TED1994
Danny Hillis: Back to the future (of 1994)
Danny Hillis: Inapoi in viitor (din 1994)
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Din adancul arhivei TED, Danny Hillis evidentiaza o teorie intriganta despre cum si de ce schimbarile tehnologice par sa se accelereze, legand teoria de insasi evolutia vietii. Tehnicile de prezentare pot parea invechite, dar ideile sunt mai relevante ca niciodata.
Danny Hillis - Computer theorist
Inventor, scientist, author, engineer -- over his broad career, Danny Hillis has turned his ever-searching brain on an array of subjects, with surprising results. Full bio
Inventor, scientist, author, engineer -- over his broad career, Danny Hillis has turned his ever-searching brain on an array of subjects, with surprising results. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Because I usually take the role
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Pentru ca imi asum de obicei rolul
00:18
of trying to explain to people
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de a incerca sa explic oamenilor
00:20
how wonderful the new technologies
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cat de extraordinare vor fi noile tehnologii
00:23
that are coming along are going to be,
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care vor aparea
00:25
and I thought that, since I was among friends here,
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si m-am gandit ca, fiind intre prieteni aici,
00:28
I would tell you what I really think
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sa va spun ce cred cu adevarat
00:32
and try to look back and try to understand
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si sa incerc sa privesc inapoi si sa inteleg
00:34
what is really going on here
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ce se intampla de fapt aici
00:37
with these amazing jumps in technology
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cu aceste salturi extraordinare in tehnologie
00:42
that seem so fast that we can barely keep on top of it.
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care se deruleaza asa de repede incat abia mai putem tine pasul cu ele.
00:45
So I'm going to start out
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Asa ca voi incepe
00:47
by showing just one very boring technology slide.
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prin a arata o prezentare despre tehnologie.
00:50
And then, so if you can just turn on the slide that's on.
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Si apoi, daca puteti da drumul prezentarii.
00:56
This is just a random slide
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Aceasta prezentare este
00:58
that I picked out of my file.
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una aleasa la intamplare.
01:00
What I want to show you is not so much the details of the slide,
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Ceea ce vreau sa va arat nu sunt atat detaliile prezentarii,
01:03
but the general form of it.
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ci forma ei generala.
01:05
This happens to be a slide of some analysis that we were doing
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Aceasta prezentare se refera la o analiza facuta
01:08
about the power of RISC microprocessors
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despre puterea microprocesoarelor RISC
01:11
versus the power of local area networks.
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contra puterii retelelor locale.
01:14
And the interesting thing about it
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Si ce este interesant la prezentare
01:16
is that this slide,
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este ca aceasta,
01:18
like so many technology slides that we're used to,
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ca multe altele de felul ei cu care suntem obisnuiti,
01:21
is a sort of a straight line
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este o linie dreapta
01:23
on a semi-log curve.
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intr-un grafic semilogaritmic.
01:25
In other words, every step here
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Cu alte cuvinte, fiecare pas de aici
01:27
represents an order of magnitude
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reprezinta o magnitudine
01:29
in performance scale.
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pe scara performantei.
01:31
And this is a new thing
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Si acesta este un lucru nou
01:33
that we talk about technology
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sa vorbim despre tehnologie
01:35
on semi-log curves.
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pe grafice semilogaritmice.
01:37
Something really weird is going on here.
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`
01:39
And that's basically what I'm going to be talking about.
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Si despre asta voi vorbi de fapt.
01:42
So, if you could bring up the lights.
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Deci, daca puteti lumina sus.
01:47
If you could bring up the lights higher,
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Daca puteti lumina mai sus,
01:49
because I'm just going to use a piece of paper here.
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pentru ca voi folosi o bucata de hartie.
01:52
Now why do we draw technology curves
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Acum de ce desenam grafice tehnologice
01:54
in semi-log curves?
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in grafice semilogaritmice?
01:56
Well the answer is, if I drew it on a normal curve
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Ei bine raspunsul este, daca as desena pe un grafic normal
01:59
where, let's say, this is years,
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unde, sa spunem, acestia sunt anii,
02:01
this is time of some sort,
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acesta este un fel de timp,
02:03
and this is whatever measure of the technology
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si aceasta este masura tehnologiei
02:06
that I'm trying to graph,
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pe care incerc sa o desenez,
02:09
the graphs look sort of silly.
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diagramele par stupide.
02:12
They sort of go like this.
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Arata cam asa.
02:15
And they don't tell us much.
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Si nu ne spun prea multe.
02:18
Now if I graph, for instance,
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Acum daca desenez, de exemplu,
02:21
some other technology, say transportation technology,
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alte tehnologii, de exemplu tehnologia transportului,
02:23
on a semi-log curve,
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pe un tabel semilogaritmic,
02:25
it would look very stupid, it would look like a flat line.
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ar arata foarte stupid, ca o linie dreapta.
02:28
But when something like this happens,
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Dar cand se intampla ceva de genul acesta,
02:30
things are qualitatively changing.
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calitatea lucrurilor se imbunatateste.
