TED2003
George Dyson: The birth of the computer
George Dyson: 计算机的诞生
Filmed:
Readability: 4.1
970,297 views
科学历史学家George Dyson讲述现代计算机的诞生：从16世纪起源，到早期计算机工程师的搞笑笔记簿。
George Dyson - Historian of science
In telling stories of technologies and the individuals who created them, George Dyson takes a clear-eyed view of our scientific past -- while illuminating what lies ahead. Full bio
In telling stories of technologies and the individuals who created them, George Dyson takes a clear-eyed view of our scientific past -- while illuminating what lies ahead. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Last year, I told you the story, in seven minutes, of Project Orion,
0
0
4000
去年我花了7分钟时间讲了讲“猎户座计划”，
00:16
which was this very implausible technology
1
4000
2000
确实是异想天开的技术
00:18
that technically could have worked,
2
6000
4000
技术上讲应该可行的，
00:22
but it had this one-year political window where it could have happened.
3
10000
4000
不过只有一年的政治窗口期可以上马，
00:26
So it didn't happen. It was a dream that did not happen.
4
14000
2000
所以没有上马。成了个梦想。
00:28
This year I'm going to tell you the story of the birth of digital computing.
5
16000
5000
今年我要讲的是数字计算诞生的故事。
00:33
This was a perfect introduction.
6
21000
2000
这是一个完美的介绍。
00:35
And it's a story that did work. It did happen,
7
23000
2000
说的都是实实在在发生的事情，
00:37
and the machines are all around us.
8
25000
2000
就是我们周围的计算机。
00:39
And it was a technology that was inevitable.
9
27000
4000
这项技术是历史的必然。
00:43
If the people I'm going to tell you the story about,
10
31000
2000
如果我说的这些人没有搞成，别的人也早晚会搞成。
00:45
if they hadn't done it, somebody else would have.
11
33000
2000
如果我说的这些人没有搞成，别的人也早晚会搞成。
00:47
So, it was sort of the right idea at the right time.
12
35000
4000
就是正确的时间做的正确主意。
00:51
This is Barricelli's universe. This is the universe we live in now.
13
39000
3000
这是Barricelli的世界。这是我们现在居住的世界。
00:54
It's the universe in which these machines
14
42000
2000
在这个世界中这些计算机中在做各种各样的事，包括改变生物学。
00:56
are now doing all these things, including changing biology.
15
44000
6000
在这个世界中这些计算机中在各种各样的事，包括改变生物学。
01:02
I'm starting the story with the first atomic bomb at Trinity,
16
50000
5000
我得从曼哈顿计划的首次核试验Trinity讲起，
01:07
which was the Manhattan Project. It was a little bit like TED:
17
55000
2000
有点像TED：
01:09
it brought a whole lot of very smart people together.
18
57000
3000
那个工程也集中了一群聪明的人。
01:12
And three of the smartest people were
19
60000
2000
其中三位佼佼者是：
01:14
Stan Ulam, Richard Feynman and John von Neumann.
20
62000
4000
Stanislaw Ulam（斯坦尼斯.乌拉姆），Richard Feynman（理查费曼），John von Neumann（约翰·冯·诺伊曼）
01:18
And it was Von Neumann who said, after the bomb,
21
66000
2000
搞完核弹后冯·诺伊曼说
01:20
he was working on something much more important than bombs:
22
68000
4000
他要搞一些比原子弹更重要的东西：
01:24
he's thinking about computers.
23
72000
2000
他在构思计算机。
01:26
So, he wasn't only thinking about them; he built one. This is the machine he built.
24
74000
4000
他不仅构思，他还造了一台。这就是他造的那台。
01:30
(Laughter)
25
78000
4000
（笑声）
01:34
He built this machine,
26
82000
2000
他造了这台机器，
01:36
and we had a beautiful demonstration of how this thing really works,
27
84000
3000
可以很好的演示这台带比特位的机器是如何运行的，
01:39
with these little bits. And it's an idea that goes way back.
28
87000
3000
这个想法可以追溯到1651年的托马斯·霍布斯（Thomas Hobbes），他首先阐述了这个想法。
01:42
The first person to really explain that
29
90000
3000
这个想法可以追溯到1651年的托马斯·霍布斯（Thomas Hobbes），他首先阐述了这个想法。
01:45
was Thomas Hobbes, who, in 1651,
30
93000
3000
这个想法可以追溯到1651年的托马斯·霍布斯（Thomas Hobbes），他首先阐述了这个想法。
01:48
explained how arithmetic and logic are the same thing,
31
96000
3000
他阐述了算术运算和逻辑是一回事，
01:51
and if you want to do artificial thinking and artificial logic,
32
99000
3000
如果想要进行人工思维和人工逻辑，
01:54
you can do it all with arithmetic.
33
102000
2000
你可以全部用算术运算搞定。
01:56
He said you needed addition and subtraction.
34
104000
4000
他认为只需要加法和减法运算就可以了。
02:00
Leibniz, who came a little bit later -- this is 1679 --
35
108000
4000
1679年，莱布尼茨更加推进了一步
02:04
showed that you didn't even need subtraction.
36
112000
2000
证明甚至可以不用减法运算。
02:06
You could do the whole thing with addition.
37
114000
2000
只用加法运算就可以搞定一切。
02:08
Here, we have all the binary arithmetic and logic
38
116000
3000
由此我们拥有了推进计算机革命所需的二进制算术和逻辑，
02:11
that drove the computer revolution.
