TEDSummit
Sam Harris: Can we build AI without losing control over it?
Sam Harris: Možemo li napraviti umjetnu inteligenciju bez da izgubimo kontrolu nad njom?
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Prestrašeni superintelignetnom umjetnom inteligencijom? Trebali bi biti, kaže neuroznanstvenik i filozof Sam Harris -- i to ne samo na neki teorijski način. Sagradit ćemo nadljudske strojeve, kaže Harris, a još se nismo primili ukoštac sa problemima vezanim uz stvaranje nečega što bi moglo postupati s nama onako kako mi postupamo s mravima.
Sam Harris - Neuroscientist, philosopher
Sam Harris's work focuses on how our growing understanding of ourselves and the world is changing our sense of how we should live. Full bio
Sam Harris's work focuses on how our growing understanding of ourselves and the world is changing our sense of how we should live. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
I'm going to talk
about a failure of intuition
about a failure of intuition
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Pričat ću vam
o neuspjehu intuicije
o neuspjehu intuicije
00:15
that many of us suffer from.
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koji pogađa brojne među nama.
00:17
It's really a failure
to detect a certain kind of danger.
to detect a certain kind of danger.
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To je zapravo neuspjeh
uočavanja određene vrste opasnosti.
uočavanja određene vrste opasnosti.
00:21
I'm going to describe a scenario
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Opisat ću scenarij
00:23
that I think is both terrifying
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za koji smatram kako je jednako zastrašujuć
00:26
and likely to occur,
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koliko i vjerojatan da se dogodi,
00:28
and that's not a good combination,
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a to nije dobra kombinacija,
00:30
as it turns out.
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kako se ispostavlja.
00:32
And yet rather than be scared,
most of you will feel
most of you will feel
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A ipak umjesto da budete prestrašeni,
većina će vas osjećati
većina će vas osjećati
00:34
that what I'm talking about
is kind of cool.
is kind of cool.
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kako je ono o čemu govorim
nekako fora.
nekako fora.
00:37
I'm going to describe
how the gains we make
how the gains we make
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Opisat ću kako bi nas
dobici koje stvaramo
dobici koje stvaramo
00:40
in artificial intelligence
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u umjetnoj inteligenciji (dalje: AI)
00:42
could ultimately destroy us.
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na kraju mogli uništiti.
00:43
And in fact, I think it's very difficult
to see how they won't destroy us
to see how they won't destroy us
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I zapravo, mislim ako je jako teško
vidjeti kako nas oni neće uništiti
vidjeti kako nas oni neće uništiti
00:47
or inspire us to destroy ourselves.
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ili nas nadahnuti da se sami uništimo.
00:49
And yet if you're anything like me,
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Pa ipak ako ste imalo poput mene,
00:51
you'll find that it's fun
to think about these things.
to think about these things.
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naći ćete kako je zabavno
razmišljati o ovim stvarima.
razmišljati o ovim stvarima.
00:53
And that response is part of the problem.
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A taj je odgovor dio problema.
00:57
OK? That response should worry you.
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Ok? Taj bi vas odgovor trebao brinuti.
00:59
And if I were to convince you in this talk
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A ako bih vas uvjeravao
ovim govorom
ovim govorom
01:02
that we were likely
to suffer a global famine,
to suffer a global famine,
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kako ćemo vjerojatno
doživjeti globalnu glad,
doživjeti globalnu glad,
01:06
either because of climate change
or some other catastrophe,
or some other catastrophe,
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bilo zbog klimatskih promjena
ili neke druge katastrofe,
ili neke druge katastrofe,
01:09
and that your grandchildren,
or their grandchildren,
or their grandchildren,
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te kako će vaši unuci,
ili njihovi unuci,
ili njihovi unuci,
01:12
are very likely to live like this,
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vrlo vjerojatno živjeti ovako,
01:15
you wouldn't think,
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ne biste mislili:
01:17
"Interesting.
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"Zanimljivo.
01:18
I like this TED Talk."
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Sviđa mi se ovaj TED govor."
01:21
Famine isn't fun.
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Glad nije zabavna.
01:23
Death by science fiction,
on the other hand, is fun,
on the other hand, is fun,
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Smrt znanstvenom fantastikom,
s druge strane, jest zabavna,
s druge strane, jest zabavna,
01:27
and one of the things that worries me most
about the development of AI at this point
about the development of AI at this point
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a jedna od stvari koje me najviše brinu
oko razvoja AI u ovom trenutku
oko razvoja AI u ovom trenutku
01:31
is that we seem unable to marshal
an appropriate emotional response
an appropriate emotional response
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je kako se činimo nesposobnim
stvoriti prikladan emotivni odgovor
stvoriti prikladan emotivni odgovor
01:35
to the dangers that lie ahead.
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na opasnosti pred kojima se nalazimo.
01:37
I am unable to marshal this response,
and I'm giving this talk.
and I'm giving this talk.
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Ja sam nesposoban stvorti taj odgovor,
a držim ovaj govor.
a držim ovaj govor.
01:42
It's as though we stand before two doors.
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Ovo je kao da stojimo
pred dvama vratima.
pred dvama vratima.
