TEDxOilSpill
Lisa Margonelli: The political chemistry of oil
莉莎 马格内莉：石油政治的化学结构
Filmed:
Readability: 3.5
581,463 views
在海湾石油泄漏的余波中，莉莎 马格内莉说钻井暂缓和行政罢黜实际是一个噱头，却忽略了整个事件真正的中心：过度的石油消费。她将与我们分享一个大胆的计划--让美国逐渐摆脱对石油的依赖，让消费者直面石油的真实价值。
Lisa Margonelli - Writer
Director of the New America Foundation Energy Policy Initiative, Lisa Margonelli writes about the global culture and economy of energy. Full bio
Director of the New America Foundation Energy Policy Initiative, Lisa Margonelli writes about the global culture and economy of energy. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
So I'm going to talk to you about you about the political chemistry of oil spills
0
0
3000
我想谈谈石油泄漏的政治化学结构，
00:18
and why this is an incredibly important,
1
3000
3000
以及为什么这一点很重要，
00:21
long, oily, hot summer,
2
6000
2000
冗长油腻的酷暑，
00:23
and why we need to keep ourselves from getting distracted.
3
8000
3000
我们又为什么需要保持注意力集中。
00:26
But before I talk about the political chemistry,
4
11000
2000
但在我谈政治之前，
00:28
I actually need to talk about the chemistry of oil.
5
13000
3000
让我先讲讲石油的化学性质。
00:31
This is a photograph from when I visited
6
16000
2000
这张照片摄于
00:33
Prudhoe Bay in Alaska in 2002
7
18000
3000
二零零二年我探访阿拉斯加的普拉德霍湾时
00:36
to watch the Minerals Management Service
8
21000
2000
我当时是去去察看美国矿产管理局
00:38
testing their ability
9
23000
2000
测试他们
00:40
to burn oil spills in ice.
10
25000
2000
在冰里燃烧石油泄漏的能力。
00:42
And what you see here is, you see a little bit of crude oil,
11
27000
2000
现在你可以看到一些原油，
00:44
you see some ice cubes,
12
29000
2000
你可以看到一些冰块，
00:46
and you see two sandwich baggies of napalm.
13
31000
3000
你还可以看到两个塑胶袋装的凝固汽油。
00:49
The napalm is burning there quite nicely.
14
34000
2000
那些凝固汽油燃烧得很不错。
00:51
And the thing is, is that
15
36000
2000
这其实是说
00:53
oil is really an abstraction for us as the American consumer.
16
38000
3000
石油实际上对我们美国消费者来说是一个很抽象的东西。
00:56
We're four percent of the world's population;
17
41000
2000
我们占世界人口的百分之四；
00:58
we use 25 percent of the world's oil production.
18
43000
3000
我们使用世界石油生产量的百分之二十五。
01:01
And we don't really understand what oil is,
19
46000
3000
我们却并不知道什么是石油，
01:04
until you check out its molecules,
20
49000
2000
直到你测试了它的分子，
01:06
And you don't really understand that until you see this stuff burn.
21
51000
3000
直到你看到这个东西燃烧，你才会理解它。
01:09
So this is what happens as that burn gets going.
22
54000
2000
这就是燃烧时的情况。
01:11
It takes off. It's a big woosh.
23
56000
2000
然后它“呼”的一声，就熄灭了。
01:13
I highly recommend that you get a chance to see crude oil burn someday,
24
58000
3000
我强烈建议你找个机会去看看原油燃烧，
01:16
because you will never need to hear another poli sci lecture
25
61000
3000
因为你将永远不再需要去听
01:19
on the geopolitics of oil again.
26
64000
3000
关于石油的地缘政治学的政治科学讲座。
01:22
It'll just bake your retinas.
27
67000
2000
它将烘烤你的视网膜。
01:24
So there it is; the retinas are baking.
28
69000
2000
这就是，视网膜正在被烘烤。
01:26
Let me tell you a little bit about this chemistry of oil.
29
71000
3000
让我来给你们讲讲石油的化学成分。
01:29
Oil is a stew of hydrocarbon molecules.
30
74000
3000
石油是碳氢化合物分子的混合物。
01:32
It starts of with the very small ones,
31
77000
2000
它从非常小的分子开始，
01:34
which are one carbon, four hydrogen --
32
79000
2000
是一个碳，四个氢--
01:36
that's methane -- it just floats off.
33
81000
2000
那是甲烷--它会漂走。
01:38
Then there's all sorts of intermediate ones with middle amounts of carbon.
34
83000
3000
然后这些中间的分子含有中等含量的碳。
01:41
You've probably heard of benzene rings; they're very carcinogenic.
35
86000
3000
你大概听说过苯环；它们是高度致癌的。
01:44
And it goes all the way over
36
89000
2000
然后到了
01:46
to these big, thick, galumphy ones that have hundreds of carbons,
37
91000
2000
这些巨大的，密集的，笨重的分子含有数百个碳，
01:48
and they have thousands of hydrogens,
38
93000
2000
它们有数千个氢，
01:50
and they have vanadium and heavy metals and sulfur
39
95000
2000
它们还含有钒，重金属和硫磺
01:52
and all kinds of craziness hanging off the sides of them.
40
97000
2000
还有各种奇怪的分子悬挂在它们的侧面。
01:54
Those are called the asphaltenes; they're an ingredient in asphalt.
41
99000
3000
那些叫做沥青烯；它们是沥青的成分。
01:57
They're very important in oil spills.
42
102000
2000
它们在石油泄漏中十分的重要。
01:59
Let me tell you a little bit about
43
104000
2000
让我来给你们讲讲这些
02:01
the chemistry of oil in water.
44
106000
3000
在水中的石油的化学性质。
02:04
It is this chemistry that makes oil so disastrous.
45
109000
3000
正是这种化学性质导致石油具有极大的灾害性。
02:07
Oil doesn't sink, it floats.