39
119000
2000
由此我们拥有了推进计算机革命所需的二进制算术和逻辑，
02:13
And Leibniz was the first person to really talk about building such a machine.
40
121000
4000
莱布尼茨就是提出建造计算机器的第一人。
02:17
He talked about doing it with marbles,
41
125000
2000
他提出用弹子球和控制闸门来构造机器，相当于我们现在的移位寄存器，
02:19
having gates and what we now call shift registers,
42
127000
2000
他提出用弹子球和控制闸门来构造机器，相当于我们现在的移位寄存器，
02:21
where you shift the gates, drop the marbles down the tracks.
43
129000
3000
转动闸门，小球落到轨道上。
02:24
And that's what all these machines are doing,
44
132000
2000
这就是计算机运行的原理，
02:26
except, instead of doing it with marbles,
45
134000
2000
只不过当时用弹子球，
02:28
they're doing it with electrons.
46
136000
2000
现在用电子而已。
02:30
And then we jump to Von Neumann, 1945,
47
138000
4000
我们再回到1945年，冯·诺伊曼可以说是重新发明了一个一样的东西。
02:34
when he sort of reinvents the whole same thing.
48
142000
2000
我们再回到1945年，冯·诺伊曼可以说是重新发明了一个一样的东西。
02:36
And 1945, after the war, the electronics existed
49
144000
3000
1945年战后，电子工业已经
02:39
to actually try and build such a machine.
50
147000
3000
开始试图造这样的机器。
02:42
So June 1945 -- actually, the bomb hasn't even been dropped yet --
51
150000
4000
1945年6月。原子弹还没有投放前，
02:46
and Von Neumann is putting together all the theory to actually build this thing,
52
154000
4000
冯·诺伊曼已经整理了建造计算机的所有相关理论，
02:50
which also goes back to Turing,
53
158000
2000
这也可以追溯到图灵的理论，
02:52
who, before that, gave the idea that you could do all this
54
160000
3000
图灵在此之前已经提出了一个想法，
02:55
with a very brainless, little, finite state machine,
55
163000
4000
用一个简单的有限状态机，
02:59
just reading a tape in and reading a tape out.
56
167000
3000
通过读写纸带就可以做到。
03:02
The other sort of genesis of what Von Neumann did
57
170000
3000
冯·诺伊曼的另一个天才之处在于
03:05
was the difficulty of how you would predict the weather.
58
173000
4000
解决了如何预测天气的难题。
03:09
Lewis Richardson saw how you could do this with a cellular array of people,
59
177000
4000
Lewis Richardson预见到可以利用单元阵列，
03:13
giving them each a little chunk, and putting it together.
60
181000
3000
每个人绘制一小块，然后拼到一起。
03:16
Here, we have an electrical model illustrating a mind having a will,
61
184000
3000
我们用电子模型演示有意志的思维，
03:19
but capable of only two ideas.
62
187000
2000
不过只有两个状态。
03:21
(Laughter)
63
189000
1000
（笑声）
03:22
And that's really the simplest computer.
64
190000
3000
这就是一个最简单的计算机。
03:25
It's basically why you need the qubit,
65
193000
2000
这就是为什么需要需要量子位了，
03:27
because it only has two ideas.
66
195000
2000
因为那只有两个状态。
03:29
And you put lots of those together,
67
197000
2000
如果把这么多东西组合起来，
03:31
you get the essentials of the modern computer:
68
199000
3000
就可以组成现代计算机的基本部件：
03:34
the arithmetic unit, the central control, the memory,
69
202000
3000
算术单元，中央控制单元，内存，
03:37
the recording medium, the input and the output.
70
205000
3000
存储介质，输入和输出设备。
03:40
But, there's one catch. This is the fatal -- you know,
71
208000
4000
不过有个缺点。这个很要命，
03:44
we saw it in starting these programs up.
72
212000
3000
计算机的起点是编码指令。
03:47
The instructions which govern this operation
73
215000
2000
指令控制着计算机的运行，必须绝对精确。
03:49
must be given in absolutely exhaustive detail.
74
217000
2000
指令控制着计算机的运行，必须绝对精确。
03:51
So, the programming has to be perfect, or it won't work.
75
219000
3000
程序必须完美，不然就会运行出错。
03:54
If you look at the origins of this,
76
222000
2000
如果你追根溯源，
03:56
the classic history sort of takes it all back to the ENIAC here.
77
224000
4000
一般的历史都可以追溯到ENIAC计算机。
04:00
But actually, the machine I'm going to tell you about,
78
228000
2000
不过我要讲的机器(IAS机或叫MANIC)，
04:02
the Institute for Advanced Study machine, which is way up there,
79
230000
3000
大规模研究机器的研究院，虽然都是在ENIAC的基础上创造的，
04:05
really should be down there. So, I'm trying to revise history,
80
233000
2000
但是他们才是当代计算机的鼻祖。我修正一下历史，
04:07
and give some of these guys more credit than they've had.
81
235000
3000
给这些家伙更多的荣誉。
04:10
Such a computer would open up universes,
82
238000
2000
这台电脑开创了一个领域
04:12
which are, at the present, outside the range of any instruments.
83
240000
4000
超出了当时所有设备的范围，
04:16
So it opens up a whole new world, and these people saw it.