01:44
Behind door number one,
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Iza vrata broj jedan,
01:46
we stop making progress
in building intelligent machines.
in building intelligent machines.
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prestanemo stvarati napredak
u izgradnji inteligentnih strojeva.
u izgradnji inteligentnih strojeva.
01:49
Our computer hardware and software
just stops getting better for some reason.
just stops getting better for some reason.
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Hardver se i softver naših računala
samo iz nekog razloga prestane poboljšavati.
samo iz nekog razloga prestane poboljšavati.
01:53
Now take a moment
to consider why this might happen.
to consider why this might happen.
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Sad uzmite trenutak,
razmislite zašto bi se to moglo dogoditi.
razmislite zašto bi se to moglo dogoditi.
01:57
I mean, given how valuable
intelligence and automation are,
intelligence and automation are,
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MIslim, uzevši kako su vrijedne
inteligencija i automatizacija,
inteligencija i automatizacija,
02:00
we will continue to improve our technology
if we are at all able to.
if we are at all able to.
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nastavit ćemo unaprijeđivati tehnologiju
ako smo to ikako sposobni.
ako smo to ikako sposobni.
02:05
What could stop us from doing this?
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Što bi nas moglo zaustaviti u tome?
02:07
A full-scale nuclear war?
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Potpuni nuklearni rat?
02:11
A global pandemic?
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Globalna pandemija?
02:14
An asteroid impact?
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Udar asteroida?
02:17
Justin Bieber becoming
president of the United States?
president of the United States?
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Da Justin Bieber postane
predsjednik Sjedinjenih država?
predsjednik Sjedinjenih država?
02:20
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
02:24
The point is, something would have to
destroy civilization as we know it.
destroy civilization as we know it.
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Poanta je, nešto bi moralo
uništiti civilizaciju kakvu znamo.
uništiti civilizaciju kakvu znamo.
02:29
You have to imagine
how bad it would have to be
how bad it would have to be
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Morate zamisliti
kako bi loše to moralo biti
kako bi loše to moralo biti
02:33
to prevent us from making
improvements in our technology
improvements in our technology
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da nas spriječi od pravljenja
poboljšanja u našoj tehnologiji
poboljšanja u našoj tehnologiji
02:37
permanently,
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trajno,
02:38
generation after generation.
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generaciju za generacijom.
02:40
Almost by definition,
this is the worst thing
this is the worst thing
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Skoro po definiciji,
to je najgora stvar
to je najgora stvar
02:42
that's ever happened in human history.
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koja se ikad dogodila u ljudskoj povijesti.
02:44
So the only alternative,
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Dakle jedina alternativa,
02:45
and this is what lies
behind door number two,
behind door number two,
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a to je ono što leži
iza vrata broj dva,
iza vrata broj dva,
02:48
is that we continue
to improve our intelligent machines
to improve our intelligent machines
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je da nastavimo poboljšavati
naše inteligentne strojeve
naše inteligentne strojeve
02:51
year after year after year.
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godinu za godinom za godinom.
02:53
At a certain point, we will build
machines that are smarter than we are,
machines that are smarter than we are,
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U nekom trenutku, sagradit ćemo
strojeve koji su pametniji od nas,
strojeve koji su pametniji od nas,
02:58
and once we have machines
that are smarter than we are,
that are smarter than we are,
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a jednom kad imamo strojeve
koji su pametniji od nas,
koji su pametniji od nas,
03:00
they will begin to improve themselves.
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oni će početi poboljšavati sami sebe.
03:02
And then we risk what
the mathematician IJ Good called
the mathematician IJ Good called
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A tada risikiramo što je
matematičar I.J. Good nazvao
matematičar I.J. Good nazvao
03:05
an "intelligence explosion,"
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"eksplozijom inteligencije,"
03:07
that the process could get away from us.
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da bi nam se proces mogao izmaknuti.
03:10
Now, this is often caricatured,
as I have here,
as I have here,
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Sad, to je često karikirano,
kako imam ovdje,
kako imam ovdje,
03:12
as a fear that armies of malicious robots
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kao strah da će
vojske zloćudnih robota
vojske zloćudnih robota
03:16
will attack us.
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udariti na nas.
03:17
But that isn't the most likely scenario.
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Ali to nije najvjerojatniji scenarij.
03:20
It's not that our machines
will become spontaneously malevolent.
will become spontaneously malevolent.
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Nije da će naši strojevi
spontano postati zloćudnim.
spontano postati zloćudnim.
03:25
The concern is really
that we will build machines
that we will build machines
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Zapravo je briga
kako ćemo izraditi strojeve
kako ćemo izraditi strojeve
03:27
that are so much
more competent than we are
more competent than we are
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koji su toliko
sposobniji od nas
sposobniji od nas
03:29
that the slightest divergence
between their goals and our own
between their goals and our own
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da bi nas najmanje razmimoilaženje
između njihovih i naših ciljeva
između njihovih i naših ciljeva
03:33
could destroy us.
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moglo uništiti.
03:35
Just think about how we relate to ants.
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Samo pomislite kako se odnosimo prema mravima.
03:38
We don't hate them.
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Ne mrzimo ih.
03:40
We don't go out of our way to harm them.
