TED2005
Ray Kurzweil: The accelerating power of technology
Ray Kurzweil despre cum tehnologia ne va transforma
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Inventator, anteprenor şi vizionar, Ray Kurzweil explică in detalii abundente şi fundamentate de ce, până în 2020, vom fi înteles cum functionează creierul uman şi, după încă 10 ani, nanorobotii vor lua parte în funcţionarea conştiinţei.
Ray Kurzweil - Inventor, futurist
Ray Kurzweil is an engineer who has radically advanced the fields of speech, text and audio technology. He's revered for his dizzying -- yet convincing -- writing on the advance of technology, the limits of biology and the future of the human species. Full bio
Ray Kurzweil is an engineer who has radically advanced the fields of speech, text and audio technology. He's revered for his dizzying -- yet convincing -- writing on the advance of technology, the limits of biology and the future of the human species. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:24
Well, it's great to be here.
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Mă bucur că sunt aici.
00:25
We've heard a lot about the promise of technology, and the peril.
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Auzim multe despre promisiunile tehnologiei şi despre pericolele ce pot apărea
00:30
I've been quite interested in both.
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Am fost destul de intesesat de ambele aspecte.
00:32
If we could convert 0.03 percent
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Dacă am putea converti 0,03 la sută
00:36
of the sunlight that falls on the earth into energy,
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din lumina soarelui care ajunge pe Pământ în energie,
00:38
we could meet all of our projected needs for 2030.
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am putea satisface toate cererile prezise pentru 2030.
00:43
We can't do that today because solar panels are heavy,
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Nu putem face astăzi aşa ceva pentru că panourile solare sunt grele,
00:46
expensive and very inefficient.
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scumpe şi foarte ineficiente.
00:48
There are nano-engineered designs,
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Există design-uri ce folosesc nano-inginerie,
00:51
which at least have been analyzed theoretically,
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care cel puţin au fost analizate teoretic,
00:53
that show the potential to be very lightweight,
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care au calitatea de a fi foarte uşoare,
00:55
very inexpensive, very efficient,
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foarte ieftine, foarte eficiente,
00:57
and we'd be able to actually provide all of our energy needs in this renewable way.
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şi chiar am reuşi să satisfacem toată cererea de energie în acest mod regenerabil.
01:01
Nano-engineered fuel cells
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Pile de combustie folosind nano-inginerie
01:03
could provide the energy where it's needed.
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ar putea furniza energia acolo unde este nevoie.
01:06
That's a key trend, which is decentralization,
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Asta este o directie cheie, descentralizarea,
01:08
moving from centralized nuclear power plants and
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trecerea de la centrale nucleare mari şi
01:11
liquid natural gas tankers
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de la nave petroliere de gaze naturale lichefiate
01:13
to decentralized resources that are environmentally more friendly,
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la resurse descentralizate care sunt mai puţin periculoase pentru mediu,
01:17
a lot more efficient
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mult mai eficiente
01:20
and capable and safe from disruption.
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şi fiabile şi sigure împotriva accidentelor.
01:24
Bono spoke very eloquently,
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Bono a vorbit foarte elocvent,
01:26
that we have the tools, for the first time,
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că, pentru prima dată, avem uneltele necesare,
01:30
to address age-old problems of disease and poverty.
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să rezolvăm problemele eterne ale bolilor şi sărăciei.
01:34
Most regions of the world are moving in that direction.
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Majoritatea regiunilor lumii evoluează în acea direcţie.
01:38
In 1990, in East Asia and the Pacific region,
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În 1990, în Asia de Est şi în regiunea Pacificului,
01:42
there were 500 million people living in poverty --
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existau 500 de milioane de oameni trăind în sărăcie --
01:44
that number now is under 200 million.
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acel număr este acum sub 200 de milioane.
01:47
The World Bank projects by 2011, it will be under 20 million,
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Banca Mondială prezice că până în 2011, va fi sub 20 de milioane,
01:50
which is a reduction of 95 percent.
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ceea ce reprezintă o reducere de 95 la sută.
01:53
I did enjoy Bono's comment
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Mi-a plăcut comentariul lui Bono.
01:56
linking Haight-Ashbury to Silicon Valley.
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care lega Haight-Ashbury de Silicon Valley.
02:00
Being from the Massachusetts high-tech community myself,
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Făcând parte şi eu din comunitatea high-tech din Massachusetts
02:03
I'd point out that we were hippies also in the 1960s,
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aş sublinia că şi noi eram hipioţi în 1960,
02:08
although we hung around Harvard Square.
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Deşi ne plimbam prin jurul Pieţii Harvard.
02:11
But we do have the potential to overcome disease and poverty,
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Dar chiar avem potenţialul de a depăşi problema bolilor şi a sărăciei,
02:16
and I'm going to talk about those issues, if we have the will.
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şi vă voi vorbi despre aceste probleme, dacă avem voinţă.
02:19
Kevin Kelly talked about the acceleration of technology.
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Kevin Kelly a vorbit despre accelerarea tehnologiei.
02:22
That's been a strong interest of mine,
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Am fost foarte interesat de acest domeniu,
02:25
and a theme that I've developed for some 30 years.
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şi un subiect pe care l-am dezvoltat de 30 de ani.
02:28
I realized that my technologies had to make sense when I finished a project.
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Mi-am dat seama că tehnologiile mele trebuiau să aibă sens atunci când terminam proiectul.
02:33
That invariably, the world was a different place
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Invariabil, lumea era un loc diferit
02:36
when I would introduce a technology.
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când introduceam o tehnologie nouă.
02:38
And, I noticed that most inventions fail,
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Şi am remarcat că cele mai multe invenţii dau greş,
02:40
not because the R&D department can't get it to work --
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nu pentru că departamentul de Cercetare şi Dezvoltare nu-şi făcuse treaba --
02:43
if you look at most business plans, they will actually succeed
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dacă vă uitaţi peste cele mai multe planuri de afaceri, acestea ar reuşi de fapt
02:46
if given the opportunity to build what they say they're going to build --
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dacă li s-ar da oportunitatea de a construi ceea ce spun că ar vrea să construiască,
02:50
and 90 percent of those projects or more will fail, because the timing is wrong --
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şi 90 % din acele proiecte sau mai mult vor eşua, pentru că sincronizarea e greşită --
02:53
not all the enabling factors will be in place when they're needed.
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nu vor fi disponibili toţi factorii esenţiali lor atunci când va fi nevoie de ei.
02:56
So I began to be an ardent student of technology trends,
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Aşa că am început să fiu un student pasionat al tendinţelor tehnologice,
03:00
and track where technology would be at different points in time,
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şi să urmăresc unde va fi tehnologia la un moment dat în timp,
03:03
and began to build the mathematical models of that.
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şi am început să construiesc modele matematice pentru aşa ceva.
03:06
It's kind of taken on a life of its own.
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Aproape a început să evolueze de la sine,
03:08
I've got a group of 10 people that work with me to gather data
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am un grup de 10 oameni care lucrează cu mine în adunarea datelor
03:11
on key measures of technology in many different areas, and we build models.
