TED2017
Ted Halstead: A climate solution where all sides can win
泰德．浩思得: 雙贏的氣候變遷解方
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為什麼我們的氣候政策陷入僵局？要怎麼做才能克服擋在眼前，幾乎無法超越的巨大障礙？政策企業家泰德．浩思得提出一個變革方案，奠基於保守派的自由市場及有限政府等原則。一同了解這個碳利方案如何帶出國際骨牌效應，進而解決氣候變遷問題。
Ted Halstead - Policy entrepreneur, climate expert, author
Ted Halstead is breathing new life into US and global climate policy by mobilizing conservative leaders and CEOs around a breakthrough carbon dividends solution. Full bio
Ted Halstead is breathing new life into US and global climate policy by mobilizing conservative leaders and CEOs around a breakthrough carbon dividends solution. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
I have a two-year-old daughter named Naya
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我有個二歲的女兒叫娜亞，
00:15
who is under the mistaken impression
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她誤以為
00:17
that this conference
is named in honor of her father.
is named in honor of her father.
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這場大會取這個名字
是為了向她的父親致敬。
是為了向她的父親致敬。
00:21
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
00:22
Who am I to contradict my baby girl?
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我是何方神聖，
膽敢駁斥我的寶貝女兒？
膽敢駁斥我的寶貝女兒？
00:25
As many of you know, there's something
about becoming a parent
about becoming a parent
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你們很多人都了解，為人父母後，
00:29
that concentrates the mind
on long-term problems like climate change.
on long-term problems like climate change.
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才會全心關注
像氣候變遷這種長期的問題。
像氣候變遷這種長期的問題。
00:34
It was the birth of my daughter
that inspired me
that inspired me
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我就是因為女兒誕生，
才啟發我發起這個氣候組織，
00:37
to launch this climate organization,
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00:39
in order to counteract the excessive
polarization of this issue
polarization of this issue
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來對抗這個在美國
已過度兩極化的問題，
已過度兩極化的問題，
00:43
in the United States,
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00:44
and to find a conservative
pathway forward.
pathway forward.
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並尋找一條能讓保守派向前的道路。
00:50
Yes, folks, a Republican
climate solution is possible,
climate solution is possible,
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沒錯，鄉親父老，共和黨的
氣候變遷解方並非遙不可及，
氣候變遷解方並非遙不可及，
00:54
and you know what?
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而且你知道嗎？
00:56
It may even be better.
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可能還比其它的更好！
00:58
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
01:00
Let me try to prove that to you.
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讓我證明給大家看。
01:03
What we really need
is a killer app to climate policy.
is a killer app to climate policy.
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對氣候政策，
我們真正需要的是殺手應用。
我們真正需要的是殺手應用。
01:07
In the technology world, a killer app
is an application so transformative
is an application so transformative
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在科技界，殺手應用
是指改變力量超強的應用程式，
是指改變力量超強的應用程式，
01:12
that it creates its own market,
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能創造出自己的市場，
01:13
like Uber.
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就像優步。
01:15
In the climate world,
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在氣候變遷世界，
01:17
a killer app is a new
solution so promising
solution so promising
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殺手應用是一種
前景可期的新解方，
前景可期的新解方，
01:22
that it can break through
the seemingly insurmountable
the seemingly insurmountable
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能突破幾乎無法克服的障礙，
01:25
barriers to progress.
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因而進步。
01:27
These include the psychological barrier.
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這包括心理障礙。
01:31
Climate advocates have long
been encouraging their fellow citizens
been encouraging their fellow citizens
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倡導氣候變遷的人
長期以來一直鼓勵同胞
長期以來一直鼓勵同胞
01:34
to make short-term sacrifices now
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在當下做出短暫犧牲，
01:36
for benefits that accrue to other people
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造福其它國家
01:38
in other countries 30 or 40
years in the future.
years in the future.
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未來三、四十年的人民，
01:41
It just doesn't fly because it runs
contrary to basic human nature.
contrary to basic human nature.
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這哪說得過去？
因為這跟人的本性大相逕庭。
因為這跟人的本性大相逕庭。
01:46
Next is the geopolitical barrier.
