TEDxMidAtlantic
Emma Belcher: 3 questions we should ask about nuclear weapons
Filmed:
Readability: 4.4
1,178,036 views
There are more than 10,000 nuclear weapons in existence today, each one capable of causing immense destruction. Why don't we talk about this threat as much as some other major issues? In this practical talk, nuclear security expert Emma Belcher shares three questions you can ask your elected officials to gain a better understanding of nuclear weapons and the measures we need to stay safe.
Emma Belcher - Nuclear security expert
Emma Belcher develops and implements strategy for reducing the threat posed by nuclear weapons. Full bio
Emma Belcher develops and implements strategy for reducing the threat posed by nuclear weapons. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
So you know when
you're doubled over in pain
you're doubled over in pain
0
1496
2895
00:16
and you're wondering, is it your appendix
1
4415
2198
00:18
or maybe you ate something funny?
2
6637
1716
00:21
Well, when that happens to me,
I call my friend Sasha --
I call my friend Sasha --
3
9472
3713
00:25
Sasha is a doctor --
4
13209
1167
00:26
and I say, "Should I rush
to the nearest emergency room
to the nearest emergency room
5
14400
2696
00:29
in a panic?
6
17120
1371
00:30
Or am I OK to relax and just wait it out?"
7
18515
3298
00:33
Yes, I am that annoying friend.
8
21837
3063
00:39
But in September 2017,
9
27011
2405
00:41
friends of mine were suddenly calling me
10
29440
3286
00:44
for my professional opinion.
11
32750
1555
00:47
And no, I'm not a doctor,
12
35868
1762
00:49
but they were asking me
questions of life and death.
questions of life and death.
13
37654
2555
00:53
So what was going on in September of 2017?
14
41444
3075
00:57
Well, North Korea was suddenly
and scarily all over the news.
and scarily all over the news.
15
45370
4436
01:02
Kim Jong-un had tested missiles
16
50752
2245
01:05
potentially capable of hitting
major US cities,
major US cities,
17
53021
3922
01:08
and President Trump had responded
with tweets of "fire and fury."
with tweets of "fire and fury."
18
56967
3895
01:14
And there was real concern
that tensions would escalate
that tensions would escalate
19
62097
4064
01:18
to a potential war
20
66185
1476
01:19
or even nuclear weapons use.
21
67685
2308
01:23
So what my friends
were calling and asking was:
were calling and asking was:
22
71067
2754
01:25
Should they panic or were the OK to relax?
23
73845
3452
01:30
But really, they were asking me
a fundamental question:
a fundamental question:
24
78615
4198
01:36
"Am I safe?"
25
84440
1619
01:40
While I was reassuring them that,
no, they didn't need to worry just yet,
no, they didn't need to worry just yet,
26
88396
4476
01:44
the irony of their question dawned on me.
27
92896
2119
01:48
What they hadn't really thought about
28
96094
2949
01:51
is that we've all been living
under a much larger cloud for decades --
under a much larger cloud for decades --
29
99067
3747
01:54
potentially a mushroom cloud --
30
102838
2126
01:56
without giving it much thought.
31
104988
1760
02:00
Now it's not surprising
that friends of mine
that friends of mine
32
108114
2080
02:02
and many others like them
don't know much about nuclear weapons
don't know much about nuclear weapons
33
110218
3031
02:05
and don't think about them.
34
113273
1540
02:06
After all, the end of the Cold War,
35
114837
2919
02:09
the United States and Russia,
tension abated,
tension abated,
36
117780
3831
02:13
we started dismantling nuclear weapons,
37
121635
1872
02:15
and they started to become
a relic of the past.
a relic of the past.
38
123531
3023
02:19
Generations didn't have to grow up
with the specter of nuclear war
with the specter of nuclear war
39
127177
3152
02:22
hanging over their heads.
40
130353
1205
02:25
And there other reasons people don't like
to think about nuclear weapons.
to think about nuclear weapons.
41
133367
3517
02:28
It's scary, overwhelming.
