TED2008
Susan Blackmore: Memes and "temes"
Susan Blackmore 談｢迷因｣與｢技因｣
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Susan Blackmore 研究迷因：構想就像病毒一樣自行由一個腦袋複製到另一個腦袋。她提出一個大膽的新論點：人文產生了一個新種類的迷因：技因，它經由科技傳播 － 並發明各種方法維持自己的生存。
Susan Blackmore - Memeticist
Susan Blackmore studies memes -- those self-replicating "life forms" that spread themselves via human consciousness. We're now headed, she believes, toward a new form of meme, spread by the technology we've created. Full bio
Susan Blackmore studies memes -- those self-replicating "life forms" that spread themselves via human consciousness. We're now headed, she believes, toward a new form of meme, spread by the technology we've created. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:18
Cultural evolution is a dangerous child
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文化的演化是個危險小孩
00:21
for any species to let loose on its planet.
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任何物種如果放任它在星球上。
00:24
By the time you realize what's happening, the child is a toddler,
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等你察覺出了事，小孩已在學步，
00:28
up and causing havoc, and it's too late to put it back.
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四處闖禍，將它帶回已太遲。
00:34
We humans are Earth's Pandoran species.
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我們人類是地球的潘朵拉物種。
00:37
We're the ones who let the second replicator out of its box,
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我們把第二個複製體放出盒子，
00:42
and we can't push it back in.
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而我們無法將它收回。
00:44
We're seeing the consequences all around us.
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我們正看到身邊的後果。
00:48
Now that, I suggest, is the view that
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現在，我認為這個觀點
00:52
comes out of taking memetics seriously.
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是認真看待迷因論而來的。
00:54
And it gives us a new way of thinking about
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它提供我們一個新方法去思考
00:56
not only what's going on on our planet,
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不僅我們星球發生了什麼事，
00:58
but what might be going on elsewhere in the cosmos.
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還有宇宙他處可能有什麼事。
01:01
So first of all, I'd like to say something about memetics
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首先，我要談談迷因論，
01:04
and the theory of memes,
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就是迷因的理論,
01:06
and secondly, how this might answer questions about who's out there,
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其次，談這可能解答外太空有誰，
01:11
if indeed anyone is.
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是否真的有誰。
01:14
So, memetics:
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迷因論。
01:16
memetics is founded on the principle of Universal Darwinism.
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迷因論是根據通用達爾文理論而來的。
01:20
Darwin had this amazing idea.
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達爾文有這個驚奇想法。
01:23
Indeed, some people say
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真的，有人說：
01:25
it's the best idea anybody ever had.
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那是有史以來最好的想法。
01:28
Isn't that a wonderful thought, that there could be such a thing
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那豈不是絕妙的觀點，認為有件事可以是
01:32
as a best idea anybody ever had?
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有史以來最好的想法？
01:34
Do you think there could?
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你認為有可能嗎？
01:35
Audience: No.
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(觀眾：不)
01:36
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
01:37
Susan Blackmore: Someone says no, very loudly, from over there.
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那邊有人很大聲地說：｢不｣。
01:39
Well, I say yes, and if there is, I give the prize to Darwin.
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但我說｢有｣，如果有，我將頒獎給達爾文。
01:43
Why?
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為什麼？
01:45
Because the idea was so simple,
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因為這個想法那麼簡單，
01:48
and yet it explains all design in the universe.
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卻解釋了宇宙的一切設計。
01:54
I would say not just biological design,
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我認為不只是生物的設計，
01:56
but all of the design that we think of as human design.
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還有一切我們認為的人為設計。
01:58
It's all just the same thing happening.
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其發生的原理完全一樣。
02:00
What did Darwin say?
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達爾文說了什麼？
02:02
I know you know the idea, natural selection,
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我想你知道他的想法：｢天擇｣
02:04
but let me just paraphrase "The Origin of Species," 1859,
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讓我用｢物種起源｣， 1859 年版，
02:09
in a few sentences.
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套幾句話解釋一下。
02:11
What Darwin said was something like this:
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達爾文說的就像 －
02:14
if you have creatures that vary, and that can't be doubted --
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如果你有生物的變異，這是無庸置疑的 －
02:18
I've been to the Galapagos, and I've measured the size of the beaks
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我到過加拉巴哥群島，測量過鳥嘴
02:21
and the size of the turtle shells and so on, and so on.
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和龜殼的尺寸等等...
02:23
And 100 pages later.