02:32
So if transportation technology
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Deci daca tehnologia transportului
02:34
was moving along as fast as microprocessor technology,
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s-ar dezvolta la fel de repede ca cea a microprocesoarelor,
02:37
then the day after tomorrow,
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atunci poimaine,
02:39
I would be able to get in a taxi cab
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as putea sa ma urc intr-un taxi
02:41
and be in Tokyo in 30 seconds.
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si sa ajung in Tokio in 30 de secunde.
02:43
It's not moving like that.
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Nu se intampla asa.
02:45
And there's nothing precedented
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Si nu exista precedent
02:47
in the history of technology development
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in istoria dezvoltarii tehnologice
02:49
of this kind of self-feeding growth
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a unei astfel de auto-crestere
02:51
where you go by orders of magnitude every few years.
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unde vorbim de magnitudine la fiecare cativa ani.
02:54
Now the question that I'd like to ask is,
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Acum intrebarea mea este,
02:57
if you look at these exponential curves,
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daca te uiti la aceste grafice exponentiale
03:00
they don't go on forever.
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nu continua la nesfarsit.
03:03
Things just can't possibly keep changing
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Lucrurile nu pot fi intr-o continua schimbare
03:06
as fast as they are.
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in ritmul alert in care o fac.
03:08
One of two things is going to happen.
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Unul din doua lucruri se va intampla.
03:11
Either it's going to turn into a sort of classical S-curve like this,
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Fie se va transforma intr-un grafic in forma de S ca acesta,
03:15
until something totally different comes along,
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pana cand apare ceva cu totul diferit,
03:19
or maybe it's going to do this.
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sau poate va face asta.
03:21
That's about all it can do.
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Asta este cam tot ce poate face.
03:23
Now I'm an optimist,
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Eu sunt un optimist,
03:25
so I sort of think it's probably going to do something like that.
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deci cred ca va fi cam asa.
03:28
If so, that means that what we're in the middle of right now
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Daca este asa, suntem in mijlocul
03:31
is a transition.
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unei tranzitii.
03:33
We're sort of on this line
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Suntem pe aceasta linie
03:35
in a transition from the way the world used to be
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in tranzitia dintre cum era lumea
03:37
to some new way that the world is.
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si noua ei forma.
03:40
And so what I'm trying to ask, what I've been asking myself,
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Si ceea ce incerc sa intreb, ce m-am intrebat pe mine insumi,
03:43
is what's this new way that the world is?
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este cum este aceasta noua lume?
03:46
What's that new state that the world is heading toward?
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Care este acea stare noua catre care se indreapta lumea?
03:49
Because the transition seems very, very confusing
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Pentru ca tranzitia pare foarte derutanta
03:52
when we're right in the middle of it.
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cand suntem exact in mijlocul ei.
03:54
Now when I was a kid growing up,
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Cand eram copil,
03:57
the future was kind of the year 2000,
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viitorul era ca anul 2000,
04:00
and people used to talk about what would happen in the year 2000.
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si oamenii vorbeau despre ce se va intampla in 2000.
04:04
Now here's a conference
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Aceasta este o conferinta
04:06
in which people talk about the future,
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in care oamenii vorbesc despre viitor,
04:08
and you notice that the future is still at about the year 2000.
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si remarcati ca viitorul face referire tot la anul 2000.
04:11
It's about as far as we go out.
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Cam atat de departe mergem.
04:13
So in other words, the future has kind of been shrinking
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Cu alte cuvinte viitorul s-a cam micsorat
04:16
one year per year
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an dupa an
04:19
for my whole lifetime.
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pe parcursul intregii mele vieti.
04:22
Now I think that the reason
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Cred ca motivul
04:24
is because we all feel
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este ca simtim cu totii
04:26
that something's happening there.
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ca se va intampla ceva acolo.
04:28
That transition is happening. We can all sense it.
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Acea tranzitie se petrece. Cu totii o simtim.
04:30
And we know that it just doesn't make too much sense
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Si stim ca nu are prea mult sens
04:32
to think out 30, 50 years
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sa ne gandim peste 30, 50 de ani
04:34
because everything's going to be so different
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pentru ca totul va fi asa de diferit
04:37
that a simple extrapolation of what we're doing
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ca o simpla extrapolare a ceea ce facem
04:39
just doesn't make any sense at all.
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nu are nici un sens.
04:42
So what I would like to talk about
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Deci as dori sa vorbesc despre
04:44
is what that could be,
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ce ar putea fi,
04:46
what that transition could be that we're going through.
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ce ar putea fi acea tranzitie prin ceea ce trecem.
04:49
Now in order to do that
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Pentru a putea face asta
04:52
I'm going to have to talk about a bunch of stuff
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va trebui sa vorbesc despre multe lucruri
04:54
that really has nothing to do
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care nu au de a face
04:56
with technology and computers.
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cu tehnologia si computerele.
04:58
Because I think the only way to understand this
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Deoarece cred ca singurul mod de a intelege asta
05:00
is to really step back
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este sa faci un pas inapoi
05:02
and take a long time scale look at things.
