TED2013
Eric Berlow and Sean Gourley: Mapping ideas worth spreading
Eric Berlow en Sean Gourley: Ontdek die uitleg van waardevolle idees
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Hoe lyk 24 000 idees? Ekoloog Eric Berlow en fisikus Sean Gourley pas algoritmes op die hele argief van TEDx Talks toe en neem ons op ’n prikkelende visuele toer om te wys hoe idees globaal verbind is.
Eric Berlow - Ecologist
TED Senior Fellow Eric Berlow studies ecology and networks, exposing the interconnectedness of our ecosystems with climate change, government, corporations and more. Full bioSean Gourley - Physicist and military theorist
Sean Gourley, trained as a physicist, has turned his scientific mind to analyzing data about a messier topic: modern war and conflict. He is a TED Fellow. Full bio
TED Senior Fellow Eric Berlow studies ecology and networks, exposing the interconnectedness of our ecosystems with climate change, government, corporations and more. Full bioSean Gourley - Physicist and military theorist
Sean Gourley, trained as a physicist, has turned his scientific mind to analyzing data about a messier topic: modern war and conflict. He is a TED Fellow. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Eric Berlow: I'm an ecologist, and Sean's a physicist,
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Eric Berlow: Ek's ’n ekoloog
en Sean is ’n fisikus
en Sean is ’n fisikus
00:15
and we both study complex networks.
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en ons bestudeer komplekse netwerke.
00:17
And we met a couple years ago when we discovered
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Toe ons ontmoet het, het ons ontdek
00:19
that we had both given a short TED Talk
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dat ons albei al ’n kort TED Talk
00:21
about the ecology of war,
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oor die ekologie van oorlog gegee het.
00:23
and we realized that we were connected
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Die idees wat ons gemeen het,
00:25
by the ideas we shared before we ever met.
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het ons verbind,
voor ons mekaar geken het.
voor ons mekaar geken het.
00:28
And then we thought, you know, there are thousands
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Toe dink ons: Daar is duisende praatjies,
00:29
of other talks out there, especially TEDx Talks,
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veral TEDx Talks,
00:31
that are popping up all over the world.
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wat oral oor die wêreld opduik.
00:34
How are they connected,
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Hoe is hulle gekoppel
00:34
and what does that global conversation look like?
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en hoe lyk die globale gesprek?
00:36
So Sean's going to tell you a little bit about how we did that.
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Sean sal vertel hoe ons dit aangepak het.
00:39
Sean Gourley: Exactly. So we took 24,000 TEDx Talks
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Sean Gourley: Presies.
So ons het 24 000 TEDx Talks
So ons het 24 000 TEDx Talks
00:43
from around the world, 147 different countries,
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oor die hele wêreld gevat, 147 lande,
00:46
and we took these talks and we wanted to find
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en ons was op soek na
die onderliggende wiskundige strukture
00:48
the mathematical structures that underly
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van die idees agter die praatjies.
00:50
the ideas behind them.
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00:52
And we wanted to do that so we could see how
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Ons wou sien hoe
00:53
they connected with each other.
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die praatjies gekoppel is.
00:55
And so, of course, if you're going to do this kind of stuff,
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Natuurlik, om so iets te doen,
00:57
you need a lot of data.
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benodig jy baie data.
00:58
So the data that you've got is a great thing called YouTube,
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Die data is ’n wonderlike ding
genaamd YouTube,
genaamd YouTube,
01:02
and we can go down and basically pull
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waarvanaf ons basies
01:03
all the open information from YouTube,
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al die oop informasie kan trek:
01:06
all the comments, all the views, who's watching it,
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Wie kyk, hoeveel van hulle kyk,
01:08
where are they watching it, what are they saying in the comments.
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waar kyk hulle, wat sê hulle
in die kommentare.
in die kommentare.
01:11
But we can also pull up, using speech-to-text translation,
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Maar ons kan ook
met spraak-tot-teks vertaling
met spraak-tot-teks vertaling
01:14
we can pull the entire transcript,
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die hele transkrip kry --
01:16
and that works even for people with kind of funny accents like myself.