46
112000
2000
石油不下沉，石油漂浮。
02:09
If it sank, it would be a whole different story as far as an oil spill.
47
114000
3000
如果它下沉，那石油泄漏将是一个完全不同的故事了。
02:12
And the other thing it does is it spreads out the moment it hits the water.
48
117000
3000
另外一件事就是当石油一接触到水便扩散开来。
02:15
It spreads out to be really thin,
49
120000
2000
它扩散到十分的薄，
02:17
so you have a hard time corralling it.
50
122000
2000
因此会很难将其围堵起来。
02:19
The next thing that happens
51
124000
2000
接下来发生的事情
02:21
is the light ends evaporate,
52
126000
3000
就是那些轻的物质会挥发，
02:24
and some of the toxic things float into the water column
53
129000
3000
一些有毒物质漂浮到水层中
02:27
and kill fish eggs
54
132000
2000
杀死鱼卵
02:29
and smaller fish and things like that, and shrimp.
55
134000
3000
和一些小鱼，小虾。
02:32
And then the asphaltenes -- and this is the crucial thing --
56
137000
2000
然后沥青烯--这是决定的东西--
02:34
the asphaltenes get whipped by the waves
57
139000
3000
沥青烯被波浪拍打成
02:37
into a frothy emulsion, something like mayonnaise.
58
142000
2000
充满泡沫的乳状液，像蛋黄酱一样。
02:39
It triples the amount
59
144000
2000
它增加三倍
02:41
of oily, messy goo that you have in the water,
60
146000
3000
那些在水中的油腻的，肮脏的粘状物的总量
02:44
and it makes it very hard to handle.
61
149000
2000
并且它使得很难去处理。
02:46
It also makes it very viscous.
62
151000
2000
它也使得它（泄漏的石油）变得很粘滞。
02:48
When the Prestige sank off the coast of Spain,
63
153000
3000
当威望号油轮在西班牙海岸沉没后，
02:51
there were big, floating cushions the size of sofa cushions
64
156000
3000
沙发垫大小的如胶状的石油层
02:54
of emulsified oil,
65
159000
2000
漂浮在海面，
02:56
with the consistency, or the viscosity, of chewing gum.
66
161000
2000
就像粘滞性的口香糖。
02:58
It's incredibly hard to clean up.
67
163000
2000
清理的困难程度让人难以置信。
03:00
And every single oil is different when it hits water.
68
165000
3000
并且每一滴接触到水面的油都不同。
03:03
When the chemistry of the oil and water
69
168000
2000
当石油和水的化学成分
03:05
also hits our politics,
70
170000
2000
同样地触及到政治，
03:07
it's absolutely explosive.
71
172000
2000
一场爆发是无法避免的。
03:09
For the first time, American consumers
72
174000
2000
美国消费者第一次，
03:11
will kind of see the oil supply chain in front of themselves.
73
176000
4000
直面石油供应链。
03:15
They have a "eureka!" moment,
74
180000
2000
他们会有“我发现了！”的一瞬间，
03:17
when we suddenly understand oil in a different context.
75
182000
3000
那一刻我们从另一个角度重新认识了石油。
03:20
So I'm going to talk just a little bit about the origin of these politics,
76
185000
3000
因此，我将简短的讲述一下这些政治的起源，
03:23
because it's really crucial to understanding
77
188000
2000
因为这对了解
03:25
why this summer is so important, why we need to stay focused.
78
190000
3000
为什么这个夏天是如此重要，为什么我们需要关注它至关重要。
03:28
Nobody gets up in the morning and thinks,
79
193000
2000
没有人早晨起来后想，
03:30
"Wow! I'm going to go buy
80
195000
2000
“哇！我要把一些三碳到十二碳的分子
03:32
some three-carbon-to-12-carbon molecules to put in my tank
81
197000
2000
装到我的油箱里
03:34
and drive happily to work."
82
199000
2000
然后开心地开车去上班。”
03:36
No, they think, "Ugh. I have to go buy gas.
83
201000
2000
不，他们想的是，“哎，我得去买汽油。
03:38
I'm so angry about it. The oil companies are ripping me off.
84
203000
2000
太生气了。这些石油公司分明是在敲竹杠。
03:40
They set the prices, and I don't even know.
85
205000
2000
我对他们如何决定价格毫不知情。
03:42
I am helpless over this."
86
207000
2000
太无助了。”
03:44
And this is what happens to us at the gas pump --
87
209000
2000
这就是我们在加油站所发生的事情。
03:46
and actually, gas pumps are specifically designed
88
211000
2000
实际上，加油站是被精心策划了的
03:48
to diffuse that anger.
89
213000
2000
目的是减轻我们的愤怒。
03:50
You might notice that many gas pumps, including this one,
90
215000
2000
你也许会发现很多加油站，包括这个，
03:52
are designed to look like ATMs.
91
217000
2000
看上去好像自动取款机。
03:54
I've talked to engineers. That's specifically to diffuse our anger,
92
219000
3000
我曾与工程师谈论过，这设计就是为了减轻我们的愤怒感，
03:57
because supposedly we feel good about ATMs.
93
222000
2000
因为我们天生对自动取款机有好感。
03:59
(Laughter)
94
224000
2000
（笑声）
04:01
That shows you how bad it is.
95
226000
2000
看看它有多么坏。
04:03
But actually, I mean, this feeling of helplessness
96
228000
2000
但是事实上，我所说的这种无助感
04:05
comes in because most Americans actually feel
97
230000
3000
是指大多数美国人认定
04:08
that oil prices are the result of a conspiracy,
98
233000
3000
汽油的价格是一种密谋，
04:11
not of the vicissitudes of the world oil market.
