TED2003
Gregory Stock: To upgrade is human
喬治斯托克：不斷升級的人類
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這是2003年一場預言未來的演講——僅僅幾天之後克隆羊多利誕生——生物技術倫理學家喬治斯托克在演講中展望了一些新的、更有意義的技術，比如基因定制的嬰兒，這樣的嬰兒可能推動人類進程。
Gregory Stock - Author, thinker
Dr. Gregory Stock's levelheaded look at the hotpoints where tech and ethics connect (or short circuit) have made him a popular guest on TV and radio. He directs the Program on Science, Technology, and Society at UCLA. Full bio
Dr. Gregory Stock's levelheaded look at the hotpoints where tech and ethics connect (or short circuit) have made him a popular guest on TV and radio. He directs the Program on Science, Technology, and Society at UCLA. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
The future of life, where the unraveling of our biology --
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生命的未來，以及生物的奧秘一次次揭開──
00:16
and bring up the lights a little bit. I don't have any slides.
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把燈開亮一點，我不用投影片
00:18
I'm just going to talk --
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只是要和大家談談─
00:21
about where that's likely to carry us.
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這些將把我們帶向何方。
00:23
And you know, I saw all the visions
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我聽了最開始兩部分的演講
00:27
of the first couple of sessions.
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聽了裡面的那些觀點。
00:29
It almost made me feel a little bit guilty about having an uplifting talk
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讓我有一點罪惡感，因為我今天的這場演講
00:32
about the future.
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對未來持以樂觀的態度。
00:34
It felt wrong to do that in some way.
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這樣做感覺不太對。
00:36
And yet, I don't really think it is
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但是我確實認為未來充滿希望，
00:38
because when it comes down to it,
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因為煙消雲散的那天
00:40
it's this larger trajectory that is really what is going to remain --
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只有大方向被記得
00:44
what people in the future are going to remember about this period.
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這才是未來會記住這個時代的地方
00:48
I want to talk to you a little bit about
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我想要說的是，
00:51
why the visions of Jeremy Rivkins,
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為什麼Jeremy Rivkins提出的
00:55
who would like to ban these sorts of technologies,
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禁止這些技術的要求
00:58
or of the Bill Joys who would like to relinquish them,
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或是Bill Joys放棄這些技術的想法，
01:02
are actually -- to follow those paths would be such a tragedy for us.
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對我們來說才是一場悲劇。
01:07
I'm focusing on biology,
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我會把重點放在生物學
01:10
the biological sciences.
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和生物科學上面。
01:12
The reason I'm doing that is because those are going to be
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因為這兩個領域
01:15
the areas that are the most significant to us.
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對我們來說將最為關鍵。
01:19
The reason for that is really very simple.
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其中原因非常簡單，
01:21
It's because we're flesh and blood.
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因為我們都是血肉之軀
01:23
We're biological creatures.
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我們都是生物。
01:25
And what we can do with our biology
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我們在生物學上的造化
01:29
is going to shape our future
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將決定我們自己
01:31
and that of our children and that of their children --
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以及子孫後代的未來──
01:34
whether we gain control over aging,
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比如能否控制衰老，
01:36
whether we learn to protect ourselves from Alzheimer's,
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能否防治老人癡呆症
01:40
and heart disease, and cancer.
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心臟病，以及癌症。
01:42
I think that Shakespeare really put it very nicely.
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我覺得莎翁有段話說得不錯。
01:46
And I'm actually going to use his words in the same order that he did.
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照搬一下他老人家的一字一句。
01:49
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
01:51
He said, "And so from hour to hour
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他說，“因此時間一點點流逝，
01:54
we ripe and ripe.
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我們一點點成熟。
01:57
And then from hour to hour we rot and rot.
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時間繼續一點點流逝，我們一點點老去。
01:59
And thereby hangs a tale."
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故事這樣發生了。”
02:01
Life is short, you know.
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人生苦短。
02:03
And we need to think about planning a little bit.
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所以我們要好好規劃。
02:05
We're all going to eventually, even in the developed world,
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即便科學非常發達，最終我們仍將
02:10
going to have to lose everything that we love.