84
244000
3000
它开启了一个崭新的世界，这些人预见到了。
04:19
The guy who was supposed to build this machine
85
247000
2000
有希望造这台机器的家伙，就站在照片中间，斯福罗金（Vladimir Zworykin“电视之父”）来自美国无线电公司（RCA）。
04:21
was the guy in the middle, Vladimir Zworykin, from RCA.
86
249000
3000
有希望造这台机器的家伙，就站在照片中间，斯福罗金（Vladimir Zworykin“电视之父”）来自美国无线电公司（RCA）。
04:24
RCA, in probably one of the lousiest business decisions
87
252000
3000
RCA，做了一个有史以来最遭的商业决策，不进入计算机领域。
04:27
of all time, decided not to go into computers.
88
255000
3000
RCA，做了一个有史以来最遭的商业决策，不进入计算机领域。
04:30
But the first meetings, November 1945, were at RCA's offices.
89
258000
5000
1945年11月，RCA的办公室里召开的会议。
04:35
RCA started this whole thing off, and said, you know,
90
263000
4000
RCA启动了计划，并预测电视而不是计算机会引领未来。
04:39
televisions are the future, not computers.
91
267000
3000
RCA启动了计划，并预测电视而不是计算机会引领未来。
04:42
The essentials were all there --
92
270000
2000
运行计算机所需的基本要件都在这里了。
04:44
all the things that make these machines run.
93
272000
4000
运行计算机所需的基本要件都在这里了。
04:48
Von Neumann, and a logician, and a mathematician from the army
94
276000
3000
冯·诺伊曼与一位逻辑学家和一位来自军队的数学家整合了这些。
04:51
put this together. Then, they needed a place to build it.
95
279000
2000
他们需要一个地方造这机器。
04:53
When RCA said no, that's when they decided to build it in Princeton,
96
281000
4000
被RCA拒绝后，他们决定在普林斯顿造。
04:57
where Freeman works at the Institute.
97
285000
2000
弗里曼（他老爸）就在这个研究院工作。
04:59
That's where I grew up as a kid.
98
287000
2000
我也是从小在那里长大的。
05:01
That's me, that's my sister Esther, who's talked to you before,
99
289000
4000
这是我和我姐姐Esther，她以前和你们聊过的，
05:05
so we both go back to the birth of this thing.
100
293000
3000
我们一起追溯计算机的诞生。
05:08
That's Freeman, a long time ago,
101
296000
2000
这是弗里曼，很早以前了，
05:10
and that was me.
102
298000
1000
这是我。
05:11
And this is Von Neumann and Morgenstern,
103
299000
3000
冯·诺伊曼和奥斯卡·摩根斯坦(Oskar Morgenstern)
05:14
who wrote the "Theory of Games."
104
302000
2000
他们撰写了“博弈论”。
05:16
All these forces came together there, in Princeton.
105
304000
4000
在普林斯顿，各种力量汇集到一起。
05:20
Oppenheimer, who had built the bomb.
106
308000
2000
奥本海默（Oppenheimer）主持原子弹设计的家伙。
05:22
The machine was actually used mainly for doing bomb calculations.
107
310000
4000
这机器当初主要用于核弹相关的计算。
05:26
And Julian Bigelow, who took
108
314000
2000
比奇洛（Julian Bigelow）这家伙搞明白应该用电子器件造这种机器。
05:28
Zworkykin's place as the engineer, to actually figure out, using electronics,
109
316000
4000
比奇洛（Julian Bigelow）这家伙搞明白应该用电子器件造这种机器。
05:32
how you would build this thing. The whole gang of people who came to work on this,
110
320000
3000
这就是造机器的那群人，
05:35
and women in front, who actually did most of the coding, were the first programmers.
111
323000
5000
前排的女士们编写了大部分的代码，她们是最早的程序员。
05:40
These were the prototype geeks, the nerds.
112
328000
4000
他们就是geeks，nerds的原型。
05:44
They didn't fit in at the Institute.
113
332000
2000
他们不适合呆在研究院里。
05:46
This is a letter from the director, concerned about --
114
334000
3000
这是一封来自主任的信，提到
05:49
"especially unfair on the matter of sugar."
115
337000
3000
“糖的问题特别不公平。”
05:52
(Laughter)
116
340000
1000
（笑声）
05:53
You can read the text.
117
341000
1000
你可以读读这封信。
05:54
(Laughter)
118
342000
6000
（笑声）
06:00
This is hackers getting in trouble for the first time.
119
348000
4000
这是黑客们第一次遇到麻烦。
06:04
(Laughter).
120
352000
5000
（笑声）
06:09
These were not theoretical physicists.
121
357000
2000
这些不是理论物理学家。
06:11
They were real soldering-gun type guys, and they actually built this thing.
122
359000
5000
他们是耍焊枪的家伙，他们实际造了计算机。
06:16
And we take it for granted now, that each of these machines
123
364000
2000
现在我们认为有几十亿晶体管每秒几十亿周期的计算机不出问题是想当然的。
06:18
has billions of transistors, doing billions of cycles per second without failing.
124
366000
5000
现在我们认为有几十亿晶体管每秒几十亿周期的计算机不出问题是想当然的。
06:23
They were using vacuum tubes, very narrow, sloppy techniques
125
371000
4000
那时，他们用的是真空管，非常粗糙的技术
06:27
to get actually binary behavior out of these radio vacuum tubes.
126
375000
5000
用无线电真空管完成二进制动作。
06:32
They actually used 6J6, the common radio tube,
127
380000
3000
他们用的是6J6，通用电子管，
06:35
because they found they were more reliable than the more expensive tubes.