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selfs vir mense soos ek
met snaakse aksente.
met snaakse aksente.
01:19
So we can take their transcript
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So ons vat hulle transkrip
01:21
and actually do some pretty cool things.
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en doen ’n paar kief dinge.
01:23
We can take natural language processing algorithms
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Ons kan natuurliketaal-
verwerkingsalgoritmes neem
verwerkingsalgoritmes neem
01:25
to kind of read through with a computer, line by line,
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en met ’n rekenaar, reël vir rëel, lees
01:28
extracting key concepts from this.
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om sleutelkonsepte uit te haal.
01:30
And we take those key concepts and they sort of form
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Die sleutelkonsepte vorm dan soortvan
01:33
this mathematical structure of an idea.
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die wiskundige struktuur van ’n idee.
01:36
And we call that the meme-ome.
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Ons noem dit die meemoom.
01:38
And the meme-ome, you know, quite simply,
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Die meemoom is eenvoudig
01:40
is the mathematics that underlies an idea,
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die wiskunde onderliggend aan ’n idee,
01:43
and we can do some pretty interesting analysis with it,
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waarmee ons
interessante ontleding doen,
interessante ontleding doen,
01:45
which I want to share with you now.
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wat ek nou met julle wil deel.
01:47
So each idea has its own meme-ome,
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So elke idee het sy eie meemoom
01:49
and each idea is unique with that,
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en elke idee is uniek daarin,
01:51
but of course, ideas, they borrow from each other,
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maar idees leen natuurlik by mekaar,
01:53
they kind of steal sometimes,
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hulle steel soms ’n bietjie
01:54
and they certainly build on each other,
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en hulle bou beslis op mekaar.
01:56
and we can go through mathematically
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Ons kan wiskundig ondersoek instel
01:58
and take the meme-ome from one talk
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deur die meemoom van een praatjie
02:00
and compare it to the meme-ome from every other talk,
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te vergelyk met dié
van elke ander praatjie.
van elke ander praatjie.
02:02
and if there's a similarity between the two of them,
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As daar ooreenkomste tussen twee is,
02:04
we can create a link and represent that as a graph,
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kan ons ’n skakel skep
en dit as ’n grafiek voorstel,
en dit as ’n grafiek voorstel,
02:07
just like Eric and I are connected.
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net soos ek en Eric verbonde is.
02:10
So that's theory, that's great.
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So dis die teorie, lieflik.
02:11
Let's see how it works in actual practice.
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Kom ons kyk hoe die toepassing werk.
02:14
So what we've got here now is the global footprint
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Hier is die globale voetspoor
02:17
of all the TEDx Talks over the last four years
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van al die TEDx Talks
oor die laaste vier jaar
oor die laaste vier jaar
02:19
exploding out around the world
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soos hulle oral ontplof,
02:20
from New York all the way down to little old New Zealand in the corner.
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van New York al die pad
tot in ou Nieu-Seeland in die hoek.
tot in ou Nieu-Seeland in die hoek.
02:24
And what we did on this is we analyzed the top 25 percent of these,
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Hier het ons die top 25 persent ontleed
02:28
and we started to see where the connections occurred,
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en begin sien
waar die verbindings voorkom,
waar die verbindings voorkom,
02:30
where they connected with each other.
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waar hulle met mekaar skakel.
02:32
Cameron Russell talking about image and beauty
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Cameron Russell
oor beeld en skoonheid,
oor beeld en skoonheid,
02:33
connected over into Europe.
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oorkant in Europa gekoppel.
02:35
We've got a bigger conversation about Israel and Palestine
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’n Groter gesprek
oor Israel en Palestina,
oor Israel en Palestina,
02:37
radiating outwards from the Middle East.
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wat vanuit die Midde-Ooste uitstraal.
