TEDSalon NY2012
Amory Lovins: A 40-year plan for energy
艾默里羅文斯：40 年能源計畫
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Readability: 5.3
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在 TED 辦公室所拍攝的這場演講，內容十分詳盡與充實。能源理論學家艾默里羅文斯詳細說明了，我們該採取哪些必要手段，才能在石油耗盡以前，擺脫對石油的依賴。諸如輕量車種及智慧卡車等的改變，已在著手進行，但還有許多改變，需要更多時間才能達成。
Amory Lovins - Physicist, energy guru
In his new book, "Reinventing Fire," Amory Lovins shares ingenious ideas for the next era of energy. Full bio
In his new book, "Reinventing Fire," Amory Lovins shares ingenious ideas for the next era of energy. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
America's public energy conversation
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美國的公共能源議題
00:18
boils down to this question:
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最後總歸為這個問題
00:20
Would you rather die of A) oil wars,
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你比較喜歡哪種死法 A. 石油戰爭
00:23
or B) climate change,
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B. 氣候變遷
00:26
or C) nuclear holocaust,
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C. 核武浩劫
00:28
or D) all of the above?
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或是 D. 以上皆是
00:31
Oh, I missed one: or E) none of the above?
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噢 我漏了一個 E. 以上皆非
00:34
That's the one we're not normally offered.
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但通常不會有這個選項
00:36
What if we could make energy do our work
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要是能運用能源 協助我們工作
00:38
without working our undoing?
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又不會導致毀滅 該有多好
00:40
Could we have fuel without fear?
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我們能不能安心使用燃料
00:42
Could we reinvent fire?
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我們能不能重新造出火
00:45
You see, fire made us human;
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火造就了人類
00:46
fossil fuels made us modern.
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石化燃料使我們現代化
00:48
But now we need a new fire
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但我們現在需要一種新的火
00:50
that makes us safe, secure, healthy and durable.
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一種能讓我們安全 安定 健康 又能永續發展的火
00:53
Let's see how.
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讓我們看看 該怎麼做
00:56
Four-fifths of the world's energy
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世界上五分之四的能源
00:58
still comes from burning each year
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仍然來自於每年燃燒
01:00
four cubic miles of the rotted remains
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四立方英哩原始沼澤的
01:04
of primeval swamp goo.
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腐化物質
01:06
Those fossil fuels
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這些石化燃料
01:08
have built our civilization.
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幫助我們建立文明
01:12
They've created our wealth.
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幫助我們創造財富
01:14
They've enriched the lives of billions.
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豐富了數十億人的生活
01:15
But they also have rising costs
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但就安全 經濟 健康和環境而言
01:18
to our security, economy, health and environment
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石化燃料的成本 卻不斷增加
01:22
that are starting to erode, if not outweigh their benefits.
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也許利仍大於弊 但壞處的確日漸增加
01:25
So we need a new fire.
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所以我們需要一種新的火
01:28
And switching from the old fire to the new fire
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從舊的火 轉變成新的火
01:31
means changing two big stories about oil and electricity,
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意味著石油及電力的使用模式 將會改變
01:35
each of which puts two-fifths of the fossil carbon in the air.
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雖然兩者都會排放五分之二的化石碳
01:39
But they're really quite distinct.
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卻大不相同
01:41
Less than one percent of our electricity is made from oil --
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石油所產生的電力 占不到 1%
01:45
although almost half is made from coal.
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而燃煤產生了 將近 50% 的電力
01:48
Their uses are quite concentrated.
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兩者的用途都相當集中
01:51
Three-fourths of our oil fuel is transportation.
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四分之三的石油 集中在交通運輸
01:53
Three-fourths of our electricity powers buildings.
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而四分之三的電力 用於建築物用電
01:56
And the rest of both runs factories.
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而兩者所剩下的四分之一 則供給工廠營運
01:58
So very efficient vehicles, buildings and factories
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高效率的交通工具 建築物與工廠
02:02
save oil and coal,
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能省下許多石油與燃煤
02:04
and also natural gas that can displace both of them.
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還有能取代石油與煤炭的天然氣
02:07
But today's energy system is not just inefficient,
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但目前的能源系統不只是沒效率
02:11
it is also disconnected,
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還相當零散
02:13
aging, dirty and insecure.
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系統老舊 汙穢不堪 又不安全
02:16
So it needs refurbishment.
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能源系統勢必要翻新
02:18
By 2050 though, it could become efficient,
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到 2050 年 系統就能較有效率
02:22
connected and distributed
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彼此互通 妥善運用
02:25
with elegantly frugal
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也能節約能源
02:26
autos, factories and buildings
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交通工具 工廠與建築物
02:29
all relying on a modern, secure
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都仰賴兼具現代化 安全
02:31
and resilient electricity system.
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與使用彈性的電力系統
02:34
We can eliminate our addiction to oil and coal by 2050
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到 2050 年 我們就能減少對石油與煤炭的依賴
02:39
and use one-third less natural gas
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並將天然氣的使用量降低三分之一
02:43
while switching to efficient use
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此時 我們能更有效運用資源
02:46
and renewable supply.
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與再生能源
02:48
This could cost, by 2050,
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到了 2050 年
02:52
five trillion dollars less in net present value,
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淨現值能減少五兆美元
02:55
that is expressed as a lump sum today,
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這裡是指總值
02:58
than business as usual --
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是相對於目前的營運成本而言
02:59
assuming that carbon emissions
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但我們必須先假設 碳排放
03:01
and all other hidden or external costs are worth zero --
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及其他隱性或外部成本為零
03:04
a conservatively low estimate.
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但這只是保守估計
03:07
Yet this cheaper energy system
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如果能源系統變得更便宜
03:09
could support 158 percent bigger U.S. economy
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就能使美國經濟擴大 158%
03:13
all without needing oil or coal,
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完全不使用石油 煤炭
03:16
or for that matter nuclear energy.
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或核能
03:18
Moreover, this transition needs no new inventions
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不僅於此 這個轉變不需要新發明
03:21
and no acts of Congress
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不需要新法令
03:24
and no new federal taxes, mandate subsidies or laws
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不需要新稅目 不需要補助金 也不需要新法條
03:29
and running Washington gridlock.
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美國政府也不會因此陷入困境
03:32
Let me say that again.
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容我重申
03:33
I'm going to tell you how to get the United States
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我想讓你們知道 要怎樣讓美國
03:36
completely off oil and coal, five trillion dollars cheaper
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完全擺脫石油與煤炭 並減少五兆美元的開銷
03:39
with no act of Congress
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完全不需要
03:40
led by business for profit.