99
236000
3000
而非世界石油市场的盛衰。
04:14
And the thing is, too,
100
239000
2000
但要命的是，
04:16
is that we also feel very helpless about the amount that we consume,
101
241000
2000
我们对消费总量也一无所知，
04:18
which is somewhat reasonable,
102
243000
2000
这多少也合理，
04:20
because in fact, we have designed this system
103
245000
3000
实际上我们设计了这个系统，
04:23
where, if you want to get a job,
104
248000
3000
如果你想找个工作，
04:26
it's much more important to have a car that runs,
105
251000
3000
首先得有一辆能跑的车，
04:29
to have a job and keep a job, than to have a GED.
106
254000
3000
为了找到并维持这份工作，得有一个汽油发动机驱动装置(注：GED:Gasoline Engine Driven)
04:32
And that's actually very perverse.
107
257000
2000
其实这很荒谬。
04:34
Now there's another perverse thing about the way we buy gas,
108
259000
2000
另外一件反常的事情是关于我们买汽油
04:36
which is that we'd rather be doing anything else.
109
261000
2000
也就是我们宁可做点别的事情。
04:38
This is BP's gas station
110
263000
2000
这是英国石油公司BP（注：BP:British Petroleum)的加油站
04:40
in downtown Los Angeles.
111
265000
2000
在洛杉矶的市中心。
04:42
It is green. It is a shrine to greenishness.
112
267000
3000
它是绿色的，它仿佛一座绿色圣殿。
04:45
"Now," you think, "why would something so lame
113
270000
3000
现在请你想想，“为什么一些本无说服力的东西
04:48
work on people so smart?"
114
273000
2000
能如此巧妙地说服人们？”
04:50
Well, the reason is, is because, when we're buying gas,
115
275000
3000
原因在于：当我们买汽油时，
04:53
we're very invested in this sort of cognitive dissonance.
116
278000
3000
我们产生了某种认知失调。
04:56
I mean, we're angry at the one hand and we want to be somewhere else.
117
281000
3000
我们一方面很生气，我们想去别的地方，
04:59
We don't want to be buying oil;
118
284000
2000
而不是站在这儿买汽油；
05:01
we want to be doing something green.
119
286000
2000
另一方面，我们又想做些绿色环保的事情。
05:03
And we get kind of in on our own con.
120
288000
3000
我们陷入了自己设计的矛盾之中。
05:06
I mean -- and this is funny,
121
291000
2000
这挺有意思的。
05:08
it looks funny here.
122
293000
2000
看起来很可笑。
05:10
But in fact, that's why the slogan "beyond petroleum" worked.
123
295000
3000
但是实际上这就是为什么“超越石油”这个标语能起作用。
05:13
But it's an inherent part of our energy policy,
124
298000
3000
作为能源政策固有的一个部分，
05:16
which is we don't talk about
125
301000
2000
我们不去谈论
05:18
reducing the amount of oil that we use.
126
303000
2000
怎样减少我们使用石油的总量。
05:20
We talk about energy independence. We talk about hydrogen cars.
127
305000
3000
我们谈论能源独立。我们谈论氢能汽车。
05:23
We talk about biofuels that haven't been invented yet.
128
308000
2000
我们谈论还没有被发明出来的生物能源。
05:25
And so, cognitive dissonance
129
310000
3000
因此，认知失调
05:28
is part and parcel of the way that we deal with oil,
130
313000
3000
是我们对待石油的一部分，
05:31
and it's really important to dealing with this oil spill.
131
316000
2000
并且它也对处理石油泄漏十分重要。
05:33
Okay, so the politics of oil
132
318000
3000
石油政治
05:36
are very moral in the United States.
133
321000
2000
在美国是很有道义的。
05:38
The oil industry is like a huge, gigantic octopus
134
323000
3000
石油业就像一只巨大的章鱼，
05:41
of engineering and finance
135
326000
2000
它涉及工程、金融
05:43
and everything else,
136
328000
2000
以及其他所有的行业，
05:45
but we actually see it in very moral terms.
137
330000
2000
但是实际上我们认为它很有道德。
05:47
This is an early-on photograph -- you can see, we had these gushers.
138
332000
3000
这是较早前的一张照片。你可以看到，这里有些喷油井。
05:50
Early journalists looked at these spills,
139
335000
2000
早前的一些记者看到这些泄漏，
05:52
and they said, "This is a filthy industry."
140
337000
2000
他们说，“这是一个肮脏的产业。”
05:54
But they also saw in it
141
339000
2000
但是他们也看到
05:56
that people were getting rich for doing nothing.
142
341000
2000
人们什么都不用做就可以赚大笔钱。
05:58
They weren't farmers, they were just getting rich for stuff coming out of the ground.
143
343000
3000
他们不是农民，他们却靠土地上冒出来的东西发财。
06:01
It's the "Beverly Hillbillies," basically.
144
346000
2000
这根本就是“豪门新人类”（注：Beverly Hillbillies 60年代美国喜剧）。
06:03
But in the beginning, this was seen as a very morally problematic thing,
145
348000
3000
刚开始时，这件事的道德问题是有争论的，
06:06
long before it became funny.
146
351000
2000
早在它变得有趣之前。
06:08
And then, of course, there was John D. Rockefeller.
147
353000
3000
然后，当然，这里是约翰 D. 洛克菲勒。
06:11
And the thing about John D. is that
148
356000
2000
关于约翰 D.的是
06:13
he went into this chaotic wild-east
149
358000
2000
他进入了这个混乱的
06:15
of oil industry,
150
360000
2000
石油产业，
06:17
and he rationalized it
151
362000
2000
他使之合理化
06:19
into a vertically integrated company, a multinational.
152
364000
3000
成为了一个纵向整合的公司，一个跨国公司。
06:22
It was terrifying; you think Walmart is a terrifying business model now,
153
367000
3000
这是极可怕的。你现在认为沃尔玛是个可怕的经营模式，
06:25
imagine what this looked like in the 1860s or 1870s.