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Ne silazimo sa svog puta
kako bismo im naudili.
kako bismo im naudili.
03:42
In fact, sometimes
we take pains not to harm them.
we take pains not to harm them.
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Zapravo, ponekad
se baš i trudimo kako im ne bismo naudili.
se baš i trudimo kako im ne bismo naudili.
03:44
We step over them on the sidewalk.
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Prekoračimo ih na pločniku.
03:46
But whenever their presence
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Ali kad god sje njihova prisutnost
03:48
seriously conflicts with one of our goals,
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ozbiljno sukobi s nekim od naših ciljeva,
03:51
let's say when constructing
a building like this one,
a building like this one,
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recimo kad dižemo
građevinu poput ove,
građevinu poput ove,
03:53
we annihilate them without a qualm.
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uništavamo ih bez pol muke.
03:56
The concern is that we will
one day build machines
one day build machines
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Briga je kako ćemo
jednog dana sagraditi strojeve
jednog dana sagraditi strojeve
03:59
that, whether they're conscious or not,
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koji, bili oni svjesni ili ne,
04:02
could treat us with similar disregard.
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bi se mogli odnositi spram nas
sa sličnim nehajem.
sa sličnim nehajem.
04:05
Now, I suspect this seems
far-fetched to many of you.
far-fetched to many of you.
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Sad, pretpostavljam kako
vam se ovo doima nategnutim.
vam se ovo doima nategnutim.
04:09
I bet there are those of you who doubt
that superintelligent AI is possible,
that superintelligent AI is possible,
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Kladim se kako vas ima koji sumnjate
kako je superinteligentan AI moguć,
kako je superinteligentan AI moguć,
04:15
much less inevitable.
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a još manje neizbježan.
04:17
But then you must find something wrong
with one of the following assumptions.
with one of the following assumptions.
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Ali onda morate naći nešto krivo
s nekom od slijedeći pretpostavki.
s nekom od slijedeći pretpostavki.
04:21
And there are only three of them.
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A samo ih je tri.
04:23
Intelligence is a matter of information
processing in physical systems.
processing in physical systems.
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Inteligencija je stvar obrade
informacija u fizičkim sustavima.
informacija u fizičkim sustavima.
04:29
Actually, this is a little bit more
than an assumption.
than an assumption.
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Zapravo, ovo je
malo više od pretpostavke.
malo više od pretpostavke.
04:31
We have already built
narrow intelligence into our machines,
narrow intelligence into our machines,
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Već smo ugradili
usku inteligenciju u naše strojeve,
usku inteligenciju u naše strojeve,
04:35
and many of these machines perform
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i puno tih strojeva imaju izvedbu
04:37
at a level of superhuman
intelligence already.
intelligence already.
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na razini nadljudske
inteligencije već sada.
inteligencije već sada.
04:40
And we know that mere matter
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I znamo kako puka materija
04:43
can give rise to what is called
"general intelligence,"
"general intelligence,"
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može omogućiti nastanak
onog što nazivamo "opća inteligencija,"
onog što nazivamo "opća inteligencija,"
04:46
an ability to think flexibly
across multiple domains,
across multiple domains,
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sposobnost razmišljanja
rastezljivog na višestruka područja,
rastezljivog na višestruka područja,
04:49
because our brains have managed it. Right?
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jer to mogu naši mozgovi. U redu?
04:52
I mean, there's just atoms in here,
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Mislim, ovdje su samo atomi,
04:56
and as long as we continue
to build systems of atoms
to build systems of atoms
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i sve dok nastavimo
graditi sustave atoma
graditi sustave atoma
05:01
that display more and more
intelligent behavior,
intelligent behavior,
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koji pokazuju sve više
inteligentnog ponašanja
inteligentnog ponašanja
05:04
we will eventually,
unless we are interrupted,
unless we are interrupted,
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s vremenom ćemo,
osim ako ne budemo ometeni,
osim ako ne budemo ometeni,
05:06
we will eventually
build general intelligence
build general intelligence
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s vremenom ćemo
ugraditi opću inteligenciju
ugraditi opću inteligenciju
05:10
into our machines.
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u naše strojeve.
05:11
It's crucial to realize
that the rate of progress doesn't matter,
that the rate of progress doesn't matter,
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Ključno je shvatiti
kako stopa napretka nije bitna,
kako stopa napretka nije bitna,
05:15
because any progress
is enough to get us into the end zone.
is enough to get us into the end zone.
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jer će nas bilo kakav
napredak dovesti u krajnju zonu.
napredak dovesti u krajnju zonu.
05:18
We don't need Moore's law to continue.
We don't need exponential progress.
We don't need exponential progress.
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Ne trebamo nastavak Mooreovog zakona.
Ne trebamo eksponencijalni rast.
Ne trebamo eksponencijalni rast.
05:22
We just need to keep going.
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Samo trebamo nastaviti napredovati.
05:25
The second assumption
is that we will keep going.
is that we will keep going.
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Druga je pretpostavka
kako ćemo nastaviti napredovati.
kako ćemo nastaviti napredovati.
05:29
We will continue to improve
our intelligent machines.
our intelligent machines.
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Nastavit ćemo unapređivati
naše inteligentne strojeve.
naše inteligentne strojeve.