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另外就是地緣政治障礙。
01:50
Under the current rules of global trade,
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在現行的全球貿易規則下，
01:52
countries have a strong incentive
to free ride off the emissions reductions
to free ride off the emissions reductions
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各國都有很強的動機要占便宜，
讓其它國家去減排放量，
01:56
of other nations,
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01:57
instead of strengthening
their own programs.
their own programs.
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卻不加強自己的計畫。
02:00
This has been the curse
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這是每一個國際氣候協定
都逃不掉的詛咒，
都逃不掉的詛咒，
02:01
of every international
climate negotiations, including Paris.
climate negotiations, including Paris.
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包括巴黎協議。
02:06
Finally, we have the partisan barrier.
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最後，我們還有黨派障礙。
02:09
Even the most committed countries --
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即使是最盡心盡意的國家──
02:11
Germany, the United Kingdom, Canada --
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德國、英國、加拿大──
02:14
are nowhere near reducing emissions
at the required scale and speed.
at the required scale and speed.
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都無法依照規定的
規模和速度減少排放。
規模和速度減少排放。
02:19
Not even close.
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差的遠了。
02:21
And the partisan climate divide
is far more acute
is far more acute
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而黨派之間的氣候鴻溝
02:25
here in the United States.
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在美國這裡更是有過之而無不及。
02:27
We are fundamentally stuck,
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我們完全卡住了，
02:29
and that is why we need
a killer app of climate policy
a killer app of climate policy
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這就是為什麼我們需要
氣候政策的殺手應用
氣候政策的殺手應用
02:33
to break through each of these barriers.
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來突破上述的障礙。
02:36
I'm convinced that the road
to climate progress in the United States
to climate progress in the United States
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我相信美國的氣候進步之路
02:42
runs through the Republican Party
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必要貫穿共和黨
02:45
and the business community.
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及商業界。
02:48
So in launching
the Climate Leadership Council,
the Climate Leadership Council,
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所以我發起氣候領導委員會，
02:51
I started by reaching out to a who's who
of Republican elder statesmen
of Republican elder statesmen
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開始嘗試與共和黨的政治大老
02:54
and business leaders,
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及商業領袖溝通，
02:56
including James Baker and George Schultz,
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包括詹姆斯·貝克及喬治·舒茲，
02:59
the two most respected Republican
elder statesmen in America;
elder statesmen in America;
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這兩位倍受尊重的
美國共和黨政治大老；
美國共和黨政治大老；
03:03
Martin Feldstein and Greg Mankiw,
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馬丁·費爾德斯坦及尼可拉斯·曼昆，
03:05
the two most respected
conservative economists in the country;
conservative economists in the country;
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這兩位在本國最受推崇的
保守派經濟學家；
保守派經濟學家；
03:09
and Henry Paulson and Rob Walton,
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及亨利·鮑爾森和羅伯·沃爾頓，
03:11
two of the most successful
and admired business leaders.
and admired business leaders.
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這兩位最成功最受景仰的商業領袖。
03:14
Together, we co-authored
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我們一起合寫
03:16
"The Conservative Case
For Carbon Dividends."
For Carbon Dividends."
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「保守派的碳利實例」。
03:19
This represents the first time
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這是第一次
03:22
that Republican leaders put forth
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由共和黨領袖提出
具體的市場經濟氣候方案。
03:25
a concrete market-based climate solution.
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03:28
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
03:29
Thank you.
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謝謝！
03:31
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
03:33
We presented our plan at the White House
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我們在川普總統上任兩週後
03:35
two weeks after President Trump moved in.
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在白宮呈獻此計劃。
03:39
Almost every leading
editorial board in the country
editorial board in the country
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幾乎所有美國主要的報章編輯委員會
03:43
has since endorsed our plan,
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都背書支持我們的計劃，
03:45
and Fortune 100 companies
from a wide range of industries
from a wide range of industries
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橫跨各界的財星百大企業
03:50
are now getting behind it.
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也開始支持它。
03:52
So by now you're probably wondering,
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所以此刻你大概在想，
03:54
what exactly is this plan?
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到底這是什麼計劃？
03:57
Well, our carbon dividends solution
is based on four pillars.
is based on four pillars.
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我們的碳利方法有四大支柱。
04:01
The first is a gradually
rising carbon tax.
rising carbon tax.
