these huge rocks,
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登月競賽。我們有這些巨大的隕石，
01:56
you know, killer-sized rocks in the hundreds of thousands or millions out there,
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你們都知道，成千上萬，甚至上百萬足以毀滅世界的大隕石，在外面太空的某處，
02:01
and while the probability is very small,
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雖然與地球發生碰撞的可能性微乎其微，
02:03
the impact, figured in literally,
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但是如果真的發生碰撞，
02:05
of one of these hitting the Earth is so huge
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其後果又是如此的巨大，
02:08
that to spend a small fraction looking, searching,
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因此花費一小部份時間與精力去觀看、尋找、
02:11
preparing to defend, is not unreasonable.
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做好防禦的準備，並非不合理。
02:13
And of course, the third motivator,
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當然最後，第三個動機，
02:15
one near and dear to my heart as an entrepreneur, is wealth.
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身為一個創業家，與我心靈最靠近也最契合的動機就是財富。
02:19
In fact, the greatest wealth. If you think about these other asteroids,
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事實上，是最大的財富。如果你思考關於另外的這些小行星，
02:23
there's a class of the nickel iron,
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他們屬於鎳鐵類的小行星，
02:25
which in platinum-group metal markets alone
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光是它的白金族金屬含量，
02:27
are worth something like 20 trillion dollars,
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市值就大約廿兆美元，
02:29
if you can go out and grab one of these rocks.
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只要你能夠飛出去，然後採集其中一顆回來。
02:31
My plan is to actually buy puts on the precious metal market,
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我的計畫事實上是投資貴重金屬市場，
02:34
and then actually claim that I'm going to go out and get one.
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然後向大家宣布我將會飛出去帶一顆小行星回來。
02:36
And that will fund the actual mission to go and get one.
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這就足夠資助真正的計畫出發然後成功達成目標。
02:39
But fear, curiosity and greed have driven us.
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但是恐懼、好奇心與貪婪一直驅動著我們。
02:42
And for me, this is -- I'm the short kid on the right.
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對於我個人，這是 — 我是右邊那個矮個子的孩子 —
02:46
This was -- my motivation was actually during Apollo.
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我的動機事實上是從太陽神（阿波羅）太空計畫開始的。
02:50
And Apollo was one of the greatest motivators ever.
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阿波羅計畫是有史以來最大的驅動力之一。
02:52
If you think about what happened at the turn of -- early 1960s,
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如果你想想 1960 年代初發生了什麼事，
02:58
on May 25, JFK said, "We're going to go to the moon."
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該年五月廿五日，約翰•甘迺迪宣佈：「我們要登上月球。」
03:02
And people left their jobs and they went to obscure locations
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然後人們離開了他們原本的工作，搬去一些不知名的地方，
03:05
to go and be part of this amazing mission.
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只為了親身參與這偉大的任務，見證歷史。
03:08
And we knew nothing about going to space.
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但是我們那時對如何上太空一無所知，
03:10
We went from having literally put Alan Shepard in suborbital flight
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但是從我們將艾倫•謝潑德送上亞軌道開始的八年內，
03:13
to going to the moon in eight years,
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我們就成功地登上了月球，
03:15
and the average age of the people that got us there was 26 years old.
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而那群成功使人類登上月球的幕後英雄們，平均年齡才 26 歲，
03:21
They didn't know what couldn't be done.
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他們不知道什麼是不可能。
03:22
They had to make up everything.
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他們必須憑空想像出所有可能會發生的事，
03:25
And that, my friend, is amazing motivation.
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我的朋友呀，那真是一個不可思議的動力！
03:27
This is Gene Cernan, a good friend of mine, saying,
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我的一個好朋友尤金•塞爾南曾這麼說，
03:30
"If I can go to the moon" -- this is the last human on the moon so far --
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「如果我能登上月球，」附帶一提，他是目前曾踏上過月球的最後一人，
03:34
"nothing, nothing is impossible." But of course,
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「那麼，沒有，沒有任何事情是不可能的。」
03:37
we've thought about the government always as the person taking us there.
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但是當然，我們一值認為應該由政府帶領我們上太空。
03:41
But I put forward here, the government is not going to get us there.
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但是我在這裡直接了當地跟你們說，政府不會再度帶領我們成功的。
03:45
The government is unable to take the risks required to open up this precious frontier.
