TED2008
Susan Blackmore: Memes and "temes"
Susan Blackmore o memima i "temima"
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Susan Blackmore istražuje meme: ideje koje se samorepliciraju iz mozga u drugi mozak, poput virusa. Donosi odvažnu tvrdnju: Čovječanstvo je stvorilo novu vrstu mema, tem, koja se širi putem tehnologije -- i smišlja načine da bi se održala živom.
Susan Blackmore - Memeticist
Susan Blackmore studies memes -- those self-replicating "life forms" that spread themselves via human consciousness. We're now headed, she believes, toward a new form of meme, spread by the technology we've created. Full bio
Susan Blackmore studies memes -- those self-replicating "life forms" that spread themselves via human consciousness. We're now headed, she believes, toward a new form of meme, spread by the technology we've created. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:18
Cultural evolution is a dangerous child
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Kulturna evolucija je opasno dijete
00:21
for any species to let loose on its planet.
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za pustiti na svom planetu.
00:24
By the time you realize what's happening, the child is a toddler,
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Dok shvatimo što se događa, dijete odraste
00:28
up and causing havoc, and it's too late to put it back.
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stvara kaos, i prekasno je za vratiti ga.
00:34
We humans are Earth's Pandoran species.
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Mi ljudi smo Zemljina Pandorina vrsta.
00:37
We're the ones who let the second replicator out of its box,
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Mi smo pustili drugog replikatora iz kutije,
00:42
and we can't push it back in.
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i ne možemo ga vratiti unutra.
00:44
We're seeing the consequences all around us.
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Vidimo posljedice svugdje oko nas.
00:48
Now that, I suggest, is the view that
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To je pogled koji
00:52
comes out of taking memetics seriously.
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slijedi iz ozbiljnog shvaćanja memetike.
00:54
And it gives us a new way of thinking about
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I pruža nam novi način razmišljanja o
00:56
not only what's going on on our planet,
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zbivanju ne samo na našem planetu,
00:58
but what might be going on elsewhere in the cosmos.
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nego i onom što bi se moglo događati drugdje u svemiru.
01:01
So first of all, I'd like to say something about memetics
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Zato bih najprije željela reći nešto o memetici
01:04
and the theory of memes,
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i teoriji o memima,
01:06
and secondly, how this might answer questions about who's out there,
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a potom bi tako mogli odgovoriti na pitanje je li netko vani
01:11
if indeed anyone is.
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ako netko jest.
01:14
So, memetics:
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Dakle, memetika.
01:16
memetics is founded on the principle of Universal Darwinism.
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Memetika se temelji na principu univerzalnog darvinizma.
01:20
Darwin had this amazing idea.
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Darwin je imao fascinantnu ideju.
01:23
Indeed, some people say
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Zapravo, neki ljudi kažu
01:25
it's the best idea anybody ever had.
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najbolju ideju koje se itko ikada sjetio.
01:28
Isn't that a wonderful thought, that there could be such a thing
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Nije li to predivna pomisao, da postoji nešto kao
01:32
as a best idea anybody ever had?
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najbolja ideja koje se itko ikada sjetio?
01:34
Do you think there could?
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Mislite da postoji?
01:35
Audience: No.
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Publika: Ne.
01:36
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
01:37
Susan Blackmore: Someone says no, very loudly, from over there.
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Netko je rekao ne..
01:39
Well, I say yes, and if there is, I give the prize to Darwin.
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Pa, ja kažem da, i da postoji, dala bih nagradu Darwinu.
01:43
Why?
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Zašto?
01:45
Because the idea was so simple,
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Jer je ideja bila tako jednostavna,
01:48
and yet it explains all design in the universe.
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a objašnjava sav dizajn u svemiru.
01:54
I would say not just biological design,
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Rekla bih ne samo biološki,
01:56
but all of the design that we think of as human design.
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već sav dizajn koji smatramo ljudskim dizajnom.
01:58
It's all just the same thing happening.
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To je sve jedna te ista stvar.
02:00
What did Darwin say?
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Što je Darwin rekao?
02:02
I know you know the idea, natural selection,
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Znam da poznajete ideju - prirodna selekcija,
02:04
but let me just paraphrase "The Origin of Species," 1859,
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ali dopustite mi da parafraziram "Porijeklo vrsta", 1859.
02:09
in a few sentences.
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u nekoliko rečenica.
02:11
What Darwin said was something like this:
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Darwin je rekao nešto poput ovoga --
02:14
if you have creatures that vary, and that can't be doubted --
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ako imate bića koja se razlikuju, a to je nesumljivo --
02:18
I've been to the Galapagos, and I've measured the size of the beaks
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bio sam na Galapagosu i mjerio veličine kljunova
02:21
and the size of the turtle shells and so on, and so on.
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i veličine oklopa kornjača, itd, itd.
02:23
And 100 pages later.
