TED2019
Rob Reid: How synthetic biology could wipe out humanity -- and how we can stop it
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The world-changing promise of synthetic biology and gene editing has a dark side. In this far-seeing talk, author and entrepreneur Rob Reid reviews the risks of a world where more and more people have access to the tools and tech needed to create a doomsday bug that could wipe out humanity -- and suggests that it's time to take this danger seriously.
Rob Reid - Author, entrepreneur
Rob Reid is a humor author and the founder of the company that created the music subscription service Rhapsody. Full bio
Rob Reid is a humor author and the founder of the company that created the music subscription service Rhapsody. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
So, there's about
seven and a half billion of us.
seven and a half billion of us.
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The World Health Organization tells us
that 300 million of us are depressed,
that 300 million of us are depressed,
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and about 800,000 people
take their lives every year.
take their lives every year.
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A tiny subset of them choose
a profoundly nihilistic route,
a profoundly nihilistic route,
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which is they die in the act of killing
as many people as possible.
as many people as possible.
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These are some famous recent examples.
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And here's a less famous one.
It happened about nine weeks ago.
It happened about nine weeks ago.
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If you don't remember it,
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it's because there's
a lot of this going on.
a lot of this going on.
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Wikipedia just last year
counted 323 mass shootings
counted 323 mass shootings
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in my home country, the United States.
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Not all of those shooters were suicidal,
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not all of them were maximizing
their death tolls,
their death tolls,
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but many, many were.
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An important question becomes:
What limits do these people have?
What limits do these people have?
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Take the Vegas shooter.
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He slaughtered 58 people.
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Did he stop there because he'd had enough?
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No, and we know this because
he shot and injured another 422 people
he shot and injured another 422 people
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who he surely would have
preferred to kill.
preferred to kill.
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We have no reason to think
he would have stopped at 4,200.
he would have stopped at 4,200.
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In fact, with somebody this nihilistic,
he may well have gladly killed us all.
he may well have gladly killed us all.
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We don't know.
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What we do know is this:
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when suicidal murderers really go all in,
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technology is the force multiplier.
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Here's an example.
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Several years back, there was a rash
of 10 mass school attacks in China
of 10 mass school attacks in China
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carried out with things
like knives and hammers and cleavers,
like knives and hammers and cleavers,
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because guns are really hard to get there.
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By macabre coincidence,
this last attack occurred
this last attack occurred
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just hours before the massacre
in Newtown, Connecticut.
in Newtown, Connecticut.
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But that one American attack killed
roughly the same number of victims
roughly the same number of victims
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as the 10 Chinese attacks combined.
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So we can fairly say,
knife: terrible; gun: way worse.
knife: terrible; gun: way worse.
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And airplane: massively worse,
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as pilot Andreas Lubitz showed
when he forced 149 people
when he forced 149 people
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to join him in his suicide,
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smashing a plane into the French Alps.
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And there are other examples of this.
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And I'm afraid there are far more deadly
weapons in our near future than airplanes,
weapons in our near future than airplanes,
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ones not made of metal.
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So let's consider the apocalyptic
dynamics that will ensue
dynamics that will ensue
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if suicidal mass murder hitches a ride
on a rapidly advancing field
on a rapidly advancing field
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that for the most part holds
boundless promise for society.
boundless promise for society.
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Somewhere out there in the world,
there's a tiny group of people
there's a tiny group of people
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who would attempt, however ineptly,
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to kill us all if they
could just figure out how.
could just figure out how.
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The Vegas shooter may or may not
have been one of them,
have been one of them,
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but with seven and a half billion of us,
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this is a nonzero population.
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There's plenty of suicidal
nihilists out there.
nihilists out there.
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We've already seen that.
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There's people with severe mood disorders
that they can't even control.
that they can't even control.
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There are people who have just suffered
deranging traumas, etc. etc.
deranging traumas, etc. etc.
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As for the corollary group,
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its size was simply zero forever
until the Cold War,
until the Cold War,
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when suddenly, the leaders
of two global alliances
of two global alliances
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attained the ability to blow up the world.
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The number of people
with actual doomsday buttons
with actual doomsday buttons
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has stayed fairly stable since then.
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But I'm afraid it's about to grow,
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and not just to three.
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This is going off the charts.
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I mean, it's going to look
like a tech business plan.
like a tech business plan.
