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TEDGlobal 2010

Laurie Santos: A monkey economy as irrational as ours

ローリー・サントス: 猿の経済界にも見られる不合理性

July 16, 2010

ローリー・サントスが人間の不合理性の元を探すべく、他の霊長類がどのような決断をするのか観察をします。猿を対象にした数々の実験から、人間と同様に、猿も愚かな選択をすることがわかります。

Laurie Santos - Cognitive psychologist
Laurie Santos studies primate psychology and monkeynomics -- testing problems in human psychology on primates, who (not so surprisingly) have many of the same predictable irrationalities we do. Full bio

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Double-click the English subtitles below to play the video.
I want to start my talk today with two observations
ヒトに関する2つの事柄を
00:17
about the human species.
まずお話したいと思います
00:19
The first observation is something that you might think is quite obvious,
一つめの事柄は当たり前のように聞こえるかもしれませんが
00:21
and that's that our species, Homo sapiens,
我々ホモサピエンスは
00:24
is actually really, really smart --
実に頭の良い種です
00:26
like, ridiculously smart --
その頭の良さは
00:28
like you're all doing things
馬鹿げているほどで
00:30
that no other species on the planet does right now.
他の種がしていないことを
00:32
And this is, of course,
こなしています
00:35
not the first time you've probably recognized this.
これは周知の事実ですが
00:37
Of course, in addition to being smart, we're also an extremely vain species.
虚栄心の強い種でもあるため
00:39
So we like pointing out the fact that we're smart.
自分たちの賢さを示すのが好きなのです
00:42
You know, so I could turn to pretty much any sage
シェークスピアから
00:45
from Shakespeare to Stephen Colbert
スティーブン・コルベアまで
00:47
to point out things like the fact that
賢者を見れば
00:49
we're noble in reason and infinite in faculties
人間とは理性と才能に恵まれ
00:51
and just kind of awesome-er than anything else on the planet
どんな生き物よりも
00:53
when it comes to all things cerebral.
知的であることがわかります
00:55
But of course, there's a second observation about the human species
でも私が強調したいのは
00:58
that I want to focus on a little bit more,
二つめの事柄です
01:00
and that's the fact that
人間ほど賢い生き物はいないのに
01:02
even though we're actually really smart, sometimes uniquely smart,
決断力に関しては
01:04
we can also be incredibly, incredibly dumb
驚くほど愚かな決断を
01:07
when it comes to some aspects of our decision making.
してしまうことがある点です
01:10
Now I'm seeing lots of smirks out there.
ニヤニヤしている方
01:13
Don't worry, I'm not going to call anyone in particular out
具体的な名前は出しませんので
01:15
on any aspects of your own mistakes.
ご心配なく
01:17
But of course, just in the last two years
でも過去2年間に
01:19
we see these unprecedented examples of human ineptitude.
先例のない愚かな出来事がありました
01:21
And we've watched as the tools we uniquely make
資源採取のために人間がつくった道具が
01:24
to pull the resources out of our environment
悲惨な結果を招いたのも
01:27
kind of just blow up in our face.
見てきました
01:29
We've watched the financial markets that we uniquely create --
我々がつくった金融市場は
01:31
these markets that were supposed to be foolproof --
確実であったはずなのに
01:33
we've watched them kind of collapse before our eyes.
崩壊してしまいました
01:36
But both of these two embarrassing examples, I think,
でも この二つの例は
01:38
don't highlight what I think is most embarrassing
もっとも情けない間違いを
01:40
about the mistakes that humans make,
浮き彫りにはしていません
01:43
which is that we'd like to think that the mistakes we make
間違いを犯す原因は 少しばかりの困った問題があったり
01:45
are really just the result of a couple bad apples
もの笑いのタネになる決断を
01:48
or a couple really sort of FAIL Blog-worthy decisions.
してしまうからだと解釈したいところですが
01:50
But it turns out, what social scientists are actually learning
社会科学者の研究でわかったのは
01:53
is that most of us, when put in certain contexts,
ほとんどの人は ある状況に置かれると
01:56
will actually make very specific mistakes.
ある種の決まった間違いをするのです
01:59
The errors we make are actually predictable.
間違いに意外性はなく
02:02
We make them again and again.
人は間違いを繰り返します
02:04
And they're actually immune to lots of evidence.
警告があっても動じません
02:06
When we get negative feedback,
否定的な意見を言われると
02:08
we still, the next time we're face with a certain context,
次に同じ状況に直面するときに
02:10
tend to make the same errors.
同じ間違いをする傾向があります
02:13
And so this has been a real puzzle to me
人間の本質を研究している私には
02:15
as a sort of scholar of human nature.
この点が謎なのです
02:17
What I'm most curious about is,
一番興味があるのは
02:19
how is a species that's as smart as we are
これだけ賢い種である人間が
02:21
capable of such bad
このような間違いを
02:24
and such consistent errors all the time?
常にし続けるのか ということです
02:26
You know, we're the smartest thing out there, why can't we figure this out?
賢いはずの人間が なぜ解決策を見つけられないのでしょう?
02:28
In some sense, where do our mistakes really come from?
何が引き金になるのだろうと思いを巡らしていたら
02:31
And having thought about this a little bit, I see a couple different possibilities.