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I 100 stranica poslije --
02:25
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
02:27
And if there is a struggle for life,
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I ako postoji borba za život,
02:31
such that nearly all of these creatures die --
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takva da gotovo sva ta bića uginu --
02:34
and this can't be doubted, I've read Malthus
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a ovo je nesumljivo, pročitao sam Malthusa
02:37
and I've calculated how long it would take for elephants
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i izračunao koliko bi trebalo slonovima
02:39
to cover the whole world if they bred unrestricted, and so on and so on.
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da prekriju Svijet neograničenim razmnožavanjem, itd itd.
02:42
And another 100 pages later.
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I još 100 stranica poslije.
02:46
And if the very few that survive pass onto their offspring
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I ako nekolicina koji prežive prenesu na potomke
02:51
whatever it was that helped them survive,
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štogod im je pomoglo da prežive,
02:54
then those offspring must be better adapted
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onda ti potomci moraju biti bolje prilagođeni
02:56
to the circumstances in which all this happened
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okolnostima u kojima se to zbivalo
02:58
than their parents were.
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nego njihovi roditelji.
03:01
You see the idea?
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Shvaćate ideju?
03:03
If, if, if, then.
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Ako, ako, ako, onda.
03:05
He had no concept of the idea of an algorithm,
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On nije znao za ideju algoritma.
03:07
but that's what he described in that book,
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Ali to je ono što je opisao u toj knjizi,
03:10
and this is what we now know as the evolutionary algorithm.
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i to je ono što nazivamo evolucijskim algoritmom.
03:13
The principle is you just need those three things --
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Princip je da su potrebne te tri stvari --
03:17
variation, selection and heredity.
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varijacija, selekcija i nasljednost.
03:20
And as Dan Dennett puts it, if you have those,
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I kako bi Dan Dennett rekao, ako njih imaš
03:24
then you must get evolution.
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onda moraš dobiti evoluciju.
03:26
Or design out of chaos, without the aid of mind.
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Ili dizajn iz kaosa bez pomoći uma.
03:31
There's one word I love on that slide.
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Jednu riječ s tog slajda volim.
03:33
What do you think my favorite word is?
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Što mislite, koja je to riječ?
03:35
Audience: Chaos.
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Publika: Kaos.
03:36
SB: Chaos? No. What? Mind? No.
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Kaos? Ne. Um? Ne.
03:39
Audience: Without.
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Publika: Bez.
03:40
SB: No, not without.
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Nije bez.
03:41
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
03:42
You try them all in order: Mmm...?
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Pokušajte sve po redu: Mmm... ?
03:44
Audience: Must.
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Publika: Mora.
03:45
SB: Must, at must. Must, must.
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Mora, konačno. Mora, mora.
03:49
This is what makes it so amazing.
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To je ono što to čini tako zadivljujućim.
03:51
You don't need a designer,
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Ne trebate stvoritelja,
03:54
or a plan, or foresight, or anything else.
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ili plan, ili predumišljaj ili išta drugo.
03:57
If there's something that is copied with variation
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Ako postoji nešto što se kopira s varijacijom
04:00
and it's selected, then you must get design appearing out of nowhere.
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i to je odabrano, onda morate dobiti dizajn iz ničega.
04:04
You can't stop it.
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Ne možete to zaustaviti.
04:06
Must is my favorite word there.
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"Mora" je moja najdraža riječ tamo.
04:11
Now, what's this to do with memes?
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Kakve to ima veze s memima?
04:13
Well, the principle here applies to anything
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Princip se primjenjuje na bilo što
04:18
that is copied with variation and selection.
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što se kopira varijacijom i selekcijom.
04:19
We're so used to thinking in terms of biology,
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Naviknuti smo na razmišljanje u terminima biologije,
04:22
we think about genes this way.
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tako razmišljamo o genima.
04:24
Darwin didn't, of course; he didn't know about genes.
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Darwin, dakako, nije ni znao za gene.
04:27
He talked mostly about animals and plants,
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Uglavnom je pričao o životinjama i biljkama,
04:29
but also about languages evolving and becoming extinct.
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ali i o jezicima kako evoluiraju i izumiru.
04:32
But the principle of Universal Darwinism
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Ali princip univerzalnog darvinizma
04:34
is that any information that is varied and selected
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je da će bilo koja informacija koja varira i odabire se
04:38
will produce design.
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stvoriti dizajn.
04:40
And this is what Richard Dawkins was on about
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To je ono o čemu je Richard Dawkins pričao
04:42
in his 1976 bestseller, "The Selfish Gene."
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u svom bestselleru iz 1976, "Sebični gen".
04:45
The information that is copied, he called the replicator.
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Informacija koja se kopira, nju je zvao replikatorom.
04:49
It selfishly copies.
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Sebično se kopira.
04:51
Not meaning it kind of sits around inside cells going, "I want to get copied."
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Ne u smislu da leži unutar stanica i govori, "Želim se kopirati."
04:55
But that it will get copied if it can,
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Nego da će se kopirati ako može,
04:57
regardless of the consequences.
