TEDGlobal 2009
Evgeny Morozov: How the Net aids dictatorships
Evgeny Morozov: Da li je Internet ono čega se bojao Orwell?
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TED Fellow i novinar Evgeny Morozov kritizira takozvani "iPod liberalizam" -- pretpostavka da tehnološke inovacije uvijek promoviraju slobodu, demokraciju -- s otrježnjujućim primjerima načina na koji Internet pomaže diktatorskim režimima da uguše disidente.
Evgeny Morozov - Internet scientist
Evgeny Morozov wants to know how the Internet has changed the conduct of global affairs, because it certainly has ... but perhaps not in all the ways we think. Full bio
Evgeny Morozov wants to know how the Internet has changed the conduct of global affairs, because it certainly has ... but perhaps not in all the ways we think. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Good morning. I think, as a grumpy Eastern European,
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Dobro jutro. Mislim da su me, kao mrzovoljnog istočnog Europljanina,
00:17
I was brought in to play the pessimist this morning. So bear with me.
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doveli da glumim pesimista ovo jutro. Pa budite strpljivi.
00:21
Well, I come from the former Soviet Republic of Belarus,
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Dakle, dolazim iz bivše Sovjetske Republike Bjelorusije,
00:24
which, as some of you may know,
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koja, kao što neki od vas znaju,
00:27
is not exactly an oasis of liberal democracy.
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nije baš oaza liberalne demokracije.
00:30
So that's why I've always been fascinated
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Upravo zato sam oduvijek bio fasciniran
00:34
with how technology could actually reshape
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načinom na koji tehnologija može preoblikovati
00:37
and open up authoritarian societies like ours.
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i otvoriti autoritarna društva poput naših.
00:40
So, I'm graduating college
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Dakle, završavam fakultet
00:42
and, feeling very idealistic,
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i, osjećajući se vrlo idealistično,
00:44
I decided to join the NGO
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odlučio sam pridružiti se nevladinoj organizaciji
00:46
which actually was using new media
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što je zapravo bilo korištenje novog medija
00:48
to promote democracy and media reform
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da se promovira demokracija i medijska reforma
00:50
in much of the former Soviet Union.
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u većem dijelu bivšeg Sovjetskog Saveza.
00:53
However, to my surprise,
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Međutim, na moje iznenađenje,
00:55
I discovered that dictatorships
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otkrio sam da se diktature
00:57
do not crumble so easily.
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ne raspadaju tako lako.
00:59
In fact, some of them actually
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Naime, neke od njih su zapravo
01:02
survived the Internet challenge,
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preživjele izazov,
01:04
and some got even more repressive.
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i neke su postale još represivnije.
01:07
So this is when I ran out of my idealism and
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Dakle, ovdje sam prestao biti idealističan i
01:10
decided to quit my NGO job
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odlučio sam dati otkaz u nevladinoj organizaciji
01:12
and actually study how the Internet could impede democratization.
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i zapravo proučavati kako Internet može spriječiti demokratizaciju.
01:17
Now, I must tell you that this was never
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Sada vam moram reći da ovo nikad nije bio
01:19
a very popular argument,
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jako popularan argument.
01:22
and it's probably not very popular yet
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I vjerojatno još nije jako popularan
01:24
with some of you sitting in this audience.
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nekima od vas koji sjede u ovoj publici.
01:26
It was never popular with many political leaders,
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Nikad nije bio popularan mnogim političkim vođama,
01:29
especially those in the United States
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osobito onima u Sjedinjenim Državama
01:31
who somehow thought that new media
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koji su na neki način mislili da će novi medij
01:33
would be able to do what missiles couldn't.
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biti sposoban učiniti ono što projektili nisu mogli.
01:37
That is, promote democracy in difficult places
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Odnosno promovirati demokraciju u problematičnim mjestima
01:40
where everything else has already been tried and failed.
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gdje je sve ostalo već bilo isprobano i nije uspjelo.
01:44
And I think by 2009,
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I mislim 2009.,
01:46
this news has finally reached Britain,
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ta je vijest napokon došla do Britanije.
01:49
so I should probably add Gordon Brown to this list as well.
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Dakle trebao bih vjerojatno dodati i Gordona Browna na ovu listu.
01:52
However, there is an underlying argument about logistics,
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Međutim, postoji temeljni argument o logistici
01:57
which has driven so much of this debate. Right?