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失去摯愛的一切。
02:13
When you're beginning to rot a little bit,
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當我們開始老去的時候，
02:16
all of the videos crammed into your head,
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所有湧入你腦海的一幕幕，
02:18
all of the extensions that extend your various powers,
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所有外在的能力、權力等等，
02:22
are going to being to seem a little secondary.
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都變得次要起來。
02:26
And you know, I'm getting a little bit gray -- so is Ray Kurzweil,
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你們可以看到，我變得有點悲觀了，Ray Kurzweil也是，
02:30
so is Eric Drexler.
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還有Eric Drexler。
02:32
This is where it's really central to our lives.
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這才是我們生命的核心。
02:35
Now I know there's been a whole lot of hype
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現在我瞭解到，我們對生物學的控制能力
02:37
about our power to control biology.
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並不像傳言所說的那樣強大。
02:40
You just have to look at the Human Genome Project.
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只要看下人類基因工程你就知道了。
02:42
It wasn't two years ago
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只不過兩年前，
02:44
that everybody was talking about --
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人們就在說
02:46
we've found the Holy Grail of biology.
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我們已經掌握了生物學的關鍵，
02:48
We're deciphering the code of codes.
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我們已經破譯了基因密碼，
02:50
We're reading the book of life.
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我們正在閱讀生命之書。
02:53
It's a little bit reminiscent of 1969 when Neil Armstrong walked on the moon,
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這有點像1969年阿姆斯壯登錄月球時的情境，
02:57
and everybody was about to race out toward the stars.
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每個人都以為我們要奔向外星球了。
03:01
And we've all seen "2001: A Space Odyssey."
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我們都看過電影《2001太空漫游》
03:04
You know it's 2003, and there is no HAL.
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可是現在都2003了，電影裡的超智能電腦仍然不見蹤影。
03:08
And there is no odyssey to our own moon, much less the moons of Jupiter.
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我們還不能在月球上漫步，更別說木星的衛星了。
03:12
And we're still picking up pieces of the Challenger.
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我們仍然在尋找挑戰者號的殘骸。
03:15
So it's not surprising that some people would wonder
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所以不奇怪，有的人會懷疑
03:19
whether maybe 30 or 40 years from now,
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是不是等到三四十年以後，
03:22
we'll look back at this instant in time,
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我們回顧當年的時候
03:24
and all of the sort of talk about
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如今這些各種各樣的演講，
03:27
the Human Genome Project,
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有的關於人類基因工程，
03:29
and what all this is going to mean to us --
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有的關於人類基因工程對我們的意義，
03:31
well, it will really mean precious little.
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都會顯得微不足道。
03:35
And I just want to say that that is absolutely not going to be the case.
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我想說的是這絕對不可能。
03:39
Because when we talk about our genetics and our biology,
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因為當我們談及遺傳學與生物學，
03:44
and modifying and altering and adjusting these things,
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以及在其中進行修飾、改變、調整的時候，
03:46
we're talking about changing ourselves.
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我們談的其實是改變自己。
03:49
And this is very critical stuff.
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這是非常重要的一點。
03:51
If you have any doubts about how technology affects our lives,
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如果你還不能確定科技如何影響我們的生活，
03:55
you just have to go to any major city.
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你只要隨便去哪座大城市看一看。
03:57
This is not the stomping ground
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這已完全不同於我們數萬年前的祖先
03:59
of our Pleistocene ancestors.
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生活的那片土地了。
04:01
What's happening is we're taking this technology --
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如今，人類利用科技，
04:04
it's becoming more precise, more potent --
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科技比原先更加精確，也更有威力，
04:06
and we're turning it back upon ourselves.
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我們要把它用在自己身上。
04:09
Before it's all done
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下一步，
04:11
we are going to alter ourselves
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我們要一點一點地改變自己，
04:13
every bit as much as we have changed the world around us.
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就像改變周遭世界一樣。
04:16
It's going to happen a lot sooner
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這很快就會發生，
04:18
than people imagine.
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遠比人們想象的要快。
04:20
On the way there it's going to
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改變人類自己的過程中，
04:23
completely revolutionize medicine and health care; that's obvious.
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醫療保健會徹底改革。這是顯而易見的。
04:26
It's going to change the way we have children.