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受營利組織操控的國會 制訂新法
03:43
In other words, we're going to use our most effective institutions --
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換句話說 我們要運用最具效率的組織 民營企業
03:46
private enterprise co-evolving with civil society
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與公民社會 共同努力
03:50
and sped by military innovation
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並透過軍事革新 加速發展
03:53
to go around our least effective institutions.
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這樣才能跳過最不具效率的機構
03:55
And whether you care most
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也許你們最關心的
03:58
about profits and jobs and competitive advantage
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是利益 工作 競爭優勢
04:01
or national security, or environmental stewardship
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國家安全 環境管理
04:04
and climate protection and public health,
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氣候保護 或是公共衛生
04:06
reinventing fire makes sense and makes money.
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重新研發取得能源的方式 合理也有賺頭
04:10
General Eisenhower reputedly said
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據說 艾森豪將軍說過
04:13
that enlarging the boundaries of a tough problem
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將一個棘手問題的範圍擴大
04:16
makes it soluble by encompassing more options and more synergies.
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就能涵蓋更多解決方案與協助效應 就能解決問題
04:21
So in reinventing fire,
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所以 為了要重新研發取得能源的方式
04:22
we integrated all four sectors that use energy --
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我們結合了耗能的四個部分
04:26
transportation, buildings, industry and electricity --
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也就是 交通運輸 建築用電 工業與發電
04:29
and we integrated four kinds of innovation,
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也結合了四方面的革新
04:32
not just technology and policy,
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不單只靠新科技和政策
04:34
but also design and business strategy.
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還包括設計與商業策略
04:37
Those combinations yield
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合併後 產生的效益
04:39
very much more than the sum of the parts,
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遠比各項的總和還大
04:42
especially in creating deeply disruptive business opportunities.
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特別是合併後 創造了顛覆性商業的機會
04:47
Oil costs our economy two billion dollars a day,
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我們每天都得花 20 億買石油
04:51
plus another four billion dollars a day
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每天還得多付 40 億美元
04:53
in hidden economic and military costs,
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投注在隱性的經濟與軍事成本
04:56
raising its total cost to over a sixth of GDP.
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總額竟然超過國內生產總值的六分之一
05:00
Our mobility fuel goes three-fifths to automobiles.
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既然五分之三的機動燃料都用在交通工具上
05:02
So let's start by making autos oil free.
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那我們就從這個問題著手吧
05:05
Two-thirds of the energy it takes to move a typical car
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要驅動一般車種 得耗費三分之二的能量
05:08
is caused by its weight.
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而車子的重量 就是如此耗能的原因
05:10
And every unit of energy you save at the wheels,
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無論是減輕車子的重量 或是減少煞車時的消耗
05:14
by taking out weight or drag,
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如果能在開車時節省一單位的能量
05:15
saves seven units in the tank,
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油箱就能減少七單位的耗損
05:17
because you don't have to waste six units
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因為你不需要多耗費六單位的能量
05:19
getting the energy to the wheels.
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把能量傳輸到車輪
05:21
Unfortunately, over the past quarter century,
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但很不幸的是 在過去 25 年
05:25
epidemic obesity has made our two-ton steel cars
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嚴重的肥胖問題 讓原本兩噸重的車子變得更重
05:27
gain weight twice as fast as we have.
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而且增加的速度將近兩倍
05:31
But today, ultralight, ultrastrong materials,
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但現今 我們擁有超輕 超堅固材料
05:35
like carbon fiber composites,
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像是碳纖維複合材料
05:37
can make dramatic weight savings snowball
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能大幅減輕車子的重量
05:40
and can make cars simpler and cheaper to build.
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也能讓生產汽車 變得更簡單 更便宜
05:44
Lighter and more slippery autos
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汽車質量越輕 運轉越順暢
05:46
need less force to move them,
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驅動汽車所需的能量就越低
05:48
so their engines get smaller.
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引擎就能越小
05:51
Indeed, that sort of vehicle fitness
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事實上 車輛的這種適性
05:53
then makes electric propulsion affordable
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能讓電力驅動變得經濟實惠
05:57
because the batteries or fuel cells
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因為電力電池或是燃料電池
06:00
also get smaller and lighter and cheaper.
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也能變得更小 更輕 更便宜
06:03
So sticker prices will ultimately fall to about the same as today,
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最後 電池的價格就能與目前價格相仿
06:07
while the driving cost, even from the start,
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而駕駛成本 就算是從一開始算起
06:11
is very much lower.
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也降低非常多了
06:12
So these innovations together can transform automakers
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結合這些革新 就能讓汽車製造商
06:17
from wringing tiny savings
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不需再想方設法
06:19
out of Victorian engine and seal-stamping technologies
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節省蒸氣引擎與軸封技術的成本 卻成效不彰
06:22
to the steeply falling costs
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而能省下一大筆開銷
06:25
of three linked innovations that strongly reenforce each other --
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只要結合這三項彼此相互補強的革新 就能做到
06:30
namely ultralight materials, making them into structures
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當中包含 超輕材料 製造技術
06:34
and electric propulsion.
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以及電力驅動系統
06:36
The sales can grow and the prices fall even faster
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配合短期優惠方案
06:41
with temporary feebates,
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就能增加銷量 價錢也能壓低得更快
06:43
that is rebates for efficient new autos
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這對高效能的新車種而言 就像是種回扣
06:45
paid for by fees on inefficient ones.
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金額與低效能車種的花費相當
06:48
And just in the first two years
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在剛開始的前兩年
06:51
the biggest of Europe's five feebate programs
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歐洲實行的五項優惠方案中 最大的一項
06:54
has tripled the speed of improving automotive efficiency.
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將汽車的效能提升速度 提高了三倍
06:59
The resulting shift to electric autos
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換成電動車
07:02
is going to be as game-changing
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我們就必須改變遊戲規則
07:03
as shifting from typewriters to the gains in computers.
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就像從打字機轉換到電腦一樣
07:08
Of course, computers and electronics
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當然 電腦與電子產品
07:10
are now America's biggest industry,
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是現今美國規模最大的工業
07:12
while typewriter makers have vanished.
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但打字機製造商卻消失無蹤
07:14
So vehicle fitness
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車輛適性
07:16
opens a new automotive competitive strategy
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產生了一種新的汽車競爭策略
07:20
that can double the oil savings over the next 40 years,
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在未來 40 年 汽車的省油率能提升兩倍
07:23
but then also make electrification affordable,
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電動車也變得平價
07:26
and that displaces the rest of the oil.
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如此 電動車就能取代汽油車
07:30
America could lead this next automotive revolution.