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bez obzira na posljedice.
05:00
It doesn't care about the consequences because it can't,
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Ne mari za posljedice jer nije sposobna,
05:03
because it's just information being copied.
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jer je to samo informacija.
05:06
And he wanted to get away
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I želio se odmaknuti
05:07
from everybody thinking all the time about genes,
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od svih koji su razmišljali samo o genima,
05:10
and so he said, "Is there another replicator out there on the planet?"
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rekao je, "Postoji li još replikatora na ovom planetu?"
05:13
Ah, yes, there is.
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Ah, da, postoji.
05:15
Look around you -- here will do, in this room.
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Pogledajte oko sebe, u ovoj sobi.
05:18
All around us, still clumsily drifting about
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Svugdje oko nas, nespretno se valja
05:21
in its primeval soup of culture, is another replicator.
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u kulturnoj prajuhi, je drugi replikator.
05:24
Information that we copy from person to person, by imitation,
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Informacija koju kopiramo od osobe do osobe imitacijom,
05:29
by language, by talking, by telling stories,
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jezikom, govorom, pričanjem priča,
05:31
by wearing clothes, by doing things.
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nošenjem odjeće, radeći stvari.
05:34
This is information copied with variation and selection.
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To je informacija kopirana s varijacijom i selekcijom.
05:39
This is design process going on.
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To je proces dizajna koji se zbiva.
05:42
He wanted a name for the new replicator.
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Želio je ime za novi replikator.
05:45
So, he took the Greek word "mimeme," which means that which is imitated.
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Pa je uzeo grču riječ "mimeme", što znači "ono što je imitirano".
05:49
Remember that, that's the core definition:
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To je ključna definicija.
05:52
that which is imitated.
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Ono što se imitira.
05:53
And abbreviated it to meme, just because it sounds good
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I skratio to na mem, jer zvuči dobro
05:56
and made a good meme, an effective spreading meme.
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i stvorio dobar mem, efektivni šireći mem.
05:59
So that's how the idea came about.
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Znači tako je ideja nastala.
06:03
It's important to stick with that definition.
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Važno je držati se te definicije.
06:06
The whole science of memetics is much maligned,
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Cijela znanost memetike je omražena,
06:10
much misunderstood, much feared.
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krivo shvaćena i pribojavana.
06:13
But a lot of these problems can be avoided
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Ali mnogo tih problema možemo izbjeći
06:16
by remembering the definition.
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prisjećajući se definicije.
06:18
A meme is not equivalent to an idea.
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Mem nije ideja.
06:20
It's not an idea. It's not equivalent to anything else, really.
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Nije ideja, nije ekvivalent ničem drugom.
06:22
Stick with the definition.
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Držite se definicije.
06:24
It's that which is imitated,
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To je ono što se imitira.
06:26
or information which is copied from person to person.
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Ili informacija koja je kopirana od osobe do osobe.
06:30
So, let's see some memes.
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Pogledajmo memove.
06:31
Well, you sir, you've got those glasses hung around your neck
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Vi, imate naočale obješene oko vrata
06:34
in that particularly fetching way.
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na posebno uočljiv način.
06:36
I wonder whether you invented that idea for yourself,
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Jeste li smislili tu ideju sami,
06:38
or copied it from someone else?
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ili ste je kopirali od nekog?
06:40
If you copied it from someone else, it's a meme.
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Ako ste je kopirali od nekog, to je mem.
06:43
And what about, oh, I can't see any interesting memes here.
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Ne vidim nikakve zanimljive meme ovdje.
06:46
All right everyone, who's got some interesting memes for me?
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Tko ima zanimljive meme za mene?
06:49
Oh, well, your earrings,
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Vaše naušnice,
06:51
I don't suppose you invented the idea of earrings.
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Niste izmislili ideju naušnica.
06:53
You probably went out and bought them.
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Vjerojatno ste ih kupili.
06:55
There are plenty more in the shops.
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Ima ih još mnogo u trgovinama.
06:57
That's something that's passed on from person to person.
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To se prenosi sa osobe na osobu.
06:59
All the stories that we're telling -- well, of course,
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Sve priče koje pričamo, pa naravno,
07:02
TED is a great meme-fest, masses of memes.
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TED je sjajan festival mema, masa mema.
07:06
The way to think about memes, though,
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Način na koji razmišljamo o memima
07:08
is to think, why do they spread?
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je, zašto se šire?
07:10
They're selfish information, they will get copied, if they can.
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Oni su sebična informacija, kopirat će se ako mogu.
07:14
But some of them will be copied because they're good,
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Ali neki od njih će se kopirati jer su dobri,
07:17
or true, or useful, or beautiful.
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ili istiniti, ili korisni, ili prekrasni.
07:19
Some of them will be copied even though they're not.
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Neki od njih će se kopirati iako nisu.
07:21
Some, it's quite hard to tell why.
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Za neke je teško reći zašto.
