TED2003
George Dyson: The birth of the computer
George Dyson o rođenju računala
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Povjesničar George Dyson govori o rođenju modernog računala -- od njegovih početaka u 16. stoljeću, pa sve do urnebesnih bilješki ranih računalnih inženjera.
George Dyson - Historian of science
In telling stories of technologies and the individuals who created them, George Dyson takes a clear-eyed view of our scientific past -- while illuminating what lies ahead. Full bio
In telling stories of technologies and the individuals who created them, George Dyson takes a clear-eyed view of our scientific past -- while illuminating what lies ahead. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Last year, I told you the story, in seven minutes, of Project Orion,
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Prošle godine sam vam 7 minuta pričao o Projektu Orion,
00:16
which was this very implausible technology
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koji je bio jako nemoguća tehnologija,
00:18
that technically could have worked,
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koja je mogla biti tehnički izvediva,
00:22
but it had this one-year political window where it could have happened.
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ali je imao samo jednogodišnju političku šansu da se ostvari,
00:26
So it didn't happen. It was a dream that did not happen.
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ali nije. To je bio neostvareni san.
00:28
This year I'm going to tell you the story of the birth of digital computing.
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Ove godine ću vam govoriti o rođenju digitalnog računala.
00:33
This was a perfect introduction.
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A ovo je bio savršen uvod.
00:35
And it's a story that did work. It did happen,
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I to je priča koja je proradila. I dogodilo se,
00:37
and the machines are all around us.
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računala su svugdje oko nas.
00:39
And it was a technology that was inevitable.
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To je bila neizbježna tehnologija.
00:43
If the people I'm going to tell you the story about,
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Da je nisu ostvarili ljudi o kojima ću vam pričati --
00:45
if they hadn't done it, somebody else would have.
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netko drugi bi.
00:47
So, it was sort of the right idea at the right time.
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Te je to bila prava ideja u pravo vrijeme.
00:51
This is Barricelli's universe. This is the universe we live in now.
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Ovo je Barricellijev svemir. Ovo je svemir u kojem sad živimo.
00:54
It's the universe in which these machines
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To je svemir u kojem ti strojevi
00:56
are now doing all these things, including changing biology.
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danas rade sve te stvari, uključujući i biološke promjene.
01:02
I'm starting the story with the first atomic bomb at Trinity,
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Početi ću priču s razvojem prve atomske bombe,
01:07
which was the Manhattan Project. It was a little bit like TED:
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takozvanom Projektu Mahattan. To je bilo pomalo poput TEDa:
01:09
it brought a whole lot of very smart people together.
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okupio je mnogo vrlo pametnih ljudi koji su zajedno surađivali.
01:12
And three of the smartest people were
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A troje najpametnijih su bili
01:14
Stan Ulam, Richard Feynman and John von Neumann.
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Stan Ulam, Richard Feynman i John von Neumann,
01:18
And it was Von Neumann who said, after the bomb,
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i von Neumann je bio taj koji je nakon bombe rekao da
01:20
he was working on something much more important than bombs:
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počinje raditi na nečem puno važnijem:
01:24
he's thinking about computers.
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da razmišlja o računalima.
01:26
So, he wasn't only thinking about them; he built one. This is the machine he built.
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Nije samo razmišljao o njima; napravio je jedno. Ovo je računalo koje je napravio.
01:30
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
01:34
He built this machine,
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Izgradio je ovaj stroj,
01:36
and we had a beautiful demonstration of how this thing really works,
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i imali smo prekrasnu demonstraciju o tome kako ovaj stroj stvarno radi,
01:39
with these little bits. And it's an idea that goes way back.
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sa svim tim malim elementima. Ideja je prilično stara.
01:42
The first person to really explain that
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Prva osoba koja je to stvarno objasnila
01:45
was Thomas Hobbes, who, in 1651,
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je bio Thomas Hobbes, koji je 1651. godine
01:48
explained how arithmetic and logic are the same thing,
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objasnio kako su aritmetika i logika ista stvar,
01:51
and if you want to do artificial thinking and artificial logic,
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i ako želiš napraviti umjetnu inteligenciju i umjetnu logiku,
01:54
you can do it all with arithmetic.
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možeš napraviti sve to samo s matematikom.
01:56
He said you needed addition and subtraction.
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Rekao je da samo trebaš oduzimanje i zbrajanje.
02:00
Leibniz, who came a little bit later -- this is 1679 --
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Leibniz je nekoliko godina kasnije - 1679. -
02:04
showed that you didn't even need subtraction.
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pokazao da niti ne trebaš oduzimanje.
02:06
You could do the whole thing with addition.
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Sve to možeš napraviti samo sa zbrajanjem.
02:08
Here, we have all the binary arithmetic and logic
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I tako smo došli do binarne aritmetike i logike,
02:11
that drove the computer revolution.
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koja je pokrenula računalnu revoluciju,
02:13
And Leibniz was the first person to really talk about building such a machine.