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privind indicatori cheie ai tehnologiei din multe arii diferite, şi construim modele.
03:16
And you'll hear people say, well, we can't predict the future.
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Şi veţi auzi oameni zicând, păi, nu putem prezice viitorul.
03:19
And if you ask me,
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Şi dacă mă întrebaţi pe mine,
03:21
will the price of Google be higher or lower than it is today three years from now,
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va fi preţul lui Google mai mare sau mai mic decât este astăzi -- peste trei ani --
03:24
that's very hard to say.
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asta e foarte greu de zis.
03:26
Will WiMax CDMA G3
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Va fi WiMax CDMA G3
03:29
be the wireless standard three years from now? That's hard to say.
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standartul wireless în trei ani de acum? E greu de spus.
03:31
But if you ask me, what will it cost
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Dar dacă mă întrebaţi: cât va costa
03:33
for one MIPS of computing in 2010,
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un MIPS(milion de instructiuni pe secundă) de procesare in 2010,
03:36
or the cost to sequence a base pair of DNA in 2012,
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sau costul secvenţionării unei baze de ADN in 2012,
03:39
or the cost of sending a megabyte of data wirelessly in 2014,
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sau costul trimiterii unui megabyte de date prin wireless în 2014,
03:43
it turns out that those are very predictable.
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se dovedeşte că aceste lucruri sunt foarte predictibile.
03:46
There are remarkably smooth exponential curves
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Sunt curbe exponenţiale remarcabil de bine conturate
03:48
that govern price performance, capacity, bandwidth.
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care guvernează performanţa şi preţul, capacitatea, viteza de transfer.
03:51
And I'm going to show you a small sample of this,
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Şi vă voi arăta un scurt exemplu,
03:53
but there's really a theoretical reason
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pentru că, practic există un motiv teoretic
03:55
why technology develops in an exponential fashion.
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datorită căruia tehnologia se dezvoltă exponenţial.
04:00
And a lot of people, when they think about the future, think about it linearly.
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Şi, o mulţime de oameni, când se gândesc la viitor, îl privesc într-un mod liniar.
04:02
They think they're going to continue
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Ei consideră că vor continua
04:04
to develop a problem
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să se confrunte cu probleme
04:06
or address a problem using today's tools,
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sau să abordeze o anumită problemă folosind instrumentele de azi,
04:09
at today's pace of progress,
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la ritmul de astăzi al progresului,
04:11
and fail to take into consideration this exponential growth.
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şi nu reuşesc să ia în considerare această creştere exponenţială
04:15
The Genome Project was a controversial project in 1990.
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Proiectul genomului era un proiect controversat în 1990.
04:18
We had our best Ph.D. students,
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Aveam cei mai buni studenţi la doctorat,
04:20
our most advanced equipment around the world,
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cel mai avansat echipament din lume,
04:22
we got 1/10,000th of the project done,
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şi aveam 1/10.000 din proiect realizat,
04:24
so how're we going to get this done in 15 years?
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deci cum vom ajunge sa terminam in 15 ani?
04:26
And 10 years into the project,
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Şi după 10 ani de proiect,
04:30
the skeptics were still going strong -- says, "You're two-thirds through this project,
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scepticii încă îşi susţineau cauza -- spunând, "Sunteţi la două treimi din acest proiect,
04:32
and you've managed to only sequence
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şi aţi secvenţionat numai
04:34
a very tiny percentage of the whole genome."
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un mic procent din întregul genom."
04:37
But it's the nature of exponential growth
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Dar asta este natura creşterii exponenţiale:
04:39
that once it reaches the knee of the curve, it explodes.
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după ce trece de zona critică a curbei, explodează.
04:41
Most of the project was done in the last
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Cea mai mare parte a proiectului a fost făcută in ultimii
04:43
few years of the project.
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câţiva ani ai proiectului.
04:45
It took us 15 years to sequence HIV --
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Ne-a luat 15 ani să secventionam HIV-ul --
04:47
we sequenced SARS in 31 days.
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am secventionat SARS in 31 de zile.
04:49
So we are gaining the potential to overcome these problems.
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Deci, câştigăm capacitatea de a depăşi aceste probleme.
04:53
I'm going to show you just a few examples
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Vă voi arăta doar câteva exemple
04:55
of how pervasive this phenomena is.
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Referitor la cât de universal este acest fenomen.
04:58
The actual paradigm-shift rate, the rate of adopting new ideas,
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Rata reală de schimbare a paradigmei, rata adoptării ideilor noi,
05:02
is doubling every decade, according to our models.
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se dublează în fiecare deceniu, conform modelelor noastre.
05:05
These are all logarithmic graphs,
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Acestea sunt toate grafice logaritmice,
05:08
so as you go up the levels it represents, generally multiplying by factor of 10 or 100.
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în aşa fel încât, pe măsură ce urci de la un nivel la altul, înmulţeşti cu 10 sau 100.
05:11
It took us half a century to adopt the telephone,
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Ne-a luat jumătate de secol să adoptăm telefonul,
05:14
the first virtual-reality technology.
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prima tehnologie de realitate virtuală.
05:17
Cell phones were adopted in about eight years.
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Telefoanele mobile au fost adoptate în aproape 8 ani.
05:19
If you put different communication technologies
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Dacă pui diferite tehnologii de comunicare
05:22
on this logarithmic graph,
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pe acest grafic logaritmic,
05:24
television, radio, telephone
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televiziunea, radioul, telefonul
05:26
were adopted in decades.
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au fost adoptate in decenii.
05:28
Recent technologies -- like the PC, the web, cell phones --
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Tehnologiile recente -- precum PC-ul, intenetul, telefoanele mobile --
05:31
were under a decade.
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în mai puţin de un deceniu.
05:33
Now this is an interesting chart,
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Aceasta este o diagramă interesantă,
05:35
and this really gets at the fundamental reason why
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si aceasta dezvăluie într-adevar motivul fundamental pentru care
05:37
an evolutionary process -- and both biology and technology are evolutionary processes --
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un proces evoluţionist -- şi atât biologia cât şi tehnologia sunt procese evoluţioniste --
05:41
accelerate.
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accelerează.
05:43
They work through interaction -- they create a capability,
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Ele lucrează prin interecţiune -- crează o aptitudine
05:46
and then it uses that capability to bring on the next stage.
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şi apoi folosesc acea aptitudine pentru a crea nivelul următor.
05:49
So the first step in biological evolution,
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Deci, primul pas in evoluţia biologică,
05:52
the evolution of DNA -- actually it was RNA came first --
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evoluţia ADN-ului -- de fapt ARN-ul a venit primul --
05:54
took billions of years,
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a luat miliarde de ani,
05:56
but then evolution used that information-processing backbone
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dar apoi evoluţia a folosit acest stalp de procesare a informaţiei
05:59
to bring on the next stage.
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pentru a aduce nivelul următor.