原因になり得る事柄が いくつか浮かびました
02:34
One possibility is, in some sense, it's not really our fault.
一つめは 我々の責任ではないという見解です
02:37
Because we're a smart species,
人間は賢いので
02:40
we can actually create all kinds of environments
非常に複雑な環境を
02:42
that are super, super complicated,
つくり出すことができます
02:44
sometimes too complicated for us to even actually understand,
時に複雑すぎて自ら作ったものを
02:46
even though we've actually created them.
理解できないことすらあります
02:49
We create financial markets that are super complex.
入り組んだ金融市場をつくり
02:51
We create mortgage terms that we can't actually deal with.
返済しきれない住宅ローンを組んだりします
02:53
And of course, if we are put in environments where we can't deal with it,
もちろん 対応できない状況に置かれれば
02:56
in some sense makes sense that we actually
ある意味 我々が
02:59
might mess certain things up.
物事を悪化させるのもわかります
03:01
If this was the case, we'd have a really easy solution
もしそうならば
03:03
to the problem of human error.
解決策は至って簡単
03:05
We'd actually just say, okay, let's figure out
扱いきれない技術や
03:07
the kinds of technologies we can't deal with,
悪影響を及ぼす環境を
03:09
the kinds of environments that are bad --
見つけたら取り払い
03:11
get rid of those, design things better,
より良いものをデザインすれば
03:13
and we should be the noble species
人間は期待通りに
03:15
that we expect ourselves to be.
立派な種になるはずです
03:17
But there's another possibility that I find a little bit more worrying,
でも混乱状態にあるのは環境ではなく
03:19
which is, maybe it's not our environments that are messed up.
いい加減につくられた人間なのでは?
03:22
Maybe it's actually us that's designed badly.
社会科学者が人間の間違いを
03:25
This is a hint that I've gotten
見つけ出す方法を見ていて
03:28
from watching the ways that social scientists have learned about human errors.
私はそう思いました
03:30
And what we see is that people tend to keep making errors
人間は同じ間違いを
03:33
exactly the same way, over and over again.
何度も繰り返す傾向があるため
03:36
It feels like we might almost just be built
人間のつくりを
03:39
to make errors in certain ways.
疑ってしまうほどです
03:41
This is a possibility that I worry a little bit more about,
もし問題が人間自体にあるのなら
03:43
because, if it's us that's messed up,
どう対処すればいいのか
03:46
it's not actually clear how we go about dealing with it.
わからないことが問題です
03:48
We might just have to accept the fact that we're error prone
間違いをしがちだという事実を受け入れて
03:50
and try to design things around it.
問題を避けられるデザインが必要かもしれません
03:53
So this is the question my students and I wanted to get at.
私が学生と共に究明したかったのは
03:55
How can we tell the difference between possibility one and possibility two?
可能性1と可能性2の違いを見出すことです
03:58
What we need is a population
必要としていたのは
04:01
that's basically smart, can make lots of decisions,
賢くて 決断力があるけれど
04:03
but doesn't have access to any of the systems we have,
人間を狂わせる材料に
04:05
any of the things that might mess us up --
手の届かない生き物
04:07
no human technology, human culture,
テクノロジーや文化や言葉を
04:09
maybe even not human language.
有しない生き物です
04:11
And so this is why we turned to these guys here.
こうして決定した
04:13
These are one of the guys I work with. This is a brown capuchin monkey.
研究の協力者はオマキザルです
04:15
These guys are New World primates,
新世界ザルとも呼ばれるのは
04:18
which means they broke off from the human branch
約3500万年前に
04:20
about 35 million years ago.
ヒトから分岐したからです
04:22
This means that your great, great, great great, great, great --
「ひい」を500万回つけた
04:24
with about five million "greats" in there --
我々のひいおばあちゃんと
04:26
grandmother was probably the same great, great, great, great
彼らのひいおばあちゃんが
04:28
grandmother with five million "greats" in there
同一人物であったと
04:30
as Holly up here.
言えるわけです
04:32
You know, so you can take comfort in the fact that this guy up here is a really really distant,
この猿と人間は非常に離れていながらも
04:34
but albeit evolutionary, relative.
親戚にあたります
04:37
The good news about Holly though is that
ホリーは人間のような
04:39
she doesn't actually have the same kinds of technologies we do.
技術を持ち合わせていません
04:41
You know, she's a smart, very cut creature, a primate as well,
賢くて可愛い霊長類ですが
04:44
but she lacks all the stuff we think might be messing us up.
人間を狂わせる要素を持ち合わせていないので
04:47
So she's the perfect test case.
この実験には完璧です
04:49
What if we put Holly into the same context as humans?
ホリーを人間と同じ境遇に置いたら
04:51
Does she make the same mistakes as us?
人間と同じ間違いをしたり
04:54
Does she not learn from them? And so on.
間違いから学ぶのか―
04:56
And so this is the kind of thing we decided to do.
実験してみることにしました
04:58
My students and I got very excited about this a few years ago.
数年前 このアイデアを思いつき
05:00
We said, all right, let's, you know, throw so problems at Holly,
ホリーは この問題を
05:02
see if she messes these things up.
どう対処するか見てみようということになりました
05:04
First problem is just, well, where should we start?
人間の間違いだけでも
05:06
Because, you know, it's great for us, but bad for humans.