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生育子女的方式會改變。
04:28
It's going to change the way we manage
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我們控制和改變自己情緒
04:30
and alter our emotions.
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的方式也會改變。
04:32
It's going to probably change the human lifespan.
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還有人類壽命，也許也會改變。
04:34
It will really make us question
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這讓我們不禁要問
04:36
what it is to be a human being.
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人類到底是什麼。
04:40
The larger context of this is that are
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大環境就是
04:42
two unprecedented revolutions that are going on today.
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兩場前所未有的革命正在進行。
04:48
The first of them is the obvious one,
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第一場革命顯而易見，
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the silicon revolution,
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是矽土半導體的電子革命
04:52
which you all are very, very familiar with.
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大家都非常之熟悉。
04:55
It's changing our lives in so many ways,
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它從很多方面改變著我們的生活，
04:57
and it will continue to do that.
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而且還會繼續改變我們。
04:59
What the essence of that is, is that we're taking
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說到底就是，我們利用
05:01
the sand at our feet, the inert silicon at our feet,
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腳邊的砂石和不活躍的矽元素，
05:05
and we're breathing a level of complexity into it
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然後賦予它們一定的復雜性，
05:07
that rivals that of life itself,
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這和生命本身的復雜性相當，
05:09
and may even surpass it.
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甚至更加復雜。
05:12
As an outgrowth of that, as a child of that revolution,
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這場革命的衍生物，如同它的下一代，
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is the revolution in biology.
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就是生物學革命。
05:17
The genomics revolution,
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基因革命、
05:19
proteomics, metabolomics, all of these "omics"
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蛋白質體、代謝體，所有這些生物科學名詞
05:22
that sound so terrific on grants and on business plans.
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在撥款補助和商業計劃中都顯得非常漂亮。
05:25
What we're doing is we are
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我們現在
05:30
seizing control of our evolutionary future.
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想要控制住革命性的未來。
05:33
I mean we're essentially using technology
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我的意思是，實際上我們是用科技
05:35
to just jam evolution into fast-forward.
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向前推動革命。
05:38
It's not at all clear where it's going to take us.
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我們到底會走向何方，仍然是個未知數。
05:41
But in five to ten years we're going to start see
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但是五到十年之內，我們會逐漸看到
05:44
some very profound changes.
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一些深遠的改變。
05:46
The most immediate changes that we'll see
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其中最先改變的
05:48
are things like in medicine.
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是諸如醫療等方面。
05:50
There is going to be a big shift towards preventative medicine
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我們的重心會轉向預防，
05:53
as we start to be able to identify
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因為我們開始認識到
05:55
all of the risk factors that we have as individuals.
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個體發病的潛在原因。
05:58
But who is going to pay for all this?
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但是誰來為這一切買單呢？
06:00
And how are we going to understand all this complex information?
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我們怎樣才能理解這些復雜的信息呢？
06:04
That is going to be the IT challenge
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這將是下一代的IT挑戰，
06:07
of the next generation, is communicating all this information.
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也就是傳播信息。
06:11
There's pharmacogenomics, the combination of pharmacology
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藥物學和遺傳學的結合──
06:13
and genetics:
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藥物遺傳學
06:16
tailoring drugs to our individual constitutions
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根據人的個體特徵製造藥物，
06:18
that Juan talked about a little bit earlier.
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剛剛胡安提到了這點。
06:21
That's going to have amazing impacts.
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藥物遺傳學會產生奇妙的改變。
06:24
And it's going to be used for diet as well,
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還會被用於飲食，
06:27
and nutritional supplements and such.
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營養補充劑等等。
06:29
But it's going to have a big impact because
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但還有一個很大的影響，
06:31
we're going to have niche drugs.
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因為以後不同的人用不同的藥，
06:33
And we aren't going to be able to support
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與現在大規模制藥不可同日而語，
06:36
the kinds of expenses that we have to create blockbuster drugs today.
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成本過高，我們難以支付。
06:39
The approval process is going to fall apart, actually.
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藥品批審過程將會改變
06:44
It's too slow.
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現在太慢了。
06:46
It's too risk-averse.
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太保守了，
06:48
And it is really not suited for the future
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與我們即將進入的未來
06:51
that we're moving into.