07:24
There's one particular curious meme which I rather enjoy.
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Ima jedan meme u kojem uživam.
07:27
And I'm glad to say, as I expected, I found it when I came here,
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I, očekivano, pronašla sam ga kad sam došla ovdje,
07:30
and I'm sure all of you found it, too.
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sigurna sam da ste ga svi pronašli.
07:32
You go to your nice, posh, international hotel somewhere,
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Idete u svoj lijepi internacionalni hotel,
07:36
and you come in and you put down your clothes
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uđete unutra i skinete svoju odjeću
07:38
and you go to the bathroom, and what do you see?
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uđete u kupaonicu, i što vidite?
07:41
Audience: Bathroom soap.
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Publika: Kupaonski sapun.
07:42
SB: Pardon?
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Oprostite?
07:43
Audience: Soap.
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Publika: Sapun.
07:44
SB: Soap, yeah. What else do you see?
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Sapun, da. Što još vidite?
07:46
Audience: (Inaudible)
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Publika: (Nečujno)
07:47
SB: Mmm mmm.
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Mmm mmm.
07:48
Audience: Sink, toilet!
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Publika: Umivaonik, zahod!
07:49
SB: Sink, toilet, yes, these are all memes, they're all memes,
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Umivaonik, zahod, da, to su sve memi,
07:51
but they're sort of useful ones, and then there's this one.
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ali oni su recimo korisni, i onda dođe ovaj.
07:54
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
07:58
What is this one doing?
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Čemu ovaj služi?
08:00
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
08:01
This has spread all over the world.
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Ovaj se proširio svuda po svijetu.
08:03
It's not surprising that you all found it
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Nije čudno što ste ga svi pronašli
08:05
when you arrived in your bathrooms here.
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kada ste ušli u kupaonice.
08:07
But I took this photograph in a toilet at the back of a tent
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Uslikala sam ovu fotografiju u zahodu iza šatora
08:12
in the eco-camp in the jungle in Assam.
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u eko-kampu u džungli u Assamu.
08:14
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
08:16
Who folded that thing up there, and why?
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Tko je zamotao tu stvar, i zašto?
08:19
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
08:20
Some people get carried away.
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Neki ljudi pretjeruju.
08:22
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
08:26
Other people are just lazy and make mistakes.
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Drugi su samo lijeni i rade greške.
08:29
Some hotels exploit the opportunity to put even more memes
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Neki hoteli stvore nove memove
08:32
with a little sticker.
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s naljepnicom.
08:34
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
08:35
What is this all about?
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O čemu se ovdje radi?
08:37
I suppose it's there to tell you that somebody's
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Pretpostavljam da žele reći kako je netko
08:39
cleaned the place, and it's all lovely.
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sve očistio.
08:41
And you know, actually, all it tells you is that another person
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Ali zapravo vam govori da je ta osoba
08:44
has potentially spread germs from place to place.
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potencijalno proširila bakterije s mjesta na mjesto.
08:47
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
08:48
So, think of it this way.
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Gledajte na to ovako.
08:50
Imagine a world full of brains
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Zamislite svijet pun mozgova.
08:52
and far more memes than can possibly find homes.
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i više memova nego što imaju domova.
08:55
The memes are all trying to get copied --
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Memovi se pokušavaju kopirati,
08:58
trying, in inverted commas -- i.e.,
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pokušavaju, tj.
09:01
that's the shorthand for, if they can get copied, they will.
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ako se mogu kopirati onda hoće.
09:04
They're using you and me as their propagating, copying machinery,
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Iskorištavaju vas i mene kao svoju kopirajuću mašineriju,
09:10
and we are the meme machines.
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mi smo strojevi za memove.
09:13
Now, why is this important?
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Zašto je ovo važno?
09:15
Why is this useful, or what does it tell us?
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Zašto je ovo korisno, ili što nam to govori?
09:17
It gives us a completely new view of human origins
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Daje nam novi pogled na ljudsku genezu
09:21
and what it means to be human,
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i što znači biti čovjek.
09:22
all conventional theories of cultural evolution,
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Sve konvencionalne teorije kulturne evolucije,
09:26
of the origin of humans,
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porijekla ljudi,
09:28
and what makes us so different from other species.
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i što nas čini drukčijim od ostalih vrsta.
09:32
All other theories explaining the big brain, and language, and tool use
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Teorije koje govore o velikom mozgu, jeziku i uporabi alata
09:34
and all these things that make us unique,
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i sve te stvari koje nas čine posebnima,
09:36
are based upon genes.
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se temelje na genima.
09:39
Language must have been useful for the genes.
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Jezik je morao biti koristan genima.
09:42
Tool use must have enhanced our survival, mating and so on.
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Oruđa su olakšala preživljavanje, razmnožavanje itd.
09:45
It always comes back, as Richard Dawkins complained
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Uvijek se sve vraća, kako se žalio Richard Dawkins
09:48
all that long time ago, it always comes back to genes.
