TEDSummit
Sam Harris: Can we build AI without losing control over it?
Sam Harris: 我哋可唔可以完全掌控人工智能？
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怕超級人工智能？神經學家同哲學家 Sam Harris 話畀你知你應該要怕，而且唔單止係口講嘅怕，仲要實在嘅怕。Sam Harris 話人類將要開發比人類仲犀利嘅機器，但係人類仲未處理好一啲帶嚟嘅問題，包括機器有可能會以我哋對待螞蟻嘅方式對待我哋。
Sam Harris - Neuroscientist, philosopher
Sam Harris's work focuses on how our growing understanding of ourselves and the world is changing our sense of how we should live. Full bio
Sam Harris's work focuses on how our growing understanding of ourselves and the world is changing our sense of how we should live. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
I'm going to talk
about a failure of intuition
about a failure of intuition
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我想講下
一個好多人都經歷過嘅感官錯覺
一個好多人都經歷過嘅感官錯覺
00:15
that many of us suffer from.
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00:17
It's really a failure
to detect a certain kind of danger.
to detect a certain kind of danger.
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當呢個錯覺嚟嗰陣
我哋會唔識得留意危險
00:21
I'm going to describe a scenario
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我亦都想講下一個我認為駭人聽聞
00:23
that I think is both terrifying
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同時又好有可能會發生嘅情景
00:26
and likely to occur,
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00:28
and that's not a good combination,
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呢個情景發生嘅話，唔係一件好事嚟
00:30
as it turns out.
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00:32
And yet rather than be scared,
most of you will feel
most of you will feel
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你哋可能唔覺得我依家講緊嘅嘢恐怖
00:34
that what I'm talking about
is kind of cool.
is kind of cool.
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反而覺得好型
00:37
I'm going to describe
how the gains we make
how the gains we make
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所以我想講下
我哋人類喺人工智能方面取得嘅成就
我哋人類喺人工智能方面取得嘅成就
00:40
in artificial intelligence
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00:42
could ultimately destroy us.
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最终會點樣摧毀我哋
00:43
And in fact, I think it's very difficult
to see how they won't destroy us
to see how they won't destroy us
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而事實上，我認為好難會見到
佢哋唔會摧毀我哋
或者導致我哋自我毀滅
或者導致我哋自我毀滅
00:47
or inspire us to destroy ourselves.
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00:49
And yet if you're anything like me,
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依家你哋或者同我一樣
00:51
you'll find that it's fun
to think about these things.
to think about these things.
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覺得諗呢啲嘢好得意
00:53
And that response is part of the problem.
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正因為覺得得意
亦都成為咗問題嘅一部份
00:57
OK? That response should worry you.
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你哋應該擔心你哋嘅反應至真！
00:59
And if I were to convince you in this talk
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如果我喺呢場演講度話畀你哋聽
01:02
that we were likely
to suffer a global famine,
to suffer a global famine,
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因為氣候變化或者大災難嘅原因
01:06
either because of climate change
or some other catastrophe,
or some other catastrophe,
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我哋會遭遇一場饑荒
而你嘅孫，或者佢哋嘅孫
會好似咁樣生活
會好似咁樣生活
01:09
and that your grandchildren,
or their grandchildren,
or their grandchildren,
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01:12
are very likely to live like this,
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你就唔會覺得
01:15
you wouldn't think,
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「好有趣，我鍾意呢場 TED 演講。」
01:17
"Interesting.
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01:18
I like this TED Talk."
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01:21
Famine isn't fun.
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饑荒一啲都唔有趣
但科幻小說描繪嘅死亡就好有趣
01:23
Death by science fiction,
on the other hand, is fun,
on the other hand, is fun,
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呢一刻，人工智能發展
最令我最困擾嘅係
最令我最困擾嘅係
01:27
and one of the things that worries me most
about the development of AI at this point
about the development of AI at this point
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我哋面對近在眼前嘅危險似乎無動於衷
01:31
is that we seem unable to marshal
an appropriate emotional response
an appropriate emotional response
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01:35
to the dangers that lie ahead.
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雖然我喺你哋面前演講
01:37
I am unable to marshal this response,
and I'm giving this talk.
and I'm giving this talk.
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但我同你哋一樣都係冇反應
成件事就好似我哋企喺兩道門前面
01:42
It's as though we stand before two doors.