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實在不相符。
06:53
Another thing is that we're just going to have to deal with this knowledge.
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另一點就是我們還要處理這麼一個問題。
06:55
It's really wonderful when we hear,
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有的東西聽起來是很棒的，比如
06:57
"Oh, 99.9 percent of the letters in the code are the same.
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“我們的基因有99.9%都是一樣的。
07:02
We're all identical to each other. Isn't it wonderful?"
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所有人都一樣。”聽起來不錯吧？
07:06
And look around you and know
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可看看周圍你就會明白，
07:08
that what we really care about is
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我們真正在意的
07:10
that little bit of difference.
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其實是那微乎其微的不同之處。
07:12
We look the same to a visitor from another planet, maybe,
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對外星人來說，我們看起來可能一模一樣，
07:15
but not to each other
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但在這裡，人與人是不同的，
07:17
because we compete with each other all time.
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因為我們無時無刻不在互相競爭，
07:19
And we're going to have to come to grips with the fact
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我們還會了解到
07:22
that there are differences between us as individuals that we will know about,
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個體之間存在差異，
07:25
and between subpopulations of humans as well.
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亞群之間亦存在差異。
07:29
To deny that that's the case is not a very good start on that.
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否認差異並不是個良好的開端。
07:33
A generation or so away
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大概到我們的下一代，
07:36
there are going to be even more profound things that are going to happen.
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還會發生影響更加深刻的事。
07:39
That's when we're going to begin to use this knowledge to modify ourselves.
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到時我們將會開始依照已有的知識來修飾人類的基因。
07:43
Now I don't mean extra gills or something --
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不是說會多長幾個器官之類的，
07:46
something we care about, like aging.
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而是要用在我們關心的問題上，比如衰老。
07:48
What if we could unravel aging and understand it --
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倘若我們可以揭開衰老的奧秘──
07:52
begin to retard the process or even reverse it?
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延緩衰老甚至倒轉衰老的過程，會發生什麼呢？
07:55
It would change absolutely everything.
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所有的一切都會改變，
07:57
And it's obvious to anyone,
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對任何一個人而言，
07:59
that if we can do this, we absolutely will do this,
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只要能做到，我們一定會這麼做，
08:02
whatever the consequences are.
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結果怎樣不重要。
08:04
The second is modifying our emotions.
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第二是修飾情感。
08:08
I mean Ritalin, Viagra,
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比如利他靈、威而剛，
08:12
things of that sort, Prozac.
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這一類的藥物，還有像百憂解。
08:14
You know, this is just clumsy little baby steps.
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這只是我們一開始笨拙的步伐。
08:16
What if you could take a little
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假如你
08:19
concoction of pharmaceuticals
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服用一點藥物，
08:22
that would make you feel really contented,
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就可以感到滿足，
08:25
just happy to be you.
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感到幸福，
08:27
Are you going to be able to resist that if it doesn't have any overt side effects?
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而且這種藥沒有明顯的副作用，你會反對嗎？
08:30
Probably not.
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大概不會吧。
08:32
And if you don't, who are you going to be?
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如果答案是否定的，你將會發生怎樣的改變呢？
08:34
Why do you do what you do?
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你為什麼這樣做呢？
08:36
We're sort of circumventing evolutionary programs that guide our behavior.
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我們似乎在逃避一些事情，逃避具有改革和指導意義的項目。
08:39
It's going to be very challenging to deal with.
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相當棘手的問題。
08:41
The third area is reproduction.
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第三個是繁殖領域。
08:45
The idea that we're going to chose our children's genes,
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隨著我們逐漸認清基因怎樣反映出人的特徵，
08:48
as we begin to understand what genes say about who we are.
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我們將能選擇孩子的基因。
08:52
That's the focus of my book "Redesigning Humans,"
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這是我在《重新設計人類》這本書裡關注的重點，
08:54
where I talk about the kinds of choices we'll make,
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書裡還談到我們會做怎樣的選擇，
08:56
and the challenges it's going to present to society.
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以及它將給社會帶來什麼樣的挑戰。
08:59
There are three obvious ways of doing this.
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有三個方法。
09:01
The first is cloning.