05:33
And given the value of intelligence --
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A uzevši vrijednost inteligencije --
05:37
I mean, intelligence is either
the source of everything we value
the source of everything we value
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Mislim, inteligencija je ili
izvor svega što držimo vrijednim
izvor svega što držimo vrijednim
05:40
or we need it to safeguard
everything we value.
everything we value.
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ili je trebamo kako bi zaštitili
sve što smatramo vrijednim.
sve što smatramo vrijednim.
05:43
It is our most valuable resource.
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Ona je naš najvredniji resurs.
05:46
So we want to do this.
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Pa želimo to raditi.
05:47
We have problems
that we desperately need to solve.
that we desperately need to solve.
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Imamo probleme
koje očajnički trebamo riješiti.
koje očajnički trebamo riješiti.
05:50
We want to cure diseases
like Alzheimer's and cancer.
like Alzheimer's and cancer.
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Želimo liječiti bolesti
poput Alzheimera ili raka.
poput Alzheimera ili raka.
05:54
We want to understand economic systems.
We want to improve our climate science.
We want to improve our climate science.
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Želimo razumjeti ekonomske sustave.
Želimo unaprijediti naše klimatske znanosti.
Želimo unaprijediti naše klimatske znanosti.
05:58
So we will do this, if we can.
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Pa ćemo to učiniti, ako možemo.
06:01
The train is already out of the station,
and there's no brake to pull.
and there's no brake to pull.
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Vlak je već napustio postaju
a nema kočnice za povući.
a nema kočnice za povući.
06:05
Finally, we don't stand
on a peak of intelligence,
on a peak of intelligence,
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Konačno, ne stojimo
na vrhuncu inteligencije,
na vrhuncu inteligencije,
06:11
or anywhere near it, likely.
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ili igdje blizu njega, vjerojatno.
06:13
And this really is the crucial insight.
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A to je zbilja ključan uvid.
06:15
This is what makes
our situation so precarious,
our situation so precarious,
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To je ono što čini
našu situaciju tako neizvjesnom,
našu situaciju tako neizvjesnom,
06:18
and this is what makes our intuitions
about risk so unreliable.
about risk so unreliable.
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i to je ono što čini
naše intuicije o riziku tako nepouzdanim.
naše intuicije o riziku tako nepouzdanim.
06:23
Now, just consider the smartest person
who has ever lived.
who has ever lived.
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Sad, samo razmotrite najpametniju osobu
koja je ikad živjela.
koja je ikad živjela.
06:26
On almost everyone's shortlist here
is John von Neumann.
is John von Neumann.
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U gotovo svačijem užem izboru
ovdje je John von Neumann.
ovdje je John von Neumann.
06:30
I mean, the impression that von Neumann
made on the people around him,
made on the people around him,
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Mislim, utisak koji je von Neumann
ostavljao na ljude oko sebe,
ostavljao na ljude oko sebe,
06:33
and this included the greatest
mathematicians and physicists of his time,
mathematicians and physicists of his time,
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a ti uključuju najveće matematičare
i fizičare njegovog doba,
i fizičare njegovog doba,
06:37
is fairly well-documented.
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je dobro dokumentirana.
06:39
If only half the stories
about him are half true,
about him are half true,
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Ako je samo pola priča
o njemu na pola istinito,
o njemu na pola istinito,
06:43
there's no question
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nema pitanja
06:44
he's one of the smartest people
who has ever lived.
who has ever lived.
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on je jedna od najpametnijih
osoba koje su ikad živjele.
osoba koje su ikad živjele.
06:47
So consider the spectrum of intelligence.
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Pa razmotrite spektar inteligencije.
06:50
Here we have John von Neumann.
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Ovdje imamo John von Neumanna.
06:53
And then we have you and me.
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A onda imamo vas i mene.
06:56
And then we have a chicken.
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A onda imamo piceka.
06:57
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
06:59
Sorry, a chicken.
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Pardon, piceka.
07:00
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
07:01
There's no reason for me to make this talk
more depressing than it needs to be.
more depressing than it needs to be.
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Nema razloga da učinim ovaj govor
depresivnijem nego što mora biti.
depresivnijem nego što mora biti.
07:05
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
07:08
It seems overwhelmingly likely, however,
that the spectrum of intelligence
that the spectrum of intelligence
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Izgleda premoćno vjerojatno,
međutim, kako se spektar inteligencije
međutim, kako se spektar inteligencije
07:11
extends much further
than we currently conceive,
than we currently conceive,
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proteže puno dalje
nego što trenutno poimamo,
nego što trenutno poimamo,
07:15
and if we build machines
that are more intelligent than we are,
that are more intelligent than we are,
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i ako sagradimo strojeve
koji su inteligentniji od nas,
koji su inteligentniji od nas,
07:19
they will very likely
explore this spectrum
explore this spectrum
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oni će vrlo vjerojatno
istražiti ovaj spektar
istražiti ovaj spektar
07:21
in ways that we can't imagine,
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na načine koje ne možemo zamisliti,
07:23
and exceed us in ways
that we can't imagine.
that we can't imagine.
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te nas nadmašiti na načine
koje ne možemo zamisliti.
koje ne možemo zamisliti.
