TED Salon Brightline Initiative
Bhu Srinivasan: Capitalism isn't an ideology -- it's an operating system
Bhu Srinivasan: 资本主义不是意识形态，而是操作系统
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Bhu Srinivasan 研究资本主义和技术进步的交叉点。他并不认为资本主义是一种牢固的、不变的意识形态，而是觉得我们应该将其视为一种操作系统，本身也需要升级，才能跟上创新的步伐，比如即将到来的无人机送货服务。通过聆听这次快速，超前思考的演讲，你可以更好的了解自由市场的过去和未来（以及可能发生的，对于美国式资本主义的认知危机）。
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00:12
So, what is capitalism?
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什么是资本主义？
00:14
Capitalism, fundamentally,
is a series of marketplaces.
is a series of marketplaces.
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从本质上讲，资本主义是一系列市场的组合。
00:17
You can have a marketplace for lemonade,
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你可以有卖柠檬汽水的市场，
00:19
a marketplace for lemons,
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有卖柠檬的市场，
00:20
a marketplace for trucks
that transport lemons,
that transport lemons,
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有运送柠檬的卡车的市场，
00:22
a marketplace that fuels those trucks,
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有驱动这些卡车的燃料的市场，
00:25
marketplaces that sell wood
to build lemonade stands.
to build lemonade stands.
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有出售木头的市场，用来制作
放柠檬汽水的货架。
放柠檬汽水的货架。
00:28
However, capitalism of course, as we know,
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然而，一提到资本主义，
我们都知道，
我们都知道，
00:31
is this either celebrated term
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它要么是个褒义词，
00:33
or condemned term.
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要么是个贬义词。
00:35
It's either revered or it's reviled.
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要么是蜜糖，要么是砒霜。
00:37
And I'm here to argue
that this is because capitalism,
that this is because capitalism,
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而我要说的就是，这是因为
00:41
in the modern iteration,
is largely misunderstood.
is largely misunderstood.
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今天人们对资本主义有很深的误解。
00:44
In my view,
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在我看来，
00:46
capitalism should not
be thought of as an ideology,
be thought of as an ideology,
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资本主义不应该
被看成一种意识形态，
被看成一种意识形态，
00:48
but instead should be thought of
as an operating system.
as an operating system.
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而应该视其为一种操作系统。
00:52
Think of your iPhone.
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想想你的iPhone。
00:54
Your iPhone merges hardware with software.
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你的iPhone
是硬件和软件的组合。
是硬件和软件的组合。
00:58
Apps and hardware.
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是APP和硬件的组合。
01:00
Now think about all the hardware
as the physical reality all around you,
as the physical reality all around you,
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我们不妨把硬件
想象为我们周围的物理世界，
想象为我们周围的物理世界，
01:03
and think of the apps
as entrepreneurial activity,
as entrepreneurial activity,
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把APP想象成商业活动，
01:06
creative energy.
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具有创造性的能量。
01:08
And in-between,
you have an operating system.
you have an operating system.
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而这两者之间的就是操作系统。
01:11
As you have advances in hardware,
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你的硬件在发展，
01:13
you have advances in software.
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软件也在发展。
01:15
And the operating system needs to keep up.
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那相应的，操作系统也需要跟上。
01:17
It needs to be patched,
it needs to be updated,
it needs to be updated,
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需要安装补丁，需要升级，
01:20
new releases have to happen.
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要有新的版本。
01:22
And all of these things
have to happen symbiotically.
have to happen symbiotically.
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所有这些要同步发展。
01:25
The operating system needs
to keep getting more and more advanced
to keep getting more and more advanced
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操作系统需要不断进化，
01:28
to keep up with innovation.
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才能跟上创新的脚步。
01:31
And this is why, fundamentally,
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本质上来说，这就是为什么，
01:34
when you think about it
as an operating system,
as an operating system,
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当你把它看作一个操作系统的时候，
01:36
it devolves the language of ideology
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就会把传统的资本主义捍卫者
01:38
away from what traditional
defenders of capitalism think.
defenders of capitalism think.
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所认为的，它是一种
意识形态的看法摈弃。
意识形态的看法摈弃。
01:42
But even if you go to the constitution,
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但是，即使你去翻看宪法，
你会发现，在建国者们
通过第一修正案之前，
通过第一修正案之前，
01:44
you'll notice, before the founders
even got to the First Amendment --
even got to the First Amendment --
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关于言论、宗教和出版的自由，
01:47
with free speech,
free religion, free press,
free religion, free press,
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01:50
they thought about patents and copyright.
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他们首先想到的是专利和版权。
01:53
They talked about the government's role
in promoting arts and sciences.
in promoting arts and sciences.
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他们讨论的是政府
在推进艺术和科学发展中所起的作用。
在推进艺术和科学发展中所起的作用。
01:57
It's the reason why I could not start
a search engine tomorrow called Goggle.
a search engine tomorrow called Goggle.