02:40
And we've got something a little broader
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Iets breër, soos groot data,
02:41
like big data with a truly global footprint
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het ’n waarlik globale voetspoor --
02:43
reminiscent of a conversation
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dit laat mens dink aan ’n gesprek
02:45
that is happening everywhere.
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wat oral plaasvind.
02:47
So from this, we kind of run up against the limits
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Hier tref ons egter reeds die perke
02:50
of what we can actually do with a geographic projection,
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van wat geografiese projeksie kan doen,
maar gelukkig kan ons met rekenaars
02:52
but luckily, computer technology allows us to go out
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in ’n meerdimensionele ruimte werk.
02:54
into multidimensional space.
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02:56
So we can take in our network projection
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Ons bring die netwerkprojeksie in
en pas ’n fisiese model
se berekeninge toe:
se berekeninge toe:
02:58
and apply a physics engine to this,
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02:59
and the similar talks kind of smash together,
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Soortgelyke praatjies bondel op
03:01
and the different ones fly apart,
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en verskillendes skiet uitmekaar
03:03
and what we're left with is something quite beautiful.
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en op die ou end het ons iets mooi.
03:05
EB: So I want to just point out here that every node is a talk,
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EB: Ek wil net uitwys
dat elke nodus ’n praatjie is.
dat elke nodus ’n praatjie is.
03:08
they're linked if they share similar ideas,
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Hulle is gekoppel as hulle
soortgelyke idees gemeen het
soortgelyke idees gemeen het
03:11
and that comes from a machine reading
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en dis op ’n masjienlesing
03:13
of entire talk transcripts,
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van volledige praatjie-afskrifte gebaseer.
03:15
and then all these topics that pop out,
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Al die onderwerpe wat dan opkom,
kom nie van merkers
of sleutelwoorde af nie.
of sleutelwoorde af nie.
03:17
they're not from tags and keywords.
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03:19
They come from the network structure
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Dis op ’n netwerkstruktuur
03:21
of interconnected ideas. Keep going.
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van onderling verbonde idees gebaseer.
Gaan voort.
Gaan voort.
03:23
SG: Absolutely. So I got a little quick on that,
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SG: Absoluut. Ek was bietjie vinnig,
03:25
but he's going to slow me down.
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maar hy sal my in toom hou.
03:26
We've got education connected to storytelling
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Ons het opvoeding gebonde aan vertelkuns,
03:28
triangulated next to social media.
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langs sosiale media getrianguleer.
03:30
You've got, of course, the human brain right next to healthcare,
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Die menslike brein is
reg langs gesondheidsorg,
reg langs gesondheidsorg,
03:33
which you might expect,
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soos mens sou vermoed,
03:34
but also you've got video games, which is sort of adjacent,
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maar daar's ook videospeletjies,
half aangrensend,
half aangrensend,
03:36
as those two spaces interface with each other.
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soos die twee ruimtes met mekaar koppel.
03:39
But I want to take you into one cluster
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Ek wil julle in een tros invat
03:41
that's particularly important to me, and that's the environment.
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wat vir my besonders belangrik is:
die omgewing.
die omgewing.
03:43
And I want to kind of zoom in on that
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Ek wil daar inzoem
03:45
and see if we can get a little more resolution.
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sodat ons nog resolusie kan kry.
03:47
So as we go in here, what we start to see,
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Ons begin sien,
weer met die fisiese model
se berekeninge toegepas,
se berekeninge toegepas,
03:50
apply the physics engine again,
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03:51
we see what's one conversation
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dat een gesprek
03:53
is actually composed of many smaller ones.
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deur baie kleiner gesprekke opgemaak word.
03:55
The structure starts to emerge
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Die struktuur kom te voorskyn:
03:57
where we see a kind of fractal behavior
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Ons sien ’n soort fraktaalgedrag
03:59
of the words and the language that we use
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van die woorde wat ons gebruik
om dít wat vir ons
belangrik is te beskryf,
belangrik is te beskryf,
04:01
to describe the things that are important to us
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04:03
all around this world.
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oor die hele wêreld.