07:27
And it's important to recognize that
this is true by virtue of speed alone.
this is true by virtue of speed alone.
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A bitno je prepoznati kako je
to istinito već po samom svojstvu brzine.
to istinito već po samom svojstvu brzine.
07:31
Right? So imagine if we just built
a superintelligent AI
a superintelligent AI
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U redu? Zamislite kako smo
upravo sagradili superinteligentan AI
upravo sagradili superinteligentan AI
07:36
that was no smarter
than your average team of researchers
than your average team of researchers
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koji nije pametniji od
vašeg prosječnog tima istraživača
vašeg prosječnog tima istraživača
07:39
at Stanford or MIT.
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na Stanfordu ili MIT-u.
07:42
Well, electronic circuits
function about a million times faster
function about a million times faster
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Dobro, elektronički krugovi
rade oko milijun puta brže
rade oko milijun puta brže
07:45
than biochemical ones,
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od onih biokemijskih,
07:46
so this machine should think
about a million times faster
about a million times faster
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pa bi ovaj stroj trebao
razmišljati oko milijun puta brže
razmišljati oko milijun puta brže
07:49
than the minds that built it.
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od umova koji su ga sagradili.
07:51
So you set it running for a week,
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Pa ga pustite raditi tjedan dana,
07:53
and it will perform 20,000 years
of human-level intellectual work,
of human-level intellectual work,
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a on će izvesti 20.000 godina
intelektualnog rada ljudske razine,
intelektualnog rada ljudske razine,
07:58
week after week after week.
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tjedan za tjednom za tjednom.
08:01
How could we even understand,
much less constrain,
much less constrain,
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Kako bi uopće mogli razumjeti,
puno manje ograničiti,
puno manje ograničiti,
08:04
a mind making this sort of progress?
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um koji stvara ovu vrst napretka?
08:08
The other thing that's worrying, frankly,
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Druga stvar koja je
zabrinjavajuća, iskreno,
zabrinjavajuća, iskreno,
08:11
is that, imagine the best case scenario.
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je kako, zamislite najbolji scenarij.
08:16
So imagine we hit upon a design
of superintelligent AI
of superintelligent AI
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dakle zamislite kako pogodimo
dizajn superinteligentne AI
dizajn superinteligentne AI
08:20
that has no safety concerns.
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koji nema sigurnosnih problema.
08:21
We have the perfect design
the first time around.
the first time around.
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Imamo savršen dizajn
iz prve.
iz prve.
08:24
It's as though we've been handed an oracle
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Kao da nam je dano proročanstvo
08:27
that behaves exactly as intended.
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koje se ponaša posve kako bi i trebalo.
08:29
Well, this machine would be
the perfect labor-saving device.
the perfect labor-saving device.
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Dobro, taj bi stroj bio
savršena naprava za uštedu rada.
savršena naprava za uštedu rada.
08:33
It can design the machine
that can build the machine
that can build the machine
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Može dizajnirati stroj
koji može izraditi stroj
koji može izraditi stroj
08:36
that can do any physical work,
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koji može obavljati
svaki fizički rad,
svaki fizički rad,
08:37
powered by sunlight,
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pogonjen sunčanom svjetlošću,
08:39
more or less for the cost
of raw materials.
of raw materials.
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manje ili više po cijeni
sirovog materijala.
sirovog materijala.
08:42
So we're talking about
the end of human drudgery.
the end of human drudgery.
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Dakle pričamo o
kraju ljudske tlake.
kraju ljudske tlake.
08:45
We're also talking about the end
of most intellectual work.
of most intellectual work.
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Također pričamo o kraju
većine intelektualnog rada.
većine intelektualnog rada.
08:49
So what would apes like ourselves
do in this circumstance?
do in this circumstance?
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Pa što bi majmuni poput nas
činili u takvim okolnostima?
činili u takvim okolnostima?
08:52
Well, we'd be free to play Frisbee
and give each other massages.
and give each other massages.
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Ok, bili bi slobodni
igrati frizbi i masirati se međusobno.
igrati frizbi i masirati se međusobno.
08:57
Add some LSD and some
questionable wardrobe choices,
questionable wardrobe choices,
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Dodajte nešto LSD i nešto
upitnih odluka oko odjeće,
upitnih odluka oko odjeće,
09:00
and the whole world
could be like Burning Man.
could be like Burning Man.
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i cijeli bi svijet mogao
biti poput Burning Mana.
biti poput Burning Mana.
09:02
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
09:06
Now, that might sound pretty good,
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Sad, to može zvučati prilično dobro,
09:09
but ask yourself what would happen
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ali pitajte se što bi se dogodilo
09:11
under our current economic
and political order?
and political order?
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pod našim trenutnim
ekonomskim i političkim poretkom?
ekonomskim i političkim poretkom?
09:14
It seems likely that we would witness
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Čini se vjerojatnim
kako bismo svjedočili
kako bismo svjedočili
09:16
a level of wealth inequality
and unemployment
and unemployment
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razini nejednakosti u bogatstvu
te nezaposlenosti
te nezaposlenosti
09:21
that we have never seen before.
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kakvu nismo vidjeli nikad prije.