154
370000
3000
想象一下这些在一八六零年或者一八七零年代是什么样子。
06:28
And it also the kind of root
155
373000
3000
这也是
06:31
of how we see oil as a conspiracy.
156
376000
3000
我们视石油(行业)为一个密谋的根源。
06:34
But what's really amazing is that
157
379000
2000
但是真正惊人的是
06:36
Ida Tarbell, the journalist,
158
381000
3000
记者艾达 塔贝尔，
06:39
went in and did a big exposé of Rockefeller
159
384000
3000
走进并且曝光了洛克菲勒的内幕，
06:42
and actually got the whole antitrust laws
160
387000
2000
接着推进了
06:44
put in place.
161
389000
2000
完整的反垄断法。
06:46
But in many ways,
162
391000
2000
但是在很多方面，
06:48
that image of the conspiracy still sticks with us.
163
393000
2000
密谋的印象始终缠绕着我们。
06:50
And here's one of the things
164
395000
2000
其中有一件事情
06:52
that Ida Tarbell said --
165
397000
2000
艾达 塔贝尔说过。
06:54
she said, "He has a thin nose like a thorn.
166
399000
3000
她说，“他有一个像刺一般细的鼻子。
06:57
There were no lips.
167
402000
2000
没有嘴唇。
06:59
There were puffs under the little colorless eyes
168
404000
2000
他无生气的眼睛下有鼓起的眼袋
07:01
with creases running from them."
169
406000
2000
布满皱纹。“
07:03
(Laughter)
170
408000
2000
（笑声）
07:05
Okay, so that guy is actually still with us.
171
410000
2000
所以那个人仍然和我们在一起。
07:07
(Laughter)
172
412000
2000
(笑声)
07:09
I mean, this is a very pervasive -- this is part of our DNA.
173
414000
3000
我的意思是，这是一个非常普遍的--这是我们基因的一部分。
07:12
And then there's this guy, okay.
174
417000
3000
然后这个人在这里。
07:15
So, you might be wondering why it is that,
175
420000
2000
所以，你可能想知道为什么
07:17
every time we have high oil prices or an oil spill,
176
422000
2000
每次我们有了高价石油或者石油泄漏，
07:19
we call these CEOs down to Washington,
177
424000
3000
我们把这些首席执行官叫到华盛顿，
07:22
and we sort of pepper them with questions in public and we try to shame them.
178
427000
3000
公开地接二连三地问他们，试图羞辱他们。
07:25
And this is something that we've been doing since 1974,
179
430000
3000
这就是从一九七四年以来我们一直在做的，
07:28
when we first asked them, "Why are there these obscene profits?"
180
433000
3000
当我们第一次问他们，“为什么这有肮脏的利润？”
07:31
And we've sort of personalized the whole oil industry
181
436000
2000
我们似乎将整个石油行业当成
07:33
into these CEOs.
182
438000
2000
首席执行官们个人的产业。
07:35
And we take it as, you know --
183
440000
3000
我们尝试
07:38
we look at it on a moral level,
184
443000
2000
从道德角度去看待它，
07:40
rather than looking at it on a legal and financial level.
185
445000
3000
而不是从一个法律和金融的角度去看它。
07:43
And so I'm not saying these guys aren't liable to answer questions --
186
448000
3000
我并不是说这些人没有资格回答问题，
07:46
I'm just saying that, when you focus on
187
451000
2000
我只是说，当你关注
07:48
whether they are or are not a bunch of greedy bastards,
188
453000
3000
他们是否是一群贪婪的混蛋，
07:51
you don't actually get around to the point
189
456000
2000
你实际上并没有找到重点
07:53
of making laws that are either going to either change the way they operate,
190
458000
3000
即，你必须制定法律改变他们运营的方式，
07:56
or you're going to get around
191
461000
2000
或者你开始
07:58
to really reducing the amount of oil
192
463000
2000
认真地减少石油消费量，
08:00
and reducing our dependence on oil.
193
465000
2000
减少我们对于石油的依赖程度。
08:02
So I'm saying this is kind of a distraction.
194
467000
2000
因此我说这是种分心。
08:04
But it makes for good theater,
195
469000
2000
但是这是一个很好的噱头，
08:06
and it's powerfully cathartic as you probably saw last week.
196
471000
3000
非常有力，正如你上个星期所看到的。
08:10
So the thing about water oil spills
197
475000
2000
关于石油泄漏最重要的
08:12
is that they are very politically galvanizing.
198
477000
3000
是它们带有很强的政治争议。
08:15
I mean, these pictures -- this is from the Santa Barbara spill.
199
480000
3000
我的意思是，那些照片--这是来自于圣巴巴拉市的石油泄漏。
08:18
You have these pictures of birds.
200
483000
2000
这是些鸟的照片。
08:20
They really influence people.
201
485000
2000
它们的确影响着人们。
08:22
When the Santa Barbara spill happened in 1969,
202
487000
3000
一九六九年，圣巴巴拉市的石油泄漏，
08:25
it formed the environmental movement in its modern form.
203
490000
2000
促成了现代化的环保运动，
08:27
It started Earth Day.
204
492000
2000
开创了地球日。
08:29
It also put in place the National Environmental Policy Act,
205
494000
3000
它也同时推进了国家环境政策法案，
08:32
the Clean Air Act, the Clean Water Act.
206
497000
3000
洁净空气法案，和洁净水法案。
08:35
Everything that we are really stemmed from this period.
207
500000
3000
所有的一切都起源于这个时期。
08:38
I think it's important to kind of look at these pictures of the birds
208
503000
3000
我认为观察一下这些鸟的照片很重要
08:41
and understand what happens to us.
209
506000
2000
并且了解我们周围发生了什么。
08:43
Here we are normally;
210
508000
2000
经常性的，
08:45
we're standing at the gas pump, and we're feeling kind of helpless.