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美國有能力主導這一波汽車革新
07:33
Currently the leader is Germany.
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但目前 主導權在德國手上
07:36
Last year, Volkswagen announced
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去年 福斯汽車宣布
07:38
that by next year they'll be producing
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從今年開始 他們會著手生產
07:41
this carbon fiber plugin hybrid
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碳纖維插件混合車
07:43
getting 230 miles a gallon.
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一加侖的汽油 就能跑 230 英哩
07:46
Also last year, BMW announced
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同樣在去年 BMW 公布了
07:48
this carbon fiber electric car,
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這款碳纖維電動車
07:51
they said that its carbon fiber is paid for
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公司指出 運用了碳纖維技術
07:53
by needing fewer batteries.
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就能減少汽車的電池數目
07:55
And they said, "We do not intend to be a typewriter maker."
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他們也表示 "我們不願成為打字機製造商"
07:57
Audi claimed it's going to beat them both by a year.
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奧迪公司宣稱 他們要在一年內打敗福斯與 BMW
08:01
Seven years ago, an even faster and cheaper
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七年前 許多美國廠商運用了
08:04
American manufacturing technology
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更快速 更便宜的生產科技
08:06
was used to make this little carbon fiber test part,
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以製造出碳纖維測試零件
08:14
which doubles as a carbon cap.
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這玩意兒還能當帽子
08:16
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
08:18
In one minute -- and you can tell from the sound
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只要一分鐘 你們就能聽出
08:21
how immensely stiff and strong it is.
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它有多麼堅硬 多麼牢固
08:24
Don't worry about dropping it, it's tougher than titanium.
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掉到地上也沒關係 它比鈦金屬還硬
08:27
Tom Friedman actually whacked it as hard as he could with a sledgehammer
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事實上 湯姆弗里德曼曾拿鐵鎚死命地敲
08:29
without even scuffing it.
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結果卻連一點刮痕也沒有
08:31
But such manufacturing techniques
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這樣的生產技術
08:33
can scale to automotive speed and cost
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如果能結合流體設計
08:36
with aerospace performance.
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就能影響汽車的速度與成本
08:38
They can save four-fifths of the capital needed to make autos.
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除了能將生產汽車的資本降低五分之四
08:41
They can save lives
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它也能保障生命安全
08:42
because this stuff can absorb
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因為它能吸收的撞擊力
08:44
up to 12 times as much crash energy per pound as steel.
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是每磅鋼鐵所能吸收的 12 倍
08:47
If we made all of our autos this way,
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如果能全面採行這個技術
08:49
it would save oil equivalent to finding
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就能省下 一個半的沙烏地阿拉伯
08:52
one and a half Saudi Arabias, or half an OPEC,
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或半個石油輸出國家組織所蘊含的油
08:55
by drilling in the Detroit formation, a very prospective play.
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若從底特律著手 就有可能成功
08:59
And all those mega-barrels under Detroit
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底特律所蘊含 數百萬桶的石油
09:02
cost an average of 18 bucks a barrel.
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平均每桶都要價 18 美元
09:04
They are all-American, carbon-free
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全為美國所產 也沒有碳排放的問題
09:06
and inexhaustible.
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取之不盡 用之不竭
09:08
The same physics and the same business logic
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同樣的道理 同樣的商業邏輯
09:11
also apply to big vehicles.
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也適用於大型交通工具
09:13
In the five years ending with 2010,
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2005 年到 2010 年
09:15
Walmart saved 60 percent of the fuel per ton-mile
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沃爾瑪的重型卡車隊 每英哩的石油用量
09:20
in its giant fleet of heavy trucks
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減少了 60%
09:21
through better logistics and design.
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這歸功於更好的設計與後勤機制
09:23
But just the technological savings in heavy trucks
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單就重型卡車 憑藉科技所省下來的部分
09:26
can get to two-thirds.
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就有三分之二這麼多
09:28
And combined with triple to quintuple efficiency airplanes,
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就像是螢幕上所呈現的
09:31
now on the drawing board,
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若結合運輸效率為三到五倍的飛機
09:33
can save close to a trillion dollars.
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就能省下將近一兆
09:35
Also today's military revolution in energy efficiency
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而今 能源效率的軍事革新
09:39
is going to speed up all of these civilian advances
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也能加速民生科技的發展
09:42
in much the same way that military R&D
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就像是軍事研發
09:45
has given us the Internet, the Global Positioning System
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同樣賜予我們網際網路 全球定位系統
09:48
and the jet engine and microchip industries.
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還有噴射引擎 與微晶片工業
09:51
As we design and build vehicles better,
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當我們設計 生產更好的交通工具時
09:55
we can also use them smarter
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我們也能更明智地使用它們
09:57
by harnessing four powerful techniques
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運用四種強而有力的科技
09:59
for eliminating needless driving.
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以減少駕駛時 無謂的耗損
10:01
Instead of just seeing the travel grow,
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知道出遊里程數成長還不夠
10:04
we can use innovative pricing,
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我們可以運用創新的定價方式
10:06
charging for road infrastructure by the mile, not by the gallon.
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以里程數計算道路使用費 而不以耗油量計
10:10
We can use some smart IT to enhance transit
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我們可以運用智慧資訊科技 提升運輸能力
10:14
and enable car sharing and ride sharing.
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增進車輛共用及共乘率
10:17
We can allow smart and lucrative growth models
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我們能運用智慧又有經濟效益的成長模組
10:21
that help people already be near where they want to be,
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幫助已經接近目標的人們
10:25
so they don't need to go somewhere else.
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走對方向
10:27
And we can use smart IT
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我們也能運用智慧資訊科技
10:29
to make traffic free-flowing.
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保持交通順暢
10:32
Together, those things can give us the same or better access
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結合智慧資訊科技 我們就能更接近目標
10:34
with 46 to 84 percent less driving,
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減少 46% 至 84 %的駕駛消耗
10:39
saving another 0.4 trillion dollars,
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再省下一筆 4千億美元的開銷
10:42
plus 0.3 trillion dollars from using trucks more productively.
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若能更有效使用卡車 就能再省 3千億
10:47
So 40 years hence, when you add it all up,
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將金額總和起來 40 年後
10:49
a far more mobile U.S. economy
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美國汽車經濟
10:52
can use no oil.
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就能完全擺脫石油
10:54
Saving or displacing barrels for 25 bucks
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就能省下每桶 25 美元的石油
10:58
rather than buying them for over a hundred,
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更不需要花一百多元去買
10:59
adds up to a $4 trillion net saving
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忽略隱性成本的話
11:03
counting all the hidden costs at zero.