09:22
Absent a willingness
to immediately put this new wealth
to immediately put this new wealth
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Bez volje za trenutnim
stavljanjem tog novog bogatstva
stavljanjem tog novog bogatstva
09:25
to the service of all humanity,
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u službu svog čovječanstva,
09:27
a few trillionaires could grace
the covers of our business magazines
the covers of our business magazines
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nekoliko bi trilijunaša moglo
resiti naslovnice naših poslovni časopisa
resiti naslovnice naših poslovni časopisa
09:31
while the rest of the world
would be free to starve.
would be free to starve.
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dok bi ostatak svijeta
bio slobodan gladovati.
bio slobodan gladovati.
09:34
And what would the Russians
or the Chinese do
or the Chinese do
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A što bi Rusi
ili Kinezi učinili
ili Kinezi učinili
09:36
if they heard that some company
in Silicon Valley
in Silicon Valley
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2616
ako bi čuli kako se
neka kompanija u Silicijskoj dolini
neka kompanija u Silicijskoj dolini
09:39
was about to deploy a superintelligent AI?
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2736
upravo sprema izbaciti
superinteligentnu AI?
superinteligentnu AI?
09:42
This machine would be capable
of waging war,
of waging war,
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Taj bi stroj bio
sposoban voditi rat,
sposoban voditi rat,
09:44
whether terrestrial or cyber,
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bilo zemaljski ili cyber,
09:47
with unprecedented power.
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sa neviđenom moći.
09:50
This is a winner-take-all scenario.
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Ovo je scenarij gdje pobjednik dobija sve.
09:52
To be six months ahead
of the competition here
of the competition here
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Biti šest mjeseci ispred
konkurencije ovdje
konkurencije ovdje
09:55
is to be 500,000 years ahead,
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je biti 500.000 godina ispred,
09:57
at a minimum.
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minimalno.
09:59
So it seems that even mere rumors
of this kind of breakthrough
of this kind of breakthrough
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Pa se čini kako bi čak i puke glasine
o ovakvoj vrsti probitka
o ovakvoj vrsti probitka
10:04
could cause our species to go berserk.
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mogle prouzročiti našu vrstu da poludi.
10:06
Now, one of the most frightening things,
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Sad, jedna od najviše
zastrašujućih stvari,
zastrašujućih stvari,
10:09
in my view, at this moment,
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kako ja to vidim, u ovom trenutku,
10:12
are the kinds of things
that AI researchers say
that AI researchers say
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su stvari koje istraživači AI govore
10:16
when they want to be reassuring.
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kada žele biti ohrabrujući.
10:19
And the most common reason
we're told not to worry is time.
we're told not to worry is time.
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A najčešći razlog za bezbrižnost
koji navode je vrijeme.
koji navode je vrijeme.
10:22
This is all a long way off,
don't you know.
don't you know.
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To je sve daleko,
ne znaš li?
ne znaš li?
10:24
This is probably 50 or 100 years away.
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To je vjerojatno 50 ili 100 godina od nas.
10:27
One researcher has said,
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Jedan je istraživač rekao:
10:29
"Worrying about AI safety
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"Brinuti se oko sigurnosti AI
10:30
is like worrying
about overpopulation on Mars."
about overpopulation on Mars."
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je poput brige
o prekomjernoj populaciji na Marsu."
o prekomjernoj populaciji na Marsu."
10:34
This is the Silicon Valley version
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1620
To je verzija iz Silicijske doline
10:35
of "don't worry your
pretty little head about it."
pretty little head about it."
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one: "nemoj brinuti
svoju lijepu malu glavu sa time."
svoju lijepu malu glavu sa time."
10:38
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
10:39
No one seems to notice
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Izgleda kako nitko ne primjećuje
10:41
that referencing the time horizon
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kako je oslanjanje na vremenski horizont
10:44
is a total non sequitur.
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potpuni non sequitur.
10:46
If intelligence is just a matter
of information processing,
of information processing,
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Ako je inteligencija samo pitanje
procesiranja informacija,
procesiranja informacija,
10:49
and we continue to improve our machines,
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te ako nastavimo
unapređivati naše strojeve,
unapređivati naše strojeve,
10:52
we will produce
some form of superintelligence.
some form of superintelligence.
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stvorit ćemo
neki oblik superinteligencije.
neki oblik superinteligencije.
10:56
And we have no idea
how long it will take us
how long it will take us
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A nemamo pojma
koliko će nam dugo trebati
koliko će nam dugo trebati
11:00
to create the conditions
to do that safely.
to do that safely.
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stvoriti uvjete
kako bismo to učinili sigurno.
kako bismo to učinili sigurno.
11:04
Let me say that again.
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Dajte da to kažem ponovo.
11:05
We have no idea how long it will take us
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Nemamo pojma
koliko će nam dugo trebati
koliko će nam dugo trebati
11:09
to create the conditions
to do that safely.
to do that safely.
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stvoriti uvjete
kako bismo to učinili sigurno.
kako bismo to učinili sigurno.
11:12
And if you haven't noticed,
50 years is not what it used to be.
50 years is not what it used to be.
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A ako niste primijetili,
50 godina nije što je nekad bilo.
50 godina nije što je nekad bilo.
