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Sean Davis: Can we solve global warming? Lessons from how we protected the ozone layer
Sean Davis: 我们能解决全球变暖吗？从臭氧层保护中学到的经验
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蒙特利尔气候协定证明了全世界可以齐心协力对抗气候变化。在这个史上最成功的环保协定签订的三十年后，大气科学家Sean Davis向我们介绍了禁用含氯氟烃所避免的危害，以及我们能从中学到的对抗当代环境危机的经验。
Sean Davis - Research scientist
Sean Davis studies the climate impacts from human-caused changes of the chemical composition of the atmosphere. Full bio
Sean Davis studies the climate impacts from human-caused changes of the chemical composition of the atmosphere. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
So, I'm a climate scientist,
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我是一位气候科学家，
如果这个房间代表我们所处的国家，
00:16
and if this room is representative
of the country we live in,
of the country we live in,
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那么大约你们中的60%，
差不多从那里一直到我的右边，
差不多从那里一直到我的右边，
00:21
that means about 60 percent of you,
so maybe from about there over,
so maybe from about there over,
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不相信我在气候变化上的观点。
00:26
don't strongly trust me for information
on the causes of climate change.
on the causes of climate change.
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00:32
Now, I promise to tell the truth tonight,
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我保证今晚说的都是真话，
00:34
but just to humor that demographic,
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但是为了那些不相信我的人，
我会从一句假话谈起。
00:37
I've started this talk with a falsehood.
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[巴黎气候协定是对
气候变化的全球共识的产物]
气候变化的全球共识的产物]
00:39
[The Paris Climate Accord
is a product of the recognition
is a product of the recognition
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[巴黎气候协定是对
气候变化的全球共识的产物]
气候变化的全球共识的产物]
这话不是奥巴马总统说的。
00:42
that climate change
is a global problem ...]
is a global problem ...]
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00:44
This statement was not made
by President Obama.
by President Obama.
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是里根总统说的。
00:46
It was made by President Reagan,
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而且，它不是关于气候变化
和巴黎气候协定的，
和巴黎气候协定的，
00:48
and it wasn't about climate change
and the Paris Climate Accord.
and the Paris Climate Accord.
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它其实是关于蒙提利尔协定
00:51
It was actually
about the Montreal Protocol
about the Montreal Protocol
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和平流层臭氧损耗的。
00:53
and stratospheric ozone depletion.
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00:57
Now, I'm sure that many of you aren't
familiar with this environmental problem,
familiar with this environmental problem,
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我很确定你们当中很多人
不太熟悉臭氧层问题，
不太熟悉臭氧层问题，
但你们应该熟悉，
01:01
but you should be,
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因为这是一个很罕见的
成功的环保案例。
成功的环保案例。
01:03
because it's a rare
environmental success story.
environmental success story.
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这值得我们从中学习，
01:06
And it's worth revisiting,
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因为有时，我们需要从
所避免的环境灾难中学习，
所避免的环境灾难中学习，
01:08
because sometimes, we need
to examine the world we've avoided
to examine the world we've avoided
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才能更好地做出当下的选择。
01:12
in order to find guidance
for the choices we make today.
for the choices we make today.
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01:16
So let's go back to the 1970s,
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让我们回到1970年代。
在那个时代，人们
做出了一些不当的选择：
做出了一些不当的选择：
01:19
when some questionable choices were made:
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首先是发胶。
（笑声）
（笑声）
01:22
first of all -- hoo --
hairstyles. (Laughs)
hairstyles. (Laughs)
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其次，客观地说，
质量糟糕的喷发定型剂。
质量糟糕的喷发定型剂。
01:27
Second of all, objectively
terrible quantities of hairspray,
terrible quantities of hairspray,
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第三，CFC，也就是氯氟烃。
01:31
and third, CFCs, chlorofluorocarbons,
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CFC是人造的化学品，
被用作喷雾剂中的压缩气体。
被用作喷雾剂中的压缩气体。
01:36
man-made chemicals that were used
as propellant in aerosol spray cans.
as propellant in aerosol spray cans.