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政府無法接受打開這寶貴的邊境大門所需負擔的風險。
03:50
The shuttle is costing a billion dollars a launch.
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每次的太空梭發射都要花費數十億美元，
03:52
That's a pathetic number. It's unreasonable.
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這是個可悲的數字，完全不合理，
03:55
We shouldn't be happy in standing for that.
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我們對於這種現狀不應該感到高興。
03:58
One of the things that we did with the Ansari X PRIZE
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我們在 Ansari X PRIZE 所做的事情之一就是
04:00
was take the challenge on that risk is OK, you know.
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認為接受這個風險是合理的挑戰。
04:04
As we are going out there and taking on a new frontier,
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既然我們要向新領域挑戰邁進，
04:07
we should be allowed to risk.
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我們應該容許冒險。
04:09
In fact, anyone who says we shouldn't, you know,
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事實上，任何說我們不應該這麼做的人，你知道嗎，
04:12
just needs to be put aside, because, as we go forward,
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不要理他們就是了，因為當我們在向前邁進的時候，
04:16
in fact, the greatest discoveries we will ever know is ahead of us.
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事實上，料想不到的偉大發現就在前方等著我們呢！
04:20
The entrepreneurs in the space business are the furry mammals,
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太空產業的創業家是有毛皮的哺乳動物，
04:23
and clearly the industrial-military complex --
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而明顯的，業界與軍方的複合體，
04:25
with Boeing and Lockheed and NASA -- are the dinosaurs.
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像是波音、洛克希德和太空總署則是恐龍。
04:29
The ability for us to access these resources
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我們使用這些資源
04:32
to gain planetary redundancy --
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以求星球不虞愧乏的能力，
04:34
we can now gather all the information, the genetic codes,
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我們現在可以取得一切資訊、遺傳密碼，
04:37
you know, everything stored on our databases,
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你知道的，儲存在我們資料庫中的一切，
04:39
and back them up off the planet,
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然後將他們在地球之外備份，
04:41
in case there would be one of those disastrous situations.
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以預防這些重大災難事件的發生。
04:45
The difficulty is getting there, and clearly, the cost to orbit is key.
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困難之處在於抵達那邊，而很明顯的，關鍵是進入環地軌道的花費。
04:50
Once you're in orbit, you are two thirds of the way, energetically, to anywhere --
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一旦你進入環地軌道，你就已經成功 2/3 了，就能源上來說，不論你想去哪，
04:53
the moon, to Mars. And today,
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就今天的能力來說，可能是去月球或是火星，
04:56
there's only three vehicles -- the U.S. shuttle, the Russian Soyuz
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只有三種載具，包括美國太空梭、俄國聯盟號飛船
05:00
and the Chinese vehicle -- that gets you there.
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與中國的太空載具，這些都能帶你上環地軌道。
05:02
Arguably, it's about 100 million dollars a person on the space shuttle.
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可以說，乘坐太空梭的成本是每人一億美元，
05:07
One of the companies I started, Space Adventures, will sell you a ticket.
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我創立的其中一家公司，太空探險，提供售票服務。
05:10
We've done two so far. We'll be announcing two more on the Soyuz
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到目前為止，我們已經服務過兩位客戶，我們將會宣佈另外兩位將搭乘
05:14
to go up to the space station for 20 million dollars.
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聯盟號飛船上太空站，票價兩千萬美元。
05:17
But that's expensive and to understand what the potential is --
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這非常昂貴，而了解科技潛力的代價，
05:21
(Laughter) --
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（笑聲）
05:23
it is expensive. But people are willing to pay that!
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是很貴的。但是人們願意出這個錢！
05:26
You know, one -- we have a very unique period in time today.
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你知道的，其一，今日我們處在一個非常特別的時代，
05:29
For the first time ever, we have enough wealth
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有史以來第一次，我們有足夠的財富
05:31
concentrated in the hands of few individuals
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集中在少數幾個人手上，
05:33
and the technology accessible
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不但如此，科技的進展
05:35
that will allow us to really drive space exploration.
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也將使我們能夠真正的起動太空探索。
05:39
But how cheap could it get? I want to give you the end point.