04:04
So you've got food economy and local food at the top,
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So jy't voedselekonomie
en plaaslike kos bo,
en plaaslike kos bo,
04:06
you've got greenhouse gases, solar and nuclear waste.
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kweekhuisgas, sonkrag en kernafval.
04:09
What you're getting is a range of smaller conversations,
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Mens kry ’n reeks kleiner gesprekke,
04:12
each connected to each other through the ideas
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verbonde aan mekaar deur die idees
en die taal wat hulle gemeen het,
04:14
and the language they share,
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04:15
creating a broader concept of the environment.
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wat sodoende ’n breër begrip
van die omgewing skep.
van die omgewing skep.
04:18
And of course, from here, we can go
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Nou kan ons natuurlik
04:19
and zoom in and see, well, what are young people looking at?
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inzoem en vra: Waarna kyk jong mense?
04:23
And they're looking at energy technology and nuclear fusion.
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Energietegnologie en kernfusie.
04:25
This is their kind of resonance
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Dit spreek tot hulle
04:27
for the conversation around the environment.
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binne die gesprek rondom die omgewing.
04:29
If we split along gender lines,
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As ons volgens geslag opdeel,
04:31
we can see females resonating heavily
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kan ons sien wat tot vroue spreek:
04:33
with food economy, but also out there in hope and optimism.
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voedselekonomie,
maar ook hoop en optimisme.
maar ook hoop en optimisme.
04:37
And so there's a lot of exciting stuff we can do here,
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Daar's baie opwindende dinge
om hier te doen
om hier te doen
04:39
and I'll throw to Eric for the next part.
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en nou oor aan Eric.
04:41
EB: Yeah, I mean, just to point out here,
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EB: Ja, ek wys net hier uit:
04:43
you cannot get this kind of perspective
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Mens kan hierdie tipe perspektief
04:44
from a simple tag search on YouTube.
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nie deur ’n enkele merkersoektog
op YouTube kry nie.
op YouTube kry nie.
04:48
Let's now zoom back out to the entire global conversation
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Kom ons zoem uit
tot die hele globale gesprek
tot die hele globale gesprek
04:52
out of environment, and look at all the talks together.
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en kyk na al die praatjies saam.
04:54
Now often, when we're faced with this amount of content,
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Dikwels, wanneer ons so baie inhoud het,
04:57
we do a couple of things to simplify it.
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vereenvoudig ons dit.
05:00
We might just say, well,
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Ons vra dalk:
05:01
what are the most popular talks out there?
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Watter praatjies is die gewildste?
05:04
And a few rise to the surface.
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’n Paar kom op.
05:05
There's a talk about gratitude.
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Daar's een oor dankbaarheid.
05:07
There's another one about personal health and nutrition.
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Daar's nog een oor
persoonlike gesondheid en voeding.
persoonlike gesondheid en voeding.
05:10
And of course, there's got to be one about porn, right?
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En daar móét een oor porno wees, of hoe?
05:13
And so then we might say, well, gratitude, that was last year.
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Dan sê ons dalk, wel,
dankbaarheid was laas jaar.
dankbaarheid was laas jaar.
05:17
What's trending now? What's the popular talk now?
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Watse praatjie is nóú "in"?
05:19
And we can see that the new, emerging, top trending topic
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En ons sien die nuwe
opkomende "in"-onderwerp
opkomende "in"-onderwerp
05:22
is about digital privacy.
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is oor digitale privaatheid.
05:25
So this is great. It simplifies things.
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Lieflik. Dis eenvoudiger.
05:27
But there's so much creative content
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Maar daar's só baie kreatiewe inhoud
05:29
that's just buried at the bottom.
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wat nog onder begrawe lê.
05:31
And I hate that. How do we bubble stuff up to the surface
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Ek verpes dit. Hoe borrel ons
daai goed boontoe,
daai goed boontoe,
05:34
that's maybe really creative and interesting?
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die moontlik kreatiewe
en interessante dinge?
en interessante dinge?