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翻過 100 頁 －
02:25
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
02:27
And if there is a struggle for life,
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如果有生存競爭，
02:31
such that nearly all of these creatures die --
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使幾乎所有的生物都死亡 －
02:34
and this can't be doubted, I've read Malthus
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這無庸置疑，我讀過馬爾薩斯
02:37
and I've calculated how long it would take for elephants
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我計算過要多少時間會使大象
02:39
to cover the whole world if they bred unrestricted, and so on and so on.
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在不受限制的成長下，充滿整個世界，等等...
02:42
And another 100 pages later.
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再翻過 100 頁。
02:46
And if the very few that survive pass onto their offspring
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如果少數幾個活下來，傳承給子孫
02:51
whatever it was that helped them survive,
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有助它們存活的任何條件，
02:54
then those offspring must be better adapted
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則這些子孫必然比祖先
02:56
to the circumstances in which all this happened
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更能適應發生這一切
02:58
than their parents were.
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的環境情況。
03:01
You see the idea?
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你看到這個想法了嗎？
03:03
If, if, if, then.
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如果、如果、如果，則
03:05
He had no concept of the idea of an algorithm,
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他並沒有運算法的概念。
03:07
but that's what he described in that book,
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但他在書上寫的就是這樣，
03:10
and this is what we now know as the evolutionary algorithm.
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就是現在我們所知的演化運算法。
03:13
The principle is you just need those three things --
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原則上你只需三樣東西 －
03:17
variation, selection and heredity.
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變異、選擇、及遺傳。
03:20
And as Dan Dennett puts it, if you have those,
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就如 Dan Dennett 所說，如果有這些
03:24
then you must get evolution.
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必然會有演化。
03:26
Or design out of chaos, without the aid of mind.
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或：不用心智的輔助，混沌即會產出設計。
03:31
There's one word I love on that slide.
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幻燈片中有個字我很喜歡，
03:33
What do you think my favorite word is?
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你猜我喜歡的是哪個字？
03:35
Audience: Chaos.
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(觀眾：混沌)
03:36
SB: Chaos? No. What? Mind? No.
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｢混沌｣？不是。｢心智｣？不是。
03:39
Audience: Without.
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(觀眾：不用)
03:40
SB: No, not without.
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不是，不是「不用」。
03:41
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
03:42
You try them all in order: Mmm...?
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你們依序再猜：嗯？
03:44
Audience: Must.
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(觀眾：必然)
03:45
SB: Must, at must. Must, must.
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必然、必然、必然、必然。
03:49
This is what makes it so amazing.
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就是它才那麼驚奇。
03:51
You don't need a designer,
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你不需要設計師，
03:54
or a plan, or foresight, or anything else.
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或計畫，或先見、或任何什麼。
03:57
If there's something that is copied with variation
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如果有變異的複製
04:00
and it's selected, then you must get design appearing out of nowhere.
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並被選擇，則無中必然會有設計出現。
04:04
You can't stop it.
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你無法停止它。
04:06
Must is my favorite word there.
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此處，「必然」是我喜歡的字。
04:11
Now, what's this to do with memes?
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而這和迷因有什關係？
04:13
Well, the principle here applies to anything
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嗯，這個原則適用任何情形
04:18
that is copied with variation and selection.
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就是有變異和選擇的複製。
04:19
We're so used to thinking in terms of biology,
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我們太習慣於生物學的觀點，
04:22
we think about genes this way.
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我們以此方式思考基因。
04:24
Darwin didn't, of course; he didn't know about genes.
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達爾文則當然沒有, 他不知道基因。
04:27
He talked mostly about animals and plants,
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他大部分提到動物、植物，
04:29
but also about languages evolving and becoming extinct.
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但也提到語言的演化與滅絕。
04:32
But the principle of Universal Darwinism
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但通用達爾文論的原則
04:34
is that any information that is varied and selected
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是任何有變異及被選擇的資訊
04:38
will produce design.
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都會產生設計。
04:40
And this is what Richard Dawkins was on about
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這也是理察·道金斯在他的
04:42
in his 1976 bestseller, "The Selfish Gene."
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1976 年暢銷書「自私的基因」中談的。
04:45
The information that is copied, he called the replicator.
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被複製的資訊，他叫做複製體。
04:49
It selfishly copies.
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它自私地複製。
04:51
Not meaning it kind of sits around inside cells going, "I want to get copied."
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不是說它躺在細胞裡叫著「我要被複製」。
04:55
But that it will get copied if it can,
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而是只要能夠，它就會被複製，
04:57
regardless of the consequences.