211
510000
2000
我们站在加油站，感觉很无助。
08:47
We look at these pictures
212
512000
2000
我们看着这些照片，
08:49
and we understand, for the first time, our role in this supply chain.
213
514000
3000
然后我们第一次明白了，我们在供应链上的角色。
08:52
We connect the dots in the supply chain.
214
517000
2000
我们将供应链上的这些点链接起来。
08:54
And we have this kind of --
215
519000
2000
然后我们似乎--
08:56
as voters, we have kind of a "eureka!" moment.
216
521000
3000
作为投票者，我们有了一个“我发现了”的时刻。
08:59
This is why these moments of these oil spills
217
524000
2000
这就是为什么这些石油泄漏的瞬间
09:01
are so important.
218
526000
2000
是如此的重要。
09:03
But it's also really important that we don't get distracted
219
528000
3000
但是我们不
09:06
by the theater or the morals of it.
220
531000
2000
被这噱头或者是它的道义所转移注意力也是很重要的。
09:08
We actually need to go in
221
533000
2000
我们的确需要深入问题的根源，
09:10
and work on the roots of the problem.
222
535000
2000
并且解决问题。
09:12
One of the things that happened with the two previous oil spills
223
537000
3000
前两次石油泄漏
09:15
was that we really worked on some of the symptoms.
224
540000
3000
我们致力于解决某些症状。
09:18
We were very reactive, as opposed to being proactive
225
543000
2000
我们并非主动，而是十分被动地
09:20
about what happened.
226
545000
2000
接受所发生的事情。
09:22
And so what we did was, actually,
227
547000
2000
因此我们仅仅是，
09:24
we made moratoriums on the east and west coasts on drilling.
228
549000
3000
暂缓了在东海岸和西海岸的钻油。
09:27
We stopped drilling in ANWR,
229
552000
3000
我们停止了在北极野生生物国家保护区的钻油（注：ANWR:Arctic National Wildlife Refuge）
09:30
but we didn't actually reduce the amount of oil that we consumed.
230
555000
3000
但是我们实际上并没有减少石油的消费量。
09:33
In fact, it's continued to increase.
231
558000
2000
事实上，消费在持续增加。
09:35
The only thing that really reduces the amount of oil that we consume
232
560000
3000
唯一能减少我们消费石油的办法就是
09:38
is much higher prices.
233
563000
2000
较高的价格。
09:40
As you can see, our own production has fallen off
234
565000
2000
正如你所见，我们的生产量已经减少了
09:42
as our reservoirs have gotten old and expensive to drill out.
235
567000
2000
由于我们油库已经变得陈旧并且钻油也十分昂贵。
09:44
We only have two percent of the world's oil reserves;
236
569000
3000
我们仅有世界石油储藏量的百分之二。
09:47
65 percent of them are in the Persian Gulf.
237
572000
3000
百分之六十五的石油储藏在波斯湾。
09:50
One of the things that's happened because of this
238
575000
2000
这也导致了另一件事的发生。
09:52
is that, since 1969,
239
577000
3000
自一九六九年起，
09:55
the country of Nigeria, or the part of Nigeria that pumps oil,
240
580000
3000
尼日利亚，或者说尼日利亚的产油区，
09:58
which is the delta -- which is two times the size of Maryland --
241
583000
3000
也就是三角洲--面积约为马里兰州两倍大小--
10:01
has had thousands of oil spills a year.
242
586000
2000
每年发生数千起石油泄漏事件。
10:03
I mean, we've essentially been exporting oil spills
243
588000
2000
这就好像出口石油泄漏。
10:05
when we import oil from places
244
590000
2000
当我们从那些
10:07
without tight environmental regulations.
245
592000
2000
缺乏严谨环境管理的地区进口石油，
10:09
That has been the equivalent of an Exxon Valdez spill
246
594000
3000
这与埃克森-瓦尔迪兹号油轮泄漏事件相同，
10:12
every year since 1969.
247
597000
3000
一九六九年起的每一年都是如此。
10:15
And we can wrap our heads around the spills,
248
600000
2000
我们完全了解石油泄漏，
10:17
because that's what we see here,
249
602000
2000
因为我们目睹了这里所发生的一切，
10:19
but in fact, these guys actually live in a war zone.
250
604000
2000
这些人所居住的是一个战区。
10:21
There's a thousand battle-related deaths a year
251
606000
3000
这里每年有数千人死于交战，
10:24
in this area twice the size of Maryland,
252
609000
2000
就在这个有着马里兰州两倍大面积的地方，
10:26
and it's all related to the oil.
253
611000
2000
这都与石油有关。
10:28
And these guys, I mean, if they were in the U.S.,
254
613000
2000
这些人如果生活在美国，
10:30
they might be actually here in this room.
255
615000
2000
他们可能就在这个房间里。
10:32
They have degrees in political science, degrees in business --
256
617000
2000
他们有可能有政治学或者商学学位。
10:34
they're entrepreneurs. They don't actually want to be doing what they're doing.
257
619000
3000
他们是企业家。他们事实上并不想做他们所从事的。
10:38
And it's sort of one of the other groups of people
258
623000
3000
这其实是另外一群人
10:41
who pay a price for us.
259
626000
2000
他们为我们付出代价。
10:43
The other thing that we've done,
260
628000
2000
我们所做的另外一件事，
10:45
as we've continued to increase demand,
261
630000
2000
由于我们持续增长需求，
10:47
is that we kind of play a shell game with the costs.
262
632000
3000
实则用成本来玩一个骗局。
10:50
One of the places we put in a big oil project
263
635000
3000
其中一个正在进行的一个巨大的石油项目的地方
10:53
in Chad, with Exxon.
264
638000
2000
是在乍得，由埃克森石油公司负责。
10:55
So the U.S. taxpayer paid for it;
265
640000
2000
美国纳税人为此买单，
10:57
the World Bank, Exxon paid for it.