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喺一號門後面，我哋唔再發展智能機器
01:44
Behind door number one,
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01:46
we stop making progress
in building intelligent machines.
in building intelligent machines.
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因為某啲原因
01:49
Our computer hardware and software
just stops getting better for some reason.
just stops getting better for some reason.
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我哋電腦嘅硬件同軟件都停滯不前
依家嚟諗一下點解呢種情況會發生
01:53
Now take a moment
to consider why this might happen.
to consider why this might happen.
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即係話，因為智能同自動化好重要
01:57
I mean, given how valuable
intelligence and automation are,
intelligence and automation are,
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02:00
we will continue to improve our technology
if we are at all able to.
if we are at all able to.
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所以我哋會喺許可嘅情況之下
繼續改善科技
繼續改善科技
咁究竟係乜嘢會阻止我哋？
02:05
What could stop us from doing this?
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一個全面嘅核戰爭？
02:07
A full-scale nuclear war?
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一個全球流行病？
02:11
A global pandemic?
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一個小行星撞擊？
02:14
An asteroid impact?
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Justin Bieber 做咗美國總統？
02:17
Justin Bieber becoming
president of the United States?
president of the United States?
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（笑聲）
02:20
(Laughter)
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02:24
The point is, something would have to
destroy civilization as we know it.
destroy civilization as we know it.
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之但係，如我哋所知
有一啲嘢會摧毀文明
02:29
You have to imagine
how bad it would have to be
how bad it would have to be
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你必須要想像
如果我哋一代又一代人
永遠改善唔到科技
永遠改善唔到科技
02:33
to prevent us from making
improvements in our technology
improvements in our technology
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02:37
permanently,
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情況會有幾嚴重
02:38
generation after generation.
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幾乎可以確定嘅係
02:40
Almost by definition,
this is the worst thing
this is the worst thing
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呢個係人類史上最壞嘅事
02:42
that's ever happened in human history.
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所以唯一嘅選擇
就係二號門後嘅做法
就係二號門後嘅做法
02:44
So the only alternative,
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02:45
and this is what lies
behind door number two,
behind door number two,
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我哋繼續年復一年升級改造智能機器
02:48
is that we continue
to improve our intelligent machines
to improve our intelligent machines
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02:51
year after year after year.
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到咗某個地步
02:53
At a certain point, we will build
machines that are smarter than we are,
machines that are smarter than we are,
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我哋就會整出比我哋仲要聰明嘅機器
一旦我哋有咗比我哋自己
仲聰明嘅機器
仲聰明嘅機器
02:58
and once we have machines
that are smarter than we are,
that are smarter than we are,
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佢哋就會自我改良
03:00
they will begin to improve themselves.
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到時我哋就會面臨數學家 IJ Good
講嘅「智能爆炸」危機
講嘅「智能爆炸」危機
03:02
And then we risk what
the mathematician IJ Good called
the mathematician IJ Good called
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03:05
an "intelligence explosion,"
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即係話，改良過程唔再需要人類
03:07
that the process could get away from us.
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依家，經常會有人學呢張諷刺漫畫咁
03:10
Now, this is often caricatured,
as I have here,
as I have here,
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03:12
as a fear that armies of malicious robots
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描繪叛變嘅機器人會攻擊我哋
03:16
will attack us.
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但係呢個唔係最有可能發生嘅情景
03:17
But that isn't the most likely scenario.
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03:20
It's not that our machines
will become spontaneously malevolent.
will become spontaneously malevolent.
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我哋嘅機器唔會自動變惡
所以問題在於我哋製造出
比我哋更加做到嘢嘅機器嘅時候
比我哋更加做到嘢嘅機器嘅時候
03:25
The concern is really
that we will build machines
that we will build machines
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03:27
that are so much
more competent than we are
more competent than we are
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03:29
that the slightest divergence
between their goals and our own
between their goals and our own
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佢哋目標上同我哋嘅細微分歧
會置我哋於死地
會置我哋於死地
03:33
could destroy us.
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03:35
Just think about how we relate to ants.
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就諗下我哋同螞蟻之間嘅關係︰
03:38
We don't hate them.
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我哋唔討厭佢哋
我哋唔會傷害佢哋
03:40
We don't go out of our way to harm them.
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03:42
In fact, sometimes
we take pains not to harm them.
we take pains not to harm them.
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甚至我哋為咗唔傷害佢哋
而會受一啲苦
而會受一啲苦
03:44
We step over them on the sidewalk.