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但是成本能壓到多低？我想要給你們一個底線。
05:43
We know -- 20 million dollars today, you can go and buy a ticket,
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我們知道，今天，兩千萬美元，你能買到一張票，
05:45
but how cheap could it get?
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但是票價將能降到多低？
05:47
Let's go back to high school physics here.
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現在，讓我們複習一下高中物理。
05:48
If you calculate the amount of potential energy, mgh,
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如果你計算所需的位能，質量×重力加速度×高度，
05:52
to take you and your spacesuit up to a couple hundred miles,
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如果要將你連同你的太空裝送上數百英哩的高空，
05:55
and then you accelerate yourself to 17,500 miles per hour --
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那麼你必須要加速至每小時一萬七千五百英哩的速度。
05:59
remember, that one half MV squared -- and you figure it out.
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只要記得，把所需的位能轉換為動能 — ½MV平方 — 你就可以算出來了。
06:03
It's about 5.7 gigajoules of energy.
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那大約是五千七百兆焦耳的能量，
06:07
If you expended that over an hour, it's about 1.6 megawatts.
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如果你在一小時內很均勻的消耗掉這些能量，大約等於一兆六千瓦的功率。
06:12
If you go to one of Vijay's micro-power sources,
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如果你去 Vijay's電器行買電池，
06:15
and they sell it to you for seven cents a kilowatt hour --
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他們每千瓦小時的電力賣你七分錢，
06:17
anybody here fast in math?
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在場誰的心算比較快？
06:19
How much will it cost you and your spacesuit to go to orbit?
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那麼，將你連同你的太空裝一起送上軌道大概需要多少錢？
06:23
100 bucks. That's the price-improvement curve that --
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只要一百美元。這個成本進步曲線，
06:27
we need some breakthroughs in physics along the way,
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必須伴隨著某些物理學上的重大突破，才有可能達成，
06:29
I'll grant you that.
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我向你們保證。
06:32
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
06:33
But guys, if history has taught us anything,
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但是各位，如果我們有從歷史中學習到什麼，
06:37
it's that if you can imagine it, you will get there eventually.
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那就是只要你敢於夢想，夢想終究會實現。
06:40
I have no question that the physics,
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我一點都不懷疑藉由物理學跟
06:43
the engineering to get us down to the point
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工程學上面的進展，人人都負擔得起的
06:46
where all of us can afford orbital space flight is around the corner.
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軌道太空飛行在不遠的未來就能達成。
06:50
The difficulty is that there needs to be a real marketplace to drive the investment.
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困難之處在於，必須要有真正的市場需求，才能吸引投資。
06:55
Today, the Boeings and the Lockheeds don't spend a dollar
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今日，波音和洛克希德並沒有花任何一分
06:59
of their own money in R&D.
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他們自己的錢在研發上。
07:01
It's all government research dollars, and very few of those.
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全部都是政府的研究補助金費，和少數這些。
07:04
And in fact, the large corporations,
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而且事實上，大企業們和
07:06
the governments, can't take the risk.
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政府，不敢冒險。
07:08
So we need what I call an exothermic economic reaction in space.
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所以我們需要我稱為太空經濟學上的放熱反應。
07:12
Today's commercial markets worldwide, global commercial launch market?
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今日全球商業市場，全球新商業市場的發展，
07:16
12 to 15 launches per year.
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大約是每年 12 到 15 個。
07:19
Number of commercial companies out there? 12 to 15 companies.
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現在業界所存在的公司數量？12 到 15 家公司。
07:21
One per company. That's not it. There's only one marketplace,
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每家公司一個，還不只這樣，只存在一個市場，
07:25
and I call them self-loading carbon payloads.
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我稱他們為自我裝載的碳酬載。
07:28
They come with their own money. They're easy to make.
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他們有他們自己的錢，成立這樣的公司很簡單。
07:31
It's people. The Ansari X PRIZE was my solution,
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這就是人性。Ansari X PRIZE 是我對這個問題的解答，
07:35
reading about Lindbergh for creating the vehicles to get us there.
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閱讀林白的傳記，給了我靈感，讓我對如何建造太空船有了點子。
07:39
We offered 10 million dollars in cash for the first reusable ship,
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我們懸賞一千萬美元現金，徵求第一架可重複使用，
07:42
carry three people up to 100 kilometers,
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能承載三人到一百公里高空，
07:44
come back down, and within two weeks, make the trip again.