あまりにも題材が多くて
05:09
We make a lot of mistakes in a lot of different contexts.
どこから着手したらいいのか
05:11
You know, where are we actually going to start with this?
迷いました
05:13
And because we started this work around the time of the financial collapse,
この研究を始めたとき 金融崩壊が起き
05:15
around the time when foreclosures were hitting the news,
差し押さえが相次いだので
05:18
we said, hhmm, maybe we should
私たちは金融の領域が
05:20
actually start in the financial domain.
研究題材にいいのではと思ったのです
05:22
Maybe we should look at monkey's economic decisions
猿の経済的決断の仕方を観察して
05:24
and try to see if they do the same kinds of dumb things that we do.
人間同様 愚かな間違いをするか見てみるのです
05:27
Of course, that's when we hit a sort second problem --
このとき二つめの問題にぶちあたりました
05:30
a little bit more methodological --
少々 方法論的な
05:32
which is that, maybe you guys don't know,
問題なのですが
05:34
but monkeys don't actually use money. I know, you haven't met them.
猿はお金を使いません
05:36
But this is why, you know, they're not in the queue behind you
スーパーや銀行で
05:39
at the grocery store or the ATM -- you know, they don't do this stuff.
列に並ぶ猿などいないので
05:41
So now we faced, you know, a little bit of a problem here.
お金に対する質問を
05:44
How are we actually going to ask monkeys about money
どうやって猿にしたらいいのか
05:47
if they don't actually use it?
問題になりましたが
05:49
So we said, well, maybe we should just, actually just suck it up
ともかく 猿に
05:51
and teach monkeys how to use money.
お金の使い方を
05:53
So that's just what we did.
教えてみることにしました
05:55
What you're looking at over here is actually the first unit that I know of
これはお金の代わりに使った
05:57
of non-human currency.
造り物の通貨です
06:00
We weren't very creative at the time we started these studies,
研究を始めた当初は
06:02
so we just called it a token.
単にトークンと呼んでいたもので
06:04
But this is the unit of currency that we've taught our monkeys at Yale
エール大学で この通貨を使って
06:06
to actually use with humans,
人間から食べ物を得るために
06:09
to actually buy different pieces of food.
猿を調教しました
06:11
It doesn't look like much -- in fact, it isn't like much.
トークンは大したことない
06:14
Like most of our money, it's just a piece of metal.
ただの金属片です
06:16
As those of you who've taken currencies home from your trip know,
海外旅行から持ち帰り
06:18
once you get home, it's actually pretty useless.
無用になったお金と一緒で
06:21
It was useless to the monkeys at first
最初 猿はその利用価値が
06:23
before they realized what they could do with it.
わからなかったので
06:25
When we first gave it to them in their enclosures,
柵に入れられたトークンを
06:27
they actually kind of picked them up, looked at them.
拾って眺めたものの
06:29
They were these kind of weird things.
特に意味はなしませんでした
06:31
But very quickly, the monkeys realized
でも 猿はすぐに
06:33
that they could actually hand these tokens over
トークンを渡せば
06:35
to different humans in the lab for some food.
食べ物がもらえることに気づきました
06:37
And so you see one of our monkeys, Mayday, up here doing this.
猿のメーデーが実践しています
06:40
This is A and B are kind of the points where she's sort of a little bit
左の二つの写真は 好奇心を
06:42
curious about these things -- doesn't know.
示しているところです
06:45
There's this waiting hand from a human experimenter,
手を差し出す実験者がいて
06:47
and Mayday quickly figures out, apparently the human wants this.
メーデーはこの人が欲しがっていることを察します
06:49
Hands it over, and then gets some food.
渡すと食べ物がもらえます
06:52
It turns out not just Mayday, all of our monkeys get good
どの猿も 人間にトークンを差し出し
06:54
at trading tokens with human salesman.
食べ物が得られます
06:56
So here's just a quick video of what this looks like.
ビデオを用意しました
06:58
Here's Mayday. She's going to be trading a token for some food
メーデーがトークンを差し出し
07:00
and waiting happily and getting her food.
嬉しそうに待ち 食べ物をもらいます
07:03
Here's Felix, I think. He's our alpha male; he's a kind of big guy.
ボス的存在のフィリックスも
07:06
But he too waits patiently, gets his food and goes on.
辛抱強く待って食べ物をもらいます
07:08
So the monkeys get really good at this.
あまり訓練をしなくても
07:11
They're surprisingly good at this with very little training.
どの猿も やり方を
07:13
We just allowed them to pick this up on their own.
覚えてしまいました
07:16
The question is: is this anything like human money?
これは人間が扱うお金と同じなのか
07:18
Is this a market at all,
それとも 猿が
07:20
or did we just do a weird psychologist's trick
賢く見えるだけで
07:22
by getting monkeys to do something,
実はそうではないのか
07:24
looking smart, but not really being smart.
疑問に思いました
07:26
And so we said, well, what would the monkeys spontaneously do
猿がお金に匹敵するものを本当に使っていたら
07:28
if this was really their currency, if they were really using it like money?
猿は自発的に何をするのか 気になりました
07:31
Well, you might actually imagine them
人間が金銭の授受をするように
07:34
to do all the kinds of smart things
猿も賢いことをすると
07:36
that humans do when they start exchanging money with each other.