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例如我哋會為咗唔踩到佢哋
而跨過佢哋
而跨過佢哋
但係一旦佢哋嘅存在
同我哋嘅其中一個目標有嚴重衝突
同我哋嘅其中一個目標有嚴重衝突
03:46
But whenever their presence
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03:48
seriously conflicts with one of our goals,
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譬如話要起一棟咁樣嘅樓
03:51
let's say when constructing
a building like this one,
a building like this one,
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我哋諗都唔諗就殺死佢哋
03:53
we annihilate them without a qualm.
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03:56
The concern is that we will
one day build machines
one day build machines
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問題係，我哋終有一日整出嘅機器——
03:59
that, whether they're conscious or not,
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無論佢哋自己有冇意識都好
同樣會冷漠咁對待我哋
04:02
could treat us with similar disregard.
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依家，我估對於你哋大部份人嚟講
呢件情景都係遙不可及嘅
呢件情景都係遙不可及嘅
04:05
Now, I suspect this seems
far-fetched to many of you.
far-fetched to many of you.
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04:09
I bet there are those of you who doubt
that superintelligent AI is possible,
that superintelligent AI is possible,
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我賭你哋當中有人質疑
超級智能嘅可能性
超級智能嘅可能性
更加唔好講
人類要避免超級智能
人類要避免超級智能
04:15
much less inevitable.
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04:17
But then you must find something wrong
with one of the following assumptions.
with one of the following assumptions.
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但係你哋肯定會喺下面嘅假設當中
搵到一啲謬誤
搵到一啲謬誤
呢度一共有三個假設
04:21
And there are only three of them.
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04:23
Intelligence is a matter of information
processing in physical systems.
processing in physical systems.
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喺物理系統裏面，智能等如訊息處理
04:29
Actually, this is a little bit more
than an assumption.
than an assumption.
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但係，呢個超過咗假設
因為我哋已經喺我哋嘅機器裏面
植入咗弱人工智能
植入咗弱人工智能
04:31
We have already built
narrow intelligence into our machines,
narrow intelligence into our machines,
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04:35
and many of these machines perform
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而且呢啲機器好多
已經處於一個超人類智能水平
已經處於一個超人類智能水平
04:37
at a level of superhuman
intelligence already.
intelligence already.
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04:40
And we know that mere matter
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同時我哋知道僅僅係物質
就可以產生所謂嘅「一般智能」
就可以產生所謂嘅「一般智能」
04:43
can give rise to what is called
"general intelligence,"
"general intelligence,"
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一種可以喺唔同領域之間
靈活思考嘅能力
靈活思考嘅能力
04:46
an ability to think flexibly
across multiple domains,
across multiple domains,
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咁係因為我哋嘅大腦
已經可以做到，係唔係？
已經可以做到，係唔係？
04:49
because our brains have managed it. Right?
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我嘅意思係，大腦凈係得原子
04:52
I mean, there's just atoms in here,
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只要我哋繼續加設原子系統
04:56
and as long as we continue
to build systems of atoms
to build systems of atoms
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05:01
that display more and more
intelligent behavior,
intelligent behavior,
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機器就可以有更加多智能行為
除非進度有咩停頓
05:04
we will eventually,
unless we are interrupted,
unless we are interrupted,
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05:06
we will eventually
build general intelligence
build general intelligence
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否則我哋最終會喺機器裏面
建構出一般智能
建構出一般智能
05:10
into our machines.
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明白進度嘅快慢並唔影響係好重要
05:11
It's crucial to realize
that the rate of progress doesn't matter,
that the rate of progress doesn't matter,
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因為任何過程都足以令我哋返唔到轉頭
05:15
because any progress
is enough to get us into the end zone.
is enough to get us into the end zone.
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我哋唔需要按照摩爾定律進行
05:18
We don't need Moore's law to continue.
We don't need exponential progress.
We don't need exponential progress.
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我哋唔需要指數式增長
05:22
We just need to keep going.
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我哋只需要繼續做
第二個假設就係我哋會繼續做
05:25
The second assumption
is that we will keep going.
is that we will keep going.
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我哋會繼續改造我哋嘅智能機器
05:29
We will continue to improve
our intelligent machines.
our intelligent machines.