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所以我不能明天上线一个搜索引擎，
把它叫做“果歌”。
把它叫做“果歌”。
02:02
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
02:03
Google doesn't own Gs,
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当然，谷歌只有一个G，
02:05
but I couldn't do it
because there could be some confusion.
because there could be some confusion.
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但我也不能这么干，
因为会引发歧义。
因为会引发歧义。
因此，即使是产权
也会有不明确之处。
也会有不明确之处。
02:07
So even property rights
have ambiguity built into them.
have ambiguity built into them.
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02:11
And on and on.
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这种情况有很多。
02:12
And by 1900, you have other types
of property that come into being.
of property that come into being.
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到1900年代，
其他类型的财产开始出现。
其他类型的财产开始出现。
02:16
For instance, imagine that in 1900,
you owned 100 acres of land
you owned 100 acres of land
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比如，假设你在1900年，
拥有100英亩的土地，
拥有100英亩的土地，
02:20
someplace in the Midwest.
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位于中西部的某处。
02:22
It's very easy to see
where your fence ends,
where your fence ends,
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你跟你邻居的土地，
很容易区分开来，
很容易区分开来，
02:24
your neighbor's property begins.
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看篱笆从哪里结束就行。
02:26
Now let me ask you,
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那么问题来了，
02:27
where in the sky does your property end?
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你的财产往空中延伸到哪里？
02:30
Does it end at 1,000 feet,
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是1000英尺高？
02:31
5,000 feet, 10,000 feet?
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还是5000英尺，
或者10000英尺？
或者10000英尺？
02:34
It makes no difference,
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其实区别不大，
02:35
because other than the novelty
of a few hot-air balloons,
of a few hot-air balloons,
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因为除非坐上
当时还很少见的的热气球，
当时还很少见的的热气球，
02:38
man couldn't fly.
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当时的人类并不会飞。
02:40
But within three years, he could.
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但3年之后，就可以了。
02:41
Now all of a sudden,
it was very much relevant
it was very much relevant
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突然之间，你的财产范围
是1000英尺高，
是1000英尺高，
02:44
whether your land ends
at 1,000 feet in the sky,
at 1,000 feet in the sky,
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还是5000英尺高，
或者10000英尺高，
或者10000英尺高，
一下子有了意义。
02:47
5,000 feet, 10,000 feet.
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02:49
And you have to have
someone arbitrate that.
someone arbitrate that.
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这就需要有人来进行裁决。
02:53
And indeed, that's exactly what happened.
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事实也是如此。
5年或者10年后，
02:55
And five or ten years from now,
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当亚马逊要将一个包裹
从UPS的卡车上
从UPS的卡车上
02:56
when Amazon wants to deliver a package
over your house to your neighbor
over your house to your neighbor
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03:00
from that UPS truck,
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越过你的房子送到你邻居家时，
03:01
we're going to have to decide:
Does you property end at five feet,
Does you property end at five feet,
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我们就要判断：
你的土地范围是5英尺高，
你的土地范围是5英尺高，
03:05
10 feet, 50 feet, 100 feet?
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还是10英尺，
50英尺，100英尺？
50英尺，100英尺？
03:07
Where does it end?
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到多高的地方结束？
没有哪种意识形态
03:09
And there is no ideology
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03:10
that will tell you
where your property ends.
where your property ends.
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会显示你的土地边界在哪里。
03:14
It's an operating system.
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这是一种操作系统。
03:16
And similarly,
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同样的，
03:17
we're going to see this with automobiles.
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我们来看一下汽车。
在怀特兄弟发明飞机几年后，
03:19
A few years after the Wright brothers
figured out flight,
figured out flight,
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我们开始越来越多地使用汽车。
03:22
human beings started using
more and more cars.
more and more cars.
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一夜之间，
03:24
And all of a sudden,
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03:25
the regulatory system --
the operating system --
the operating system --
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监管系统，或者说操作系统，
需要进行调整，
要更加关注消费者的安全。
要更加关注消费者的安全。
03:27
had to be patched to all of a sudden
address the safety of consumers.
address the safety of consumers.
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03:32
That the consumers of vehicles
were presenting danger to horses,
were presenting danger to horses,
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汽车消费者可能会危及路上的马匹，
03:35
other pedestrians, trolleys,
what have you.
what have you.
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行人，有轨电车，等等。
03:38
And all of a sudden,
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突然之间，
03:40
the drivers of these automobiles
had to have driver's licenses, eye exams,
had to have driver's licenses, eye exams,
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汽车驾驶员都需要拿驾照，测视力，
03:43
registered motor vehicles, speed limits,
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车辆登记，限速，
03:46
rules of the road,
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道路交通法规，
03:47
so that horses, pedestrians,
could coexist with cars.
could coexist with cars.
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这样才能让马匹、行人跟车辆共存。
03:52
It had to be backwards compatible.
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它必须向后兼容，
03:55
So a new invention had to basically fit
advances from the past.
advances from the past.