11:16
This is 50 years in months.
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Ovo je 50 godina u mjesecima.
11:18
This is how long we've had the iPhone.
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Ovo je koliko dugo imamo iPhone.
11:21
This is how long "The Simpsons"
has been on television.
has been on television.
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Ovo je koliko dugo su
"Simpsoni" na televiziji.
"Simpsoni" na televiziji.
11:24
Fifty years is not that much time
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Pedeset godina nije tako puno vremena
11:27
to meet one of the greatest challenges
our species will ever face.
our species will ever face.
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za sučeliti se sa jednim od
najvećih izazova koje će naša vrsta ikad imati.
najvećih izazova koje će naša vrsta ikad imati.
11:31
Once again, we seem to be failing
to have an appropriate emotional response
to have an appropriate emotional response
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Još jednom, izgleda da ne uspijevamo
imati prikladan emotivni odgovor
imati prikladan emotivni odgovor
11:35
to what we have every reason
to believe is coming.
to believe is coming.
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za što imamo
svaki razlog vjerovati kako dolazi.
svaki razlog vjerovati kako dolazi.
11:38
The computer scientist Stuart Russell
has a nice analogy here.
has a nice analogy here.
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Računalni znanstvenik Stuart Russell
ovdje pravi zgodnu analogiju.
ovdje pravi zgodnu analogiju.
11:42
He said, imagine that we received
a message from an alien civilization,
a message from an alien civilization,
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On kaže, zamislite kako smo primili
poruku od vanzemaljske civilizacije,
poruku od vanzemaljske civilizacije,
11:47
which read:
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koja piše:
11:49
"People of Earth,
237
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1536
"Ljudi Zemlje,
11:50
we will arrive on your planet in 50 years.
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stići ćemo na vaš planet za 50 godina.
11:53
Get ready."
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1576
Pripremite se."
11:55
And now we're just counting down
the months until the mothership lands?
the months until the mothership lands?
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I sad mi samo brojimo
mjesece dok matični brod ne sleti?
mjesece dok matični brod ne sleti?
11:59
We would feel a little
more urgency than we do.
more urgency than we do.
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Osjećali bismo malo veću
hitnost nego što osjećamo.
hitnost nego što osjećamo.
12:04
Another reason we're told not to worry
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Još jedan razlog
što nam govore da ne brinemo
što nam govore da ne brinemo
12:06
is that these machines
can't help but share our values
can't help but share our values
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je kako si ti strojevi
ne mogu pomoći da ne dijele naše vrijednosti
ne mogu pomoći da ne dijele naše vrijednosti
12:09
because they will be literally
extensions of ourselves.
extensions of ourselves.
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jer će doslovno biti
produžeci nas samih.
produžeci nas samih.
12:12
They'll be grafted onto our brains,
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Bit će usađeni u naše mozgove,
12:14
and we'll essentially
become their limbic systems.
become their limbic systems.
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a mi ćemo u biti
postati njihov limbički sustav.
postati njihov limbički sustav.
12:17
Now take a moment to consider
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sad uzmite trenutak pa razmislite
12:18
that the safest
and only prudent path forward,
and only prudent path forward,
248
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kako je najsigurniji
i jedini razborit put naprijed,
i jedini razborit put naprijed,
12:21
recommended,
249
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1336
preporučeno,
12:23
is to implant this technology
directly into our brains.
directly into our brains.
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2800
ugraditi tu tehnologiju
izravno u naše mozgove.
izravno u naše mozgove.
12:26
Now, this may in fact be the safest
and only prudent path forward,
and only prudent path forward,
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Sad, to može zapravo biti najsigurniji
i jedini razborit put nparijed,
i jedini razborit put nparijed,
12:30
but usually one's safety concerns
about a technology
about a technology
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ali obično sigurnosni problemi
oko tehnologije
oko tehnologije
12:33
have to be pretty much worked out
before you stick it inside your head.
before you stick it inside your head.
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moraju biti manje više izglađeni
prije nego ju zabijete u vlastitu glavu.
prije nego ju zabijete u vlastitu glavu.
12:36
(Laughter)
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2016
(Smijeh)
12:38
The deeper problem is that
building superintelligent AI on its own
building superintelligent AI on its own
255
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Dublji je problem što se
izgradnja superinteligentne AI
izgradnja superinteligentne AI
12:44
seems likely to be easier
256
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čini vjerojatno lakšim
12:45
than building superintelligent AI
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nego izgradnja superinteligentne AI
12:47
and having the completed neuroscience
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i imanje zaokružene neuroznanosti
12:49
that allows us to seamlessly
integrate our minds with it.
integrate our minds with it.
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koja nam omogućuje da ju glatko
integriramo s našim umovima.
integriramo s našim umovima.