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並能在兩星期內完成兩次這樣旅程的太空船。
07:47
Twenty-six teams from seven countries entered the competition,
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七個國家共廿六個隊伍參與了這個競賽，
07:51
spending between one to 25 million dollars each.
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每一個隊伍的研發成本從一百萬到兩千五百萬不等。
07:54
And of course, we had beautiful SpaceShipOne,
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然後當然，美麗的太空船一號（SpaceShipOne）誕生，
07:56
which made those two flights and won the competition.
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它成功的完成了兩次飛行，並贏得了比賽。
08:00
And I'd like to take you there, to that morning,
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現在我想帶你們回到那邊，回到那天早上，
08:03
for just a quick video.
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給你們看一段短片。
08:21
(Video) Pilot: Release our fire.
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影片：駕駛：釋放火箭。
08:26
Richard Searfoss: Good luck.
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祝好運。
08:31
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
08:46
RS: We've got an altitude call of 368,000 feet.
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我們到達了三十六萬八千英呎高度。
08:54
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
08:57
RS: So in my official capacity as the chief judge
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現在我以總裁判的名義正式宣佈
09:00
of the Ansari X PRIZE competition,
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Ansari X PRIZE 競賽，
09:02
I declare that Mojave Aerospace Ventures
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由莫哈維航太創投公司獲得，
09:04
has indeed earned the Ansari X PRIZE.
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正式贏得 Ansari X PRIZE 。
09:07
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
09:09
Peter Diamandis: Probably the most difficult thing that I had to do
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彼得：我必須要完成的最困難的事，大概就是
09:11
was raise the capital for this. It was literally impossible.
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為這個競賽籌措資金了，那是幾乎不可能的事。
09:14
We went -- I went to 100, 200 CEOs, CMOs.
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我們拜訪了，我拜訪了一百、兩百位大企業執行長，業務總經理，
09:18
No one believed it was done. Everyone said, "Oh, what does NASA think?
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沒有人相信這可以被完成。每個人都問道：「喔，太空總署的看法如何？」
09:20
Well, people are going to die,
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這個嗎，有人可能因此而喪命，
09:22
how can you possibly going to put this forward?"
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你怎麼可以還這麼執迷不悟，蠻幹下去？
09:24
I found a visionary family, the Ansari family, and Champ Car,
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直到我找到了一個有遠見的家族，Champ Car 大賽的 Ansari 家族，
09:27
and raised part of the money, but not the full 10 million.
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並籌措到了部份的經費，而不是所需的全部一億美元。
09:30
And what I ended up doing was going out to the insurance industry
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最後我所能做的只剩下去跟保險公司
09:34
and buying a hole-in-one insurance policy.
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購買所謂的「一桿進洞」險。
09:36
See, the insurance companies went to Boeing and Lockheed,
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發生了什麼事，這些保險公司去問了波音跟洛克希德，
09:38
and said, "Are you going to compete?" No.
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你要參加競賽嗎？不。
09:40
"Are you going to compete?" No. "No one's going to win this thing."
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你要參加競賽嗎？不。所以他們覺得不可能有人贏得這個獎。
09:42
So, they took a bet that no one would win by January of '05,
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所以，他們在 2005 年一月跟我賭沒有人能獲得這個獎，
09:47
and I took a bet that someone would win.
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而我賭一定有人可以贏得。
09:51
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
09:52
So -- and the best thing is they paid off and the check didn't bounce.
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所以，最棒的事是，由他們出錢，而且支票沒有跳票。
09:58
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
09:59
We've had a lot of accomplishments
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我們達成了很多目標，
10:01
and it's been a tremendous success.
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而這是一個巨大的成功。
10:03
One of the things I'm most happy about is that the SpaceShipOne
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對我來說，感到最開心的一件事是，太空船一號
10:09
is going to hang in Air and Space Museum,
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將會被掛在航空與太空博物館，
10:11
next to the Spirit of St. Louis and the Wright Flyer.
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與聖路易士精神號跟萊特飛行器並列。
10:13
Isn't that great? (Applause)
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很棒吧！
10:18
So a little bit about the future, steps to space, what's available for you.