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05:33
And given the value of intelligence --
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而考慮到智能嘅價值…
我係話，因為有智能
我哋至會珍重事物
我哋至會珍重事物
05:37
I mean, intelligence is either
the source of everything we value
the source of everything we value
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05:40
or we need it to safeguard
everything we value.
everything we value.
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或者我哋需要智能
去保護我哋珍重嘅一切
去保護我哋珍重嘅一切
05:43
It is our most valuable resource.
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智能係我哋最有寶貴嘅資源
05:46
So we want to do this.
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所以我哋想繼續發展智能
05:47
We have problems
that we desperately need to solve.
that we desperately need to solve.
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我哋有極需解決嘅問題
例如我哋想治療類似阿茲海默症
同癌症嘅疾病
同癌症嘅疾病
05:50
We want to cure diseases
like Alzheimer's and cancer.
like Alzheimer's and cancer.
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我哋想認識經濟系統
05:54
We want to understand economic systems.
We want to improve our climate science.
We want to improve our climate science.
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我哋想改善我哋嘅氣候科學
所以如果可以做到嘅話
我哋會繼續發展智能
我哋會繼續發展智能
05:58
So we will do this, if we can.
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06:01
The train is already out of the station,
and there's no brake to pull.
and there's no brake to pull.
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件事亦都可以比喻為︰
列車已經開出，但冇刹車掣可以踩
列車已經開出，但冇刹車掣可以踩
最終，我哋唔會去到
智能嘅頂峰或者高智能水平
智能嘅頂峰或者高智能水平
06:05
Finally, we don't stand
on a peak of intelligence,
on a peak of intelligence,
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06:11
or anywhere near it, likely.
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06:13
And this really is the crucial insight.
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而呢個就係非常重要嘅觀察結果
06:15
This is what makes
our situation so precarious,
our situation so precarious,
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就係呢個結果
將我哋置於岌岌可危嘅境地
將我哋置於岌岌可危嘅境地
06:18
and this is what makes our intuitions
about risk so unreliable.
about risk so unreliable.
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亦令到我哋對於危險嘅觸覺唔可靠
依家，就諗下史上最聰明嘅人
06:23
Now, just consider the smartest person
who has ever lived.
who has ever lived.
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幾乎喺每個人嘅名單上面
都會有 John von Neumann
都會有 John von Neumann
06:26
On almost everyone's shortlist here
is John von Neumann.
is John von Neumann.
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06:30
I mean, the impression that von Neumann
made on the people around him,
made on the people around him,
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我嘅意思係 John von Neumann
畀佢周圍嘅人嘅印象
畀佢周圍嘅人嘅印象
包括佢畀嗰個時代最犀利嘅數學家
同物理學家嘅印象
同物理學家嘅印象
06:33
and this included the greatest
mathematicians and physicists of his time,
mathematicians and physicists of his time,
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都係有紀錄低嘅
06:37
is fairly well-documented.
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如果一半關於佢嘅故事有一半係真嘅
06:39
If only half the stories
about him are half true,
about him are half true,
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咁毫無疑問
06:43
there's no question
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佢係有史以來其中一個最聰明嘅人
06:44
he's one of the smartest people
who has ever lived.
who has ever lived.
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所以當我哋畫一幅比較智力嘅圖
06:47
So consider the spectrum of intelligence.
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喺右邊高分嘅位置
我哋有 John von Neumann
我哋有 John von Neumann
06:50
Here we have John von Neumann.
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喺中間有你同我
06:53
And then we have you and me.
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06:56
And then we have a chicken.
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去到最左邊，我哋有雞仔
06:57
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
係吖，就係一隻雞仔
06:59
Sorry, a chicken.
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07:00
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
我冇理由將呢個演講搞到咁灰㗎
07:01
There's no reason for me to make this talk
more depressing than it needs to be.
more depressing than it needs to be.
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（笑聲）
07:05
(Laughter)
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07:08
It seems overwhelmingly likely, however,
that the spectrum of intelligence
that the spectrum of intelligence
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但好有可能智力分佈
遠比我哋目前認知嘅廣
遠比我哋目前認知嘅廣
07:11
extends much further
than we currently conceive,
than we currently conceive,
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如果我哋建造出
比我哋擁有更高智慧嘅機器
比我哋擁有更高智慧嘅機器
07:15
and if we build machines
that are more intelligent than we are,
that are more intelligent than we are,
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佢哋嘅智力好有可能會
超越我哋認知嘅最高智力
超越我哋認知嘅最高智力
07:19
they will very likely
explore this spectrum
explore this spectrum
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07:21
in ways that we can't imagine,
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07:23
and exceed us in ways
that we can't imagine.
that we can't imagine.