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不論後果如何。
05:00
It doesn't care about the consequences because it can't,
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它不在意後果，因為它無從在意，
05:03
because it's just information being copied.
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因為複製的只是資訊。
05:06
And he wanted to get away
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他想要跳脫，
05:07
from everybody thinking all the time about genes,
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大家總是想到基因，
05:10
and so he said, "Is there another replicator out there on the planet?"
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因此他說：「行星上還有另一個複製體嗎？」
05:13
Ah, yes, there is.
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是的，有的。
05:15
Look around you -- here will do, in this room.
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看看四周，這房間裡就有。
05:18
All around us, still clumsily drifting about
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我們四周，仍拙然浮現著
05:21
in its primeval soup of culture, is another replicator.
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文化原汁的，是另一個複製體。
05:24
Information that we copy from person to person, by imitation,
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經由模仿，資訊在人與人之間複製著，
05:29
by language, by talking, by telling stories,
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經由語言、交談、敍事、
05:31
by wearing clothes, by doing things.
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穿著、行為等。
05:34
This is information copied with variation and selection.
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這是有變異與選擇的資訊複製。
05:39
This is design process going on.
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是進行中的設計過程。
05:42
He wanted a name for the new replicator.
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他要為這新複製體取個新名字。
05:45
So, he took the Greek word "mimeme," which means that which is imitated.
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因此他用希臘字 mimeme，意指「模仿之物」。
05:49
Remember that, that's the core definition:
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記住，這是它的本義。
05:52
that which is imitated.
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指「模仿之物」。
05:53
And abbreviated it to meme, just because it sounds good
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將它簡化為 meme，因為好唸
05:56
and made a good meme, an effective spreading meme.
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而成為好的迷因，有效傳播的迷因。
05:59
So that's how the idea came about.
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這就是此想法的來源。
06:03
It's important to stick with that definition.
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謹守這個定義是重要的。
06:06
The whole science of memetics is much maligned,
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整個迷因論受到太多詆毀，
06:10
much misunderstood, much feared.
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太多誤解，太多憂懼。
06:13
But a lot of these problems can be avoided
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但許多問題可以避免掉，
06:16
by remembering the definition.
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只要記住這個定義。
06:18
A meme is not equivalent to an idea.
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迷因不等於一個想法。
06:20
It's not an idea. It's not equivalent to anything else, really.
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它不是想法，它也不等於任何事,，真的。
06:22
Stick with the definition.
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謹守這個定義。
06:24
It's that which is imitated,
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它是模仿之物。
06:26
or information which is copied from person to person.
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或指在人與人之間複製的資訊。
06:30
So, let's see some memes.
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那麼，讓我們來看一些迷因。
06:31
Well, you sir, you've got those glasses hung around your neck
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先生，你的眼鏡掛在脖子上
06:34
in that particularly fetching way.
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是一種特別的拿取方式。
06:36
I wonder whether you invented that idea for yourself,
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我好奇那是你自己發明的想法，
06:38
or copied it from someone else?
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或複製自別人？
06:40
If you copied it from someone else, it's a meme.
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如果你複製自別人，那就是個迷因。
06:43
And what about, oh, I can't see any interesting memes here.
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還有，這裡我看不到任何有趣的迷因。
06:46
All right everyone, who's got some interesting memes for me?
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各位，誰有有趣的迷因？
06:49
Oh, well, your earrings,
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好，你的耳環，
06:51
I don't suppose you invented the idea of earrings.
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我不認為你發明了耳環的想法。
06:53
You probably went out and bought them.
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或許是你出去買的。
06:55
There are plenty more in the shops.
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店裡有很多。
06:57
That's something that's passed on from person to person.
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這就是在人與人之間傳遞的。
06:59
All the stories that we're telling -- well, of course,
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所有我們說的故事，當然
07:02
TED is a great meme-fest, masses of memes.
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TED 是個大的迷因饗宴，有大量的迷因。
07:06
The way to think about memes, though,
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考慮迷因的一個方式是，
07:08
is to think, why do they spread?
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想想它們為什麼會傳播？
07:10
They're selfish information, they will get copied, if they can.
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它們是自私的資訊，它們盡可能讓人複製。
07:14
But some of them will be copied because they're good,
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有些被複製，因為它們很好、
07:17
or true, or useful, or beautiful.
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真實、有用、或美妙。
07:19
Some of them will be copied even though they're not.
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有些雖不是，也將被複製。
07:21
Some, it's quite hard to tell why.