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koja je toliko podržavala ovu raspravu. Točno?
02:00
So if you look at it close enough,
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Ako pogledate bolje,
02:02
you'll actually see that much of this
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shvatit ćete da se ovdje najviše
02:04
is about economics.
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radi o ekonomiji.
02:07
The cybertopians say, much like fax machines
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Kiberutopisti govore, slično kao faksevi
02:10
and Xerox machines did in the '80s,
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i kopirni strojevi '80-ih,
02:13
blogs and social networks
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blogovi i društvene mreže
02:15
have radically transformed the economics of protest,
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radikalno su promijenile ekonomiju protesta.
02:18
so people would inevitably rebel.
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Stoga će se ljudi neizbježno pobuniti.
02:21
To put it very simply,
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Da se najjednostavnije izrazim,
02:23
the assumption so far has been
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pretpostavka je dosada bila
02:25
that if you give people enough connectivity,
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da ako ljude dovoljno povežeš,
02:28
if you give them enough devices,
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ako im daš dovoljno naprava,
02:31
democracy will inevitably follow.
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demokracija će neizbježno uslijediti.
02:33
And to tell you the truth,
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I da vam kažem iskreno,
02:35
I never really bought into this argument,
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nikada nisam stvarno vjerovao u to,
02:38
in part because I never saw three American presidents
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djelomično zato što nikada nisam vidio tri američka predsjednika
02:41
agree on anything else in the past.
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koja se slažu oko bilo čega u prošlosti.
02:43
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
02:47
But, you know, even beyond that,
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No znate, čak s druge strane,
02:49
if you think about the logic underlying it,
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ako razmislite o logici iza svega toga,
02:51
is something I call iPod liberalism,
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to je nešto što zovem iPod liberalizam.
02:54
where we assume that every single Iranian or Chinese
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Gdje možemo pretpostaviti da svaki Iranac ili Kinez
02:58
who happens to have and love his iPod
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koji ima i voli svoj iPod
03:00
will also love liberal democracy.
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ujedno voli liberalnu demokraciju.
03:04
And again, I think this is kind of false.
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I opet, mislim da to nije točno.
03:08
But I think a much bigger problem with this
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No mislim da je veći problem u tome
03:10
is that this logic --
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što je ova logika --
03:12
that we should be dropping iPods not bombs --
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da bi trebali bacati iPodove, a ne bombe --
03:15
I mean, it would make a fascinating title
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mislim da bi to bio fascinantan naslov
03:18
for Thomas Friedman's new book.
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nove knjige Thomasa Friedmana.
03:20
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
03:21
But this is rarely a good sign. Right?
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No to je rijetko dobar znak. Zar ne?
03:25
So, the bigger problem with this logic
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Dakle, veći je problem s ovom logikom
03:29
is that it confuses the intended
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u tome da miješa predviđene
03:31
versus the actual uses of technology.
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i stvarne namjene tehnologije.
03:35
For those of you who think that
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Za one od vas koji misle da bi nam
03:37
new media of the Internet
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novi medij interneta
03:39
could somehow help us avert genocide,
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mogao nekako pomoći da spriječimo genocid,
03:42
should look no further than Rwanda,
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ne bi trebao tražiti dalje od Ruande.
03:44
where in the '90s it was actually two radio stations
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'90-ih su postojale zapravo dvije radijske postaje
03:47
which were responsible for fueling much of the ethnic hatred in the first place.
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koje su prvenstveno bile odgovorne za rasplamsavanje etničke mržnje.
03:51
But even beyond that, coming back to the Internet,
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No s druge strane, vraćajući se na Internet,
03:54
what you can actually see
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zapravo možete vidjeti
03:56
is that certain governments
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da su neke vlade
03:58
have mastered the use of cyberspace
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ovladale korištenjem kiberprostora
04:01
for propaganda purposes. Right?
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radi propagandnih ciljeva. Točno?
04:03
And they are building what I call the Spinternet.
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I one grade nešto što zovem spinternetom.
04:05
The combination of spin, on the one hand,
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Kombinacija spina, s jedne strane,
04:08
and the Internet on the other.
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i Interneta, s druge.