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(Laughter)
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And the reason is,
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we're in the era
of exponential technologies,
of exponential technologies,
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which routinely take
eternal impossibilities
eternal impossibilities
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and make them the actual superpowers
of one or two living geniuses
of one or two living geniuses
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and -- this is the big part --
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then diffuse those powers
to more or less everybody.
to more or less everybody.
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Now, here's a benign example.
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If you wanted to play checkers
with a computer in 1952,
with a computer in 1952,
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you literally had to be that guy,
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then commandeer one of the world's
19 copies of that computer,
19 copies of that computer,
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then used your Nobel-adjacent brain
to teach it checkers.
to teach it checkers.
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That was the bar.
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Today, you just need to know someone
who knows someone who owns a telephone,
who knows someone who owns a telephone,
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because computing
is an exponential technology.
is an exponential technology.
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So is synthetic biology,
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which I'll now refer to as "synbio."
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And in 2011, a couple of researchers
did something every bit as ingenious
did something every bit as ingenious
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and unprecedented as the checkers trick
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with H5N1 flu.
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This is a strain that kills
up to 60 percent of the people it infects,
up to 60 percent of the people it infects,
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more than Ebola.
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But it is so uncontagious
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that it's killed fewer
than 50 people since 2015.
than 50 people since 2015.
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So these researchers edited H5N1's genome
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and made it every bit as deadly,
but also wildly contagious.
but also wildly contagious.
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The news arm of one of the world's
top two scientific journals
top two scientific journals
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said if this thing got out,
it would likely cause a pandemic
it would likely cause a pandemic
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with perhaps millions of deaths.
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And Dr. Paul Keim said
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he could not think of an organism
as scary as this,
as scary as this,
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which is the last thing
I personally want to hear
I personally want to hear
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from the Chairman of the National
Science Advisory Board on Biosecurity.
Science Advisory Board on Biosecurity.
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And by the way, Dr. Keim also said this --
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["I don't think anthrax
is scary at all compared to this."]
is scary at all compared to this."]
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And he's also one of these.
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[Anthrax expert] (Laughter)
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Now, the good news about the 2011 biohack
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is that the people who did it
didn't mean us any harm.
didn't mean us any harm.
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They're virologists.
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They believed they were advancing science.
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The bad news is that technology
does not freeze in place,
does not freeze in place,
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and over the next few decades,
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their feat will become trivially easy.
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In fact, it's already way easier,
because as we learned yesterday morning,
because as we learned yesterday morning,
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just two years after they did their work,
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the CRISPR system was harnessed
for genome editing.
for genome editing.
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This was a radical breakthrough
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that makes gene editing
massively easier --
massively easier --
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so easy that CRISPR
is now taught in high schools.
is now taught in high schools.
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And this stuff is moving
quicker than computing.
quicker than computing.
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That slow, stodgy white line up there?
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That's Moore's law.
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That shows us how quickly
computing is getting cheaper.
computing is getting cheaper.
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That steep, crazy-fun green line,
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that shows us how quickly
genetic sequencing is getting cheaper.
genetic sequencing is getting cheaper.
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Now, gene editing
and synthesis and sequencing,
and synthesis and sequencing,
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they're different disciplines,
but they're tightly related.
but they're tightly related.
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And they're all moving
in these headlong rates.
in these headlong rates.
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And the keys to the kingdom
are these tiny, tiny data files.
are these tiny, tiny data files.
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That is an excerpt of H5N1's genome.
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The whole thing can fit
on just a few pages.
on just a few pages.
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And yeah, don't worry, you can Google this
as soon as you get home.
as soon as you get home.
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It's all over the internet, right?
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And the part that made it contagious
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could well fit on a single Post-it note.
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And once a genius makes a data file,
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any idiot can copy it,
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distribute it worldwide
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or print it.
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And I don't just mean print it on this,
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but soon enough, on this.
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So let's imagine a scenario.
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Let's say it's 2026,
to pick an arbitrary year,
to pick an arbitrary year,
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and a brilliant virologist,
hoping to advance science
hoping to advance science
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and better understand pandemics,
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designs a new bug.
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It's as contagious as chicken pox,
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it's as deadly as Ebola,
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and it incubates for months and months
before causing an outbreak,
before causing an outbreak,
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so the whole world can be infected
before the first sign of trouble.
before the first sign of trouble.
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Then, her university gets hacked.
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And of course,
this is not science fiction.
this is not science fiction.
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In fact, just one recent US indictment
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documents the hacking
of over 300 universities.
of over 300 universities.
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So that file with the bug's genome on it
spreads to the internet's dark corners.
spreads to the internet's dark corners.