06:01
So the Cambrian Explosion, when all the body plans of the animals were evolved,
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Deci Explozia Cambiană, când toate planurile corpurilor animalelor au evoluat,
06:04
took only 10 million years. It was 200 times faster.
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a durat numai 10 milioane de ani. A fost de 200 ori mai rapid.
06:08
And then evolution used those body plans
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Şi apoi evoluţia a folosit acele planuri de corpuri
06:10
to evolve higher cognitive functions,
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pentru a evolua funcţii cognitive superioare,
06:12
and biological evolution kept accelerating.
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si evoluţia biologică a continuat să accelereze.
06:14
It's an inherent nature of an evolutionary process.
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Asta este însăşi natura unui proces evoluţionist.
06:17
So Homo sapiens, the first technology-creating species,
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Deci Homo sapiens, prima specie creatoare de tehnologie,
06:20
the species that combined a cognitive function
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specia care combina o functie cognitivă
06:22
with an opposable appendage --
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cu un apendice opozabil --
06:24
and by the way, chimpanzees don't really have a very good opposable thumb --
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si apropo, cimpanzeii nu prea au un deget opozabil foarte bun --
06:28
so we could actually manipulate our environment with a power grip
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aşa că de fapt putem manipula mediul nostru cu puterea unei strânsori
06:30
and fine motor coordination,
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şi o excelentă coordonare motorie,
06:32
and use our mental models to actually change the world
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şi prin folosirea modelelor noastre mentale pentru a schimba lumea
06:34
and bring on technology.
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şi pentru a crea tehnologie.
06:36
But anyway, the evolution of our species took hundreds of thousands of years,
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Dar oricum, evoluţia speciei noastre a luat sute de mii de ani,
06:39
and then working through interaction,
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ai apoi lucrând prin interacţiune,
06:41
evolution used, essentially,
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evoluţia a folosit, in primul rând,
06:43
the technology-creating species to bring on the next stage,
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tehnologia creatoare de specii pentru a crea nivelul următor,
06:46
which were the first steps in technological evolution.
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care erau primii paşi în evoluţia tehnologică.
06:49
And the first step took tens of thousands of years --
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Şi primul pas a luat zeci de mii de ani --
06:52
stone tools, fire, the wheel -- kept accelerating.
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unelete de piatră, foc, roata -- au continuat accelerarea.
06:55
We always used then the latest generation of technology
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Întodeauna am folosit apoi tehnologie de ultima generaţie
06:57
to create the next generation.
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pentru a crea generaţia următoare.
06:59
Printing press took a century to be adopted;
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Presa tiparită a durat un secol până când să fie adoptată,
07:01
the first computers were designed pen-on-paper -- now we use computers.
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primele calcule erau făcute cu pixul pe hârtie-- acum folosim computere
07:05
And we've had a continual acceleration of this process.
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Şi am avut o accelerare continuă a acestui proces.
07:08
Now by the way, if you look at this on a linear graph, it looks like everything has just happened,
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Acum apropo, dacă vă uitaţi la acest lucru pe un grafic liniar, pare că totul tocmai s-a întâmplat,
07:11
but some observer says, "Well, Kurzweil just put points on this graph
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dar unii observatori afirmă, "Ei bine, Kurzweil a pus doar puncte pe acest grafic
07:17
that fall on that straight line."
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care curg pe acea linie dreaptă."
07:19
So, I took 15 different lists from key thinkers,
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Deci, am luat 15 liste diferite de la gânditori cheie,
07:22
like the Encyclopedia Britannica, the Museum of Natural History, Carl Sagan's Cosmic Calendar
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precum Enciclopedia Britanica, Muzeul de Istorie Naturala, Calendarul Cosmic al lui Carl Sagan
07:26
on the same -- and these people were not trying to make my point;
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privind aceleaşi aspecte -- și acei oameni nu încercau să demonstreze punctul meu de vedere,
07:29
these were just lists in reference works,
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acelea erau doar liste în lucrări de referinţă.
07:31
and I think that's what they thought the key events were
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Şi cred că de aceea credeau că evenimentele cheie erau
07:34
in biological evolution and technological evolution.
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în evolutia biologică şi în evoluţia tehnologică.
07:37
And again, it forms the same straight line. You have a little bit of thickening in the line
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Şi iar, formează aceeaşi linie dreaptă. Ai un pic de îngrosare în linie
07:40
because people do have disagreements, what the key points are,
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pentru că oamenii au dezacorduri, care sunt punctele cheie,
07:43
there's differences of opinion when agriculture started,
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există diferenţe de opinie atunci când agricultura a început,
07:45
or how long the Cambrian Explosion took.
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sau când -- cât timp a durat Explozia Cambriană.
07:48
But you see a very clear trend.
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Dar vezi o tendinţă foarte clară.
07:50
There's a basic, profound acceleration of this evolutionary process.
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Există o acceleratie fundamentală, profundă a acestui proces evoluţionist.
07:55
Information technologies double their capacity, price performance, bandwidth,
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Tehnologiile informaţionale îşi dublează capacitatea, performanţa pretului, mărimea de bandă,
08:00
every year.
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în fiecare an.
08:02
And that's a very profound explosion of exponential growth.
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Şi asta este o explozie foarte profundă a creşterii exponenţiale.
08:06
A personal experience, when I was at MIT --
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O experienţă personală, când am fost la MIT --
08:08
computer taking up about the size of this room,
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calculatorul ocupând aproximativ mărimea acestei camere,
08:10
less powerful than the computer in your cell phone.
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mai puţin puternic decât computerul din telefonul mobil.
08:15
But Moore's Law, which is very often identified with this exponential growth,
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Dar Legea lui Moore, care este foarte des identificată cu creşterea exponentială,
08:19
is just one example of many, because it's basically
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este doar un exemplu din multe, pentru că este în esenţă
08:21
a property of the evolutionary process of technology.
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o proprietate a procesului evoluţionist al tehnologiei.
08:26
I put 49 famous computers on this logarithmic graph --
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Dacă noi -- Am pus 49 de computere faimoase pe acest grafic logaritmic --
08:29
by the way, a straight line on a logarithmic graph is exponential growth --
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apropo, o linie dreaptă pe un grafic logaritmic, este o creştere exponentială --
08:33
that's another exponential.
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este o altă exponentială.
08:35
It took us three years to double our price performance of computing in 1900,
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Ne-a luat trei ani să dublăm performanţa preţului de calcul în 1900,
08:38
two years in the middle; we're now doubling it every one year.
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doi ani la mijloc, acum o dublăm în fiecare an.
08:42
And that's exponential growth through five different paradigms.
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Aceasta este creştere exponentială prin 5 paradigme diferite.