04:10
So governments from Russia to China to Iran
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Vlade od Rusije do Kine i Irana
04:13
are actually hiring, training and paying bloggers
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zapravo angažiraju, treniraju i plaćaju blogere
04:16
in order to leave ideological comments
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da ostave ideološke komentare
04:19
and create a lot of ideological blog posts
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i stvore puno ideoloških postova na blogu
04:21
to comment on sensitive political issues. Right?
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da komentiraju osjetljiva politička pitanja. Točno?
04:24
So you may wonder, why on Earth are they doing it?
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Vi se možete pitati pa zašto to rade?
04:28
Why are they engaging with cyberspace?
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Zašto se bave kiberprostorom?
04:30
Well my theory is that
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Moja je teorija da se
04:32
it's happening because censorship actually
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to događa zato što je cenzura zapravo
04:35
is less effective than you think it is in many of those places.
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manje učinkovita nego što mislite u tim mjestima.
04:38
The moment you put something critical in a blog,
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Onaj trenutak kad stavite nešto kritički na blog,
04:42
even if you manage to ban it immediately,
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čak i ako to uspijete odmah zabraniti,
04:45
it will still spread around thousands and thousands of other blogs.
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i dalje će se širiti tisućama i tisućama drugih blogova.
04:49
So the more you block it,
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Što to više blokirate,
04:51
the more it emboldens people to actually avoid the censorship
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više će utjecati na ljude da zapravo izbjegnu cenzuru
04:54
and thus win in this cat-and-mouse game.
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i tako pobijedi u ovoj igri mačke i miša.
04:57
So the only way to control this message
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Dakle, jedini način da se kontrolira ta poruka
05:01
is actually to try to spin it
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jest da se zapravo pokuša zavrtiti (spin)
05:03
and accuse anyone who has written something critical
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i optuži svatko tko je napisao nešto kritički
05:06
of being, for example, a CIA agent.
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da je, npr., agent CIA-e.
05:08
And, again, this is happening quite often.
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I opet, to se događa dosta često.
05:11
Just to give you an example of how it works in China, for example.
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Navest ću vam primjer kako to funkcionira u Kini.
05:15
There was a big case in February 2009
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Dogodio se veliki slučaj u veljači 2009.
05:19
called "Elude the Cat."
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po nazivu "Izbjegni mačku."
05:21
And for those of you who didn't know, I'll just give a little summary.
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I za one koji ne znaju, dat ću kratak sažetak.
05:25
So what happened is that a 24-year-old man,
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24-godišnji muškarac,
05:28
a Chinese man, died in prison custody.
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Kinez, umro je u pritvoru.
05:31
And police said that it happened
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Policija je rekla da se to dogodilo
05:34
because he was playing hide and seek,
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zato što se on igrao skrivača,
05:36
which is "elude the cat" in Chinese slang,
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što je "izbjeći mačku" u kineskom slengu,
05:39
with other inmates and hit his head
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s ostalim zatvorenicima, i udario je glavom
05:41
against the wall,
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u zid.
05:43
which was not an explanation which sat well with many Chinese bloggers.
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Što nije objašnjenje s kojim su se složili mnogi kineski blogeri.
05:50
So they immediately began posting a lot of critical comments.
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Odmah su počeli pisati puno kritičkih komentara.
05:54
In fact, QQ.com, which is a popular Chinese website,
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Naime, QQ.com, popularna kineska stranica,
05:58
had 35,000 comments
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imala je 35.000 komentara
06:00
on this issue within hours.
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o tom pitanju u roku od nekoliko sati.
06:02
But then authorities did something very smart.
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No zatim su vlasti napravile nešto vrlo lukavo.
06:05
Instead of trying to purge these comments,
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Umjesto da pokušaju ukloniti te komentare,
06:08
they instead went and reached out to the bloggers.
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obratili su se blogerima.
06:11
And they basically said, "Look guys. We'd like you to become netizen investigators."
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U osnovi su rekli, "Gledajte. Željeli bismo da postanete istraživači na Mreži."
06:16
So 500 people applied,
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500 ljudi se prijavilo
06:19
and four were selected to actually go and tour the facility in question,
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i četvero ih je odabrano da zapravo ode i pregleda sporni objekt,
06:23
and thus inspect it and then blog about it.
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i tako ga provjeri, i onda piše na blogu o tome.
06:27
Within days the entire incident was forgotten,
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Za nekoliko je dana cijeli incident bio zaboravljen,
06:30
which would have never happened if they simply tried to block the content.