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01:41
And see, it turns out
these CFCs were a problem
these CFCs were a problem
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后来，人们发现CFC引发了一个问题，
因为它会破坏臭氧层。
01:44
because they were destroying
the ozone layer.
the ozone layer.
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我很确定大多数人都听说过臭氧层，
01:47
Now I'm sure most of you
have heard of the ozone layer,
have heard of the ozone layer,
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为什么我们要在意臭氧层呢？
01:50
but why does it matter?
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简单来说，臭氧层是地球的防晒霜，
01:51
Well, quite simply,
the ozone layer is earth's sunscreen,
the ozone layer is earth's sunscreen,
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而且它十分脆弱。
01:56
and it's really fragile.
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01:58
If you could take all of the ozone,
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臭氧大多都处于
地面以上20至25公里处，
地面以上20至25公里处，
若你取得地球上所有臭氧，
02:00
which is mostly about
10 to 20 miles up above our heads,
10 to 20 miles up above our heads,
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然后把它们压缩在地球表面，
02:03
and compress it down
to the surface of the earth,
to the surface of the earth,
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它会形成大概有两个分币厚的薄层，
02:06
it would form a thin shell
only about two pennies thick,
only about two pennies thick,
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大概3毫米厚。
02:10
about an eighth of an inch.
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02:12
And that thin shell does
an amazing amount of work, though.
an amazing amount of work, though.
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而这薄薄一层臭氧其实十分重要。
它能抵御超过90%源自太阳的
02:15
It filters out more than 90 percent
of the harmful UV radiation
of the harmful UV radiation
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有害紫外线辐射。
02:21
coming from the sun.
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02:23
And while I'm sure many of you
enjoy that suntan that you get
enjoy that suntan that you get
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虽然我知道很多人都喜欢晒太阳，
但即使是剩下10%的
紫外线辐射也能造成很多麻烦：
紫外线辐射也能造成很多麻烦：
02:28
from the remaining 10 percent,
it causes a lot of problems:
it causes a lot of problems:
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如白内障，
02:32
cataracts,
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02:34
damage to crops,
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损害农作物，
损伤免疫系统，
02:36
damage to immune systems
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02:38
and also skin cancer.
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以及皮肤癌。
02:40
It's not an exaggeration
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对臭氧层的威胁
02:42
to say that a threat to the ozone layer
is a threat to human safety.
is a threat to human safety.
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就是对人类安全的威胁，
并不是夸大其词。
并不是夸大其词。
02:47
And actually, ironically,
it was human safety
it was human safety
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讽刺的是，正是处于对人类安全的担忧，
02:50
that motivated the invention
of CFCs in the first place.
of CFCs in the first place.
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促成了氟利昂的发明。
在电冰箱刚刚投入使用时，
02:53
You see, in the early days
of refrigeration,
of refrigeration,
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会使用有毒，易燃的化学品，
02:55
refrigerators used toxic
and flammable chemicals
and flammable chemicals
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如丙烷和氨。
02:59
like propane and ammonia.
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03:01
For good reason,
the refrigeration industry
the refrigeration industry
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所以制冷工业想要一个
更安全的替代物，
03:03
wanted a safe alternative,
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他们在1928年找到了它。
03:05
and they found that in 1928,
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一位叫做Thomas Midgley的科学家
03:07
when a scientist named Thomas Midgley
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率先合成了商业上可用的CFC。
03:10
synthesized the first
commercially viable CFCs.
commercially viable CFCs.
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03:14
And in fact, Midgley famously
inhaled CFCs and blew out a candle
inhaled CFCs and blew out a candle
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事实上，Midgley在一场学术论坛上
亲自吸入了CFC并用其吹灭了一支蜡烛，
03:20
to demonstrate,
at a scientific conference,
at a scientific conference,
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来证明CFC十分安全并不易燃。
03:22
that they were safe and nonflammable.
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其实，作为一名科学家，我可以告诉你，
03:25
And in fact, as a scientist,
I can tell you there is no way
I can tell you there is no way
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现在你可没办法像他这样演示。
03:28
you could get away
with that kind of antic today.
with that kind of antic today.
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真的，这让人感觉不可思议。
03:30
I mean, wow.