08:45
Moore's Law was just the last part of that,
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Legea lui Moore a fost numai ultima parte din aceasta,
08:47
where we were shrinking transistors on an integrated circuit,
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pe un circuit integrat, cănd micşoram tranzistorii,
08:50
but we had electro-mechanical calculators,
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dar aveam calculatoare electro-mecanice,
08:53
relay-based computers that cracked the German Enigma Code,
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computere bazate pe relee care au spart Codul Enigma German,
08:55
vacuum tubes in the 1950s predicted the election of Eisenhower,
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tuburile vidate in 1950 au prezis alegerea lui Eisenhower,
08:59
discreet transistors used in the first space flights
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tranzistoare discrete folosite in primele zboruri in spatiu
09:02
and then Moore's Law.
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si Legea lui Moore.
09:04
Every time one paradigm ran out of steam,
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De fiecare data cand o paradigma epuizeza aburul,
09:06
another paradigm came out of left field to continue the exponential growth.
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alta paradigma iese din un domeniu radical pentru a continua cresterea exponentiala.
09:09
They were shrinking vacuum tubes, making them smaller and smaller.
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Micsorau tuburi cu vid, facandu-le din ce in ce mai mici.
09:12
That hit a wall. They couldn't shrink them and keep the vacuum.
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Aceasta s-a lovit de un perete. Nu le mai puteau micşora astfel încât să menţină vidul.
09:15
Whole different paradigm -- transistors came out of the woodwork.
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Intreaga diferita paradigma -- tranzistorii au iesit au iesit din dulap.
09:17
In fact, when we see the end of the line for a particular paradigm,
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De fapt, ce vedem ca sfarsitul liniei pentru o paradigma particulara,
09:20
it creates research pressure to create the next paradigm.
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creaza presiune de cercetare pentru a crea urmatoarea paradigma.
09:24
And because we've been predicting the end of Moore's Law
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Si pentru ca am prezis sfarsitul Legii lui Moore
09:27
for quite a long time -- the first prediction said 2002, until now it says 2022.
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de un timp destul de indelungat -- prima predictie spunea 2002, pana ce acum, se spune 2022.
09:30
But by the teen years,
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Dar in 10 ani,
09:33
the features of transistors will be a few atoms in width,
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proprietatile de constructie ale tranzistorilor vor fi de cativa atomi in latime,
09:36
and we won't be able to shrink them any more.
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si nu vom mai fi capabili sa-i micsoram mai mult.
09:38
That'll be the end of Moore's Law, but it won't be the end of
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Aceasta va fi sfarsitul Legii lui Moore, dar nu va fi sfarsitul
09:41
the exponential growth of computing, because chips are flat.
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cresterii exponentiale a computerelor, pentru ca cipurile sunt plate.
09:43
We live in a three-dimensional world; we might as well use the third dimension.
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Traim intr-o lume tridimensionala, am putea foarte bine sa folosim a treia dimensiune.
09:46
We will go into the third dimension
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Vom merge in a treia dimensiune.
09:48
and there's been tremendous progress, just in the last few years,
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a fost un progres grozav, numai in ultimii cativa ani,
09:51
of getting three-dimensional, self-organizing molecular circuits to work.
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de a obtine tridimensionale, auto-organizante circuite moleculare sa lucreze.
09:55
We'll have those ready well before Moore's Law runs out of steam.
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Le vom avea pe acestea gata cu mult inainte ca Legea lui Moore sa ramana fara abur.
10:02
Supercomputers -- same thing.
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Supercomputere -- acelasi lucru.
10:05
Processor performance on Intel chips,
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Performanta procesoarelor pe cipurile Intel,
10:08
the average price of a transistor --
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pretul mediu al unui tranzistor --
10:11
1968, you could buy one transistor for a dollar.
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1968, puteai cumpara un tranzistor cu un dollar.
10:14
You could buy 10 million in 2002.
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Puteai cumpara 10 milioane in 2002.
10:17
It's pretty remarkable how smooth
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Este destul de remarcabil cat de constant
10:20
an exponential process that is.
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un proces exponential este.
10:22
I mean, you'd think this is the result of some tabletop experiment,
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Vreau sa spun, ai crede ca acesta este rezultatul unui experiment din lumea jocurilor de masa
10:26
but this is the result of worldwide chaotic behavior --
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dar acesta este rezultatul unui comportament haotic mondial --
10:29
countries accusing each other of dumping products,
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tarile acuzandu-se una pe alta de dumpingul produselor,
10:31
IPOs, bankruptcies, marketing programs.
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,IPO-uri falimente, programe de marketing.
10:33
You would think it would be a very erratic process,
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Ai crede ca ar fi un proces foarte dezordonat,
10:36
and you have a very smooth
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si ai un foarte constant
10:38
outcome of this chaotic process.
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rezultat din acest proces haotic.
10:40
Just as we can't predict
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La fel cum nu putem prezice
10:42
what one molecule in a gas will do --
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ce o molecula intr-un gaz va face --
10:44
it's hopeless to predict a single molecule --
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este imposibil sa anticipam o singura molecula --
10:47
yet we can predict the properties of the whole gas,
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totusi putem prezice proprietățile întregului gaz
10:49
using thermodynamics, very accurately.
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foarte exact, folosind termodinamica.
10:52
It's the same thing here. We can't predict any particular project,
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Este acelasi lucru aici. Nu putem prezice un proiect singular,
10:55
but the result of this whole worldwide,
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dar rezultatul acestei activități mondiale
10:57
chaotic, unpredictable activity of competition
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haotice, imprevizible de competitie
11:02
and the evolutionary process of technology is very predictable.
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și procesul evoluţionist al tehnologiei este foarte previzibil.
11:05
And we can predict these trends far into the future.
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Si putem prezice aceste tendinte departe in viitor.
11:10
Unlike Gertrude Stein's roses,
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Spre deosebire de trandafirii lui Gertrude Stein,
11:12
it's not the case that a transistor is a transistor.
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nu este cazul ca un tranzistor este un tranzistor.
11:14
As we make them smaller and less expensive,
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Pe masura ce îi facem mai mici si mai ieftini,
11:16
the electrons have less distance to travel.
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electronii au o distanță mai mica de parcurs.
11:18
They're faster, so you've got exponential growth in the speed of transistors,
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Ei sunt mai rapizi, deci ai crestere exponentiala in viteza tranzistorilor,
11:22
so the cost of a cycle of one transistor
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deci costul unui ciclu al unui tranzistor
11:26
has been coming down with a halving rate of 1.1 years.
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sa redus cu o rata de injumatatire de 1.1 ani.
11:29
You add other forms of innovation and processor design,
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Adaugi alte forme de inovatie si proiectare a procesorului
11:32
you get a doubling of price performance of computing every one year.
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obti o dublare a performantei pretului de calcul odata la un an.
11:36
And that's basically deflation --
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Si aceasta este practic deflatie --
11:39
50 percent deflation.
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50 la suta deflatie.