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si sa privesti lucrurile prin dimensiunea timpului.
05:04
So the time scale that I would like to look at this on
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Deci scara temporala la care as dori sa privim
05:07
is the time scale of life on Earth.
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este aceea a vietii pe pamant.
05:13
So I think this picture makes sense
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Deci cred ca aceasta imagine are sens
05:15
if you look at it a few billion years at a time.
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daca facem referire la ea odata la cateva miliarde de ani.
05:19
So if you go back
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Deci daca mergi inapoi
05:21
about two and a half billion years,
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acum doua miliarde si jumatate de ani,
05:23
the Earth was this big, sterile hunk of rock
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Pamantul era o bucata mare de roca sterila
05:26
with a lot of chemicals floating around on it.
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cu multe chimicale plutind in jurul sau.
05:29
And if you look at the way
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Iar daca privim felul in care
05:31
that the chemicals got organized,
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chimicalele s-au organizat,
05:33
we begin to get a pretty good idea of how they do it.
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incepem sa intelegem destul de bine cum o fac.
05:36
And I think that there's theories that are beginning to understand
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Si cred ca sunt teorii care incep sa inteleaga
05:39
about how it started with RNA,
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cum a inceput RNA
05:41
but I'm going to tell a sort of simple story of it,
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dar voi spune o poveste simpla despre asta,
05:44
which is that, at that time,
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si anume, ca la acea data
05:46
there were little drops of oil floating around
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erau picaturi mici de ulei care pluteau
05:49
with all kinds of different recipes of chemicals in them.
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cu tot felul de diferite retete chimice in ele.
05:52
And some of those drops of oil
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Si unele dintre acele stropi de ulei
05:54
had a particular combination of chemicals in them
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aveau o combinatie de chimicale mai deosebita
05:56
which caused them to incorporate chemicals from the outside
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care a cauzat incorporarea chimicalelor exterioare
05:59
and grow the drops of oil.
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si cresterea picaturilor de ulei.
06:02
And those that were like that
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Si cele care erau asa
06:04
started to split and divide.
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au inceput sa se separe si sa se divida.
06:06
And those were the most primitive forms of cells in a sense,
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Si acelea au fost cele mai primitive celule intr-un fel,
06:09
those little drops of oil.
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acele picaturi de ulei.
06:11
But now those drops of oil weren't really alive, as we say it now,
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Dar acele picaturi nu erau cu adevarat in viata, cum spunem acum,
06:14
because every one of them
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pentru ca fiecare dintre ele
06:16
was a little random recipe of chemicals.
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era o reteta de chimicale aleatorie.
06:18
And every time it divided,
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Si ori de cate ori se diviza,
06:20
they got sort of unequal division
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aveau o diviziune inegala
06:23
of the chemicals within them.
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a chimicalelor din interior.
06:25
And so every drop was a little bit different.
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Deci fiecare picatura era putin diferita.
06:28
In fact, the drops that were different in a way
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De fapt picaturile care erau diferite intr-un fel
06:30
that caused them to be better
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care le facea sa fie mai bune
06:32
at incorporating chemicals around them,
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la incorporarea chimicalelor din jurul lor,
06:34
grew more and incorporated more chemicals and divided more.
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cresteau mai mult si incorporau mai multe chimicale divizandu-se mai mult.
06:37
So those tended to live longer,
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Deci cele mai longevive,
06:39
get expressed more.
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sunt mai exprimate.
06:42
Now that's sort of just a very simple
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Acesta este o simpla
06:45
chemical form of life,
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forma chimica de viata,
06:47
but when things got interesting
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dar lucrurile au devenit interesante
06:50
was when these drops
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cand aceste picaturi
06:52
learned a trick about abstraction.
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au invatat ce inseamna abstractia.
06:55
Somehow by ways that we don't quite understand,
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Cumva, prin moduri pe care nu le prea intelegem,
06:58
these little drops learned to write down information.
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aceste picaturi au invatat sa scrie informatia.
07:01
They learned to record the information
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Au invatat sa inregistreze informatia
07:03
that was the recipe of the cell
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care era reteta celulei
07:05
onto a particular kind of chemical
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pe o anume chimicala
07:07
called DNA.
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numita ADN.
07:09
So in other words, they worked out,
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Cu alte cuvinte, au creat,
07:11
in this mindless sort of evolutionary way,
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in evolutia lor haotica,
07:14
a form of writing that let them write down what they were,
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o forma a scrisului care le permite sa transmita ce erau
07:17
so that that way of writing it down could get copied.
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fiind posibila copierea.
07:20
The amazing thing is that that way of writing
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Uimitor este faptul ca acea forma de scriere
07:23
seems to have stayed steady
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pare sa fi ramas stabila
07:25
since it evolved two and a half billion years ago.
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de la evolutia sa de acum doua miliarde si jumatate de ani.
07:27
In fact the recipe for us, our genes,
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De fapt reteta genelor noastre,
07:30
is exactly that same code and that same way of writing.