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što se ne bi nikad dogodilo da su jednostavno pokušali blokirati sadržaj.
06:33
People would keep talking about it for weeks.
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Ljudi bi o tome govorili tjednima.
06:36
And this actually fits with another interesting theory
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I to se zapravo uklapa u druge zanimljive teorije
06:40
about what's happening in authoritarian states
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o tome što se događa u autoritativnim državama,
06:43
and in their cyberspace.
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i u njihovom kiberprostoru.
06:45
This is what political scientists call authoritarian deliberation,
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To je ono što politolozi zovu autoritativnim razmišljanjem.
06:48
and it happens when governments are actually reaching out to their critics
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I događa se kad se vlade zapravo obraćaju svojim kritičarima
06:53
and letting them engage with each other online.
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i dopuštaju im da zajedno surađuju jedni s drugima online.
06:55
We tend to think
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Mi težimo tome da mislimo
06:57
that somehow this is going to harm these dictatorships,
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da će to nekako naškoditi tim diktaturama,
07:00
but in many cases it only strengthens them.
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no u mnogo slučajeva to ih samo jača.
07:03
And you may wonder why.
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I vi se možete pitati zašto.
07:05
I'll just give you a very short list of reasons
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Dat ću vam jako kratak popis razloga
07:07
why authoritarian deliberation
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zašto autoritativno razmišljanje
07:10
may actually help the dictators.
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može zapravo pomoći diktatorima.
07:12
And first it's quite simple.
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I prvi je dosta jednostavan.
07:14
Most of them operate in a complete information vacuum.
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Većina njih djeluje u potpunom informacijskom vakuumu.
07:17
They don't really have the data they need
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Oni zapravo nemaju podatke koje trebaju
07:20
in order to identify emerging threats facing the regime.
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da bi identificirali nastale prijetnje s kojima se suočava režim.
07:23
So encouraging people to actually go online
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Ohrabrivati ljude da zapravo idu online
07:26
and share information and data
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i dijele informaciju i podatke
07:28
on blogs and wikis is great
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na blogovima i wikijima je odlično
07:30
because otherwise, low level apparatchiks and bureaucrats
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zato što će inače, niskopozicionirani aparatčiki i birokrati
07:33
will continue concealing what's actually happening in the country, right?
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nastaviti sakrivati što se doista događa u zemlji, zar ne?
07:37
So from this perspective, having blogs and wikis
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Iz ove perspektive, postojanje blogova i wikija
07:39
produce knowledge has been great.
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koji stvaraju znanje je sjajno.
07:41
Secondly, involving public in any decision making
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Drugo, uključivanje publike u bilo koje donošenje odluka
07:44
is also great
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također je sjajno
07:46
because it helps you to share the blame
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zato što vam pomaže da dijelite krivnju
07:48
for the policies which eventually fail.
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za politike koje eventualno ne uspiju.
07:50
Because they say, "Well look, we asked you,
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Zato što kažu, "Gledajte, pitali smo vas,
07:52
we consulted you, you voted on it.
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savjetovali se s vama, glasali ste za to.
07:54
You put it on the front page of your blog.
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Vi to stavljate na prednju stranu svog bloga.
07:56
Well, great. You are the one who is to blame."
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Pa, dobro. Vi ste jedini koji se može okriviti."
07:59
And finally, the purpose of
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I napokon, svrha je
08:02
any authoritarian deliberation efforts
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bilo kojih nastojanja autoritativnog razmišljanja
08:04
is usually to increase the legitimacy of the regimes, both at home and abroad.
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obično da povećaju zakonitost režima, i kod kuće i u inozemstvu.
08:07
So inviting people to all sorts of public forums,
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Pozivanje ljudi na sve vrste javnih foruma,
08:11
having them participate in decision making,
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njihovo sudjelovanje u donošenju odluka,
08:13
it's actually great.
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zapravo je odlično.
08:15
Because what happens is that then
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Zato što tada
08:17
you can actually point to this initiative and say,
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možete zapravo ukazati na tu inicijativu i reći,
08:19
"Well, we are having a democracy. We are having a forum."
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"Dobro, mi imamo demokraciju. Mi imamo forum."