42
136908
2450
02:31
I get it.
43
139382
1343
02:32
Sometimes I wish I could have chosen
a cheerier field to study.
a cheerier field to study.
44
140749
3167
02:35
(Laughter)
45
143940
1046
02:37
Perhaps tax law would
have been more uplifting.
have been more uplifting.
46
145010
2230
02:39
(Laughter)
47
147264
1491
02:42
But in addition to that,
48
150557
2255
02:44
people have so many other things
to think about in their busy lives,
to think about in their busy lives,
49
152836
3388
02:48
and they'd much prefer to think
about something over which
about something over which
50
156248
2786
02:51
they feel they have
some semblance of control,
some semblance of control,
51
159058
2652
02:53
and they assume that other people,
smarter than they on this topic,
smarter than they on this topic,
52
161734
3539
02:57
are working away to keep us all safe.
53
165297
2429
03:01
And then, there are other reasons
people don't talk about this,
people don't talk about this,
54
169317
3341
03:04
and one is because we, as nuclear experts,
55
172682
2786
03:07
use a whole lot of convoluted
jargon and terminology
jargon and terminology
56
175492
3371
03:10
to talk about these issues:
57
178887
1595
03:13
CVID, ICBM, JCPOA.
58
181227
3607
03:17
It's really inaccessible
for a lot of people.
for a lot of people.
59
185782
3127
03:21
And, in reality, it actually sometimes
I think makes us numb
I think makes us numb
60
189678
3634
03:25
to what we're really talking about here.
61
193336
2278
03:28
And what we are really talking about here
62
196843
2651
03:31
is the fact that,
63
199518
1151
03:32
while we've made dramatic reductions
in the number of nuclear weapons
in the number of nuclear weapons
64
200693
3240
03:35
since the Cold War,
65
203957
1387
03:37
right now, there are almost 15,000
in the world today.
in the world today.
66
205368
5325
03:43
15,000.
67
211806
1657
03:47
The United States and Russia have
over 90 percent of these nuclear weapons.
over 90 percent of these nuclear weapons.
68
215709
4694
03:53
If you're wondering, these are
the countries that have the rest.
the countries that have the rest.
69
221034
3388
03:57
But they have far fewer,
70
225303
1771
03:59
ranging in the sort of
300-ish range and below.
300-ish range and below.
71
227098
3174
04:05
Adding to this situation is the fact
that we have new technologies
that we have new technologies
72
233112
3566
04:08
that potentially bring us new challenges.
73
236702
2452
04:11
Could you imagine, one day,
countries like ours and others
countries like ours and others
74
239791
5459
04:17
potentially ceding decisions
about a nuclear strike to a robot,
about a nuclear strike to a robot,
75
245274
4658
04:22
based on algorithms?
76
250688
2101
04:24
And what data do they use
to inform those algorithms?
to inform those algorithms?
77
252813
2619
04:28
This is pretty terrifying.
78
256438
1707
04:31
So adding to this are terrorism potential,
79
259098
4722
04:35
cyberattacks, miscalculation,
misunderstanding.
misunderstanding.
80
263844
2866
04:38
The list of nuclear nightmares
tends to grow longer by the day.
tends to grow longer by the day.
81
266734
3515
04:42
And there are a number
of former officials,
of former officials,
82
270273
2738
04:45
as well as experts,
83
273035
1739
04:46
who worry that right now,
we're in greater danger
we're in greater danger
84
274798
3253
04:50
than we were in various points
in the Cold War.
in the Cold War.
85
278075
3229
04:54
So this is scary.
86
282759
1438
04:56
What can we do?
87
284877
1302
04:58
Well, thankfully,
88
286958
1150
05:00
["Duck and Cover"]
89
288132
1166
05:01
we don't have to rely
on the advice from the 1950s.
on the advice from the 1950s.