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este exact acelasi cod scris in acelasi fel.
07:33
In fact, every living creature is written
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In fapt codul fiecarei creaturi este scris
07:36
in exactly the same set of letters and the same code.
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cu aceleasi litere care sunt la fel.
07:38
In fact, one of the things that I did
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De fapt, unul dintre lucrurile pe care le-am facut,
07:40
just for amusement purposes
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doar pentru amuzament,
07:42
is we can now write things in this code.
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este ca putem sa scriem lucruri in acest cod.
07:44
And I've got here a little 100 micrograms of white powder,
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Am aici 100 micrograme de pudra alba,
07:50
which I try not to let the security people see at airports.
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pe care incerc sa o ascund de paza din aeroport.
07:54
(Laughter)
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(hohote de ras)
07:56
But this has in it --
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Dar aceasta contine--
07:58
what I did is I took this code --
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ce am facut a fost sa iau acest cod--
08:00
the code has standard letters that we use for symbolizing it --
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codul are litere standard folosite pentru a-l simboliza--
08:03
and I wrote my business card onto a piece of DNA
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si mi-am scris cartea de vizita pe o bucata de ADN
08:06
and amplified it 10 to the 22 times.
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si am amplificat-o de 10 pana la 22 de ori.
08:09
So if anyone would like a hundred million copies of my business card,
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Daca doreste cineva o suta de milioane de copii ale cartii mele de vizita,
08:12
I have plenty for everyone in the room,
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am destule pentru toti cei de aici,
08:14
and, in fact, everyone in the world,
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si pentru intreaga populatie,
08:16
and it's right here.
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chiar aici.
08:19
(Laughter)
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(hohote de ras)
08:26
If I had really been a egotist,
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Daca as fi fost intr-adevar un egocentric,
08:28
I would have put it into a virus and released it in the room.
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l-as fi pus intr-un virus si l-as fi eliberat in incapere.
08:31
(Laughter)
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(hohote de ras)
08:39
So what was the next step?
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Deci care era urmatorul pas?
08:41
Writing down the DNA was an interesting step.
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Scrierea ADN-ului a fost interesanta.
08:43
And that caused these cells --
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Si a dus la aparitia acestor celule--
08:45
that kept them happy for another billion years.
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lucru care le-a bucurat inca un miliard de ani.
08:47
But then there was another really interesting step
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Dar a existat un alt pas foarte interesant
08:49
where things became completely different,
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cand lucrurile s-au schimbat complet,
08:52
which is these cells started exchanging and communicating information,
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adica momentul in care celulele au inceput sa comunice si sa faca schimb de informatii,
08:55
so that they began to get communities of cells.
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creand comunitati de celule.
08:57
I don't know if you know this,
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Nu stiu daca stiti,
08:59
but bacteria can actually exchange DNA.
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dar bacteriile pot chiar si sa schimbe ADN-ul.
09:01
Now that's why, for instance,
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De aceea, spre exemplu,
09:03
antibiotic resistance has evolved.
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rezistenta la antibiotice a evoluat.
09:05
Some bacteria figured out how to stay away from penicillin,
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Unele bacterii si-au dat seama cum sa se fereasca de penicilina,
09:08
and it went around sort of creating its little DNA information
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si a inceput sa isi creeze propria mini informatie ADN
09:11
with other bacteria,
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cu alte bacterii,
09:13
and now we have a lot of bacteria that are resistant to penicillin,
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avand acum multe bacterii rezistente la penicilina,
09:16
because bacteria communicate.
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pentru ca bacteriile comunica.
09:18
Now what this communication allowed
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Aceasta comunicare a permis
09:20
was communities to form
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formarea de comunitati
09:22
that, in some sense, were in the same boat together;
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aflate , oarecum, in aceeasi barca
09:24
they were synergistic.
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fiind sinergetice.
09:26
So they survived
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Deci au supravietuit
09:28
or they failed together,
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sau au dat gres impreuna,
09:30
which means that if a community was very successful,
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adica daca o comunitate avea mult succes,
09:32
all the individuals in that community
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toti indivizii acelei comunitati
09:34
were repeated more
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se multiplicau
09:36
and they were favored by evolution.
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si erau favorizati de evolutie.
09:39
Now the transition point happened
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Punctul de tranzitie a urmat
09:41
when these communities got so close
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cand aceste comunitati s-au apropiat asa de mult
09:43
that, in fact, they got together
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incat, de fapt, s-au reunit
09:45
and decided to write down the whole recipe for the community
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si au decis sa scrie intreaga reteta pentru comunitate
09:48
together on one string of DNA.
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pe un singur ADN.
09:51
And so the next stage that's interesting in life
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Urmatorul pas interesant al vietii
09:53
took about another billion years.
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a durat un alt miliard de ani.
09:55
And at that stage,
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In aceasta etapa,
09:57
we have multi-cellular communities,
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avem comunitati multi-celulare,
09:59
communities of lots of different types of cells,
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comunitati cu multe tipuri diferite de celule,
10:01
working together as a single organism.