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有些，很難說明為什麼。
07:24
There's one particular curious meme which I rather enjoy.
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有一種特別好奇的迷因我很欣賞。
07:27
And I'm glad to say, as I expected, I found it when I came here,
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我很高興地說，如預期地我在這裡找到了它，
07:30
and I'm sure all of you found it, too.
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我確定你們也都發現了它。
07:32
You go to your nice, posh, international hotel somewhere,
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你到某處的豪華國際旅館，
07:36
and you come in and you put down your clothes
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進去後，放下你的衣服
07:38
and you go to the bathroom, and what do you see?
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到了浴室，你看到什麼？
07:41
Audience: Bathroom soap.
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(觀眾：肥皂)
07:42
SB: Pardon?
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什麼？
07:43
Audience: Soap.
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(觀眾：肥皂)
07:44
SB: Soap, yeah. What else do you see?
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肥皂，是呀。還看到什麼？
07:46
Audience: (Inaudible)
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(觀眾：...)
07:47
SB: Mmm mmm.
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嗯、嗯。
07:48
Audience: Sink, toilet!
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(觀眾：洗臉盆、馬桶)
07:49
SB: Sink, toilet, yes, these are all memes, they're all memes,
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洗臉盆、馬桶，對，這些都是迷因，都是迷因，
07:51
but they're sort of useful ones, and then there's this one.
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它們是有用的迷因，還有這個。
07:54
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
07:58
What is this one doing?
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這個做什麼？
08:00
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
08:01
This has spread all over the world.
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這已傳遍全世界。
08:03
It's not surprising that you all found it
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無疑你們都發現了它
08:05
when you arrived in your bathrooms here.
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在你來到這裡的浴室時。
08:07
But I took this photograph in a toilet at the back of a tent
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但這張照片拍自一個帳篷後的廁所
08:12
in the eco-camp in the jungle in Assam.
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是在阿隡姆叢林的生態營中。
08:14
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
08:16
Who folded that thing up there, and why?
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誰把它摺成那樣，為什麼？
08:19
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
08:20
Some people get carried away.
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有些人受影響過了頭。
08:22
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
08:26
Other people are just lazy and make mistakes.
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其他人則太懶並弄錯了。
08:29
Some hotels exploit the opportunity to put even more memes
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有些旅館趁機會加入更多迷因
08:32
with a little sticker.
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附上小貼標。
08:34
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
08:35
What is this all about?
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到底是怎麼了？
08:37
I suppose it's there to tell you that somebody's
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我想它是要告訴你：有人已經
08:39
cleaned the place, and it's all lovely.
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清潔了這地方，全都好了。
08:41
And you know, actually, all it tells you is that another person
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你知道，實際上它告訴你的是：另個人
08:44
has potentially spread germs from place to place.
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有可能散播細菌到各處。
08:47
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
08:48
So, think of it this way.
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因此用這方式去想它。
08:50
Imagine a world full of brains
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想像世界上充滿了頭腦
08:52
and far more memes than can possibly find homes.
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但有更多的迷因找不到家。
08:55
The memes are all trying to get copied --
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迷因都試著要被複製，
08:58
trying, in inverted commas -- i.e.,
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試著，明白地講
09:01
that's the shorthand for, if they can get copied, they will.
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就是：｢盡其所能地被複製｣。
09:04
They're using you and me as their propagating, copying machinery,
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它們利用你我當擴散的複製機，
09:10
and we are the meme machines.
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我們是迷因機器。
09:13
Now, why is this important?
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為什麼這個重要？
09:15
Why is this useful, or what does it tell us?
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為什麼它有用？它告訴我們什麼？
09:17
It gives us a completely new view of human origins
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它給我們全新觀點的人類起源
09:21
and what it means to be human,
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及它對人類的意義。
09:22
all conventional theories of cultural evolution,
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所有傳統的文化演化理論，
09:26
of the origin of humans,
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人類起源理論，
09:28
and what makes us so different from other species.
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及我們異於其他物種的理論。
09:32
All other theories explaining the big brain, and language, and tool use
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其他理論都解釋大腦、語言、及工具使用
09:34
and all these things that make us unique,
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是這些事使我們獨特，
09:36
are based upon genes.
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都是基於基因。
09:39
Language must have been useful for the genes.
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語言必須對基因有用。
09:42
Tool use must have enhanced our survival, mating and so on.