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i Leibniz je bio prva osoba koja je govorila o gradnji takvih strojeva.
02:17
He talked about doing it with marbles,
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On je govorio o izgradnji uređaja uz pomoć kuglica,
02:19
having gates and what we now call shift registers,
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s logičkim vratima i onim što sad zovemo posmičnim registrima,
02:21
where you shift the gates, drop the marbles down the tracks.
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te kad se otvore vrata, kuglice padaju na trake.
02:24
And that's what all these machines are doing,
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To je u biti ono što i danas računala rade,
02:26
except, instead of doing it with marbles,
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osim što umjesto kuglica,
02:28
they're doing it with electrons.
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koriste elektrone.
02:30
And then we jump to Von Neumann, 1945,
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I kada odemo do von Neumanna, 1945. ,
02:34
when he sort of reinvents the whole same thing.
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on ponovno iskorištava iste stvari.
02:36
And 1945, after the war, the electronics existed
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1945., nakon rata, postojala je elektronika
02:39
to actually try and build such a machine.
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koja je omogućavala da se izgradi takav stroj.
02:42
So June 1945 -- actually, the bomb hasn't even been dropped yet --
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U lipnju 1945., dok atomska bomba još nije ni bačena,
02:46
and Von Neumann is putting together all the theory to actually build this thing,
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von Neumann je već postavio teorijsku osnovu za gradnju takvog stroja,
02:50
which also goes back to Turing,
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a koja potječe još od Turinga,
02:52
who, before that, gave the idea that you could do all this
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koji je, prije svega, iznio ideju da bi se sve ovo moglo napraviti,
02:55
with a very brainless, little, finite state machine,
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s vrlo neinteligentim strojem s definiranim stanjima,
02:59
just reading a tape in and reading a tape out.
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koji može samo čitati podatke s trake i ispisivati na traku.
03:02
The other sort of genesis of what Von Neumann did
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Druga grana razvoja kojeg je von Neumann pokrenuo
03:05
was the difficulty of how you would predict the weather.
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je težina prognoziranja meteoroloških uvjeta.
03:09
Lewis Richardson saw how you could do this with a cellular array of people,
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Lewis Richardson je predviđao kako bi se to moglo napraviti s grupom ljudi,
03:13
giving them each a little chunk, and putting it together.
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od kojih bi svaki napravio jedan mali dio.
03:16
Here, we have an electrical model illustrating a mind having a will,
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Ovo je električni model koji ilustrira um koji ima volju,
03:19
but capable of only two ideas.
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ali je sposoban samo za dvije ideje.
03:21
(Laughter)
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(smijeh).
03:22
And that's really the simplest computer.
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I to je stvarno najjednostavnije računalo.
03:25
It's basically why you need the qubit,
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I u osnovi sve što trebate je qbit,
03:27
because it only has two ideas.
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jer ima samo dvije ideje.
03:29
And you put lots of those together,
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a kad puno takvih stavite zajedno,
03:31
you get the essentials of the modern computer:
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dobivate osnovu modernih računala:
03:34
the arithmetic unit, the central control, the memory,
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aritmetičku jedinicu, središnju upravljačku jedinicu, memoriju,
03:37
the recording medium, the input and the output.
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uređaj za pohranu podataka, te ulaznu i izlaznu jedinicu.
03:40
But, there's one catch. This is the fatal -- you know,
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Ali tu je jedan problem. To je fatalno -- i sami znate,
03:44
we saw it in starting these programs up.
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vidjeli smo kod pokretanja tih programa.
03:47
The instructions which govern this operation
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Instrukcije koje upravljaju tim operacijama
03:49
must be given in absolutely exhaustive detail.
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moraju biti zadane do posljednjeg detalja.
03:51
So, the programming has to be perfect, or it won't work.
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Tako da program mora biti besprijekoran, ili neće raditi.
03:54
If you look at the origins of this,
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Ako pogledate izvore toga,
03:56
the classic history sort of takes it all back to the ENIAC here.
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klasično porijeklo takvih stvari nas vraća sve do ENIAC-a.
04:00
But actually, the machine I'm going to tell you about,
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Ali u stvari računalo o kojem ću vam govoriti,
04:02
the Institute for Advanced Study machine, which is way up there,
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Institute for Grand Study Machine, koji je tamo gore,
04:05
really should be down there. So, I'm trying to revise history,
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trebao bi biti ovdje dolje. Zapravo pokušavam iznova napisati povijest,
04:07
and give some of these guys more credit than they've had.
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i dati ovim ljudima malo više zasluge nego što su dobili do sad.
04:10
Such a computer would open up universes,
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Takva računala bi otvorila prostranstva
04:12
which are, at the present, outside the range of any instruments.
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koja se nalaze izvan dometa svih instrumenata,
04:16
So it opens up a whole new world, and these people saw it.
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te otvara sasvim nove svijetove, što su ovi ljudi i uvidjeli.