想像する人がいるかもしれません
07:38
You might have them start paying attention to price,
トークンがあれば どれだけのものを
07:41
paying attention to how much they buy --
買えるのかと
07:44
sort of keeping track of their monkey token, as it were.
猿が関心をもつのかどうか
07:46
Do the monkeys do anything like this?
突き止めるため
07:49
And so our monkey marketplace was born.
猿の市場をつくり出しました
07:51
The way this works is that
対象となった猿は
07:54
our monkeys normally live in a kind of big zoo social enclosure.
動物園のような社会的囲いの中で通常暮らしています
07:56
When they get a hankering for some treats,
おやつを欲しがるときに
07:59
we actually allowed them a way out
市場へつながる小さな囲いに
08:01
into a little smaller enclosure where they could enter the market.
誘い込みます
08:03
Upon entering the market --
そこは人間の市場より
08:05
it was actually a much more fun market for the monkeys than most human markets
楽しさがある場所にしました
08:07
because, as the monkeys entered the door of the market,
猿がドアをくぐると トークンがたくさん入った
08:09
a human would give them a big wallet full of tokens
財布が渡されます
08:12
so they could actually trade the tokens
トークンを使って
08:14
with one of these two guys here --
物を得られる仕組みです
08:16
two different possible human salesmen
2人のセールスマンが
08:18
that they could actually buy stuff from.
商品を用意しています
08:20
The salesmen were students from my lab.
学生にセールスマンになってもらい
08:22
They dressed differently; they were different people.
それぞれ違う格好をしました
08:24
And over time, they did basically the same thing
何度も同じことを繰り返し
08:26
so the monkeys could learn, you know,
猿に仕組みを教えました
08:29
who sold what at what price -- you know, who was reliable, who wasn't, and so on.
商品や値段や誰が信頼できるかなどです
08:31
And you can see that each of the experimenters
実験者が持っている
08:34
is actually holding up a little, yellow food dish.
黄色い小皿に乗っている量が
08:36
and that's what the monkey can for a single token.
トークン1枚で買えるものです
08:39
So everything costs one token,
どれもトークン1枚分ですが
08:41
but as you can see, sometimes tokens buy more than others,
時々ぶどうが多く得られるように
08:43
sometimes more grapes than others.
設定しました
08:45
So I'll show you a quick video of what this marketplace actually looks like.
実際のビデオをご覧ください
08:47
Here's a monkey-eye-view. Monkeys are shorter, so it's a little short.
猿の視点から撮影したものです
08:50
But here's Honey.
これは猿のハニー
08:53
She's waiting for the market to open a little impatiently.
市場の開店を待っています
08:55
All of a sudden the market opens. Here's her choice: one grapes or two grapes.
一人は1粒 もう一人は2粒差し出しています
08:57
You can see Honey, very good market economist,
見極め上手なハニーは
09:00
goes with the guy who gives more.
ぶどう2粒をくれる人を選びました
09:02
She could teach our financial advisers a few things or two.
ハニーから学べることはありそうです
09:05
So not just Honey,
ハニーに限らず
09:07
most of the monkeys went with guys who had more.
大半の猿は より多くてより美味しいものを
09:09
Most of the monkeys went with guys who had better food.
持っている人を選びました
09:12
When we introduced sales, we saw the monkeys paid attention to that.
猿は商品に注目をして
09:14
They really cared about their monkey token dollar.
トークンに関心をよせました
09:17
The more surprising thing was that when we collaborated with economists
驚いたのは 経済学者と共に
09:20
to actually look at the monkeys' data using economic tools,
経済的指針で猿のデータを見てみると
09:23
they basically matched, not just qualitatively,
人間がしていることと同じことが
09:26
but quantitatively with what we saw
質的にも量的にも
09:29
humans doing in a real market.
一致したことです
09:31
So much so that, if you saw the monkeys' numbers,
数値を見ただけでは
09:33
you couldn't tell whether they came from a monkey or a human in the same market.
猿なのか人間なのか区別がつかないほどです
09:35
And what we'd really thought we'd done
少なくとも
09:38
is like we'd actually introduced something
猿と私たちには
09:40
that, at least for the monkeys and us,
本物のお金のように使えるものを
09:42
works like a real financial currency.
導入できたと感じました
09:44
Question is: do the monkeys start messing up in the same ways we do?
問題は 猿も人間同様に間違いをするのかということです
09:46
Well, we already saw anecdotally a couple of signs that they might.
その可能性はいくつかありました
09:49
One thing we never saw in the monkey marketplace
猿の経済界で見かけなかったのは
09:52
was any evidence of saving --
人間のように
09:54
you know, just like our own species.
貯金をしないことです
09:56
The monkeys entered the market, spent their entire budget
コインを使い果たし
09:58
and then went back to everyone else.
帰って行きました
10:00
The other thing we also spontaneously saw,
また同時に見かけたのは
10:02
embarrassingly enough,
恥ずかしいことに
10:04
is spontaneous evidence of larceny.
盗みを働くのです
10:06
The monkeys would rip-off the tokens at every available opportunity --
機会さえあれば人間からトークンを
10:08
from each other, often from us --
だまし取ろうとしました
10:11
you know, things we didn't necessarily think we were introducing,
教えたつもりはないのに
10:13
but things we spontaneously saw.