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淨節省總值高達四兆美元
11:06
So to get mobility without oil,
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為了要讓汽車工業脫離石油
11:09
to phase out the oil,
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擺脫石油的束縛
11:11
we can get efficient and then switch fuels.
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我們得先增加效率 再設法改變燃料
11:15
Those 125 to 240 mile-per-gallon-equivalent autos
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每加侖汽油能跑 125 至 240 英哩的汽車
11:19
can use any mixture of hydrogen fuel cells,
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可以混合使用氫燃料電池
11:23
electricity and advanced biofuels.
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電力電池 與先進的生質燃料
11:26
The trucks and planes can realistically use
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事實上 卡車與飛機
11:29
hydrogen or advanced biofuels.
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也能使用氫氣或生質燃料
11:32
The trucks could even use natural gas.
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卡車甚至能使用天然氣
11:34
But no vehicles will need oil.
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所有的交通工具 都能擺脫石油
11:36
And the most biofuel we might need,
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所需的生質燃料
11:39
just three million barrels a day,
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每天也不過 300 萬桶
11:41
can be made two-thirds from waste
242
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其中的三分之二的可由廢棄物回收製造
11:43
without displacing any cropland
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完全不需要占用農地
11:45
and without harming soil or climate.
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3033
也不會傷害土壤與氣候
11:48
Our team speeds up these kinds of oil savings
245
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我們的團隊正在加速發展這種省油模式
11:50
by what we call "institutional acupuncture."
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我們稱之為 "體制針灸"
11:53
We figure out where the business logic
247
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我們是因為 商業邏輯過多
11:54
is congested and not flowing properly,
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沒辦法順利流動的概念 才想到的
11:57
we stick little needles in it to get it flowing,
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我們插入細針幫助它導通
11:58
working with partners like Ford and Walmart and the Pentagon.
250
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與福特汽車、沃爾瑪、國防部等單位合作
12:01
And the long transition is already well under way.
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漫長的轉換過程正在進行
12:04
In fact, three years ago mainstream analysts were starting to see peak oil,
252
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事實上 主流分析師在三年前 就注意到石油峰值
12:09
not in supply, but in demand.
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需求面的石油峰值
12:12
And Deutsche Bank even said world oil use could peak around 2016.
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德意志銀行甚至表示 石油用量會在 2016 年達到高峰
12:17
In other words, oil is getting uncompetitive even at low prices
255
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換言之 即使石油還沒貴到買不起
12:21
before it becomes unavailable even at high prices.
256
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也已經失去競爭力了
12:25
But the electrified vehicles
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但電動交通工具
12:28
don't need to burden the electricity grid.
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不會對電網造成負擔
12:31
Rather, when smart autos exchange electricity and information
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當智慧汽車 透過設有智能電網的建築物
12:35
through smart buildings with smart grids,
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得到電力 交換資訊時
12:37
they're adding to the grid valuable flexibility and storage
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汽車其實增加了電網 珍貴的彈性與儲存能力
12:40
that help the grid integrate
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如此便能幫助電網
12:42
varying solar and wind power.
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整合不斷變化的太陽能及風能
12:45
So the electrified autos
264
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所以 電動車
12:47
make the auto and electricity problems
265
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讓汽車與電力的問題
12:49
easier to solve together than separately.
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在合併後更易於處理
12:52
And they also converge the oil story
267
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電動交通工具也整合了
12:53
with our second big story,
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石油與電力的使用模式
12:56
saving electricity and then making it differently.
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不但節電 還能改變使用模式
13:00
And those twin revolutions in electricity
270
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再生能源與電動車
13:03
will bring to that sector
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把問題帶到用電模式
13:06
more numerous and profound and diverse disruptions
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用電量很大 涉及層面很深 又相當繁複
13:09
than any other sector,
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是其他部分無法相比的
13:10
because we've got 21st century technology and speed colliding head-on
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我們擁有最先進的科技與發展速度
13:14
with 20th and 19th century institutions, rules and cultures.
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卻因此與前二世紀的制度 規章 及文化產生衝擊
13:19
Changing how we make electricity gets easier
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3075
取得電力方式的改變 會越來越簡單
13:22
if we need less of it.
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降低需求量就好
13:24
Most of it now is wasted
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大部分的電力都被浪費掉
13:26
and the technologies for saving it
279
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而節約電力的科技進展迅速
13:28
keep improving faster than we're installing them.
280
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甚至超過我們運用它們的速度
13:31
So the unbought efficiency resource
281
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所以 還買不到的效率資源
13:33
keeps getting ever bigger and cheaper.
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就越來越龐大 越來越便宜
13:36
But as efficiency in buildings and industry
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但隨著建築物與工業越來越有效率
13:39
starts to grow faster than the economy,
284
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1972
甚至超過經濟發展的速度
13:41
America's electricity use could actually shrink,
285
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4423
美國的電力消耗反而能降低
13:46
even with the little extra use required
286
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儘管會有小部分的額外消耗
13:49
for those efficient electrified autos.
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1980
必須用在電動車充電上
13:51
And we can do this just by reasonably accelerating existing trends.
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我們只需要適時地推動現有趨勢就可以了
13:56
Over the next 40 years, buildings,
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40 年後
13:59
which use three-quarters of the electricity,
290
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占用了四分之三電力的建築物
14:01
can triple or quadruple their energy productivity,
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就能將能源生產力提升三倍到四倍
14:05
saving 1.4 trillion dollars, net present value,
292
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3925
省下一兆四千億美元的淨現值
14:09
with a 33 percent internal rate of return
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還會有 33% 的內部回收率
14:12
or in English,
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1671
換句話說
14:14
the savings are worth four times what they cost.
295
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事實上 省下來部分相當於成本的四倍
14:17
And industry can accelerate too,
296
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2238
工業也能加速發展
14:19
doubling its energy productivity
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將能源生產力提升兩倍
14:21
with a 21 percent internal rate of return.
298
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內部回收率也能達到 21%
14:24
The key is a disruptive innovation
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2039
關鍵就在於 破壞式創新
14:26
that we call integrative design
300
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2823
我們稱之為 整合設計
14:29
that often makes very big energy savings
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2928
整合設計通常能省下可觀的能源
14:32
cost less than small or no savings.
302
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2477
成本很低 甚至為零
14:34
That is, it can give you expanding returns,
303
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2628
整合設計能產生更多回饋
14:37
not diminishing returns.