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同埋以無法想像嘅方式超越我哋
07:27
And it's important to recognize that
this is true by virtue of speed alone.
this is true by virtue of speed alone.
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同樣重要嘅係
單憑運算速度就可以超越我哋
單憑運算速度就可以超越我哋
啱唔啱？諗下如果我哋整咗一個
07:31
Right? So imagine if we just built
a superintelligent AI
a superintelligent AI
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冇哈佛或者麻省理工研究人員
咁聰明嘅超級人工智能
咁聰明嘅超級人工智能
07:36
that was no smarter
than your average team of researchers
than your average team of researchers
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07:39
at Stanford or MIT.
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但電路運行速度大概
比生化電路快一百萬倍
比生化電路快一百萬倍
07:42
Well, electronic circuits
function about a million times faster
function about a million times faster
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07:45
than biochemical ones,
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所以呢個機器嘅思考速度應該會
比佢嘅創造者快大概一百萬倍
比佢嘅創造者快大概一百萬倍
07:46
so this machine should think
about a million times faster
about a million times faster
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07:49
than the minds that built it.
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所以如果佢運行一個星期
07:51
So you set it running for a week,
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07:53
and it will perform 20,000 years
of human-level intellectual work,
of human-level intellectual work,
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佢就可以完成人類要兩萬年
先至完成得到嘅工作
先至完成得到嘅工作
07:58
week after week after week.
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而我哋又點會明白
08:01
How could we even understand,
much less constrain,
much less constrain,
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人工智能係點樣完成咁龐大嘅運算呢？
08:04
a mind making this sort of progress?
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另一個令人擔憂嘅事，老實講
08:08
The other thing that's worrying, frankly,
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08:11
is that, imagine the best case scenario.
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就係…不如想像一下最好嘅情形
08:16
So imagine we hit upon a design
of superintelligent AI
of superintelligent AI
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想像一下我哋設計咗一個
冇安全問題嘅超級人工智能
冇安全問題嘅超級人工智能
08:20
that has no safety concerns.
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我哋第一次擁有完美嘅設計
08:21
We have the perfect design
the first time around.
the first time around.
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08:24
It's as though we've been handed an oracle
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就好似我哋摞住
一個按照預期發展嘅神諭
一個按照預期發展嘅神諭
08:27
that behaves exactly as intended.
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08:29
Well, this machine would be
the perfect labor-saving device.
the perfect labor-saving device.
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呢個機器仲會變成完美嘅慳力設備
事關機器可以生產另一款機器出嚟
08:33
It can design the machine
that can build the machine
that can build the machine
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做任何體力勞動
08:36
that can do any physical work,
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兼由太陽能驅動
08:37
powered by sunlight,
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成本仲同買原材料差唔多
08:39
more or less for the cost
of raw materials.
of raw materials.
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所以，我哋唔單止講緊咕哩勞力嘅終結
08:42
So we're talking about
the end of human drudgery.
the end of human drudgery.
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我哋同時講緊大部份用腦工作嘅終結
08:45
We're also talking about the end
of most intellectual work.
of most intellectual work.
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咁我哋人類面對工作削減
應該何去何從？
應該何去何從？
08:49
So what would apes like ourselves
do in this circumstance?
do in this circumstance?
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我哋會好自由咁去掟飛盤 、同人按摩
08:52
Well, we'd be free to play Frisbee
and give each other massages.
and give each other massages.
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服食一啲 LSD 精神藥
同埋著上怪異服飾
同埋著上怪異服飾
08:57
Add some LSD and some
questionable wardrobe choices,
questionable wardrobe choices,
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於是成個世界都會變成火人節嘅人咁
09:00
and the whole world
could be like Burning Man.
could be like Burning Man.
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（笑聲）
09:02
(Laughter)
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09:06
Now, that might sound pretty good,
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頭先講到嘅嘢聽起上嚟好似好好咁
但係撫心自問
09:09
but ask yourself what would happen
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面對目前嘅經濟政治秩序
乜嘢會發生呢？
乜嘢會發生呢？
09:11
under our current economic
and political order?
and political order?