11:41
And it's not just computers. I mean, it's true of DNA sequencing;
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Si nu este vorba doar de calculatoare. Adica, este adevarat cu privire la secventierea ADN-ului,
11:44
it's true of brain scanning;
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este adevarat cu privire la scanarea creierului,
11:46
it's true of the World Wide Web. I mean, anything that we can quantify,
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este adevarat despre Internet. Adica despre totul pe care il putem cuantifica,
11:48
we have hundreds of different measurements
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aveam sute de diferite masuratori
11:51
of different, information-related measurements --
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de diferite, masuratori legate de informatie --
11:54
capacity, adoption rates --
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capacitate, ratele de adoptare --
11:56
and they basically double every 12, 13, 15 months,
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si se dubleaza practic odata la 12, 13, 15 luni,
11:59
depending on what you're looking at.
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in functie de ceea ce privesti.
12:01
In terms of price performance, that's a 40 to 50 percent deflation rate.
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In termeni de performanta a pretului, este un 50 -- 40 la 50 la suta rata a deflatiei.
12:06
And economists have actually started worrying about that.
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Si economistii au inceput de fapt se se ingrijoreze despre aceasta.
12:08
We had deflation during the Depression,
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Am avut deflatie in timpul Recesiunii,
12:10
but that was collapse of the money supply,
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Dar aceasta a fost o colapsare a rezervei de bani,
12:12
collapse of consumer confidence, a completely different phenomena.
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o prabusire a increderii consumatorului, un fenomen cu totul diferit.
12:15
This is due to greater productivity,
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Acest lucru se datoreaza unei productivitati mai mari,
12:18
but the economist says, "But there's no way you're going to be able to keep up with that.
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dar economistii spun, "Dar nu se poate sa fi in stare sa o tii in ritmul acesta.
12:20
If you have 50 percent deflation, people may increase their volume
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Daca ai 50 la suta deflatie, oamenii ar putea creste volumul
12:23
30, 40 percent, but they won't keep up with it."
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30, 40 la suta, dar ei nu vor putea tine pasul cu ea.
12:25
But what we're actually seeing is that
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Dar ceeea ce vedem adevar este ca
12:27
we actually more than keep up with it.
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reusim mai mult decat sa tinem pasul cu el
12:29
We've had 28 percent per year compounded growth in dollars
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am avut 28 la suta pe an cresteri compuse, in dollari
12:32
in information technology over the last 50 years.
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in tehnologia informatiei in ultimii 50 de ani.
12:35
I mean, people didn't build iPods for 10,000 dollars 10 years ago.
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Adica, oameni nu au construit iPod-uri pentru 10,000 de dolari acum 10 ani.
12:39
As the price performance makes new applications feasible,
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In vreme ce performata pretului face noi aplicatii fezabile,
12:42
new applications come to the market.
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noi aplicatii vin pe piata.
12:44
And this is a very widespread phenomena.
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Si acesta este un fenomen foarte raspandit.
12:47
Magnetic data storage --
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Date stocate magnetic --
12:49
that's not Moore's Law, it's shrinking magnetic spots,
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nu este Legea lui Moore, este micsorarea punctelor magnetice,
12:52
different engineers, different companies, same exponential process.
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ingineri diferiti, companii diferite, acelasi proces exponential.
12:56
A key revolution is that we're understanding our own biology
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O revolutie cheie este ca intelegem propria noastra biologie
13:00
in these information terms.
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in acesti termeni informatici.
13:02
We're understanding the software programs
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Intelegem programele software
13:04
that make our body run.
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care fac corpul nostru sa lucreze.
13:06
These were evolved in very different times --
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Acestea au evoluat in vremuri foarte diferite --
13:08
we'd like to actually change those programs.
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am dori de fapt sa putem schimba aceste programe.
13:10
One little software program, called the fat insulin receptor gene,
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Micul nostru program, numit gena receptorului gras de insulina,
13:12
basically says, "Hold onto every calorie,
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practic spune, "retine fiecare calorie,
13:14
because the next hunting season may not work out so well."
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pentru ca urmatorul sezon de vanatoare ar putea sa numai dea rezultate asa de bune."
13:18
That was in the interests of the species tens of thousands of years ago.
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Aceasta a fost in interesul speciilor acum zeci de mii de ani.
13:21
We'd like to actually turn that program off.
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am dori de fapt sa oprim acel program.
13:24
They tried that in animals, and these mice ate ravenously
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Au incercat aceasta in animale, si acesti soareci au mancat vorace
13:27
and remained slim and got the health benefits of being slim.
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si au ramas slabi si au obtinut beneficiile sanatoase ale slabiri
13:29
They didn't get diabetes; they didn't get heart disease;
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Nu au facut diabet, nu au facut boli de inima,
13:32
they lived 20 percent longer; they got the health benefits of caloric restriction
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au trait cu 20 la suta mai mult, au obtinut beneficiile sanatoase ale restrictiei calorice
13:35
without the restriction.
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fara restrictie.
13:37
Four or five pharmaceutical companies have noticed this,
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Patru sau cinci companii farmaceutice au observat acesta,
13:40
felt that would be
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si au simtit ca ar fi
13:43
interesting drug for the human market,
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un medicament interesant pentru piata umana,
13:46
and that's just one of the 30,000 genes
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si acesta este doar una din cele 30,000 de gene
13:48
that affect our biochemistry.
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care afecteaza biochimia noastra.
13:51
We were evolved in an era where it wasn't in the interests of people
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Noi am evoluat intr-o era unde nu era in interesul unei persoane
13:54
at the age of most people at this conference, like myself,
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de varsta cu majoritatea oamenilor din acesta conferinta, ca si mine,
13:57
to live much longer, because we were using up the precious resources
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sa traiasca mai mult, pentru ca foloseam resursele pretioase
14:01
which were better deployed towards the children
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care erau mai bine orientate spre copii
14:02
and those caring for them.
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si catre aceia carora le pasa de ei.
14:04
So, life -- long lifespans --
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Deci, viata -- durate mari de viata --
14:06
like, that is to say, much more than 30 --
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ca, sa spunem, mult mai mult de 30 --
14:08
weren't selected for,
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nu au fost selectate pentru,
14:11
but we are learning to actually manipulate
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dar invatam sa manipulam efectiv
14:14
and change these software programs
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si sa schimbam aceste programe software
14:16
through the biotechnology revolution.
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prin revolutia biotehnologica.
14:18
For example, we can inhibit genes now with RNA interference.
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De exemplu, putem acum inhiba gene cu interventia ARN -ului.
14:22
There are exciting new forms of gene therapy
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Acestea sunt excitante noi forme de terapie genetica
14:24
that overcome the problem of placing the genetic material
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care depasesc problema plasarii materialului genetic
14:26
in the right place on the chromosome.
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pe locul corect in cromozom.
14:28
There's actually a -- for the first time now,
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Este de fapt un -- pentru prima data acum,
14:31
something going to human trials, that actually cures pulmonary hypertension --
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ceva merge in studii umane,care efectiv vindeca hipertensiunea pulmonara --
14:34
a fatal disease -- using gene therapy.
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o boala fatala -- folosind terapie genetica.
14:37
So we'll have not just designer babies, but designer baby boomers.