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1854
而非減少
14:39
That is how our 2010 retrofit
305
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3746
這就是我們在 2010 年
14:42
is saving over two-fifths of the energy in the Empire State Building --
306
866964
3203
改造帝國大廈 省下超過五分之二能源的方法
14:46
remanufacturing those six and a half thousand windows on site
307
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4154
大樓的 6500 扇窗戶 被我們重製成超級窗戶
14:50
into super windows that pass light, but reflect heat.
308
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4312
光能穿透玻璃 但熱能卻不行
14:54
plus better lights and office equipment and such
309
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3185
配合更好的照明與辦公室設備
14:57
cut the maximum cooling load by a third.
310
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3615
冷卻系統的最大負荷量 減少了三分之一
15:01
And then renovating smaller chillers instead of adding bigger ones
311
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5067
我們修復小型冷卻機 而不添購大型冷卻機
15:06
saved 17 million dollars of
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890500
1523
這省下了 1700 萬的資本成本
15:07
capital cost, which helped pay for the other improvements
313
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3377
而這筆錢就能拿來改善其他地方
15:11
and reduce the payback to just three years.
314
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4044
並將投資回收期 縮短至僅僅三年
15:15
Integrative design can also increase
315
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2223
整合設計也能幫助工業
15:17
energy savings in industry.
316
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2208
節約用電
15:19
Dow's billion-dollar efficiency investment
317
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1992
道瓊指數的十億效率投資
15:21
has already returned nine billion dollars.
318
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3300
目前已經回本九億了
15:25
But industry as a whole has another half-trillion dollars
319
909167
2946
但整個工業還得省下
15:28
of energy still to save.
320
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2195
5000 億的能源
15:30
For example, three-fifths of the world's electricity runs motors.
321
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4559
例如 全球五分之三的電力用在馬達上
15:34
Half of that runs pumps and fans.
322
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2069
其中 一半用於幫浦與風扇
15:36
And those can all be made more efficient,
323
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2874
但它們都能變得更有效率
15:39
and the motors that turn them
324
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1715
而轉動它們的馬達
15:41
can have their system efficiency roughly doubled
325
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3650
大約能將系統效率提高兩倍
15:45
by integrating 35 improvements, paying back in about a year.
326
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3915
只要能整合 35 項改善項目 一年就能回本
15:48
But first we ought to be capturing bigger, cheaper savings
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3228
但首先 我們必須省下更大宗 更便宜的項目
15:52
that are normally ignored and are not in the textbooks.
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這項常常會被忽略 教科書也沒提
15:54
For example, pumps, the biggest use of motors,
329
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3154
例如 幫浦是馬達使用的最大宗
15:58
move liquid through pipes.
330
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1817
它能移動水體通過管線
15:59
But a standard industrial pumping loop
331
943938
1800
但標準的工業抽水循環
16:01
was redesigned to use at least 86 percent less energy,
332
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4377
經過改良 能節省至少 86% 的能源
16:06
not by getting better pumps,
333
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1939
不需要添購新幫浦
16:07
but just by replacing long, thin, crooked pipes
334
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3382
只要把細長 彎曲的管線
16:11
with fat, short, straight pipes.
335
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2616
換成粗短的直線管線就可以了
16:13
This is not about new technology,
336
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3215
這與新科技無關
16:17
it's just rearranging our metal furniture.
337
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1977
只是重新安排金屬設備
16:19
Of course, it also shrinks the pumping equipment
338
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2354
當然 幫浦會變小
16:21
and its capital costs.
339
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1715
資本成本亦然
16:23
So what do such savings mean
340
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2620
這樣的節約
16:25
for the electricity that is three-fifths used in motors?
341
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3682
對供給馬達五分之三能源的電力而言 代表什麼
16:29
Well, from the coal burned at the power plant
342
973615
3100
從發電廠 燃燒煤炭開始
16:32
through all these compounding losses,
343
976715
3121
到化合物耗損為止
16:35
only a tenth of the fuel energy
344
979836
2823
僅有十分之一的能源
16:38
actually ends up coming out the pipe as flow.
345
982659
3000
最後能透過管線傳輸到外界
16:41
But now let's turn those compounding losses around backwards,
346
985659
3674
我們現在把化合物耗損的狀況倒轉
16:45
and every unit of flow or friction that we save in the pipe
347
989333
5631
在管線之中 省下來的每單位能量
16:50
saves 10 units of fuel cost, pollution
348
994964
4144
就能省下十單位的燃料成本與汙染
16:55
and what Hunter Lovins calls "global weirding"
349
999108
2607
以及杭特所謂的 "全球氣候異常"
16:57
back at the power plant.
350
1001731
1402
能量最後回歸發電廠
16:59
And of course, as you go back upstream,
351
1003133
1692
當然 如果追回上游工業
17:00
the components get smaller and therefore cheaper.
352
1004825
3300
組成的部件會比較小 也會比較便宜
17:04
Our team has lately found such snowballing energy savings
353
1008125
4580
我們的團隊最近發現一種成效能倍增的節能方式
17:08
in more than 30 billion dollars worth of industrial redesigns --
354
1012705
3233
能套用在價值超過 300 億的工業重設中
17:11
everything from data centers and chip fabs
355
1015938
2729
資料中心 晶片工廠
17:14
to mines and refineries.
356
1018667
2192
礦場 煉油廠都適用
17:16
Typically our retrofit designs
357
1020859
1441
我們的改造設計
17:18
save about 30 to 60 percent of the energy
358
1022300
2954
一般能省下 30% 至 60% 的能源
17:21
and pay back in a few years,
359
1025254
1946
幾年內就能回本
17:23
while the new facility designs save 40 to 90-odd percent
360
1027200
4154
設計新設備 能節省四成至九成多的能源
17:27
with generally lower capital cost.
361
1031369
2431
通常也能降低資本成本
17:29
Now needing less electricity
362
1033800
3064
對電力的需求降低
17:32
would ease and speed
363
1036864
2315
就能緩和及加速
17:35
the shift to new sources of electricity, chiefly renewables.
364
1039179
3162
新能源的轉換 簡言之 就是再生能源
17:38
China leads their explosive growth and their plummeting cost.
365
1042341
4484
中國大陸在這方面成長卓越 成本也急遽降低
17:42
In fact, these solar power module costs
366
1046825
3421
事實上 這些太陽能發電板的成本
17:46
have just fallen off the bottom of the chart.
367
1050246
2379
已經低到超乎想像了
17:48
And Germany now has more solar workers
368
1052625
3070
德國目前從事太陽能相關工作的人
17:51
than America has steel workers.
369
1055695
2638
比美國的鋼鐵業人員還多
17:54
Already in about 20 states
370
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1846
大致上 在 20 州內
17:56
private installers will come
371
1060179
2354
已有許多私人廠商
17:58
put those cheap solar cells on your roof with no money down
372
1062533
3485
會將便宜的太陽能板安裝在你家屋頂 且卸除不須付費
18:01
and beat your utility bill.