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care lucreaza impreuna ca un singur organism.
10:03
And in fact, we're such a multi-cellular community.
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Si de fapt, suntem o astfel de comunitate multicelulara.
10:06
We have lots of cells
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Avem multe celule
10:08
that are not out for themselves anymore.
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care nu mai sunt independente.
10:10
Your skin cell is really useless
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Celula pielii este nefolositoare
10:13
without a heart cell, muscle cell,
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fara o celula a inimii, a muschilor,
10:15
a brain cell and so on.
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a creierului si asa mai departe.
10:17
So these communities began to evolve
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Deci aceste comunitati au inceput sa evolueze
10:19
so that the interesting level on which evolution was taking place
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in asa fel incat nivelul interesant la care lua loc evolutia
10:22
was no longer a cell,
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nu mai era celula,
10:24
but a community which we call an organism.
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.
10:28
Now the next step that happened
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Urmatoarea schimbare a avut loc
10:30
is within these communities.
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in aceste comunitati.
10:32
These communities of cells,
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Aceste comunitati de celule,
10:34
again, began to abstract information.
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au inceput din nou sa extraga informatii.
10:36
And they began building very special structures
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Si au inceput sa construiasca structuri foarte speciale
10:39
that did nothing but process information within the community.
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care nu faceau nimic in afara procesarii informatiilor in comunitate.
10:42
And those are the neural structures.
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Si acelea sunt structurile neurologice.
10:44
So neurons are the information processing apparatus
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Deci neuronii reprezinta dispozitivul procesator de informatie
10:47
that those communities of cells built up.
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construit de comunitatile de celule.
10:50
And in fact, they began to get specialists in the community
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Si au inceput sa aiba specialisti in comunitate
10:52
and special structures
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si structuri speciale
10:54
that were responsible for recording,
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care erau responsabile cu inregistrarea,
10:56
understanding, learning information.
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intelegerea, invatarea informatiilor.
10:59
And that was the brains and the nervous system
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Si acelea reprezentau creierul si sistemul nervos
11:01
of those communities.
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al acelor comunitati.
11:03
And that gave them an evolutionary advantage.
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Acest lucru le-a dat un avantaj evolutionar.
11:05
Because at that point,
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Deoarece in acest punct,
11:08
an individual --
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un individ--
11:11
learning could happen
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procesul de invatare putea avea loc
11:13
within the time span of a single organism,
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in intervalul de timp al unui singur organism,
11:15
instead of over this evolutionary time span.
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in loc de intervalul de timp al evolutiei.
11:18
So an organism could, for instance,
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Deci un organism, ar putea spre exemplu,
11:20
learn not to eat a certain kind of fruit
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sa invete sa nu manance un anumit fel de fruct
11:22
because it tasted bad and it got sick last time it ate it.
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pentru ca avea gust rau si l-a imbolnavit data trecuta cand l-a mancat.
11:26
That could happen within the lifetime of a single organism,
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Acel lucru s-ar putea intampla de-a lungul vietii unui singur organism,
11:29
whereas before they'd built these special information processing structures,
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pe cand inainte ar fi construit aceste structuri speciale de procesare a informatiilor,
11:33
that would have had to be learned evolutionarily
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care ar fi trebuit sa fie invatate evolutionar
11:35
over hundreds of thousands of years
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de-a lungul a sute de mii de ani
11:38
by the individuals dying off that ate that kind of fruit.
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de catre indivizii care au murit pentru ca au mancat acel tip de fruct.
11:41
So that nervous system,
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Deci acel sistem nervos,
11:43
the fact that they built these special information structures,
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faptul ca au construit aceste structuri speciale de informatie,
11:46
tremendously sped up the whole process of evolution.
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a grabit mult intreg procesul de evolutie.
11:49
Because evolution could now happen within an individual.
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Pentru ca evolutia se putea manifesta acum in individ.
11:52
It could happen in learning time scales.
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S-ar putea intampla in perioade de invatare
11:55
But then what happened
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Dar ce s-a petrecut apoi
11:57
was the individuals worked out,
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a fost faptul ca indivizii au creat,
11:59
of course, tricks of communicating.
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desigur, trucuri pentru a comunica.
12:01
And for example,
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Si spre exemplu,
12:03
the most sophisticated version that we're aware of is human language.
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cea mai sofisticata versiune pe care o cunoastem este limbajul uman.
12:06
It's really a pretty amazing invention if you think about it.
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Este de fapt o inventie destul de remarcabila daca te gandesti.
12:09
Here I have a very complicated, messy,
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Am o foarte complicata, dezordonata,
12:11
confused idea in my head.
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confuza idee in cap.
12:14
I'm sitting here making grunting sounds basically,
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Stau aici mormaind practic,
12:17
and hopefully constructing a similar messy, confused idea in your head
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si sper sa creez o idee la fel de dezordonata si confuza in capul vostru
12:20
that bears some analogy to it.
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care are o oarecare analogie.