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工具使用必須加強我們的存活、交配等。
09:45
It always comes back, as Richard Dawkins complained
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它總是回到，如同理察·道金斯所埋怨
09:48
all that long time ago, it always comes back to genes.
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長時以來，它總是回到基因。
09:51
The point of memetics is to say, "Oh no, it doesn't."
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迷因論則說：｢不，它不會。｣
09:55
There are two replicators now on this planet.
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現在有兩種複製體在這星球上。
09:58
From the moment that our ancestors,
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自從我們祖先
10:01
perhaps two and a half million years ago or so,
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大約 250 萬年前，
10:03
began imitating, there was a new copying process.
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開始模仿，就有一個新的複製過程。
10:07
Copying with variation and selection.
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以變異及選擇而複製。
10:09
A new replicator was let loose, and it could never be --
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釋出了一個新複製體，它將永不會 －
10:14
right from the start -- it could never be
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在一開始，它就永不會是
10:15
that human beings who let loose this new creature,
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釋放了這個新生物的人類，
10:20
could just copy the useful, beautiful, true things,
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只複製有用的、美妙的、真實的事物，
10:23
and not copy the other things.
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而不複製其他事物。
10:25
While their brains were having an advantage from being able to copy --
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人類的頭腦有利於去複製 －
10:28
lighting fires, keeping fires going, new techniques of hunting,
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取火、保存火、打獵新技法，
10:33
these kinds of things --
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這些東西 －
10:35
inevitably they were also copying putting feathers in their hair,
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難免他們也複製頭髮裝飾羽毛，
10:38
or wearing strange clothes, or painting their faces,
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或穿新奇衣服、畫臉、
10:40
or whatever.
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或什麼的。
10:41
So, you get an arms race between the genes
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因而有了武器競賽：
10:45
which are trying to get the humans to have small economical brains
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基因試著要人類有小而經濟的頭腦
10:49
and not waste their time copying all this stuff,
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不要浪費時間複製所有東西，
10:51
and the memes themselves, like the sounds that people made and copied --
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而迷因自己，像人類創造及複製的聲音 －
10:56
in other words, what turned out to be language --
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換言之，就是語言 －
10:58
competing to get the brains to get bigger and bigger.
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競爭著要頭腦越來越大。
11:01
So, the big brain, on this theory, is driven by the memes.
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因此大頭腦理論是來自迷因的。
11:05
This is why, in "The Meme Machine," I called it memetic drive.
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這是為什麼在｢迷因機器｣裡，我叫它迷因驅動機。
11:09
As the memes evolve, as they inevitably must,
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當迷因演化時，當它們難免必須，
11:12
they drive a bigger brain that is better at copying the memes
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它們驅動較會複製迷因的較大頭腦
11:16
that are doing the driving.
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去做驅動。
11:18
This is why we've ended up with such peculiar brains,
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這是為什麼我們有這樣奇特的頭腦，
11:22
that we like religion, and music, and art.
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我們喜歡宗教、音樂、和藝術。
11:25
Language is a parasite that we've adapted to,
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語言是我們已適應的寄生物，
11:28
not something that was there originally for our genes,
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不是我們基因原本就有的，
11:30
on this view.
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這樣一個觀點。
11:32
And like most parasites, it can begin dangerous,
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像大部分寄生物一樣，它一開始有危險，
11:35
but then it coevolves and adapts,
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然後一起演化、調適
11:38
and we end up with a symbiotic relationship
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結果我們和這寄生物
11:40
with this new parasite.
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形成共生關係。
11:41
And so, from our perspective,
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因此從我們的觀點，
11:43
we don't realize that that's how it began.
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我們不知它是如何開始的。
11:46
So, this is a view of what humans are.
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這是人類是什麼的一個觀點。
11:49
All other species on this planet are gene machines only,
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地球上的其他物種只是基因機器而已，
11:52
they don't imitate at all well, hardly at all.
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它們不太會模仿，幾乎不會。
11:55
We alone are gene machines and meme machines as well.
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只有我們是基因機器，也是迷因機器。
12:00
The memes took a gene machine and turned it into a meme machine.
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迷因取用基因機器，將它變成迷因機器。
12:04
But that's not all.
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但這還不是全部。
12:06
We have a new kind of memes now.
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我們現在有新種的迷因了。
12:09
I've been wondering for a long time,
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我已經驚奇一段長時間了，
12:10
since I've been thinking about memes a lot,
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因為我一直常在思考迷因，
12:12
is there a difference between the memes that we copy --
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迷因複製的東西有差別嗎 －
12:14
the words we speak to each other,
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我們彼此交談的話，
12:16
the gestures we copy, the human things --
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我們複製的姿勢，人為的物品 －
12:18
and all these technological things around us?