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第一個是克隆。
09:03
It didn't happen.
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其實克隆還沒成功，
09:05
It's a total media circus.
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純粹是媒體炒作。
09:07
It will happen in five to 10 years.
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五到十年內可以成功，
09:09
And when it does it's not going to be that big a deal.
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但即便成功了也沒什麼了不起。
09:12
The birth of a delayed identical twin
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兩個不同時間出生的完全相同的雙胞胎，
09:14
is not going to shake western civilization.
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不會對西方文明產生太大影響。
09:19
But there are more important things that are already occurring:
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反而一些更重要的事情已經發生了：
09:22
embryo screening.
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胚胎篩選。
09:24
You take a six to eight cell embryo,
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取一個含六到八個細胞的胚胎，
09:27
you tease out one of the cells, you run a genetic test on that cell,
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提取一個細胞進行遺傳測試，
09:30
and depending on the results of that test
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根據測試結果
09:32
you either implant that embryo or you discard it.
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決定取捨。
09:35
It's already done to avoid rare diseases today.
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目前已用於預防罕見疾病。
09:38
And pretty soon it's going to be possible
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很快，這種方法可能可以
09:41
to avoid virtually all genetic diseases in that way.
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預防所有的遺傳疾病。
09:45
As that becomes possible
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如果實現這項技術，
09:48
this is going to move from something that is used by those who
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受益人群不只是
09:51
have infertility problems and are already doing in vitro fertilization,
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那些有生育疾病且已進行體外受精的人群，
09:54
to the wealthy who want to protect their children,
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想保護孩子的富人
09:57
to just about everybody else.
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以及所有人都能受惠於這種技術。
09:59
And in that process that's going to morph
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它還會帶來一項改變，
10:01
from being just for diseases,
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不只預防疾病，
10:03
to being for lesser vulnerabilities,
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還能增強人的抵抗疾病的能力，
10:05
like risk of manic depression or something,
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比如降低得狂躁抑鬱症的風險，
10:08
to picking personalities,
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到挑選性格、
10:11
temperaments, traits, these sorts of things.
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脾氣、特質這類事情，
10:14
Of course there is going to be genetic engineering.
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當然，其中還要涉及基因工程。
10:17
Directly going in -- it's a little bit further away, but not that far away --
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基因工程直接參與其中——這有點遙遠，但也不是那麼遙遠——
10:20
going in and altering the genes in the first cell in an embryo.
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利用基因工程改變胚胎中第一個細胞內的基因。
10:25
The way I suspect it will happen
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我覺得這項技術想要成功，
10:28
is using artificial chromosomes
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要用到人造染色體
10:30
and extra chromosomes, so we go from 46
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以及額外的染色體，所以我們的染色體數量將從46
10:33
to 47 or 48.
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上升到47或48。
10:35
And one that is not heritable
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還會有一條不可遺傳的染色體。
10:37
because who would want to pass on to their children
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畢竟，誰想把25年前
10:40
the archaic enhancement modules
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從父母那裡遺傳來的已經用不上的基因改善模塊
10:43
that they got 25 years earlier from their parents?
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傳給自己的小孩？
10:46
It's a joke; of course they wouldn't want to do that.
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開個玩笑，人們肯定不想這樣。
10:49
They'll want the new release.
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他們想要的是新的模塊，
10:51
Those kinds of loose analogies with
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這有點類似於
10:54
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
10:55
computers, and with programming,
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電腦與編寫程式
10:57
are actually much deeper than that.
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而比那還深刻些
11:00
They are really going to come to operate in this realm.
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在這個領域，人們會有所行動。
11:03
Now not everything that can be done should be done.
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如今，並不是所有能做的事就都應該做
11:06
And it won't be done.
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有些是不會被實施的
11:08
But when something is feasible in thousands of
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但是，當某項技術在全世界成千上萬的
11:10
laboratories all over the world,
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實驗室中都可以實現的時候，
11:12
which is going to be the case with these technologies,
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之前提到的那些技術以後會普及開來，
11:14
when there are large numbers of people who see them as beneficial,
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當很多人發現某項技術大有裨益的時候，
11:16
which is already the case,
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我們已經看到了這些技術的優點，
11:18
and when they're almost impossible to police,
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還有，當某些技術幾乎無法管制的時候，
11:21
it's not a question of if this is going to happen,
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這種技術到底會不會被應用已不是問題，
11:23
it's when and where and how it's going to happen.