12:22
But we're taking something very complicated,
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Dar luam ceva foarte complicat,
12:24
turning it into sound, sequences of sounds,
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il transformam in sunete, secvente de sunete,
12:27
and producing something very complicated in your brain.
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si producem ceva foarte complicat in creierul tau.
12:31
So this allows us now
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Deci asta ne permite acum
12:33
to begin to start functioning
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sa incepem sa functionam
12:35
as a single organism.
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ca un singur organism.
12:38
And so, in fact, what we've done
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Ceea ce am facut, de fapt,
12:41
is we, humanity,
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este ca noi umanitatea,
12:43
have started abstracting out.
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am inceput sa extragem.
12:45
We're going through the same levels
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trecem prin aceleasi etape
12:47
that multi-cellular organisms have gone through --
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prin care au trecut si organismele multi-celulare--
12:49
abstracting out our methods of recording,
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prin crearea propriilor metode de inregistrare,
12:52
presenting, processing information.
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prezentare, procesare de informatii.
12:54
So for example, the invention of language
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Deci, spre exemplu, inventia limbajului
12:56
was a tiny step in that direction.
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a fost un pas minuscul in acea directie.
12:59
Telephony, computers,
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Telefonia, computerele,
13:01
videotapes, CD-ROMs and so on
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casetele video, CD-ROMurile, si asa mai departe
13:04
are all our specialized mechanisms
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sunt toate mecanismele noastre specializate
13:06
that we've now built within our society
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pe care le-am construit in societatea noastra
13:08
for handling that information.
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pentru a lucra cu acea informatie.
13:10
And it all connects us together
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Si ne conecteaza unii cu altii
13:13
into something
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in ceva
13:15
that is much bigger
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care este mult mai mare
13:17
and much faster
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si mult mai rapid
13:19
and able to evolve
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si capabil de evolutie
13:21
than what we were before.
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decat ce am fost inainte.
13:23
So now, evolution can take place
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Asa ca acum evolutia poate avea loc
13:25
on a scale of microseconds.
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pe o scara a microsecundelor.
13:27
And you saw Ty's little evolutionary example
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Si ati vazut micul exemplu evolutionar al lui Ty
13:29
where he sort of did a little bit of evolution
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unde a exersat putin evolutia
13:31
on the Convolution program right before your eyes.
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in cadrul programului Convolution sub privirea noastra.
13:34
So now we've speeded up the time scales once again.
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Si am accelerat scara temporala din nou.
13:37
So the first steps of the story that I told you about
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Primii pasi ai povestii pe care tocmai v-am spus-o
13:39
took a billion years a piece.
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au durat un miliard de ani fiecare.
13:41
And the next steps,
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Si urmatorii pasi,
13:43
like nervous systems and brains,
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cum ar fi sistemele nervoase si creierele
13:45
took a few hundred million years.
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au durat cateva sute de milioane de ani.
13:47
Then the next steps, like language and so on,
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Asa ca urmatorii pasi, ca limba si altele,
13:50
took less than a million years.
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au durat mai putin de un milion de ani.
13:52
And these next steps, like electronics,
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Si acesti pasi care urmeaza precum electronica,
13:54
seem to be taking only a few decades.
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par sa dureze doar cateva decenii.
13:56
The process is feeding on itself
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Procesul se hraneste din sine insusi
13:58
and becoming, I guess, autocatalytic is the word for it --
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si devine, cred, autocatalitic este cuvantul corect--
14:01
when something reinforces its rate of change.
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cand ceva isi consolideaza modul de dezvoltare.
14:04
The more it changes, the faster it changes.
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Cu cat se schimba mai mult cu atat se schimba mai repede.
14:07
And I think that that's what we're seeing here in this explosion of curve.
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Si cred ca asta vedem aici in explozia acestei diagrame.
14:10
We're seeing this process feeding back on itself.
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Vedem cum acest proces se autodezvolta.
14:13
Now I design computers for a living,
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Eu proiectez computere ca meserie,
14:16
and I know that the mechanisms
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si stiu ca mecanismele
14:18
that I use to design computers
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pe care le folosesc pentru a proiecta computere
14:21
would be impossible
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nu ar putea exista
14:23
without recent advances in computers.
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fara descoperirile recente in materie de computere.
14:25
So right now, what I do
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Deci ce fac acum
14:27
is I design objects at such complexity
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este sa proiectez obiecte de asa o complexitate
14:30
that it's really impossible for me to design them in the traditional sense.
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incat este imposibil ca eu sa le proiectez in sensul traditional.
14:33
I don't know what every transistor in the connection machine does.
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Nu stiu ce face fiecare tranzistor al masinariei.
14:37
There are billions of them.
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Sunt miliarde.
14:39
Instead, what I do
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In schimb, ceea ce fac
14:41
and what the designers at Thinking Machines do
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si ce fac proiectantii de la Thinking Machines
14:44
is we think at some level of abstraction
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este sa gandim la un nivel abstract
14:46
and then we hand it to the machine
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si apoi lasam totul pe mana masinariei
14:48
and the machine takes it beyond what we could ever do,
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si aceasta duce totul la un punct mult mai indepartat decat am putea noi sa o facem vreodata,
14:51
much farther and faster than we could ever do.