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第一是逐步增加碳稅。
04:05
Although capitalism is a wonderful system,
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雖然資本主義是很棒的系統，
04:08
like many operating systems,
it's prone to bugs,
it's prone to bugs,
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但它就像很多作業系統一樣，
很容易出現錯誤，
很容易出現錯誤，
04:11
which, in this case, are called
"market failures."
"market failures."
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在我們這個情況
就叫作「市場失靈」。
就叫作「市場失靈」。
04:14
By far the largest is that
market prices fail to take
market prices fail to take
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到目前為止最大的失靈，
就是市場價格不能
就是市場價格不能
04:18
social and environmental
costs into account.
costs into account.
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將社會及環境成本加進來。
04:21
That means every market transaction
is based on incorrect information.
is based on incorrect information.
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這意味著每一筆市場交易
都是基於錯誤的資訊。
都是基於錯誤的資訊。
04:27
This fundamental bug of capitalism,
more than any other single factor,
more than any other single factor,
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資本主義這項根本錯誤，
超過其它任何因子，
超過其它任何因子，
04:31
is to blame for our climate predicament.
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要為我們的氣候困境
付上最大的責任。
付上最大的責任。
04:34
Now in theory, this should be
an easy problem to fix.
an easy problem to fix.
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理論上，這應是很容易解決的問題。
04:38
Economists agree
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經濟學家同意
04:39
that the best solution is to put a price
on the carbon content of fossil fuels,
on the carbon content of fossil fuels,
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最好的解方就是
把石化燃料裡的碳標上價錢，
把石化燃料裡的碳標上價錢，
04:44
otherwise known as a carbon tax.
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也就是所謂的碳稅。
04:46
This would discourage carbon emissions
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這樣就會鼓勵減少
在每年每天，每一筆
經濟交易中的碳排放。
經濟交易中的碳排放。
04:50
in every single economic transaction,
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04:52
every day of the year.
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04:54
However, a carbon tax by itself
has proven to be unpopular
has proven to be unpopular
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然而，碳稅本身已證明不受歡迎，
04:59
and a political dead end.
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在政治面也走到死胡同。
05:01
The answer is to return
all the money raised
all the money raised
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解答就是把所有徵收到的錢
05:05
directly to citizens,
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直接回饋給老百姓，
05:07
in the form of equal monthly dividends.
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以每月固定的紅利形式。
05:11
This would transform
an unpopular carbon tax
an unpopular carbon tax
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這樣會把不受歡迎的碳稅
05:15
into a popular and populist solution,
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變成受歡迎、帶平民主義
色彩的解決方案，
色彩的解決方案，
05:18
and it would also solve
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而且這也能解決
05:20
the underlying psychological barrier
that we discussed,
that we discussed,
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我們剛剛討論過的潛在心理障礙，
05:23
by giving everyone a concrete benefit
in the here and now.
in the here and now.
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因為我們讓每一個人
都能在當下拿到具體的好處。
都能在當下拿到具體的好處。
05:29
And these benefits would be significant.
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這些好處很重要。
05:31
Assuming a carbon tax rate
that starts at 40 dollars per ton,
that starts at 40 dollars per ton,
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假設碳稅的起價是每噸四十美元，
05:35
a family of four would receive
2,000 dollars per year
2,000 dollars per year
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一開始一個四口之家
每年就會收到兩千美元。
每年就會收到兩千美元。
05:38
from the get-go.
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05:40
According to the US Treasury Department,
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根據美國財務部的資料，
05:43
the bottom 70 percent of Americans
would receive more in dividends
would receive more in dividends
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收入在後 70% 的美國人
收到的紅利，
收到的紅利，
05:48
than they would pay
in increased energy prices.
in increased energy prices.
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會比他們付的上漲能源價格還多。
05:52
That means 223 million Americans
would win economically
would win economically
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這意味著二億二千三百萬美國人，
會因為解決氣候變遷問題
而贏得經濟上的好處。
而贏得經濟上的好處。
05:59
from solving climate change.
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06:01
And that --
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而且這──
06:02
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
06:04
is revolutionary,
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這是很大的變革，
06:05
and could fundamentally
alter climate politics.
alter climate politics.
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還會從根本改變氣候政策。
06:10
But there's another
revolutionary element here.
revolutionary element here.
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但是這裡還有另一項變革。
06:13
The amount of the dividend would grow
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紅利金額
會隨著碳稅率增加而成長。
06:17
as the carbon tax rate increases.