128
383000
4000
因为他们发现这种管子比其他更贵的管子更可靠。
06:39
And what they did at the Institute was publish every step of the way.
129
387000
4000
他们在研究院里公布了开发的每一步。
06:43
Reports were issued, so that this machine was cloned
130
391000
3000
发布报告，这样机器就在世界上15个不同的地方被克隆。
06:46
at 15 other places around the world.
131
394000
3000
发布报告，这样机器就在世界上15个不同的地方被克隆。
06:49
And it really was. It was the original microprocessor.
132
397000
4000
实际上这就是微处理器的原型。
06:53
All the computers now are copies of that machine.
133
401000
2000
现在的所有计算机都是仿照这台机器。
06:55
The memory was in cathode ray tubes --
134
403000
3000
内存用的是阴极射线管(RCA公司负责设计内存)
06:58
a whole bunch of spots on the face of the tube --
135
406000
3000
阴极射线管表面的一簇点，
07:01
very, very sensitive to electromagnetic disturbances.
136
409000
3000
对电磁扰动非常敏感。
07:04
So, there's 40 of these tubes,
137
412000
2000
这是40个管子，
07:06
like a V-40 engine running the memory.
138
414000
3000
内存运行就像V-40发动机。
07:09
(Laughter)
139
417000
1000
（笑声）
07:10
The input and the output was by teletype tape at first.
140
418000
5000
最早输入输出用的是电传打字带。
07:15
This is a wire drive, using bicycle wheels.
141
423000
2000
这是线驱动的，用的是自行车轮子。
07:17
This is the archetype of the hard disk that's in your machine now.
142
425000
5000
这就是你计算机里的硬盘的原型。
07:22
Then they switched to a magnetic drum.
143
430000
2000
后来改用磁鼓（magnetic drum）。
07:24
This is modifying IBM equipment,
144
432000
2000
这是改进中的IBM的设备，
07:26
which is the origins of the whole data-processing industry, later at IBM.
145
434000
4000
就是之后IBM数据处理行业的起源。
07:30
And this is the beginning of computer graphics.
146
438000
3000
这是计算机图形的起源。
07:33
The "Graph'g-Beam Turn On." This next slide,
147
441000
3000
图形光束打开（“Graph'g-Beam Turn On.”），下一个幻灯片，
07:36
that's the -- as far as I know -- the first digital bitmap display, 1954.
148
444000
7000
1954年，据我所知最早的数字位图。
07:43
So, Von Neumann was already off in a theoretical cloud,
149
451000
3000
冯·诺伊曼已经不搞那些理论了
07:46
doing abstract sorts of studies of how you could build
150
454000
3000
埋头于研究如何用不稳定的部件造出稳定的机器。
07:49
reliable machines out of unreliable components.
151
457000
3000
埋头于研究如何用不稳定的部件造出稳定的机器。
07:52
Those guys drinking all the tea with sugar in it
152
460000
2000
这些家伙喝着加糖的茶，在工作日志上记录下机器的运行状况，
07:54
were writing in their logbooks, trying to get this thing to work, with all
153
462000
4000
这些家伙喝着加糖的茶，在工作日志上记录下机器的运行状况，
07:58
these 2,600 vacuum tubes that failed half the time.
154
466000
3000
有2600个真空管的机器有一半时间是有故障的。
08:01
And that's what I've been doing, this last six months, is going through the logs.
155
469000
5000
这就是我上六个月所作的，察看这些日志。
08:06
"Running time: two minutes. Input, output: 90 minutes."
156
474000
3000
“运行时间：两分钟。输入输出：90分钟。”
08:09
This includes a large amount of human error.
157
477000
3000
这里包含了大量的人为错误。
08:12
So they are always trying to figure out, what's machine error? What's human error?
158
480000
3000
所以他们总是的分析，是机器还是人为的错误。
08:15
What's code, what's hardware?
159
483000
2000
代码的问题，还是硬件的问题。
08:17
That's an engineer gazing at tube number 36,
160
485000
2000
这是一个工程师盯着36号管子，
08:19
trying to figure out why the memory's not in focus.
161
487000
2000
想弄明白为什么内存没对焦。
08:21
He had to focus the memory -- seems OK.
162
489000
3000
他不得不亲自对焦。
08:24
So, he had to focus each tube just to get the memory up and running,
163
492000
4000
他不得不亲自对焦每一个内存阴极射线管来让机器可以运行。
08:28
let alone having, you know, software problems.
164
496000
2000
与此而来的，还有软件问题。
08:30
"No use, went home." (Laughter)
165
498000
2000
“不管用，回家。”（笑声）
08:32
"Impossible to follow the damn thing, where's a directory?"
166
500000
3000
“搞不定这该死的东西，电话簿在哪里？”
08:35
So, already, they're complaining about the manuals:
167
503000
2000
他们抱怨使用手册：
08:37
"before closing down in disgust ... "
168
505000
4000
“反感的关掉”
08:41
"The General Arithmetic: Operating Logs."
169
509000
2000
通用算法 -- 运行日志，
08:43
Burning lots of midnight oil.
170
511000
3000
开了很多夜车。
08:46
"MANIAC," which became the acronym for the machine,
171
514000
2000
MANIAC，成了这机器的缩写，
08:48
Mathematical and Numerical Integrator and Calculator, "lost its memory."