04:19
The guy who was supposed to build this machine
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Osoba koja je trebala izgraditi taj stroj
04:21
was the guy in the middle, Vladimir Zworykin, from RCA.
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je muškarac u sredini, Vladimir Zworykin, iz RCA.
04:24
RCA, in probably one of the lousiest business decisions
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RCA je u najvjerojatnije najlošijoj poslovnoj odluci u povijesti
04:27
of all time, decided not to go into computers.
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odlučila da odustane od daljnjeg razvoja računala.
04:30
But the first meetings, November 1945, were at RCA's offices.
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Ali prvi sastanci, u studenom 1945., su bili u uredima RCA.
04:35
RCA started this whole thing off, and said, you know,
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RCA je započela sve ovo, i odlučila, već sami znate,
04:39
televisions are the future, not computers.
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da su televizori budućnost, a ne računala.
04:42
The essentials were all there --
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Svi elementi su već tada bili dostupni --
04:44
all the things that make these machines run.
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sve stvari koje su mogle pokrenuti računala.
04:48
Von Neumann, and a logician, and a mathematician from the army
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Von Neumann, i logičar, i matematičar iz vojske
04:51
put this together. Then, they needed a place to build it.
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su odlučili sastaviti računalo. Jedino im je trebalo mjesto gdje će to sastaviti.
04:53
When RCA said no, that's when they decided to build it in Princeton,
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Kad je RCA rekla ne, odlučili su sastaviti računalo u Princetonu,
04:57
where Freeman works at the Institute.
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gdje je Freemen radio u Institutu.
04:59
That's where I grew up as a kid.
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I to je mjesto gdje sam ja odrastao kao dijete.
05:01
That's me, that's my sister Esther, who's talked to you before,
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Ovo sam ja, ovo je moja sestra Esther, koja vam se obratila ranije,
05:05
so we both go back to the birth of this thing.
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tako da se nas oboje sjećamo rođenja tog stroja.
05:08
That's Freeman, a long time ago,
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Ovo je Freeman, davno,
05:10
and that was me.
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a ovo sam ja.
05:11
And this is Von Neumann and Morgenstern,
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Ovo su Neumann i Morgenstern
05:14
who wrote the "Theory of Games."
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koji je napisao "Teoriju igara".
05:16
All these forces came together there, in Princeton.
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I tako su se sve te snage skupile u Princetounu.
05:20
Oppenheimer, who had built the bomb.
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Oppenheimer, osoba koje je izradila bombu.
05:22
The machine was actually used mainly for doing bomb calculations.
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Uređaj je zapravo većinom služio za kalkulacije za bombu.
05:26
And Julian Bigelow, who took
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I Julian Bigelow, koji je zamijenio Zworykina
05:28
Zworkykin's place as the engineer, to actually figure out, using electronics,
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sa zadatkom da smisli kako će, korištenjem elektronike,
05:32
how you would build this thing. The whole gang of people who came to work on this,
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izgraditi takav stroj. Ova grupa ljudi koji su radili na svemu tome,
05:35
and women in front, who actually did most of the coding, were the first programmers.
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i ove žene ispred, koje su zapravo napravile najviše kodiranja, su bili prvi programeri.
05:40
These were the prototype geeks, the nerds.
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Oni su zapravo bili prvi štreberi /geekovi/.
05:44
They didn't fit in at the Institute.
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Nisu se uklapali u institut.
05:46
This is a letter from the director, concerned about --
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Ovo je pismo od ravnatelja, zabrinutog zbog --
05:49
"especially unfair on the matter of sugar."
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"pretjerane potrošnje šećera." /koji je u ratu bio racioniran/
05:52
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
05:53
You can read the text.
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Možete pročitati tekst.
05:54
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
06:00
This is hackers getting in trouble for the first time.
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Ovo su hackeri prvi put u problemima.
06:04
(Laughter).
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(smijeh)
06:09
These were not theoretical physicists.
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Oni nisu bili teoretski fizičari.
06:11
They were real soldering-gun type guys, and they actually built this thing.
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Već tipovi s lemilicama koji su zapravo izgradili ovaj stroj.
06:16
And we take it for granted now, that each of these machines
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Danas uzimamo zdravo za gotovo da svaki takav stroj,
06:18
has billions of transistors, doing billions of cycles per second without failing.
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ima milijarde tranzistora, i radi milijarde operacija u sekundi bez greške.
06:23
They were using vacuum tubes, very narrow, sloppy techniques
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A oni su koristili vakuumske cijevi, jako nespretna tehnika,
06:27
to get actually binary behavior out of these radio vacuum tubes.
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da od njih dobiju binarno ponašanje.
06:32
They actually used 6J6, the common radio tube,
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Oni su zapravo koristili 6J6, često korištenu radijsku cijev,
06:35
because they found they were more reliable than the more expensive tubes.
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zato jer je bila puno pouzdanija od skupljih cijevi.
06:39
And what they did at the Institute was publish every step of the way.
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I ono što su redovito radili, je bila objava svakog napravljenog koraka.