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也就是新的发明
必须能跟旧的事物相匹配。
必须能跟旧的事物相匹配。
04:00
Similarly, five or ten years from now,
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同样的，5-10年后，
我们会看到无人车
04:02
we're going to see the same thing
with self-driving cars --
with self-driving cars --
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04:05
coexisting with human-driven cars.
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跟传统汽车和平共处。
04:07
The reason why this is important,
is in 10 years,
is in 10 years,
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为什么这件事很重要呢，
因为在未来10年，
因为在未来10年，
04:09
another thing is going to happen
beyond drones and self-driving cars,
beyond drones and self-driving cars,
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还会有一件重要的事情发生，
它远比无人机或无人车重要，
它远比无人机或无人车重要，
04:12
but you're going to see
the most valuable economy in the world --
the most valuable economy in the world --
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你们将会看到
世界最有价值的经济体，
世界最有价值的经济体，
04:16
the largest economy in the world --
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世界最大的经济体，
04:17
is going to be a country
run by communists.
run by communists.
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将会是一个由共产党领导的国家。
04:20
The Chinese seem to be
very good at capitalism.
very good at capitalism.
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中国人似乎对资本主义很在行。
04:24
And this is going to have
fundamental problems
fundamental problems
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这将引发一个根本性的问题，
04:27
and present an identity crisis
for the United States.
for the United States.
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可能会在美国引发身份认知危机。
04:31
Because for a long time,
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因为长久以来，
04:33
free markets coincided with liberties
such as free speech, free press,
such as free speech, free press,
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自由市场是跟公民自由息息相关的，
比如言论自由、出版自由，
比如言论自由、出版自由，
04:39
free religion.
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宗教信仰自由。
04:40
And all of a sudden,
this equation is going to be decoupled.
this equation is going to be decoupled.
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突然之间，这二者分道扬镳了。
04:44
And when it gets decoupled,
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当这种情况出现时，
04:46
we might find that democracy,
the multitude of voices,
the multitude of voices,
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我们会发现，民主，多种言论，
04:49
actually impedes capitalism
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实际上阻碍了资本主义，
04:52
because a state that does not have
any pretense of limited government
any pretense of limited government
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因为一个国家，它的政府
如果有强大的行动力
如果有强大的行动力
04:56
can very quickly mandate
a regulatory framework for drones,
a regulatory framework for drones,
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就可以非常迅速地出台监管框架——
针对无人机，
针对无人机，
04:59
for electric cars, for self-driving cars,
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电动车，自动驾驶汽车，
05:02
for any new innovation
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任何新发明，
05:04
where they feel that they can leapfrog
Western societies.
Western societies.
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只要他们认为可以赶超西方社会。
05:08
And this is a very unique thing
in the American experience.
in the American experience.
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美国从未经历过这种事。
05:13
And this is why it's very important
to think of American capitalism
to think of American capitalism
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这就是为什么要将美国的资本主义
05:17
as an operating system
and not as an ideology.
and not as an ideology.
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看成一个操作系统而不是意识形态。
05:20
Because when you think about it
as an ideology,
as an ideology,
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因为一旦你把它看成意识形态，
05:22
you can have good politics
make for very, very bad policy.
make for very, very bad policy.
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你就有可能在好的政治制度下
制定出非常糟糕的政策。
制定出非常糟糕的政策。
05:28
That market outcomes and democratic voices
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那种市场结果和民主声音，
05:31
and battles for votes
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为争取选票的斗争，
05:33
can end up stifling progress.
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可能会阻碍进步。
05:37
So over the next few years,
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在接下来的数年间，
05:39
as this political cycle plays out,
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随着这种政治循环的上演，
05:41
you're going to see American democracy
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你会看到美国民主
05:45
rise to meet the challenges
that capitalism poses and modernity poses.
that capitalism poses and modernity poses.
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如何应对资本主义和现代化提出的挑战。
05:50
And I ask policymakers to think about --
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我呼吁政策制定者们好好考虑，
05:55
decoupling ideology from economics,
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将经济问题跟意识形态区分开，
05:59
and think about how good policy
can ultimately become good politics.
can ultimately become good politics.
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思考好的政策最终可以
如何成就好的政治制度。
如何成就好的政治制度。
06:03
Thank you.
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谢谢大家。
06:05
(Applause)
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（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Bhu Srinivasan - WriterBhu Srinivasan writes about economics, history and statecraft.
Why you should listen
Bhu Srinivasan's first book, AMERICANA: A 400-Year History of American Capitalism, explores the intersections of democracy and capitalism. The Economist selected it as one of its Best Books of 2017. A venture-backed entrepreneur from his early 20s, Srinivasan has built media properties in publishing, gaming, financial content, and technology ranging from video games to municipal bonds. He is currently working on adapting his book to television, identifying the next big things, and outlining his next book.
Bhu Srinivasan | Speaker | TED.com