90
289322
3373
05:04
(Laughter)
91
292719
1008
05:05
We can take some control,
92
293751
1985
05:07
and the way we do that
93
295760
1744
05:09
is by starting to ask
some fundamental questions
some fundamental questions
94
297528
3231
05:12
about the status quo
95
300783
2004
05:14
and whether we are happy
with the way it is.
with the way it is.
96
302811
2724
05:18
We need to begin asking
questions of ourselves
questions of ourselves
97
306529
2206
05:20
and of our elected officials,
98
308759
1744
05:22
and I'd like to share
three with you today.
three with you today.
99
310527
2263
05:26
The first one is,
100
314798
2198
05:29
"How much nuclear risk
are you willing to take or tolerate?"
are you willing to take or tolerate?"
101
317020
4079
05:34
Right now, nuclear policy
depends on deterrence theory.
depends on deterrence theory.
102
322805
3896
05:39
Developed in the 1950s,
103
327336
1722
05:41
the idea is that one
country's nuclear weapons
country's nuclear weapons
104
329082
2668
05:43
prevents another country
from using theirs.
from using theirs.
105
331774
2987
05:46
So you nuke me, I nuke you,
106
334785
3726
05:50
and we both lose.
107
338535
1293
05:52
So in a way, there's a stalemate.
108
340794
2680
05:55
No one uses their weapons,
and we're all safe.
and we're all safe.
109
343498
2530
05:59
But this theory has real questions.
110
347487
5199
06:04
There are experts
who challenge this theory
who challenge this theory
111
352710
2801
06:07
and wonder: Does it really work
this way in practice?
this way in practice?
112
355535
3127
06:11
It certainly doesn't allow
for mistakes or miscalculations.
for mistakes or miscalculations.
113
359516
4976
06:17
Now, I don't know about you,
114
365918
2050
06:19
but I feel pretty uncomfortable
gambling my future survival,
gambling my future survival,
115
367992
5118
06:25
yours, and our future generations',
116
373134
3525
06:28
on a theory that is questionable
117
376683
2619
06:32
and doesn't allow any room for a mistake.
118
380275
2431
06:36
It makes me even more uncomfortable
119
384560
1946
06:39
to be threatening the evaporation
120
387386
2858
06:42
of millions of people
on the other side of the Earth.
on the other side of the Earth.
121
390268
2531
06:46
Surely we can do better for ourselves,
122
394267
3112
06:49
drawing on our ingenuity
to solve complex problems,
to solve complex problems,
123
397403
3564
06:52
as we have in the past.
124
400991
2017
06:55
After all, this is a man-made,
125
403032
2673
06:57
human-made --
126
405729
1221
06:58
I shouldn't say "man,"
because women were involved --
because women were involved --
127
406974
2523
07:01
a human-made problem.
128
409521
1636
07:04
We have human solutions
that should be possible.
that should be possible.
129
412669
2988
07:09
So, next question: "Who do you think
should make nuclear decisions?"
should make nuclear decisions?"
130
417238
3800
07:14
Right now, in this democracy,
in the United States,
in the United States,
131
422221
4613
07:18
one person
132
426858
1777
07:21
gets to decide whether or not
to launch a nuclear strike.
to launch a nuclear strike.
133
429588
3452
07:26
They don't have to consult anybody.
134
434691
1905
07:30
So that's the president.
135
438108
1876
07:32
He or she can decide --
136
440742
2897
07:35
within a very limited amount of time,
137
443663
2135
07:37
under great pressure, potentially,
depending on the scenario,
depending on the scenario,
138
445822
3333
07:42
maybe based on a miscalculation
or a misunderstanding --
or a misunderstanding --
139
450204
3445
07:46
they can decide the fate
of millions of lives:
of millions of lives:
140
454197
2849
07:49
yours, mine, our community's.
141
457805
2670
07:54
And they can do this
and launch a nuclear strike,
and launch a nuclear strike,
142
462173
4130
07:58
potentially setting in motion
the annihilation of the human race.
the annihilation of the human race.
143
466327
4581
08:05
Wow.