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09:14
It seems likely that we would witness
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似乎我哋會目睹
我哋從未見過咁嚴重嘅
貧富懸殊同失業率
貧富懸殊同失業率
09:16
a level of wealth inequality
and unemployment
and unemployment
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09:21
that we have never seen before.
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如果呢筆新財富唔即時用嚟服務全人類
09:22
Absent a willingness
to immediately put this new wealth
to immediately put this new wealth
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09:25
to the service of all humanity,
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就算一啲億萬富翁使好多錢
㨘靚商業雜誌嘅封面
㨘靚商業雜誌嘅封面
09:27
a few trillionaires could grace
the covers of our business magazines
the covers of our business magazines
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世界上其他人都要挨餓
09:31
while the rest of the world
would be free to starve.
would be free to starve.
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咁如果俄羅斯人或者中國人
09:34
And what would the Russians
or the Chinese do
or the Chinese do
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聽到矽谷嘅一啲公司
打算使用一個超級人工智能
打算使用一個超級人工智能
09:36
if they heard that some company
in Silicon Valley
in Silicon Valley
191
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09:39
was about to deploy a superintelligent AI?
192
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佢哋會點諗？
09:42
This machine would be capable
of waging war,
of waging war,
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呢個機器有能力用未見過嘅力度
發動地面或者網絡戰爭
發動地面或者網絡戰爭
09:44
whether terrestrial or cyber,
194
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09:47
with unprecedented power.
195
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呢個係「勝者全取」嘅情況
09:50
This is a winner-take-all scenario.
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喺呢場人工智能較量中有六個月嘅優勢
09:52
To be six months ahead
of the competition here
of the competition here
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就係至少要做多人類五十萬年做到嘅嘢
09:55
is to be 500,000 years ahead,
198
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2776
09:57
at a minimum.
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甚至只係關於人工智能突破嘅謠言
就可以令到人類亂起上嚟
就可以令到人類亂起上嚟
09:59
So it seems that even mere rumors
of this kind of breakthrough
of this kind of breakthrough
200
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10:04
could cause our species to go berserk.
201
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10:06
Now, one of the most frightening things,
202
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依家最驚人嘅一件事，我覺得
10:09
in my view, at this moment,
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就係人工智能研究人員
安定人心時講嘅說話
安定人心時講嘅說話
10:12
are the kinds of things
that AI researchers say
that AI researchers say
204
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10:16
when they want to be reassuring.
205
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佢哋成日話，因為我哋有時間
所以我哋唔需要擔心
所以我哋唔需要擔心
10:19
And the most common reason
we're told not to worry is time.
we're told not to worry is time.
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「乜你唔知有排咩？
10:22
This is all a long way off,
don't you know.
don't you know.
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10:24
This is probably 50 or 100 years away.
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仲有五十年或者一百年先到。」
一位研究人員曾經咁講︰
10:27
One researcher has said,
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10:29
"Worrying about AI safety
210
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「擔心人工智能嘅安全就好似
擔心火星人口爆棚一樣。」
擔心火星人口爆棚一樣。」
10:30
is like worrying
about overpopulation on Mars."
about overpopulation on Mars."
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呢句嘢等如矽谷同你講︰
10:34
This is the Silicon Valley version
212
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10:35
of "don't worry your
pretty little head about it."
pretty little head about it."
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「你十八廿二就杞人憂天！」
10:38
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
冇人意識到
攞時間嚟到講完全係無稽之談
攞時間嚟到講完全係無稽之談
10:39
No one seems to notice
215
627520
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10:41
that referencing the time horizon
216
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10:44
is a total non sequitur.
217
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如果智能凈係同處理訊息有關
10:46
If intelligence is just a matter
of information processing,
of information processing,
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同埋我哋繼續改良我哋嘅機器嘅話
10:49
and we continue to improve our machines,
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我哋最終會生產到超級智能
10:52
we will produce
some form of superintelligence.
some form of superintelligence.
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但我哋唔知道要用幾長時間
10:56
And we have no idea
how long it will take us
how long it will take us
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先可以生產安全嘅超級智能
11:00
to create the conditions
to do that safely.
to do that safely.
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11:04
Let me say that again.
223
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等我再講多一次
我哋唔知道要用幾長時間
11:05
We have no idea how long it will take us
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先可以生產安全嘅超級智能
11:09
to create the conditions
to do that safely.
to do that safely.
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11:12
And if you haven't noticed,
50 years is not what it used to be.