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Deci vom avea nu numai copii proiectati, dar o explozie de nasteri de copii proiectati.
14:40
And this technology is also accelerating.
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Si aceasta tehnologie accelereaza deasemenea.
14:43
It cost 10 dollars per base pair in 1990,
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Costa 10 dolari perechea de baze in 1990,
14:46
then a penny in 2000.
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apoi un penny in 2000.
14:48
It's now under a 10th of a cent.
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acum este sub o zecime dintr-un cent.
14:50
The amount of genetic data --
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Cantitatea de date genetice --
14:52
basically this shows that smooth exponential growth
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practic acesta este -- acesta arata cu cresterea exponentiala constanta
14:55
doubled every year,
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sa dublat in fiecare an,
14:57
enabling the genome project to be completed.
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permitand ca proiectul genomului sa fie completat.
15:00
Another major revolution: the communications revolution.
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Alta revolutie majora, revolutia comunicatiilor.
15:03
The price performance, bandwidth, capacity of communications measured many different ways;
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Performanta pretului, latimea de banda in internet, capacitatea de comunicatii masurata in multe moduri diferite;
15:08
wired, wireless is growing exponentially.
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cu fir, wireless creste exponential.
15:11
The Internet has been doubling in power and continues to,
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Internetul sa dublat in putere si continua sa o faca,
15:14
measured many different ways.
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masurat in diferite moduri.
15:16
This is based on the number of hosts.
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Acesta este bazata pe un numar de gazde.
15:18
Miniaturization -- we're shrinking the size of technology
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Miniaturizarea -- micsoram marimea tehnologiei
15:20
at an exponential rate,
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la o rata exponentiala,
15:22
both wired and wireless.
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atat cu fir si fara fir,
15:24
These are some designs from Eric Drexler's book --
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Acestea sunt unele schite din cartea lui Eric Drexler --
15:28
which we're now showing are feasible
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pe care le aratam acum ca sunt fezabile
15:30
with super-computing simulations,
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cu simulari super-computerizate,
15:32
where actually there are scientists building
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unde efectiv sunt savanti care construiesc
15:34
molecule-scale robots.
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roboti la scara moleculara.
15:36
One has one that actually walks with a surprisingly human-like gait,
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Cineva are unul care merge de fapt cu un surprinzator mers uman,
15:38
that's built out of molecules.
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care este construit din molecule.
15:41
There are little machines doing things in experimental bases.
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Sunt mici masini care fac lucruri in baze experimentale.
15:45
The most exciting opportunity
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Cea mai interesantă oportunitate
15:48
is actually to go inside the human body
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este de a pătrunde efectiv în corpul uman
15:50
and perform therapeutic and diagnostic functions.
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si de a efectua funcţii terapeutice şi diagnostice.
15:53
And this is less futuristic than it may sound.
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Şi asta este mai puţin futuristic decât sună.
15:55
These things have already been done in animals.
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Aceste lucruri au fost făcute deja în testele pe animale.
15:57
There's one nano-engineered device that cures type 1 diabetes. It's blood cell-sized.
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Există un dispozitiv cu nanoinginerie care vindecă diabetul de tip 1. Este de marinea unei celule sangvine.
16:01
They put tens of thousands of these
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Se injectează zeci de mii de astfel de nanostructuri
16:03
in the blood cell -- they tried this in rats --
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în sânge -- au încercat asta în şobolani --
16:05
it lets insulin out in a controlled fashion,
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lasă insulina să iasă într-un mod controlat,
16:07
and actually cures type 1 diabetes.
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şi efectiv vindecă diabetul de tip 1.
16:09
What you're watching is a design
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Ceea ce urmăriti este un proiect
16:12
of a robotic red blood cell,
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al unei celule roşii robotice,
16:14
and it does bring up the issue that our biology
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şi asta ridică problema că biologia noastră
16:16
is actually very sub-optimal,
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este de fapt foarte sub-optimă,
16:18
even though it's remarkable in its intricacy.
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cu toate că este remarcabilă în complexitatea sa.
16:21
Once we understand its principles of operation,
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Odata ce întelegem principiile ei de operaţie,
16:24
and the pace with which we are reverse-engineering biology is accelerating,
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si ritmul cu care proiectăm o inginerie asemănătoare biologiei accelerează,
16:28
we can actually design these things to be
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putem efectiv proiecta aceste lucruri să fie
16:30
thousands of times more capable.
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de mii de ori mai capabile.
16:32
An analysis of this respirocyte, designed by Rob Freitas,
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O analiza a acestei respirocite, proiectate de Rob Freitas,
16:37
indicates if you replace 10 percent of your red blood cells with these robotic versions,
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indică faptul că dacă inlocuiesti 10 la suta din celulele tale roşii cu aceste versiuni robotice,
16:40
you could do an Olympic sprint for 15 minutes without taking a breath.
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ai putea face un sprint Olimpic timp de 15 minute fără a lua o gură de aer.
16:43
You could sit at the bottom of your pool for four hours --
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Ai putea sta pe fundul piscinei tale timp de patru ore --
16:46
so, "Honey, I'm in the pool," will take on a whole new meaning.
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-- deci, "Dragă, sunt in piscină," va avea un complet alt sens.
16:50
It will be interesting to see what we do in our Olympic trials.
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Va fi interesant de văzut ce vom face în probele noatre Olimpice.
16:52
Presumably we'll ban them,
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Probabil le vom interzice,
16:54
but then we'll have the specter of teenagers in their high schools gyms
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dar apoi vom avea un spectru de adolescenti in sălile de sport din liceu
16:56
routinely out-performing the Olympic athletes.
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depaşind în mod frecvent atleţii Olimpici.
17:01
Freitas has a design for a robotic white blood cell.
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Freitas are un plan pentru o celula albă sangvină.
17:04
These are 2020-circa scenarios,
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Acestea sunt scenarii circa 2020,
17:08
but they're not as futuristic as it may sound.
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dar nu sunt atat de futuristice pe cât sună.
17:10
There are four major conferences on building blood cell-sized devices;
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Sunt patru mari conferinţe asupra construirii dispozitivelor de marimea unor celule sangvine,
17:14
there are many experiments in animals.
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sunt multe experimente pe animale.
17:16
There's actually one going into human trial,
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Este de fapt una care intra în studii clinice umane,
17:18
so this is feasible technology.
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deci aceasta este o tehnologie fiabilă.
17:22
If we come back to our exponential growth of computing,
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Daca revenim la cresterea noastra exponentiala a procesării,
17:24
1,000 dollars of computing is now somewhere between an insect and a mouse brain.
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1,000 de dolari de calcule este acum undeva între o insectă şi un creier de şoarece.
17:27
It will intersect human intelligence
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Va intersecta inteligenţa umană
17:30
in terms of capacity in the 2020s,
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în ceea ce priveşte capacitatea - în 2020,
17:33
but that'll be the hardware side of the equation.
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dar asta ar fi partea hardware a ecuaţiei.
17:35
Where will we get the software?