05:36
Well, we can go back to the network structure of ideas
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Ons kan terugkeer
na die netwerkstruktuur van idees toe
na die netwerkstruktuur van idees toe
05:39
to do that.
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om dit te doen.
05:41
Remember, it's that network structure
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Onthou, dis daai netwerkstruktuur
05:43
that is creating these emergent topics,
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wat hierdie opkomende temas skep,
05:45
and let's say we could take two of them,
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so ons kan twee vat,
05:47
like cities and genetics, and say, well, are there any talks
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soos stede en genetika, en vra:
Is daar kreatiewe oorbrugging
van dié twee uiteenlopende dissiplines?
van dié twee uiteenlopende dissiplines?
05:50
that creatively bridge these two really different disciplines.
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05:52
And that's -- Essentially, this kind of creative remix
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Sulke kreatiewe hervermenging is, in wese,
05:54
is one of the hallmarks of innovation.
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een van die kenmerke van innovasie.
05:56
Well here's one by Jessica Green
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Hier's een deur Jessica Green
05:58
about the microbial ecology of buildings.
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oor die mikrobiese ekologie van geboue.
06:00
It's literally defining a new field.
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Dit omskryf letterlik ’n nuwe vakgebied.
06:02
And we could go back to those topics and say, well,
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Ons kan terugkeer
na daai temas toe en vra:
na daai temas toe en vra:
06:04
what talks are central to those conversations?
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Watter praatjies is sentraal
tot daai gesprekke?
tot daai gesprekke?
06:07
In the cities cluster, one of the most central
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In die stede-tros is
een van die mees sentrales
een van die mees sentrales
06:09
was one by Mitch Joachim about ecological cities,
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deur Mitch Joachim oor ekologiese stede
06:13
and in the genetics cluster,
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en in die genetika-tros
06:15
we have a talk about synthetic biology by Craig Venter.
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is ’n praatjie oor sintetiese biologie
deur Craig Venter.
deur Craig Venter.
06:18
These are talks that are linking many talks within their discipline.
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Hierdie praatjies verbind
baie ander binne-in hulle dissipline.
baie ander binne-in hulle dissipline.
06:21
We could go the other direction and say, well,
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In die ander rigting kan ons vra:
06:23
what are talks that are broadly synthesizing
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Watter praatjies is ’n breë samevatting
06:25
a lot of different kinds of fields.
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van vele verskillende gebiede?
06:27
We used a measure of ecological diversity to get this.
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Hier het ons ’n ekologiese-
diversiteitsmaat gebruik.
diversiteitsmaat gebruik.
06:29
Like, a talk by Steven Pinker on the history of violence,
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Byvoorbeeld, Steven Pinker
oor die geskiedenis van geweld:
oor die geskiedenis van geweld:
06:32
very synthetic.
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baie samevattend.
06:33
And then, of course, there are talks that are so unique
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Daar is natuurlik praatjies
wat só uniek is
wat só uniek is
06:35
they're kind of out in the stratosphere, in their own special place,
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dat hulle in die stratosfeer dryf,
op hulle eie spesiale plek.
op hulle eie spesiale plek.
06:38
and we call that the Colleen Flanagan index.
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Ons noem dit die
Colleen-Flanagan-indeks. (Gelag)
Colleen-Flanagan-indeks. (Gelag)
06:41
And if you don't know Colleen, she's an artist,
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Wie haar nie ken nie: Sy's ’n kunstenaar.
06:44
and I asked her, "Well, what's it like out there
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Ek't haar gevra: "Hoe ervaar jy
06:45
in the stratosphere of our idea space?"
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die stratosfeer van jou ideeruimte?"
06:47
And apparently it smells like bacon.
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Blykbaar ruik dit soos spek. (Gelag)
06:50
I wouldn't know.
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Ek sou nie weet nie.
06:52
So we're using these network motifs
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So ons gebruik hierdie netwerkmotiewe
06:54
to find talks that are unique,
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om praatjies te vind wat uniek is,
06:56
ones that are creatively synthesizing a lot of different fields,
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of kreatief baie vakgebiede saamvat,
06:58
ones that are central to their topic,
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of sentraal tot hulle tema is,
07:00
and ones that are really creatively bridging disparate fields.