盗みを身につけていました
10:15
So we said, this looks bad.
そこで 人間同様に
10:17
Can we actually see if the monkeys
猿も愚かなことをするのか
10:19
are doing exactly the same dumb things as humans do?
確かめることにしたのです
10:21
One possibility is just kind of let
猿の経済界を放っておけば
10:24
the monkey financial system play out,
数年後には人間に
10:26
you know, see if they start calling us for bailouts in a few years.
経済援助を求めてくるかもしれませんが
10:28
We were a little impatient so we wanted
そんなに待っていられないので
10:30
to sort of speed things up a bit.
時間を短縮するために
10:32
So we said, let's actually give the monkeys
経済的な難局に
10:34
the same kinds of problems
直面したとき
10:36
that humans tend to get wrong
人間が間違いやすい問題を
10:38
in certain kinds of economic challenges,
猿にも
10:40
or certain kinds of economic experiments.
与えてみることにしました
10:42
And so, since the best way to see how people go wrong
人がいかに間違いを犯すのかを確かめるには
10:44
is to actually do it yourself,
自分でやってみるのが一番ですから
10:47
I'm going to give you guys a quick experiment
直感を見るために
10:49
to sort of watch your own financial intuitions in action.
実験をしてみましょう
10:51
So imagine that right now
皆さんに
10:53
I handed each and every one of you
1000ドルずつ
10:55
a thousand U.S. dollars -- so 10 crisp hundred dollar bills.
渡したとします
10:57
Take these, put it in your wallet
そのお金は
11:00
and spend a second thinking about what you're going to do with it.
もう皆さんのものですから
11:02
Because it's yours now; you can buy whatever you want.
募金でも何でも
11:04
Donate it, take it, and so on.
好きなように使えます
11:06
Sounds great, but you get one more choice to earn a little bit more money.
もうちょっと儲かる選択肢があったとします
11:08
And here's your choice: you can either be risky,
一つめの選択肢はリスクを伴います
11:11
in which case I'm going to flip one of these monkey tokens.
私がコインを投げて表が出たら
11:14
If it comes up heads, you're going to get a thousand dollars more.
もう1000ドルプラス
11:16
If it comes up tails, you get nothing.
裏が出たら何もなし
11:18
So it's a chance to get more, but it's pretty risky.
増える確率はありますが 高リスクです
11:20
Your other option is a bit safe. Your just going to get some money for sure.
もう一つの選択肢は 安全志向
11:23
I'm just going to give you 500 bucks.
金額は500ドルですが
11:26
You can stick it in your wallet and use it immediately.
確実にもらえるとしたら
11:28
So see what your intuition is here.
どちらを選びますか
11:31
Most people actually go with the play-it-safe option.
大半の人は安全な方を選びます
11:33
Most people say, why should I be risky when I can get 1,500 dollars for sure?
1500ドルが確実に手に入るなら 賭ける必要はないと言うのです
11:36
This seems like a good bet. I'm going to go with that.
慎重な選択と言えますね
11:39
You might say, eh, that's not really irrational.
人はリスクを負うのが嫌なため
11:41
People are a little risk-averse. So what?
合理的だと思うかもしれませんが
11:43
Well, the "so what?" comes when start thinking
同じ問題の
11:45
about the same problem
状況を変えた場合
11:47
set up just a little bit differently.
どうなるか見てみましょう
11:49
So now imagine that I give each and every one of you
皆さんに2000ドルを
11:51
2,000 dollars -- 20 crisp hundred dollar bills.
渡したと想像してください
11:53
Now you can buy double to stuff you were going to get before.
先ほどの2倍も
11:56
Think about how you'd feel sticking it in your wallet.
好きなものが買えます
11:58
And now imagine that I have you make another choice
ここで選択です
12:00
But this time, it's a little bit worse.
先ほどとは違って
12:02
Now, you're going to be deciding how you're going to lose money,
どのようにお金を失うかを考えてもらいます
12:04
but you're going to get the same choice.
選択肢は同じ
12:07
You can either take a risky loss --
リスクを伴う選択肢は
12:09
so I'll flip a coin. If it comes up heads, you're going to actually lose a lot.
表が出たら1000ドル失いますが
12:11
If it comes up tails, you lose nothing, you're fine, get to keep the whole thing --
裏が出たら何も失わずに済みます
12:14
or you could play it safe, which means you have to reach back into your wallet
リスクをかけたくなければ
12:17
and give me five of those $100 bills, for certain.
私に500ドルを渡すだけ
12:20
And I'm seeing a lot of furrowed brows out there.
眉にしわを寄せる人が見えますね
12:23
So maybe you're having the same intuitions
きっと皆さんも
12:26
as the subjects that were actually tested in this,
この実験の対象者と同様に
12:28
which is when presented with these options,
この選択肢を与えられると
12:30
people don't choose to play it safe.
安全な方は選ばないのかもしれません
12:32
They actually tend to go a little risky.
人はリスクをかける傾向にあるのです
12:34
The reason this is irrational is that we've given people in both situations
これが合理的でないのは どちらの状況も
12:36
the same choice.