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mai departe si mai repede decat am putea noi s-o facem.
14:54
And in fact, sometimes it takes it by methods
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Si de fapt uneori o face prin metode
14:56
that we don't quite even understand.
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pe care nu le prea intelegem.
14:59
One method that's particularly interesting
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O metoda deosebit de interesanta
15:01
that I've been using a lot lately
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pe care o folosesc mult in ultimul timp
15:04
is evolution itself.
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este insasi evolutia.
15:06
So what we do
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Ceea ce facem
15:08
is we put inside the machine
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este sa punem in interiorul masinariei
15:10
a process of evolution
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un proces de evolutie
15:12
that takes place on the microsecond time scale.
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care are loc in timpul unei microsecunde.
15:14
So for example,
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Deci spre exemplu,
15:16
in the most extreme cases,
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in cele mai extreme cazuri,
15:18
we can actually evolve a program
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putem evolua un program
15:20
by starting out with random sequences of instructions.
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incepand cu secvente de instructiuni aleatorii.
15:24
Say, "Computer, would you please make
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Sa spunem," Computer, vrei sa faci te rog
15:26
a hundred million random sequences of instructions.
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o suta de milioane de succesiuni de instructiuni aleatorii.
15:29
Now would you please run all of those random sequences of instructions,
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Acum te rog sa rulezi aceste instructiuni,
15:32
run all of those programs,
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aceste programe,
15:34
and pick out the ones that came closest to doing what I wanted."
365
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si sa le alegi pe cele care au fost cele mai apropiate de ceea ce cautam eu."
15:37
So in other words, I define what I wanted.
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Cu alte cuvinte, definesc ceea ce voiam.
15:39
Let's say I want to sort numbers,
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Sa spunem ca vreau sa sortez numere,
15:41
as a simple example I've done it with.
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ca un exemplu a cum am facut-o.
15:43
So find the programs that come closest to sorting numbers.
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Gaseste programele cele mai apropiate de sortarea numerelor.
15:46
So of course, random sequences of instructions
370
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Desigur, secventele de instructiuni aleatorii
15:49
are very unlikely to sort numbers,
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au putine sanse sa sorteze numere,
15:51
so none of them will really do it.
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deci niciuna n-o va face cu adevarat.
15:53
But one of them, by luck,
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Dar una dintre ele, cu putin noroc,
15:55
may put two numbers in the right order.
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ar putea pune doua numere in ordinea corecta.
15:57
And I say, "Computer,
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Si eu spun,"Computer,
15:59
would you please now take the 10 percent
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ia acum cele 10 la suta
16:02
of those random sequences that did the best job.
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din acele succesiuni aleatorii care au facut cea mai buna treaba.
16:04
Save those. Kill off the rest.
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Salveaza-le pe acelea. Distruge-le pe restul.
16:06
And now let's reproduce
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Si acum sa le reproducem
16:08
the ones that sorted numbers the best.
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pe cele care au sortat numerele cel mai bine.
16:10
And let's reproduce them by a process of recombination
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Si sa le reproducem printr-un proces de recombinare
16:13
analogous to sex."
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asemanator cu sexul."
16:15
Take two programs and they produce children
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Luam doua programe si ele produc copii
16:18
by exchanging their subroutines,
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facand schimb de subprograme,
16:20
and the children inherit the traits of the subroutines of the two programs.
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si copiii mostenesc trasaturile ambelor subprograme.
16:23
So I've got now a new generation of programs
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Deci am o noua generatie de programe
16:26
that are produced by combinations
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care sunt produse prin combinarea
16:28
of the programs that did a little bit better job.
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programelor care au facut o treaba putin mai buna.
16:30
Say, "Please repeat that process."
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Spunem,"Te rog repeta procesul."
16:32
Score them again.
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Sortam din nou.
16:34
Introduce some mutations perhaps.
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Introducem poate unele mutatii.
16:36
And try that again and do that for another generation.
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Si incercam asta din nou facand-o pentru alta generatie.
16:39
Well every one of those generations just takes a few milliseconds.
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Fiecare generatie necesita cateva milisecunde.
16:42
So I can do the equivalent
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Deci pot face echivalentul
16:44
of millions of years of evolution on that
395
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a milioane de ani de evolutie astfel
16:46
within the computer in a few minutes,
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pe un computer in cateva minute,
16:49
or in the complicated cases, in a few hours.
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sau in cazurile complicate, in cateva ore.
16:51
At the end of that, I end up with programs
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La sfarsit am programe
16:54
that are absolutely perfect at sorting numbers.
399
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care sunt absolut perfecte la sortarea numerelor.
16:56
In fact, they are programs that are much more efficient
400
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Sunt, in fapt, programe care sunt mult mai eficiente
16:59
than programs I could have ever written by hand.
401
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decat cele pe care as fi putut sa le scriu manual.
17:01
Now if I look at those programs,
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Daca ma uit la acele programe,
17:03
I can't tell you how they work.