266
642000
2000
世界银行，埃克森石油公司也为此付账。
10:59
We put it in. There was a tremendous banditry problem.
267
644000
3000
这是一个巨大的盗匪问题。
11:02
I was there in 2003.
268
647000
2000
二零零三年的时候我在那里。
11:04
We were driving along this dark, dark road,
269
649000
2000
我们沿着这个很黑很黑的路行驶，
11:06
and the guy in the green stepped out,
270
651000
2000
有个穿着绿色衣服的人走了出去，
11:08
and I was just like, "Ahhh! This is it."
271
653000
3000
我就说，“啊！这就是。”
11:11
And then the guy in the Exxon uniform stepped out,
272
656000
3000
之后有个穿着埃克森制服的人走了出去，
11:14
and we realized it was okay.
273
659000
2000
于是我们意识到一切正常。
11:16
They have their own private sort of army around them at the oil fields.
274
661000
2000
他们在油田有自己的私人军队驻守。
11:18
But at the same time,
275
663000
2000
但与此同时，
11:20
Chad has become much more unstable,
276
665000
2000
乍得变得更加得不稳定，
11:22
and we are not paying for that price at the pump.
277
667000
3000
我们在加油站并不支付这些代价。
11:25
We pay for it in our taxes on April 15th.
278
670000
3000
我们以四月十五日纳的税来支付这些费用。
11:28
We do the same thing
279
673000
2000
我们做同样的事情
11:30
with the price of policing the Persian Gulf
280
675000
2000
用监管波斯湾的费用
11:32
and keeping the shipping lanes open.
281
677000
2000
来维持海洋航道开放。
11:34
This is 1988 --
282
679000
2000
这是一九八八年。
11:36
we actually bombed two Iranian oil platforms that year.
283
681000
3000
那一年我们炸毁了两座伊朗的石油平台。
11:39
That was the beginning of an escalating U.S. involvement there
284
684000
2000
那时美国刚开始升级对那里的干涉
11:41
that we do not pay for at the pump.
285
686000
2000
我们不在加油站支付（那些干涉的费用）。
11:43
We pay for it on April 15th,
286
688000
2000
我们在四月十五日为此支付，
11:45
and we can't even calculate the cost of this involvement.
287
690000
3000
而我们甚至不能计算出这些干涉的花费。
11:48
The other place that is sort of supporting our dependence on oil
288
693000
3000
另有一个地方，一直支持我们对于石油的依赖，
11:51
and our increased consumption
289
696000
3000
支持我们增加消费，
11:54
is the Gulf of Mexico,
290
699000
2000
就是墨西哥湾，
11:56
which was not part of the moratoriums.
291
701000
2000
而此地并非暂缓钻油的一部分。
11:58
Now what's happened in the Gulf of Mexico -- as you can see,
292
703000
2000
现在在墨西哥湾发生了什么...正如你所见，
12:00
this is the Minerals Management diagram
293
705000
2000
这是关于
12:02
of wells for gas and oil.
294
707000
2000
汽油和石油井的矿产管理图表
12:04
It's become this intense industrialized zone.
295
709000
2000
它变成了如此紧张的工业区。
12:06
It doesn't have the same resonance for us
296
711000
2000
它和我们没有共鸣
12:08
that the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge has,
297
713000
2000
而北极野生生物国家保护区却有，
12:10
but it should, I mean, it's a bird sanctuary.
298
715000
3000
但是它本该是个鸟类保护区。
12:13
Also, every time you buy gasoline in the United States,
299
718000
2000
并且，每一次你在美国买汽油，
12:15
half of it is actually being refined along the coast,
300
720000
3000
其中的一半实际上是在海岸精炼的，
12:18
because the Gulf actually has
301
723000
2000
因为海湾实际上拥有
12:20
about 50 percent of our refining capacity
302
725000
2000
大约百分之五十的精炼生产量
12:22
and a lot of our marine terminals as well.
303
727000
2000
和很多的海运油库。
12:24
So the people of the Gulf have essentially been subsidizing the rest of us
304
729000
3000
因此在海湾的人们实质上是
12:27
through a less-clean environment.
305
732000
3000
通过（生活在）一个较差的环境来补助我们。
12:30
And finally, American families also pay a price for oil.
306
735000
3000
最后，美国的家庭也为石油付出代价。
12:33
Now on the one hand, the price at the pump is not really very high
307
738000
3000
另一方面，在加油站所支付的价格并不是十分高的
12:36
when you consider the actual cost of the oil,
308
741000
2000
当你考虑到石油的实际成本，
12:38
but on the other hand,
309
743000
2000
但在另一方面，
12:40
the fact that people have no other transit options
310
745000
3000
事实是人们没有其他的运输选择
12:43
means that they pay a large amount of their income
311
748000
3000
也就是说他们支付他们工资的很大一部分
12:46
into just getting back and forth to work,
312
751000
2000
用在往返于工作上，
12:48
generally in a fairly crummy car.
313
753000
2000
大部分在一个劣等的车上。
12:50
If you look at people who make $50,000 a year, they have two kids,
314
755000
3000
如果你看到一些人他们一年挣五万美元，有两个孩子，
12:53
they might have three jobs or more,
315
758000
2000
他们可能有三个或多个工作，
12:55
and then they have to really commute.
316
760000
2000
并且他们需要通勤。
12:57
They're actually spending more on their car and fuel
317
762000
3000
他们实际上在汽车和燃油上的花费
13:00
than they are on taxes or on health care.
318
765000
2000
比他们在税和医疗保健上的花费更多。
13:02
And the same thing happens
319
767000
2000
同样的事情发生在
13:04
at the 50th percentile, around 80,000.
320
769000
3000
百分之五十的比例上，大约有八万。
13:07
Gasoline costs are a tremendous drain
321
772000
2000
汽油的成本在
13:09
on the American economy,
322
774000
2000
美国经济上是一个巨大的耗费，
13:11
but they're also a drain on individual families
323
776000
3000
但是它也是每个个体家庭的巨大耗费，
13:14
and it's kind of terrifying to think about what happens when prices get higher.