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uvijek se sve vraća na gene.
09:51
The point of memetics is to say, "Oh no, it doesn't."
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Bit memetike je reći, "O, ne vraća se."
09:55
There are two replicators now on this planet.
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Postoje dva replikatora na ovom planetu.
09:58
From the moment that our ancestors,
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Od trenutka kada su naši preci,
10:01
perhaps two and a half million years ago or so,
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prije nekih dva i pol milijuna godina,
10:03
began imitating, there was a new copying process.
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počeli imitirati, nastao je novi proces kopiranja.
10:07
Copying with variation and selection.
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Kopiranja s varijacijom i selekcijom.
10:09
A new replicator was let loose, and it could never be --
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Novi replikator je oslobođen, i --
10:14
right from the start -- it could never be
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od početka, nije moglo biti
10:15
that human beings who let loose this new creature,
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da ljudska bića koja su pustila ovo novo biće,
10:20
could just copy the useful, beautiful, true things,
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mogu kopirati samo korisne, lijepe, istinite stvari,
10:23
and not copy the other things.
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a ne kopirati ostale stvari.
10:25
While their brains were having an advantage from being able to copy --
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Njihovi mozgovi su imali prednost od kopiranja --
10:28
lighting fires, keeping fires going, new techniques of hunting,
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paljenja vatre, održavanja vatre, novih tehnika lova,
10:33
these kinds of things --
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takvih vrsta stvari --
10:35
inevitably they were also copying putting feathers in their hair,
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neizbježno su kopirali i stavljanje pera u kosu,
10:38
or wearing strange clothes, or painting their faces,
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ili nošenje čudne odjeće, ili bojanja lica,
10:40
or whatever.
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ili bilo što.
10:41
So, you get an arms race between the genes
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Dobijemo utrku u naoružavanju između gena
10:45
which are trying to get the humans to have small economical brains
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koji pokušavaju ljudima dati male ekonomične mozgove
10:49
and not waste their time copying all this stuff,
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i ne tratiti vrijeme kopirajući sve ove stvari,
10:51
and the memes themselves, like the sounds that people made and copied --
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i mema, poput zvukova koje su ljudi proizvodili i kopirali --
10:56
in other words, what turned out to be language --
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drugim riječima, onog što je na kraju postalo jezik --
10:58
competing to get the brains to get bigger and bigger.
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natječući se da bi povećali mozgove više i više.
11:01
So, the big brain, on this theory, is driven by the memes.
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Dakle veliki mozak je u ovoj teoriji pogonjen memima.
11:05
This is why, in "The Meme Machine," I called it memetic drive.
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Zato sam ga, u "Stroj za memove", nazvala memetskim pogonom.
11:09
As the memes evolve, as they inevitably must,
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Kako memi evoluiraju, kao što neizbježno moraju,
11:12
they drive a bigger brain that is better at copying the memes
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pogone veći mozak koji je bolji u kopiranju mema
11:16
that are doing the driving.
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koji ga pogone.
11:18
This is why we've ended up with such peculiar brains,
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Zato imamo tako čudne mozgove,
11:22
that we like religion, and music, and art.
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da nam se sviđaju religije, glazba, i umjetnost.
11:25
Language is a parasite that we've adapted to,
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Jezik je parazit kojem smo se prilagodili,
11:28
not something that was there originally for our genes,
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a ne nešto stvoreno za gene,
11:30
on this view.
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iz ovog gledišta.
11:32
And like most parasites, it can begin dangerous,
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I poput većine parazita može započeti kao opasan,
11:35
but then it coevolves and adapts,
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ali onda ko-evoluira i adaptira se
11:38
and we end up with a symbiotic relationship
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i na kraju dolazimo do simbiotske veze
11:40
with this new parasite.
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s ovim novim parazitom.
11:41
And so, from our perspective,
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I zato iz naše perspektive,
11:43
we don't realize that that's how it began.
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ne uviđamo da je tako počelo.
11:46
So, this is a view of what humans are.
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To je pogled na ono što ljudi jesu.
11:49
All other species on this planet are gene machines only,
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Ostale vrste na planetu su isključivo genetski strojevi,
11:52
they don't imitate at all well, hardly at all.
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ne imitiraju dobro, ako uopće.
11:55
We alone are gene machines and meme machines as well.
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Jedino mi smo i genski i memski strojevi.
12:00
The memes took a gene machine and turned it into a meme machine.
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Memi su uzeli genski stroj i pretvorili ga u memski stroj.
12:04
But that's not all.
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Ali to nije sve.
12:06
We have a new kind of memes now.
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Sada imamo novu vrstu mema.
12:09
I've been wondering for a long time,
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Dugo sam se propitkivala,
12:10
since I've been thinking about memes a lot,
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s obzirom da sam puno razmišljala o memima,
12:12
is there a difference between the memes that we copy --
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postoji li razlika između mema koje mi kopiramo --
12:14
the words we speak to each other,
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riječi koje pričamo jedni drugima,
12:16
the gestures we copy, the human things --
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običaja koje kopiramo, ljudskim stvarima --
12:18
and all these technological things around us?