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And once a file is out there,
it never comes back --
it never comes back --
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just ask anybody who runs
a movie studio or a music label.
a movie studio or a music label.
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So now maybe in 2026,
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it would take a true genius
like our virologist
like our virologist
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to make the actual living critter,
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but 15 years later,
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it may just take a DNA printer
you can find at any high school.
you can find at any high school.
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And if not?
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Give it a couple of decades.
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So, a quick aside:
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Remember this slide here?
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Turn your attention to these two words.
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If somebody tries this
and is only 0.1 percent effective,
and is only 0.1 percent effective,
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eight million people die.
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That's 2,500 9/11s.
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Civilization would survive,
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but it would be permanently disfigured.
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So this means we need
to be concerned about anybody
to be concerned about anybody
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who has the faintest shot on goal,
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not just geniuses.
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So today, there's a tiny
handful of geniuses
handful of geniuses
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who probably could make a doomsday bug
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that's .1-percent effective
and maybe even a little bit more.
and maybe even a little bit more.
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They tend to be stable and successful
and so not part of this group.
and so not part of this group.
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So I guess I'm sorta kinda
barely OK-ish with that.
barely OK-ish with that.
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But what about after technology improves
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and diffuses
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and thousands of life science
grad students are enabled?
grad students are enabled?
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Are every single one of them
going to be perfectly stable?
going to be perfectly stable?
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Or how about a few years after that,
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where every stress-ridden
premed is fully enabled?
premed is fully enabled?
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At some point in that time frame,
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these circles are going to intersect,
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because we're now starting to talk about
hundreds of thousands of people
hundreds of thousands of people
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throughout the world.
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And they recently included that guy
who dressed up like the Joker
who dressed up like the Joker
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and shot 12 people to death
at a Batman premiere.
at a Batman premiere.
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That was a neuroscience PhD student
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with an NIH grant.
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OK, plot twist:
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I think we can actually survive this one
if we start focusing on it now.
if we start focusing on it now.
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And I say this, having spent
countless hours
countless hours
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interviewing global leaders in synbio
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and also researching their work
for science podcasts I create.
for science podcasts I create.
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I have come to fear their work, in case
I haven't gotten that out there yet --
I haven't gotten that out there yet --
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(Laughter)
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but more than that,
to revere its potential.
to revere its potential.
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This stuff will cure cancer,
heal our environment
heal our environment
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and stop our cruel treatment
of other creatures.
of other creatures.
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So how do we get all this without,
you know, annihilating ourselves?
you know, annihilating ourselves?
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First thing: like it or not,
synbio is here,
synbio is here,
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so let's embrace the technology.
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If we do a tech ban,
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that would only hand
the wheel to bad actors.
the wheel to bad actors.
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Unlike nuclear programs,
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biology can be practiced invisibly.
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Massive Soviet cheating
on bioweapons treaties
on bioweapons treaties
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made that very clear, as does every
illegal drug lab in the world.
illegal drug lab in the world.
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Secondly, enlist the experts.
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Let's sign them up and make more of them.
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For every million and one
bioengineers we have,
bioengineers we have,
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at least a million of them
are going to be on our side.
are going to be on our side.
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I mean, Al Capone
would be on our side in this one.
would be on our side in this one.
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The bar to being a good guy
is just so low.
is just so low.
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And massive numerical
advantages do matter,
advantages do matter,
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even when a single bad guy
can inflict grievous harm,
can inflict grievous harm,
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because among many other things,
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they allow us to exploit
the hell out of this:
the hell out of this:
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we have years and hopefully decades
to prepare and prevent.
to prepare and prevent.
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The first person to try something awful --
and there will be somebody --
and there will be somebody --
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may not even be born yet.
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Next, this needs to be an effort
that spans society,
that spans society,
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and all of you need to be a part of it,
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because we cannot ask
a tiny group of experts
a tiny group of experts
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to be responsible for both containing
and exploiting synthetic biology,
and exploiting synthetic biology,
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because we already tried that
with the financial system,
with the financial system,
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and our stewards became
massively corrupted
massively corrupted
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as they figured out
how they could cut corners,
how they could cut corners,
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inflict massive, massive risks
on the rest of us
on the rest of us
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and privatize the gains,
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becoming repulsively wealthy
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while they stuck us
with the $22 trillion bill.
with the $22 trillion bill.
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And more recently --
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(Applause)
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Are you the ones who have gotten
the thank-you letters?
the thank-you letters?