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接下來，我們來談談未來，向太空邁進，什麼東西在等著你？
10:22
Today, you can go and experience weightless flights.
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今天你已經可以體驗無重力飛行，
10:26
By '08, suborbital flights, the price tag for that, you know, on Virgin,
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08 年，亞軌道飛行，這個飛行的票價是，你知道的，維珍公司定的，
10:30
is going to be about 200,000.
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將會是廿萬美元。
10:32
There are three or four other serious efforts that will bring the price down very rapidly,
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有三到四個一連串的措施將會使票價很快速的降下來，
10:35
I think, to about 25,000 dollars for a suborbital flight.
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大概會降到每人每次亞軌道飛行兩萬五千美元的目標。
10:39
Orbital flights -- we can take you to the space station.
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軌道飛行，我們可以帶你到國際太空站。
10:41
And then I truly believe, once a group is in orbit around the Earth --
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然後我真的相信，一旦有一群人在地球的軌道上，
10:45
I know if they don't do it, I am --
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我知道如果他們不做，我一定會做，
10:47
we're going to stockpile some fuel,
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我們將開始囤積燃料，
10:49
make a beeline for the moon and grab some real estate.
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開始經營到月球的交通，然後在月球上買房地產。
10:52
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
10:53
Quick moment for the designers in the audience.
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很快的跟聽眾裡的設計師提一下，
10:56
We spent 11 years getting FAA approval to do zero gravity flights.
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我們花了十一年，才獲得美國聯邦航空局的認證核可經營無重力飛行。
11:00
Here are some fun images. Here's Burt Rutan
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這裡有一些有趣的照片。這是 Burt Rutan
11:02
and my good friend Greg Meronek inside a zero gravity --
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和我的好朋友 Greg Meronek 在無重力中的照片。
11:06
people think a zero gravity room,
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人們總是想像那是一個無重力房間，
11:08
there's a switch on there that turns it off --
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然後有一個開關，可以把它關掉，
11:10
but it's actually parabolic flight of an airplane.
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但是，事實上，這是在飛機上所做的拋物線飛行。
11:12
And turns out 7-Up has just done a little commercial that's airing this month.
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很巧的，七喜剛剛拍完一些廣告，這個月將會開始在電視上公開播放。
11:17
If we can get the audio up?
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我們能將聲音放大聲一點嗎？
11:19
(Video) Narrator: For a chance to win the first free ticket to space,
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影片：女：贏得第一張免費到太空的票的機會，
11:23
look for specially marked packages of Diet 7-Up.
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請注意低糖七喜的特殊包裝。
11:27
When you want the taste that won't weigh you down,
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當你想要不會讓你增重的好口味，
11:29
the only way to go is up.
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唯一的途徑是往上。
11:31
PD: That was filmed inside our airplane, and so, you can now do this.
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彼得：這是在我們的飛機內拍攝的，而現在，你們也可以這樣做，
11:36
We're based down in Florida.
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我們的基地在佛羅里達。
11:38
Let me talk about the other thing I'm excited about.
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再來讓我談談一些其他令我感興趣的事物。
11:40
The future of prizes. You know, prizes are a very old idea.
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懸賞獎項的未來發展性。你知道的，懸賞是一個非常古老的概念。
11:44
I had the pleasure of borrowing from the Longitude Prize
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我有幸能夠借用經度獎
11:47
and the Orteig Prize that put Lindbergh forward.
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和奧泰格獎的概念，就是這兩個大獎讓林白勇於冒險。
11:50
And we have made a decision in the X PRIZE Foundation
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在 X PRIZE 基金會的我們做了一個決定，
11:53
to actually carry that concept forward into other technology areas,
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我們要將這個概念拓展到其他的科技領域，
11:57
and we just took on a new mission statement:
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我們剛剛決定了一個新的企業宗旨：
11:59
"to bring about radical breakthroughs in space
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我們將在太空和其他科技方面做出重大突破，
12:02
and other technologies for the benefit of humanity."
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並將其應用在全人類的福祉上。
12:05
And this is something that we're very excited about.
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這真的是件很令人興奮的事！
12:08
I showed this slide to Larry Page, who just joined our board.
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我將這張投影片給剛剛加入我們董事會的拉里•佩奇（Google 創始人之一）看過了。
12:11
And you know, when you give to a nonprofit,
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你知道的，當你把錢給非營利組織，
12:13
you might have 50 cents on the dollar.