50 years is not what it used to be.
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如果你仲未意識到
五十年嘅概念已經唔同咗喇
11:16
This is 50 years in months.
227
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呢幅圖顯示咗以月份計嘅五十年
11:18
This is how long we've had the iPhone.
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先係 iPhone 面世至今嘅時間
再係阿森一族出現係電視上嘅時間
11:21
This is how long "The Simpsons"
has been on television.
has been on television.
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五十年不足以畀人類應對最大挑戰
11:24
Fifty years is not that much time
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11:27
to meet one of the greatest challenges
our species will ever face.
our species will ever face.
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再一次，我哋對於有理由發生嘅事
11:31
Once again, we seem to be failing
to have an appropriate emotional response
to have an appropriate emotional response
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未有採取適當嘅情緒反應
11:35
to what we have every reason
to believe is coming.
to believe is coming.
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對此，電腦科學家 Stuart Russell
有一個好嘅比喻
有一個好嘅比喻
11:38
The computer scientist Stuart Russell
has a nice analogy here.
has a nice analogy here.
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佢話︰想像一下我哋收到
一個來自外星文明嘅信息
一個來自外星文明嘅信息
11:42
He said, imagine that we received
a message from an alien civilization,
a message from an alien civilization,
235
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4896
上面寫住：
11:47
which read:
236
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1696
「地球上嘅人類，
11:49
"People of Earth,
237
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1536
我哋五十年之後會到達你哋嘅星球。
11:50
we will arrive on your planet in 50 years.
238
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請準備好。」
11:53
Get ready."
239
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1576
11:55
And now we're just counting down
the months until the mothership lands?
the months until the mothership lands?
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咁我哋依家凈係會倒數外星人來臨？
我哋應該更加緊張至係
11:59
We would feel a little
more urgency than we do.
more urgency than we do.
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另一個我哋被告知唔使擔心嘅原因係
12:04
Another reason we're told not to worry
242
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12:06
is that these machines
can't help but share our values
can't help but share our values
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呢啲機器只會識得
將我哋嘅價值觀傳開
將我哋嘅價值觀傳開
12:09
because they will be literally
extensions of ourselves.
extensions of ourselves.
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因為佢哋係我哋人類嘅附屬嘅一部分
但同時佢哋會被植入我哋嘅大腦
12:12
They'll be grafted onto our brains,
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12:14
and we'll essentially
become their limbic systems.
become their limbic systems.
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所以我哋會成為佢哋嘅邊緣系統
依家使啲時間諗下
最安全同唯一審慎嘅做法
最安全同唯一審慎嘅做法
12:17
Now take a moment to consider
247
725120
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12:18
that the safest
and only prudent path forward,
and only prudent path forward,
248
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而推薦嘅做法就係
直接將呢種科技植入我哋嘅大腦
直接將呢種科技植入我哋嘅大腦
12:21
recommended,
249
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1336
12:23
is to implant this technology
directly into our brains.
directly into our brains.
250
731120
2800
12:26
Now, this may in fact be the safest
and only prudent path forward,
and only prudent path forward,
251
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呢種做法可能係最安全同唯一審慎嘅
但係喺你將佢植入你個腦之前
12:30
but usually one's safety concerns
about a technology
about a technology
252
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3056
12:33
have to be pretty much worked out
before you stick it inside your head.
before you stick it inside your head.
253
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科技嘅安全問題需要解決
12:36
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
更深一層嘅問題係
12:38
The deeper problem is that
building superintelligent AI on its own
building superintelligent AI on its own
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人工智能自己整超級人工智能
似乎比整一個可以喺神經科學上
12:44
seems likely to be easier
256
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1736
12:45
than building superintelligent AI
257
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12:47
and having the completed neuroscience
258
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同我哋腦部無縫接合嘅
超級人工智能簡單
超級人工智能簡單
12:49
that allows us to seamlessly
integrate our minds with it.
integrate our minds with it.
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12:52
And given that the companies
and governments doing this work
and governments doing this work
260
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考慮到從事研發人工智能嘅公司
同政府好可能會互相競爭
同政府好可能會互相競爭
12:56
are likely to perceive themselves
as being in a race against all others,
as being in a race against all others,
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考慮到要贏呢場比賽就要贏成個世界
12:59
given that to win this race
is to win the world,
is to win the world,
262
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3256
同埋先假設如果你下一刻
唔會糟塌人工智能嘅成果
唔會糟塌人工智能嘅成果
13:02
provided you don't destroy it
in the next moment,
in the next moment,
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2456
13:05
then it seems likely
that whatever is easier to do
that whatever is easier to do
264
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咁樣，似乎更加簡單嘅事會完成咗先
13:08
will get done first.