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i svih ovih tehnoloških stvari uokolo nas?
12:20
I have always, until now, called them all memes,
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Uvijek sam ih, do sada, sve nazivala memima,
12:24
but I do honestly think now
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ali sada iskreno smatram
12:27
we need a new word for technological memes.
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kako trebamo novu riječ za tehnološke meme.
12:30
Let's call them techno-memes or temes.
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Nazovimo ih tehnomemi ili temi.
12:33
Because the processes are getting different.
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Zato što se procesi mijenjaju.
12:37
We began, perhaps 5,000 years ago, with writing.
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Počeli smo, prije 5000 godina, s pisanjem.
12:40
We put the storage of memes out there on a clay tablet,
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Pohranjivali smo meme na glinenu ploču,
12:48
but in order to get true temes and true teme machines,
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kako bi dobili prave temske strojeve,
12:50
you need to get the variation, the selection and the copying,
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trebamo varijaciju, selekciju i kopiranje,
12:53
all done outside of humans.
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izvršene bez ljudi.
12:55
And we're getting there.
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Stižemo ovdje.
12:57
We're at this extraordinary point where we're nearly there,
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Došli smo do točke gdje smo zamalo tu,
12:59
that there are machines like that.
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gdje postoje takvi strojevi.
13:01
And indeed, in the short time I've already been at TED,
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I stvarno, u ovo malo vremena što sam na TED-u,
13:03
I see we're even closer than I thought we were before.
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vidim da smo bliže nego što sam ikad mislila.
13:05
So actually, now the temes are forcing our brains
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Sada temi prisiljavaju naše mozgove
13:11
to become more like teme machines.
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da postanu sličniji temskim strojevima.
13:13
Our children are growing up very quickly learning to read,
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Naša djeca odrastaju jako brzo učeći čitati,
13:16
learning to use machinery.
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učeći koristiti strojeve.
13:18
We're going to have all kinds of implants,
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Imat ćemo razne implantanate,
13:19
drugs that force us to stay awake all the time.
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droge koja nas prisiljavaju da budemo budni.
13:22
We'll think we're choosing these things,
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Mislit ćemo da mi biramo te stvari,
13:24
but the temes are making us do it.
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ali temi nas na to tjeraju.
13:28
So, we're at this cusp now
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Na granici smo
13:29
of having a third replicator on our planet.
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dolaska trećeg replikatora na planet.
13:34
Now, what about what else is going on out there in the universe?
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Što u vezi zbivanja vani u svemiru?
13:39
Is there anyone else out there?
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Ima li nekoga tamo?
13:41
People have been asking this question for a long time.
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Ljudi su se propitkivali ovim dugo vremena.
13:44
We've been asking it here at TED already.
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Propitkivali smo se i ovdje na TED-u.
13:46
In 1961, Frank Drake made his famous equation,
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1961., Frank Drake je stvorio poznatu jednadžbu,
13:50
but I think he concentrated on the wrong things.
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ali se koncentrirao na krive stvari.
13:52
It's been very productive, that equation.
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Bila je vrlo produktivna.
13:54
He wanted to estimate N,
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Želio je procijeniti N,
13:56
the number of communicative civilizations out there in our galaxy,
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broj komunikativnih civilizacija u našoj galaksiji.
14:00
and he included in there the rate of star formation,
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I uključio je brzinu stvaranja zvijezda,
14:04
the rate of planets, but crucially, intelligence.
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faktor planeta, i krucijalno, inteligenciju.
14:08
I think that's the wrong way to think about it.
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Mislim da je to krivi način razmišljanja o tome.
14:12
Intelligence appears all over the place, in all kinds of guises.
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Inteligencija se pojavljuje posvuda, u svakakvim krinkama.
14:15
Human intelligence is only one kind of a thing.
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Ljudska inteligencija je samo jedna vrsta.
14:17
But what's really important is the replicators you have
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Ali stvarno bitni su replikatori koje imate
14:20
and the levels of replicators, one feeding on the one before.
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i razine replikatora, koji se hrane onim prethodnim.
14:24
So, I would suggest that we don't think intelligence,
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Sugerirala bih da ne razmišljamo o inteligenciji,
14:29
we think replicators.
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nego o replikatorima.
14:31
And on that basis, I've suggested a different kind of equation.
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Na toj osnovi, predložila sam drukčiju vrstu jednadžbe.
14:34
A very simple equation.
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Vrlu jednostavnu jednadžbu.
14:36
N, the same thing,
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N, ista stvar.
14:38
the number of communicative civilizations out there
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broj komunikativnih civilizacija,
14:41
[that] we might expect in our galaxy.
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koje možemo očekivati u galaksiji.
14:43
Just start with the number of planets there are in our galaxy.
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Samo počnimo s brojem planeta koji su u našoj galaksiji.