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每一塊錢只能產生約五十分錢的實質效應。
12:15
If you have a matching grant, it's typically two or three to one.
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如果你有與之對應的補助經費，大概是二到三塊比一。
12:18
If you put up a prize, you can get literally a 50 to one leverage on your dollars.
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如果你懸賞，你的錢的效用可以被有效放大道五十比一。
12:23
And that's huge. And then he turned around and said,
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這是非常顯著的。然後拉里回過頭來說，
12:25
"Well, if you back a prize institute that runs a 10 prize, you get 500 to one."
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那麼，如果你資助一個旗下有十個獎項在運作的機構，你就會得到五百比一。
12:29
I said, "Well, that's great."
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我說，是呀，那真是太好了。
12:31
So, we have actually -- are looking to turn the X PRIZE
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所以，事實上我們正在尋求將 X PRIZE
12:34
into a world-class prize institute.
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轉變為世界一流的獎項設立機構。
12:37
This is what happens when you put up a prize,
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這是當你設立獎項後會發生的事情，
12:40
when you announce it and teams start to begin doing trials.
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當你宣佈之後，隊伍們紛紛開始嘗試。
12:44
You get publicity increase, and when it's won,
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你的媒體曝光率增加，然後當獎項被贏得時，
12:47
publicity shoots through the roof -- if it's properly managed --
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媒體曝光率破表，如果你運籌得當，
12:49
and that's part of the benefits to a sponsor.
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這就是贊助者福利的一部分。
12:53
Then, when the prize is actually won, after it's moving,
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然後，當獎項真正被贏得，當它開始運作的時候，
12:57
you get societal benefits, you know, new technology, new capability.
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你獲得社會福利，你知道的，像是新科技，新能力。
13:01
And the benefit to the sponsors
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而贊助者的福利會是
13:03
is the sum of the publicity and societal benefits over the long term.
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長期的媒體曝光率與社會福利。
13:06
That's our value proposition in a prize.
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這就是我們對獎項估價的方法。
13:09
If you were going to go and try to create SpaceShipOne,
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如果你要嘗試去建造太空船一號
13:11
or any kind of a new technology,
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或是任何的新科技，
13:13
you have to fund that from the beginning
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你必須從一開始就投資資金，
13:16
and maintain that funding with an uncertain outcome.
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並且要在不確定結果的狀況下想辦法維持穩定的資金來源。
13:19
It may or may not happen. But if you put up a prize,
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這種情況能發生與否都有可能。但是如果你只是設立獎項，
13:22
the beautiful thing is, you know, it's a very small maintenance fee,
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美妙之處在於，你知道的，只需要非常小額的維護費用
13:25
and you pay on success.
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而且成功才需要付款。
13:27
Orteig didn't pay a dime out to the nine teams that went across --
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奧泰格沒有給那些橫跨，
13:29
tried to go across the Atlantic,
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嘗試橫跨大西洋的九隻隊伍一分一毛，
13:31
and we didn't pay a dime until someone won the Ansari X PRIZE.
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我們也一樣，一毛都不用出，直到真的有人贏得了 Ansari X PRIZE。
13:34
So, prizes work great.
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所以，懸賞的成效非常好。
13:36
You know, innovators, the entrepreneurs out there,
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你知道的，外面廣大的發明家、創業家，
13:38
you know that when you're going for a goal,
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你知道當你想要達成某個目標的時候，
13:40
the first thing you have to do is believe
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你所需要做的第一件事就是
13:42
that you can do it yourself.
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相信你能靠自己的力量達成。
13:44
Then, you've got to, you know, face potential public ridicule
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然後，你必須要，你知道，面對可能的公開冷嘲熱諷，
13:46
of -- that's a crazy idea, it'll never work.
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例如：這是個瘋狂的點子，永遠不可能成功的。
13:48
And then you have to convince others,
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然後你必須說服別人，
13:51
so that they can, in fact, help you raise the funds,
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讓他們能夠幫助你籌措資金，
13:54
and then you've got to deal with the fact that you've got government bureaucracies
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然後你必須想辦法與政府可能的官僚作風周旋，
13:57
and institutions that don't want you to move those things forward,
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或者某些企業不希望你推動這些計畫，
14:00
and you have to deal with failures. What a prize does,
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再來你必須面對失敗。一個獎項所做的，
14:02
what we've experienced a prize doing,
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我們體驗到這個獎項所成就的，
14:04
is literally help to short-circuit or support all of these things,
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基本上是幫助打通或是支持這些事情，
14:09
because a prize credentials the idea that this is a good idea.