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真正緊要的是，它何時、何地以及怎樣開始被應用。
11:25
Humanity is going to go down this path.
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人類將沿此前行，
11:29
And it's going to do so for two reasons.
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原因有二。
11:31
The first is that all these technologies
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其一，所有這些技術，
11:34
are just a spin-off of mainstream medical research
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只是主流醫療研究的衍生物，
11:36
that everybody wants to see happen.
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每個人都對它們充滿期待。
11:38
It is being funded very very --
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資金來源
11:41
in a big way.
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亦非常充沛。
11:43
The second is, we're human.
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其二，我們都是人。
11:45
That's what we do.
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這出於人的本性。
11:47
We try and use our technology to
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我們努力用技術
11:49
improve our lives in one way or another.
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來改善自己。
11:51
To imagine that we're not going to use these technologies
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想像一下，等到這些技術成熟的時候，
11:54
when they become available,
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我們卻不用，
11:56
is as much a denial of who we are
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這簡直就是對我們本性的否定，
11:58
as to imagine
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按照常理，
12:00
that we'll use these technologies and not fret
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我們不僅要使用這些技術，
12:02
and worry about it a great deal.
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而且用不著怎麼擔心它。
12:05
The lines are going to blur. And they already are
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很多事物之間的界限會變得更加模糊，
12:08
between therapy and enhancement,
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比如治療和提升之間，
12:10
between treatment and prevention,
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治病和預防之間，
12:12
between need and desire.
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需求和渴望之間。
12:15
That's really the central one, I believe.
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我相信這才是核心問題。
12:18
People can try and ban these things.
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人們可以試圖去阻止。
12:20
They undoubtedly will. They have.
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毫無疑問他們會去阻止，其實已經在阻止。
12:22
But ultimately all this is going to do
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但最終造成的後果只能是
12:24
is just shift development elsewhere.
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讓發展導向別的地方，
12:27
It's going to drive these things from view.
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將這些趕出人們目所能及之處，
12:29
It's going to reserve the technology for the wealthy
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把技術留給富人，
12:31
because they are in the best position
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因為富人佔據著有利地位，
12:33
to circumvent any of these sorts of laws.
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可以操縱法律。
12:36
And it's going to deny us
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阻止這些技術還會使我們
12:38
the information that we need to make wise decisions
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無法得到需要的信息，作出明智的選擇，
12:40
about how to use these technologies.
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合理使用這些技術。
12:43
So, sure, we need to debate these things.
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所以，我們需要就這些進行辯論，
12:45
And I think it's wonderful that we do.
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我們正在辯論，這點我非常欣賞。
12:47
But we shouldn't kid ourselves
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但我們不應該欺騙自己，
12:50
and think that we're going to reach a consensus about these things.
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以為我們會達成共識，
12:53
That is simply not going to happen.
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因為這根本不會發生。
12:55
They touch us too deeply.
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這些辯論與我們聯繫得太緊密，
12:57
And they depend too much upon history, upon philosophy,
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與歷史、哲學、宗教、文化、政治
13:00
upon religion, upon culture, upon politics.
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都聯繫得太過緊密。
13:03
Some people are going to see this
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有人這樣看問題，
13:06
as an abomination,
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認為墮胎
13:08
as the worst thing, as just awful.
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是極其錯誤的，罪大惡極。
13:11
Other people are going to say, "This is great.
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另一些人則說：“這是很好的啊。
13:14
This is the flowering of human endeavor."
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簡直就是人類取得的成就中的奇葩。”
13:18
The one thing though that is really dangerous
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這類技術暗含著
13:21
about these sorts of technologies,
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一項極大的危險，
13:24
is that it's easy to become seduced by them.
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就是我們會輕易被它吸引，
13:28
And to focus too much on all
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將目光集中在
13:30
the high-technology possibilities that exist.
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所有可能的高科技發展。
13:33
And to lose touch
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相反卻不去管
13:36
with the basic rhythms of our biology and our health.