選択肢が同じだったからです
12:39
It's a 50/50 shot of a thousand or 2,000,
1000ドルか2000ドルのどちらかになる選択肢と
12:41
or just 1,500 dollars with certainty.
1500ドルと決まった選択肢
12:44
But people's intuitions about how much risk to take
でも 伴うリスクに関わる直感は
12:46
varies depending on where they started with.
立たされた状況によって異なります
12:49
So what's going on?
どういうことでしょうか
12:51
Well, it turns out that this seems to be the result
これは心理的な面から生まれる
12:53
of at least two biases that we have at the psychological level.
少なくとも二つの先入観が関係しています
12:55
One is that we have a really hard time thinking in absolute terms.
まず 絶対数で考える難しさです
12:58
You really have to do work to figure out,
1000ドルか2000ドルの選択肢と
13:01
well, one option's a thousand, 2,000;
1500ドルの選択肢を
13:03
one is 1,500.
天秤にかけなくてはいけません
13:05
Instead, we find it very easy to think in very relative terms
でも選択肢が変わり
13:07
as options change from one time to another.
相対的に考えるのは簡単です
13:10
So we think of things as, "Oh, I'm going to get more," or "Oh, I'm going to get less."
もっともらえる とか 失う額は少ない という具合です
13:13
This is all well and good, except that
これはいいのですが
13:16
changes in different directions
捉え方を変えることで
13:18
actually effect whether or not we think
選択肢の妥当性の
13:20
options are good or not.
見極めに影響します
13:22
And this leads to the second bias,
これは二つめの傾向につながり
13:24
which economists have called loss aversion.
経済学者は損失回避と呼んでいます
13:26
The idea is that we really hate it when things go into the red.
赤字になることを嫌うという意味です
13:28
We really hate it when we have to lose out on some money.
人は損失を嫌うため
13:31
And this means that sometimes we'll actually
損失を避けようと
13:33
switch our preferences to avoid this.
することがあります
13:35
What you saw in that last scenario is that
最後のシナリオで見たのは
13:37
subjects get risky
対象者はリスクをかけます
13:39
because they want the small shot that there won't be any loss.
何も失いたくないからです
13:41
That means when we're in a risk mindset --
これは我々が
13:44
excuse me, when we're in a loss mindset,
損失の覚悟があるとき
13:46
we actually become more risky,
非常に厄介になり得るのですが
13:48
which can actually be really worrying.
リスクを負うことが多くなります
13:50
These kinds of things play out in lots of bad ways in humans.
始末の悪い様々な状況を作り出すものです
13:52
They're why stock investors hold onto losing stocks longer --
株投資家が株を売らないがために損失を出すのは
13:55
because they're evaluating them in relative terms.
相対的に考えているからです
13:58
They're why people in the housing market refused to sell their house --
住宅市場の人たちが不動産を売り渋ったのは
14:00
because they don't want to sell at a loss.
損を承知で売りたくなかったからです
14:02
The question we were interested in
猿も同じ傾向を示すのか
14:04
is whether the monkeys show the same biases.
私たちは興味がありました
14:06
If we set up those same scenarios in our little monkey market,
猿の市場でも同じ状況をつくりだしたら
14:08
would they do the same thing as people?
人間と同じことをするでしょうか
14:11
And so this is what we did, we gave the monkeys choices
そこで私たちは猿に選択肢を与え
14:13
between guys who were safe -- they did the same thing every time --
常に同じことをする安全な人と
14:15
or guys who were risky --
50%の確率で違う事をする
14:18
they did things differently half the time.
リスク型の人を用意しました
14:20
And then we gave them options that were bonuses --
そして初めのシナリオのように
14:22
like you guys did in the first scenario --
ボーナスがもらえるようにしました
14:24
so they actually have a chance more,
儲かるチャンスでもあり
14:26
or pieces where they were experiencing losses --
失う可能性も出てきます
14:28
they actually thought they were going to get more than they really got.
実際よりも儲けたと思うのです
14:31
And so this is what this looks like.
このような感じです
14:33
We introduced the monkeys to two new monkey salesmen.
新しい販売員を紹介します
14:35
The guy on the left and right both start with one piece of grape,
どちらも持っているのは ぶどう1粒
14:37
so it looks pretty good.
見た目はいいですが
14:39
But they're going to give the monkeys bonuses.
ボーナスが出てきます
14:41
The guy on the left is a safe bonus.
左の人はおまけをくれるので
14:43
All the time, he adds one, to give the monkeys two.
合計2粒のぶどうがもらえます
14:45
The guy on the right is actually a risky bonus.
右の人はリスク型で
14:48
Sometimes the monkeys get no bonus -- so this is a bonus of zero.
何もくれない時がありますが
14:50
Sometimes the monkeys get two extra.
時々2粒もらえるため
14:53
For a big bonus, now they get three.
合計3粒のときがあります
14:56
But this is the same choice you guys just faced.
これは皆さんが直面したものと同じ
14:58
Do the monkeys actually want to play it safe
猿はリスクを回避して
15:00
and then go with the guy who's going to do the same thing on every trial,
毎回おまけをくれる人を選ぶのか
15:03
or do they want to be risky
それとも
15:05
and try to get a risky, but big, bonus,
何ももらえない時を覚悟して
15:07
but risk the possibility of getting no bonus.