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因為獎項基本上替這些想法或點子背書了，證明這是個好主意。
14:11
Well, it must be a good idea.
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這個嘛，它非得是個好主意不可。
14:13
Someone's offering 10 million dollars to go and do this thing.
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某人願意提供一億美元去促進達成這事。
14:16
And each of these areas was something that we found
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在這些領域中，我們都發現
14:19
the Ansari X PRIZE helped short-circuit these for innovation.
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Ansari X PRIZE 幫助縮短了這些創新科技的研發過程。
14:24
So, as an organization, we put together a prize discovery process
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因此，作為一個組織，我們寫下了創立一個獎項的過程，
14:27
of how to come up with prizes and write the rules,
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其中解釋了我們如何設立獎項與訂定獎項遊戲規則，
14:30
and we're actually looking at creating prizes
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事實上我們正在研究
14:33
in a number of different categories.
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在許多不同的領域創立獎項。
14:35
We're looking at attacking energy, environment, nanotechnology --
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我們正在研究能夠解決能源、環境、奈米科技，
14:40
and I'll talk about those more in a moment.
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等等我將會更詳細說明這些。
14:42
And the way we're doing that is we're creating prize teams
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我們將要做的是，我們在 X PRIZE 機構內創立
14:44
within the X PRIZE. We have a space prize team.
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獎項專案小組。我們有太空獎項小組，
14:47
We're going after an orbital prize.
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我們正在研究一個環軌道獎項。
14:49
We are looking at a number of energy prizes.
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我們同時也在研究數個能源獎項。
14:52
Craig Venter has just joined our board
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克萊格•凡特剛剛加入我們的董事會，
14:54
and we're doing a rapid genome sequencing prize with him,
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我們正在和他合作創立一個新的快速基因體定序獎項。
14:56
we'll be announcing later this fall,
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今年秋天我們就會公開宣佈，
14:58
about -- imagine being able to sequence anybody's DNA
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想像一下，能夠用一千美元以下的成本
15:02
for under 1,000 dollars, revolutionize medicine.
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完整的定序任何人的基因，這將造成醫學革命。
15:05
And clean water, education, medicine and even looking at social entrepreneurship.
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還有純淨的水、教育、醫藥，我們甚至還研究社會創業獎。
15:10
So my final slide here is, the most critical tool
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因此我的最後一張投影片，
15:13
for solving humanity's grand challenges -- it isn't technology,
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指出了解決人類社會重大難題最關鍵的工具，不是科技、
15:17
it isn't money, it's only one thing --
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更不是錢。只有一個重點，
15:19
it's the committed, passionate human mind.
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那就是人類熱誠投入的心。
15:22
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Peter Diamandis - Space activistPeter Diamandis runs the X Prize Foundation, which offers large cash incentive prizes to inventors who can solve grand challenges like space flight, low-cost mobile medical diagnostics and oil spill cleanup. He is the chair of Singularity University, which teaches executives and grad students about exponentially growing technologies.
Why you should listen
Watch the live onstage debate with Paul Gilding that followed Peter Diamandis' 2012 TEDTalk >>
Peter Diamandis is the founder and chair of the X Prize Foundation, a nonprofit whose mission is simply "to bring about radical breakthroughs for the benefit of humanity." By offering a big cash prize for a specific accomplishment, the X Prize stimulates competition and excitement around some of the planet's most important goals. Diamandis is also co-founder and chairman of Singularity University which runs Exponential Technologies Executive and Graduate Student Programs.
Diamandis' background is in space exploration -- before the X Prize, he ran a company that studied low-cost launching technologies and Zero-G which offers the public the chance to train like an astronaut and experience weightlessness. But though the X Prize's first $10 million went to a space-themed challenge, Diamandis' goal now is to extend the prize into health care, social policy, education and many other fields that could use a dose of competitive innovation.
Peter Diamandis | Speaker | TED.com