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那些與我們的生物學和健康最息息相關的部分。
13:38
There are too many people that think that high-technology medicine
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很多人以為，高科技醫療
13:41
is going to keep them, save them,
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可以拯救他們，
13:43
from overeating,
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以為暴飲暴食、
13:45
from eating a lot of fast foods,
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吃快餐食品、
13:47
from not getting any exercise.
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什麼運動都不做，也可以健康。
13:49
It's not going to happen.
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但這是不可能的。
13:51
In the midst of all this amazing technology,
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在所有令人稱奇的技術中，
13:53
and all these things that are occurring, it's really interesting
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所有正在發生的事情中，
13:56
because there is sort of a counter-revolution that is going on:
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有一股相反的改革力量，
13:59
a resurgence of interest in remedies from the past,
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比如古老的醫學重獲青睞，
14:04
in nutraceuticals, in all of these sorts of things
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主要集中在營養醫學這一類，
14:07
that some people, in the pharmaceutical industry particularly,
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但有的人，特別是製藥業界的人
14:10
like to brand as non-science.
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認為它是偽科學。
14:12
But this whole effort is generated,
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但這種傾向的產生和發展
14:15
is driven, by IT as well
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受到信息技術的影響，
14:18
because that is how we're gathering all this information,
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因為我們通過信息技術收集信息、
14:21
and linking it, and integrating it together.
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把信息聯繫在一起並加以整合。
14:23
There is a lot in this rich biota that is going to serve us well.
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其實它的其中資源豐富，可以很好地為我們服務，
14:28
And that's where about half of our drugs come.
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也是我們約一半藥物的來源，
14:30
So we shouldn't dismiss this
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所以我們不應該加以拒絕，
14:32
because it's an enormous opportunity to use
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因為現在正是絕佳的
14:34
these sorts of results,
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利用這些資源的機會，
14:37
or these random loose trials from the last thousand years
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或者說是千年來無數次不成功的嘗試，
14:40
about what has impacts on our health.
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尋找影響健康的因素。
14:42
And to use our advanced technologies
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運用先進的科技
14:44
to pull out what is beneficial from this
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從各種不相關的東西中
14:46
sea of noise, basically.
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找出對健康有益的因素。
14:49
In fact this isn't just abstract.
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事實上這不僅僅只是抽象概念，
14:52
I just formed a biotechnology company
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我剛剛成立了一家生物科技公司，
14:54
that is using
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用類似的方法
14:56
this sort of an approach to develop
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開發阿爾茨海默症的治療方案，
14:58
therapeutics for Alzheimer's and other diseases of aging,
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以及其他老年疾病的解決方案。
15:01
and we're making some real progress.
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我們已取得一些實質性的進展，
15:03
So here we are.
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所以今天就像你們看到的這樣。
15:05
It's the beginning of a new millennium.
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我們剛剛走進了一個新千年，
15:08
If you look forward,
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展望未來，
15:10
I mean future humans,
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我是說人類的未來，
15:12
far before the end of this millennium,
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在這個千年走到中間的時候，
15:15
in a few hundred years, they are going to look back at this moment.
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也就是幾百年之後，人們會回頭看此時此刻。
15:17
And from the beginning of today's sessions
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從今天演講的一開始，
15:20
you'd think that they're going to see this as this horrible
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你們可能意味，未來的人們眼中，現在是一個可怕的、
15:23
difficult, painful period
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艱難的、痛苦的時期，
15:25
that we struggled through.
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我們掙扎度過。
15:27
And I don't think that's what's going to happen.
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我的觀點恰恰相反，
15:30
They're going to do like everybody does. They are going to forget about all that stuff.
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他們和別人一樣，什麼都不會記得，
15:34
And they are actually going to romanticize this moment in time.
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實際上，他們會把這一刻描繪得更加浪漫，
15:37
They are going to think about it
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他們會把這一刻
15:39
as this glorious instant
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想像成榮耀的一刻，
15:41
when we laid down
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因為我們建立了基礎，
15:43
the very foundations of their lives,
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在這個之上，才有了他們享有的
15:46
of their society, of their future.
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生活、社會、未來。
15:48
You know it's a little bit like a birth.