373
1066018
1869
你的水電費會低得驚人
18:03
Such unregulated products
374
1067887
2192
這種民營的產品
18:05
could ultimately add up to a virtual utility
375
1070079
2854
最終能聚集成一種虛擬公共事業
18:08
that bypasses your electric company
376
1072933
2954
能跳過電力公司
18:11
just as your cellphone bypassed your wireline phone company.
377
1075887
3831
就像手機 能繞過家裡的有線電話公司
18:15
And this sort of thing gives utility executives the heebee-jeebees
378
1079718
3418
它會讓公共事業的行政人員焦躁無比
18:19
and it gives venture capitalists sweet dreams.
379
1083136
2223
也讓愛冒險的資本家懷抱美夢
18:21
Renewables are no longer a fringe activity.
380
1085359
3093
再生能源不再是沒人要的資源
18:24
For each of the past four years
381
1088452
2477
過去四年間的每一年
18:26
half of the world's new generating capacity
382
1090929
2838
全世界的新發電量
18:29
has been renewable,
383
1093767
1597
泰半為再生能源
18:31
mainly lately in developing countries.
384
1095364
1692
而近年大多都分布於發展中國家
18:32
In 2010, renewables other than big hydro,
385
1097056
4292
2010 年 排除水力 風力 及太陽能
18:37
particularly wind and solar cells,
386
1101348
2331
其餘的再生能源
18:39
got 151 billion dollars of private investment,
387
1103679
4992
接受了高達 1510 億的私人投資
18:44
and they actually surpassed the total installed capacity
388
1108671
2585
事實上 這已經超過了
18:47
of nuclear power in the world
389
1111256
1685
全球核電廠裝設量的總額
18:48
by adding 60 billion watts in that one year.
390
1112941
3459
再生能源一年就能增加 600 億瓦特的電力
18:52
That happens to be the same amount of solar cell capacity
391
1116400
3700
太陽能電板裝設量也是如此
18:56
that the world can now make every year --
392
1120100
2815
全世界每年能增加的比例
18:58
a number that goes up 60 or 70 percent a year.
393
1122915
3347
高達 60% 至 70%
19:02
In contrast, the net additions of nuclear capacity and coal capacity
394
1126262
5533
反之 核電廠 燃煤電廠
19:07
and the orders behind those keep fading
395
1131795
3569
及其他項目的淨增量 都不斷減少
19:11
because they cost too much and they have too much financial risk.
396
1135364
2536
因為一般電廠成本太高 容易引發財政危機
19:13
In fact in this country,
397
1137900
1400
事實上 在美國
19:15
no new nuclear power plant
398
1139300
2115
已經沒有核電廠
19:17
has been able to raise any private construction capital,
399
1141415
2518
能得到私人的建設資助
19:19
despite seven years of 100-plus percent subsidies.
400
1143933
4415
儘管七年間 政府每年都增加一倍的補助款
19:24
So how else could we replace the coal-fired power plants?
401
1148348
4004
所以 為了取代燃煤電廠 我們還能做什麼呢
19:28
Well efficiency and gas can displace them all
402
1152352
3769
高效率發電方式及天然氣 能完全取代燃煤電廠
19:32
at just below their operating cost
403
1156121
2684
費用還比燃煤電廠的營運成本低
19:34
and, combined with renewables, can displace them more than 23 times
404
1158805
3754
若結合再生能源 不但能取代它們 還能取代 23 次
19:38
at less than their replacement cost.
405
1162559
2074
費用甚至比重置成本更低
19:40
But we only need to replace them once.
406
1164633
2008
但只需要取代一次就夠了
19:42
We're often told though
407
1166641
2688
可是我們卻常聽到
19:45
that only coal and nuclear plants can keep the lights on,
408
1169329
2381
只有燃煤與核能 才能穩定供電
19:47
because they're 24/7,
409
1171710
1285
因為它們可以持續發電 毫不停歇
19:48
whereas wind and solar power are variable,
410
1172995
2823
風力與太陽能相對不穩定
19:51
and hence supposedly unreliable.
411
1175818
3015
因此有人認為 風力與太陽能很不可靠
19:54
Actually no generator is 24/7. They all break.
412
1178833
3385
事實上 沒有發電機能不休息
19:58
And when a big plant goes down,
413
1182218
2115
若發電廠停止運轉
20:00
you lose a thousand megawatts in milliseconds,
414
1184333
2792
每毫秒就會損失千兆瓦的電力
20:03
often for weeks or months, often without warning.
415
1187125
3493
停止運轉通常都會維持幾週至幾個月 甚至沒有事先告知
20:06
That is exactly why we've designed the grid
416
1190618
1997
這就是為什麼我們要設計出電網
20:08
to back up failed plants with working plants.
417
1192615
4270
以與現役的電廠合作 補足歇業電廠的缺額
20:12
And in exactly the same way,
418
1196885
1730
同理
20:14
the grid can handle wind and solar power's
419
1198615
5031
電網能夠克服風力及太陽能
20:19
forecastable variations.
420
1203646
2549
可預測的變化
20:22
Hourly simulations
421
1206195
3307
長達一小時的模擬測試
20:25
show that largely or wholly renewable grids
422
1209502
3767
顯示出大部分或全部的再生能源電網
20:29
can deliver highly reliable power
423
1213269
1777
能夠傳輸非常穩定的電力
20:30
when they're forecasted,
424
1215046
1629
只要風力及太陽能
20:32
integrated and diversified
425
1216675
2054
能夠依據種類及位置預測
20:34
by both type and location.
426
1218729
2053
透過整合及多元化處理 就能辦到
20:36
And that's true both for continental areas like the U.S. or Europe
427
1220782
4223
這在大陸地區 像是美國及歐洲 的確可行
20:40
and for smaller areas embedded within a larger grid.
428
1225005
4485
而幅員較小的地區 只要能安裝大型電網就行
20:45
That is how, for example,
429
1229490
1639
舉例來說 這是 2010 年
20:47
four German states in 2010
430
1231129
2384
德國四省的做法
20:49
were 43 to 52 percent wind powered.
431
1233513
2597
風力發電占了總電量的 43% 到 52%
20:52
Portugal was 45 percent renewable powered,
432
1236125
3642
而葡萄牙的再生能源占了 45%
20:55
Denmark 36.
433
1239767
2325
丹麥則為 36%
20:57
And it's how all of Europe can shift
434
1242092
3285
這就是全歐洲國家
21:01
to renewable electricity.