172
516000
3000
数学分析器数值积分器和计算机，“内存丢失。”
08:51
"MANIAC regained its memory, when the power went off." "Machine or human?"
173
519000
6000
“MANIAC断电后找回内存”，“机器还是人为原因？”
08:57
"Aha!" So, they figured out it's a code problem.
174
525000
3000
“哈！”他们找到问题了：是个代码问题：
09:00
"Found trouble in code, I hope."
175
528000
2000
“希望是代码有问题”
09:02
"Code error, machine not guilty."
176
530000
3000
“代码错误，机器无罪。”
09:05
"Damn it, I can be just as stubborn as this thing."
177
533000
3000
“该死，我受不了这固执的东西了。”
09:08
(Laughter)
178
536000
5000
（笑声）
09:13
"And the dawn came." So they ran all night.
179
541000
2000
“黎明来临了。”他们干了一夜。
09:15
Twenty-four hours a day, this thing was running, mainly running bomb calculations.
180
543000
4000
机器一天24小时不停运转，主要是核弹计算。
09:19
"Everything up to this point is wasted time." "What's the use? Good night."
181
547000
5000
“所有问题归结到这一点，浪费时间。” “有什么用？晚安。”
09:24
"Master control off. The hell with it. Way off." (Laughter)
182
552000
4000
“主控关闭？。怎么搞得。错的离谱。”（笑声）
09:28
"Something's wrong with the air conditioner --
183
556000
2000
“空调出故障了
09:30
smell of burning V-belts in the air."
184
558000
3000
空气中有烧焦皮带味。“
09:33
"A short -- do not turn the machine on."
185
561000
2000
“简短的，不要开机。”
09:35
"IBM machine putting a tar-like substance on the cards. The tar is from the roof."
186
563000
5000
“IBM机器在卡片上涂了焦油样的东西。焦油来自屋顶。”
09:40
So they really were working under tough conditions.
187
568000
2000
他们的工作条件确实很艰苦。
09:42
(Laughter)
188
570000
1000
（笑声）
09:43
Here, "A mouse has climbed into the blower
189
571000
2000
这里，“一只老鼠爬到鼓风机里了
09:45
behind the regulator rack, set blower to vibrating. Result: no more mouse."
190
573000
4000
调节器支架后面，造成鼓风机震动。结论：再没老鼠了。“
09:49
(Laughter)
191
577000
5000
（笑声）
09:54
"Here lies mouse. Born: ?. Died: 4:50 a.m., May 1953."
192
582000
7000
“这里倒下了一只老鼠。出生年代不详，死亡时间：1953年5月早上4:50分。”
10:01
(Laughter)
193
589000
1000
（笑声）
10:02
There's an inside joke someone has penciled in:
194
590000
2000
有人在这里写下了一个内部玩笑：
10:04
"Here lies Marston Mouse."
195
592000
2000
“Marston老鼠倒在这里。”
10:06
If you're a mathematician, you get that,
196
594000
2000
你要是个数学家的话，你就会明白，
10:08
because Marston was a mathematician who
197
596000
1000
因为Marston就是个反对造计算机的数学家。
10:09
objected to the computer being there.
198
597000
3000
因为Marston就是个反对造计算机的数学家。
10:12
"Picked a lightning bug off the drum." "Running at two kilocycles."
199
600000
4000
“从磁鼓上拿掉一只萤火虫，以两千赫的速度运行。”
10:16
That's two thousand cycles per second --
200
604000
2000
每秒两千次循环
10:18
"yes, I'm chicken" -- so two kilocycles was slow speed.
201
606000
3000
“是的，我是胆小” 两千赫每秒是很慢的速度。
10:21
The high speed was 16 kilocycles.
202
609000
3000
最高速度可以到16千赫每秒。
10:24
I don't know if you remember a Mac that was 16 Megahertz,
203
612000
3000
也许您还记得，以前Mac机的主频是16兆赫兹。
10:27
that's slow speed.
204
615000
2000
确实太慢了。
10:29
"I have now duplicated both results.
205
617000
3000
“现在有了两个不同的运行结果。
10:32
How will I know which is right, assuming one result is correct?
206
620000
3000
我不知道哪一个是正确的？
10:35
This now is the third different output.
207
623000
2000
现在又有了第三个不同的结果。
10:37
I know when I'm licked."
208
625000
2000
我明白我被打败了。“
10:39
(Laughter)
209
627000
2000
（笑声）
10:41
"We've duplicated errors before."
210
629000
2000
“我们以前出现过这样的错误。”
10:43
"Machine run, fine. Code isn't."
211
631000
3000
“机器正常，代码错误。”
10:46
"Only happens when the machine is running."
212
634000
2000
“只有机器运行时才发生。”
10:48
And sometimes things are okay.
213
636000
4000
有时还不错。
10:52
"Machine a thing of beauty, and a joy forever." "Perfect running."
214
640000
4000
“美好的机器是永恒的喜悦。（仿英国诗人济慈《Endymion》诗句）” “完美的运行。”
10:56
"Parting thought: when there's bigger and better errors, we'll have them."
215
644000
4000
“临别思考：当有更大更好的错误，我们会拥有他们。”
11:00
So, nobody was supposed to know they were actually designing bombs.
216
648000
3000
应该没人知道他们正在设计核弹。
11:03
They're designing hydrogen bombs. But someone in the logbook,
217
651000
2000
他们正在设计氢弹。不过某个人在日志本上：
11:05
late one night, finally drew a bomb.