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以及所有我們四周的科技物品？
12:20
I have always, until now, called them all memes,
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我一直到現在都叫它們迷因，
12:24
but I do honestly think now
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但現在我坦誠思考
12:27
we need a new word for technological memes.
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我們需要為科技迷因取個新詞。
12:30
Let's call them techno-memes or temes.
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我們來把它叫做「技術迷因」或「技因」。
12:33
Because the processes are getting different.
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因為過程已經在變。
12:37
We began, perhaps 5,000 years ago, with writing.
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我們約在五千年前開始書寫。
12:40
We put the storage of memes out there on a clay tablet,
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我們將迷因典藏放在泥板上，
12:48
but in order to get true temes and true teme machines,
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但為了取得真正的技因及真正的技因機器，
12:50
you need to get the variation, the selection and the copying,
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必須有變異、選擇、和複製，
12:53
all done outside of humans.
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都在人類以外進行。
12:55
And we're getting there.
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我們快有了。
12:57
We're at this extraordinary point where we're nearly there,
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我們已趨近這快有了的特殊點，
12:59
that there are machines like that.
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已有類似的機器。
13:01
And indeed, in the short time I've already been at TED,
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真的，在我到 TED 的短暫時間裡，
13:03
I see we're even closer than I thought we were before.
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我認為，我們已比我想的還接近了。
13:05
So actually, now the temes are forcing our brains
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實際上，此時技因正強迫我們的大腦
13:11
to become more like teme machines.
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變成更像技因機器。
13:13
Our children are growing up very quickly learning to read,
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我們的孩子成長中更快學會讀書，
13:16
learning to use machinery.
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學會使用機器。
13:18
We're going to have all kinds of implants,
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我們將有各種植入物，
13:19
drugs that force us to stay awake all the time.
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迫使我們一直清醒的藥物。
13:22
We'll think we're choosing these things,
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以為是我們自己選擇這些事物，
13:24
but the temes are making us do it.
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卻是技因使我們這樣的。
13:28
So, we're at this cusp now
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因此我們正在此一頂點
13:29
of having a third replicator on our planet.
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正要有我們星球上的第三複製體。
13:34
Now, what about what else is going on out there in the universe?
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而宇宙他處又有什麼在發生？
13:39
Is there anyone else out there?
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外太空有誰嗎？
13:41
People have been asking this question for a long time.
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人們問這個問題已很長久了。
13:44
We've been asking it here at TED already.
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我們在 TED 也已問過。
13:46
In 1961, Frank Drake made his famous equation,
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1961 年，Frank Drake 提出有名的等式，
13:50
but I think he concentrated on the wrong things.
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但我覺得他聚焦到錯的事項上。
13:52
It's been very productive, that equation.
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那個等式很有生產力。
13:54
He wanted to estimate N,
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他要預估 N，
13:56
the number of communicative civilizations out there in our galaxy,
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我們星系中具溝通文明的數量。
14:00
and he included in there the rate of star formation,
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他包含在式子裡有星星形成率、
14:04
the rate of planets, but crucially, intelligence.
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行星率，及最關鍵的智慧。
14:08
I think that's the wrong way to think about it.
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我認為這樣思考法是錯的。
14:12
Intelligence appears all over the place, in all kinds of guises.
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智慧到處都有，以各種變貌。
14:15
Human intelligence is only one kind of a thing.
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人類智慧只是其中一種。
14:17
But what's really important is the replicators you have
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但最重要的是你有的複製體
14:20
and the levels of replicators, one feeding on the one before.
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及複製體的層級，各須依賴其前一個。
14:24
So, I would suggest that we don't think intelligence,
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因此我建議，我們不考慮智慧，
14:29
we think replicators.
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我們考慮複製體。
14:31
And on that basis, I've suggested a different kind of equation.
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基於此，我提議一個不同的等式。
14:34
A very simple equation.
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很單純的等式。
14:36
N, the same thing,
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N 一樣，
14:38
the number of communicative civilizations out there
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具溝通的文明數量，
14:41
[that] we might expect in our galaxy.
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預期在我們星系中的。
14:43
Just start with the number of planets there are in our galaxy.
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以我們星系中的行星數開始。
14:47
The fraction of those which get a first replicator.
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擁有第一種複製體的分數。
14:51
The fraction of those that get the second replicator.