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06:19
The more we protect our climate,
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我們愈保護氣候，
06:21
the more our citizens benefit.
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老百姓就得到愈多好處。
06:23
This creates a positive feedback loop,
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這會產生正向回饋，
06:25
which is crucial,
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而這很重要，
06:27
because the only way we will reach
our long-term emission-reduction goals
our long-term emission-reduction goals
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因為我們要達到排放減量
長期目標的唯一方法，
長期目標的唯一方法，
06:31
is if the carbon tax rate
goes up every year.
goes up every year.
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就是要每年增加碳稅率。
06:34
The third pillar of our program
is eliminating regulations
is eliminating regulations
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這個計劃的第三個支柱就是廢除
06:38
that are no longer needed
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不合時宜的法規，
06:40
once a carbon dividends plan is enacted.
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在碳紅利開始實施之後。
06:43
This is a key selling point
to Republicans and business leaders.
to Republicans and business leaders.
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這對共和黨及商業領袖是一大賣點。
06:51
So why should we trade
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我們為什麼要拿
06:53
climate regulations for a price on carbon?
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氣候法規跟碳的價錢交換呢？
06:55
Well, let me show you.
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嗯，給大家看一下。
06:58
Our plan would achieve nearly twice
the emissions reductions
the emissions reductions
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我們的計劃有不但可能
讓排放減量目標，
讓排放減量目標，
07:02
of all Obama-era climate
regulations combined,
regulations combined,
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比歐巴馬時代全部的
氣候法規所達成的高一倍，
氣候法規所達成的高一倍，
07:06
and nearly three times the new baseline
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在川普總統廢止所有氣候法規後，
07:10
after President Trump repeals
all of those regulations.
all of those regulations.
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還會高出幾乎多兩倍的目標。
07:14
That assumes a carbon tax
starting at 40 dollars per ton,
starting at 40 dollars per ton,
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那假設碳稅起價為每噸四十美元，
07:18
which translates into roughly
an extra 36 cents per gallon of gas.
an extra 36 cents per gallon of gas.
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換算出來每加侖汽油
大約會增收 36 美分。
大約會增收 36 美分。
07:24
Our plan by itself
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我們的計劃本身
07:26
would meet the high end
of America's commitment
of America's commitment
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就會達到美國在巴黎氣候協議
07:30
under the Paris Climate Agreement,
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承諾的減量最大值，
07:32
and as you can see,
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就像你們看到的，
07:34
the emissions reductions
would continue over time.
would continue over time.
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排放減量會隨著時間持續下去。
07:37
This illustrates the power
of a conservative climate solution
of a conservative climate solution
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這說明了保守派氣候解方的力量，
07:43
based on free markets
and limited government.
and limited government.
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根據自由市場和有限政府的理念。
07:46
We would end up with less regulation
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我們有可能會有較少的法規，
07:49
and far less pollution at the same time,
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同時卻產生更少的汙染，
07:52
while helping working-class
Americans get ahead.
Americans get ahead.
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也可以幫助美國勞工階級成功。
07:56
Doesn't that sound like something
we could all support?
we could all support?
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這難道不是我們都會支持的嗎？
07:59
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
08:05
The fourth and final pillar of our program
is a new climate domino effect,
is a new climate domino effect,
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本計劃第四項也是最後一個支柱，
就是嶄新的氣候骨牌效應，
就是嶄新的氣候骨牌效應，
08:10
based on border carbon adjustments.
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根據邊境調整措施。
08:13
Now that may sound complicated,
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這聽起來好像很複雜，
08:15
but it, too, is revolutionary,
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但是這其實也很革新，
08:17
because it provides us
a whole new strategy
a whole new strategy
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因為這提供我們全新的策略
08:20
to reach a global price on carbon,
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找出碳的全球定價，
08:22
which is ultimately what we need.
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那正是我們的終極目標。
08:24
Let me show you an example.
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請大家看一個例子。
08:26
Suppose Country A adopts
a carbon dividends plan,
a carbon dividends plan,
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假設甲國採取了碳紅利計畫，
08:29
and Country B does not.
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但是乙國沒有。
08:31
Well, to level the playing field
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那麼，為了使兩邊交易公平，
08:33
and protect the competitiveness
of its industries,
of its industries,
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並保護各自的工業競爭力，
08:37
Country A would tax imports from Country B
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甲國會對乙國
08:41
based on their carbon content.