08:22
Just to give you an example,
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Navest ću vam primjer,
08:24
one of the Russian regions, for example,
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jedna ruska regija, na primjer,
08:26
now involves its citizens
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sada uključuje svoje građane
08:28
in planning its strategy up until year 2020.
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u planiranje svoje strategije do 2020. godine.
08:32
Right? So they can go online
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Točno? Oni mogu ići online
08:34
and contribute ideas on what that region would look like by the year 2020.
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i doprinijeti idejama o tome kako bi regija trebala izgledati do 2020. godine.
08:38
I mean, anyone who has been to Russia would know
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Mislim, svatko tko je bio u Rusiji zna
08:40
that there was no planning in Russia for the next month.
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da tamo nema planiranja za sljedeći mjesec.
08:43
So having people involved in planning for 2020
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Dakle, uključivanje ljudi u planiranje za 2020.
08:46
is not necessarily going to change anything,
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neće nužno promijeniti nešto.
08:48
because the dictators are still the ones who control the agenda.
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Zato što su diktatori ti koji kontroliraju dnevni red.
08:52
Just to give you an example from Iran,
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Navest ću vam primjer iz Irana.
08:54
we all heard about the Twitter revolution
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Svi smo čuli za Twitter revoluciju
08:56
that happened there,
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koja se tamo dogodila.
08:58
but if you look close enough, you'll actually see
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No ako pobliže pogledate, zapravo ćete vidjeti
09:00
that many of the networks and blogs
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da je puno mreža i blogova
09:02
and Twitter and Facebook were actually operational.
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i Twitter i Facebook, zapravo operativno.
09:05
They may have become slower,
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Možda su postali sporiji,
09:07
but the activists could still access it
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no aktivisti su im još mogli pristupiti
09:09
and actually argue that having access to them
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i zapravo raspravljati da je pristup njima
09:11
is actually great for many authoritarian states.
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ustvari odličan za mnoge autoritativne države.
09:14
And it's great simply because
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I odlično je jednostavno zato što
09:17
they can gather open source intelligence.
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mogu okupiti inteligenciju otvorenog koda.
09:21
In the past it would take you weeks, if not months,
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U prošlosti su vam trebali tjedni, ako ne i mjeseci,
09:24
to identify how Iranian activists connect to each other.
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da otkrijete kako se iranski aktivisti međusobno povezuju.
09:27
Now you actually know how they connect to each other
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Sada zapravo znate kako se međusobno povezuju
09:29
by looking at their Facebook page.
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gledajući njihovu stranicu na Facebook-u.
09:31
I mean KGB, and not just KGB,
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KGB, i ne samo KGB,
09:33
used to torture in order to actually get this data.
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mučio je da dođe do tih podataka.
09:36
Now it's all available online.
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Sada je sve dostupno online.
09:38
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
09:40
But I think the biggest conceptual pitfall
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No mislim da je najveća konceptualna zamka
09:42
that cybertopians made
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koju rade kiberutopisti
09:44
is when it comes to digital natives, people who have grown up online.
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ta kad se radi o digitalnim starosjediocima, ljudima koji su odrasli online.
09:47
We often hear about cyber activism,
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Često čujemo o kibernetičkom aktivizmu,
09:50
how people are getting more active because of the Internet.
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kako ljudi postaju aktivniji zbog Interneta.
09:53
Rarely hear about cyber hedonism, for example,
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Rijetko čujemo o kibernetičkom hedonizmu, na primjer,
09:55
how people are becoming passive.
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kako ljudi postaju pasivniji.
09:57
Why? Because they somehow assume that the Internet
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Zašto? Zato što nekako pretpostavljaju da će Internet
09:59
is going to be the catalyst of change
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biti katalizator promjene
10:01
that will push young people into the streets,
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koja će gurnuti mlade ljude na ulice,
10:03
while in fact it may actually be the new opium for the masses
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dok će ustvari možda biti novi opijum za mase
10:06
which will keep the same people in their rooms downloading pornography.
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koji će držati iste ljude u njihovim sobama da preuzimaju pornografiju.
10:09
That's not an option being considered too strongly.
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Ta se opcija previše ne razmatra.
10:13
So for every digital renegade that is revolting in the streets of Tehran,
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Za svakog digitalnog odmetnika koji diže ustanak na ulicama Teherana,
10:16
there may as well be two digital captives
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postoje možda dva digitalna zarobljenika
10:18
who are actually rebelling only in the World of Warcraft.