大きなボーナスを得ようとするでしょうか
15:09
People here played it safe.
人間は安全な方を選びました
15:11
Turns out, the monkeys play it safe too.
結果は猿も同じでした
15:13
Qualitatively and quantitatively,
質的にも量的にも
15:15
they choose exactly the same way as people,
猿は人間と同じ―
15:17
when tested in the same thing.
判断を下しました
15:19
You might say, well, maybe the monkeys just don't like risk.
猿の損失との向き合い方を
15:21
Maybe we should see how they do with losses.
明らかにするために
15:23
And so we ran a second version of this.
別の実験を行いました
15:25
Now, the monkeys meet two guys
ここでは 何もくれない
15:27
who aren't giving them bonuses;
2人の人に会います
15:29
they're actually giving them less than they expect.
ぶどうの数が多いので
15:31
So they look like they're starting out with a big amount.
たくさんもらえる印象を与えます
15:33
These are three grapes; the monkey's really psyched for this.
3粒のぶどうに猿は大喜び
15:35
But now they learn these guys are going to give them less than they expect.
でも3粒はもらえないことがわかります
15:37
They guy on the left is a safe loss.
左の人は安全型で
15:40
Every single time, he's going to take one of these away
毎度 ぶどう1粒を取り上げて
15:42
and give the monkeys just two.
猿には2粒だけ渡します
15:45
the guy on the right is the risky loss.
右の人はリスク型で
15:47
Sometimes he gives no loss, so the monkeys are really psyched,
3粒くれることもあるため 猿は喜びますが
15:49
but sometimes he actually gives a big loss,
時々大きな損をする羽目になり
15:52
taking away two to give the monkeys only one.
1粒しかくれません
15:54
And so what do the monkeys do?
猿はどうしたでしょうか
15:56
Again, same choice; they can play it safe
安全型は
15:58
for always getting two grapes every single time,
毎度2粒もらえます
16:00
or they can take a risky bet and choose between one and three.
リスク型は3粒の時と1粒の時が混在します
16:03
The remarkable thing to us is that, when you give monkeys this choice,
私たちが驚いたのは 猿にこの選択をさせたとき
16:06
they do the same irrational thing that people do.
人間と同様に非合理的な選択をすることです
16:09
They actually become more risky
実験を どう始めるかによって
16:11
depending on how the experimenters started.
猿はリスク型を選ぶのです
16:13
This is crazy because it suggests that the monkeys too
猿も物事を相対的に
16:16
are evaluating things in relative terms
見ていることを示唆しており
16:18
and actually treating losses differently than they treat gains.
損失と儲けは同じ方法では扱っていません
16:20
So what does all of this mean?
これはどういうことでしょうか
16:23
Well, what we've shown is that, first of all,
第一に 猿に対して
16:25
we can actually give the monkeys a financial currency,
金融価値のあるお金を与えると
16:27
and they do very similar things with it.
人間と似たことをします
16:29
They do some of the smart things we do,
賢い行動もしますが
16:31
some of the kind of not so nice things we do,
盗みなどの
16:33
like steal it and so on.
好ましくないことをしたり
16:35
But they also do some of the irrational things we do.
非合理的なこともするのです
16:37
They systematically get things wrong
猿は人間と同様に
16:39
and in the same ways that we do.
体系的な失敗をします
16:41
This is the first take-home message of the Talk,
これがまず第一に示したい点です
16:43
which is that if you saw the beginning of this and you thought,
猿の金融アドバイザーを雇おうと
16:45
oh, I'm totally going to go home and hire a capuchin monkey financial adviser.
考えた方がいると思いますが
16:47
They're way cuter than the one at ... you know --
猿はかわいいけれど
16:49
Don't do that; they're probably going to be just as dumb
人間の金融アドバイザー同様に
16:51
as the human one you already have.
愚かですから お勧めしません
16:53
So, you know, a little bad -- Sorry, sorry, sorry.
ごめんなさい
16:56
A little bad for monkey investors.
言い方が悪かったわ
16:58
But of course, you know, the reason you're laughing is bad for humans too.
皆さんが笑うのも 人間の弱点を知っているからですよね
17:00
Because we've answered the question we started out with.
初めの質問で答えたからわかりますね
17:03
We wanted to know where these kinds of errors came from.
このような間違いは どこから始まるのでしょうか
17:06
And we started with the hope that maybe we can
私たちの願いは
17:08
sort of tweak our financial institutions,
金融制度や技術に
17:10
tweak our technologies to make ourselves better.
ひねりを入れて向上させることでした
17:12
But what we've learn is that these biases might be a deeper part of us than that.
でもわかったのは このような傾向はもっと深い部分から発生していることです
17:15
In fact, they might be due to the very nature
人間が進化してきた中に
17:18
of our evolutionary history.
理由が見つけられる可能性もあります
17:20
You know, maybe it's not just humans
愚かな面が見られるのは
17:22
at the right side of this chain that's duncey.
人間だけなのではなく
17:24
Maybe it's sort of duncey all the way back.
大昔から猿にも見られたのかもしれません
17:26
And this, if we believe the capuchin monkey results,
猿の実験結果を信用するとしたら
17:28
means that these duncey strategies
この愚かな策略は
17:31
might be 35 million years old.