06:43
Reports were issued, so that this machine was cloned
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Izvještaji su učestalo slani, tako da je ovakav stroj kloniran
06:46
at 15 other places around the world.
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na još 15 mjesta na svijetu.
06:49
And it really was. It was the original microprocessor.
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I to je stvarno to. Ovo je bio originalni mikroprocesor.
06:53
All the computers now are copies of that machine.
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I sva današnja računala su kopija ovog stroja.
06:55
The memory was in cathode ray tubes --
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Memorija je bila u katodnim cijevima -
06:58
a whole bunch of spots on the face of the tube --
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hrpa točkica na zaslonu cijevi,
07:01
very, very sensitive to electromagnetic disturbances.
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jako, jako osjetljiva na elektromagnetske smetnje.
07:04
So, there's 40 of these tubes,
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Ovo je 40 takvih cijevi,
07:06
like a V-40 engine running the memory.
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poput V-40 motora koji pokreće memoriju.
07:09
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
07:10
The input and the output was by teletype tape at first.
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Ulazna i izlazna jedinica je na početku bila teleprinterska bušena vrpca.
07:15
This is a wire drive, using bicycle wheels.
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Ovo je prva jedinica sa žicama, koja koristi kotač od bicikla.
07:17
This is the archetype of the hard disk that's in your machine now.
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To je prototip današnjeg hard diska.
07:22
Then they switched to a magnetic drum.
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Kasnije su prešli na magnetski bubanj.
07:24
This is modifying IBM equipment,
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Ovo je prilagođena IBM-ova oprema,
07:26
which is the origins of the whole data-processing industry, later at IBM.
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koja je početak cijele industrije za pohranu podataka, kasnije u IBM-u.
07:30
And this is the beginning of computer graphics.
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Ovo je početak računalne grafike.
07:33
The "Graph'g-Beam Turn On." This next slide,
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"Graph'g-Beam Turn On." Na slijedećem slajdu,
07:36
that's the -- as far as I know -- the first digital bitmap display, 1954.
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je prema mom saznanju - prva digitalna bitmap slika, 1954.
07:43
So, Von Neumann was already off in a theoretical cloud,
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I tako je Von Neumann već bio u teoretskom oblaku
07:46
doing abstract sorts of studies of how you could build
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radeći abstraktne studije o tome kako napraviti
07:49
reliable machines out of unreliable components.
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pouzdan stroj od nepouzdanih komponenti.
07:52
Those guys drinking all the tea with sugar in it
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Ovi ljudi su pili čaj s previše šećera i
07:54
were writing in their logbooks, trying to get this thing to work, with all
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pisali o tome u svom dnevniku kako pokušavaju pokrenuti ovaj stroj sa svih
07:58
these 2,600 vacuum tubes that failed half the time.
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2600 vakuumski cijevi koje su se stalno kvarile.
08:01
And that's what I've been doing, this last six months, is going through the logs.
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Posljednjih šest mjeseci ja sam čitano njihove dnevnike.
08:06
"Running time: two minutes. Input, output: 90 minutes."
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"Vrijeme rada: dvije minute. Ulaz, izlaz: 90 minuta."
08:09
This includes a large amount of human error.
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Ovo je uključivalo veliku količinu ljudskih pogrešaka.
08:12
So they are always trying to figure out, what's machine error? What's human error?
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I stalno su pokušavali shvatiti za koju je grešku krivo računalo, a za koju čovjek.
08:15
What's code, what's hardware?
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Koja je greška u programu, a koja u sklopovima?
08:17
That's an engineer gazing at tube number 36,
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Ovo je inžinjer koji bulji u cijev broj 36,
08:19
trying to figure out why the memory's not in focus.
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i pokušava shvatiti zašto memorija nije u fokusu.
08:21
He had to focus the memory -- seems OK.
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Morao je fokusirati memoriju -- čini se u redu.
08:24
So, he had to focus each tube just to get the memory up and running,
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Tako je trebao fokusirati svaku cijev kako bi pokrenuo memoriju,
08:28
let alone having, you know, software problems.
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i ujedno je imao softverske probleme.
08:30
"No use, went home." (Laughter)
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"Nema koristi, otišao kući." (smijeh)
08:32
"Impossible to follow the damn thing, where's a directory?"
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"Nemoguće je pratiti prokletu stvar, gdje su upute?"
08:35
So, already, they're complaining about the manuals:
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I tako su se od samih početaka žalili na korisničke priručnike:
08:37
"before closing down in disgust ... "
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"zatvaram uz gađenje"
08:41
"The General Arithmetic: Operating Logs."
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Osnovna aritmetika -- operativni zapisi,
08:43
Burning lots of midnight oil.
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uz puno neprospavanih noći.
08:46
"MANIAC," which became the acronym for the machine,
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MANIAC je postao akronim za taj stroj,
08:48
Mathematical and Numerical Integrator and Calculator, "lost its memory."