324
779000
3000
当价格上涨时就很难想象将会发生什么。
13:17
So, what I'm going to talk to you about now is:
325
782000
3000
于是，我现在将向你们讲述的是：
13:20
what do we have to do this time?
326
785000
2000
这一次我们要如何做呢？
13:22
What are the laws? What do we have to do to keep ourselves focused?
327
787000
3000
有哪些法律呢？我们做什么才能保持专注呢？
13:25
One thing is -- we need to stay away from the theater.
328
790000
2000
其一就是，我们需要远离那些噱头。
13:27
We need to stay away from the moratoriums.
329
792000
2000
我们应该远离暂缓钻油。
13:29
We need to focus really back again
330
794000
2000
我们应该回过头来关注
13:31
on the molecules.
331
796000
2000
那些分子。
13:33
The moratoriums are fine, but we do need to focus
332
798000
3000
暂缓钻油是可以的，但是我们需要关注
13:36
on the molecules on the oil.
333
801000
2000
石油的分子。
13:38
One of the things that we also need to do,
334
803000
2000
还有一件事情我们需要去做的，
13:40
is we need to try to not kind of fool ourselves
335
805000
2000
是我们不应该愚弄我们自己
13:42
into thinking that you can have a green world,
336
807000
3000
认为我们不用减少石油用量，
13:45
before you reduce the amount of oil that we use.
337
810000
2000
就可以拥有一个绿色世界。
13:47
We need to focus on reducing the oil.
338
812000
2000
我们需要关注于减少石油。
13:49
What you see in this top drawing is a schematic
339
814000
3000
现在你看到的这个图
13:52
of how petroleum gets used in the U.S. economy.
340
817000
2000
显示了石油在美国整个经济体中的运用。
13:54
It comes in on the side -- the useful stuff is the dark gray,
341
819000
3000
它从这边过来--有用的东西是深灰色的,
13:57
and the un-useful stuff,
342
822000
2000
这些无用的东西,
13:59
which is called the rejected energy -- the waste,
343
824000
3000
被叫做废弃能量，这些废弃物，
14:02
goes up to the top.
344
827000
2000
在上部。
14:04
Now you can see that the waste far outweighs
345
829000
2000
你可以看到这些废弃物大大多于
14:06
the actually useful amount.
346
831000
2000
实际有效用的总量。
14:08
And one of the things that we need to do
347
833000
2000
我们需要做的一件事情
14:10
is, not only fix the fuel efficiency of our vehicles
348
835000
2000
就是，不仅仅稳定我们交通工具的燃油效能
14:12
and make them much more efficient,
349
837000
2000
使它们变得更加有效率，
14:14
but we also need to fix the economy in general.
350
839000
2000
我们还需要稳定我们的经济大局。
14:16
We need to remove the perverse incentives to use more fuel.
351
841000
3000
我们需要尽量避免耗费更多的燃料。
14:19
For example, we have an insurance system
352
844000
2000
例如，我们有一个保险系统
14:21
where the person who drives 20,000 miles a year
353
846000
3000
一个一年内驾驶两万英里的人
14:24
pays the same insurance as somebody who drives 3,000.
354
849000
3000
与一个驾驶了三千英里的人交付同样的保险金。
14:27
We actually encourage people to drive more.
355
852000
2000
这其实是在鼓励人们行驶更长的里程。
14:29
We have policies that reward sprawl -- we have all kinds of policies.
356
854000
3000
我们有奖励杂乱扩张的政策。我们有各种各样的政策。
14:32
We need to have more mobility choices.
357
857000
2000
我们需要更多的灵活性选择。
14:34
We need to make the gas price
358
859000
2000
我们需要使汽油的价格
14:36
better reflect the real cost of oil.
359
861000
2000
更好的反应其真实的成本。
14:38
And we need to shift subsidies from the oil industry,
360
863000
3000
我们要将把对石油工业的补助，
14:41
which is at least 10 billion dollars a year,
361
866000
3000
每年至少一百亿美元，
14:44
into something that allows middle-class people to find better ways to commute.
362
869000
3000
转移到改善那些使中产阶级的人们的处境上。
14:47
Whether that's getting a much more efficient car
363
872000
3000
是否能拥有更高效的汽车
14:50
and also kind of building markets
364
875000
2000
或是创造
14:52
for new cars and new fuels down the road,
365
877000
2000
利用新型汽车和新型燃料的市场
14:54
this is where we need to be.
366
879000
2000
这才是我们需要做的。
14:56
We need to kind of rationalize this whole thing,
367
881000
2000
我们需要把这一切重新整理，
14:58
and you can find more about this policy.
368
883000
2000
你将发现更多关于这一政策的信息。
15:00
It's called STRONG, which is "Secure Transportation
369
885000
2000
这一政策叫做STRONG,” Secure Transportation, Reducing Oil Needs Gradually."
15:02
Reducing Oil Needs Gradually,"
370
887000
2000
“安全运输，并逐步减低石油用量”
15:04
and the idea is instead of being helpless, we need to be more strong.
371
889000
3000
主旨是，与其处在一种无助状态，我们要变得更强。
15:07
They're up at NewAmerica.net.
372
892000
2000
具体的内容在NewAmerica.net（网站）上。
15:09
What's important about these
373
894000
2000
所有这些重要的是
15:11
is that we try to move
374
896000
2000
我们试图将
15:13
from feeling helpless at the pump,
375
898000
2000
在加油站的那种无助感
15:15
to actually being active
376
900000
2000
转变为主动，
15:17
and to really sort of thinking about who we are,
377
902000
3000
认真思考我们是谁，
15:20
having kind of that special moment,
378
905000
2000
在那一特殊的时刻，
15:22
where we connect the dots actually at the pump.