435
1245377
1285
能夠轉換到再生能源的方法
21:02
In America, our aging, dirty and insecure power system
436
1246662
4725
而我們美國 老舊 骯髒 又不安全的電力系統
21:07
has to be replaced anyway by 2050.
437
1251387
2884
在 2050 年以前 無論如何都必須更新
21:10
And whatever we replace it with
438
1254271
1627
不管我們用什麼取代現有的設備
21:11
is going to cost about the same,
439
1255898
1438
成本幾乎與現在的電廠差不多
21:13
about six trillion dollars at present value --
440
1257336
2710
現值約六兆美元
21:15
whether we buy more of what we've got
441
1260046
2208
不管我們會不會購買更多現有資源
21:18
or new nuclear and so-called clean coal,
442
1262254
2113
蓋新的核電廠 運用所謂的淨煤
21:20
or renewables that are more or less centralized.
443
1264367
3631
或者 或多或少已集中管理的再生能源
21:23
But those four futures at the same cost
444
1267998
3269
剛才提到的四項 成本都很接近
21:27
differ profoundly in their risks,
445
1271267
2069
但各項所承受的風險
21:29
around national security,
446
1273336
2531
對國家安全
21:31
fuel, water, finance, technology,
447
1275867
3538
燃料 水資源 財政 科技
21:35
climate and health.
448
1279405
1531
氣候及健康而言 卻有著天壤之別
21:36
For example, our over-centralized grid
449
1280936
2835
例如 過度集中管理的電網
21:39
is very vulnerable to cascading
450
1283771
3931
只要連結一斷
21:43
and potentially economy-shattering blackouts
451
1287702
2727
或是遇上足以粉碎整個經濟體的大停電 就會完全停擺
21:46
caused by bad space weather or other natural disasters
452
1290429
3438
惡劣天氣 其他自然災害 甚至是恐怖攻擊
21:49
or a terrorist attack.
453
1293867
1946
都有可能造成停電
21:51
But that blackout risk disappears,
454
1295813
2731
但停電危機可以解除
21:54
and all of the other risks are best managed,
455
1298544
1977
其他危機也能夠盡可能妥善控管
21:56
with distributed renewables
456
1300536
2254
只要妥善運用再生能源
21:58
organized into local micro-grids that normally interconnect,
457
1302790
4277
將其編入相互連結的地區性微電網
22:02
but can stand alone at need.
458
1307067
1808
但必要時 也能獨立運作
22:04
That is, they can disconnect fractally
459
1308875
2038
也就是說 內聯機制能夠各自切斷
22:06
and then reconnect seamlessly.
460
1310913
2854
也能重新連結
22:09
That approach is exactly what the Pentagon is adopting
461
1313767
3277
國防部目前就是採用這個方法
22:12
for its own power supply.
462
1317044
1315
控管五角大廈的電力供應
22:14
They think they need that; how about the rest of us that they're defending?
463
1318359
3266
他們認為有此必要 那受保護的我們呢
22:17
We want our stuff to work too.
464
1321625
1685
希望我們的供電系統也能如此
22:19
At about the same cost as business as usual,
465
1323325
3570
如同前面那些選項 此機制的營運成本也幾乎相同
22:22
this would maximize national security,
466
1326895
2005
這麼做 能讓國家安全成效最佳
22:24
customer choice, entrepreneurial opportunity
467
1328900
4002
讓消費者擁有最大的選擇權 提供企業最大的機會
22:28
and innovation.
468
1332902
1623
也能讓革新達到最高峰
22:30
Together, efficient use and diverse dispersed renewable supply
469
1334525
5675
總括來說 有效使用再生能源 增加各項資源的供應方式
22:36
are starting to transform the whole electricity sector.
470
1340200
2923
正在改變整個電力供應系統
22:39
Traditionally utilities build
471
1343123
1631
傳統公共事業
22:40
a lot of giant coal and nuclear plants
472
1344754
2169
會建造許多燃煤電廠 核電廠
22:42
and a bunch of big gas plants
473
1346923
1946
還有一些天然氣發電廠
22:44
and maybe a little bit of efficiency renewables.
474
1348869
1069
也許 還有極少數是高效率的再生能源電廠
22:45
And those utilities were rewarded,
475
1349938
2529
傳統公共事業仍受到獎勵
22:48
as they still are in 34 states,
476
1352467
2454
34 州內都是如此
22:50
for selling you more electricity.
477
1354921
3466
就因為它們能供應更多電力
22:54
However, especially where regulators
478
1358387
2798
然而 尤其在管理者
22:57
are now instead rewarding cutting your bills,
479
1361185
3553
鼓勵減少支出的地方
23:00
the investments are shifting radically
480
1364738
3783
投資在再生能源電廠的金額反而急遽增加
23:04
toward efficiency, demand response, cogeneration,
481
1368521
2531
投資集中在效能 需量反應 汽電共生
23:06
renewables and ways to knit them all together reliably
482
1371052
3369
再生能源 及其串聯方法
23:10
with less transmission
483
1374421
1423
不僅能減少傳輸耗損
23:11
and little or no bulk electricity storage.
484
1375844
2854
也幾乎不需要大宗電力儲存機制
23:14
So our energy future is not fate, but choice,
485
1378698
2827
我們使用能源的未來 並非命中注定 是可以選擇的
23:17
and that choice is very flexible.
486
1381525
2746
而且選項的彈性也很大
23:20
In 1976, for example,
487
1384271
1600
舉例來說 1976 年
23:21
government and industry insisted
488
1385871
1808
政府與製造業堅持
23:23
that the amount of energy needed to make a dollar of GDP
489
1387695
2584
維持國內生產毛額所需的能源量
23:26
could never go down.
490
1390279
1783
不能減少
23:27
And I heretically suggested it could go down several-fold.
491
1392062
3630
但我認為 就算減少好幾倍也沒關係
23:31
Well that's what's actually happened so far.
492
1395692
2249
事實擺在眼前
23:33
It's fallen by half.
493
1397956
1315
能源量已經減少了一半
23:35
But with today's much better technologies,
494
1399271
2491
若能配合日新月異的科技
23:37
more mature delivery channels and integrative design,
495
1401762
2909
更成熟的傳輸途徑 與整合設計
23:40
we can do far more and even cheaper.
496
1404671
3900
我們就能做得更多 成本就壓得越低
23:44
So to solve the energy problem,
497
1408571
2508
如果要解決能源問題
23:46
we just needed to enlarge it.