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Matematički i numerički integrator i kalkulator, "je izgubio svoju memoriju."
08:51
"MANIAC regained its memory, when the power went off." "Machine or human?"
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"MANIAC je povratio memoriju kad je nestalo struje", "stroj ili čovjek?"
08:57
"Aha!" So, they figured out it's a code problem.
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"Aha!", i tako su shvatili: problem je u kodu:
09:00
"Found trouble in code, I hope."
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"Našao problem u kodu, bar se nadam"
09:02
"Code error, machine not guilty."
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"Greška u kodu, stroj nije kriv"
09:05
"Damn it, I can be just as stubborn as this thing."
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"K vragu, i ja mogu biti tvrdoglav kao i ovaj stroj"
09:08
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
09:13
"And the dawn came." So they ran all night.
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"Već je zora vani", i tako su radili cijele noći.
09:15
Twenty-four hours a day, this thing was running, mainly running bomb calculations.
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24 sata na dana dok je stroj radio, većinom radeći kalkulacije za bombe.
09:19
"Everything up to this point is wasted time." "What's the use? Good night."
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"Sve do sad je bio gubitak vremena", "Koja je korist od ovog? Laku noć"
09:24
"Master control off. The hell with it. Way off." (Laughter)
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"Glavna kontrola je isključena. K vragu s njom. " (smijeh)
09:28
"Something's wrong with the air conditioner --
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"Nešto ne štima s klima uređajem --
09:30
smell of burning V-belts in the air."
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smrdi po spaljenoj plastici"
09:33
"A short -- do not turn the machine on."
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"Ukratko -- nemojte paliti stroj"
09:35
"IBM machine putting a tar-like substance on the cards. The tar is from the roof."
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"IBM je koristio supstancu poput katrana na karticama. Katran je s krova"
09:40
So they really were working under tough conditions.
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Zaista su radili pod vrlo teškim uvjetima.
09:42
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
09:43
Here, "A mouse has climbed into the blower
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Ovdje, "Miš se popeo u ventilaciju
09:45
behind the regulator rack, set blower to vibrating. Result: no more mouse."
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iza regulatora, ventilator se počeo tresti. Rezultat: nema više miša."
09:49
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
09:54
"Here lies mouse. Born: ?. Died: 4:50 a.m., May 1953."
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"Ovdje leži miš. Rođen? Preminuo 4:50, Svibanj 1953."
10:01
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
10:02
There's an inside joke someone has penciled in:
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Ovdje je netko dopisao olovkom:
10:04
"Here lies Marston Mouse."
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"Ovdje leži Marstonov miš"
10:06
If you're a mathematician, you get that,
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Ako ste matematičar, bit će vam jasno,
10:08
because Marston was a mathematician who
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jer je Marston bio matematičar koji bi se
10:09
objected to the computer being there.
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protivio ovom računalu.
10:12
"Picked a lightning bug off the drum." "Running at two kilocycles."
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"Pokupio krijesnicu sa bubnja, radi na dva kilociklusa"
10:16
That's two thousand cycles per second --
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To su dvije tisuće ciklusa u sekundi --
10:18
"yes, I'm chicken" -- so two kilocycles was slow speed.
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"da, kukavica sam" -- tako da su dva kilociklusa bili spora brzina.
10:21
The high speed was 16 kilocycles.
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Brz rad je bio 16 kilociklusa.
10:24
I don't know if you remember a Mac that was 16 Megahertz,
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Ne znam dali se sjećate da je prvi Mac bio na 16 megaherca.
10:27
that's slow speed.
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To je bilo sporo.
10:29
"I have now duplicated both results.
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"Za sada sam ponovio oba rezultata.
10:32
How will I know which is right, assuming one result is correct?
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Kako ću znati koji je ispravan, ako pretpostavljam da je jedan rezultat točan.
10:35
This now is the third different output.
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Ovo je sad treći različiti rezultat.
10:37
I know when I'm licked."
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Znam kad sam poražen."
10:39
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
10:41
"We've duplicated errors before."
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"Dobivali smo iste greške već ranije"
10:43
"Machine run, fine. Code isn't."
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"Stroj dobro radi. Kod ne."
10:46
"Only happens when the machine is running."
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"Ovo se deševa samo dok stroj radi"
10:48
And sometimes things are okay.
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A ponekad su stvari dobre.
10:52
"Machine a thing of beauty, and a joy forever." "Perfect running."
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"Stroj je spoj ljepote i vječnog veselja." "Savršeno radi."
10:56
"Parting thought: when there's bigger and better errors, we'll have them."
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"Zabavna misao: kad su veće i bolje greške, sve ih imamo."
11:00
So, nobody was supposed to know they were actually designing bombs.
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Nitko nije trebao znati da oni ustvari dizajniraju bombe.
11:03
They're designing hydrogen bombs. But someone in the logbook,
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Oni dizajniraju hidrogenske bombe. Ali je netko napokon u dnevnik,
11:05
late one night, finally drew a bomb.