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擁有第二種複製體的分數。
14:55
The fraction of those that get the third replicator.
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擁有第三種複製體的分數。
14:58
Because it's only the third replicator that's going to reach out --
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因為只有第三種複製體會伸展出去 －
15:01
sending information, sending probes, getting out there,
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送出資訊、送出探測器、對外探索，
15:04
and communicating with anywhere else.
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並和外界做溝通。
15:06
OK, so if we take that equation,
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好，我們用這個等式，
15:09
why haven't we heard from anybody out there?
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為何我們沒聽到有誰在外界？
15:14
Because every step is dangerous.
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因為每一步都是危險的。
15:18
Getting a new replicator is dangerous.
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取得新種複製體是危險的。
15:21
You can pull through, we have pulled through,
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你能擺脫，我們擺脫了，
15:23
but it's dangerous.
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但那是危險的。
15:25
Take the first step, as soon as life appeared on this earth.
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第一步，生命一開始在地球出現。
15:28
We may take the Gaian view.
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我們可以採用蓋亞的觀點。
15:30
I loved Peter Ward's talk yesterday -- it's not Gaian all the time.
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我喜歡昨天 Peter Ward 的演講 － 並非一直是蓋亞論。
15:33
Actually, life forms produce things that kill themselves.
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事實上，生命體製造殺死自己的事物。
15:36
Well, we did pull through on this planet.
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嗯，我們在這星球上擺脫了。
15:39
But then, a long time later, billions of years later,
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但，過了一段長時間，幾十億年後，
15:41
we got the second replicator, the memes.
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我們得到第二種複製體：迷因。
15:44
That was dangerous, all right.
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那是危險的，沒錯。
15:46
Think of the big brain.
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想想大頭腦。
15:48
How many mothers do we have here?
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這裡有幾位媽媽？
15:51
You know all about big brains.
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妳們都知道大頭腦。
15:53
They are dangerous to give birth to,
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大頭腦的生產很危險。
15:55
are agonizing to give birth to.
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生得很折磨。
15:57
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
15:59
My cat gave birth to four kittens, purring all the time.
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我的貓生了四隻小貓，嗚個不停。
16:01
Ah, mm -- slightly different.
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嗯 － 有點不同。
16:03
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
16:05
But not only is it painful, it kills lots of babies,
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它不但痛苦，害死許多嬰兒，
16:08
it kills lots of mothers,
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害死許多媽媽，
16:10
and it's very expensive to produce.
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它的產生也很昂貴。
16:12
The genes are forced into producing all this myelin,
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基因被迫去生產髓磷脂，
16:14
all the fat to myelinate the brain.
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供應大腦的髓磷脂。
16:16
Do you know, sitting here,
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你知道嗎？坐在這裡，
16:18
your brain is using about 20 percent of your body's energy output
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你的大腦大約使用身體能量產出的百分之 20.
16:22
for two percent of your body weight?
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它只有體重的百分之二。
16:24
It's a really expensive organ to run.
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這器官的運轉真的很貴。
16:26
Why? Because it's producing the memes.
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為什麼？因為它生產迷因。
16:28
Now, it could have killed us off. It could have killed us off,
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它可能害我們死光 － 可能害我們死光，
16:32
and maybe it nearly did, but you see, we don't know.
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也許它差點做到了，但我們並不清楚。
16:34
But maybe it nearly did.
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也許它差點做到了。
16:36
Has it been tried before?
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它曾試過嗎？
16:37
What about all those other species?
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其他的物種又如何？
16:39
Louise Leakey talked yesterday
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Louise Leakey 昨天談到
16:41
about how we're the only one in this branch left.
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我們是這一支系唯一存下的。
16:44
What happened to the others?
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其他的怎麼了？
16:46
Could it be that this experiment in imitation,
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會是因為實驗了模仿，
16:48
this experiment in a second replicator,
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實驗了第二種複製體
16:50
is dangerous enough to kill people off?
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危險到足以害死大家？
16:54
Well, we did pull through, and we adapted.
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我們擺脫了，我們適應了。
16:56
But now, we're hitting, as I've just described,
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而現在，我們碰上了如我剛說的，
16:59
we're hitting the third replicator point.
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我們碰上了第三種複製體。
17:01
And this is even more dangerous --
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這個更危險 －
17:04
well, it's dangerous again.
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它又是危險的。
17:06
Why? Because the temes are selfish replicators
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為什麼？因為技因是自私的複製體
17:10
and they don't care about us, or our planet, or anything else.