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03:33
But really, at the time,
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而在那时，
CFC是一项十分卓越的发明。
03:34
CFCs were a really remarkable invention.
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它促成了当代的制冷技术，
03:38
They allowed what we now know
as modern-day refrigeration
as modern-day refrigeration
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还有空调等等。
03:42
and air-conditioning and other things.
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03:44
So it wasn't actually until
over 40 years later, in the 1970s,
over 40 years later, in the 1970s,
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直到四十年之后的1970年代，
科学家们才意识到CFC
会在大气层的高处降解，
会在大气层的高处降解，
03:50
when scientists realized that CFCs
would break down high in the atmosphere
would break down high in the atmosphere
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破坏臭氧层。
03:55
and damage the ozone layer.
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这个发现引发了公众的担忧。
03:57
And this finding really set off
a lot of public concern.
a lot of public concern.
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最后在1978年，
美国和一些其他国家禁止
美国和一些其他国家禁止
04:00
It led, ultimately, to the banning
of CFC usage in aerosol spray cans
of CFC usage in aerosol spray cans
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04:05
in the US and a few
other countries in 1978.
other countries in 1978.
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在喷雾剂中使用CFC。
04:09
Now, the story doesn't end there,
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而故事可没在那时结束，
因为CFC不止被用在喷雾剂中。
04:11
because CFCs were used
in much more than just spray cans.
in much more than just spray cans.
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04:15
In 1985, scientists discovered
the Antarctic ozone hole,
the Antarctic ozone hole,
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在1985年，科学家发现了
南极上空的臭氧层空洞，
南极上空的臭氧层空洞，
04:20
and this was a truly alarming discovery.
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这是一项十分让人警醒的发现。
科学家们完全没有预料到。
04:23
Scientists did not expect this at all.
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04:28
Before the Antarctic ozone hole,
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在此前，
科学家们预期一个世纪中
大概会有5%至10%的
大概会有5%至10%的
04:29
scientists expected
maybe a five or 10 percent reduction
maybe a five or 10 percent reduction
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04:33
in ozone over a century.
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臭氧衰减。
04:35
But what they found
over the course of less than a decade
over the course of less than a decade
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但他们发现，在不到十年中，
在面积超过美国的地区上方，
04:40
was that more than a third of the ozone
had simply vanished,
had simply vanished,
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超过三分之一的臭氧消失了。
04:44
over an area larger
than the size of the US.
than the size of the US.
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04:48
And although we now know that CFCs
are the root cause of this ozone hole,
are the root cause of this ozone hole,
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虽然我们现在知道CFC
是臭氧层空洞的祸根，
是臭氧层空洞的祸根，
当时，学术上还远远没有定论。
04:52
at the time, the science
was far from settled.
was far from settled.
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04:56
Yet despite this uncertainty,
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而尽管有这样的不确定性，
那场危机却得以
促使各个国家采取行动。
促使各个国家采取行动。
04:59
the crisis helped spur nations to act.
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05:02
So that quote that I started
this talk with,
this talk with,
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回到我开始时引用里根总统
关于蒙特利尔协定的那句话——
05:06
about the Montreal Protocol,
from President Reagan --
from President Reagan --
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05:09
that was his signing statement
when he signed the Montreal Protocol
when he signed the Montreal Protocol
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那是美国参议院一致通过之后，
里根总统签订协议时候的声明。
05:13
after its unanimous ratification
by the US Senate.
by the US Senate.
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这是一件真正值得庆祝的事。
05:17
And this is something
that's truly worth celebrating.
that's truly worth celebrating.
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其实，昨天就是蒙特利尔协定
签订的三十周年。
签订的三十周年。
05:19
In fact, yesterday was the 30th
anniversary of the Montreal Protocol.
anniversary of the Montreal Protocol.
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（掌声)
05:24
(Applause)
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因为这项协定，
05:30
Because of the protocol,
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05:32
ozone-depleting substances
are now declining in our atmosphere,
are now declining in our atmosphere,
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大气层中侵害臭氧的物质正在减少，
而我们也已经看到了
臭氧层恢复的初步征兆。
臭氧层恢复的初步征兆。
05:36
and we're starting to see the first signs
of healing in the ozone layer.
of healing in the ozone layer.