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De unde vom lua software-ul?
17:37
Well, it turns out we can see inside the human brain,
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Ei bine, se pare ca putem vedea in interiorul creierului uman,
17:39
and in fact not surprisingly,
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si de fapt nesurprinzator,
17:41
the spatial and temporal resolution of brain scanning is doubling every year.
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rezolutiile spatiale si temporale ale scanarilor creierului se dubleaza in fiecare an.
17:45
And with the new generation of scanning tools,
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Si cu noua generatie de instrumente de scanare,
17:47
for the first time we can actually see
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pentru prima dată putem vedea într-adevar
17:49
individual inter-neural fibers
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fibre individuale inter-neuronale
17:51
and see them processing and signaling in real time --
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si le putem vedea procesând şi transmiţând în timp real
17:54
but then the question is, OK, we can get this data now,
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şi -- dar apoi intrebarea este, OK, putem înregistra aceste date acum,
17:56
but can we understand it?
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dar le putem intelege?
17:58
Doug Hofstadter wonders, well, maybe our intelligence
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Doug Hofstadter se mira, ei bine, poate inteligenta noastra
18:01
just isn't great enough to understand our intelligence,
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nu este chiar suficienta pentru a intelege inteligenta noastra,
18:04
and if we were smarter, well, then our brains would be that much more complicated,
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si daca am fi mai destepti, ei bine, atunci creierele noastre ar fi mult mai complicate,
18:07
and we'd never catch up to it.
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si niciodata nu am prinde-o din urma.
18:10
It turns out that we can understand it.
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Se pare, ca o putem intelege.
18:13
This is a block diagram of
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Acesta este o diagrama bloc a
18:16
a model and simulation of the human auditory cortex
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unui model si a unei simulari a cortexului auditiv uman
18:20
that actually works quite well --
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care de fapt funcţionează destul de bine --
18:22
in applying psychoacoustic tests, gets very similar results to human auditory perception.
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în aplicarea testelor psihoacoustice, primeste rezultate foarte similare cu perceptia auditivă umană
18:26
There's another simulation of the cerebellum --
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Exista o alta simulare a cerebelului --
18:29
that's more than half the neurons in the brain --
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acesta este mai mult de jumatate din neuronii din creier
18:31
again, works very similarly to human skill formation.
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iar, functioneaza foarte similar cu formarea abilitatilor umane
18:35
This is at an early stage, but you can show
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Acesta este într-un stadiu timpuriu, dar putem arata
18:38
with the exponential growth of the amount of information about the brain
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cu cresterea exponentiala a cantitatii de informatie despre creier
18:41
and the exponential improvement
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si imbunatatirea exponentiala
18:43
in the resolution of brain scanning,
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in rezolutia scanarilor cerebrale,
18:45
we will succeed in reverse-engineering the human brain
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vom reuşi să reproducem tehnologic creierul uman
18:48
by the 2020s.
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prin 2020.
18:50
We've already had very good models and simulation of about 15 regions
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Deja am avut modele foarte bune si simulari a aproximativ 15 regiuni
18:53
out of the several hundred.
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din cateva sute.
18:56
All of this is driving
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Toate acestea conduc exponentialitatea --
18:58
exponentially growing economic progress.
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cresterea exponentiala a progreselor economice.
19:00
We've had productivity go from 30 dollars to 150 dollars per hour
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Am avut o crestere a productivitatii de la 30 de dolari la 150 de dolari pe ora
19:05
of labor in the last 50 years.
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de munca in ultimii 50 de ani.
19:07
E-commerce has been growing exponentially. It's now a trillion dollars.
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Comertul electronic a cescut exponential. valoreaza acum un trilion de dolari.
19:10
You might wonder, well, wasn't there a boom and a bust?
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S-ar putea sa va intrebati, pai bine, nu a fost o crestere si spoi o descrestere?
19:12
That was strictly a capital-markets phenomena.
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Acesta a fost strict un fenomen a pietelor de capital.
19:14
Wall Street noticed that this was a revolutionary technology, which it was,
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Wall Street a observat ca acesta a fost o tehnologie revolutionara, ceea ce a si fost,
19:18
but then six months later, when it hadn't revolutionized all business models,
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dar apoi sase luni mai tarziu, cand nu a revolutionat toate modelele de afaceri,
19:21
they figured, well, that was wrong,
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au gandit, pai bine, a fost gresit.
19:23
and then we had this bust.
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si apoi am avut descresterea.
19:26
All right, this is a technology
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De acord, este o tehnologie
19:28
that we put together using some of the technologies we're involved in.
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pe care o elaboram folosind unele din tehnologiile in care suntem implicati.
19:31
This will be a routine feature in a cell phone.
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Acesta va fi o caracteristica de rutina intr-un telefon mobil.
19:35
It would be able to translate from one language to another.
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Va fi capabil sa traduca dintr-o limba in alta.
19:47
So let me just end with a couple of scenarios.
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Deci, lasati-ma sa inchei cu cateva scenarii.
19:49
By 2010 computers will disappear.
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prin 2010 computerele vor disparea.
19:53
They'll be so small, they'll be embedded in our clothing, in our environment.
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Ele vor fi atat de mici, încât vor fi încorporate în îmbracamintea noastra, in mediul nostru.
19:56
Images will be written directly to our retina,
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Imaginile vor fi scrise direct pe retina noastra,
19:58
providing full-immersion virtual reality,
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furnizand o imersiune completă în realitatea virtuală,
20:00
augmented real reality. We'll be interacting with virtual personalities.
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realitate reala augumentata. Vom interactiona cu personalitati virtuale.
20:04
But if we go to 2029, we really have the full maturity of these trends,
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Dar daca vom merge pana in 2029, vom avea cu adevarat o completa maturitate a acestor tendinte,
20:08
and you have to appreciate how many turns of the screw
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si trebuie sa apreciati cate intoarceri de surub
20:11
in terms of generations of technology, which are getting faster and faster, we'll have at that point.
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in termeni de generatii de tehnologie care devin din ce in ce mai rapide vom avea atunci.
20:15
I mean, we will have two-to-the-25th-power
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Vreau sa spun, ca vom avea 2 la puterea 25
20:17
greater price performance, capacity and bandwidth
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o mai mare performanta a pretului, capacitatii si latimii de banda a internetului
20:20
of these technologies, which is pretty phenomenal.
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a acestor tehnologii, care sunt destul de fenomenale.
20:22
It'll be millions of times more powerful than it is today.
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Vor fi de milioane de ori mai puternice decat sunt astazi.
20:24
We'll have completed the reverse-engineering of the human brain,
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Vom fi terminat reproducerea tehnologică a creierul uman,
20:27
1,000 dollars of computing will be far more powerful
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procesarea -- procesarea in valoare de 100 de dolari va fi mult mai puternică
20:30
than the human brain in terms of basic raw capacity.
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decat creierul uman in termeni de capacitate de bază.