144
473566
1150
08:08
This doesn't have to be
our reality, though, and in fact,
our reality, though, and in fact,
145
476392
3102
08:11
in a number of other countries
that have nuclear weapons, it's not,
that have nuclear weapons, it's not,
146
479518
3320
08:14
including countries
that are not democracies.
that are not democracies.
147
482862
2720
08:19
We created this system. We can change it.
148
487595
2246
08:22
And there's actually a movement
underway to do so.
underway to do so.
149
490690
2856
08:25
So this leads me to my third question:
150
493991
2819
08:28
"What do your elected officials
know about nuclear weapons,
know about nuclear weapons,
151
496834
3768
08:32
and what types of decisions
are they likely to take on your behalf?"
are they likely to take on your behalf?"
152
500626
3493
08:37
Well, Congress has
a very important role to play
a very important role to play
153
505416
3190
08:40
in oversight of and interrogating
US nuclear weapons policy.
US nuclear weapons policy.
154
508630
4270
08:45
They can decide what to fund,
what not to fund,
what not to fund,
155
513397
2596
08:48
and they represent you.
156
516017
1371
08:50
Now unfortunately,
since the end of the Cold War,
since the end of the Cold War,
157
518515
3009
08:53
we've seen a real decline
in the level of understanding,
in the level of understanding,
158
521548
3489
08:57
on Capitol Hill, about these issues.
159
525061
2626
08:59
While we are starting to see
some terrific new champions emerge,
some terrific new champions emerge,
160
527711
4048
09:03
the reality is that the general
lack of awareness
lack of awareness
161
531783
2849
09:06
is highly concerning,
162
534656
1572
09:08
given that these people need to make
critically important decisions.
critically important decisions.
163
536252
3872
09:14
To make matters worse,
164
542076
1151
09:15
the political partisanship
that currently grips Washington
that currently grips Washington
165
543251
3728
09:19
also affects this issue.
166
547003
1588
09:21
This wasn't always the case, though.
167
549814
1763
09:23
At the end of the Cold War,
members from both sides of the aisle
members from both sides of the aisle
168
551601
3245
09:26
had a really good understanding about
the nuclear challenges we were facing
the nuclear challenges we were facing
169
554870
4127
09:31
and worked together
on cooperative programs.
on cooperative programs.
170
559021
3032
09:34
They recognized
that nuclear risk reduction
that nuclear risk reduction
171
562847
3135
09:38
was far too important to allow it
to succumb to political partisanship.
to succumb to political partisanship.
172
566006
4190
09:43
They created programs
173
571350
1198
09:44
such as the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative
Threat Reduction Program,
Threat Reduction Program,
174
572572
3323
09:47
which sought to lock down and eliminate
175
575919
2519
09:50
vulnerable nuclear material
in the former Soviet Union.
in the former Soviet Union.
176
578462
2983
09:54
So we need to return to this era
of bipartisanship,
of bipartisanship,
177
582828
3960
09:58
mutual problem-solving
178
586812
2650
10:01
that's based on understanding
and awareness about the challenges we face
and awareness about the challenges we face
179
589486
3921
10:05
and the real nuclear dangers.
180
593431
1968
10:08
And that's where you come in.
181
596273
1830
10:10
Public pressure is important.
182
598469
1842
10:13
Leaders need a constituent base to act.
183
601018
3252
10:16
So create that constituent base,
184
604294
2430
10:18
by asking them some simple questions.
185
606748
2965
10:22
Ask them, "What do you know
about nuclear weapons?"
about nuclear weapons?"
186
610325
3506
10:25
"Do you have a nuclear expert
on your staff?
on your staff?
187
613855
2643
10:28
Or, if not, do you know
somebody you could refer to
somebody you could refer to
188
616522
3237
10:31
if you need to make
an important decision?"
an important decision?"
189
619783
2206
10:34
Start to find out what they believe
190
622713
2259
10:36
and whether it aligns
with your own views and values.
with your own views and values.
191
624996
2802
10:40
Ask them, "How would you choose
to spend US national treasure?
to spend US national treasure?