379
907000
3000
在加油站的我们是整个链接上的哪一个环节
15:25
Now supposedly, oil taxes
380
910000
3000
假如，石油税
15:28
are the third rail of American politics -- the no-fly zone.
381
913000
3000
在美国的政治上是一个禁忌的话题--如同禁飞区。
15:31
I actually -- I agree that a dollar a gallon on oil
382
916000
2000
我同意一美元买一加仑的汽油
15:33
is probably too much,
383
918000
2000
是有点贵，
15:35
but I think that if we started this year
384
920000
2000
但是我认为如果我们从今年开始
15:37
with three cents a gallon on gasoline,
385
922000
3000
以一加仑汽油三美分
15:40
and upped it to six cents next year, nine cents the following year,
386
925000
3000
然后明年增加到六美分，后年九美分，
15:43
all the way up to 30 cents by 2020,
387
928000
3000
一直这样增加到二零二零年的三十美分，
15:46
that we could actually significantly reduce our gasoline consumption,
388
931000
3000
如此这般就可以显著地减少我们对汽油的消费，
15:49
and at the same time we would give people time to prepare,
389
934000
3000
同时我们应该给予人们准备的时间，
15:52
time to respond,
390
937000
2000
反应的时间，
15:54
and we would be raising money and raising consciousness at the same time.
391
939000
3000
收入提高的同时，人们的觉悟也在提高。
15:57
Let me give you a little sense of how this would work.
392
942000
3000
让我来用一个简单的道理演示这如何工作。
16:00
This is a gas receipt, hypothetically, for a year from now.
393
945000
3000
这是一张汽油的收据，假设，从现在起一年。
16:03
The first thing that you have on the tax is --
394
948000
2000
首先在这个税上的是，
16:05
you have a tax for a stronger America -- 33 cents.
395
950000
3000
一个对“更强壮的美国”的税--三十三美分。
16:08
So you're not helpless at the pump.
396
953000
2000
如此在加油站的你将不再感觉无助。
16:10
And the second thing that you have is a kind of warning sign,
397
955000
3000
然后这里有一个警告的标示，
16:13
very similar to what you would find
398
958000
2000
与你在香烟盒子上
16:15
on a cigarette pack.
399
960000
2000
看到的警告标示非常相似。
16:17
And what it says is, "The National Academy of Sciences
400
962000
3000
它说的是，“国家科学院
16:20
estimates that every gallon of gas you burn in your car
401
965000
3000
预测您的汽车所燃烧的每一加仑的汽油
16:23
creates 29 cents in health care costs."
402
968000
2000
造成医疗保健的二十九美分代价。”
16:25
That's a lot.
403
970000
2000
这是很多的。
16:27
And so this -- you can see that you're paying considerably less
404
972000
2000
如此一来--你可以看到你支付相当少的
16:29
than the health care costs on the tax.
405
974000
3000
医疗保健费用在税收上。
16:32
And also, the hope is that
406
977000
3000
并且，期望是
16:35
you start to be connected to the whole greater system.
407
980000
3000
你开始和这整个庞大的系统连接起来。
16:38
And at the same time, you have a number that you can call
408
983000
2000
同时，有一个号码你可以拨打
16:40
to get more information on commuting,
409
985000
3000
可以获取更多的关于通勤的信息，
16:43
or a low-interest loan on a different kind of car,
410
988000
3000
或者对一个不同汽车的低息贷款，
16:46
or whatever it is you're going to need
411
991000
2000
无论如何你将
16:48
to actually reduce your gasoline dependence.
412
993000
3000
确实地减少你对汽油的依赖。
16:52
With this whole sort of suite of policies,
413
997000
2000
依据这整套的政策，
16:54
we could actually reduce our gasoline consumption --
414
999000
2000
我们可以实实在在地减少汽油的消费量--
16:56
or our oil consumption --
415
1001000
2000
或是石油的消费量--
16:58
by 20 percent by 2020.
416
1003000
3000
百分之二十到二零二零年。
17:01
So, three million barrels a day.
417
1006000
3000
也就是一天三百万桶。
17:04
But in order to do this,
418
1009000
2000
但是为了做这些，
17:06
one of the things we really need to do, is we need to remember
419
1011000
2000
有一件事情我们必须要做的就是我们要记得
17:08
we are people of the hydrocarbon.
420
1013000
2000
我们是依赖碳氢化合物的人。
17:10
We need to keep or minds on the molecules
421
1015000
2000
我们必须集中精力在分子上
17:12
and not get distracted by the theater,
422
1017000
3000
不要被噱头所分心，
17:15
not get distracted by the cognitive dissonance
423
1020000
2000
不要因为认知失调而分神，
17:17
of the green possibilities that are out there.
424
1022000
2000
这里根本不存在绿色可能性。
17:19
We need to kind of get down and do the gritty work
425
1024000
2000
我们需要着手认真的做些棘手的工作
17:21
of reducing our dependence upon this fuel and these molecules.
426
1026000
3000
来减少我们对这些燃料和分子的依赖性。
17:24
Thank you.
427
1029000
2000
谢谢。
17:26
(Applause)
428
1031000
2000
（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Lisa Margonelli - WriterDirector of the New America Foundation Energy Policy Initiative, Lisa Margonelli writes about the global culture and economy of energy.
Why you should listen
Lisa Margonelli's work examines the promise and possibility of a post-oil world. She has studied California's opportunity to benefit from new technologies and policies, and is looking at the unexpected complications of alternative fuels and energy efficiency.
Margonelli has been published in The Atlantic, New York Times online, Washington Post, Wired and other publications. Her book about the oil supply chain, Oil On the Brain: Petroleum's Long Strange Trip to Your Tank, was recognized as one of the 25 Notable Books of 2007 by the American Library Association.
Lisa Margonelli | Speaker | TED.com