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of uiteenlopende gebiede kreatief oorbrug.
07:03
Okay? We never would have found those with our obsession
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Ons sou hulle nooit met ons obsessie
07:05
with what's trending now.
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oor wat tans "in" is gekry het nie.
07:08
And all of this comes from the architecture of complexity,
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En dis alles op die argitektuur
van kompleksiteit gebaseer,
van kompleksiteit gebaseer,
07:11
or the patterns of how things are connected.
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of die patrone van hoe dinge gekoppel is.
07:14
SG: So that's exactly right.
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SG: Presies.
07:15
We've got ourselves in a world
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Ons bevind onsself in ’n wêreld
07:18
that's massively complex,
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wat uiters kompleks is
07:20
and we've been using algorithms to kind of filter it down
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en ons gebruik algoritmes
om dit te filtreer
om dit te filtreer
07:23
so we can navigate through it.
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sodat ons daardeur kan navigeer.
07:24
And those algorithms, whilst being kind of useful,
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En daardie algoritmes is wel behulpsaam,
07:27
are also very, very narrow, and we can do better than that,
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maar ook geweldig nou,
en ons kan beter doen,
en ons kan beter doen,
deur te besef dat hulle kompleksiteit
nie willekeurig is nie.
nie willekeurig is nie.
07:30
because we can realize that their complexity is not random.
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07:33
It has mathematical structure,
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Dit besit wiskundige struktuur
07:35
and we can use that mathematical structure
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wat ons kan gebruik
07:36
to go and explore things like the world of ideas
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om dinge soos die ideewêreld te verken,
07:39
to see what's being said, to see what's not being said,
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om te sien wat gesê of nié gesê word nie
07:42
and to be a little bit more human
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en om ’n bietjie meer mens
07:43
and, hopefully, a little smarter.
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en, hopelik, ’n bietjie slimmer te wees.
07:45
Thank you.
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Dankie.
07:46
(Applause)
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(Applous)
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS
Eric Berlow - EcologistTED Senior Fellow Eric Berlow studies ecology and networks, exposing the interconnectedness of our ecosystems with climate change, government, corporations and more.
Why you should listen
Eric Berlow is an ecologist and network scientist who specializes in not specializing. A TED Senior Fellow, Berlow is recognized for his research on food webs and ecological networks and for creative approaches to complex problems. He was the founding director of the University of California's first environmental science center inside Yosemite National Park, where he continues to develop data-driven approaches to managing natural ecosystems.
In 2012 Berlow founded Vibrant Data Labs, which builds tools to use data for social good. Berlow's current projects range from helping spark an egalitarian personal data economy to protecting endangered amphibians in Yosemite to crowd-sourcing novel insights about human creativity. Berlow holds a Ph.D. from Oregon State University in marine ecology.
Eric Berlow | Speaker | TED.com
Sean Gourley - Physicist and military theorist
Sean Gourley, trained as a physicist, has turned his scientific mind to analyzing data about a messier topic: modern war and conflict. He is a TED Fellow.
Why you should listen
Sean Gourley's twin passions are physics (working on nanoscale blue-light lasers and self-assembled quantum nanowires) and politics (he once ran for a national elected office back home in New Zealand).
A Rhodes scholar, he's spent the past five years working at Oxford on complex adaptive systems and collective intelligent systems -- basically, using data to understand the nature of human conflict. As he puts it, "This research has taken me all over the world from the Pentagon, to the House of Lords, the United Nations and most recently to Iraq". Originally from New Zealand, he now lives in San Francisco, where he is the co-founder and CTO of Quid which is building a global intelligence platform. He's a 2009 TED Fellow.
In December 2009, Gourley and his team's research was published in the scientific journal Nature. He is co-founder and CTO of Quid.
Sean Gourley | Speaker | TED.com