192
628450
4187
10:46
On a new nuclear arms race
193
634266
2103
10:48
or another national security priority,
194
636393
2208
10:50
such as cybersecurity or climate change?"
195
638625
3383
10:54
Ask them, "Are you willing
to put aside partisanship
to put aside partisanship
196
642032
3927
10:57
to address this existential threat
that affects my survival
that affects my survival
197
645983
4921
11:02
and your constituents' survival?"
198
650928
1715
11:06
Now, people will tell you nuclear policy
is far too difficult to understand
is far too difficult to understand
199
654305
4635
11:10
and complexed and nuanced
for the general public to understand,
for the general public to understand,
200
658964
3880
11:14
let alone debate.
201
662868
1595
11:16
After all, this is "national security."
202
664487
2596
11:19
There needs to be secrets.
203
667900
1491
11:22
Don't let that put you off.
204
670677
1904
11:24
We debate all sorts of issues
205
672605
1811
11:26
that are critically important
to our lives --
to our lives --
206
674440
2261
11:28
why should nuclear weapons
be any different?
be any different?
207
676725
2388
11:31
We debate health care,
education, the environment.
education, the environment.
208
679137
3016
11:34
Surely congressional oversight,
209
682177
3018
11:37
civic participation that are
such hallmarks of US democracy,
such hallmarks of US democracy,
210
685605
4010
11:41
surely they apply here.
211
689639
1951
11:44
After all, these are cases of life
and death that we're talking about.
and death that we're talking about.
212
692573
4349
11:50
And we won't all agree,
213
698021
2274
11:52
but whether or not you believe
nuclear weapons keep us safe
nuclear weapons keep us safe
214
700319
3674
11:56
or that nuclear weapons are a liability,
215
704017
3190
11:59
I urge you to put aside
partisan, ideological issues
partisan, ideological issues
216
707231
5484
12:04
and listen to each other.
217
712739
1956
12:08
So I'll tell you now what I didn't have
the guts to tell my friends at the time.
the guts to tell my friends at the time.
218
716254
4389
12:13
No, you're not safe --
219
721483
2254
12:16
not just because of North Korea.
220
724273
1715
12:18
But there is something
you can do about it.
you can do about it.
221
726798
2818
12:23
Demand that your elected representatives
222
731266
3477
12:26
can give you answers to your questions,
223
734767
3007
12:29
and answers that you can live with
224
737798
2667
12:32
and that billions of others
can live with too.
can live with too.
225
740489
2610
12:36
And if they can't,
226
744644
1281
12:37
stay on them until they can.
227
745949
2237
12:41
And if that doesn't work,
228
749284
1758
12:43
find others, who are able
to represent your views.
to represent your views.
229
751066
4543
12:48
Because by doing so, we can begin
to change the answer to the question
to change the answer to the question
230
756895
5443
12:54
"Am I safe?"
231
762362
1150
12:57
(Applause)
232
765111
3984
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Emma Belcher - Nuclear security expertEmma Belcher develops and implements strategy for reducing the threat posed by nuclear weapons.
Why you should listen
Emma Belcher is the Director of Nuclear Challenges at the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. In partnership with the MacArthur Foundation board of directors and president, she allocates roughly 20 million dollars in grants annually to organizations worldwide focused on nuclear policy. The MacArthur Foundation is the largest funder in the nuclear field. Prior to joining the MacArthur Foundation, Belcher published research on nuclear weapons at the Council on Foreign Relations as a Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow. She has also worked as an advisor in Australia’s Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet on national security and international affairs and as a public affairs officer at the Australian embassy in Washington, D.C.
Belcher is currently on the Advisor Board for N Square, a project of the New Venture Fund, which consists of a network of innovators working to end the nuclear threat. She was a fellow at the Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and was named an Emerging Leader by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Belcher has a PhD and master’s degree from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, and a bachelor of arts from University of Melbourne.
Emma Belcher | Speaker | TED.com