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這就有點像嬰兒出生，
15:52
Where there is this bloody, awful mess happens.
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剛生出來的時候到處都是血跡，很噁心、很混亂，
15:55
And then what comes out of it? New life.
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但隨之而來的是什麼？新的生命。
15:59
Actually as was pointed out earlier,
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事實上正如之前所說，
16:02
we forget about all the struggle there was in getting there.
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我們已經忘記了走到今天這一步所經歷的種種磨難。
16:05
So to me,
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所以對我而言，
16:09
it's clear that one of the foundations of that future
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這樣的未來需要一個基礎，
16:11
is going to be the reworking of our biology.
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將是對我們生物學的改造發展，
16:15
It's going to come gradually at first. It's going to pick up speed.
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一開始循序漸進，之後慢慢地加快速度。
16:17
We're going to make lots of errors.
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我們會犯很多錯誤，
16:19
That's the way these things work.
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但這就是成功的必經之路。
16:21
To me it's an incredible privilege
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就我自己而言，活在世界上
16:24
to be alive now
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親眼見證這一切，
16:26
and to be able to witness this thing.
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就已經很不容易。
16:29
It is something that is a unique instant
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這是所有生命的歷史上
16:31
in the history of all of life.
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獨特的一刻。
16:34
It will always be remembered.
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它會被永遠地記住。
16:36
And what's extraordinary is that
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而且最不同尋常之初就是，
16:38
we're not just observing this,
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我們不僅是在觀察它，
16:40
we are the architects of this.
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我們也參與建構它
16:42
I think that we should be proud of it.
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我覺得我們應當感到自豪。
16:44
What is so difficult and challenging
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真正困難之處，真正的挑戰
16:47
is that we are also the objects of these changes.
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在於我們自己是改變的對象，
16:50
It's our health, it's our lives, it's our future, it's our children.
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我們的健康、生活、未來、子孫，都要被改變。
16:53
And that is why they are so very troubling to so many people
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這也解釋了為什麼這麼多人感到困擾，
16:57
who would pull back in fear.
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在恐懼中後退。
17:00
I think that our choice
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我認為，
17:03
in the choice of life,
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關於選擇生命這個問題，
17:05
is not whether we're going to go down this path.
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並不在於我們是否要沿著這條路走下去。
17:08
We are, definitely.
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我們一定要走下去。
17:10
It's how we hold it in our hearts.
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關鍵是我們應當怎樣認識這個問題，
17:13
It's how we look at it.
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怎樣看待它。
17:15
I think Thucydides really spoke to us very clearly
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修昔底德早在公元前430年就說過一句話，道理非常清楚，
17:18
in 430 B.C. He put it nicely.
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他的措辭也很恰當。
17:22
Again, I'll use the words in the same order he did.
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我在這裡想一字一句地複述他的原話。
17:25
"The bravest are surely those
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最勇敢的人
17:29
who have the clearest vision of what is before them,
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一定對面前的事物有著最清晰的認識，
17:32
both glory and danger alike.
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無論是榮譽還是危險，
17:35
And yet notwithstanding, they go out and they meet it."
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但不管怎樣，他們都會走出去迎接它的到來。
17:39
Thank you.
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謝謝大家。
17:41
(Applause)
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(掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Gregory Stock - Author, thinkerDr. Gregory Stock's levelheaded look at the hotpoints where tech and ethics connect (or short circuit) have made him a popular guest on TV and radio. He directs the Program on Science, Technology, and Society at UCLA.
Why you should listen
Bestselling author and lecturer Gregory Stock examines the evolutionary significance of technological progress. His 1993 book, Metaman, looks (optimistically) toward a future where the symbiotic relationship between human culture and technology increasingly resembles a "superorganism" that can respond, as a whole, to crises like global warming. 2003's Redesigning Humans poses the alluring -- and sometimes frightening -- possibility that human biology will soon become customizable: no mere question of availability, but a matter of personal choice.
Stock's other work includes Engineering the Human Germline, which looks at the implications of controlled evolution, and a set of perpetually-bestselling tabletop conversation-starters, the flagship of which is The Book of Questions.
Gregory Stock | Speaker | TED.com