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05:41
And furthermore, because many
of those ozone-depleting substances
of those ozone-depleting substances
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而且，因为很多侵害臭氧的物质
同时也是强力的温室气体，
05:45
are also very potent greenhouse gases,
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蒙特利尔协定将全球变暖的发生
05:47
the Montreal Protocol
has actually delayed global warming
has actually delayed global warming
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05:50
by more than a decade.
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推迟了十年。
05:52
That's just wonderful.
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那太棒了。
05:54
But I think it's worth
asking the question,
asking the question,
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但我觉得我们应该思索这个问题，
特别是当我们面对当下
全球变暖的环境问题时，
全球变暖的环境问题时，
05:59
as we face our current
environmental crisis, global warming,
environmental crisis, global warming,
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我们可以从蒙特利尔协定中学到什么？
06:02
what lessons can we learn from Montreal?
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有值得借鉴之处吗？我觉得有。
06:05
Are there any? I think there are.
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06:08
First, we don't need
absolute certainty to act.
absolute certainty to act.
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首先，我们并不需要
百分之百确定才采取行动。
百分之百确定才采取行动。
06:13
When Montreal was signed,
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当蒙特利尔协定签订时，
我们对于CFC的危害远不如
06:15
we were less certain then
of the risks from CFCs
of the risks from CFCs
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06:19
than we are now of the risks
from greenhouse gas emissions.
from greenhouse gas emissions.
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我们现在对温室气体的危害来的确定。
06:25
A common tactic that people
who oppose climate action use
who oppose climate action use
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有些反对针对气候变化
采取行动的人常用的说辞
采取行动的人常用的说辞
就是无视风险而单单强调不确定性。
06:28
is to completely ignore risk
and focus only on uncertainty.
and focus only on uncertainty.
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06:33
But so what about uncertainty?
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不确定又如何呢？
06:35
We make decisions in the face
of uncertainty all the time,
of uncertainty all the time,
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我们每时每刻都在面对不确定性。
真的，每时每刻。
06:39
literally all the time.
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我想你们很多人都是开车来这里的，
06:41
You know, I'll bet those of you
who drove here tonight,
who drove here tonight,
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你们大概系了安全带。
06:45
you probably wore your seat belt.
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06:48
And so ask yourself,
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请想一下，
你系安全带是因为有人告诉你，
06:50
did you wear your seat belt
because someone told you
because someone told you
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06:52
with a hundred percent [certainty]
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你有百分之百的可能
06:54
that you would get
in a car crash on the way here?
in a car crash on the way here?
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会在来这儿的路上出车祸吗？
06:57
Probably not.
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大概不是。
所以这就是我们学到的第一件事。
06:59
So that's the first lesson.
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风险管理和决策制定永远都
伴随着不确定性。
伴随着不确定性。
07:01
Risk management and decision making
always have uncertainty.
always have uncertainty.
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07:05
Ignoring risk and focusing
only on uncertainty is a distraction.
only on uncertainty is a distraction.
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忽视风险而专注于不确定性
只会分散我们的注意力。
只会分散我们的注意力。
07:10
In other words, inaction is an action.
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换句话说，不做选择也是一种选择。
07:16
Second, it takes a village
to raise a healthy environment.
to raise a healthy environment.
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第二，创造健康的环境
需要来自多方的努力。
需要来自多方的努力。
07:22
The Montreal Protocol wasn't just
put together by industry and governments
put together by industry and governments
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蒙特利尔协定不仅仅
是由行业机构和政府
是由行业机构和政府
或是环保活动家和科学家单独制定的，
07:26
or environmental advocacy
groups and scientists.
groups and scientists.
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而是由他们所有人一起制定的。
07:30
It was put together by all of them.
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他们都有所参与，
07:32
They all had a seat at the table,
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都在解决臭氧层问题中发挥了重要作用。
07:35
and they all played
an important role in the solution.
an important role in the solution.
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我想在这个方面，
07:38
And I think in this regard,
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我们在今天也做得很好。
07:39
we're actually seeing
some encouraging signs today.
some encouraging signs today.