20:34
Computers will combine
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Computerele vor combina
20:36
the subtle pan-recognition powers
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subtilele puteri de pan-recunoastere
20:38
of human intelligence with ways in which machines are already superior,
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ale inteligentei umane cu moduri in care masinile sunt deja superioare,
20:41
in terms of doing analytic thinking,
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in termeni de gandire analitica,
20:43
remembering billions of facts accurately.
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reamintindu-ne bilioane de date corect.
20:45
Machines can share their knowledge very quickly.
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Masinile pot imparti cunoasterea lor foarte rapid,
20:47
But it's not just an alien invasion of intelligent machines.
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dar nu este doar o invazie extraterestra de masini inteligente.
20:52
We are going to merge with our technology.
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Ne vom contopi cu tehnologia noastra.
20:54
These nano-bots I mentioned
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Acesti nano-roboti pe care i-am mentionat
20:56
will first be used for medical and health applications:
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vor fi folositi prima data pentru aplicatii medicale si de sanatate:
21:00
cleaning up the environment, providing powerful fuel cells
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curatarea mediului, furnizarea combustibilului -- celule de combustibil puternice
21:03
and widely distributed decentralized solar panels and so on in the environment.
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panouri solare decentralizate distribuite pe larg si asa mai departe in mediu.
21:08
But they'll also go inside our brain,
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Dar se vor duce de asemenea si in interiorul creierului nostru,
21:10
interact with our biological neurons.
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vor interactiona cu neuronii nostri biologici.
21:12
We've demonstrated the key principles of being able to do this.
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Am demonstrat principiile cheie pentru a fi capabili sa facem aceasta.
21:15
So, for example,
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Deci, de exemplu,
21:17
full-immersion virtual reality from within the nervous system,
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realitate virtuala complet imersiva din interiorul sistemului nostru nervos,
21:19
the nano-bots shut down the signals coming from your real senses,
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nano-robotii intrerup semnalele care vin de la simturile tale reale,
21:22
replace them with the signals that your brain would be receiving
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le inlocuiesc cu semnalele pe care creierul tau le-ar primi
21:25
if you were in the virtual environment,
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daca ai fi in mediul virtual,
21:27
and then it'll feel like you're in that virtual environment.
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Si apoi vei simti ca si cum ai fi in acel mediu virtual
21:29
You can go there with other people, have any kind of experience
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Te poti duce acolo cu alti alti oameni si avea orice tip de experienta
21:31
with anyone involving all of the senses.
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cu oricine implicand toate simturile.
21:34
"Experience beamers," I call them, will put their whole flow of sensory experiences
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Le numesc 'Fascicule de experienta," vor pune intregul lor flux de experiente senzoriale
21:37
in the neurological correlates of their emotions out on the Internet.
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in asocierile neurologice ale emotiilor lor pe internet.
21:40
You can plug in and experience what it's like to be someone else.
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Te poti conecta si experimenta cum este sa fi altcineva.
21:43
But most importantly,
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Dar cel mai important,
21:45
it'll be a tremendous expansion
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va fi o uimitoare expansiune
21:47
of human intelligence through this direct merger with our technology,
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a inteligentei umane prin acesta directa contopire cu tehnologia noastra,
21:51
which in some sense we're doing already.
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si care in unele privinte se intampla deja.
21:53
We routinely do intellectual feats
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Noi de obicei facem performante intelectuale
21:55
that would be impossible without our technology.
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care ar fi imposibile fara tehnologia noastra.
21:57
Human life expectancy is expanding. It was 37 in 1800,
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Speranta de viata a oamenilor se mareste. Era 37 in 1800,
22:00
and with this sort of biotechnology, nano-technology revolutions,
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si cu acest tip de biotehnologie, revolutii nano tehnologice,
22:05
this will move up very rapidly
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acesta va urca foarte rapid
22:07
in the years ahead.
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in anii urmartori.
22:09
My main message is that progress in technology
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Principalul meu mesaj in acel progres in tehnologie
22:13
is exponential, not linear.
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este exponential, nu liniar.
22:16
Many -- even scientists -- assume a linear model,
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Multi -- chiar savanti -- presupun un model liniar,
22:20
so they'll say, "Oh, it'll be hundreds of years
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deci vor spune, "Vor fi sute de ani
22:22
before we have self-replicating nano-technology assembly
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inainte sa avem nanotehnologie cu asamblare auto-replicanta
22:25
or artificial intelligence."
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sau inteligenta artificiala."
22:27
If you really look at the power of exponential growth,
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Daca te uiti intr-adevar la puterea cresterii exponentiale,
22:30
you'll see that these things are pretty soon at hand.
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vei vedea ca aceste lucruri vor fi destul de curand la indemana.
22:33
And information technology is increasingly encompassing
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Si tehnologia informatiei cuprinde din ce in ce mai mult
22:36
all of our lives, from our music to our manufacturing
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toate vietile noastre, de la muzica noastra la productia noastra
22:40
to our biology to our energy to materials.
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la biologia noastra, la energia noastra la materiale.
22:44
We'll be able to manufacture almost anything we need in the 2020s,
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Vom fi capabili sa producem aproape orice avem nevoie in 2020.
22:47
from information, in very inexpensive raw materials,
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de la informatie, in materiale brute foarte ieftine,
22:49
using nano-technology.
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folosind nanotehnologie.
22:52
These are very powerful technologies.
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Acestea sunt tehnologii foarte puternice.
22:54
They both empower our promise and our peril.
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Ambele ne apropie de visele noastre dar şi autodistrugerea noastră.
22:58
So we have to have the will to apply them to the right problems.
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Deci trebuie să avem voinţa de a le aplica problemelor potrivite.
23:01
Thank you very much.
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Vă multumesc foarte mult
23:02
(Applause)
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(Aplauze)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Ray Kurzweil - Inventor, futuristRay Kurzweil is an engineer who has radically advanced the fields of speech, text and audio technology. He's revered for his dizzying -- yet convincing -- writing on the advance of technology, the limits of biology and the future of the human species.
Why you should listen
Inventor, entrepreneur, visionary, Ray Kurzweil's accomplishments read as a startling series of firsts -- a litany of technological breakthroughs we've come to take for granted. Kurzweil invented the first optical character recognition (OCR) software for transforming the written word into data, the first print-to-speech software for the blind, the first text-to-speech synthesizer, and the first music synthesizer capable of recreating the grand piano and other orchestral instruments, and the first commercially marketed large-vocabulary speech recognition.
Yet his impact as a futurist and philosopher is no less significant. In his best-selling books, which include How to Create a Mind, The Age of Spiritual Machines, The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Kurzweil depicts in detail a portrait of the human condition over the next few decades, as accelerating technologies forever blur the line between human and machine.
In 2009, he unveiled Singularity University, an institution that aims to "assemble, educate and inspire leaders who strive to understand and facilitate the development of exponentially advancing technologies." He is a Director of Engineering at Google, where he heads up a team developing machine intelligence and natural language comprehension.
Ray Kurzweil | Speaker | TED.com