218
653000
2000
某天晚上，画了一个炸弹。
11:07
So, that was the result. It was Mike,
219
655000
2000
这就是成果。第一颗氢弹Mike
11:09
the first thermonuclear bomb, in 1952.
220
657000
3000
1952年第一枚热核弹。
11:12
That was designed on that machine,
221
660000
2000
就是在高等研究院后的树林的这台机器上设计的，
11:14
in the woods behind the Institute.
222
662000
2000
就是在高等研究院后的的树林的这台机器上设计的，
11:16
So Von Neumann invited a whole gang of weirdos
223
664000
4000
冯·诺伊曼还从世界各地请了一批怪人研究各种问题。
11:20
from all over the world to work on all these problems.
224
668000
3000
冯·诺伊曼还从世界各地请了一批怪人研究各种问题。
11:23
Barricelli, he came to do what we now call, really, artificial life,
225
671000
4000
Barricelli就是来想搞明白，在这个人造的世界中研究人造生命的，
11:27
trying to see if, in this artificial universe --
226
675000
3000
Barricelli就是来想搞明白，在这个人造的世界是否可以产生人造生命的，
11:30
he was a viral-geneticist, way, way, way ahead of his time.
227
678000
3000
他是个病毒遗传学家 -- 他的研究远远超前于那个时代。
11:33
He's still ahead of some of the stuff that's being done now.
228
681000
3000
至今他的某些研究还是超前的。
11:36
Trying to start an artificial genetic system running in the computer.
229
684000
5000
他试图在计算机上启动一个人造遗传系统。
11:41
Began -- his universe started March 3, '53.
230
689000
3000
1953年3月3日他的世界启动了。
11:44
So it's almost exactly -- it's 50 years ago next Tuesday, I guess.
231
692000
5000
我想到下周二就整整50年了。
11:49
And he saw everything in terms of --
232
697000
2000
他直接读源代码
11:51
he could read the binary code straight off the machine.
233
699000
2000
他可以直接读机器的二进制代码。
11:53
He had a wonderful rapport.
234
701000
2000
他和机器相处融洽。
11:55
Other people couldn't get the machine running. It always worked for him.
235
703000
3000
别人不能让机器运行。他却可以搞定。
11:58
Even errors were duplicated.
236
706000
2000
实际上故障也是他弄出来的。
12:00
(Laughter)
237
708000
1000
（笑声）
12:01
"Dr. Barricelli claims machine is wrong, code is right."
238
709000
3000
“Barricelli博士认为是机器问题，代码是正确的。”
12:04
So he designed this universe, and ran it.
239
712000
3000
所以他设计并运行了这个世界。
12:07
When the bomb people went home, he was allowed in there.
240
715000
3000
当搞核弹的人回家的时候，他可以进来用。
12:10
He would run that thing all night long, running these things,
241
718000
3000
他可以通宵运行这些东西。
12:13
if anybody remembers Stephen Wolfram,
242
721000
2000
可能有人记得Stephen Wolfram，
12:15
who reinvented this stuff.
243
723000
2000
他重发明了这些东西。
12:17
And he published it. It wasn't locked up and disappeared.
244
725000
2000
这一切都没有锁在柜子里被人遗忘，他把资料都发布了出来。
12:19
It was published in the literature.
245
727000
2000
这些都被发布在文献中。
12:21
"If it's that easy to create living organisms, why not create a few yourself?"
246
729000
3000
“如果制造生命组织很容易，为什么不造几个自己？”
12:24
So, he decided to give it a try,
247
732000
2000
他决定试一试，
12:26
to start this artificial biology going in the machines.
248
734000
4000
在机器里启动了人造生物学。
12:30
And he found all these, sort of --
249
738000
2000
他找到了这些，
12:32
it was like a naturalist coming in
250
740000
2000
就像个自然学家跑进这个微小的只有5000个字节的世界里研究，
12:34
and looking at this tiny, 5,000-byte universe,
251
742000
3000
就像个自然学家跑进这个微小的只有5000个字节的世界里研究，
12:37
and seeing all these things happening
252
745000
2000
以生物学的角度看待这里发生的一切。
12:39
that we see in the outside world, in biology.
253
747000
3000
以生物学的角度看待这里发生的一切。
12:42
This is some of the generations of his universe.
254
750000
6000
这是他的世界的某几代。
12:48
But they're just going to stay numbers;
255
756000
2000
不过他们仅仅停留在数字上，
12:50
they're not going to become organisms.
256
758000
2000
数字不可能成为有机体。
12:52
They have to have something.
257
760000
1000
他们必须有些东西。
12:53
You have a genotype and you have to have a phenotype.
258
761000
2000
你有一个基因型，你必须有一个表型。
12:55
They have to go out and do something. And he started doing that,
259
763000
3000
他们必须走出去，做些事。然后他开始干这个，
12:58
started giving these little numerical organisms things they could play with --
260
766000
3000
让这些小的数字生物体和其他机器下象棋，诸如此类的东西。
13:01
playing chess with other machines and so on.
261
769000
2000
让这些小的数字生物体和其他机器下象棋，诸如此类的东西。
13:03
And they did start to evolve.
262
771000
2000
然后它们开始进化。
13:05
And he went around the country after that.
263
773000
2000
之后他跑遍全国。
13:07
Every time there was a new, fast machine, he started using it,
264
775000
4000
每次找到更新更快的机器，他就运行它。
13:11
and saw exactly what's happening now.