14:47
The fraction of those which get a first replicator.
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Udio onih koji dobiju prvi replikator.
14:51
The fraction of those that get the second replicator.
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Udio onih koje dobiju drugi replikator.
14:55
The fraction of those that get the third replicator.
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Udio onih koje dobiju treći replikator.
14:58
Because it's only the third replicator that's going to reach out --
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Zato što će jedino treći replikator posegnuti --
15:01
sending information, sending probes, getting out there,
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slati informacije, slati sonde, izlaziti van,
15:04
and communicating with anywhere else.
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i komunicirati sa bilo kime.
15:06
OK, so if we take that equation,
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Ako uzmemo tu jednadžbu,
15:09
why haven't we heard from anybody out there?
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zašto nismo čuli ništa od nikoga vani?
15:14
Because every step is dangerous.
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Zato što je svaki korak opasan.
15:18
Getting a new replicator is dangerous.
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Nastanak novog replikatora je opasan.
15:21
You can pull through, we have pulled through,
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Možemo se provući, mi smo se provukli,
15:23
but it's dangerous.
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ali je opasno.
15:25
Take the first step, as soon as life appeared on this earth.
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Uzmimo prvi korak, čim se život pojavio na zemlji.
15:28
We may take the Gaian view.
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Uzmimo Gajanski pogled.
15:30
I loved Peter Ward's talk yesterday -- it's not Gaian all the time.
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Svidio mi se Peter Wardov govor jučer -- nije Gajanski cijelo vrijeme.
15:33
Actually, life forms produce things that kill themselves.
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Zapravo, život stvara stvari koje se same ubijaju.
15:36
Well, we did pull through on this planet.
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Pa, mi se jesmo provukli na ovom planetu.
15:39
But then, a long time later, billions of years later,
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Ali onda, mnogo kasnije, milijarde godina kasnije,
15:41
we got the second replicator, the memes.
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dobili smo drugi replikator, meme.
15:44
That was dangerous, all right.
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To je bilo stvarno opasno.
15:46
Think of the big brain.
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Razmislite o velikom mozgu.
15:48
How many mothers do we have here?
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Koliko majki ovdje imamo?
15:51
You know all about big brains.
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Znate sve o velikim mozgovima.
15:53
They are dangerous to give birth to,
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Opasni su za rađanje.
15:55
are agonizing to give birth to.
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Grozni su za rađanje.
15:57
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
15:59
My cat gave birth to four kittens, purring all the time.
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Moja mačka je rodila predući cijelo vrijeme.
16:01
Ah, mm -- slightly different.
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Malo drukčije.
16:03
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
16:05
But not only is it painful, it kills lots of babies,
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Ali nije samo bolno, ubija mnogo djece,
16:08
it kills lots of mothers,
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ubija mnogo majki,
16:10
and it's very expensive to produce.
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i vrlo skupo za proizvesti.
16:12
The genes are forced into producing all this myelin,
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Geni su prisiljeni proizvoditi sav taj mijelin,
16:14
all the fat to myelinate the brain.
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svu tu mast kako bi mijelinirali mozak.
16:16
Do you know, sitting here,
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Sjedeći ovdje,
16:18
your brain is using about 20 percent of your body's energy output
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vaš mozak koristi oko 20 posto vaše tjelesne energije
16:22
for two percent of your body weight?
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za 2 posto vaše tjelesne mase.
16:24
It's a really expensive organ to run.
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To je skupi organ za korištenje.
16:26
Why? Because it's producing the memes.
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Zašto? Zato jer stvara meme.
16:28
Now, it could have killed us off. It could have killed us off,
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Mogao nas je pobiti,
16:32
and maybe it nearly did, but you see, we don't know.
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i možda skoro jest, ali ne znamo.
16:34
But maybe it nearly did.
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Ali možda skoro jest.
16:36
Has it been tried before?
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Je li pokušano prije?
16:37
What about all those other species?
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Što sa svim ostalim vrstama?
16:39
Louise Leakey talked yesterday
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Louis Leakey je pričala jučer
16:41
about how we're the only one in this branch left.
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o tome kako smo jedini preostali u ovoj grani.
16:44
What happened to the others?
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Što se dogodilo drugima?
16:46
Could it be that this experiment in imitation,
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Je li moguće da je ovaj eksperiment imitacije,
16:48
this experiment in a second replicator,
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ovaj eksperiment drugog replikatora,
16:50
is dangerous enough to kill people off?
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dovoljno opasan da pobije ljude?
16:54
Well, we did pull through, and we adapted.
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Pa, provukli smo se, i prilagodili smo se.
16:56
But now, we're hitting, as I've just described,
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Ali sada se približavamo, kao što sam opisala,
16:59
we're hitting the third replicator point.
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točki trećeg replikatora.
17:01
And this is even more dangerous --
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I ovo je još opasnije --
17:04
well, it's dangerous again.
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ponovno je opasno.