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koji se ustvari bune samo u igri World of Warcraft.
10:21
And this is realistic. And there is nothing wrong about it
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I to je realno. I tu nema ničeg pogrešnog
10:23
because the Internet has greatly empowered many of these young people
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zato što je Internet uvelike osnažio mnoge od tih mladih ljudi.
10:27
and it plays a completely different social role for them.
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I to ima potpuno drugačiju socijalnu ulogu za njih.
10:29
If you look at some of the surveys
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Ako pogledate neke od anketa
10:31
on how the young people actually benefit from the Internet,
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o tome kakvu korist od interneta zapravo imaju mladi ljudi,
10:34
you'll see that the number of teenagers in China, for example,
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vidjet ćete da je broj tinejdžera u Kini, na primjer,
10:37
for whom the Internet actually broadens their sex life,
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za koje Internet ustvari proširuje njihov seksualni život,
10:40
is three times more than in the United States.
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tri puta veći nego u Sjedinjenim Državama.
10:43
So it does play a social role,
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To doista igra socijalnu ulogu,
10:45
however it may not necessarily lead to political engagement.
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međutim nužno ne dovodi do političkog angažmana.
10:48
So the way I tend to think of it
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Dakle, način na koji težim misliti je
10:50
is like a hierarchy of cyber-needs in space,
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poput hijerarhije kibernetičkih potreba u prostoru.
10:52
a total rip-off from Abraham Maslow.
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Totalno potkradanje Abrahama Maslowa.
10:54
But the point here is that
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Poanta je u tome da
10:56
when we get the remote Russian village online,
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kad postavimo zabačeno rusko selo online,
10:59
what will get people to the Internet
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ono što će privući ljude na Internet
11:01
is not going to be the reports from Human Rights Watch.
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nisu izvještaji nevladine organizacije Human Rights Watch.
11:03
It's going to be pornography, "Sex and the City,"
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To će biti pornografija, Seks u gradu,
11:06
or maybe watching funny videos of cats.
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ili možda gledanje smiješnih videa mačaka.
11:09
So this is something you have to recognize.
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To je nešto što morate prepoznati.
11:11
So what should we do about it?
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Što bismo trebali učiniti u svezi s tim?
11:13
Well I say we have to stop thinking
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Ja kažem da moramo prestati razmišljati
11:15
about the number of iPods per capita
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o broju iPod-ova po čovjeku
11:18
and start thinking about ways in which
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i početi razmišljati o načinima na koje
11:20
we can empower intellectuals,
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možemo osnažiti intelektualce,
11:23
dissidents, NGOs and then the members of civil society.
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disidente, nevladine organizacije, i tek tada pripadnike građanskog društva.
11:26
Because even what has been happening up 'til now
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Zato što čak ono što se do sada događalo
11:29
with the Spinternet and authoritarian deliberation,
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sa spinternetom i autoritativnim razmišljanjem,
11:31
there is a great chance that those voices will not be heard.
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postoji velika mogućnost da se ti glasovi neće čuti.
11:34
So I think we should shatter some of our utopian assumptions
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Mislim da bi trebali razbiti neke od naših utopijskih pretpostavki
11:37
and actually start doing something about it.
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i ustvari poduzeti nešto u svezi s tim.
11:39
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
11:41
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Evgeny Morozov - Internet scientistEvgeny Morozov wants to know how the Internet has changed the conduct of global affairs, because it certainly has ... but perhaps not in all the ways we think.
Why you should listen
Writer Evgeny Morozov studies the political and social aspects of the Internet. Right now, he's working on a book about the Internet's role in politics -- and especially how the Web influences civic engagement and regime stability in authoritarian, closed societies or in countries "in transition."
Morozov writes the much-quoted Foreign Policy blog Net.Effect, and is known for debunking -- with facts, figures and sound research -- myths and media-bandwagon assumptions about the impact of the Internet and mobile technologies on politics and society. We all want to be cyber-optimists, assuming that free societies necessarily follow from free data. Morozov is careful to say that it's not quite that simple: yes, social change can be empowered by new tech, but so can the policies of repressive regimes. Morozov attended TEDGlobal 2009 as one of 25 TEDGlobal Fellows.
Evgeny Morozov | Speaker | TED.com