265
779000
2000
看看现在到底发生了什么：
13:13
That the programs, instead of being turned off -- when you quit the program,
266
781000
6000
当你退出这些程序的时候，它们并不会停止，
13:19
you'd keep running
267
787000
2000
它们一直在运行
13:21
and, basically, all the sorts of things like Windows is doing,
268
789000
4000
有点类似于Windows
13:25
running as a multi-cellular organism on many machines,
269
793000
2000
在多台机器上运行多细胞生物体
13:27
he envisioned all that happening.
270
795000
1000
他设想了所有这些。
13:28
And he saw that evolution itself was an intelligent process.
271
796000
3000
他认为它的自身进化是一个智能过程。
13:31
It wasn't any sort of creator intelligence,
272
799000
3000
这些智能并不来自于创造者，
13:34
but the thing itself was a giant parallel computation
273
802000
3000
这东西本身是并行运算
13:37
that would have some intelligence.
274
805000
2000
会有自己的智能。
13:39
And he went out of his way to say
275
807000
2000
他特别指出
13:41
that he was not saying this was lifelike,
276
809000
3000
他认为这并不意味着类生命，
13:44
or a new kind of life.
277
812000
2000
或者一种新生命体，
13:46
It just was another version of the same thing happening.
278
814000
3000
只是同样发生的事的另一个版本。
13:49
And there's really no difference between what he was doing in the computer
279
817000
3000
他在计算机上做的工作和自然界数十亿年前完成的没有区别。
13:52
and what nature did billions of years ago.
280
820000
3000
他在计算机上做的工作和自然界数十亿年前完成的没有区别。
13:55
And could you do it again now?
281
823000
2000
你可以再做一遍吗？
13:57
So, when I went into these archives looking at this stuff, lo and behold,
282
825000
4000
有天当我走进档案馆翻弄这些资料的时候，
14:01
the archivist came up one day, saying,
283
829000
2000
管理员跑过来对我说
14:03
"I think we found another box that had been thrown out."
284
831000
3000
“我们找到了另一箱扔掉的东西。”
14:06
And it was his universe on punch cards.
285
834000
2000
这就是在打孔卡上他的世界。
14:08
So there it is, 50 years later, sitting there -- sort of suspended animation.
286
836000
6000
50年后，坐在这里。有点类似动画的暂停。
14:14
That's the instructions for running --
287
842000
2000
这是要运行的指令
14:16
this is actually the source code
288
844000
2000
这实际上是其中一个世界的源代码，
14:18
for one of those universes,
289
846000
2000
这实际上是其中一个世界的源代码，
14:20
with a note from the engineers
290
848000
2000
以及一个工程师的注释
14:22
saying they're having some problems.
291
850000
1000
写道它们有些问题。
14:23
"There must be something about this code that you haven't explained yet."
292
851000
5000
“这些代码的某些东西，你还解释不了。”
14:28
And I think that's really the truth. We still don't understand
293
856000
3000
我想这是事实。我们还是不了解
14:31
how these very simple instructions can lead to increasing complexity.
294
859000
4000
为什么这些简单的指令会导致复杂性大大增加。
14:35
What's the dividing line between
295
863000
2000
类生命和真实生命的区别在哪里呢？
14:37
when that is lifelike and when it really is alive?
296
865000
4000
类生命和真实生命的区别在哪里呢？
14:41
These cards, now, thanks to me showing up, are being saved.
297
869000
4000
由于我在场，这些卡片被保存了。
14:45
And the question is, should we run them or not?
298
873000
2000
问题是，我们应该运行它们吗？
14:47
You know, could we get them running?
299
875000
2000
我们还能运行它们吗？
14:49
Do you want to let it loose on the Internet?
300
877000
1000
你想把它释放到Internet上吗？
14:50
These machines would think they --
301
878000
2000
这些机器就会思考
14:52
these organisms, if they came back to life now --
302
880000
3000
如果它们现在复活，
14:55
whether they've died and gone to heaven, there's a universe.
303
883000
2000
无论它们是死去了还是去了天堂，那里总会有一个世界
14:57
My laptop is 10 thousand million times
304
885000
5000
我笔记本电脑中的世界比Barricelli退出项目时的电脑中的世界要大数十亿倍。
15:02
the size of the universe that they lived in when Barricelli quit the project.
305
890000
5000
我笔记本电脑中的世界比Barricelli退出项目时的电脑中的世界要大数十亿倍。
15:07
He was thinking far ahead, to
306
895000
2000
他的思考远远领先于这个时代，
15:09
how this would really grow into a new kind of life.
307
897000
3000
这将如何成长为一种新生命。
15:12
And that's what's happening!
308
900000
2000
这是现在正在发生的！
15:14
When Juan Enriquez told us about
309
902000
2000
璜·安利奎斯 (Juan Enriquez)告诉我们
15:16
these 12 trillion bits being transferred back and forth,
310
904000
4000
有12万亿比特位数据在来回传送，
15:20
of all this genomics data going to the proteomics lab,
311
908000
4000
以染色体数据的形式汇往蛋白质组学实验室，
15:24
that's what Barricelli imagined:
312
912000
2000
这就是Barricelli所设想的：
15:26
that this digital code in these machines
313
914000
3000
这些机器里的数字代码
15:29
is actually starting to code --
314
917000
2000
已经开始编码
15:31
it already is coding from nucleic acids.