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kasno jedne noći, konačno nacrtao bombu.
11:07
So, that was the result. It was Mike,
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I to je bio rezultat. To je bio Mike,
11:09
the first thermonuclear bomb, in 1952.
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prva termonuklearna bomba, 1952.
11:12
That was designed on that machine,
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Koja je bila dizajnirana na tom stroju,
11:14
in the woods behind the Institute.
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u šumi iza instituta.
11:16
So Von Neumann invited a whole gang of weirdos
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I tako je von Neumann pozvao grupu čudaka
11:20
from all over the world to work on all these problems.
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iz svih krajeva svijeta da rade na tim problemima.
11:23
Barricelli, he came to do what we now call, really, artificial life,
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Baricelli je počeo raditi na onome što danas zove umjetni život,
11:27
trying to see if, in this artificial universe --
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pokušavajući vidjeti kako, u ovom umjetnom svemiru --
11:30
he was a viral-geneticist, way, way, way ahead of his time.
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on je bio genetičar -- daleko, daleko ispred svojeg vremena.
11:33
He's still ahead of some of the stuff that's being done now.
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I danas je još ispred stvari koje se sad rade.
11:36
Trying to start an artificial genetic system running in the computer.
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Pokušavajući pokrenuti umjetni genetički sustav u računalu.
11:41
Began -- his universe started March 3, '53.
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Njegov svemir je stvoren 3. svibnja '53. godine.
11:44
So it's almost exactly -- it's 50 years ago next Tuesday, I guess.
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Znači prošlo je točno -- 50 godina.
11:49
And he saw everything in terms of --
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I vidio je sve u pojmovima --
11:51
he could read the binary code straight off the machine.
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Čitao je binarni kod izravno iz stroja.
11:53
He had a wonderful rapport.
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Imao je prekrasan odnos sa strojem.
11:55
Other people couldn't get the machine running. It always worked for him.
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Drugi ljudi nisu mogli niti pokrenuti mašinu. Za njega je uvijek radila.
11:58
Even errors were duplicated.
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Čak su se i greške ponavljale.
12:00
(Laughter)
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(smijeh)
12:01
"Dr. Barricelli claims machine is wrong, code is right."
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"Dr. Barricelli tvrdi da je mašina u krivu, kod je dobar."
12:04
So he designed this universe, and ran it.
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I tako je dizajnirao svemir, i pokrenuo ga.
12:07
When the bomb people went home, he was allowed in there.
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Kad su ljudi koji su razvijali bombu otišli doma, njemu su dozvolili da ostane.
12:10
He would run that thing all night long, running these things,
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Pokretao je tu stvar cijelu noć, pokrečući programe.
12:13
if anybody remembers Stephen Wolfram,
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Ako se neko sjeća Stephena Wolframa,
12:15
who reinvented this stuff.
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on je ponovo otkrio te stvari.
12:17
And he published it. It wasn't locked up and disappeared.
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I objavio ih. Nije bilo zaključano, i nije nestalo.
12:19
It was published in the literature.
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Objavljeno je u literaturi.
12:21
"If it's that easy to create living organisms, why not create a few yourself?"
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"Ako je tako lagano stvoriti žive organizme, zašto ih ne stvorimo sami? "
12:24
So, he decided to give it a try,
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I tako je odlučio pokušati,
12:26
to start this artificial biology going in the machines.
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započeti umjetnu biologiju unutar tih strojeva.
12:30
And he found all these, sort of --
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I pronašao je sve ovo, poput --
12:32
it was like a naturalist coming in
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Bilo je kao da prirodoslovac dolazi
12:34
and looking at this tiny, 5,000-byte universe,
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i gleda u ovaj mali, 5,000-bajtni svemir,
12:37
and seeing all these things happening
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i gleda sve te stvari koje se događaju
12:39
that we see in the outside world, in biology.
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koje vidimo u vanjskom svijetu, u biologiji.
12:42
This is some of the generations of his universe.
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To su neke od generacija u njegovom svemiru.
12:48
But they're just going to stay numbers;
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Ali oni će samo ostati brojevi;
12:50
they're not going to become organisms.
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neće postati organizmi.
12:52
They have to have something.
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Moraju imati nešto.
12:53
You have a genotype and you have to have a phenotype.
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Imate genotip i morate imati fenotip.
12:55
They have to go out and do something. And he started doing that,
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Moraju ići van i raditi nešto. I on je počeo raditi to,
12:58
started giving these little numerical organisms things they could play with --
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počeo je davati tim malim numeričkim organizmima stvar s kojima bi se mogle igrati,
13:01
playing chess with other machines and so on.
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igrati šah s drugim strojevima i slično.
13:03
And they did start to evolve.
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I počeli su evoluirati.
13:05
And he went around the country after that.
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I krenuo je s tim po cijeloj zemlji.
13:07
Every time there was a new, fast machine, he started using it,
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Svaki put kad se pojavio novi, brži stroj, počeo ga je koristiti,
13:11
and saw exactly what's happening now.