12:52
And given that the companies
and governments doing this work
and governments doing this work
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A uzevši kako će kompanije
i vlade koje se bave ovim poslom
i vlade koje se bave ovim poslom
12:56
are likely to perceive themselves
as being in a race against all others,
as being in a race against all others,
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vjerojatno percipirati
kako su u utrci protiv svih ostalih,
kako su u utrci protiv svih ostalih,
12:59
given that to win this race
is to win the world,
is to win the world,
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uzevši kako je osvojiti ovu utrku
isto što i osvojiti svijet,
isto što i osvojiti svijet,
13:02
provided you don't destroy it
in the next moment,
in the next moment,
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pod pretpostavkom kako ga
nećete uništiti u slijedećem trenutku,
nećete uništiti u slijedećem trenutku,
13:05
then it seems likely
that whatever is easier to do
that whatever is easier to do
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onda se čini vjerojatnim
kako će što god je lakše učiniti
kako će što god je lakše učiniti
13:08
will get done first.
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biti učinjeno prvo.
13:10
Now, unfortunately,
I don't have a solution to this problem,
I don't have a solution to this problem,
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Sad, na nesreću,
nemam rješenje za ovaj problem,
nemam rješenje za ovaj problem,
13:13
apart from recommending
that more of us think about it.
that more of us think about it.
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osim preporučiti kako bi više nas
trebalo razmišljati o njemu.
trebalo razmišljati o njemu.
13:16
I think we need something
like a Manhattan Project
like a Manhattan Project
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Mislim kako trebamo nešto
poput Manhattan Projecta
poput Manhattan Projecta
13:18
on the topic of artificial intelligence.
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po pitanju umjetne inteligencije.
13:20
Not to build it, because I think
we'll inevitably do that,
we'll inevitably do that,
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Ne kako bismo je stvorili, jer
ćemo to neizbježno napraviti,
ćemo to neizbježno napraviti,
13:23
but to understand
how to avoid an arms race
how to avoid an arms race
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već kako bismo razumjeli
kako izbjeći utrku u naoružanju
kako izbjeći utrku u naoružanju
13:26
and to build it in a way
that is aligned with our interests.
that is aligned with our interests.
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te kako ju sagraditi na način
koji se podudara s našim interesima.
koji se podudara s našim interesima.
13:30
When you're talking
about superintelligent AI
about superintelligent AI
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Kad pričate o
superinteligentnoj AI
superinteligentnoj AI
13:32
that can make changes to itself,
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koja može raditi preinake sebi samoj,
13:34
it seems that we only have one chance
to get the initial conditions right,
to get the initial conditions right,
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čini se kako imamo samo jednu priliku
za posložiti ispravne početne uvjete,
za posložiti ispravne početne uvjete,
13:39
and even then we will need to absorb
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a čak i tada ćemo trebati upiti
13:41
the economic and political
consequences of getting them right.
consequences of getting them right.
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ekonomske i političke
posljedice slaganja takvih uvjeta.
posljedice slaganja takvih uvjeta.
13:45
But the moment we admit
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Ali trenutak u kojem priznamo
13:47
that information processing
is the source of intelligence,
is the source of intelligence,
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kako je obrada informacija
izvor inteligencije,
izvor inteligencije,
13:52
that some appropriate computational system
is what the basis of intelligence is,
is what the basis of intelligence is,
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kako je neki prikladan račualni sustav
ono na čemu se inteligencija temelji,
ono na čemu se inteligencija temelji,
13:58
and we admit that we will improve
these systems continuously,
these systems continuously,
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te priznamo kako ćemo
trajno unaprijeđivati te sustave,
trajno unaprijeđivati te sustave,
14:03
and we admit that the horizon
of cognition very likely far exceeds
of cognition very likely far exceeds
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te priznamo kako horizont
spoznaje vrlo vjerojatno daleko premašuje
spoznaje vrlo vjerojatno daleko premašuje
14:07
what we currently know,
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što trenutno znamo,
14:10
then we have to admit
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onda moramo priznati
14:11
that we are in the process
of building some sort of god.
of building some sort of god.
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kako smo u postupku
izgradnje neke vrste boga.
izgradnje neke vrste boga.
14:15
Now would be a good time
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Sad bi bilo dobro vrijeme
14:17
to make sure it's a god we can live with.
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osigurati da to bude bog
s kakvim možemo živjeti.
s kakvim možemo živjeti.
14:20
Thank you very much.
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Hvala Vam puno.
14:21
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Sam Harris - Neuroscientist, philosopherSam Harris's work focuses on how our growing understanding of ourselves and the world is changing our sense of how we should live.
Why you should listen
Sam Harris is the author of five New York Times bestsellers. His books include The End of Faith, Letter to a Christian Nation, The Moral Landscape, Free Will, Lying, Waking Up and Islam and the Future of Tolerance (with Maajid Nawaz). The End of Faith won the 2005 PEN Award for Nonfiction. Harris's writing and public lectures cover a wide range of topics -- neuroscience, moral philosophy, religion, spirituality, violence, human reasoning -- but generally focus on how a growing understanding of ourselves and the world is changing our sense of how we should live.
Harris's work has been published in more than 20 languages and has been discussed in the New York Times, Time, Scientific American, Nature, Newsweek, Rolling Stone and many other journals. He has written for the New York Times, the Los Angeles Times, The Economist, The Times (London), the Boston Globe, The Atlantic, The Annals of Neurology and elsewhere. Harris also regularly hosts a popular podcast.
Harris received a degree in philosophy from Stanford University and a Ph.D. in neuroscience from UCLA.
Sam Harris | Speaker | TED.com