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它不在乎我們、我們的星球、或任何東西。
17:13
They're just information, why would they?
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它只是資訊 － 為何它要在乎？
17:17
They are using us to suck up the planet's resources
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它只利用我們去吸取地球資源
17:19
to produce more computers,
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去產生更多電腦，
17:21
and more of all these amazing things we're hearing about here at TED.
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更多驚奇事物，我們在 TED 聽到的事物。
17:24
Don't think, "Oh, we created the Internet for our own benefit."
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不要以為：｢喔，我們為自己的好處創造了網路。｣
17:28
That's how it seems to us.
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那是我們認為如此。
17:30
Think, temes spreading because they must.
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想想：技因的傳播是因為它必須如此。
17:34
We are the old machines.
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我們是老舊機器。
17:36
Now, are we going to pull through?
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現在我們能擺脫嗎？
17:38
What's going to happen?
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會出什麼事嗎？
17:40
What does it mean to pull through?
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擺脫了又怎樣？
17:42
Well, there are kind of two ways of pulling through.
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嗯，有兩種擺脫的方式。
17:45
One that is obviously happening all around us now,
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一種顯然正在我們四周發生，
17:47
is that the temes turn us into teme machines,
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即技因把我們變成技因機器，
17:51
with these implants, with the drugs,
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用植入物、用藥物，
17:53
with us merging with the technology.
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把我們併入科技中。
17:56
And why would they do that?
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為什麼它要這麼做？
17:58
Because we are self-replicating.
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因為我們自我複製。
18:00
We have babies.
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我們有後代。
18:02
We make new ones, and so it's convenient to piggyback on us,
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我們生產新生命，因此騎著我們很方便，
18:05
because we're not yet at the stage on this planet
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因為在地球上，我們還未到達
18:09
where the other option is viable.
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其他方式可行的階段。
18:11
Although it's closer, I heard this morning,
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雖然接近了，早上我聽到了，
18:13
it's closer than I thought it was.
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比我以為的還接近了。
18:15
Where the teme machines themselves will replicate themselves.
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到了技因機器會複製自己。
18:18
That way, it wouldn't matter if the planet's climate
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那時，就無所謂地球氣候
18:22
was utterly destabilized,
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是否極度不穩定，
18:24
and it was no longer possible for humans to live here.
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不再可能讓人類生存於此。
18:26
Because those teme machines, they wouldn't need --
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因為技因機器將不需要 －
18:28
they're not squishy, wet, oxygen-breathing,
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它們不是血肉之軀、呼吸氧氣、
18:30
warmth-requiring creatures.
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需要溫暖的生物。
18:33
They could carry on without us.
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沒有我們，它們也能生存。
18:35
So, those are the two possibilities.
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因此，有這兩種可能。
18:38
The second, I don't think we're that close.
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第二種，我不認為我們有那麼接近。
18:42
It's coming, but we're not there yet.
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它會來，但我們還未到達。
18:44
The first, it's coming too.
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第一種，也會來。
18:46
But the damage that is already being done
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但已造成對地球的損害
18:49
to the planet is showing us how dangerous the third point is,
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這告訴了我們第三點有多危險，
18:54
that third danger point, getting a third replicator.
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即第三危險點：取得第三種複製體。
18:58
And will we get through this third danger point,
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我們能擺脫這第三危險點，
19:00
like we got through the second and like we got through the first?
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像我們擺脫第二個，像我們擺脫第一個？
19:04
Maybe we will, maybe we won't.
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也許我們能，也許不能。
19:06
I have no idea.
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我也不知道。
19:13
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
19:24
Chris Anderson: That was an incredible talk.
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演講很精彩。
19:26
SB: Thank you. I scared myself.
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謝謝。我嚇到自己。
19:28
CA: (Laughter)
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(笑聲)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Susan Blackmore - MemeticistSusan Blackmore studies memes -- those self-replicating "life forms" that spread themselves via human consciousness. We're now headed, she believes, toward a new form of meme, spread by the technology we've created.
Why you should listen
Susan Blackmore is dedicated to understanding the scientific nature of consciousness. Her latest work centers on the existence of memes -- little bits of knowledge, lore, habit that seem to spread themselves using human brains as mere carriers. She's exploring the existence of a new class of meme, spread by human technology. It's temporarily named the "teme."
She has written about memes, consciousness, and near-death experiences; has appeared on the British Big Brother to discuss the psychology of the participants; and writes for the Guardian UK.
Susan Blackmore | Speaker | TED.com