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i predvidio je ono što se danas događa:
13:13
That the programs, instead of being turned off -- when you quit the program,
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da programi, umjesto da se ugase -- kad zatvorite program,
13:19
you'd keep running
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nastave raditi
13:21
and, basically, all the sorts of things like Windows is doing,
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i, u osnovi, stvari poput onih koje Windowsi rade --
13:25
running as a multi-cellular organism on many machines,
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pokreću se kao višestanični organizam na više strojeva --
13:27
he envisioned all that happening.
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predvidio je sve što će se događati.
13:28
And he saw that evolution itself was an intelligent process.
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I shvatio je da je sama evolucij inteligentni proces.
13:31
It wasn't any sort of creator intelligence,
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Evolucija nije rezultat inteligencije stvoritelja,
13:34
but the thing itself was a giant parallel computation
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već je sama po sebi divovska paralelna računalna operacija
13:37
that would have some intelligence.
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koja ima neku vrstu inteligencije.
13:39
And he went out of his way to say
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I on je počeo pričati o tome
13:41
that he was not saying this was lifelike,
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da to nije životoliko,
13:44
or a new kind of life.
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ili nova vrsta života;
13:46
It just was another version of the same thing happening.
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to je bila samo druga verzija iste stvari.
13:49
And there's really no difference between what he was doing in the computer
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I da stvarno nema neke razlike između onoga što radi računalo
13:52
and what nature did billions of years ago.
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i što je radila priroda prije nekoliko milijardi godina.
13:55
And could you do it again now?
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I možemo li to napraviti ponovo?
13:57
So, when I went into these archives looking at this stuff, lo and behold,
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I dok sam počeo pretraživati o ovome u arhivama,
14:01
the archivist came up one day, saying,
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arhivist je došao jedan dan i rekao:
14:03
"I think we found another box that had been thrown out."
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"Mislim da sam našao kutiju koja je trebala biti bačena"
14:06
And it was his universe on punch cards.
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I to je bio njegov svemir na bušenim karticama.
14:08
So there it is, 50 years later, sitting there -- sort of suspended animation.
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I tu je bila, 50 godina kasnije. Poput hiberniranog života.
14:14
That's the instructions for running --
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To su instrukcije za pokretanje --
14:16
this is actually the source code
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zapravo to je bio izvorni kod
14:18
for one of those universes,
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za jedan od tih svemira
14:20
with a note from the engineers
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s bilješkom jednog od inžinjera
14:22
saying they're having some problems.
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na kojoj piše da imaju neke probleme.
14:23
"There must be something about this code that you haven't explained yet."
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"Mora biti nešto u tom kodu što još niste objasnili"
14:28
And I think that's really the truth. We still don't understand
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I mislim da je to stvarno istina. Mi još ne razumijemo
14:31
how these very simple instructions can lead to increasing complexity.
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kako ove vrlo jednostavne instrukcije mogu voditi do tako povećane složenosti.
14:35
What's the dividing line between
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Gdje je linija koja razdvaja između
14:37
when that is lifelike and when it really is alive?
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onoga što izgleda živo i što je stvarno živo?
14:41
These cards, now, thanks to me showing up, are being saved.
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Ove bušene kartice su sada, zahvaljujući meni, spašene.
14:45
And the question is, should we run them or not?
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I pitanje je, da li bi ih trebali pokretati ili ne ?
14:47
You know, could we get them running?
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Znate, možemo li ih pokreniti?
14:49
Do you want to let it loose on the Internet?
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Da li ih želimo pustiti na Internet?
14:50
These machines would think they --
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Ovi strojevi bi mislili --
14:52
these organisms, if they came back to life now --
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ti organizmi, ako oni sad ožive,
14:55
whether they've died and gone to heaven, there's a universe.
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jesu li umrli i otišli u raj, tamo je svemir --
14:57
My laptop is 10 thousand million times
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moj laptop je 10 tisuća milijuna puta
15:02
the size of the universe that they lived in when Barricelli quit the project.
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velićine svemira u kojem su živjeli kad je Barricelli otišao iz projekta.
15:07
He was thinking far ahead, to
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On je mislio daleko unaprijed, o
15:09
how this would really grow into a new kind of life.
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tome kako će to stvarno prerasti u novu vrstu života.
15:12
And that's what's happening!
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I to je ono što se događa!
15:14
When Juan Enriquez told us about
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Kada nam je Juan Enriquez govorio o
15:16
these 12 trillion bits being transferred back and forth,
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tih 12 tisuća milijardi bita koje se prenose natrag i naprijed,
15:20
of all this genomics data going to the proteomics lab,
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svi ti genomski podaci u laboratoriju za proteine,
15:24
that's what Barricelli imagined:
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to je ono što je Barricelli zamišljao:
15:26
that this digital code in these machines
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da taj digitalni kod u tim strojevima
15:29
is actually starting to code --
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zapravo je početak kodiranja --
15:31
it already is coding from nucleic acids.