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按照物品碳含量課進口稅。
08:42
Fair enough.
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很公平。
08:44
But here's where it gets
really interesting,
really interesting,
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但這就是事情變得有意思的地方。
08:46
because the money raised at the border
would increase the dividends
would increase the dividends
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因為在邊境收到的錢
會增加甲國老百姓得到的紅利。
08:50
going to the citizens of Country A.
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08:52
Well, how long do you think it would take
the public in Country B to realize
the public in Country B to realize
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那麼，你猜乙國百姓
要多久以後才會發現
要多久以後才會發現
08:56
that that money should be going to them,
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那筆錢其實應該歸給他們，
08:58
and to push for a carbon
dividends plan in their own land?
dividends plan in their own land?
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然後要求自己的政府
也實施碳紅利計畫？
也實施碳紅利計畫？
09:01
Add a few more countries,
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再多加幾個國家，
09:03
and we get a new climate domino effect.
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我們就得到新的氣候骨牌效應。
09:07
Once one major country or region
adopts carbon dividends
adopts carbon dividends
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一旦某強國或地區採取碳紅利，
09:11
with border carbon adjustments,
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再加上邊境調整措施，
09:13
other countries are compelled
to follow suit.
to follow suit.
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別的國家就必須跟著做。
09:15
One by one the dominoes fall.
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骨牌一個接一個倒下。
09:18
And this domino effect
could start anywhere.
could start anywhere.
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這種骨牌效應可以從任何地方開始。
09:21
My preference, strongly,
is the United States,
is the United States,
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我的首選，當然是美國，
09:24
but it could also start
in the United Kingdom,
in the United Kingdom,
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但是也可以從英國，
09:27
in Germany or another European country,
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從德國或其他歐洲國家，
09:29
or even in China.
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甚至從中國開始。
09:32
Let's take China as an example.
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就以中國為例。
09:34
China is committed to reducing
greenhouse gas emissions,
greenhouse gas emissions,
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中國承諾要減少
溫室效應氣體的排放量，
溫室效應氣體的排放量，
09:38
but what its leaders care even more about
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但是該國的領導者更在乎
09:40
is transitioning their economy
to consumer-led economic development.
to consumer-led economic development.
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要將經濟轉型成
消費者導向的經濟發展。
消費者導向的經濟發展。
09:45
Well, nothing could do more
to hasten that transition
to hasten that transition
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沒有比這個更能加速轉型，
09:48
than giving every Chinese citizen
a monthly dividend.
a monthly dividend.
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就是發給每一位中國百姓
一份月付型紅利。
一份月付型紅利。
09:52
In fact, this is the only policy solution
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事實上，只有這個政策解決方案，
09:55
that would enable China to meet
its environmental and economic goals
its environmental and economic goals
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能讓中國同時達到環境保護
及經濟發展的雙重目標。
及經濟發展的雙重目標。
09:59
at the same time.
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10:00
That's why this is the killer app
of climate policy,
of climate policy,
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那也就是為什麼這就是
氣候政策的殺手應用，
氣候政策的殺手應用，
10:04
because it would enable us to overcome
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因為這能讓我們克服
10:07
each of the barriers we discussed earlier:
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我們剛剛談過的每一道障礙：
10:09
the psychological barrier,
the partisan barrier,
the partisan barrier,
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心理障礙、政黨障礙，
10:12
and, as we've just seen,
the geopolitical barrier.
the geopolitical barrier.
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及我們剛剛看到的地緣政治障礙。
10:16
All we need is a country to lead the way.
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我們所需的只是一個
率先起步的國家。
率先起步的國家。
10:20
And one method of finding
what you're looking for
what you're looking for
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找到我們在尋找的東西的方法
10:22
is to take out an ad.
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就是來一段廣告。
10:24
So let's read this one together.
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我們一起讀一下這個。
10:26
Wanted: country to pioneer
carbon dividends plan.
carbon dividends plan.
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徵求啟示：誠徵願意率先實施
碳紅利計畫的國家。
碳紅利計畫的國家。
10:30
Cost to country: zero.
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費用：零。
10:32
Starting date: as soon as possible.