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I'm still waiting for mine.
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I just figured they were
too busy to be grateful.
too busy to be grateful.
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And much more recently,
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online privacy started looming
as a huge issue,
as a huge issue,
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and we basically outsourced it.
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And once again:
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privatized gains, socialized losses.
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Is anybody else sick of this pattern?
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(Applause)
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So we need a more inclusive way
to safeguard our prosperity,
to safeguard our prosperity,
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our privacy
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and soon, our lives.
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So how do we do all of this?
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Well, when bodies fight pathogens,
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they use ingenious immune systems,
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which are very complex and multilayered.
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Why don't we build one of these
for the whole damn ecosystem?
for the whole damn ecosystem?
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There's a year of TED Talks that could
be given on this first critical layer.
be given on this first critical layer.
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So these are just a couple
of many great ideas that are out there.
of many great ideas that are out there.
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Some R and D muscle
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could take the very primitive
pathogen sensors that we currently have
pathogen sensors that we currently have
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and put them on a very steep
price performance curve
price performance curve
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that would quickly become ingenious
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and networked
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and gradually as widespread
as smoke detectors and even smartphones.
as smoke detectors and even smartphones.
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On a very related note:
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vaccines have all kinds of problems
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when it comes to manufacturing
and distribution,
and distribution,
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and once they're made, they can't adapt
to new threats or mutations.
to new threats or mutations.
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We need an agile biomanufacturing base
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extending into every single pharmacy
and maybe even our homes.
and maybe even our homes.
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Printer technology for vaccines
and medicines is within reach
and medicines is within reach
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if we prioritize it.
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Next, mental health.
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Many people who commit
suicidal mass murder
suicidal mass murder
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suffer from crippling,
treatment-resistant depression or PTSD.
treatment-resistant depression or PTSD.
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We need noble researchers
like Rick Doblin working on this,
like Rick Doblin working on this,
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but we also need the selfish jerks
who are way more numerous
who are way more numerous
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to appreciate the fact that acute
suffering will soon endanger all of us,
suffering will soon endanger all of us,
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not just those afflicted.
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Those jerks will then
join us and Al Capone
join us and Al Capone
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in fighting this condition.
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Third, each and every one of us
can be and should be a white blood cell
can be and should be a white blood cell
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in this immune system.
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Suicidal mass murderers
can be despicable, yes,
can be despicable, yes,
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but they're also terribly
broken and sad people,
broken and sad people,
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and those of us who aren't
need to do what we can
need to do what we can
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to make sure nobody goes unloved.
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(Applause)
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Next, we need to make
fighting these dangers
fighting these dangers
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core to the discipline
of synthetic biology.
of synthetic biology.
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There are companies out there
that at least claim
that at least claim
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they let their engineers
spend 20 percent of their time
spend 20 percent of their time
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doing whatever they want.
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What if those who hire bioengineers
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and become them
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give 20 percent of their time
to building defenses for the common good?
to building defenses for the common good?
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Not a bad idea, right?
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(Applause)
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Then, finally: this won't be any fun.
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But we need to let our minds
go to some very, very dark places,
go to some very, very dark places,
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and thank you for letting me
take you there this evening.
take you there this evening.
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We survived the Cold War
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because every one of us understood
and respected the danger,
and respected the danger,
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in part, because we had spent decades
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telling ourselves terrifying ghost stories
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with names like "Dr. Strangelove"
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15:49
and "War Games."
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This is no time to remain calm.
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This is one of those rare times
when it's incredibly productive
when it's incredibly productive
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to freak the hell out --
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(Laughter)
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to come up with some ghost stories
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and use our fear as fuel
to fight this danger.
to fight this danger.
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Because, all these
terrible scenarios I've painted --
terrible scenarios I've painted --
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they are not destiny.
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They're optional.
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The danger is still kind of distant.
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And that means it will only befall us
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if we allow it to.
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Let's not.
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Thank you very much for listening.
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(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Rob Reid - Author, entrepreneurRob Reid is a humor author and the founder of the company that created the music subscription service Rhapsody.
Why you should listen
Rob Reid is an author and a serial entrepreneur. He founded the company that created the Rhapsody music website, and his latest book, Year Zero, was published in July 2013. In it, aliens seek to erase the ruinous fines on their vast collections of pirated American music by destroying the Earth. Parts of it are made up. The audiobook version will be read by John Hodgman.
On the TED Blog, read more on the numbers behind Copyright Math >>
Rob Reid | Speaker | TED.com