17:06
Why? Because the temes are selfish replicators
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Zašto? Zato što su temi sebični replikatori.
17:10
and they don't care about us, or our planet, or anything else.
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i ne mare za nas, ili naš planet, ili išta drugo.
17:13
They're just information, why would they?
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Oni su samo informacija -- zašto bi?
17:17
They are using us to suck up the planet's resources
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Iskorištavaju nas kako bi potrošili resurse planeta
17:19
to produce more computers,
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za proizvodnju više računala,
17:21
and more of all these amazing things we're hearing about here at TED.
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i više ovih fascinantnih stvari o kojima čujemo na TED-u.
17:24
Don't think, "Oh, we created the Internet for our own benefit."
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Nemojte misliti, "Stvorili smo Internet za našu korist."
17:28
That's how it seems to us.
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Tako nam se čini.
17:30
Think, temes spreading because they must.
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Razmišljajte o temima kako se šire jer moraju.
17:34
We are the old machines.
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Mi smo stari strojevi.
17:36
Now, are we going to pull through?
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Hoćemo li se provući?
17:38
What's going to happen?
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Što će se dogoditi?
17:40
What does it mean to pull through?
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Što znači provući se?
17:42
Well, there are kind of two ways of pulling through.
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Postoje dva načina provlačenja.
17:45
One that is obviously happening all around us now,
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Jedan je onaj koji se upravo događa oko nas,
17:47
is that the temes turn us into teme machines,
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da nas temi pretvore u temske strojeve,
17:51
with these implants, with the drugs,
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s tim implatantima, s drogama,
17:53
with us merging with the technology.
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s nama kako se stapamo s tehnologijom.
17:56
And why would they do that?
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Zašto bi oni to učinili?
17:58
Because we are self-replicating.
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Zato jer se mi samorepliciramo.
18:00
We have babies.
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Imamo djecu.
18:02
We make new ones, and so it's convenient to piggyback on us,
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Radimo novu, pa je zato prikladno krpati nam se
18:05
because we're not yet at the stage on this planet
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zato što još nismo na toj razini na ovom planetu
18:09
where the other option is viable.
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gdje je druga opcija moguća.
18:11
Although it's closer, I heard this morning,
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Iako je bliže, čula sam jutros,
18:13
it's closer than I thought it was.
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Bliže je nego što sam mislila da jest.
18:15
Where the teme machines themselves will replicate themselves.
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Onda kada će se temski strojevi samoreplicirati.
18:18
That way, it wouldn't matter if the planet's climate
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Tada ne bi bilo važno da se klima planeta
18:22
was utterly destabilized,
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potpuno destabilizira,
18:24
and it was no longer possible for humans to live here.
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i da nije moguć ljudski život.
18:26
Because those teme machines, they wouldn't need --
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Jer ti temski strojevi, ne bi trebali --
18:28
they're not squishy, wet, oxygen-breathing,
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nisu sluzavi, mokri, dišući,
18:30
warmth-requiring creatures.
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toplinski organizmi.
18:33
They could carry on without us.
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Mogli bi nastaviti bez nas.
18:35
So, those are the two possibilities.
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Znači, to su dvije mogućnosti.
18:38
The second, I don't think we're that close.
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Druga, ne mislim da smo tako blizu.
18:42
It's coming, but we're not there yet.
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Dolazi, ali nismo još stigli.
18:44
The first, it's coming too.
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Prva također dolazi.
18:46
But the damage that is already being done
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Ali šteta koja se već nanosi
18:49
to the planet is showing us how dangerous the third point is,
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planeti nam pokazuje koliko je treća točka opasna
18:54
that third danger point, getting a third replicator.
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ta treća točka, dolazak trećeg replikatora.
18:58
And will we get through this third danger point,
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Hoćemo li proći treću opasnu točku,
19:00
like we got through the second and like we got through the first?
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kako smo prošli drugu i prvu?
19:04
Maybe we will, maybe we won't.
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Možda hoćemo, možda nećemo.
19:06
I have no idea.
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Ne znam.
19:13
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
19:24
Chris Anderson: That was an incredible talk.
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Chris Anderson: To je bio sjajan govor.
19:26
SB: Thank you. I scared myself.
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Hvala. Preplašila sam sebe.
19:28
CA: (Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Susan Blackmore - MemeticistSusan Blackmore studies memes -- those self-replicating "life forms" that spread themselves via human consciousness. We're now headed, she believes, toward a new form of meme, spread by the technology we've created.
Why you should listen
Susan Blackmore is dedicated to understanding the scientific nature of consciousness. Her latest work centers on the existence of memes -- little bits of knowledge, lore, habit that seem to spread themselves using human brains as mere carriers. She's exploring the existence of a new class of meme, spread by human technology. It's temporarily named the "teme."
She has written about memes, consciousness, and near-death experiences; has appeared on the British Big Brother to discuss the psychology of the participants; and writes for the Guardian UK.
Susan Blackmore | Speaker | TED.com