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nu va pot spune cum functioneaza.
17:05
I've tried looking at them and telling you how they work.
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Am incercat sa le studiez si sa va spun cum functioneaza.
17:07
They're obscure, weird programs.
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Sunt programe obscure, ciudate.
17:09
But they do the job.
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Dar isi fac meseria.
17:11
And in fact, I know, I'm very confident that they do the job
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Si stiu, in fapt, sunt convins ca-si fac treaba
17:14
because they come from a line
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pentru ca provin dintr-o serie de
17:16
of hundreds of thousands of programs that did the job.
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sute de mii de programe care si-au facut treaba.
17:18
In fact, their life depended on doing the job.
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De fapt, viata lor depindea de infaptuirea scopului.
17:21
(Laughter)
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(hohote de ras)
17:26
I was riding in a 747
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Mergeam odata intr-un avion 747
17:28
with Marvin Minsky once,
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cu Marvin Minski,
17:30
and he pulls out this card and says, "Oh look. Look at this.
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si el scoate un card si spune," Priveste.
17:33
It says, 'This plane has hundreds of thousands of tiny parts
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Spune, " Acest avion are sute de mii de parti minuscule
17:37
working together to make you a safe flight.'
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care lucreaza impreuna pentru un zbor sigur."
17:41
Doesn't that make you feel confident?"
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Nu te face sa te simti increzator?"
17:43
(Laughter)
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(hohote de ras)
17:45
In fact, we know that the engineering process doesn't work very well
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Stim ca procesul tehnologic nu functioneaza foarte bine
17:48
when it gets complicated.
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cand devine complicat.
17:50
So we're beginning to depend on computers
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Deci incepem sa depindem de computere
17:52
to do a process that's very different than engineering.
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sa faca un procedeu foarte diferit de cel ingineresc.
17:56
And it lets us produce things of much more complexity
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Si ne permite sa producem lucruri mult mai complexe
17:59
than normal engineering lets us produce.
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decat ne permite ingineria normala.
18:01
And yet, we don't quite understand the options of it.
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Si totusi, nu intelegem pe deplin optiunile sale.
18:04
So in a sense, it's getting ahead of us.
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Deci pe de-o parte ne-o ia inainte.
18:06
We're now using those programs
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Acum folosim acele programe
18:08
to make much faster computers
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pentru a face computere mult mai rapide
18:10
so that we'll be able to run this process much faster.
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pentru a putea rula acest proces mult mai repede.
18:13
So it's feeding back on itself.
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Deci se auto dezvolta.
18:16
The thing is becoming faster
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Devine mai rapid
18:18
and that's why I think it seems so confusing.
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si de aceea cred ca produce confuzie.
18:20
Because all of these technologies are feeding back on themselves.
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Pentru ca toate aceste tehnologii se autodezvolta.
18:23
We're taking off.
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Decolam.
18:25
And what we are is we're at a point in time
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Si suntem intr-un punct in timp
18:28
which is analogous to when single-celled organisms
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analog cu acela in care organismele unicelulare
18:30
were turning into multi-celled organisms.
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se transformau in organisme multicelulare.
18:33
So we're the amoebas
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Suntem amibele
18:35
and we can't quite figure out what the hell this thing is we're creating.
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si nu ne prea putem da seama ce naiba cream.
18:38
We're right at that point of transition.
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Suntem in punctul de tranzitie.
18:40
But I think that there really is something coming along after us.
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Dar cred ca este cu adevarat ceva ce urmeaza dupa noi.
18:43
I think it's very haughty of us
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Cred ca este arogant din partea noastra
18:45
to think that we're the end product of evolution.
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sa credem ca suntem produsul finit al evolutiei.
18:48
And I think all of us here
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Si cred ca toti cei de aici
18:50
are a part of producing
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sunt o parte a producerii
18:52
whatever that next thing is.
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urmatorului lucru, indiferent care va fi acela.
18:54
So lunch is coming along,
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Se apropie pranzul,
18:56
and I think I will stop at that point,
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si cred ca ma voi opri in acest punct
18:58
before I get selected out.
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inainte sa fiu indepartat.
19:00
(Applause)
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(Aplauze)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Danny Hillis - Computer theoristInventor, scientist, author, engineer -- over his broad career, Danny Hillis has turned his ever-searching brain on an array of subjects, with surprising results.
Why you should listen
Danny Hillis is an inventor, scientist, author and engineer. While completing his doctorate at MIT, he pioneered the concept of parallel computers that is now the basis for graphics processors and cloud computing. He holds more than 300 US patents, covering parallel computers, disk arrays, forgery prevention methods, various electronic and mechanical devices, and the pinch-to-zoom display interface. He has recently been working on problems in medicine as well. He is also the designer of a 10,000-year mechanical clock, and he gave a TED Talk in 1994 that is practically prophetic. Throughout his career, Hillis has worked at places like Disney, and now MIT and Applied Invention, always looking for the next fascinating problem.
Danny Hillis | Speaker | TED.com