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već djelomično kodira nukleinske kiseline.
15:34
We've been doing that since, you know, since we started PCR
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To smo radili, već znate, od kad smo pokrenuli PCR
15:37
and synthesizing small strings of DNA.
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i sintetizirali male nizove DNK.
15:43
And real soon, we're actually going to be synthesizing the proteins,
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I vrlo uskoro ćemo zapravo početi sintetizirati proteine,
15:46
and, like Steve showed us, that just opens an entirely new world.
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i kako nam je Steve pokazao, to zapravo otvara cijeli jedan novi svijet.
15:51
It's a world that Von Neumann himself envisioned.
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To je svijet kojeg je von Neumann zamislio.
15:54
This was published after he died: his sort of unfinished notes
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To je bilo objavljeno nakon njegove smrti: njegove nedovršene bilješke
15:57
on self-reproducing machines,
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o samoreplicirajućim strojevima.
15:59
what it takes to get the machines sort of jump-started
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Što treba učiniti da te strojeve dovedemo do točke
16:02
to where they begin to reproduce.
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kad se počnu sami razmnožavati.
16:04
It took really three people:
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Zapravo je trebalo troje ljudi:
16:06
Barricelli had the concept of the code as a living thing;
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Baricelli koji je imao ideju programskog koda kao žive stvari.
16:09
Von Neumann saw how you could build the machines --
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Von Neumann koji je imao viziju kako izgraditi te strojeve.
16:12
that now, last count, four million
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I danas se, prema posljednjim podacima, četiri milijuna
16:15
of these Von Neumann machines is built every 24 hours;
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tih von Neumannovih strojeva proizvede svakih 24 sata.
16:18
and Julian Bigelow, who died 10 days ago --
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I Julian Bigelow, koji je umro prije 10 dana --
16:22
this is John Markoff's obituary for him --
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ovo je osmrtnica Johna Markoffova za njega --
16:25
he was the important missing link,
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on je bio važna karika koja je nedostajala,
16:27
the engineer who came in
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inžinjer koji im se pridružio
16:29
and knew how to put those vacuum tubes together and make it work.
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i znao kako spojiti te vakuumske cijevi da rade zajedno.
16:32
And all our computers have, inside them,
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I sva naša računala imaju, u sebi,
16:34
the copies of the architecture that he had to just design
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kopije arhitekture koju je on dizajnirao
16:38
one day, sort of on pencil and paper.
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jednom, olovkom na papiru.
16:41
And we owe a tremendous credit to that.
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I dugujemo mu ogromnu zahvalu zbog toga.
16:43
And he explained, in a very generous way,
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On je objasnio, na vrlo darežljiv način,
16:47
the spirit that brought all these different people to
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duh koje je doveo sve ove različite ljude u
16:49
the Institute for Advanced Study in the '40s to do this project,
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Institut za napredna istraživanja u 40-im godinama da rade na ovom projektu,
16:52
and make it freely available with no patents, no restrictions,
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i stave rezultate na raspolaganje besplatno svima, bez patenata i ograničenja,
16:55
no intellectual property disputes to the rest of the world.
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bez prava na intelektualno vlasništvo cijelom svijetu.
16:58
That's the last entry in the logbook
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I ovo je zadnji unos u dnevnik
17:01
when the machine was shut down, July 1958.
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prije nego što je stroj isključen, u lipnju 1958.
17:04
And it's Julian Bigelow who was running it until midnight
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I Julian Bigelow je taj koji je pokretao računalo sve do ponoći
17:07
when the machine was officially turned off.
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kad je stroj i službeno isključen.
17:09
And that's the end.
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I to je kraj.
17:11
Thank you very much.
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Puno hvala.
17:13
(Applause)
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(pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
George Dyson - Historian of scienceIn telling stories of technologies and the individuals who created them, George Dyson takes a clear-eyed view of our scientific past -- while illuminating what lies ahead.
Why you should listen
The development of the Aleutian kayak, its adaptation by Russians in the 18th and 19th centuries, and his own redevelopment of the craft in the 1970s was chronicled in George Dyson’s Baidarka: The Kayak of 1986. His 1997 Darwin Among the Machines: The Evolution of Global Intelligence (“the last book about the Internet written without the Internet”) explored the history and prehistory of digital computing and telecommunications as a manifestation of the convergent destiny of organisms and machines.
Project Orion: The True Story of the Atomic Spaceship, published in 2002, assembled first-person interviews and recently declassified documents to tell the story of a path not taken into space: a nuclear-powered spaceship whose objective was to land a party of 100 people on Mars four years before we landed two people on the Moon. Turing's Cathedral: The Origins of the Digital Universe, published in 2012, illuminated the transition from numbers that mean things to numbers that do things in the aftermath of World War II.
Dyson’s current project, Analogia, is a semi-autobiographical reflection on how analog computation is re-establishing control over the digital world.
George Dyson | Speaker | TED.com