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但唔好彩嘅係
我除咗叫大家反思呢個問題
我除咗叫大家反思呢個問題
13:10
Now, unfortunately,
I don't have a solution to this problem,
I don't have a solution to this problem,
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我就再冇辦法解決呢個問題
13:13
apart from recommending
that more of us think about it.
that more of us think about it.
267
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2616
我覺得我哋喺人工智能方面
13:16
I think we need something
like a Manhattan Project
like a Manhattan Project
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需要好似「曼哈頓計劃」咁嘅計劃
13:18
on the topic of artificial intelligence.
269
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唔係講點樣整人工智能
因為我認為人工智能終有一日會整到
因為我認為人工智能終有一日會整到
13:20
Not to build it, because I think
we'll inevitably do that,
we'll inevitably do that,
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13:23
but to understand
how to avoid an arms race
how to avoid an arms race
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而係搞清楚點樣避免一場軍備競賽
同埋往符合我哋利益嘅方向
發展人工智能
發展人工智能
13:26
and to build it in a way
that is aligned with our interests.
that is aligned with our interests.
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當你講緊可以自我改造嘅超級人工智能
13:30
When you're talking
about superintelligent AI
about superintelligent AI
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13:32
that can make changes to itself,
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13:34
it seems that we only have one chance
to get the initial conditions right,
to get the initial conditions right,
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我哋似乎只有一個機會
令到人工智能發展得安全
令到人工智能發展得安全
就算發展得安全
13:39
and even then we will need to absorb
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我哋都要接受
人工智能對經濟同政治產生嘅結果
人工智能對經濟同政治產生嘅結果
13:41
the economic and political
consequences of getting them right.
consequences of getting them right.
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13:45
But the moment we admit
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但係當我哋同意
訊息處理係智能嘅起步點
訊息處理係智能嘅起步點
13:47
that information processing
is the source of intelligence,
is the source of intelligence,
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同意一啲適當嘅計算系統係智能嘅基礎
13:52
that some appropriate computational system
is what the basis of intelligence is,
is what the basis of intelligence is,
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同意我哋會不斷完善人工智能
13:58
and we admit that we will improve
these systems continuously,
these systems continuously,
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同意將來有好多嘢超越我哋認知嘅
14:03
and we admit that the horizon
of cognition very likely far exceeds
of cognition very likely far exceeds
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14:07
what we currently know,
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咁我哋就必須要承認
我哋正喺度創造緊某種神明
我哋正喺度創造緊某種神明
14:10
then we have to admit
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14:11
that we are in the process
of building some sort of god.
of building some sort of god.
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依家會係一個好時機
確保佢係可以同我哋共存嘅神明
確保佢係可以同我哋共存嘅神明
14:15
Now would be a good time
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14:17
to make sure it's a god we can live with.
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好多謝你哋
14:20
Thank you very much.
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（掌聲）
14:21
(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Sam Harris - Neuroscientist, philosopherSam Harris's work focuses on how our growing understanding of ourselves and the world is changing our sense of how we should live.
Why you should listen
Sam Harris is the author of five New York Times bestsellers. His books include The End of Faith, Letter to a Christian Nation, The Moral Landscape, Free Will, Lying, Waking Up and Islam and the Future of Tolerance (with Maajid Nawaz). The End of Faith won the 2005 PEN Award for Nonfiction. Harris's writing and public lectures cover a wide range of topics -- neuroscience, moral philosophy, religion, spirituality, violence, human reasoning -- but generally focus on how a growing understanding of ourselves and the world is changing our sense of how we should live.
Harris's work has been published in more than 20 languages and has been discussed in the New York Times, Time, Scientific American, Nature, Newsweek, Rolling Stone and many other journals. He has written for the New York Times, the Los Angeles Times, The Economist, The Times (London), the Boston Globe, The Atlantic, The Annals of Neurology and elsewhere. Harris also regularly hosts a popular podcast.
Harris received a degree in philosophy from Stanford University and a Ph.D. in neuroscience from UCLA.
Sam Harris | Speaker | TED.com