315
919000
3000
从核酸开始。(这些代码已经开始绘制出生物的最基本单位--核酸)
15:34
We've been doing that since, you know, since we started PCR
316
922000
3000
我们已经在做了，因为我们启动了聚合酶链式反应 (PCR)
15:37
and synthesizing small strings of DNA.
317
925000
6000
合成小段的DNA。
15:43
And real soon, we're actually going to be synthesizing the proteins,
318
931000
3000
不久我们将开始合成蛋白质，
15:46
and, like Steve showed us, that just opens an entirely new world.
319
934000
5000
就像Steve展示给我们的，这仅仅是一个全新世界的开始。
15:51
It's a world that Von Neumann himself envisioned.
320
939000
3000
冯·诺依曼所预见到的世界。
15:54
This was published after he died: his sort of unfinished notes
321
942000
3000
这是他死后发表的：他没有完成的关于自繁殖机器的笔记。
15:57
on self-reproducing machines,
322
945000
2000
这是他死后发表的：他没有完成的关于自繁殖机器的笔记。
15:59
what it takes to get the machines sort of jump-started
323
947000
3000
它会让机器进一步开始自我繁殖。
16:02
to where they begin to reproduce.
324
950000
2000
它会让机器进一步开始自我繁殖。
16:04
It took really three people:
325
952000
2000
这依靠有三个人完成：
16:06
Barricelli had the concept of the code as a living thing;
326
954000
3000
Barricelli提出了代码像生命体的概念。
16:09
Von Neumann saw how you could build the machines --
327
957000
3000
冯·诺依曼领悟到了如何建造这样的机器。
16:12
that now, last count, four million
328
960000
3000
现在每24小时就有4百万个冯·诺依曼计算机生产出来。
16:15
of these Von Neumann machines is built every 24 hours;
329
963000
3000
现在每24小时就有4百万个冯·诺依曼计算机生产出来。
16:18
and Julian Bigelow, who died 10 days ago --
330
966000
4000
Julian Bigelow十天前去世了
16:22
this is John Markoff's obituary for him --
331
970000
3000
这是John Markoff发的讣告
16:25
he was the important missing link,
332
973000
2000
他就是重要的丢失的一环，
16:27
the engineer who came in
333
975000
2000
他就是那个知道如何把真空管焊在一起工作的工程师。
16:29
and knew how to put those vacuum tubes together and make it work.
334
977000
3000
他就是那个知道如何把真空管焊在一起工作的工程师。
16:32
And all our computers have, inside them,
335
980000
2000
我们现在的所有计算机里面
16:34
the copies of the architecture that he had to just design
336
982000
4000
的芯片实际上都是在复制他某天用铅笔在纸上设计的架构。
16:38
one day, sort of on pencil and paper.
337
986000
3000
的芯片实际上都是在复制他某天用铅笔在纸上设计的架构。
16:41
And we owe a tremendous credit to that.
338
989000
2000
我们欠他很多。
16:43
And he explained, in a very generous way,
339
991000
4000
他以一种慷慨的方式解释道，
16:47
the spirit that brought all these different people to
340
995000
2000
这种精神在40年代让不同的人们来到高等研究院参与到工程中来，
16:49
the Institute for Advanced Study in the '40s to do this project,
341
997000
3000
这种精神在40年代让不同的人们来到高等研究院参与到工程中来，
16:52
and make it freely available with no patents, no restrictions,
342
1000000
3000
成果向世界公开，没有专利，没有限制，没有知识产权争端。
16:55
no intellectual property disputes to the rest of the world.
343
1003000
3000
成果向世界公开，没有专利，没有限制，没有知识产权争端。
16:58
That's the last entry in the logbook
344
1006000
3000
这是1958年7月机器关闭那一天最后一行日志。
17:01
when the machine was shut down, July 1958.
345
1009000
3000
这是1958年7月机器关闭那一天最后一行日志。
17:04
And it's Julian Bigelow who was running it until midnight
346
1012000
3000
Julian Bigelow最后运行到午夜，
17:07
when the machine was officially turned off.
347
1015000
2000
最终机器被正式关闭。
17:09
And that's the end.
348
1017000
2000
这就是结局。
17:11
Thank you very much.
349
1019000
2000
谢谢。
17:13
(Applause)
350
1021000
1000
（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
George Dyson - Historian of scienceIn telling stories of technologies and the individuals who created them, George Dyson takes a clear-eyed view of our scientific past -- while illuminating what lies ahead.
Why you should listen
The development of the Aleutian kayak, its adaptation by Russians in the 18th and 19th centuries, and his own redevelopment of the craft in the 1970s was chronicled in George Dyson’s Baidarka: The Kayak of 1986. His 1997 Darwin Among the Machines: The Evolution of Global Intelligence (“the last book about the Internet written without the Internet”) explored the history and prehistory of digital computing and telecommunications as a manifestation of the convergent destiny of organisms and machines.
Project Orion: The True Story of the Atomic Spaceship, published in 2002, assembled first-person interviews and recently declassified documents to tell the story of a path not taken into space: a nuclear-powered spaceship whose objective was to land a party of 100 people on Mars four years before we landed two people on the Moon. Turing's Cathedral: The Origins of the Digital Universe, published in 2012, illuminated the transition from numbers that mean things to numbers that do things in the aftermath of World War II.
Dyson’s current project, Analogia, is a semi-autobiographical reflection on how analog computation is re-establishing control over the digital world.
George Dyson | Speaker | TED.com