498
1411079
1921
就把問題的範圍擴大
23:48
And the results may at first seem incredible,
499
1413000
3200
也許成效一開始令人難以置信
23:52
but as Marshall McLuhan said,
500
1416200
1777
但就像馬歇爾說的
23:53
"Only puny secrets need protection.
501
1417977
2752
"只有微不足道的秘密 需要保護"
23:56
Big discoveries are protected by public incredulity."
502
1420729
6084
"凡是驚人的大發現 都會受到公眾的懷疑"
24:02
Now combine the electricity and oil revolutions,
503
1426813
3482
結合受到現代效能觀念驅動
24:06
both driven by modern efficiency,
504
1430295
1684
而發展的電力與石油革新
24:07
and you get the really big story: reinventing fire,
505
1431979
3542
就能抓到重點 重燃火源
24:11
where business enabled and sped by smart policies in mindful markets
506
1435521
5131
明智的政策 能塑造 加速商業發展
24:16
can lead the United States completely off oil and coal by 2050,
507
1440652
4530
能讓美國在 2050 年以前完全擺脫石油與燃煤
24:21
saving 5 trillion dollars,
508
1445182
2320
省下五兆的開銷
24:23
growing the economy 2.6-fold,
509
1447502
2593
使經濟體成長 2.6 倍
24:25
strengthening out national security,
510
1450095
1643
強化國家安全
24:27
oh, and by the way, by getting rid of the oil and coal,
511
1451738
2985
噢 對了 若能擺脫石油與燃煤
24:30
reducing the fossil carbon emissions by 82 to 86 percent.
512
1454723
4510
就能將化石碳排放量 減少 82% 至 86%
24:35
Now if you like any of those outcomes,
513
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上述的結果 你不需要全都喜歡
24:38
you can support reinventing fire
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只要你覺得 其中一項聽起來還不錯
24:40
without needing to like all of them
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就能支持重燃火源的行動
24:42
and without needing to agree about which of them is most important.
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你也不需要認定 哪個選項最重要
24:45
So focusing on outcomes, not motives,
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該注意的是結果 不是動機
24:49
can turn gridlock and conflict
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把困境與衝突
24:51
into a unifying solution to America's energy challenge.
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轉化成美國能源危機的共通解答
24:55
This also turns out to be the best way
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而這也是因應全球危機的
24:58
to cope with global challenges --
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最佳答案
25:01
climate change, nuclear proliferation,
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像是氣候變遷 核擴散
25:04
energy insecurity, energy poverty --
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能源危機 能源短缺
25:06
all of which make us less safe.
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都讓我們更靠向危險邊境
25:10
Now our team at RMI helps smart companies
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我們的 RMI 團隊 正積極幫助明智的公司
25:13
to get unstuck and speed this journey
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脫離困境 加速轉換的過程
25:16
via six sectoral initiatives, with some more hatching.
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主要藉由六方面的行動計畫 還有一些還在籌畫當中
25:19
Of course there's still a lot of old thinking out there too.
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當然 外界還是有許多傳統觀念
25:22
Former oil man Maurice Strong said,
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前石油大亨 莫里斯斯特朗 說過
25:26
"Not all the fossils are in the fuel."
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"不是所有化石都在石油裡"
25:27
But as Edgar Woolard, who used to chair Dupont, reminds us,
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但杜邦公司前總裁 埃德加伍拉德 也說過
25:32
"Companies hampered by old thinking won't be a problem
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"被舊觀念阻礙的公司 不會是問題"
25:36
because," he said," they simply won't be around long-term."
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"因為它們根本就不會長久"
25:42
I've described not just a once-in-a-civilization
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這並不是 一個文明只會有一次的
25:44
business opportunity,
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商業契機
25:46
but one of the most profound transitions
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而是人類史上
25:48
in the history of our species.
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最重大的轉變之一
25:51
We humans are inventing a new fire,
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我們正著手研發新的火
25:54
not dug from below,
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我們不往地底下挖
25:56
but flowing from above;
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而是從地表之上取得
25:59
not scarce, but bountiful;
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資源不少 而是很豐富
26:02
not local, but everywhere;
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沒有地區性 而是四處可見
26:04
not transient, but permanent;
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不是暫時應變 而是長久之計
26:06
not costly, but free.
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不需要砸大錢 而是不費一毛
26:09
And but for a little transitional tail of natural gas
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但不管是已經快用完的天然氣
26:13
and a bit of biofuel grown in ways that sustain and endure,
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還是以各種方式持續永存的生質燃料
26:16
this new fire is flameless.
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新的能源都很不一樣 不需要燃燒
26:20
Efficiently used, it really can do our work
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若能有效運用 的確能幫助人類發展
26:24
without working our undoing.
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而不導致毀滅
26:27
Each of you owns a piece of that $5 trillion prize.
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每個人手上都握有 那五兆成果的一小部分
26:32
And our new book "Reinventing Fire"
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我們的新書《重燃火源》
26:34
describes how you can capture it.
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就說明了 該如何獲得那一小部分的成果
26:36
So with the conversation just begun
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在演講一開始時
26:39
at ReinventingFire.com,
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透過 ReinventingFire.com 這個網站
26:40
let me invite you each
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我想邀請各位
26:43
to engage with us and with each other, with everyone around you,
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與我們 與各位 與身邊的每一個人一起努力
26:46
to help make the world richer, fairer,
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讓這個世界變得更富饒 更公平
26:49
cooler and safer
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更涼爽 更安全
26:52
by together reinventing fire.
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只要我們一起努力 重燃火源
26:55
Thank you.
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謝謝
26:56
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Amory Lovins - Physicist, energy guruIn his new book, "Reinventing Fire," Amory Lovins shares ingenious ideas for the next era of energy.
Why you should listen
Amory Lovins was worried (and writing) about energy long before global warming was making the front -- or even back -- page of newspapers. Since studying at Harvard and Oxford in the 1960s, he's written dozens of books, and initiated ambitious projects -- cofounding the influential, environment-focused Rocky Mountain Institute; prototyping the ultra-efficient Hypercar -- to focus the world's attention on alternative approaches to energy and transportation.
His critical thinking has driven people around the globe -- from world leaders to the average Joe -- to think differently about energy and its role in some of our biggest problems: climate change, oil dependency, national security, economic health, and depletion of natural resources.
Lovins offers solutions as well. His new book and site, Reinventing Fire, offers actionable solutions for four energy-intensive sectors of the economy: transportation, buildings, industry and electricity. Lovins has always focused on solutions that conserve natural resources while also promoting economic growth; Texas Instruments and Wal-Mart are just two of the mega-corporations he has advised on improving energy efficiency.
Amory Lovins | Speaker | TED.com