3500万年も続いているのかもしれません
17:33
That's a long time for a strategy
この古くからある策略は
17:35
to potentially get changed around -- really, really old.
ずっと変わらないままなのです
17:37
What do we know about other old strategies like this?
他にはどのようなものがあるでしょうか
17:40
Well, one thing we know is that they tend to be really hard to overcome.
愚かな策略を克服するのは大変なのです
17:42
You know, think of our evolutionary predilection
人間は進化するうちに
17:45
for eating sweet things, fatty things like cheesecake.
甘いものや脂肪分の多いものを好むようになりました
17:47
You can't just shut that off.
美味しさを知っているので
17:50
You can't just look at the dessert cart as say, "No, no, no. That looks disgusting to me."
デザートを見たときに まずそうとは思わず
17:52
We're just built differently.
体にはプラスだと
17:55
We're going to perceive it as a good thing to go after.
思うようになっています
17:57
My guess is that the same thing is going to be true
経済的な決断に関しても
17:59
when humans are perceiving
同じことが起こるというのが
18:01
different financial decisions.
私の推測です
18:03
When you're watching your stocks plummet into the red,
株が下落したり
18:05
when you're watching your house price go down,
不動産価値が下がるとき
18:07
you're not going to be able to see that
進化的な意味で
18:09
in anything but old evolutionary terms.
解釈してしまいます
18:11
This means that the biases
投資家を失敗に招いたり
18:13
that lead investors to do badly,
差し押さえをつくり出す先入観を
18:15
that lead to the foreclosure crisis
乗り越えるのは
18:17
are going to be really hard to overcome.
非常に難しいことを指しています
18:19
So that's the bad news. The question is: is there any good news?
これが悲しい現実ですが
18:21
I'm supposed to be up here telling you the good news.
喜ばしいことも必要ですね
18:23
Well, the good news, I think,
肯定的側面は
18:25
is what I started with at the beginning of the Talk,
冒頭で触れたように
18:27
which is that humans are not only smart;
人間は賢いだけではなく
18:29
we're really inspirationally smart
生物界の中でも
18:31
to the rest of the animals in the biological kingdom.
感動するほどに
18:33
We're so good at overcoming our biological limitations --
賢いことです
18:36
you know, I flew over here in an airplane.
羽をバタバタさせなくても
18:39
I didn't have to try to flap my wings.
ここまで飛行機で来れましたし
18:41
I'm wearing contact lenses now so that I can see all of you.
今しているように コンタクトを使用すれば
18:43
I don't have to rely on my own near-sightedness.
近視でも皆さんがちゃんと見えます
18:46
We actually have all of these cases
このように人間は
18:49
where we overcome our biological limitations
生まれもった力の限界を
18:51
through technology and other means, seemingly pretty easily.
技術などを使って容易に乗り越えています
18:54
But we have to recognize that we have those limitations.
でも限界があることを認識しなければいけません
18:57
And here's the rub.
厄介なことです
19:00
It was Camus who once said that, "Man is the only species
作家のカミュは言いました
19:02
who refuses to be what he really is."
“人間は 本来の姿でいることを拒む唯一の種だ”
19:04
But the irony is that
限界を知らない限り
19:07
it might only be in recognizing our limitations
限界を乗り越えることは
19:09
that we can really actually overcome them.
無理かもしれないのが皮肉ですが
19:11
The hope is that you all will think about your limitations,
克服できない限界として考えるのではなく
19:13
not necessarily as unovercomable,
限界を認識して 受け入れて
19:16
but to recognize them, accept them
デザイン界に答えを
19:19
and then use the world of design to actually figure them out.
見つけ出せる希望を抱けます
19:21
That might be the only way that we will really be able
これこそ人間の可能性を最大限にして
19:24
to achieve our own human potential
立派な種と名乗るための
19:27
and really be the noble species we hope to all be.
唯一の方法かもしれません
19:29
Thank you.
ありがとう
19:32
(Applause)
(拍手)
19:34
Translator:Takako Sato
Reviewer:Rinko Kawakami

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Laurie Santos - Cognitive psychologist
Laurie Santos studies primate psychology and monkeynomics -- testing problems in human psychology on primates, who (not so surprisingly) have many of the same predictable irrationalities we do.

Why you should listen

Laurie Santos runs the Comparative Cognition Laboratory (CapLab) at Yale, where she and collaborators across departments (from psychology to primatology to neurobiology) explore the evolutionary origins of the human mind by studying lemurs, capuchin monkeys and other primates. The twist: Santos looks not only for positive humanlike traits, like tool-using and altruism, but irrational ones, like biased decisionmaking.

In elegant, carefully constructed experiments, Santos and CapLab have studied how primates understand and categorize objects in the physical world -- for instance, that monkeys understand an object is still whole even when part of it is obscured. Going deeper, their experiments also search for clues that primates possess a theory of mind -- an ability to think about what other people think.

Most recently, the lab has been looking at behaviors that were once the province mainly of novelists: jealousy, frustration, judgment of others' intentions, poor economic choices. In one experiment, Santos and her team taught monkeys to use a form of money, tradeable for food. When certain foods became cheaper, monkeys would, like humans, overbuy. As we humans search for clues to our own irrational behaviors, Santos' research suggests that the source of our genius for bad decisions might be our monkey brains.

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