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我们不仅看到环保组织
致力于对抗气候变化，
致力于对抗气候变化，
07:41
We see not just environmental groups
concerned about climate change
concerned about climate change
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还有公民运动和宗教组织，
07:46
but also civic and religious groups,
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军事组织和商业组织。
07:49
the military and businesses.
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07:52
So wherever you find yourself
on that spectrum,
on that spectrum,
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所以不管你是谁，
我们需要你的参与，
07:55
we need you at the table,
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因为解决全球变暖
07:57
because if we're going
to solve global warming,
to solve global warming,
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需要各个层面的行动，
07:59
it's going to take actions at all levels,
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从个人到国际，
08:01
from the individual to the international
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还有两者之间的每个层面。
08:04
and everything in between.
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08:08
Third lesson:
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第三点：
08:10
don't let the perfect
be the enemy of the good.
be the enemy of the good.
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不要拘泥于完美而止步不前。
08:14
While Montreal has become the brake pedal
for stopping ozone depletion,
for stopping ozone depletion,
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虽然蒙特利尔协定最终
成为了臭氧损耗的休止符，
成为了臭氧损耗的休止符，
在最开始，它的效果并不明显。
08:19
at its beginning, it was more
just like a tap on the brakes.
just like a tap on the brakes.
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08:24
It was actually the later
amendments to the protocol
amendments to the protocol
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其实是之后对协定的修正
真正阻止了臭氧损耗。
08:27
that really marked the decision
to hit the brakes on ozone depletion.
to hit the brakes on ozone depletion.
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08:33
So to those who despair
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所以对那些悲观主义者，
08:34
that the Paris Climate Accord
didn't go far enough
didn't go far enough
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他们觉得巴黎气候协定做的远远不够，
或是一个人的努力解决不了全球变暖，
08:37
or that your limited actions on their own
won't solve global warming,
won't solve global warming,
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我会说，不要拘泥于完美而止步不前。
08:42
I say don't let the perfect
be the enemy of the good.
be the enemy of the good.
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08:48
And finally, I think it helps us
to contemplate the world we've avoided.
to contemplate the world we've avoided.
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最后，我想这有助于
我反思所避免的危害。
我反思所避免的危害。
08:54
Indeed, the world we have avoided
by enacting the Montreal Protocol
by enacting the Montreal Protocol
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的确，我们通过蒙特利尔协定避免的
是对环境和人类的
09:00
is one of catastrophic changes
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灾难性的变化。
09:02
to our environment
and to human well-being.
and to human well-being.
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09:05
By the 2030s, we'll be avoiding millions
of new skin cancer cases per year
of new skin cancer cases per year
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到2030年，我们会避免每年
数以百万计的皮肤癌病例
数以百万计的皮肤癌病例
这个数字只会增长。
09:12
with a number that would only grow.
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09:15
If I'm lucky, I'll live long enough
to see the end of this animation
to see the end of this animation
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如果我够幸运，就能够
见证这场变化的结尾，
见证这场变化的结尾，
看到臭氧层恢复到它原初的状态。
09:19
and to see the ozone hole
restored to its natural state.
restored to its natural state.
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09:24
So as we write the story
for earth's climate future
for earth's climate future
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所以，当我们在这个世纪以及未来
书写地球气候的历史时。
09:27
for this century and beyond,
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我们要问自己，我们要做什么
09:29
we need to ask ourselves,
what will our actions be
what will our actions be
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09:32
so that someone can stand on this stage
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才能让30，50，或者100年后，
有人能够站在这个舞台上，
09:35
in 30 or 50 or a hundred years
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09:39
to celebrate the world
that they've avoided.
that they've avoided.
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庆祝他们避免的种种灾害。
09:43
Thank you.
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谢谢。
（掌声）
09:44
(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Sean Davis - Research scientistSean Davis studies the climate impacts from human-caused changes of the chemical composition of the atmosphere.
Why you should listen
Sean Davis studies long-term change in the chemical composition and circulation of the stratosphere, with an emphasis on human-caused perturbations to the Earth’s protective ozone layer and their impact on climate at the surface. He is a research scientist at the University of Colorado's Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory’s Chemical Sciences Division.
Sean Davis | Speaker | TED.com