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開始日期：愈快愈好。
10:35
Advantages: most effective
climate solution,
climate solution,
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優勢：最有效的氣候解決方案，
10:38
popular and populist,
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受歡迎且大眾取向，
10:40
pro-growth and pro-business,
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親成長派，親商業派，
10:42
shrinks government
and helps the working class.
and helps the working class.
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縮小政府，並幫助勞工階級。
10:47
Additional compensation: gratitude
of current and future generations,
of current and future generations,
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附加報酬：受現在及未來世代的感謝，
10:53
including my daughter.
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包括我的女兒。
10:56
Thank you.
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謝謝！
10:57
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
克理斯安德森：泰德，
我只有一個問題要問你。
我只有一個問題要問你。
我其實沒什麼印象
曾見過什麼保守派人士
在 TED 大會受起立致敬。
在 TED 大會受起立致敬。
好酷！
這個邏輯似乎真的很強，
但是某些曾與你談過的政治人物
說這很難通過議院支持。
你對這背後的氣勢感覺如何？
泰德浩思得：我了解很多人對於
美國現在在川普總統之下的
情勢非常悲觀。
情勢非常悲觀。
我稍微好一點；理由是：
白宮的動作，
在氣候方面早期的動作，
在氣候方面早期的動作，
只是這場複雜氣候棋局的頭先幾步。
到目前為止都還停留在
「要廢除」這個策略；
「要廢除」這個策略；
壓力會施加在取而代之的計畫上，
這也就是我們能出手的地方。
有三大理由，我快快解釋一下。
第一，商業界在根本上
與白宮的氣候變遷政策大相逕庭。
事實上，我們發現
不少財星百大公司支持我們的計畫。
我們將在兩個月內宣布
會讓人大吃一驚的支持者名單。
第二，美國政治上
只有氣候變遷這個議題
只有氣候變遷這個議題
能在共和黨基層
及共和黨領導間
造成這麼大的根本差距。
造成這麼大的根本差距。
第三，就用棋局對弈來比擬，
橫在我們面前的重大決定是：
這個政府會不會繼續參與巴黎協議？
這個政府會不會繼續參與巴黎協議？
我們來看一下正反兩面。
如果維持巴黎協定，
就像很多人當下正在政府裡推動的，
就像很多人當下正在政府裡推動的，
那麼就要問一個問題：
你有什麼計畫？
你有什麼計畫？
我們有計畫。
但是如果他們退出巴黎，
國際的壓力會排山倒海而來。
我們的國務卿會要求
其它北約國家達成財務基準，
其它北約國家達成財務基準，
他們就會回說：
「不，給我巴黎承諾。
「不，給我巴黎承諾。
履行你的承諾，
我們就會做我們該做的。」
我們就會做我們該做的。」
所以，國際間、商業界
甚至共和黨基層
甚至共和黨基層
都在要求共和黨提出替代方案。
所以，希望我們這個就是解答。
克：非常感謝你，泰德。
泰：謝謝你，克理斯。
（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Ted Halstead - Policy entrepreneur, climate expert, authorTed Halstead is breathing new life into US and global climate policy by mobilizing conservative leaders and CEOs around a breakthrough carbon dividends solution.
Why you should listen
Ted Halstead is the founder and CEO of the Climate Leadership Council, whose mission is to convene global opinion leaders around the most cost-effective, popular and equitable climate solutions. With offices in Washington and London, the Council will expand to Berlin, Beijing and New Delhi next.
Previously, Halstead founded and led two other successful think tanks. His first, which he launched at 25, introduced new measures of progress and coordinated the Economists’ Statement on Climate Change, signed by 18 Nobel laureate economists. His second, New America, has become one of the most influential think tanks in Washington.
Halstead has published numerous articles in the New York Times, Washington Post, Financial Times, Fortune, The Atlantic, National Review, Bloomberg, Los Angeles Times and Harvard Business Review. He also published two books, including The Radical Center: The Future of American Politics (co-authored with Michael Lind).
From 2008 to 2012, he and his wife sailed around the world on a catamaran, with only their dog as crew. Halstead graduated Phi Beta Kappa from Dartmouth College, and received his Master's degree from Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, where he was a Montgomery Fellow. He was selected as a Young Global Leader by the World Economic Forum.
Ted Halstead | Speaker | TED.com